NFL DFS: Stix Picks for Divisional Weekend

237

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed a big first weekend of NFL Playoff DFS and ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Divisional Round slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only 4 games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

1. Patrick Mahomes – No surprise here. This is a must-win game for Kansas City and they’re not going to mess around. Assuming this game stays relatively close, Mahomes and the Chiefs’ offense will rely heavily on their passing game to move the football against Cleveland’s 25th ranked pass defense (DVOA).
   
   Mahomes has one of the highest AETY Model projections for a Quarterback all season. He’s easily my top option for cash and GPP builds.
   
2. Baker Mayfield – The total in this game is 57 points… the next highest total on the full-weekend slate is five points lower at 52. I want all of the exposure I can to this Chiefs/Browns game and I love what Mayfield opens up from a roster build perspective. Granted, he has nowhere near the upside of a Mahomes, Allen, or Jackson, but he’s also $2K cheaper than all of them on DraftKings and over $1K cheaper on FanDuel.
   
   I’ll likely only use Baker Mayfield in GPP formats.
   
   Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Tom Brady

Running Backs

1. Nick Chubb – Exposure to the Kansas City / Cleveland game is going to be the theme of this article. Stefanski and this league-leading running scheme are going to run Chubb into the ground on Sunday and I’ll want all of the exposure I can afford.
   
   Kansas City ranks 31st in run defense DVOA and again, Cleveland is one of the most efficient running teams in the NFL. Kareem Hunt at a discount is also in a great spot, but I’m all aboard the Chubb train.
   
2. Cam Akers – Just like last week, lock in Cam Akers. He’s likely the only running back on this slate that will sniff 22+ touches and he’s priced under $6K on DraftKings and right at $7K on FanDuel. Green Bay’s defense has been quite stingy of late but they can certainly be carved up via the run… especially with a Sean McVay outside-zone.
   
3. Devin Singletary – Absolutely gross and makes me want to not play NFL DFS this weekend, but Singletary is simply way too cheap for a starting running back with zero talent behind him on the depth chart pushing for playing time. Singletary is a lock for me in cash games, but I think a GPP fade is warranted.
   
   Having said that, I have no problem if you just take the value with Singletary in every build, just don’t expect a lot. I’d much rather pivot to Hunt in GPP.

Honorable Mention: JK Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara

Wide Receivers

1. Tyreek Hill – Tyreek is back and 100% healthy for a matchup against a below average Cleveland secondary. Mahomes and company will scheme Tyreek open and he leads all wide receivers with the shortest odds to score (-200)… and no, I didn’t forget about Davante Adams. Get exposure to Kansas City and Cleveland.
   
2. Stefon Diggs – Too much volume on a weekly basis to ignore. With the minimal threat of Buffalo beating Baltimore via the run, I do anticipate Baltimore to bracket Diggs and keep him to an average game at best, he just has too much volume in their offense.
   
3. Michael Thomas – His price is criminally low. Load him up as we likely cannot afford Alvin Kamara. Thomas is going to be a priority for me for my Saints’ exposure piece.
   
4. Jarvis Landry / Marquise Brown – They’re WR1s priced in the mid-$5K range on DraftKings. Take the layup when offered. I prefer Landry by a nose to game-stack the highest total game on the slate, but not many have the ceiling Hollywood Brown offers.
   
   Value: With Sammy Watkins OUT, Mecole Hardman is my interesting punt play of the weekend. DeMarcus Robinson also in-play, but I prefer Hardman’s route-running, speed, and the cheaper price-tag.
   
   Honorable Mention: Davante Adams, Antonio Brown, Chris Godwin
   

Tight Ends

1. Travis Kelce
   
2. Mark Andrews – Excellent matchup against Buffalo who consistently struggle to cover the tight-end, even with Matt Milano back for Buffalo. Hell, Jack Doyle just went nuts on them, lol.
   
3. Austin Hooper – Is this a double tight-end week of Kelce/Hooper game-stacks? It very well has my attention at the moment. Hooper is very affordable on both sites and lead the Browns in targets last week in addition to what already was a rising target share over the past month since returning from injury.
   
   Hooper is in an excellent spot against Kansas City in a gamescript where Cleveland will likely be chasing points. I love this Cleveland running game, but also want exposure to their red-zone threats (Hooper and Landry).

Good luck to all this weekend!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!