Tag:

Aaron Judge

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks & Stacks: Farewell, Wednesday

5 years ago

written by

The 9/25 DFS Hitting Picks is the final Wednesday edition with a main slate filled with strong offensive matchups. Load up here, follow the rest of the WDS crew and count your long green.

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9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Yan Gomes, WAS at PHI

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,600)

Phillies starter Drew Smyly has been owned by Gomes: in 14 at-bats against the Nats’ backstop, Smyly has allowed six hits, including a pair of homers. It also helps that Gomes has homered in each of the past two games and has a .913 OPS during an unsung September that has seen Gomes hit half of his 12 homers this season. Oh: Smyly comes in with a 2.59 HR/9 rate, so there’s that.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

Ryan O’Hearn, KC vs. ATL

DK ($3,200), FD ($2,300)

Consider this a punt pick with upside. With the Braves pushing Mike Soroka to Sunday’s regular season finale, O’Hearn will face swingman Josh Tomlin. O’Hearn has homered four times this month and sports a .545 slugging percentage. He also has a 41.7% hard contact rate and has quietly raised his walk rate to 10.8%. Certainly, there are better options available, but if you’re looking for cheap power, then O’Hearn’s a good place to start.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Garrett Hampson, COL at SF

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,800)

Whoa…where did the pop come from? Hampson has homered four times over the past week and has five dingers in a .371/.435/.677 month of swinging. He homered twice in Tuesday’s win at the Giants and is on a run in which Hampson has scored at least once in nine of his last 10 games. His batting average says .253, but Hampson’s September run has boosted his BABIP to .326. Hampson’s fly ball rate of 38.7% has paid off well this month, so why not jump in the fun before it’s too late?

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Jose Ramirez, CLE at CWS

DK ($5,000), FD ($3,600)

In perhaps the biggest surprise since John Cena showed up unexpectedly in the 2008 Royal Rumble, Ramirez made a loud return to the lineup on Tuesday with a pair of homers and seven RBI. Remember when it was thought he’d be lost for the season? Ah, modern medicine. Ramirez had an August OPS of 1.077 before his hand injury and while a repeat of Tuesday is too much in asking, White Sox starter Ross Detwiler does have a 2.73 HR/9 rate. Just pointing it out…

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS vs. PHI

DK ($5,400), FD ($4,400)

Don’t count on Turner to ease up now that the Nationals have clinched a playoff spot. Fourteen of Turner’s 31 hits this month have been for extra bases (nine doubles, five homers), which have been the foundation of his .908 September OPS. Turner’s 7.8% walk rate is modest, but he’s sporting a .347 BABIP while pushing his hard contact rate above average at 37.8%.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yasiel Puig, CLE at CWS

DK ($4,500), FD ($3,200)

Puig has yet to homer this month, but has still put on a master class as to why most pundits have been enamored with his skills. Along with driving in 11 runs, Puig has gone .392/.471/.500 this month while adding 14 runs scored. His fly ball rate of 40.4% is a career best, yet Puig is also spraying line drives at a 21.2% clip. He’s also hitting to all fields with consistency and also gets to feast on Ross Detwiler.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Austin Hays, BAL at TOR

DK ($4,300), FD ($3,000)

Over the past two weeks, Hays has teamed with Trey Mancini to give the O’s a potent duo. He’s batted .320/.382/.640 with four homers and 12 RBI in that span. Hays has also struck out just 14.8% of the time and has caused damage despite a 28% hard contact rate. Even with the small sample size of 55 at-bats, Hays’ .291 Isolated Power will carry well this evening at hitter-friendly Rodgers Centre.

9/25 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY at TB

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,500)

Judge’s bat appears ready for an October run. He’s gone .289/.438/.737 with five homers, seven RBI and 13 runs scored. He’s struggled against the Rays this season (.194 batting average), but let’s throw that out the window. Judge has pushed his Isolated Power to .260, which is helped by the fact his hard contact rate is a very, very loud 53.4%. That rate does more than knock down stop signs.

9/25 DFS Hitting Stacks

9/25 Hitting Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians: Puig and Ramirez is a great pairing. I’d also consider Roberto Perez ($2800 FD) and Franmil Reyes ($3100 FD) as good bargains to add, yet would consider an all-in by going with Francisco Lindor ($5300 DK).

9/25 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: Mariners starter Yusei Kikuchi has been hammered for 12 runs (10 earned) and 20 hits over 14 innings of work against Houston. I’d build with Alex Bregman ($5200 DK) or Yordan Alvarez ($5500 DK). Aledmys Diaz ($4100 DK) and Abraham Toro ($3600 DK) are value plays if they’re in the lineup.

9/25 Hitting Stack to Consider: Washington Nationals: You can go beyond Gomes and Turner. Howie Kendrick ($2700 FD) and Anthony Rendon ($4200) make for good additions if going all-in.

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5 years ago 0 comments

9/19 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Twins Will Get You Wins

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’ve got a split slate for 9/19 DFS: DraftKings has a six-game slate that starts at 6:35, while FanDuel is excluding the Angels-Yankees again and starting a four-gamer at 7:05. We’re focusing on three stacks and just a couple contrarian builds, as well as our usual buffet of hitters at every position. Let’s get rolling, because the Yanks and Twins will get you wins!

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9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks ofthe Day

Minnesota Twins vs. Mike Montgomery

The Twins were a total dud on Wednesday night against the fullWhite Sox bullpen, scoring just one run on three hits across nine boringinnings. Today is a great day for a rebound, as the Royals left-hander can beexposed by hitters from both sides of the plate. Montgomery has been a reversesplits pitcher this season, yielding an amusing .443/.464/.709 slash toopposing LHBs. Over the course of his whole career, the disparity isn’t as noticeable.I like all the Twins here, since they brutalize lefties (.287/.353/.523 slash,.363 wOBA and a 127 wRC+) and will be starting my stacks with Eddie Rosario,Nelson Cruz and Mitch Garver (who’s an insane $5,600 on DK). Add in Miguel Sanoor C.J. Cron on FD and Jorge Polanco on DK.

New York Yankees vs. Andrew Heaney (DK)

I was little concerned about the Yankees rolling out an unorthodoxlineup with the division clinched, but Tampa came back and beat the Dodgers! They’llbe hungry for their 100^th win of the season and thirsty forchampagne on their home turf, but they’ll be facing a left-hander who’s pitchedquite well in 2019. Their salaries are a little low because of the matchup, butHeaney isn’t enough to keep me off them. I’ll be using a lot of Mike Clevinger withMasahiro Tanaka/Kyle Gibson/Drew Verhagen, so there will be plenty of combosthat will allow me to stack D.J. LeMahieu ($4,600), Gleyber Torres ($4,700), AaronJudge ($4,500), Gio Urshela ($4,300) and Luke Voit ($4,400) though I’ll only begrabbing a few shares of Giancarlo Stanton at his outrageous price ($5,400)

Toronto Blue Jays at Gabriel Ynoa

I said Tuesday the Blue Jays would be a sneaky stack, and CavanBiggio responded by hitting for the cycle. They’re not as sneaky this timearound, since they battled with Baltimore last night as the teams combined for21 runs. Ynoa is 1-8 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.40 WHIP, and he’s given up 25 homeruns in just 100.1 IP. All the usual suspects make sense here, with the 1-5hitters as the priority bats.

9/19 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Cleveland Indians vs. Daniel Norris/Drew VerHagen

St. Louis Cardinals at Kyle Hendricks (contrarian)

9/19 DFS HittingCatcher

Austin Romine, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($3,600)

Pay $2,000 more for Mitch Garver on DK if you want, but if youwant some cheap exposure to the Yankees, blend Romine into your Yankees stacks.He’s slashing .281/.312/.438 this season and sports an impressive .172 ISO vs.LHPsthis season. Romine isn’t the most exciting option, but we need to save a littleit of salary somewhere, and if we’re not paying way up or Garver, Romine makessense.

9/19 DFS Hitting FirstBaseman

Rowdy Tellez or JustinSmoak, TOR at BAL

DK (both$3,900) FD ($2,600/$2,700)

Since Tellez sat on Tuesday and ruined all my work recommendinghim, I’ll bring you up to speed: Rowdy scored three runs on Wednesday and isstill destroying right-handed pitching (.209 ISO this season). It’s usuallyeither him or Justin Smoak in the lineup, and I like them both in Baltimore’sbandbox. Smoak boasts a .231 ISO vs. RHPs in 2019.

9/19 DFS Hitting SecondBaseman

Cavan Biggio, TOR at BAL

DK ($5.300) FD($3,900)

Biggio hit for the cycle on Tuesday and is the one Jays bat I wantin all my GPP lineups. I touted is speed and power abilities and he respondedby doing what five-tool platers do – mashing and slashing. Biggio is 14-for-29 overhis last seven games with 133 DK points over that span (19 FPPG). And his .112wRC+ this season is in the top 10 among 2B.

9/19 DFS Hitting ThirdBaseman

D.J. LeMahieu, NYY vs. LAA

(DK $4,600)

LeMahieu is having an MVP-caliber season for the Yankeeswith a wRC+ of 136 and a torrid slash line of .329/.378/.515. He’s ben their steadiestplayer and has flashed impressive power (.186 ISO) against both LHPs and RHPs. His.402 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in Yankee Stadium is tops on the team, and he’ll be inmost of my lineups tonight.

9/19 DFSHitting Shortstop

Gleyber Torres, NYY vs. LAA

DK ($4,700)

Lindor was a complete disappointment Tuesday, so I’ll be goingback to him in about 2/10 lineups, but the rest of them will have shares of Torresat SS or 2B, where he’s also eligible. Torres has a .255 ISO, .353 OBP, .369wOBA and 132 wRC+ vs. LHPs in 2019, and he’s now hitting in the heart of the Yankeeslineup.

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9/19 DFS HittingOutfielders

Eddie Rosario, MIN vs. KC

DK ($4,800) FD($3,200)

You can’t keep a great hitter down for long, and Rosario(.281/.313/.453 slash vs. LHPs in 2019) is a solid GPP play because he’ll onlybe in about half of the Twins stacks because he’s a lefty bat against a southpaw– a great opportunity against a guy like Montgomery. The Royals starter mightget pulled for a righty after he gets lit up by these Twins, and then your shortsightedDFS opponents will be kicking themselves for not having more exposure to Rosario’s.378 xwOBA against RHPs since 2018.

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. LAA

DK($4,500)

It’s hard to believe this price on Judge, who went deep again onWednesday, but it’s something I’ll be taking advantage of in cash games andGPPS alike. Judge brutalizes lefties, with a .461 wOBA in 120 PA this season,including .347/.467/.663 slash and 8 homers. He hits the ball as hard as anyonewho’s ever played the game, as he sits in the 100^th percentile forExit Velocity and Hard Hit %. Get him in there – he’s primed for a monster day.

Marcell Ozuna, STL vs. CHC

DK ($4,200) FD($3,700)

Ozuna has been relatively quiet lately, so he’s really cheap. Healso has .382 xwOBA this year and has been a much better road hitter this seasonwith a .262/.336/.519 slash and 15 of his 28 HRs in away games. Ozuna also ranksin the 93th percentile for Exit Velocity and 98^th percentile forHard Hit % — and makes for a nice contrarian play vs. a capable hurler in Kyle Hendricks.

Additional options:

C: Reese McGuire ($3,900 DK, $2,800 FD), Mitch Garver ($5,600 DK,$3,000 FD)

1B: Carlos Santana ($4,700 DK, $3,800 FD), C.J. Cron ($3,900 DK, $2,800FD)

3B: Gio Urshela ($4,300 DK) Vladimir Guerrero Jr, ($4,100 DK,$2,900 FD)

2B: Jonathan Villar ($4,800 DK, $3,600 FD), Luis Arraez ($4,200DK, $2,700 FD)

SS: Bo Bichette ($5,400 DK, $3,900 FD), Jorge Polance ($4,800 DK, $3,300FD)

OF: Whit Merrifield ($4,500 DK, $3,300 FD), Anthony Santander ($3,900 DK, $3,100 FD), Trey Mancini ($4,900 DK, $3,800 FD), Brett Gardner ($4,300 DK), Randal Grichuk ($4,500 DK, $3,000 FD), Dexter Fowler ($3,600 DK, $2,900 FD)

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/9 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Indians and Yanks

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We’re looking at an eight-game schedule here and that’s the perfect amount for DFS. What’s strange here is the fact that we have four of these games being played in extreme pitcher’s parks. That makes things very strange with a Yankees-Red Sox matchup also on the schedule and it will take some unique lineup construction in order to take down a tourney. With that in mind, let’s get into our best 9/9 DFS Hitting Plays and Stacks.

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9/9 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

Cleveland Indians vs. Patrick Sandoval

This was a pretty easy pick, as Cleveland is easily the best stack on the board. The reason for that is because they get to face Patrick Sandoval, who’s pitching to a 4.91 ERA and 1.36 WHIP this season. What really makes the Indians scary is the fact that they added two potent righties at the trade deadline, making this one of the best lineups in the league against left-handers. That’s why Vegas has given them an implied run total north of five in this stellar spot and why they are my favorite stack on the board.

New York Yankees vs. Eduardo Rodriguez

It’s strange to stack a team against a guy like Rodriguez but it’s tough to fade the Yankees anytime they face a lefty. What more do I need to say than Aaron Judge, Gary Sanchez, Edwin Encarnacion, Gleyber Torres, D.J. Lemahieuand Luke Voit. Those are just the righties that they’ll be sending out there against E-Rod and that’s bad news no matter who the pitcher is. It’s also crystal clear by the fact that New York ranks fourth in both SLG and OPS against left-handed pitching this season. All of that doesn’t even take into consideration that they’re hitting in Fenway Park, which is one of the best hitting environments in the Majors. Dating back to 2016, Rodriguez has a 4.80 ERA and 1.42 WHIP against this potent Yankees team.

9/9 DFS Hitting Sneaky Stack of the Day

New York Mets vs. Merrill Kelly

While the Mets have a modest team total south of five, they appear to be one of the best stacks on the board. The reason for that is because they face Merrill Kelly and his 4.69 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. He’s been worse recently, pitching to a 7.36 ERA and 1.71 WHIP over his last eight starts. This offense is a little better than most people might think too, with the Mets ranked 11^th in OBP, 13^th in OPS and 12^th in xwOBA.

9/9 DFS Hitting Catcher

Wilson Ramos, NYM vs. ARI

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,500)

Ramos is always one of the first catchers that I consider and I truly don’t understand why these sites keep his price so low. We’re talking about a guy with a .297 AVG, .347 OBP, .466 SLG and .813 OPS dating back to 2016. That simply makes him one of the best hitting-catchers in the game and he comes into this matchup absolutely raking. Over his last 29 games, Ramos is hitting .404 en route to a .980 OPS.

9/9 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Luke Voit, NYY at BOS

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,400)

Voit is really the only Yankee who’s a great value on these DFS sites and that’s why we’re going to ride him as our primary first basemen. It’s truly amazing what this dude has done since putting on the pinstripes, accruing a .287 AVG, .390 OBP, .533 SLG and .923 OPS since joining NY last season. What makes that even more intriguing are his absurd splits, with Voit generating a .380 OBP and .950 OPS against lefties since the beginning of last season. While it’s a small sample size, we can’t overlook the fact that Voit is 4-for-7 against E-Rod with three extra-base hits as well.

9/9 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Robinson Cano, NYM vs. ARI

DK ($3,900) FD ($2,900)

Those ugly Kelly statistics from the stacks write-up definitely adds to Cano’s value here, as he’s looked like a different player since returning from the IL. Over his last seven games. Cano is hitting .565 while collecting four doubles and two homers in that span. That’s huge for a guy who’s really only had success against right-handers this season, posting a .282 AVG, .498 SLG and .818 OPS against them. Those numbers are still below his impressive career averages and we’ll look for him to continue this resurgence against a struggling pitcher like Kelly.

9/9 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Alex Bregman, HOU vs. OAK

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,400)

In such a short slate, it’s going to be tough to fade someone as hot as Bregman. Over his last 32 games, Bregman is hitting .411 en route to a .490 OBP, .766 SLG and 1.256 OPS. That’s really scary for a regression candidate like Mike Fiers, as his 3.75 ERA is way off of his 5.22 xFIP. Vegas knows this though and that’s why the Astros are projected for more than five runs.

DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE at LAA

DK ($5,000) FD ($4,200)

If we’re stacking the Indians, that means we simply can’t fade Lindor. The numbers from Sandoval are obviously impactful to Frankie’s value but it’s the recent form that really draws us into using the smiling shortstop. Over his last 51 games, Lindor has accrued a .307 AVG, .592 SLG and .941 OPS. Those stellar numbers don’t even consider his speed, with Lindor being one of the AL leaders with 20 steals. The splits are simply the icing on the cake, with Lindor generating a .377 OBP and .895 OPS against left-handers dating back to 2017.

9/9 DFS Hitting Outfielders

Franmil Reyes, CLE at LAA

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,300)

Reyes might be my favorite outfield play of the day. The main reason why is because he should be batting cleanup against Sandoval. That’s really no surprise when you see that Reyes’has a .520 SLG and .271 ISO this season. Those are simply some of the best power numbers in the game, as he’s been even better recently. Over his last 15 games, Reyes has a .321 AVG, .419 OBP, .698 SLG and 1.117 OPS. Getting to face a lefty is simply a bonus, with Reyes accumulating a .306 AVG, .383 OBP, .552 SLG and .935 OPS against them since the beginning of last season.

Corey Dickerson, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,000)

If you’ve been following me this season, you know how much I adore Dickerson. This masher is simply one of the best hitters in baseball when he faces righties and it’s time people start treating him as such. For his career, CD has a .243 ISO and .363 wOBA with the platoon advantage in his favor. His splits are even more absurd this season, with Dickerson generating a .360 OBP, .588 SLG, .273 ISO, .382 wOBA and .948 OPS against right-handers. That’s horrifying for Mike Foltynewicz in a hitter’s haven like Citizen’s Bank Park, with Folty pitching to a 5.28 ERA and 1.41 WHIP this season.

Aaron Judge, NYY at BOS

DK ($4,600) FD ($4,400)

Don’t look now but Judge is starting to heat up. Over his last 19 games, Judge is hitting .299 while providing a .675 SLG and 1.017 OPS. The thing that really makes him attractive here are his splits, with Judge amassing a .344 AVG, .454 OBP, .656 SLG and 1.109 OPS against left-handers so far this season. That doesn’t even take into consideration that he’s Top-5 in both exit velocity and barrel rate. That gives him arguably the best hitting profile in the Majors.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/2 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Here we are, it’s Labor Day. While most of you were still sleeping, I was sitting here spinning records, and poring over the 9/2 MLB DFS Pitching Picks. One of the things I love about having a Monday holiday is a bevy of MLB games to watch.

On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate we are starting a new format, besides giving you my top pitching picks to play, I will also be giving you some top pitching picks to attack. This all part of our continuing effort to bring you the highest quality analysis in the industry. Speaking of quality analysis, if you did not already know we now have a show on Sirius XM Fantasy Sports Radio on Saturday nights from 11 pm to 1 am EST. Make sure you tune in. So, without further delay, I bring you today’s top plays.

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On theDefense

JakeOdorizzi vs. Detroit Tigers

$9,700 FD / $10,500 DK

The Detroit Tigers are a prime team to attack on any given day, and this 9/2 MLB DFS slate is no different. They are striking out 27.3 percent of the time (1^st in MLB) with a .292 wOBA versus RHPs this season. Meanwhile, Odorizzi has been steady mobbin’ to the tune of RHBs, hitting a whopping .187 off him this season. With the Tigers being extremely right-handed heavy, Jake not from State Farm should dominant this Little League lineup today.

NoahSyndergaard vs Washington Nationals

$9,000 FD / $10,000 DK

In GPP play on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, even facing a teamthat mashes RHPs like the Nationals, I would seriously consider using Thor. Eventhough the Nats have ugly numbers versus opposing pitchers this season, they donot versus Syndergaard. Over three starts versus Washington this season Thorhas 18 strikeouts over 21 innings with eight earned runs, four of them comingin his first start back in late March. With Syndergaard having a road ERA of 3.49versus his 4.73 ERA at home, everything appears to be a go for him today.

MasahiroTanaka vs. Texas Rangers

$8,000 FD / $8,100 DK

Tanaka, much like Julio Teheran of years past, is much more dominant at home. So far this season he is posting a 3.26 home ERA as opposed to his 5.93 ERA on the road. The Rangers are striking out 24.2 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 86, while batting a pathetic .202 over the last seven. Despite Masahiro’s ups and downs as of late, in his last start facing Seattle he sent seven to the dugout mad while pitching a seven-inning shutout. On this 9/2 MLB DFS slate Tanaka is one of my favorite plays for the price.

Joe Rossvs. New York Mets

$6.800 FD / $6,600 DK

For the record on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate I prefer this play a lot more on DK over FD. Although the price is still nice on FD, I think the value is better served in the SP2 slot on DK. The Mets can be very dangerous to attack in MLB DFS versus RHPs, they are in the middle of the pack striking out 20 percent of the time with a .319 wOBA. But Ross has looked too good as of late to pass up here. Over his last five starts spanning a little more than 25 innings, he has only allowed three earned runs while striking out 16 batters. My biggest concern is innings here, as he does have a few starts in that span where he failed to reach the five-inning mark.

On theAttack

Drew Smylyvs. Cincinnati Reds

For fantasy owners Drew Smyly has done anything but make you smile. Over his last five starts he has allowed 20 earned runs over his last 26 innings, making the Reds a prime stack on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate. Cincinnati has some powerful RHBs, and is posting a .328 wOBA versus LHPs, Smyly is in serious trouble today in the Great American Small Park.

Notable Bats

Aristides Aquino has a .578 wOBA and 261 wRC+ versusLHPs with four straight games without a HR.

Phillip Ervin has .488 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPswhile batting .333 with two home runs over the last seven days. He also hasfound his way into the three spot.

Eugenio Suarez has .423 wOBA and 160 wRC+ versus LHPs and has seven home runs over his last nine games. He did leave yesterday’s second game of the doubleheader with a hand injury so keep your eyes peeled here.

JordanZimmerman vs. Minnesota Twins

The McRib, Roller skates, and Sandy Koufax are three thingsthat all had to come to an end. Much like Jordan Zimmerman’s good starts as oflate. Although he has three starts in a row allowing two earned runs or less,the last time he faced Minnesota they bombed him for five runs over threeinnings sending the Zim home in dismay. I see serious regression here today andwill stack against this geriatric pitcher on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate facing a Twinsteam posting a .345 wOBA versus RHPs.

Notable Bats

Nelson Cruz is crushing everyone and RHPs are notdifferent. He is posting .411 wOBA and wRC+ of 158 versus RHPs this season.

Mitch Garver currently has a .396 wOBA versus RHPs with a wRC+ of 147. Over the last seven days he is also batting .455 with three home runs.

Luis Arraez, if he gets the start today, which I believe he will, has a .374 wOBA versus RHPs with a complimentary 133 wRC+. With bigger bats, and $4,000 price tag on DK, you can get him at a low ownership today for sure.

Mike Minorvs. New York Yankees

The New York Yankees hit home runs like I eat Beyond Burgers, pretty much every day. I know this, does Mike Minor? If not, he will soon enough. The Yankees are crushing lefties to the tune of .360 wOBA this season with a wRC+ of 121, both which are 4^th in MLB. The magic number is 55, remember that number on this 9/2 MLB DFS slate, it is how many dingers the Yanks have launched this season versus lefties. With Minor allowing 10 earned runs in his last 12 1/3 innings, I suspect the number will be much higher tomorrow. Keep in mind that Minor has reverse splits, so do not be afraid to go lefty on lefty here in GPPs.

Notable Bats

D.J. LeMahieu is posting .476 wOBA and 202 wRC+ versus LHPs this season. Despite the horrible BVP versus Minor I would still rank him at the top batting .400 with two home runs over the last seven days.

Aaron Judge has returned to pass judgement with his .470 wOBA versus LHPs. He is batting .375 with three home runs over the last seven days and I fully see him putting one out today.

Luke Voit has posted a .354 wOBA this season along with a wRC+ of 120 versus LHPs. I like the pricing for him on both sites today and will have a lot of exposure to him. If Mike Ford somehow draws the start, that will certainly be my pivot.

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With the Tigers striking out 27.2 percent of the time versus RHPs, and Odorizzi striking out six batters or more in four out of his last five starts the over here seems to easy.

Zimmerman more-than-likely will not see enough innings after the Twins bats get a hold of him today, so the under here is where I am looking.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For September 1

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

This Sunday September 1st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Todays picks are listed in order of preference, not price.

David Jones won 100K on FanDuel! Read about it here!

Catcher: UPDATE: NOT STARTING Mitch Garver ($3,300 FD) has five hits and three home runs in his last two games. He is slashing .429/ 1.143 ISO over the last seven days. He takes on the Detroit Tigers starter Spencer Turnbull and his deceptive 4.18 ERA. As the season has progressed, Turnbull has gotten less reliable. In August he touts a 6.55 ERA. He has given up at least one (usually more) runs in every game he has pitched in since June 11th. In his last eight innings he has given up nine runs. Garver is in a fantastic MLB DFS spot to keep his elite run alive.

Catcher Value: Jason Castro, Robinson Chirinos

First Base: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD) Here is a reasonably priced Astro for MLB DFS. Gurriel is hitting .247 ISO/.386 wOBA with 22 homers vs righties. He is En Fuego right now and on a nine game hit streak. He should be batting sixth behind five fantastic Astro bats. Gurriel should easily be able to reach double digit FanDuel points today with upside for over 20 if he can send one over the wall. Spoiler alert; he can.

First Base Pivot: UPDATE NOT STARTING: Mike Ford, Matt Olsen

Second Base: Whit Merrifield ($3,400 FD) is my favorite second baseman to exceed MLB DFS value today. He is underpriced and gets and fantastic matchup vs one of my favorite pitchers to target in Aaron Brooks (and the Baltimore Bullpen). Brooks has a 5.79 ERA and gets blown up almost every game he pitches in. Throw out his last start in Washington where he shutout the Nats. I watched that whole game and I blame the Nationals lack of enthusiasm more than Brooks suddenly “figuring it out”. Before last game, Brooks has only scoring over 31 fantasy points ONE TIME since April Fools Day (not joking). Royals are my favorite stack on the day and Whit is going to help lead the charge.

Second Base Pivot: Jose Altuve

Third Base: DJ LaMahieu ($4,200 FD) is on a hot streak with multiple hits in four of his last six games. He hits .286 ISO/.477 wOBA on the season vs lefties and gets to face Sean Manaea this afternoon in Yankee Stadium. Manaea is coming off the 60 day IL after shoulder surgery and I wouldn’t expect him to last six innings here. He has looked sharp in is rehab starts in Triple-A but facing this bomb hitting Yankees squad will be a much different task. LaMahieu should be batting lead off and has not put up a goose egg in his last eight starts. He feels safe with big MLB DFS upside today.

Third Base Pivot: Miguel Sano, Hunter Dozier, Matt Chapman

Shortstop: Alex Bregman ($4,200 FD) I really like the Astros today but the price of all the bats is making it difficult to stack them. He hits .259 ISO/.395 wOBA with 21 home runs. He is batting cleanup and no matter which pitcher Toronto chooses to follow Font (Gaviglio or Godley), Bregman is a solid play at shortstop. He is always contributing. Bregman has not put up a zero in the box score since August 2nd. That alone is impressive. He is safe.

Shortstop Pivots: Adalberto Mondesi, Trea Turner, Marcus Semien

Outfield: Aaron Judge ($4,400 FD) is possibly the hottest hitter in baseball right now. He has a home run in six of his last eight games. He is absolutely locked in. He faces Sean Manaea in his first start since his shoulder surgery. Manaea is not a terrible pitcher but Judge is an elite bat that should be able to take advantage of him, AND the Oakland A’s bullpen. Lock in Judge and figure the rest out.

Outfield: Max Kepler ($3,500 FD) is way to cheap on FanDuel. He should easily be priced over 4K today. He has 26 home runs on the season vs righties and hits .293 ISO/.359 wOBA. He has multiple hits in his last two games in Detroit and at minimum he is getting on base again. The Twins as a team have put up 30 runs combined in their last three games. Today they keep their foot on the gas and Kepler gets his.

Outfield: Jorge Soler ($3,500 FD) is hitting .303 ISO/.373 wOBA vs righties this season and has 33 homers. He goes against my fave pitcher to target in MLB DFS, Aaron Brooks. Easy choice, especially at that price.

Outfield Pivots: Houston Outfield (Springer, Alvarez, Brantley)

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: Bombs Over the Bronx

5 years ago

written by

For the record, I go into Texas high school football mode tonight, but since Friday Night Lights doesn’t make me (or you) copious amounts of the long green, then the 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks is a nice consolation.

All but one game is played in the lights and there’s plenty of nifty stack plays awaiting.

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8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Catcher

Jorge Alfaro, MIA at WAS

DK ($3,700), FD ($2,700)

Sometime in the past week, Alfaro tapped into his inner Joe Mauer, circa 2009. As a result, he’s ripped off five straight multi-hit games and has averaged better than 27 FanDuel points in that span. Alfaro homered in three straight games this week, helping to elevate his HR/BB% to 28% along with a fast-rising 43.8% line drive rate.

With an OPS over 1.100 over the past two weeks, I think Alfaro continues his hitting tear on the road against Nats hurler Anibal Sanchez, who has pitched well of late but has struggled when his line drive rate (24%) looks a lot less like his 2018 total (18%).

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – First Baseman

Mark Canha, OAK at NYY

DK ($5,300), FD ($3,400)

This won’t be the last time this game is mentioned. Canha has been a bargain banger, recording hits in 10 of his last 11 with four homers and 12 RBI. He’s been a blessing for FanDuel users, having recorded four games of at least 24.70 points during the same span. Canha walks at a 13.3% rate, somewhat understandable considering the amount of lumber in the A’s offense. His .271 Isolated Power is almost even with his .277 batting average.

A weekend at Yankee Stadium awaits Canha, who has a 23.2% HR/FB% and 42.7% fly ball rate and faces CC Sabathia. The Yankees starter has allowed right-handed hitters to tag him for 19 homers and a .287/.343/.543 (.892 OPS). Indeed, a solid 8/28 DFS Hitting and Stacks play.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU at TOR

DK ($5,100), FD ($4,200)

In 161 fewer at-bats from last season, Altuve has already equaled his career-best with 24 homers. That number could be eclipsed tonight as Altuve and the Astros head up north for a weekend set against the Blue Jays. His Isolated Power (.251) is .116 better than last year as he’s exchanged a career-high 39.4% hard contact rate and a slight bump in fly ball rate (30.7%) while watching his line drive rate dip to 18.3%.

What’s insane is that Altuve went .321/.384/.634 (1.018 OPS) with eight homers, 19 RBI and 32 runs scored this month and may not have been the best player in his lineup. Ponder that one for a second.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE at TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,500)

Lindor launched his fourth homer in his last six games during Thursday’s win over the Tigers and remains worth the price to add to any 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks lineup. He’s put up at least 15.50 FanDuel points in five of his last six games and has produced an OPS over 1.200 in the past week.

If you look at his hard contact rate, you’ll see it’s increased with each passing season, going from 25.5% in his rookie season in 2015 to his current 43.7%. While his Isolated Power has dipped to “just” .231, Lindor’s second half run has been fueled by an increased BABIP that has gone from .279 in 2018 to .313 this season.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Third Baseman

Nolan Arenado, COL vs. PIT

DK ($5,700), FD ($4,700)

Including Thursday night’s effort against the Pirates, six of Arenado’s last 13 hits have been of the extra base persuasion, making him platinum-locked as a 8/30 DFS Hitting Picks member. When is it a bad thing to see a hitter of Arenado’s caliber delivering a 44.1% fly ball rate in Coors Field, where he also has an OPS over 1.000? I’ll wait.

Even with a slight dip in hard contact rate (41.6% compared to last season’s 42.9%) and HR/FB% (17.8%, 20.7% in 2018), Arenado at home against a pitcher (Dario Agrazal) who has a 1.84 HR/9 rate and 43.2% fly ball rate is money.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. OAK

DK ($5,300), FD ($4,500)

A week ago, Judge had just two homers in the month of August to go along with an OPS that barely hovered over .700. Five homers and 1.485 OPS later, Judge comes into tonight’s game with a .921 OPS this month with 15 of his 28 hits going for extra bases. The recent tear has pushed Judge’s Isolated Power to .236, putting him on par with last year’s .249. He’s dirty after dark, as Judge sports a .934 OPS in night games.

Judge is putting together a solid 29.6% line drive rate, yet isn’t getting enough lift (29% fly ball rate) to justify a vicious 55.4% hard contact rate. Take him into the lineup as Judge’s 1.179 OPS against lefties won’t be good news for A’s starter Brett Anderson, who has a lifetime 6.86 ERA against the Yankees in eight career starts.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Sam Hillard, COL vs. PIT

DK ($4,000), FD ($2,900)

(Yet) another rookie who has debuted swinging like a first-ballot Hall of Famer, Hillard has wallopped a pair of homers among his first three big league hits. In only eight at-bats, Hillard has given DFSers a sample of his work in Triple-A, where he hammered 35 homers. He also stole 22 bases en route to producing a freakish 1.569 OPS.

Hilliard had a 41% fly ball rate and a 41.5% pull rate in the minors this season, traits that should allow him to thrive in Coors Field against hapless Pirates pitchers this weekend, including the aforementioned Agrazal. If he’s in the lineup, Hillard is a bargain.

8/30 DFS Hitting Picks – Outfielder

Aristides Aquino, CIN at STL

DK ($4,900), FD ($4,100)

Aquino has shook off a brief slump and has returned to mauling hurlers at a historic pace. He comes to the Gateway to the West with three homers and an 1.173 OPS in the past week, continuing a month that has seen Aquino go .330/.393/.804 (1.197 OPS). As far as first months go, Aquino has made a hell of an impression.

Aquino came into the majors with a .337 Isolated Power in Triple-A, only to destroy that mark, raising it to .474. His hard contact rate has come down to 38.9%. However, his fly ball rate is a strong 47.2% and you certainly live with his 23.4% strikeout rate. Something will give between him and Cards hurler Dakota Hudson. Bet on the Red.

8/30 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/30 Hitting Stack of the Day: New York Yankees: Build with Judge as the foundation and add Gleyber Torres ($4,900 DK) and Gary Sanchez ($4,700 DK). Attempting to go all-in toward a hard out Yankees stack will cost you when it comes to pitching, so look after Luke Voit ($5,100 DK) or D.J. LeMahieu ($5,300 DK)

8/30 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Oakland A’s: Wheel out the right-handed bats, starting with Canha, who is enough of a bargain to allow you to add Matt Chapman ($4,700 DK). Josh Phegley ($3,800 DK) has a homer and 1.182 OPS in 11 at-bats against Sabathia. Even in a lefty-lefty scenario, Matt Olson ($4,600 DK) is a good play.

8/30 Hitting Stack to Consider: Pittsburgh Pirates: Rockies starter Antonio Senzatela has a 6.80 ERA at Coors Field and allows hitters to batter him to the tune of a .310 batting average. Bryan Reynolds ($5,600 DK) is a good start, but Kevin Newman ($5,200 DK), Collin Moran ($4,600 DK), Melky Cabrera ($3,900 DK) and Josh Bell ($5,700) are strong options.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/28 DFS Hitting Picks and Prop Plays: Story Telling

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Whenever we have games spread all throughout the day, I try my best to cater to every DFS player out there. What’s interesting here is that we only have three games during the day, so I’ll only offer up two plays from that slate. That should help DFS players who want to play both schedules and that’s our goal here at Win Daily Sports! So, let’s get into our 8/28 DFS Hitting picks!

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8/28 DFS Hitting Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,900)

Trying to pick a catcher is always the toughest part of this article but Chirinos is a nice value on this slate. The reason for that is because of his matchup, with the Astros facing Ryan Yarbrough. While the Tampa lefty has been brilliant this season, his 3.89 xFIP indicates that he has some negative regression headed his way. That’s huge for a guy like Chirinos, with the Astros backstop generating a .447 OBP and .982 OPS against southpaws so far this season.

8/28 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Matt Olson, OAK at KC

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,500)

A power hitter like Olson becomes a great pick against a homer-prone pitcher like Jakob Junis. A 4.89 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from Junis is bad enough but his 58 dingers allowed since 2018 is one of the worst marks in baseball too. That’s got to light up Olson’s eyes, with the left-handed slugger posting a .511 SLG and .260 ISO since 2017. He’s been even better against right-handers in that span, tallying a .351 OBP, .543 SLG and .894 OPS against them. Olson is feeling it right now too, amassing a .382 OBP over his last 17 fixtures.

8/28 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Gleyber Torres, NYY at SEA

DK ($4,600) FD ($4,400)

Let’s kick off our day-slate recommendations with the hottest second baseman in the league. This dude has been absolutely ridiculous the last few weeks and it’s scary just how good this 22-year-old kid could be. Over his last 22 games, Torres has 13 homers en route to a .786 SLG and 1.126 OPS, with 10 of those dingers coming in his last 15 fixtures. Those fantastic numbers since the All-Star break have led to a breakout season with 33 dingers in total. Torres has a career .531 SLG and .869 OPS with the platoon advantage in his favor too and we definitely have to consider him against a guy like Justus Sheffield.

8/28 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at CWS

DK ($5,500) FD ($3,900)

Sano is a favorite of mine and I’m just thrilled to see him hitting so well. A .579 SLG, .923 OPS, .378 wOBA and .332 ISO is obviously all career-highs, as it really shows just how powerful this dude is. His .250 career ISO is still a rather impressive mark and it’s clear that things are finally clicking for the big man. The reason we like him today is because he gets the platoon advantage against a terrible lefty. The Twins face Ross Detwiler, who’s got an unsightly 6.29 ERA and 1.72 WHIP dating back to 2015. That’s why Minnesota is projected for more than six runs, with Sano accumulating a .394 wOBA, .341 ISO, .612 SLG and .966 OPS against left-handers this season.

8/28 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Trevor Story, COL vs. BOS

DK ($5,300) FD ($4,300)

While this isn’t a great matchup against Eduardo Rodriguez, Story is always in play at home against a lefty. Let’s start with his Coors Field numbers, with Story totaling a .326 AVG, .399 OBP, .683 SLG and 1.082 OPS at home this season. That’s pretty close to his numbers against lefties, with the shortstop posting a .383 OBP, .637 SLG and 1.020 OPS since the beginning of 2017. That means he’s hard t fade anytime he faces a lefty at home and Rodriguez surely has to be scared of Coors Field with the Rockies projected for more than six runs.

8/28 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS at COL

DK ($5,600) FD ($4,700)

How can this possibly go wrong? Arguably the best pure hitter in baseball hitting in Coors Field is a recipe for success, particularly someone as hot as Martinez. Over his last 48 games, J.D. is putting together a 349 .AVG .420 OBP, .646 SLG and 1.066 OPS. Those are actually not that far off of his season-long numbers and he should do some serious damage in a place like Coors Field. What we like here is that he gets to face Peter Lambert, who’s pitching to a 6.40 ERA and 1.61 WHIP this season.

Aaron Judge, NYY at SEA

DK ($4,500) FD ($4,300)

We foreshadowed this a bit with our final sentence in the Torres write-up, as we love the Yankees on this slate. Any time they face a weak left-hander, all of the powerful righties are in play. Judge is just that, as he and the Bronx Bombers will oppose Sheffield and his 6.43 ERA and 2.29 WHIP. That’s truly frightening against a stud like Judge, who actually leads the league in exit velocity and hard-hit percentage. Those elite advanced statistics have been really shining recently, with Judge hitting four doubles and five homers over his last 14 games. Not to mention, he also has a .478 OBP, .667 SLG and 1.144 OPS against southpaws so far this season and is priced way too low on DK.

Franmil Reyes, CLE at DET

DK ($4,000) FD ($3,200)

After a couple of stud outfielders, let’s give you a value play. Reyes is just that and it’s truly hard to understand why his price remains so low. We’re talking about a slugger with a .513 SLG and .271 ISO being priced around a bunch of minor leaguers. What makes it even more bizarre is that Reyes has four dingers over his last three games while knocking out six homers in total over his last 13 fixtures. That means the power stroke is strong right now, which is not a good thing for Jordan Zimmermann and his 6.48 ERA and 1.46 WHIP.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

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Aaron Civale Over 5.5 Strikeouts

Adam Plutko just struck out nine Tigers on Tuesday and I expect Civale to have a similar performance. The rookie is pitching to a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP and gets to face a Detroit lineup who ranks last in runs scored, xwOBA and K rate.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/25 DFS Hitting and Stacks

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

It’s been a B-Dub Weekend, so let’s close out the weekend with the 8/25 DFS Hitting and Stacks and add little more of the long green that several of our WDS crew have added to their bank accounts.

Eleven games dot the bulk of the schedule, but the later starts do offer a gem or two.

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8/25 DFS Hitting Catcher

Omar Navarez, SEA vs. TOR

DK ($4,600), FD ($2,500)

Navarez gets the decisive edge as the lefty bat going against Clay Buchholz, who comes off the DL. Navarez has homered in both games this weekend and has thrived at home, going .295/.365/.494 with 11 of his 19 homers coming at Petco Park. I’ll trust in his 40.2% fly ball rate versus a hurler who allowed five homers in 24 innings before going on the DL in early May.

8/25 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Jose Abreu, CWS vs. TEX

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,000)

A six-game hitting streak that has seen Abreu score at least once in five of those games is one reason I’m looking at the Pale Hose slugger today. Abreu is more productive in the daytime, sporting a .855 OPS with 10 homers. Oddly enough, he’s stolen both of his bases in the natural light. Rangers rookie hurler Brock Burke makes his second big league, but both you and the lefty should know Abreu has gone .353/.393/.603 (.996 OPS) with eight homers and 25 ribbies against southpaws.

8/25 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Jose Altuve, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,100), FD ($4,000)

Altuve has scored at least one run in seven of his last eight games and has consecutive multi-hit games. Angels starter Jaime Barria has given up four hits in nine at-bats against Altuve with a .990 OPS against. Altuve is also riding the wave of a career-high .245 Isolated Power, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes Barria deep today. If so, he will equal his career-best with 24 homers. He’d be a good anchor in a 8/25 DFS Hitting and Stacks lineup leaning heavily with Astros.

8/25 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Francisco Lindor, CLE vs. KC

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,300)

The Royals brought up Eric Skoglund for today’s start, which probably made Lindor sleep like a kid on Christmas Eve. Lindor has just four career at-bats against Skoglund, but he’s hit a pair of homers and stolen a pair of bases off the KC southpaw. Lindor hasn’t been lights out of late, but does have at least one hit in nine of his last 10 and owns Royals pitching to the tune of .400/.425/.686 with four homers, 10 RBI and 15 runs scored. The Indians have been brimming with stack potential all weekend, and today looks great for them to anchor the 8/25 Hitting and Stacks with Lindor leading the way.

8/25 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Alex Bregman, HOU vs. LAA

DK ($5,200), FD ($4,200)

With six hits in his last 11 at-bats, Bregman is a solid choice here and a potential anchor of an Astros stack. Bregman has three homers and nine RBI over the past week and his .405/.500/.824 August that includes six homers, 26 RBI and 20 runs scored has put him strongly in the AL MVP conversation. His 44.9% fly ball rate blends well with his 44.2% hard contact rate, while his 18.5% HR/FB rate continues to take a sneaky climb.

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8/25 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Willie Calhoun, TEX vs. CWS

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Oh, why not? Saturday’s homer was his second straight game with a dinger and his fourth this week. Calhoun has eight homers this month while continuing his road-dominant trend (.946 OPS). He’ll face Reynaldo Lopez, who appears to have reacquired the home run bug after going three straight starts without giving one up. Lopez allowed a pair in his start against the Twins on Tuesday, shooting his HR/9 up to 1.65. That, plus his 44.9% fly ball rate, makes Lopez a potential mark for Calhoun to exploit today.

8/25 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Juan Soto, WAS at CHC

DK ($5,100), FD ($4,000)

Soto has picked apart Cubs pitching the way Clubber Lang picked apart Rocky Balboa in their first match in Rocky III (“Come on, Balboa! Make me wait!!). He’s gone .421/.522/.737 with a 1.259 OPS that’s produced a homer, five RBI and eight runs scored in just 19 at-bats this season. Soto has a 1.083 OPS this month with nine homers, so there’s no reason to fear using him against Cole Hamels. No one has done much to stop the Nationals’ offense of late, and I don’t see where Hamels neutralizes them today.

8/25 DFS Hitting Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY at LAD

DK ($7,200), FD ($3,800)

Consider this my move off the top rope: either this finishes the match or the momentum swings. Judge has never faced Clayton Kershaw, but Clayton Kershaw has never faced Judge, who has homered in each of the first two games of the series. Judge has three homers this week after entering it with just one dinger this month. For all of his Hall of Fame potential, Kershaw should know that Judge has an 1.121 OPS versus lefties this season and can be a beast with the lights on (.929 OPS at night). This matchup alone makes Sunday Night Baseball must-watch.

8/25 DFS Hitting Stacks

8/25 Hitting Stack of the Day: Cleveland Indians: As mentioned earlier, I’d start a stack with Lindor and plug in Franmil Reyes (a cheap $2,500 at FanDuel) along with Carlos Santana ($5,400 at DraftKings) and perhaps Yasiel Puig ($4,400 DK).

8/25 Hitting Stack Runner-Up: Houston Astros: As usual, they’re pricey, so you can’t load up in a big way. Altuve or Bregman are good anchors along with Yordan Alvarez ($5,500 DK). You should be able to find a low-end bat like Josh Reddick ($2,400 FD) or Martin Maldonado ($3,000 DK).

8/25 Hitting Stack to Consider: St. Louis Cardinals: The Rockies are throwing Antonio Senzatela and his 6.29 ERA. I like Paul Goldschmidt ($4,200 DK) at the anchor that includes Tommy Edman ($4,200 DK), Dexter Fowler ($3,200 FD) and Marcell Ozuna ($5,000 DK).

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/5 DFS Hitting and Prop Picks: All Rise!

Lahius Leverette 5 years ago

written by Lahius Leverette

For our 8/5 DFS Hitting Picks, we got some great options for you. We actually have a large 12-game slate, which is pretty surprising for a Monday. That is the ideal amount of games for DFS. though, and it should make for a fun slate.

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8/5 DFS Hitting Catcher

Yasmani Grandal, MIL at PIT

DK ($4,200) FD ($3,000)

Picking catchers is always tough but Grandal is always one of the safest options on the board. That’s clear by his .373 OBP, .481 SLG and .854 OPS. Not only are those all career-highs for Grandal, they also happen to be some of the best numbers at the catcher position. We have to like him against Dario Agrazal, whose 6.21 xFIP is one of the worst marks in the game. It also puts Grandal on the left side, with the switch-hitter posting a .490 SLG and .854 OPS against righties since last season.

8/5 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Ji-Man Choi, TB vs. TOR

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,100)

Choi is quietly one of the best values in DFS right now and it’s time for these sites to take notice of his stellar play. What’s really changed things for him is the move to the leadoff spot, with Choi batting leadoff in four-straight games against righties. It’s led to one of his best stretches of his season too, with Choi hitting .500 in that span while collecting three doubles, six runs scored and six RBI. That’s no surprise when you consider his splits, with Choi generating a .376 OBP and .878 OPS against right-handers since 2017.

8/5 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Rougned Odor, TEX at CLE

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,200)

I’ve had some great luck in recommending this guy and it’s easy to see why when looking at his recent numbers. Over his last 14 games, Odor has accrued three doubles, seven homers, 12 runs scored and 14 RBI en route to a 1.163 OPS. That’s the dude that we’ve been waiting for and he’s always one of the streakiest players in our game. The matchup against Aaron Civale is nice too, as it puts the platoon advantage in Odor’s favor versus a pitcher who’s only made one appearance at this level.

8/5 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Jose Ramirez, CLE vs. TEX

DK ($4,800) FD ($3,700)

Much like Odor, Ramirez is one of the hottest hitters in the league. Over his last 27 games, Ramrez is hitting .313 while providing 22 runs scored, 11 doubles, nine homers and 27 RBI en route to a .988 OPS. That’s the stud that we’ve been waiting for and it’s scary that he’s one of the league leaders with 22 steals as well. The icing on the cake is this matchup against Ariel Jurado though, who’s pitching to a 6.70 ERA and 1.58 WHIP over his last nine starts. It also puts Ramirez on the left side, with the switch-hitter posting an OPS north of .900 against righties since 2017.

8/5 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Jonathan Villar, BAL vs. NYY

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,300)

Villar is a regular in my articles and recent results would indicate that we’ve been all over this guy. The 14 homers and 24 steals tells you everything you need to know, as that alone makes this price hard to understand. Any leadoff hitter with that power-speed combo is worth using in this price range, especially with his recent form. Over his last nine games. Villar has collected two doubles, three homers, 12 runs scored and seven steals en route to a .455 OBP and 1.121 OPS. That’s absurd production and it’s really no surprise that most of it has come against righties. So far this season, Villar has a .346 OBP and .765 OPS against right-handers while swiping 19 of his 23 steals. That’s huge against Masahiro Tanaka, who’s got an unsightly 10.59 ERA and 1.89 WHIP over his last six starts.

8/5 DFS Hitting Outfielders

J.D. Martinez, BOS vs. KC

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,200)

Martinez is starting to get hot and that’s scary from a guy who’s already one of the best hitters in our game. Over his last 15 games, J.D. is hitting .374 while providing a .464 OBP, .729 SLG and 1.193 OPS. That’s the stud that we were expecting and his .584 xSLG and .408 xwOBA would indicate that this streak will only continue. What really adds to his intrigue is this matchup, with Martinez posting a .455 OBP, .887 SLG and 1.341 OPS against left-handers this season. It happens to be a southpaw we want to exploit, with Mike Montgomery pitching to a 6.34 ERA and 1.77 WHIP this season.

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. BAL

DK ($4,600) FD ($4,100)

While I don’t really like this FanDuel price, it’s pretty hard to fade Judge on DraftKings at $4,600. That price is absurd for someone so talented and the hitting profile is still there. While he’s been struggling recently, this masher is still generating a .545 xSLG, .405 xwOBA and 97.8 exit velocity. That exit velocity happens to be the best mark in baseball and it’s just a matter of time before his numbers start turning around. A matchup against the Orioles is a great way to start the rebound, with Baltimore sitting dead-last in ERA, WHIP and home runs allowed.

Eloy Jimenez, CWS at DET

DK ($3,400) FD ($2,900)

Jimenez is going to be one of the best power hitters in the league in coming years and we have to capitalize on this price. I truly believe that he’ll be $1,000 more on each site come this time next season and it’s really no surprise when you look at his power potential. A .220 ISO speaks for itself, as that’s pretty much on par with the power stud that we saw in the minors. While Jimenez is struggling in his first few games off of the IL, we’re talking about a guy who had 11 homers in his 28 games before going on the IL. That power potential is especially tough to fade in a matchup like this, with Detroit sending out Drew VerHagen and his 11.66 ERA and 2.80 WHIP. We can’t fade a guy with so much upside in such a premium matchup at a price like this!

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Play MLB Player Prop Games and Get 100 Percent Bonus!

Lucas Giolito Over 5.5 Strikeouts

After another winner in our last article, let’s go back to the well with the K props. What makes this prop crazy is that Giolito has recorded at least four Ks in all 21 of his starts this season. He’s done that to the tune of a 30 percent K rate and gets to face a Tigers offense that ranks bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA, xwOBA and K rate. I’m going to go bold and say he clears this prop in just four innings.

I’ll also be keeping track of my MKF picks from here on out so that you have a better idea of what I’m bringing to the table. I can only tack back to June but here’s where we are since. Record 22-14

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

Stack Report for MLB Main Slate: Winning Edge for July 19

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide recommended DFS stacks for today’s 14-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

New York Yankees Stack

vs. LHP Kyle Freeland (COL): 6.90 Runs

I glared at the computer for awhile this morning trying to figure out how to get away from this Yankees chalk tonight and I can’t do it. Kyle Freeland is just downright terrible. He carries a 7.39 ERA, 6.13 FIP, and 5.18 SIERA on the season. He has allowed 43 earned runs across 53 innings to right-handed batters. Freeland is allowing a massive 2.27 HR/9 innings and 43% hard contact. Freeland is not at Coors, but he is in very hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium. The Yankees have been slumping off just a bit coming off the break, but this team is jam packed with talent and it would be foolish to fade them. The Yankees are slashing to a .365 wOBA, .225 ISO, and 128 WRC+ over the last month. I’m typically an advocate against using the Yankees on most nights, but I feel confident using these right handed power bats this evening.

Cleveland Indians Stack

vs. LHP Mike Montgomery (KCR): 6.15 Runs

Mike Montgomery was a top prospect not long ago but has not had a good 2019 campaign. I doubt he’s stretched out all the way so he should be limited today. We have a small sample size to go off of here, but Montgomery carries a 5.67 ERA, 6.21 FIP, and 5.25 SIERA over 27 innings pitched this season. His splits indicate he struggles more with lefties. They are slashing to a .556 wOBA, .868 SLG, and .512 OBP. Montgomery is not much better against righties (thus far). They are slashing to a .336 wOBA, .464 SLG, and .338 OBP. Obviously these numbers are inflated due to limited action this season but most tend to go for the handedness matchup, so don’t be afraid to differentiate with some Cleveland lefties. Cleveland bats are red hot right now. They are slashing to a .369 wOBA, .255 ISO, and 128 WRC+ over the last couple of weeks.

Toronto Blue Jays Stack

vs. RHP Jordan Zimmermann (DET): 5.90 Runs

Jordan Zimmermann heads into tonight’s matchup carrying a 7.01 ERA, 4.64 FIP, and 5.35 SIERA. That ERA is a little elevated compared to his FIP and SIERA. That is because of his .344 BABIP and a lowly 58% LOB. Some of it can be attributed to bad luck but he also has a poor defense behind him, so that will drive his ERA up whereas FIP measures things only the pitcher can control. Bats are slashing to a .350 wOBA, .508 SLG, and .348 OBP on the season against him. Zimmermann has allowed 41 earned runs across 52.2 innings pitched. He has only allowed seven home runs in that span. Blue Jays batters are slashing to a .351 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 120 WRC+ over the last month. They have seen a dip in their batting averages recently, but this is a good spot for Toronto to do some damage.

Honorable Mention

Boston Red Sox Stack

vs. LHP John Means (BAL): 6.00 Runs

Preferred Stack: Christian Vazquez ($2800 FD|$4700 DK), Xander Bogaerts ($4500 FD|$5700 DK), Rafael Devers ($4400 FD|$5400 DK), and J.D. Martinez ($4000 FD|$4700 DK).

Pitching

RHP Jacob deGrom (NYM): 3.13 Runs
LHP Hyun-jin Ryu (LAD): 2.45 Runs
RHP Marcus Stroman (TOR): 4.20 Runs
LHP Brendan McCay (TAM): 3.29 Runs

5 years ago 0 comments

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