Win Daily NFL DFS

Another profitable week of NFL DFS is in the books. The entire field had a piece of that Bills/Dolphins game which turned out to be a big day for each team’s running backs (Our guy Stix mentioned Devin Singletary for GPP on our Discord on Saturday). Not many high scores, but we should’ve still doubled up in our cash games thanks to our projection models. Thanks to the site my own personal lineups would’ve all tanked if it weren’t for Mack Hollins‘ insane game (8 REC/158 YDS/1 TD). Remember we’re all in here to help, our team is here 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds anytime guys, now let’s break down Week 4!

Sunday Main Slate 10/2/22

Jaguars @ Eagles (-6.5) (O/U 46.5)

Jaguars

Have the Jags become a legit team in the NFL again? Head coach Doug Pederson looks like he may have turned this franchise around after the 38-10 shellacking his team put on the Chargers. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence has been efficient, throwing 6 touchdowns to only 1 interception. He’s useable in a GPP, but his main man Christian Kirk may see shadow coverage from Darius Slay. Pairing Lawrence with Zay Jones may be the way to go in this game, fresh off his 10 REC/85 YRD/1 TD performance.

Eagles

Philly is again in the driver’s seat this weekend. Jalen Hurts embarrassed his former mentor Carson Wentz last week, and now he gets a piece of his old coach Doug Pederson, who benched him in the final game of the 2020 season for Nate Sudfeld. Hard to pass up on a few Eagles for DFS again in Week 4…Should be another aerial attack on Jacksonville. Hurts, Brown, Smith, and Goedert are all reliable plays this Sunday.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, D. Goedert

GPP: T. Lawrence, Z. Jones

Bills @ Ravens (+3) (O/U 51.5)

Bills

Now we’re talking. Bang bang shoot’em up in Baltimore. After suffering that painful loss to Miami last week, we can foresee Josh Allen coming out guns blazing in this one. Whatever happened to this shutdown Raven secondary? They’ve been toasted since last season even with Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters back in the mix allowing over 1,100 air yards in 3 games. So Diggs is a lock to pair, but still, be cautious with Gabe Davis with his ankle injury. Dawson Knox has been quiet and his salary has whittled away, this might be the right time to sneak him into your DFS lineup.

Ravens

Raven contests have been money in the bank for DFS so far this season. Lamar vs. Allen, the Champ vs. the Number One Contender. We’ll see who’s playing defense for Buffalo by Sunday morning, but it shouldn’t matter to Jackson by the way he’s been playing. He leads the league in touchdown passes (10) with another 2 on foot. Top tight end Mark Andrews has also been unstoppably catching the football (22 REC/245 YDS/3 TD) and will continue to dominate whatever the defense throws at him.

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: D. Knox

Update: Watch the weather this weekend, could get soggy in Baltimore

Commanders @ Cowboys (-3) (O/U 41.5)

Commanders

Carson Wentz couldn’t stay off his back last week as the Eagles demonstrated why they have the number one ranked defense. He’ll be having a little case of deja vu on Sunday when they visit the Cowboys who can also get to the quarterback quickly. Dallas has a total of 13 sacks and has only allowed 2 passing touchdowns on the year. I’m taking a hard pass on the Commanders this week.

Cowboys

I’m tempted to put Cooper Rush in a GPP lineup, he’s been very safe as a game manager and with the low salary he could give us a little value. Lamb finally showed up last week (8 REC/87 YDS/1 TD) and we can only imagine what he can do to the Fuller/St. Juste coverage of Washington. The safe play is the Dallas DST though, the Cowboys may not have to rely too much on their offense if they end up shutting down the Commanders.

Cash: Dallas DST

GPP: C. Rush, C. Lamb

Seahawks @ Lions (-4) (O/U 48)

Seahawks

Seattle let Geno cook against Atlanta in Week 3, and the meal came out hot and spicy. He has an opportunity to duplicate his (325 PAYDS/2 TD) performance in Detroit, who have been very fantasy-friendly to quarterbacks this year. DK Metcalf looked spectacular too last week, but he may see a ton of Jeff Okudah, the dude who kept Minnesota’s J.J. quiet. If you’re looking to pair Geno, use Lockett this week. He had a nice 11-target (9 REC/76 YRD) game and should see the door mat corner in Detroit of Amani Oruwariye. Running back Rashaad Penny tore up Detroit at the end of last season for (170 YDS/2 TD) and he is a mere ($4,900 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel), keep him in mind for a tournament play too.

Lions

Detroit will be without 2 of its biggest weapons in D’Andre Swift and Amon Ra–St. Brown this Sunday due to injury. Goff will still be there to lead the team and he’ll look to lean on his safety valve, tight end T J Hockenson. Running back Jamaal Williams will pick up the slack for Swift, but Craig Reynolds may also see some snaps.

Cash: J. Goff, T. Hockenson, Jam. Williams

GPP: G. Smith, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Jets @ Steelers (-3.5) (O/U 42)

Jets

If you’re feeling lucky to go with gang green this weekend, Zach Wilson will finally take over for Flacco. He’s a steal at ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,500 Fanduel) and his receiver core is a bargain as well except we can’t be too sure who will get targetted yet. Tight end Tyler Conklin is ranked number 2 in the league but for some reason, his salary is still very inexpensive ($3,600 DraftKings/$5,400 FanDuel). Zach will need to throw it and Conklin offers little risk and high reward for quick receptions up the middle.

Steelers

Are we all in on Mitch? In a tournament for sure, I can’t bet half my bankroll on the biscuit. The Jets’ secondary are a disaster (22nd in DVOA for receivers/20th for QBs), and might as well give me some George Pickens of the core, cheapest with the most upside. Diontae Johnson would be the safer play in my opinion, but when facing the Jets anyone could be uncontroversial.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: Z. Wilson, T. Conklin, M. Trubisky, G. Pickens, N. Harris

Bears @ Giants (-3) (O/U 39.5)

Bears

Rain is in the forecast for this weekend, I can’t even imagine Fields getting double-digit pass attempts in this game. The Bears have nothing to lose yet they hold this kid back from airing it out. So It’ll be another big rushing day for Khalil Herbert against a Giants run defense that can’t stop anyone with the ball (25th in DVOA). Very safe for cash, and that’s about it…Chicago has been a snooze fest for three weeks.

Giants

New York is running thin at receiver after losing Sterling Shepard for the year to an ACL, Richie James is the last man standing at Met Life. Chicago will be ready for Saquon, Golladay is on the block, and Toney and Robinson are ruled out, so it will be James running routes all day. If New York wins, it will be with their defense, which has kept the scores down in all three games this year. Fields will pass at some point, and the Giants will look to exploit him.

Cash: K. Herbert, NY DST

GPP: R. James

Chargers @ Texans (+5.5) (O/U 44)

Chargers

Coming off a devastating loss at home to Jacksonville, Justin Herbert will be out for blood. Even though it appears Keenan Allen could miss his second straight game, Austin Ekeler has been quiet and could break out in Houston, where we just saw Chicago’s Khalil Herbert go bananas. Herbert does a pretty good job of spreading the ball, so be careful with Charger receivers here. Salaries are up across the board, and if they get a big lead, the passing game could taper off.

Texans

On the other side of that coin, Houston will be playing catch-up all game. No Joey Bosa, a banged-up Derwin James, and possibly no J C Jackson, and boom… Brandin Cooks is back on SportsCenter. A WR1 is priced down to a WR2 this weekend, come and get some.

Cash: B. Cooks

GPP: A. Ekeler

Browns @ Falcons (+1.5) (O/U 49)

Browns

Cleveland has a nice match-up on paper but I just can’t buy too much into Brissett. Amari Cooper on the other hand has proven to be the 1, but how much will they need to throw it here against Atlanta? Nick Chubb has been on an absolute rampage in this run-first offense so why bother exposing a weakness in passing? Chubb’s approaching $8k in salary this week on DraftKings, but could have low ownership because of the Jamaal Williams hype. Sneaky in GPP.

Falcons

The Browns defensive line might be without two key pieces as Jadeveon Clowney and Myles Garrett are both questionable. This would buy more time for Mariota to find rookie Drake London in the open field, who has taken over as Atlanta’s number one option. Mariota could even peel off some chunks of rushing yardage himself in this situation, but either way, London should be good to go because of game flow.

Cash: D. London

GPP: N. Chubb, M. Mariota

Titans @ Colts (-3) (O/U 42.5)

Titans

The Titans finally got in the win column thanks to a strong performance by Derrick Henry. But the Colts rank third in the league in run defense, so they may need Tannehill to step up his game. The rookie Treylon Burks and veteran Robert Woods have been the only guys trusted in the passing game, but Shaq Leonard may finally be suiting up this Sunday, so I’m just staying away entirely on the Titans.

Colts

Tennessee may have the worst secondary in football and could spell another monster game from Michael Pittman Jr. They also rank 29th in rushing yards allowed, which could wake the sleeping giant of Jonathon Taylor. Both are still up there in salary, and it is a divisional game which would lead to both teams being cautious with the ball and playing solid defense, so we can go there, the Colts D. is in a sweet spot.

Cash: Colts DST

GPP: M. Pittman Jr.

Cardinals @ Panthers (-1.5) (O/U 43)

Cardinals

The Cards got bit by the injury bug this week, as almost the entire offense popped up with a questionable tag, even Marquise Brown. Hopefully, it’s not too serious for him, since he saw 17 targets last week, catching 14 for 140 yards, and can be in line for the same volume in Carolina. Tight end Zach Ertz is pretty much the only healthy weapon for Kyler this week and can also see a huge uptick in usage.

Panthers

Arizona has been a cheat code for drafting at the wide receiver position so far this season. Let’s just keep filling up our buckets from that well and grab Carolina’s WR1 DJ Moore. He’s been quarterback-proof throughout his career, so buy in this week while Moore is dirt cheap ($5,300 DraftKings/$6,100 FanDuel) with a ton of upside.

Cash: M. Brown, Z. Ertz, DJ Moore

GPP:

Patriots @ Packers (-9.5) (O/U 40.5)

Patriots

Veteran backup Brian Hoyer will get the start for the banged-up Mac Jones. We can’t trust any receiver let alone Hoyer this weekend, especially against their tough defense. If anybody to take a shot on again is Rhamondre, he got you over 20 Fantasy points last week. Slowly he is easing his way into the James White role in New England, as a PPR machine.

Packers

A low-scoring, backup QB on the other side, just reeks of a very slow-paced game. Rodgers and the offense may take it easy this weekend and show very little urgency to New England, so let’s think about what pieces we want…Tonyan? He’s a very trusted weapon of Rodgers and has been flying under the radar for a while, a great punt at tight end for a GPP.

Cash: Packers DST

GPP: R. Stevenson, R. Tonyan

Broncos @ Raiders (-2.5) (O/U 45.5)

Broncos

Denver is still struggling to figure out their new identity, and it may take a while if you’ve been watching the play calling. Until Russell Wilson can get comfortable, he’ll lean on his running back Javonte Williams, as he should. So far he’s cooled off since his (11 REC/65 YRD) game in the opener, but that could change this week as Melvin Gordon is beginning to be eased out of his role.

Raiders

“A return of the Mack”? We better run it back with this dude. The second week in a row without Hunter Renfrow so Mack Hollins will see a larger role in the offense again. He’s looking to build off his (8 REC/158 YDS/ 1 TD) even though it’s a tougher matchup, Adams and Waller will demand priority defensive coverage over him. A significant bump up in salary too but is still reasonably priced considering his ceiling.

Cash: Jav. Williams

GPP: M. Hollins

Cash Core 4

J. Allen, S. Diggs, Jam Williams, M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

M. Trubisky, N. Chubb, M. Hollins, R. Tonyan

Stacks

J. Allen/Diggs; L. Jackson/M. Andrews; J. Goff/TJ Hockenson; M. Trubisky, D. Johnson

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 4 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

What a way to follow up on the 2022 – 23 season…Week 2 was full of action! Loaded with upsets and monster performances, if you stacked that Miami/Baltimore game you are sitting on a lot of green! Again our models came through in the clutch for cash games, so stay right here we have Week 3 around the corner and you don’t want to miss out. Our team of experts is here to help 24/7 in our discord chat, tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any questions about your lineup builds, who to start, or fade. Thanks again everybody, it’s been such an awesome season so far, and now back to the grind!

Sunday Main Slate 9/25/22

Chiefs @ Colts (+5.5) (O/U 50.5)

Chiefs

Kansas City is one of the most pass-heavy offenses in the league and will need to utilize it in Indianapolis since Shaq Leonard and Deforest Buckner have held opponents to a mere 2.7 yards per carry. So Mahomes and Kelce will need to move the chains in the air, totally safe for cash. Consider also Mecole Hardman ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) for a sneaky value in this match-up, who’s seen just over 56% of snaps with 10 targets.

Update: Shaq Leonard (Colts) is out, CEH is good to go!

Colts

Matt Ryan and company are still looking for their first win of the season, but it could be an uphill battle with KC. They’ll need their bell cow Jonathon Taylor to get off to a good start in order to play keep away from Pat Mahomes. His price is way too steep for a potential Chiefs blow out so no thanks. We’ll see if Indy can get Michael Pittman healthy enough for Sunday, they’ll need all hands on deck. Andy Reid will have extra coverage on him if he does play. The Colts are just way too thin at weapons to compete with these AFC West Juggernauts, but if you really need a Colt this week, Ryan will have great value ($5,200 DraftKings/$6,700 FanDuel).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH

GPP: M. Ryan, M. Hardman

Bills @ Dolphins (+6) (O/U 52.5)

Bills

Buffalo steamrolled thru the defending champs and last year’s AFC number-one seed scoring 72 points in 2 games. They’ll want to keep that momentum moving to take control of the division in Miami, which has plenty of shoot-out potential. Allen and Diggs are a bulletproof stack and a no-brainer for cash but they will eat up your cap space. Gabe Davis still has a lingering ankle injury, but if he is good to go for Sunday, try to plug him in for the up-side value. Otherwise, pivot to Dawson Knox.

Dolphins

6 Touchdowns for Tua in the comeback win in Baltimore, with Waddle and Tyreek both having 40-plus fantasy points last week. The number one-ranked defense is in town but without pro bowl safety Micah Hyde and cornerback Dane Jackson….oh boy are we in for a treat from Miami again! Salaries are up, but well worth it in this clash of these AFC East Titans. We’re good across the board for these three, start up your fins!

Cash: J. Allen, S. Diggs, D. Knox (if G. Davis is out) G. Davis (if healthy)

Cash/GPP: T. Tagovailoa, J. Waddle, T. Hill

Eagles @ Commanders (+6.5) (O/U 47)

Eagles

They look to be the team to beat in the NFC, putting up 38 in Detroit and manhandling Minnesota at home. Hurts has shown to be fantasy reliable so far, and punishing the weak opposing defenses. A J Brown was quiet, but not needed last game. we saw Devonta Smith show up Monday night with 15 fantasy points. Running Back Miles Sanders has also been surprisingly trustworthy this season averaging 90 yards a game rushing. Dallas Goedert has been quiet but is due a game, owning 90 % of the snaps. Let it ride in Philly!

Commanders

Will Wentz get his revenge on the Eagles and pull off the upset at home? Don’t be so quick to jump on the hype train, he’s been way too inconsistent for me. He’s looked like a deer in headlights in the first half of each game so far but somehow pulls off a decent fantasy game in the end. Not against this defense, not after what happened to Cousins on Monday. Check out Curtis Samuel or Logan Thomas for Washington this week. Samuel is heavily used in the scheme and leading the team in targets (20) while Thomas owns the lion’s share of snaps (73%) for Commander tight ends.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, M. Sanders, D. Goedert, C. Samuel

GPP: D. Smith, L. Thomas

Bengals @ Jets (+5) (O/U 45)

Bengals

The reigning AFC champs hit Broadway this week, but have looked like they’ve hit rock bottom at 0-2. Burrow’s reconstructed O-line has allowed him to be sacked tremendously but it may be the fact that he’s been holding the ball way too long. But his match-up is too good to be true and the Jets have no one in their secondary. Chase will feast, but Higgins comes at a discount and is a little more attractive. I didn’t forget about Mixon who should eat plenty here, (Jets run D @ 23rd overall) and grab a couple of Bengals for cash.

Jets

Flacco pulled a rabbit out of a hat on the road in Cleveland, can he run it back? Not worth the risk against Cincinnatti hungry for their first win. The rookie Garrett Wilson exploded for two touchdowns including the walk-off in the end zone and popped up on our radar. I still do like Michael Carter who still is leading the backfield and Elijah Moore’s price hit $5,000 on DraftKings who in my eyes is still the alpha. These Jets are viable in a GPP, but feel free to fade them if you want to play it safe.

Cash: J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J.Mixon

GPP: M. Carter, E. Moore, G. Wilson

Ravens @ Patriots (+2.5) (O/U 43.5)

Ravens

Don’t anticipate another back-and-forth game like Miami had in Week 2, Baltimore is averaging 31 points per game whereas the Pats are only putting up 12. Lamar is looking more and more this year like his old 2019 MVP form, giving Baltimore more of a reason to sign him long-term. He is totally safe this week on the road, as the Pats will not have anyone to contain him. Keep a close eye too on Devin Duvernay’s concussion status, if he is unable to play Demarcus Robinson would give you a nice cap space saver to slide in ($3,400 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel).

Update: Duvernay cleared to play, fade Robinson.

Patriots

They may be able to slow down the Ravens and grind it out, but Mac Jones I’m afraid will not be able to put up as many points against them. And since the receiving core is so crowded, we truly never know where the ball is headed either. Rhamondre Stevenson still owns 40 % of that backfield and is listed as their change-of-pace running back, I would consider him a GPP flyer for potential check-downs by Jones.

Cash: L. Jackson, D. Robinson (if Duvernay is out)

GPP: R. Stevenson

Lions @ Vikings (-6) (O/U 53)

Lions

Even though their defense has been a hot mess, Detroit still can light up the scoreboard averaging 35 points per game. Of all the talent I think we need to go back to the well of Amon Ra who’s demanded the ball from Jared Goff dating back to last season. That’s 8 straight games of double-digit targets catching 68 balls with 8 touchdowns. He’s dominated the game plan for Detroit causing other players’ production to drop… so I’m interested in T J Hockenson at ($4,200 DraftKings/$5,500 FanDuel) for value in this pass-friendly game.

Vikings

Cousins looked awful Monday night, but Detroit will bring him back to the fantasy promise lands. He’ll look to feed Jefferson at will, who the Lions have been unable to slow down. In two games in 2021, J J has caught 18 balls for 306 yards and a touchdown. Very safe for cash, and how about a punt at tight end…Irv Smith. Minnesota wants to get him the ball, just ($3,100 DraftKings/$5,000 FanDuel), caught 5 of 8 targets with a touchdown in Phila. He also led in snaps amongst tight ends for Minnesota which is good to see.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, I. Smith

GPP: T. Hockenson, J. Goff

Raiders @ Titans (+2) (O/U 45.5)

Raiders

Vegas is probably the best 0-2 team in football. After suffering 2 heart-wrenching losses to open the season, they will look to beat up on the also win-less Titans. It appears Hunter Renfrow may miss this one because of concussion protocols, so Tennessee will see a heavy dose of Carr to Adams. Tennessee has also been struggling on offense with defenses exposing Tannehill as an imposter at quarterback, keeping them off the scoreboard and game-scripting out Derek Henry.

Titans

If the Titans want to make a stand this week, they’ll need to get back to the basics…run the damn ball. Henry needs to be used to his full potential, and if he can break off a few big chunks of yardage, that should open up the play-action passing routes. But the O-line is atrocious without Taylor Lewan, so Henry is a tournament option only, but I have a funny feeling that they’re going to increase his workload this Sunday.

Cash: D. Carr, D. Adams, Raiders DST

GPP: D. Henry

Saints @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 40.5)

Saints

Oh man, what pieces do we really want from the Saints in this match-up? Carolina’s defense is not as good as Tampa’s, but they can still cause Jameis, sore back and all, to turn the ball over. New Orleans has also shown us something on defense, and Baker has been out of rhythm himself. Good landing spot for defense, New Orleans holds its weight in a DST

Panthers

Baker looks like he still needs the training wheels on for this offense and lacks chemistry with his weapons, especially McCaffrey. Maybe they’ll get something going together in week 3 but just too risky for our cash games. Let’s wait another week for the offense to bloom, but I have no problem with that Panther D facing a broken Jameis.

Cash: Panthers DST

GPP: Saints DST

Texans @ Bears (-3) (O/U 40)

Texans

Lovie Smith is back in town, but nothing to get excited about really. Smith is an old-school former Bears coach who believes in playing defense and running the ball…(yawn). This game script will put Dameon Pierce in the driver’s seat and may be in line for a big game. Aaron Jones of the Packers torched the Bears for 132 yards on foot last week, at Pierce’s current DFS salary ($5,000 DraftKings/$5,800 FanDuel) those numbers are like an all-you-can-eat buffet. Chicago linebacker Roquan Smith has already been ruled out which makes Pierce even more appetizing.

Bears

Chicago has one of the top three offensive lines in the league and will be force-feeding David Montgomery up the gut of Houston’s front line. The volume is cranked up for Montgomery, who saw 80% of the snaps and averaged 8 yards per carry for 122. Chicago is still reluctant to let quarterback Justin Fields air it out (28 Pass Attempts in 2 games) and should continue to keep it on the ground.

Cash: D. Pierce, D Montgomery

Jaguars @ Chargers (-7) (O/U 47)

Jaguars

No J C Jackson (ankle) for LA… so it’s on for Trevor Lawerence! Kirk could have another monster game as he has been Lawrence’s shiny new toy in Jacksonville. The duo has connected on 12 catches for 195 yards and 2 touchdowns so far this season. I prefer these two in a tourney though, better safe than sorry. But hold the phone, Herbert is a little banged up with a rib and Chase Daniels has been taking first-team reps, we may want to use their defense if Herbert can’t go.

Chargers

Not only did Herbert pop up on the injury report, but Keenan Allen is also still there with his hammy. I hate to write this but we may need to keep Chargers out of our DFS. Even if they do give it a shot to play, they may not finish the game. Plenty of other ways to go this slate let’s fade LAC this time.

Cash: None

GPP: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk

Packers @ Bucs (-1.5) (41.5)

Packers

Aaron Rodgers has plummeted down the QB rankings mainly because his receiver core is on empty. I’m not feeling anyone for cash here if anything this will be a big Aaron Jones/A J Dillon day, but as we know you can’t run on the Bucs. We’ll take a pass in DFS on the offense, but the defense would be interesting since Brady is in the same boat.

Bucs

Brady could be totally de-weaponized in week 3. Evans was suspended, Godwin was injured, and everyone else’s status is still up in the air. But it looks like Fournette could be the last man standing in The Goat’s circle of trust. If he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a ton of work. Rodgers as well is having issues with the Packers being thin at receiver, Tampa’s D would be a smart move if this game does turn out to be very low scoring.

Cash: L. Fournette

GPP: GB DST, TB DST

Rams @ Cardinals (+3.5) (O/U 48.5)

Rams

LA has owned the Cards since 2017 with a record of 10-1 and could make it 11-1 this Sunday if Stafford has a repeat performance. Serving up 272 yards with 3 touchdowns again would crush his salary but we may want to think twice about pairing with Kupp. He’s been held to only 6 catches per game in 2021 by Budda Baker and Byron Murphy, the only duo who has been able to contain him. I do like Higbee in this match-up, He is owning 94 % of the snaps in LA and is second in targets (20) behind Kupp.

Cardinals

Some good news for Kyler Murray as the Rams will be without corners, David Long and Cobie Durant. Even Jordan Fuller might not make it in after pulling a hamstring Thursday and would allow Murray to better take apart that secondary. The Cards have their own issues with James Connor being a game-time decision, so we should just look at the tight end Ertz, who has been rejuvenated in the desert. While catching 10 of 15 targets in 2 games with a touchdown, he’s generously priced at ($4,600 DraftKings/$5,200 FanDuel)

Cash M. Stafford, C. Kupp, K. Murray

GPP: Z. Ertz, T. Higbee

Falcons @ Seahawks (+1) (O/U 42)

Falcons

Atlanta for being 0-2 has played pretty decently given their roster. They were up big in week 1 before the Saints rallied back and last week they made a comeback of their own against the defending champs. They actually have a shot here in Seattle, Mariota is not the most talented quarterback, but he takes what the defense gives him. Kyle Pitts has been on lock by defenses, opening the door for the rookie London to have a breakout ( 8 catches/86 yards/1TD). London will continue to lead the team unless defenses give him more respect and let Pitts finally eat. I’m OK with these three in a tournament only, Seattle missing Jamal Adams gives Mariota a little extra breathing room with the football.

Seahawks

Geno Smith has not done much so far, but not because of him more so the coaching staff. DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett have been two Porsches covered up in a garage, collecting dust. We’ll see if Pete Carroll gives a little more leash to Geno and let him throw a little more especially against the 31st rank secondary in the league. It would also be nice to get a game from Rashaad Penny as Atlanta allow close to 5 yards per carry to opposing backs. Of course, all for GPP purposes everyone, we can’t use Seattle in cash.

Cash: None

GPP: M. Mariota, D. London, K. Pitts, G. Smith, DK Metcalf, T. Lockett, R. Penny

Cash Core 4

J. Hurts, J. Jefferson, T. Kelce, L. Fournette

GPP Core 4

M. Mariota, D. Pierce, I. Smith, C. Kirk

Stacks

J. Allen/S. Diggs/G. Davis; T. Tua/J. Waddle/T, Hill; D. Carr/D. Adams; J. Hurts/A. Brown; K. Cousins/J. Jefferson; P. Mahomes/T. Kelce; M. Stafford/C. Kupp; J. Goff/A. St. Brown; L. Fournette/ Tampa DST

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 3 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

Week One and done! Our project models were razor-sharp and should’ve increased your bankroll over the weekend! But there’s no time to sit back and count our money… there’s plenty more to make in Week 2! With so many ways to set your lineups on this 12-game slate, we got you covered. There were some incredible scores last week with a few big names like A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson, and Ja’Marr Chase in those cash games, so let’s get back to the lab and formulate more NFL DFS winners! Again always here to help in our discord chat, you can tag me @JDiCarlo78#5965 for any insight…Thanks and Good Luck this weekend!

Sunday Main Slate 9/18/22

Bucs @ Saints (+2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44)

Buccaneers

Cordarrelle Patterson averaged 10 YPC against the front seven of New Orleans and since Brady’s O-Line is a mess, he may want to hand it to his bell-cow Fournette, who looked like a battering ram Sunday night in Dallas. Chris Godwin may have come back from rehab too soon as he went down again with a hamstring, not looking good for him to play. So is Mike Evans a lock? Saints stud corner Marshon Lattimore says otherwise. He’s owned big Mike, holding him to 8 catches over the past 4 regular season matchups. Pivoting to Julio and Gage would fit nicely in a tourney.

Saints

The Bucs are still a brick wall to run on with Vita Veya and company upfront, so it’s a pass on Kamara for me this week. Jameis will be forced to throw a ton and after a two-year hiatus, Michael Thomas will get his share of targets again, especially after his two touchdowns. I mentioned above about Tampa’s O-Line, that Saints pressure could really rattle Brady on Sunday and force a few turnovers and sacks Saints DST I am not arguing at all for ($2,400 DraftKings/$4,000 FanDuel). On the flip side, Tampa themselves have been strong on defense. We all have seen Winston over the years turn over the ball, give me Tampa DST to play it safe.

Update: A. Kamara is out!!!

Cash: T. Brady, L. Fournette, Tampa DST, M. Thomas

GPP: J. Jones, R. Gage, Saints DST

Panthers @ Giants (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 43)

Panthers

I was not impressed with the offense, which looks to be still in the works and needs some more time to gel. CMC did not put up as many points as anticipated, mainly because of the Browns dialing in on defense. How about a homecoming for Robbie Anderson at the Meadowlands? He led Carolina with 8 targets, grabbing (5 REC for 102 YDS and a TD). Born and raised in Teaneck, NJ, and drafted by the Jets in 2016, Anderson may put out another nice stat sheet in front of family and friends.

Giants

New York pulled out an upset in Tennessee and the entire world saw Saquon Barkley carry his team to victory. This kid looked like he went back in time to 2018, rushing for 164 yards and a touchdown. He caught 6 balls for 30 too, making him hands down the focal point of the G-Men. I’m not feeling this low total though, so I would only feel safe with Barkley in this one. Now as a Giants fan, I would have said Sterling Shepard was still the WR1 of the core, even coming off an Achilles injury he proved my theory on the money. He is the only trust-worthy receiver for New York that brought in a 65–yard touchdown catch in Tennessee.

Cash: S. Barkley

GPP: R. Anderson, S. Shepard

Jets @ Browns (-6) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Jets

Ooofff another game where I’d rather be getting a root canal than watch. Sorry about last week guys, tried being a little too creative with Joe Flacco, he’s toast. He does like dumping off to his running backs, in fact, Michael Carter caught 7 of them. Elijah Moore did see 7 targets and is the best option at receiver for New York, I can invest with them in a GPP, especially Carter who has been praised by the head coach Robert Salah.

Browns

I dote on the fact that Cleveland kept quiet all week while Baker was in the spotlight, and pulled out the win in Carolina. Their defense when healthy is a huge headache for O.C.s and will 100 percent get to Flacco. The Browns will look to eat up the clock using Chubb and Hunt after getting the ball back from Jets’ 3 and outs. Possibly DPJ can break one off on a deep route like what Duvernay and Bateman did a week ago.

Cash: N. Chubb, Cleveland DST, M. Carter

GPP: K. Hunt, M. Carter, E. Moore, D. Peoples-Jones

Patriots @ Steelers (+1) 1 p.m. (O/U 40)

Patriots

What a disaster in New England, absolutely no good vibes on offense here. Mac Jones hit the injury report with back spasms, but even if healthy I don’t see the Pats moving the football. I can see using a Hunter Henry or Jakobi Meyers for a great ROI, since they will see their fair share of targets at a discount in salary.

Steelers

The Pittsburgh defense carried the team to an upset on the road in Cincinnati, picking off Burrow four times and recovering a forced fumble. New England should be a walk in the park compared to the defending AFC champs, even without a player of the year T J Watt. Pittsburgh may have to pass more than run in this one after Najee had an ankle stepped on and may see less snaps out of precaution. Diontae Johnson commanded the target share, but I do like Claypool as well, who can also be used in the running game.

Cash: D. Johnson

GPP: H. Henry, J. Meyers, C. Claypool, PIT DST

Dolphins @ Ravens (-3.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 44.5)

Dolphins

Tyreek Hill picked up right where he left off in Kansas City burning cornerbacks (8REC for 94YDS) and seeing plenty of targets (12). On the other side, Waddle took one to the house ( 4 REC or 69YDS and 1 TD). Even though Baltimore does have a solid defense, Tua is sitting pretty. Until we see somebody that can figure out the genius of head coach Mike McDaniels, let’s roll with the fins before they get too pricey.

Ravens

If it was the weather in Jersey or playing without a new contract, Lamar didn’t look to run with the ball. He won’t have a choice in this match-up, Xavien Howard and Byron Jones are two bookends in the Fins’ secondary. Bateman and Duvernay would be a little risky so that would leave Andrews as a much safer target. Hopefully, we get a nice clear cool day for Jackson to stretch his legs in front of a home crowd and show them he needs to be paid.

Update: J. K. Dobbins is not expected to play.

Cash: T. Hill, T.Tagovailoa, L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: J. Waddle

Colts @ Jaguars (+4) 1 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Colts

Indy barely tied the Texans rallying in the second half behind Michael Pittman’s (9REC/121YDS/1TD) stat line and Jonathon Taylor’s 161 yards rushing, 14 receiving from 4 grabs, and a touchdown as well. Not much to say about the number-one ranked running back paired with an up-and-coming number-one receiver, lock it up. But hold the phone. We may need to pivot to Paris Campbell after Pittman showed up late in the week with a quad injury. Regardless of his price this slate ($3,700 DraftKings/$5,100 FanDuel) he’s too tempting to pick up. Cash if Pittman sits out, GPP if he plays fellas.

Update: M. Pittman out! Heavy work load for Taylor and P. Campbell time!

Jaguars

The Jags held their own at Washington, putting points on the board. A surprise to that happening was the re-emergence of James Robinson who recovered from a torn Achilles to take back his job from Etienne. Another fact newly signed Christian Kirk is earning his living. Because Jacksonville may again be playing from behind, Kirk could see another 12 targets and catch for over 100 yards, with Zay Jones too who quietly saw 9 targets on 83 % of the snaps.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman, C. Kirk

GPP: Z. Jones, J. Robinson, P. Campbell (Cash if Pittman plays)

Commanders @ Lions (-2.5) 1 p.m. (O/U 49.5)

Commanders

Wentz gets another great match-up on paper in Detroit, who gave up 38 points to Philadelphia last week. We just can’t ignore that he threw for over 300 yards and 4 touchdowns against Jacksonville, yet still priced under $6K on DraftKings. It was nice to see Curtis Samuel get back into the mix again (20 PPR FPTS.) finally, who is a head coach Ron Rivera favorite and will stay on the field. ‘Scary’ Terry McClaurin was quiet as the rookie Johan Dotson scored twice, but we may see the roles reverse this week as he lines up across Amani Oruwariye, who was annihilated by A J Brown. But my favorite take on this team is how they used Antonio Gibson, Wentz checked it down to him for 7 grabs and he rushed for just over 4 YPC, owning over 64 % of the snaps.

Lions

Detroit showed us some heart and won’t go down without a fight. Goff will have another shoot-out with Wentz as both teams struggle to play defense. Everyone can eat again in the Silver Dome, especially Amon Ra, who will draw the same coverage from Christian Kirk’s incredible game last week. If it really heats up, Chark may show up in a big game too. Swift did not practice today with an ankle injury, will keep you updated, might be a Jamaal Williams day again without the vulturing.

Cash: A. Gibson, A. St.-Brown, T. McClaurin, J. Williams ( if Swift is out or limited, otherwise tournament move)

GPP: J. Goff, C. Wentz, C. Samuel, D. Chark,

Falcons @ Rams (-10.5) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 47)

Falcons

Atlanta looked fresh before collapsing in the second half to the Saints in the opener. The run-heavy Arthur Smith offense was led by Mariota and Cordarrelle Patterson and very effectively. But if the Rams get up to a big lead early, Mariota will be forced to play catch-up. A nice bounce-back spot for Pitts who was on a milk carton in week one. I wouldn’t attempt any Atlanta in cash games, strictly tournaments guys. If this game gets out of hand, we may see the backups out in the second half.

Rams

Get ready for a blood bath at SoFy Stadium. McVay was taking a beating all week from the LA press on how bad his team looked at home. He will have all the troops fired up including Allen Robinson who the Rams fans almost called an Amber Alert for. Stafford, Kupp, and Henderson are also a lock here, fade Akers for now until he’s out of the doghouse.

Cash: M, Stafford, C. Kupp, A. Robinson, D. Henderson

GPP: M. Mariota, C. Patterson, K. Pitts

Seahawks @ 49ERS (-10) 4:05 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Seahawks

Genoooo…. The veteran had an excellent game, but not for a DFS Millimaker. Smith only threw for 195 yards and two touchdowns and added 18 yards rushing. The volume just is nowhere to be seen yet anywhere in Seattle, salaries need to drop on DK Metcalf and Lockett before I consider anything. Penny has shown some signs of burst, but I just don’t like the match-up. I’m going to stay away from Seattle on the road in a division game.

49ERS

Give Lance another chance. Soldier field was a giant slip-n-slide in a hurricane. Eli Mitchell fell on IR from the conditions most likely, so next man up is Jeff Wilson by default. Lance and Deebo will get involved in the run-game as well, Deebo being the best option. It’s looking like no Kittle again, dude can’t catch a break, Aiyuk would see an uptick in volume if in fact he can’t suit up.

Update: G. Kittle doubtful

Cash: D. Samuel, J. Wilson

GPP: T. Lance, B. Aiyuk

Bengals @ Cowboys (+8.5) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 42.5)

Bengals

Burrow will get his revenge for a poor 4 interception home opener. Ja’Maar Chase will see a lot of Trevon Diggs who gives up way too many big yardage plays, something Chase will exploit. Mixon will be money in the bank too, who will see all the goal line work and carries to chew up the clock. Stacking Mixon with the Cincinnati DST, Cooper Rush under center….I can’t scroll fast enough!

Cowboys

Last Halloween Rush actually did have a solid game, beating the Vikes with a (325 YDS/2TD/1INT) stat line, not bad. Cee Dee Lamb will get safety help and suffocated again, which may leave Noah Brown and Dalton Schultz open combining for a total of 18 targets in which they saw facing Tampa. Let’s stick to a GPP for Dallas, starters may get pulled if the game gets out of reach.

Cash: J. Chase, J. Burrow, J. Mixon, Bengals DST

GPP: D. Schultz, N. Brown

Texans @ Broncos (-10) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 46.5)

Texans

Houston facing a double-digit spread on the road and odds-makers are not giving the rebuilding Texans a chance. Davis Mills their second-year signal caller does take care of the ball, and may give Denver a run for their money. Don’t be too quick to shoot down rookie running back Dameon Pierce too soon. Denver’s front formations favor opposing backs in order to take away the deep ball. Coach Lovey Smith is old school, if he chooses to play “keep away” from Wilson he will look to utilize Pierce.

Broncos

Russell Wilson will be much better at Mile High against the young Texans and will be ready to cook. Getting beat in Seattle in front of his old teammates had to sting, believe me, he’ll make a statement this weekend. Courtland Sutton will look like a god by being shadowed by rookie Derek Stingley Jr. who allowed the Colts’ Michael Pittman ( 9 REC/121YDS/1TD) to look like Marvin Harrison. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon may both get a goal-line carry in this spot and pretty much anyone in orange is viable.

Cash: R. Wilson, C. Sutton, J. Williams

GPP: J. Jeudy, M. Gordon

Cardinals @ Raiders (-6) 4:25 p.m. (O/U 51.5)

Cardinals

Murray and the Cards are looking at 0-2 to start the season as a touchdown dog in Vegas. A win would need him to step up and the Raiders are easily beaten through the air. Chargers QB Justin Herbert lit them up ( 279 YDS and 3 TDs). Murray has that same capability and will need some help from his deep-threat college teammate Marquise Brown. Running back James Connor has been a big part of Arizona’s scheme and will definitely get a sizable role again in this Sin-City battle.

Raiders

Derek Carr has to be my go-to QB this week. Mid-range salary ($6,200 DraftKings/$7,300 FanDuel) that won’t break the bank, high ceiling, and a game script with shoot-out written all over it. He’s linked to top 5 receiver Davante Adams and tight end Darren Waller. Plus with running back specialist Brandon Bolden missing practice, Josh Jacobs should see most of the snaps and goal-line work. Finally, I think we see a bit more of Hunter Renfrow this game. He has the skill set and saw 84% of the snaps, it’s only a matter of when Josh McDaniels throws him a bone.

Cash: K. Murray, D. Carr, M. Brown, D. Adams, J. Connor, D. Waller

GPP: J. Jacobs, H. Renfrow

Cash Core 4

D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Mixon/M. Andrews

GPP Core 4

C. Wentz /T. McClaurin /J. Wilson/K. Pitts

Stacks

K.Murray / M. Brown (ARI); D. Carr / D. Adams / D. Waller (LV); R. Wilson / C. Sutton / J. Jeudy; (DEN)

J. Goff / A. St. Brown / D. Swift (if healthy) (DET); C. Wentz / T. McClaurin / A. Gibson (WSH)

J. Burrow / J. Chase / J. Mixon (CIN)

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 2 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.

Welcome back to the NFL season, we have a loaded 13-game slate to chop up! Hey everybody I’m Joe DiCarlo, a new addition to the WinDailySports.com DFS writing squad, and welcome to my NFL Week One breakdown! I’m happy to be on board and ready to help you build some money-making lineups. After a long and busy offseason around the league, so let’s start analyzing these games…

Sunday Main Slate 9/11/22

Eagles @ Lions, 1 p.m. (+4) (O/U 49)

Eagles

The Eagles are in Detroit for what looks to be a slam dunk for Jalen Hurts to show off his new skill set and shiny new receiver A. J. Brown. Great stack, especially for cash games. Tight end Dallas Goedert will be in play too, since Hurts prefers throwing to the big fellas. We could also see a sprinkle of Devonta Smith but I think he is just a little too priced up, let’s not carried away. I’m fading running back Miles Sanders, he’s banged up with a hamstring, plus I’m feeling a Kenny Gainwell breakout this year. His salary is too cheap to pass up, and could easily produce three times his value against Detroit.

Lions

The Lions’ defense may still look bad on paper, but they will still put points on the scoreboard. Having one of the strongest O’lines in the league will help running back D’Andre Swift get back to the fantasy promise land again. PPR machine Amon-Ra St. Brown racked up double-digit targets in the final six games last season and quarterback Jared Goff came out saying he is his now go-to guy. To complete the trifecta is T. J. Hockenson if he can stay on the field. Goff loves to check it down and his tight end could benefit from it.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, A. J. Brown, Dallas Goedert

GPP: Kenny Gainwell, Amon-Ra St. Brown

Saints @ Falcons, 1 p.m. (+5.5) (O/U 42.5)

Saints

New Orleans looks to be at full strength on offense to start the year and will be getting eased back in facing Atlanta. Jameis Winston should do well in his first game back from an ACL tear, the Falcons bled out close to 4,000 air yards and 31 passing touchdowns in 2021. Receivers have a sweet match-up especially Michael Thomas, ($5,700 DK/$6,200 FD) but he’s a little risky since he hasn’t suited up in over a year and a half. But Alvin Kamara you can set and forget as one of your RB’s. He’s in one of the most smash spots this weekend projected to hit at least 20 FPTS.

Falcons 

Atlanta has a futures win total (O/U 4.5) across many of the sportsbooks…news flash, they are tanking in 2022! For this matchup, I’m out on everybody for DFS. Maybe a sprinkle of a little Kyle Pitts, the only proven pass-catcher on the squad. I can’t trust Marriota’s legs yet, especially against a Saints’ number-one-ranked run defense that averaged only 3.7 YPA. I can’t resist that he’s just so inexpensive, and in a game as a such a huge dog, tremendous value can be made from Mariota even in garbage time.

Cash: A. Kamara, Saints DST

GPP: J. Winston, M. Thomas, K. Pitts, M. Mariota

Jaguars @ Commanders, 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 44)

Jaguars

Year two for Trevor Lawrence will begin in Washington under new head coach Doug Pederson, who will look to reignite the dreadful offense in Jacksonville. Christian Kirk was also signed in free agency and got a huge multi-year (overpaid) contract, so he should see most of Lawrence‘s targets. Now that running back James Robinson has been given the green light for Week One, the Travis Etienne hype train has pumped its breaks for a minute. I’m out on the Jags except for TE, he’s worth the flyer at ($5,600 DK/$6,200 FD). Him and Trevor had a bro-mance going on back at Clemson and we may see Etienne get peppered with check-downs out of the backfield.

Commanders

Washington has something to be excited about this year… a slight upgrade at QB and a team name finally! Carson Wentz will start for his third team in three years and I just don’t feel any good vibes yet, but come on Jacksonville? The same team that pulled off the biggest upset of the year and cost him his job. Best believe Wentz will be out and ready to roll, way too cheap and a flyer for GPP. Rookie Johan Dotson has already formed some chemistry with him and has already solidified a starting spot. After all the chatter around Washington about Bryan Robinson, I can see Antonio Gibson playing with a chip on his shoulder. This week up against one of the worst run-defenses of 2021 (24th overall against the run; 125 rushing YPG.), Gibson will have a second chance to prove himself worthy of being the top back in town.

Cash: Antonio Gibson, T. Etienne

GPP: Johan Dotson, C. Wentz, T. Lawrence

Colts @ Texans, 1 p.m. (+ 8) ( O/U 45.5)

Colts

Indy traded away a third-round draft pick for a bargain with veteran QB Matt Ryan. Opposing defenses will have to respect the Colts’ passing game even more, which should open up the box for bell cow running back Jonathon Taylor. Given the eight-point spread and the Texans’ reputation for spilling out points, the Colts will lean on the run. A few darts I like are tight-end Mo Alie-Cox and rookie wide-out Alec Pierce, although the Colts’ alpha Michael Pittman will line up across from rookie Derek Stingley Jr.and is way under-priced, lock him up as a WR.

Texans

Sophomore quarterback Davis Mills could be chasing a double-digit lead by the Colts at halftime and forced to throw. But go-to guy Brandin Cooks may see a lot of Colts’ veteran corner Stephon Gilmore, sending Second-year receiver Nico Collins more balls in his direction. I didn’t forget about Houston’s stand-out rookie Dameon Pierce, leave him alone for the opener. Houston will be playing from behind mostly and forced to throw it more, and Rex Burkhead is their passing-down back for now.

Cash: J. Taylor, M. Pittman

GPP: N. Collins, M. Alie-Cox, A. Pierce

Browns @ Panthers 1 p.m. (-2.5)(O/U 41.5)

Browns

We gotta love the NFL and their scheduling… Browns will face their former number-one overall pick, Baker Mayfield, after deciding on Deshaun Watson in the off-season. Don’t get me wrong, I love the Baker revenge game narrative, but I feel Cleveland will show up to play some solid defense. Myles Garrett and Jadeveon Clowney will show up and keep Mayfield honest in this reunion. I predict low ownership for the Browns DST, sweet for GPP. And by the way, are we serious with Jacoby Brissett? Week 13 can not get here any soon for Watson to suit up. I have no interest this week in anybody on offense for Cleveland… Gimme Carolina’s D!

Panthers

We all knew Baker would win the job in Carolina and he deserves it. He’s not known for his numbers really, it’s his competitiveness. But the numbers will align this Sunday, he is way underpriced for one of the biggest games of his career. He’s got one of the most efficient receivers in D J Moore and the most electrifying players in the game of Christian McCaffrey at his disposal. Baker will look to put on a show and these two will benefit 100 percent.

Cash: C. McCaffrey, D. Moore, Carolina DST

GPP: B. Mayfield, Browns DST

Ravens @ Jets 1 p.m. (+7) (O/U 44.5)

Ravens

Let’s get one thing straight… the Ravens want to run the ball, but they have NOBODY to hand the ball off to. Kenyon Drake, Mike Davis? Is Dobbins going to be ready this week? Nope. Baltimore’s RB1 is Lamar Jackson, period. everyone else in the backfield since he took over has been second fiddle. The Jets were horrid against the run last year (24th, 125 YPG.) Don’t try to be cute and slip Mike Davis in your lineups either, not worth the risk if you ask me. Jackson will still have to throw too, and why not to his favorite target who finished in 2021 as TE1, Mark Andrews. Baltimore could have struck gold in the draft with rookie tight end Isaiah Likely, who had an awesome training camp and preseason…($2,500 on DK is a no-brainer) Second-year receiver Rashod Bateman should also see an uptick in usage, but he may have New York’s first round pick Sauce Gardner shadowing him.

Jets

New York is still not 100 percent on who will be starting at quarterback yet, I’m leaning towards Joe Flacco and the Jets do not want to rush Zach Wilson back too soon from surgery. Flacco is so priced down and I would throw him in a GPP. Starting at home against his former team where he won Super Bowl MVP, we just need 15 FPTS. to hit value. He would be surrounded by young talent, so Zach please sit this one out.

Update: Zach ruled out!

Cash: L. Jackson, M. Andrews

GPP: Joe Flacco, I. Likely

Pats @ Dolphins 1 p.m. (-3) (O/U 47)

Patriots

Former offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels landed a head coaching gig in Vegas, so here comes Joe Judge and Matt Patricia to the rescue. Head coach Bill Belichick never reveals anything to the public, so we can only speculate on their drafts and roster moves. Fellas it looks to me the only safe play is Mac Jones as a cheap GPP for now, but with so many other ways to go this week, why stress over drafting a Patriot in DFS? You could also go Rhamondre Stevenson too, with him in the news as getting all the passing down work and Damien Harris in his last year of his contract. A DeVante Parker revenge game in the mix perhaps? At ($4,800 DK/$5,700 FD) sure why not…even better without Byron Jones already ruled out.

Dolphins

Many eyes will be on QB Tua Tagolvailoa on Sunday afternoon. Forty-Niners’ former O.C. Mike McDaniel brought over some serious talent, trading for Tyreek Hill to line up opposite second-year sensation Jaylen Waddle, who may be still slightly banged up. The Cheetah (Hill) will hold the lion-share of the action for Miami if Waddle is not fully healed. The Pats also have a lot of inexperience in the secondary, Tyreek and Tua will look to exploit them in the open field. If you believe in the talent around Tua than you have to like him overall.

Cash: T. Hill

GPP: T. Tagovailoa, D. Parker, R. Stevenson, M. Jones,

Niners @ Bears 1 p.m.(+7) (O/U 41.5)

49ers

San Fran is rolling out with Trey Lance to take over the reigns for Jimmy G finally, but I feel he will have a few growing pains in his debut as the starter. Trey will need to get Deebo the ball if the Niners want to put any points on the board. Samuel is risky this week in what looks like a low-scoring game, but he is the centerpiece of this offense. The Bears have made some improvements on defense, stocking up in the draft and free-agency. Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn are still in town and will be waiting for their shot at Lance too. Another team I’d like to wait and see what happens before I invest in DFS, let’s be patient guys and gals.

Bears

Now everything I just wrote above, this Bears DST is smelling pretty good right? Trey Lance’s first start on the road at Soldier Field, I can see picks and sacks all day. But than Chicago has their own problems developing at the QB position with Justin Fields. He can easily have as bad a day as Lance against the Niners, who are no slouches on defense either. Pick your poison I’m fine with either or defenses, Chicago is extremely cheaper ($2,200 on DK, $3,800 on FD)

Update: G. Kittle may sit out

Cash: D. Samuel

GPP: Bears DST, 49ERS DST,

Steelers @ Bengals 1 p.m. (-6.5) (O/U 44.5)

Steelers

Pittsburgh named Trubisky as their starter with less than a week until the season opener, and he gets the defending AFC champs on the road. YIkes, way too many unknowns again here in this game. We still know that Steeler O-Line is shaky, so Mitch will need to use his legs or get rid of the ball fast. Guys, he, is dirt cheap ($5,000 DK/$6,400 FD).He will produce in fantasy because of his scrambling ability, let’s try him in a GPP. The Bengals as your defense would be pretty sneaky too, they have been very underrated and given a lot of headaches to opposing offenses all last year. Tight end Pat Freiermuth did look good catching 5 balls for 80 yards in August, and he is affordable on both formats too. If Mitch has to get rid of it quickly, Freiermuth could be a PPR hero.

Bengals

Cincinnati announced that franchise quarterback will be a go to start the season after having an emergency appendectomy in late July. The bad news is that as much as I like Joe Burrow, we can’t justify paying his mid-range salary against a divisional opponent. Joe Mixon, Ja’Marr Chase, and Tee Higgins are all in the same boat, too expensive to start. Oh…well what about the new tight end in town Hayden Hurst? He is definitely on my radar at that discount ($3,300 on DK, $4,900 on FD).

Cash: Pat Freiermuth

GPP: Hayden Hurst, Bengals DST, M. Trubisky

Chiefs @ Cardinals 4:25 p.m.(+4.5) (O/U 54)

Chiefs

Here we go, now we’re talking with a 54 point total, a shoot-out in the desert! Mahomes and his new entourage of receivers want to come out guns blazing in this match-up. 159 targets left for Miami when they traded Tyreek Hill, so we love Kelce even more this year. Totally comfortable paying up on this stack. As for the new faces Ju Ju, MVS, and the rookie Skyy Moore, we can make it a double stack with a side of CEH. Across the board their price tags are reasonable, but just don’t get too carried away.

Cardinals

Kyler Murray got his pay day this off-season, it’s showtime. The former number one overall pick in 2019 has his work cut out for him this Sunday and will need to keep up the pace with Mahomes. He’s not as weaponized and will need some help from James Connor in the ground game. KC has been suspect to the rush, and in PPR, Connor could benefit this game. Murray himself could scurry for chunks of runs which he’s been famous for.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, CEH, J. Smith-Schuster, K. Murray, J. Connor

GPP: MVS, S. Moore

Packers @ Vikings 4:25 p.m. (+1.5) (O/U 48)

Packers

Can the back-to-back reigning MVP return to greatness again without his main man Davante Adams? The water is still a little muddy in Green Bay for who will be favored by Aaron Rodgers. He has a couple rookies in Watson and Doubs, over-the-hill guys in Watkins and Cobb, Tonyan coming off an ACL, and Allen Lazard who recently started missing practice. In cash I’m not getting the warm and fuzzies from any of them, only Rodgers alone(super sneaky for a GPP). A little history from not too long ago, before Adams emerged on the scene The Pack were pretty run-heavy. Their O-line today is one of the best in the NFL, so they may just rip a page out of from 2015. Aaron Jones and A J Dillon probably the best one-two punch there is and Green Bay may utilize it until the passing game clears up.

Vikings

Minnesota hired the Rams’ O.C. Kevin O’Connell as their new head coach this off-season, who plans on opening up the passing game. So much hype is over Justin Jefferson becoming the 2022 version of Cooper Kupp and the kid has the talent to make it happen. Going up against one of the best corners Jaire Alexander and in a new offensive scheme, we can’t risk all that salary this time. Pivotting to Adam Thielen may be the smarter play here, who is cheaper and viable in the red-zone.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, A. Dillon, A. Thielen

Giants @ Titans 4:25 p.m. (-5.5) (O/U 43.5)

Giants

New York made some changes in the front office and at head coach by signing Brian Dabal, Buffalo’s former O.C. who molded the number one QB Josh Allen. So will Daniel Jones be the next Allen? For his measly salary, he’s worth the risk. 3X value is foreseeable against this Tennessee defense (25th in PaYDA/G in 2021) Saquon Barkley has been pumped up by the media, word out of camp is he will be more utilized on offense, especially in the passing game. The salary is mid-range and our model shows him to reach decent value (16.5 DK/14.7 FD FPTS.) Tough match-up though… Number one ranked rushing defense. Let’s hope Dabal keeps his word and throws it to his stud in the backfield.

Titans

After losing to the Bengals and throwing 4 picks in the AFC Wild Card game, quarterback Ryan Tannehill will be out for blood. The Giants are even worse this year in their secondary, cutting loose James Bradburry, replacing him with former Titan Adoree Jackson. Derrick Henry is also back at full strength, and is set to regain his seat at the throne, owning all the goal line work.Tennessee could get up to a comfy lead in this one, and he’ll be used to eat up that clock.

Cash: D. Henry, S. Barkley

GPP: R. Tannehill, D. Jones

Raiders @ Chargers 4:25 p.m. (-3.5) (O/U 52.5)

Raiders

Gotta love the league and the way they schedule, a rematch of the sudden death game that put Vegas into the playoffs back in January. Derek Carr led the way to victory last season, but this time he is bringing more to the table…his college buddy Davante Adams. This game needs no intro, get these two in a stack, and let’s not forget about Waller, the Chargers were dead last defending the tight end in 2021. We like all three here and have them locked in for 3X value.

Chargers

LA lost that game on bad play calling, not by their performance by any means. Justin Herbert and company have been counting down the days to sink their teeth into this lousy Raider defense again. Keenan Allen is up in age but showing no signs of regression. Mike Williams got paid and has a huge ceiling. Ekeler will ball out as usual with his safe floor. It’s ON in LA to cap off the afternoon.

Cash/GPP: J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, A. Ekeler, D. Adams, D. Carr, D. Waller

Cash Core 4

A. Kamara, L. Jackson, T. Kelce, T. Hill

GPP Core 4

A. Rodgers, P. Freiermuth, D J Moore, A J Dillon

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce J. Herbert/K.Allen/M.Williams B. Mayfield/D. Moore/CMC

D. Carr/D. Adams/D. Waller

Thank you for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord hit me up @JDiCarlo78. Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport.