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Walker Buehler

9/27 DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: Buehler and Berrios Bonanza

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

This is the final Friday slate of the season and it’s been a joy providing pitching picks for you guys. That’s why we’re going to provide a bonus selection this week and give you six recommendations. That’s indicative of how much I like this slate and it should be a great day for pitching. With that in mind, let’s get into our 9/27 DFS pitching picks!

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9/27 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers of the Day

Walker Buehler, LAD at SF

DK ($11,700) FD ($10,200)

This is easily the best cash game pitcher on the board. Not only do we have one of the best pitchers in the league here, we also have him in a superior matchup. Let’s begin with that opponent, facing a Giants team who ranks 28^th in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s especially scary in a place like Oracle Park, which is easily one of the toughest parks in baseball. All of that make Buehler the best play of the day, with the Dodgers righty pitching to a 3.25 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 29 percent K rate. In his last start against San Fran, Buehler pitched seven scoreless innings while striking out nine batters. Buehler and the Dodgers are a –190 favorite in this fixture, if you needed any more incentive.

Jose Berrios, MIN at KC

DK ($10,800) FD ($9,600)

While Berrios has been sliding recently, it has lowered his price to this intriguing number. We’re still talking about a guy who has a 3.70 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. What really makes him enticing is the fact that he’s gone more than four innings in all 32 of his starts this season. That’s an unbelievable floor and it’s led to him scoring at least 39 FanDuel points in more than half of his starts. That 39-point mark appears to be very likely outcome against an offense like this, with the Royals ranked 25th in runs scored, 24^th in OBP, 27^th in OPS and 24^th in xwOBA. That’s why Berrios and the Twins enter this matchup as a –230 favorite.

9/27 DFS Pitching GPP Plays of the Day

Anthony DeSclafani, CIN at PIT

DK ($9,900) FD ($8,400)

DeSclafani is a personal favorite of mine and he’s just one pitch away from being an elite starter. That’s really evident when you see that he’s allowed two runs or fewer in 17 of his 30 starts this season while allowing one or less 15 of those. He’s currently in the best stretch of his career right now too, pitching to a 2.05 ERA and 0.77 WHIP over his last seven starts. That’s horrific news for a Pirates lineup who will be without Josh Bell and Starling Marte. Those absences have led to Pittsburgh ranking bottom-five in runs scored, OBP and OPS for the month of September.

Vince Velasquez, PHI vs. MIA

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,600)

Velasquez is one of the riskiest pitchers in the league but facing the Marlins is a good way to limit that risk. The reason for that is because Miami sits bottom-two in runs scored, OBP, OPS and xwOBA. That’s a perfect recipe for a guy like Velasquez, with the right-hander posting a 4.21 career xFIP and 26 percent K rate. His swing-and-miss stuff has been pristine recently too, generating a 10.2 K/9 rate over his last 80 innings pitched. Vegas appears to like Velasquez too, making him a –180 favorite in this tasty matchup.

9/27 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

Ivan Nova, CWS vs. DET

DK ($5,600) FD ($6,000)

Nova’s price is way too friendly to avoid. While he’s mixed duds and gems all season long, this is one of those instances where he can produce for us. The reason for that is because he faces the Tigers, with the Motor City Kitties ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, xwOBA and K rate. That puts any pitcher in play against them, especially a guy who’s had a resurgent season half. Over his last 13 starts, Nova is pitching to a 3.15 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. In his last two starts against this putrid offense, Nova has allowed just two runs across 13 innings of action, proving that these price tags are ridiculous.

Jose Urquidy, HOU at LAA

DK ($7,500) FD ($7,000)

I feel bad for the Angels. They’re currently without Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, Justin Upton and Tommy LaStella. That’s led to them sending out one of the worst lineups in baseball, which is evident by the fact that they have just 70 runs scored this month, the lowest total in the Majors. You can’t send out a lineup with guys like Michael Hermosillo, Jared Walsh, Taylor Ward, Kaleb Cowart and Anthony Bemboom and expect to succeed. That squarely puts Urquidy in play, as he’s actually allowed just one run in five of his last six starts while generating a 0.90 WHIP and 9.3 K.9 rate in that span. All of this has him and the Astros entering this matchup s a –210 favorite.

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Jose Urquidy Over 4.5 Strikeouts

This prop is so low because the Angels almost never strike out but this is a different team. You can see that in the Urquidy write-up, with half of their lineup injured. That’s a nightmare against a pitcher who is rolling like Urquidy and I would be shocked if he doesn’t get at least six Ks.

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5 years ago 0 comments

9/21 DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: Manaea is the Man

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

I’m looking to follow up some great MLB DFS picks from last night with another batch of winning hurlers. It’s a nine-game slate with a couple big names and some fabulous value plays among a pretty large mess of unreliable arms and likely pitch counts. But I know we’re going to find some gems in this edition of 9/21 DFS pitching picks.

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9/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays

SeanManaea, OAK vs. TEX

DK ($9,800) FD($9,200)

Manaea is a huge home favorite (-340), he’s backed by a potent offensewith a high implied total (6.00), and the Rangers offense has been scufflinglately. Over the course of the season, Texas has struck out at a 25.7% rate, whichis third worst among MLB teams. Manaea (2-0, 0.50 ERA in three starts this season) gave up justthree hits and one walk while striking out six through 6.0 scoreless IP againstthis same Rangers team on Sunday – in a much tougher hitting environment inArlington. I feel comfortable going right back to the well in cash games andGPPs, as the 27-year-old hurler had 11 swinging strikes and 19 called strikesin that last outing.

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. KC

DK ($10,900) FD ($9,400)

The Twins are large favorites against the Royals and while I don’t like Berrios for a monster K game here in 9/21 DFS, he’s still a viable cash game play with the Kansas City implied run total languishing at just 3.39. Keep an eye on the weather before this one locks, because we could see a late start – but deploy him with confidence in a slate lacking in elite pitching options. The Twins offense should get him a win, and on FanDuel he could easily notch a quality start bonus – as he’s gone at least 6 IP and has given up less than 3 ER in three of his last four starts.

9/21 DFS Pitching GPP Plays

WalkerBuehler, LAD vs. COL

DK ($12,300) FD($11,100)

Buehler willlikely be on a pitch count, so he’s way too expensive for cash gamesconsidering he’s likely looking at around 5-6 IP. Still, his low WHIP (1.01) andelite strikeout rate (29.4%) mean he very well could fan 10 hitters even onsuch a short leash. The Rockies may have gotten a few licks on Clayton Kershawlast night, but they have a team K rate of 23.7% and shouldn’t have muchsuccess against this dominant young arm.

MaxFried, ATL vs. SF

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,600)

Fried (16-6, 4.25 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits while striking out just two hitters (and walking three Nationals) in just 2.1 innings in Washington during his last outing, but he’s a much better pitcher at home this season and he draws a great matchup against the Giants. Fried has been battered a bit in two consecutive starts and has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts, but that should help keep some of the ownership off him here in a start where he looks like he could get a little chalky for the DFS Pros. There’s plenty to like once you check out the home/away splits in a little more detail and take into account the sometimes punchless Giants offense.

9/21 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

JohnnyCueto, SF at ATL

DK ($9,600) FD($7,800)

I’m a lot more interested in Cueto as a GPP play on FD, where he’s essentially a punt at 7,800 and doesn’t have to keep guys off base. The veteran should have a much easier path to making value by striking out a handful of Braves, even if he gets knocked out after 4 innings. There’s plenty of risk here because Cueto only has 6 Ks in his last 10 IP, but the price is right for FD GPPs and I’m looking for some contrarian angles in the mid-tier since Fried might be a little more chalky. Grabbing the other side of that chalk could pay off.

Justus Sheffield, SEA at BAL

DK ($7,900) FD ($7,300)

Once again, it’s a huge risk playing Sheffield in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, but few pitchers on this slate have better strikeout potential against a weak opponent like the Orioles, and there’s an outside chance his team gets him a lead and a possible win. Forget the fact that he hasn’t notched a win in 2019 yet and focus on the metrics: He’s carrying a 10.13 K/9, 4.22 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA through his appearances despite an admittedly bad ERA, but his 12.4 SwStr% is promising.

You have to take some chances to win GPPs and I’ll have my fair share of Sheffield lineups on FD, though he’s a much riskier play on DK with such a high walk rate (4.91 BB/9 in his career).

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Jose Berrios Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Berrios is a solid pitcher, but he hasn’t been dominant in too many games back-to-back this season. These Royals will be focused on putting the ball in play after chalking up 11 team Ks in 33 ABs last night, and they only had 3 total Ks against Berrios in a June meeting.

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Zach Davies Under 3.5 Strikeouts

Davies doesn’t miss bats and could have an early night against a Pirates lineup sporting a 19.5 team K% — and has whiffed just 13 times in their last 23.1 IP against him. I fully expect the Pirates to have more success against Brewers pitching in this one, and knock Davis out of there before he gets to 4 Ks.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

9/10 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

Tonight’s 9/10 MLB DFS slate is packed with SP2 options in good matchups, and we also have a Coors Field game with an expected run total of 13.5. This is going to make paying for these bats extremely difficult with the current SP pricing meaning you are going to have to take some chances or fade the game completely.

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On theDefense

WalkerBuehler vs. Baltimore Orioles

$11,600 FD / $12,300 DK

The Orioles have little to play for besides personal gloryat this point. Baltimore is also striking out 22.7 percent of the time versusRHPs with a low wRC+ of 88. Despite Buehler’s dicey track record pitching onthe road, he has struggled more heavily against much better teams. Which theOrioles are not, especially as of late coming in 25^th in MLB in runsscored over the last seven days. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with tons ofoptions, Buehler could leave you walking to the cash line at a low ownership.

ZacGallen vs. New York Mets

$9,100 FD / $11,200 DK

The Diamondbacks at Mets currently has the lowest expected run total on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. We also have way too many pitchers worth taking a shot on tonight to write about everyone and I am seriously trying to get separation. Although the Mets are highly unpredictable and swinging hot bats as of late, Gallen has had success this season versus New York, allowing two earned runs over five innings with five strikeouts the last time he faced them at home. With a positive park shift heading to Citi Field tonight I am taking a shot here.

WadeMiley vs. Oakland Athletics

$8,900 FD / $9,300 DK

I have had a hard time taking Miley Coyote seriously this season. In past DFS years he has absolutely killed me. Like in his last start facing Seattle who lit him up for five earned runs without registering an out. Well, tonight I say he bounces back facing an Athletics team he has a 1.83 ERA versus over three starts this season with 11 strikeouts. If you wanted to start to get some Colorado bats on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, you could consider using him as your SP1 in GPP play.

Defcon 4

The savings department on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate is worse than a .99 cent sale at a dollar store. They all either have bad matchups or are just plain bad. So, in order to get some Colorado bats in, the risk level must go to Defcon 4.

NathanEovaldi vs. Toronto Blue Jays

$6,600 FD / $7,300 DK

The Blue Jays are striking out 25.9 percent of the timeversus RHPs with a .303 wOBA and wRC+ of 88. Toronto is also batting a pathetic.179 over the last seven with a wRC+ of 54, which certainly raises my attentionlevel. Regardless after watching Eovaldi tame the Twins in his last startallowing only one earned run over five innings, some serious consideration onthis 9/10 MLB DFS slate needs to be given here.

RonaldBolanos vs. Chicago Cubs

$6,400 FD / $6,800 DK

This is where we at on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate, with Ronald Bolanos. On most nights I would rather light my head on fire and put it out with a hammer rather than use a pitcher like this, especially in this match up. The Cubs are one of the best offensive teams facing RHPs this season and offer huge blow up potential. This is total risk here, but Bolanos did tame the D’Backs in Arizona allowing two earned runs over five innings in his only start. With a strong park shift at home I am taking a shot here in large field GPPs.

Name	Team	W	L	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	BABIP	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Walker Buehler	Dodgers	12	3	159.1	10.73	1.58	1.02	0.297	42.50%	12.40%	3.28	3.3
Wade Miley	Astros	13	4	156	7.73	3.17	1.27	0.269	50.50%	15.70%	3.35	4.42
Zac Gallen	Diamondbacks	3	4	68.1	10.8	4.21	0.66	0.29	38.30%	8.30%	2.5	4.14
Ronald Bolanos	Padres	0	1	6	6	3	0	0.263	38.90%	0.00%	3	5.2
Nathan Eovaldi	Red Sox	1	0	48.1	9.12	4.47	1.86	0.307	45.60%	20.40%	5.77	4.82

On theAttack

There are a ton of options to attack on this 9/10 MLB DFSslate. The top two are obviously the Cardinals and Rockies tonight in Colorado.So, here are three others to look at tonight if you are fading this game. WhichI do not recommend tonight.

Ty Blachvs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Talk about ugly? Blach has allowed 20 earned runs over hislast four starts. Now he is home facing a powerful Dodgers team in a small parklike Baltimore. On this 9/10 MLB DFS slate I am all in here.

Notable Bats

A.J. Pollock is posting a .394 wOBA versus LHPs and is 3-for-8 with a home run off Blach.

Justin Turner wallops LHPS to the tune of a .384 wOBAwhile going 5-for-16 lifetime off Blach with a home run. Keep your eyes peeled herethough, he has an ankle injury and may sit.

Chris Taylor has a .362 wOBA versus LHPs whilebatting .318 facing Blach over 22 at ABs.

MitchKeller vs. San Francisco Giants

Although the Giants are hit or miss most nights, but they docome cheap on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate. With Keller allowing 15 earned runs overhis last 16 innings I will be sprinkling in some Giants bats tonight.

Notable Bats

Mike Yastrzemski Is posting a .341 wOBA versus RHPs battingleadoff most nights.

Buster Posey is posting a .324 wOBA versus RHPs whilebatting .400 over the last seven days.

Brandon Belt has not homered in 10 games now puttinghim on my watch list.

TrevorBauer vs. Seattle Mariners

Talk about change, Bauer has allowed 28 earned runs over hislast five starts. Despite Seattle batting .183 over the last seven days I seesome serious runs scored at low ownership on this 9/10 MLB DFS slate.

Notable Bats

Daniel Vogelbach is sporting a .367 wOBA versus RHPsthis season

Kyle Seager is 8-for-20 lifetime off Bauer with sixRBI while posting a .327 wOBA versus RHPs this season.

Omar Narvaez has a .349 wOBA versus RHPs batting cleanup.

Name	Team	G	PA	HR	R	RBI	SB	BB%	K%	AVG	wOBA RHP	wOBA LHP
Justin Turner	Dodgers	131	538	27	80	67	2	9.10%	16.40%	0.291	0.363	0.394
Chris Taylor	Dodgers	107	356	11	43	47	7	9.00%	26.70%	0.266	0.315	0.384
A.J. Pollock	Dodgers	72	287	13	43	39	4	7.70%	22.30%	0.261	0.303	0.362
Mike Yastrzemski	Giants	91	342	19	55	51	2	7.60%	25.70%	0.269	0.341	0.393
Buster Posey	Giants	105	412	6	40	35	0	8.00%	16.30%	0.257	0.324	0.303
Brandon Belt	Giants	139	555	16	70	56	4	13.90%	20.00%	0.231	0.323	0.245
Kyle Seager	Mariners	88	367	21	46	56	2	9.80%	20.70%	0.246	0.367	0.376
Daniel Vogelbach	Mariners	130	514	30	71	74	0	16.50%	25.70%	0.214	0.349	0.325
Omar Narvaez	Mariners	116	431	19	58	49	0	10.00%	19.30%	0.278	0.327	0.277

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

Blach is is poor enough where most of the Dodgers bats would achieve this over tonight, including Turner.

Even though Buehler is a top tier starter his home/road splits favor home. Mancini hits RHPs well batting .282 this season and I am not expecting a shutout here. Over all the way.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/27 MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

We have a nice full schedule tonight on this 8/27 MLB DFS slate, including the Red Sox at Colorado with Rick Porcello on the mound. With a lot of top tier starters going it will be important, especially on DraftKings, to find value at the SP2 position to create enough flexibility to roster a competitive lineup. So, with NFL right around the corner, and an incredibly busy day ahead of me, I bring you today’s top pitching plays.

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JustinVerlander vs. Tampa Bay Rays

$12,300 FD / $12,000 DK

Verlander is the top dawg on this 8/27 MLB DFS slate, even if not necessarily getting the best matchup. Although the Rays are one of the better offenses versus RHPs, they still strike out 22 percent of the time. The last time Verlander faced the Rays he allowed one earned run over seven innings while fanning nine. The price is high, but so is the safe upside.

Walker Buehlervs. San Diego Padres

$11,600 FD / $11000 DK

With the Padres boasting a whopping .298 wOBA versus RHPs, and a 26.6 percent strikeout rate, Buehler is a another top dawg on this 8/27 MLB DFS slate. The last time he faced the Padres he struck out 15 batters while allowing only one earned run in a masterful complete game performance. Now factor in the has thrown three shutouts in his last seven starts and this one seems to easy.

Luis Castillovs. Miami Marlins

$11,000 FD / $10,000 DK

One of the only teams better to attack versus RHPs than the Padres, is the Marlins. They are striking out 25.5 percent of the time and are 30^th in MLB in both wOBA, and wRC+. With RHBs posting a .180 average versus Castillo, and an extremely right-handed heavy lineup, Castillo should dominate tonight on this 8/27 MLB DFS slate as he goes fishing for strikeouts against this simply horrible team.

Mike Sorokavs. Toronto Blue Jays

$8,800 FD / $9,300 DK

Although I would make sure to roster at least one of the three starters listed above as my SP1 on DK for this 8/27 MLB slate, if I was to take a shot, Soroka would top the list. The Blue Jays are striking out 25.6 percent of the time versus RHPs while posting a .311 wOBA, which is 25^th in MLB. Even though he gets less than a favorable park shift taking the mound in Toronto, Soroka has managed to navigate the Dodgers, Nationals, and Twins as of late which leads me to believe he can easily cage the Blue Jays tonight.

Adam Plutko vs.Detroit Tigers

$7,600 FD / $6,500 DK

With a Coors Field game on this 8/27 MLB DFS slate you are going to want to take some chances tonight and hope to hit some value so you can roster some of them big bats. Snuggled right in between the Marlins, and Padres as the worst teams in MLB facing RHPs, is the not so mighty Detroit Tigers. Despite allowing five earned runs the last time he faced this terrible lineup, over his last two starts facing the Yankees, and Mets, he has only allowed five earned runs over 12 1/3 innings while striking out eight. This may not sound that great but, for $6,500 on DK I would be more than happy with similar numbers facing a Tigers team that strikes out a lot more than both previous mentioned teams.

Adrian Houservs. St. Louis Cardinals

$7,500 FD / $5,000 DK

I know what you are thinking, why attack the Cardinals after last night? The answer is simple, especially on DK, salary. Although I would only use Houser tonight as a GPP play on FD for the price, at that $5,000 salary on DK, boy I sure salivate at the thought of that extra spending power. The last time Houser faced the Cardinals in St. Louis he only allowed one earned run over 5 1/3 innings while fanning six. Over his last three starts in general he has only allowed three earned runs over 18 1/3 innings with 20 strikeouts. This 8/27 MLB DFS slate has the potential to be an exciting one, and this could be the sleeper play of the night.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/21 DFS Pitching Picks

5 years ago

written by

Hump Day offers a smattering of daytime baseball but the best cash plays for our 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks come out at night. With the usual 15-game slate, expect solid choices for all formats.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. DET

DK ($12,400) FD ($12,500)

It begins and ends with Verlander for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks when it comes to best cash game options. Yes, it’s going to cost you, but Verlander has put up at least 30 FanDuel points in all but two starts dating back to April 8. He’s been freaking Lights Out over his last six starts, recording at least 10 Ks in each, putting within the outer edge of his first 300-K season. Barring the unforeseen, Verlander will push the streak to seven at the expense of a Tigers team that is third only to the Mariners and Rangers in batter’s strikeouts (1,219). You don’t need a lot of fancy next gen numbers with this pick: Ante up and watch the K’s come.

Charlie Morton, TB vs. SEA

DK ($11,100) FD ($11,600)

Easily the best play among the daytime starters, Morton has helped deliver the long green in his past three starts, having produced FanDuel totals of 46, 42 and 55 points. He’s pitching at home in the Trop, where opponents have managed a .197 batting average and where Morton has a K:BB rate of 105:16 over 75.2 innings at home. Expensive? Yes, but if you’re playing an afternoon slate, there’s no other pitcher that comes close to giving you what Morton can provide.

This should be a dual act of Morton either fanning batters at will (remember, the Mariners lead the majors with 1,237 Ks from their hitters) or watching his 48.7% ground ball rate improve a tick or two. Seattle’s lineup doesn’t look like the Triple-A offense the Tigers will have in Houston tonight, but it’s one that is essentially playing for their fans at 10:10am.

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. TOR

DK ($11,400) FD ($11,000)

Like Verlander, Buehler finds himself in an ideal scenario: at home against a free-swinging team that’s allergic to walks. Slightly less expensive than V-Squared, Buehler also has lacked Verlander’s consistency, having pitched a combined 10 innings in his last two starts, but I love the FanDuel projection (41.70 points) for him tonight. Buehler has a sick, sick, sick K:BB rate of 10.57:1.66. That number is more perverse when looking at his K:BB rate when pitching at Dodger Stadium, as Buehler sports a 94:7 rate in 73.1 innings tossed at home. To paraphrase a line of the song “Walking in LA” by the 1980s new wave group Missing Persons, nobody walks in LA, especially when Buehler is on the mound.

Toronto is 23rd in batter’s strikeouts, but for all the future talent brimming in their lineup, the Blue Jays are 28th in the majors with a .304 OBP. Do not count on that number improving after Wednesday night. In short, Buehler is money well spent for the 8/21 DFS Pitching Picks.

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8/21 DFS Pitching GPP Picks

Mike Minor, TEX vs. LAA

DK ($10,400) FD ($9,300)

He’s matched up well against the Angels, having gone 3-0 with a 2.08 ERA in five starts against them. Minor put up 58 FanDuel points against them on April 16 and followed that with a solid 34 FDP in a May 25 start before a 16 FDP clunker versus Team Trout on July 2. His ability to reduce his fly ball rate (40%) is a key element behind his underrated performance this season and is also a welcomed fact considering how the ball can fly in Arlington on a hot August night.

Minor also brings a 12:7% HR:BB rate to the party and does come into this start with a lot of DFS momentum, recording 52 and 67 FanDuel points in his last two starts. The Angels managed just 13 hits in a double-header split on Tuesday, and I don’t suspect their bats will come alive against Minor.

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. NYY

DK ($9,600) FD ($7,700)

This sets to be a trap game for those who like to stack Yankees batters. Fiers is Cy Young-caliber at Oakland Coliseum, where he has a 7-2 record with a 2.89 ERA while allowing hitters to get him at a .215 clip. He’s a bit pricey at DraftKings and does come off his worst DFS scoring performance since May 1, managing just 18 FanDuel points against the Tigers (!!!). However, he has delivered at least 30 FanDuel points in three of his last four starts at home. If there is any concern regarding Fiers, it’s the 5.99 K/9 rate he brings to the table.

That’s a tad unnerving, especially considering the level of lumber the Yanks will have in the lineup, but since Fiers is at home, you have to give him the edge and simply trust he can keep his infielders busy while hoping his 39.5% fly ball rate doesn’t take a sharp turn.

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8/21 DFS Pitching Punt Pick

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. WAS

DK ($5,900) FD ($7,200)

Musgrove is a roller coaster, but what fun he can be when he’s on. He comes off a solid outing against the Cubs that resulted in 47 FanDuel points, continuing a season-long trend that has seen him either blow up DFS lineups or become an unsung hero to those crazy enough to run with him. Musgrove has allowed three or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts and is also on a 10-start stretch that has seen him walk two or fewer batters eight times.

The Nats’ offensive onslaught was slowed on Tuesday night, and if you’re a believer that it’s a sign of regression from Washington, boy, do I have a sleeper play for you.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/15 MLB DFS Pitching Picks and MKF Prop

Wes Anderson 5 years ago

written by Wes Anderson

The 8/15 MLB DFS slate is lacking in the pitching department, to say the least, especially when you get to the main schedule options. But you have to start a pitcher or two on this 8/15 MLB DFS slate, so here are four pitching suggestions from Win Daily Sports.

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Walker Buehler vs. Miami Marlins

DraftKings – $10,700 FanDuel – $11,800

You may have to play the 8/15 MLB DFS all-day schedule just so you can get a piece of Walker Buehler. He easily is the top pitching option for the day. He has a 3.08 ERA and a 29.1% K% in 2019. And he faces a Marlins’ offense that has a .237 batting average, .123 ISO and 25% K% against right-handed pitching this season. Expect a big performance from the Dodgers’ Buehler today.

Sonny Gray vs. St. Louis Cardinals

DraftKings – $9,100 FanDuel – $9,800

Sonny Gray has been locked in over the last 30 days. In that time he has a 2.08 ERA and a 9.49 K/9 while holding the opposition to a .171 batting average. The Reds’ hurler should keep it going on this 8/15 MLB DFS slate as the Cardinals are not a big threat against right-handed pitching. The St. Louis offense has a .159 ISO and a .305 wOBA versus righties in 2019.

Yu Darvish vs. Philadelphia Phillies

DraftKings – $9,700 FanDuel – $9,400

The Cubs’ Yu Darvish has a 28.6% K% this season and has started to settle in as the guy the organization thought they were getting when he landed his monster contract as a free agent. While this is not the best of matchups for Darvish, the Cubs’ right-hander will be an okay option on this 8/15 MLB DFS slate if he can avoid surrendering too many long balls, which has been an Achilles heel of his. He is allowing 1.77 HR/9 in 2019. But with the Phillies owning just a .170 ISO versus righties this season, you can gamble that Darvish can keep the ball in the field of play on Thursday.

Andrew Heaney vs. Chicago White Sox

DraftKings – $9,000 FanDuel – $6,400

It may not be a terrible plan to punt pitching on this 8/15 MLB DFS schedule. If that is the approach you end up taking, the Angels’ Andrew Heaney should get some consideration on FanDuel. The right-hander has some strikeout potential with a 26.9% K%, while the White Sox are being punched out at a 26.4% clip by righties this season.

Monkey Knife Fight Pitching Props

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The Cubs’ Yu Darvish has a strikeout prop at 6.5 for his matchup with the Phillies. The over is in play here. In four of his last five games, Darvish has reached at least seven strikeouts.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

8/9 DFS Pitching Picks: Buehler? Buehler? Buehler?

Joel Bartilotta 5 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

This article is full of players that I haven’t written up at all this season and that actually makes me feel good. I think we found some gems here at some affordable prices and we’re really hitting our stride over these last two months. We also have another free Monkey Knife Fight play for you and that’s a great sign considering I’ve hit eight of my last 10 plays! Let’s get into our 8/9 DFS Pitching Plays!

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8/9 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitchers

Walker Buehler, LAD vs. ARI

DK ($11,500) FD ($11,400)

Buehler is sneakily putting his hat in the ring for N.L. Cy Young and it’s a wonder why more people aren’t talking about this kid. If you take out one flaky start at Coors Field, Buehler is pitching to a 1.80 ERA and 0.78 WHIP while striking out 90 batters in 65.2 innings over his last 10 starts. Those are bonkers statistics and it’s even scarier when he’s at home. Since the beginning of last season, Buehler has a 2.30 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 10.8 K/9 rate at Dodger Stadium. Facing Arizona is simply a bonus, with Buehler allowing just four runs and 11 baserunners across 15 innings in his last two starts against the D’Backs while striking out 20 batters. That’s no surprise with Arizona ranked 16th in xwOBA and 18th in xSLG. Not to mention, Buehler enters this game as a –200 favorite with the Diamondbacks projected for fewer than four runs.

Julio Teheran, ATL at MIA

DK ($8,800) FD ($9,000)

It’s strange to recommend Teheran as a cash game pitcher but I’ve been riding him all season when he faces the Marlins. In three starts against Miami this season, Teheran is pitching to a 0.00 ERA and 0.70 WHIP while striking out 15 batters in 18 innings of action. Yes, that’s three shutouts and it’s really no surprise when you consider this matchup. The Marlins currently rank bottom-three in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, xwOBA, SLG and xSLG. That’s particularly scary considering this is arguably the best pitcher’s park in baseball.

8/9 DFS Pitching GPP Plays

Yu Darvish, CHC at CIN

DK ($9,200) FD ($9,400)

I don’t want to toot my own horn but I posted this in our Slack channel on June 26. —>Since then, Darvish has at least 42 FanDuel points in four of his last six starts while providing a 2.78 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in that span. More importantly, he has 68 Ks across his last 53.2 innings pitched, which is simply one of the best K rates in the Majors. That’s the guy that I’ve been waiting for all season long and we have to love this improved play in a matchup like this. Not only did the Reds get rid of Yasiel Puig and Scooter Gennett at the trade deadline, they also may be without Derek Dietrich (IL) for this game. That’s truly frightening when you consider that this lineup already ranks 22nd in runs scored, 23rd in OPS, 29th in xSLG and 26th in xwOBA.

Caleb Smith, MIA vs. ATL

DK ($10,000) FD ($9,500)

Smith is actually a decent cash game play too, as he simply has some of the best stuff in the league. A 3,35 ERA and 1.05 WHIP speaks loudly but a 30.2 percent K rate is downright incredible. In addition, Smith has at least 6 Ks in 15 of his 18 starts this season, which is why he scored at least 30 FanDuel points in all 15 of those games. Getting to pitch in a spacious ballpark like Marlins Park should only help, with Smith generating a 2.66 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 11.4 K/9 rate at home this season. That totally limits the risk from this tough matchup and the implied run total of 4.1 for the Braves tells you that Vegas agrees with this assessment.

8/9 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

Brad Keller, KC at DET

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,800)

I only call this a punt play because I anticipate Keller being one of the lowest owned pitchers on this slate. These numbers truly surprised me and Keller has established himself as the Royals best pitcher. A 3.95 ERA and 1.33 WHIP may look like nothing special but he’s really turned things around recently. Not only has Keller thrown at least 5.2 innings in six-straight starts, he’s also pitching to a 2.20 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in that span. He did that damage against good offenses like the Twins, Braves and Nationals, as he’ll get quite the cupcake matchup here. In fact, the Tigers rank 29th in xwOBA, 30th in wOBA, 29th in runs scored, 30th in OBP and 28th in K rate. That makes it no surprise that Keller threw eight one-run innings the last time he faced the Motor City Kitties on July 13 en route to a season-high 52 FanDuel points.

Cal Quantrill, SD vs. COL

DK ($6,200) FD ($7,000)

The Rockies are just horrible right now. Losing 23 of their last 31 games says a lot and much of it has to do with their road offense. After ranking 29th in road OPS last season, Colorado finds themselves 25th in runs scored, 29th in OPS and 30th in OBP on the road this year. They also sit 23rd in K rate and they’re simply one of the best offenses to exploit outside of Coors Field. That’s big for an average arm like Quantrill, who’s actually in the best stretch of his career right now. A 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP for the season is impressive in its own right but he also has a 1.84 ERA and 0.92 WHIP over his last seven appearances. That’s all you can ask for from such a cheap pitcher in such a tasty matchup and the 4.2 implied run total for the Rockies only adds to Quantrill’s value.

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Day

Brad Keller Over 4.5 Strikeouts

With the Tigers ranked bottom-two in runs scored, OPS, OBP, wOBA and xwOBA while sitting 28th in K rate, Keller should reach this prop at relative ease with his recent form.

Julio Teheran.Caleb Smith Over 11.5 Strikeouts Combined

This is self-explanaory after the previous write-ups, as either one of these guys could reach 7-8 Ks on their own.

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5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

8/3 MLB DFS Pitching/Prop Picks

David Jones 5 years ago

written by David Jones

A nice 8/3 MLB DFS slate with only a couple of afternoon games and then a big main schedule. There is a doubleheader in New York between the Red Sox and the Yankees.

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Upper-Tier Arms

Stephen Strasburg, Nationals at Diamondbacks ($11,000 FD, $11,600 DK): We have seen the humidor-influenced impacts of Chase Field all season long (26th in adjusted to normal runs scored, 28th in HRs) and Strasburg is in a great spot to take advantage of this in 8/3 MLB DFS. He is on the best stretch of his career, having won seven consecutive starts. He was simply awesome in July, going 5-0 with a 1.14 ERA with 44 strikeouts and only seven walks. If you can afford bats around him, he is a fine choice as a cash-game pitcher.

Walker Buehler, Padres at Dodgers ($11,400 FD, $10,900 DK): Look for the Dodgers to get back into the “W” column tonight and Buehler to be a big part of that. The Padres are a team you can pick on with righties. They are among the league leaders in strikeouts on the season and are likely to add onto that total tonight. Just like Strasburg, if you can afford him, Buehler is an excellent cash-game choice.

Middle-Tier Arms

Marcus Stroman, Mets at Pirates ($9,000 FD, $9,600 DK): Stroman is making his Mets debut tonight. Don’t let the Pirates getting to Matz last night scare you off of Stroman in 8/3 MLB DFS. The Pirates are still a bad offensive, and overall,baseball team that is completely tanking since the All-Star Break. PNC is a great park to pitch in and the Mets are likely to make it eight wins out of nine games tonight. They are smack dab in the middle of the wild-card hunt and Stroman will likely be a big part of their success or failure getting it. A worthwhile cash-game choice.

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Mike Fiers, Cardinals at Athletics ($$8,200 FD, $8,000 DK): The Cardinals are not very good against righties. The Athletics home park is great for pitchers. This seems like a good 8/3 MLB DFS combination for Fiers tonight. Probably a little risky for cash-games but a fine GPP choice in my book.

Bargain Basement Arms

Let’s go to Coors Field here in 8/3 MLB DFS. Both Madison Bumgarner ($7,500 FD, $7,600 DK) and Jon Gray ($7,200 FD, $7,800 DK) are capable of pitching well at Coors. I know there is the philosophy of never using pitchers at Coors but Gray is proving that wrong this season and Bumgarner has dome that in the past. Certainly only GPP options in my opinion.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick

Both pitchers are likely to perform well (with plenty of strikeouts) at Chavez Ravine.

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

MLB Team Stacks: Winning Edge for August 3

rdbtone@gmail.com 5 years ago

written by rdbtone@gmail.com

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 13-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

MLB Team Stack: Los Angeles Angels

vs. RHP Adam Plutko (CLE): UPDATE

The Angels are in Cleveland tonight facing Adam Plutko. Plutko owns a 4.83 ERA, 6.80 FIP, and 5.35 SIERA. He has a measly 14.5% K rate and struggles with the long ball, allowing 2.50 HR/9 and a 48% fly ball rate. Plutko has struggled against righties, particularly at home. They are slashing to a .371 wOBA, .625 SLG, and .294 OBP. Plutko has shown inconsistency overall so I won’t be afraid to roll out these powerful Angels lefties. The Angels are slashing to a .316 wOBA, .210 ISO, and 100 WRC+ over the last month against right handed pitching.

Preferred Stack: Mike Trout ($4800 FD|$5700 DK), Shohei Ohtani ($3800 FD|$5100 DK), Kole Calhoun ($3300 FD|$4700 DK), and Matthew Thaiss ($2500 FD|$4100 DK).

MLB Team Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Danny Duffy: 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

The Twins were the top stack on the slate as I stated yesterday. They take on an underwhelming Danny Duffy. Duffy owns a 4.42 ERA, 4.73 FIP, and 4.85 SIERA. He hasn’t thrown a lot to lefties, but has struggled in the 24 innings he has. He is allowing them to slash to a .357 wOBA, .457 SLG, and .367 OBP. The Twins are slashing to a .357 wOBA, .223 ISO, and 122 WRC+ over the last month.

Preferred Stack: Nelson Cruz ($4400 FD|$5200 DK), Mitch Garver ($3500 FD|$5500 DK), Miguel Sano ($3800 FD|$4800 DK), and Jonathon Schoop ($2700 FD|$3700 DK).

MLB Team Stack: Philidelphia Phillies

vs. LHP Ross Detwiler (CWS): 6.00

**Low Risk

Ross Detwiler is on the mound tonight for the White Sox. He owns a 6.35 ERA, 6.84 FIP, and 4.39 SIERA over 22 innings pitched. He has a slate low 11.7% K rate and is allowing 2.78 HR/9 innings (inflated stat due to small sample size). Detwiler absolutely gets smashed by right handed batting, allowing them to slash to a .480 wOBA, .726 SLG, and .440 OBP. He has allowed 11 earned runs and six home runs against righties across 15 innings pitched.

Preferred Stack: Rhys Hoskins ($4200 FD|$4600 DK), J.T. Realmuto ($3700 FD|$4500 DK), Jean Segura ($3600 FD|$4300 DK), and Scott Kingery ($3300 FD|$4400 DK).

Honorable Mention

MLB Team Stack: Houston Astros

vs. LHP Marco Gonzales (SEA): 6.30 Runs

**Low Risk

MLB Team Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. RHP Trevor Bauer (CIN): 4.70 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Stack: Freddie Freeman ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Brian McCann ($2400 FD|$3700 DK), Josh Donaldson ($3600 FD|$4400 DK) and Ozzie Albies ($3600 FD|$4200 DK).

Pitching

Matthew Boyd LHP (DET): 4.70 Runs
Walker Buehler RHP (LAD): UPDATE
Kyle Gibson RHP (MIN): 3.60 Runs
Jon Gray RHP (COL): 5.50 Runs

5 years ago 0 comments

MLB

DFS MLB Pitching Picks for 7/16: Fly with Flaherty

Jared Contestabile 5 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

My preferred DFS MLB Pitching selections for Tuesday.

Jack Flaherty vs Pittsburgh Pirates

DraftKings $7,400, FanDuel $7,700

Flaherty has been up and down this season, but he has been really solid at home. With Coors Field in the slate I really want to find a mid-priced guy I love and that’s Flaherty. Against right handed bats he has a .216 BAA and at home he has a 10.10 K/9. I’m never really scared of the Pirates and the Cardinals opening up as a -180 favorite gives me a little better DFS MLB Pitching boost.

Jordan Yamamoto vs San Diego Padres

DraftKings $9,500, FanDuel $8,700

Yamamoto has been dominant to start his career and I don’t see anything changing here. We get a huge park boost to back him up as well in DFS MLB Pitching. At home tYamamoto has a 1.64 ERA and a .139 BAA. The Padres are always a hit or miss team for me and I’m planning on them missing in this one.

Walker Buehler @ Philadelphia Phillies

DraftKings $10,200, FanDuel $10,000

The Phillies have been nothing close to the team that we have expected this season. After a rough April, Walker Buehler has been completely dominant. Other than one rough outing in a Coors, like everyone, he has only had two games under 20 points in his last 10. With a 10.54 K/9 to righties I expect him to slice through this lineup and he is my top DFS MLB Pitching arm on the slate.

Brandon Woodruff vs Atlanta Braves

DraftKings $8,700, FanDuel $9,600

This is my DFS MLB Pitching GPP play of the night. Woodruff has the potential to strike out seven or more and the Braves do strike out a good amount. I know it’s in Miller Park so that’s going to give a big boost to Freddie Freeman as a left handed bat. Woodruff has nine or more strikeouts in a game four times this season and I’m hoping tonight is number five.

5 years ago 0 comments

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