9/21 DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: Manaea is the Man

I’m looking to follow up some great MLB DFS picks from last night with another batch of winning hurlers. It’s a nine-game slate with a couple big names and some fabulous value plays among a pretty large mess of unreliable arms and likely pitch counts. But I know we’re going to find some gems in this edition of 9/21 DFS pitching picks.

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9/21 DFS Pitching Cash Game Plays

SeanManaea, OAK vs. TEX

DK ($9,800) FD($9,200)

Manaea is a huge home favorite (-340), he’s backed by a potent offensewith a high implied total (6.00), and the Rangers offense has been scufflinglately. Over the course of the season, Texas has struck out at a 25.7% rate, whichis third worst among MLB teams. Manaea (2-0, 0.50 ERA in three starts this season) gave up justthree hits and one walk while striking out six through 6.0 scoreless IP againstthis same Rangers team on Sunday – in a much tougher hitting environment inArlington. I feel comfortable going right back to the well in cash games andGPPs, as the 27-year-old hurler had 11 swinging strikes and 19 called strikesin that last outing.

Jose Berrios, MIN vs. KC

DK ($10,900) FD ($9,400)

The Twins are large favorites against the Royals and while I don’t like Berrios for a monster K game here in 9/21 DFS, he’s still a viable cash game play with the Kansas City implied run total languishing at just 3.39. Keep an eye on the weather before this one locks, because we could see a late start – but deploy him with confidence in a slate lacking in elite pitching options. The Twins offense should get him a win, and on FanDuel he could easily notch a quality start bonus – as he’s gone at least 6 IP and has given up less than 3 ER in three of his last four starts.

9/21 DFS Pitching GPP Plays

WalkerBuehler, LAD vs. COL

DK ($12,300) FD($11,100)

Buehler willlikely be on a pitch count, so he’s way too expensive for cash gamesconsidering he’s likely looking at around 5-6 IP. Still, his low WHIP (1.01) andelite strikeout rate (29.4%) mean he very well could fan 10 hitters even onsuch a short leash. The Rockies may have gotten a few licks on Clayton Kershawlast night, but they have a team K rate of 23.7% and shouldn’t have muchsuccess against this dominant young arm.

MaxFried, ATL vs. SF

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,600)

Fried (16-6, 4.25 ERA) allowed five runs on six hits while striking out just two hitters (and walking three Nationals) in just 2.1 innings in Washington during his last outing, but he’s a much better pitcher at home this season and he draws a great matchup against the Giants. Fried has been battered a bit in two consecutive starts and has given up at least three earned runs in five of his last six starts, but that should help keep some of the ownership off him here in a start where he looks like he could get a little chalky for the DFS Pros. There’s plenty to like once you check out the home/away splits in a little more detail and take into account the sometimes punchless Giants offense.

9/21 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

JohnnyCueto, SF at ATL

DK ($9,600) FD($7,800)

I’m a lot more interested in Cueto as a GPP play on FD, where he’s essentially a punt at 7,800 and doesn’t have to keep guys off base. The veteran should have a much easier path to making value by striking out a handful of Braves, even if he gets knocked out after 4 innings. There’s plenty of risk here because Cueto only has 6 Ks in his last 10 IP, but the price is right for FD GPPs and I’m looking for some contrarian angles in the mid-tier since Fried might be a little more chalky. Grabbing the other side of that chalk could pay off.

Justus Sheffield, SEA at BAL

DK ($7,900) FD ($7,300)

Once again, it’s a huge risk playing Sheffield in a hitter’s park like Camden Yards, but few pitchers on this slate have better strikeout potential against a weak opponent like the Orioles, and there’s an outside chance his team gets him a lead and a possible win. Forget the fact that he hasn’t notched a win in 2019 yet and focus on the metrics: He’s carrying a 10.13 K/9, 4.22 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA through his appearances despite an admittedly bad ERA, but his 12.4 SwStr% is promising.

You have to take some chances to win GPPs and I’ll have my fair share of Sheffield lineups on FD, though he’s a much riskier play on DK with such a high walk rate (4.91 BB/9 in his career).

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Jose Berrios Under 6.5 Strikeouts

Berrios is a solid pitcher, but he hasn’t been dominant in too many games back-to-back this season. These Royals will be focused on putting the ball in play after chalking up 11 team Ks in 33 ABs last night, and they only had 3 total Ks against Berrios in a June meeting.

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Zach Davies Under 3.5 Strikeouts

Davies doesn’t miss bats and could have an early night against a Pirates lineup sporting a 19.5 team K% — and has whiffed just 13 times in their last 23.1 IP against him. I fully expect the Pirates to have more success against Brewers pitching in this one, and knock Davis out of there before he gets to 4 Ks.