Tag:

Trevor Bauer

DFS Winners and Losers: Bauer, Gurriel Jr. and More

Emely Sharman 5 years ago

written by Emely Sharman

Our DFS slate had a full 15 games once again on Wednesday, June 26th. It was a good day for most of the high priced pitchers and some other batters put up big games as well. Points and salaries are based on DraftKings.

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DFS Winners

Trevor Bauer ($10,600)

Trevor Bauer and the Indians beat the Kansas City Royals at home Wednesday 5-3. Bauer pitched 6.2 innings and gave up one earned run on only three hits and one walk. He racked up 12 strikeouts while throwing 127 pitches. Bauer scored 37.4 DFS points. This was a good bounce-back performance as Bauer gave up five earned runs on 10 hits over four innings in his last start. Bauer’s ERA is now at 3.55 and his WHIP is at 1.14. This is now three out of his four starts that have been stellar.

Bauer’s Outlook

Bauer’s next projected start will come against the same Kansas City Royals, this time on the road on July 3rd. Bauer dismantled the Royals offense Wednesday and he should have similar DFS success in this start. The Royals offense has been bad this year and has not been any better lately. In June, the Royals rank 25th in runs scored and average 3.91 runs per game. They are also tied for 10th in strikeouts. He should be counted on again vs. the Royals in DFS.

Mike Minor ($11,000)

Mike Minor of the Texas Rangers threw a complete game gem on Wednesday. He pitched all nine innings while giving up only one earned run on five hits and two walks. Minor struck out seven and gave up one home run. He scored 34.55 fantasy points in DraftKings DFS. Minor’s ERA is now at a sparkling 2.40 and his WHIP is at 1.12. His K/9 sits at a pretty good 8.79.

Minor’s Outlook

Minor’s next projected start will come on Monday, July 1st at home against the Angels. The Angels have avoided the strikeout all year and this trend has not changed lately. In June, the Angels rank 26th in strikeouts and have struck out only 7.26 times per game. They have also scored well this month and average 5.43 runs per game, ranking in the Top 10. Minor has been good lately but this doesn’t look like a high upside matchup. At Minor’s price, I will be looking elsewhere for more DFS value.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($4,500)

Gurriel Jr. and the Blue Jays visited the Yankees and lost in a close game 8-7. Gurriel Jr. did all he could to get them the win, going 3-for-5 while hitting two home runs and a double. He finished with two runs scored and four RBI for 37 fantasy points. Gurriel Jr.’s batting average is now at .304 and his OPS is at .965. He has hit 12 home runs and has 30 RBI. He has been on a DFS tear his last few games and has 12 hits over his last five games.

Gurriel Jr.’s Outlook

The Blue Jays now head back home for a four game series against the Kansas City Royals. Kansas City’s pitching has been pretty good lately and ranks 12th in team ERA in the month of June. They have allowed an opposing batting average .258 in June, ranking at 16th in the league. Gurriel Jr. has been one of the hotter hitters in baseball the last week and there isn’t a pitcher in the Royal’s rotation that should scare anyone too much. Fire him up in this series as an affordable DFS player.

DFS Losers

James Paxton ($9,000)

Paxton and the Yankees beat the before mentioned Blue Jays 8-7 but it was not because of Paxton’s pitching performance. Paxton was only able to pitch 4.1 innings and gave up six earned runs on eight hits. He also walked four and gave up three home runs. He earned three strikeouts over his 91 pitches. Paxton’s ERA is now at 4.34 and his WHIP is at at 1.43. Paxton has 81 strikeouts over 64.1 innings which puts his K/9 at 11.34.

Paxton’s Outlook

Paxton’s next projected start will come on Tuesday, July 2nd on the road agaisnt the New York Mets. The Mets offense has been pretty good lately and averages 5.17 runs per game in June. They have done well at putting balls in play and strike out only 7.87 times per game. Paxton has not gotten through more than six innings since mid April and I don’t see that changing here. He does have decent strikeout upside for DFS but if he can’t work deep into games, it is limited.

Nolan Arenado ($4,900)

Arenado and the Rockies visited the San Francisco Giants Wednesday and got the win 6-3. Arenado wasn’t any help offensively in this one as he went 0-for-4 and struck out once. He has played really well this year and has even played good away from Coors Field. Arendao has a home/away batting average split of .370/.280. He has actually hit more home runs on the road as 11 of his 19 have come away from home. His overall numbers are great and his batting average is at .321 and his OPS is at .964.

Arenado’s Outlook

The Colorado Rockies head back home for a four game series against the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Dodgers pitching staff has been really good in June and leads the majors in team ERA at 2.27. This should keep Arenado a little less owned than normal, when he plays at Coors Field. He will always be a top DFS third baseman when he plays at home and I do not think that changes in this tougher matchup.

Injury Report

Eddie Rosario sprained his ankle Wednesday and is considered day-to-day.

Giancarlo Stanton has been placed on the 10-day IL with a PCL sprain.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The King’s DFS Pitching/Prop Plays: Follow Me To Framber

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

On the early slate, Chris Sale is certainly worth the $11,600 on DraftKings, and he could get his first home win this season against his former team. Sale did have a bumpy start his last time out, but he should rebound today. But you can save $1000 by going with Trevor Bauer at home against the Royals. Some DFS players may be skeptical a bit after he was hit hard by the Tigers his last time out. Bauer is definitely better on the road, but you have to like the opponent here. Bauer also pitches better in day games (1.82 ERA). Kansas City is 25th in team batting this month and on the road overall.

If you choose to play on the all day DFS slate, our CEO and DFS Pro Jason Mezrahi likes German Marquez at San Francisco for 10,000 on DK. Marquez is coming off a very strong outing against the Dodgers and he registered his first career shutout at Oracle Park earlier this season. He should also get quality run support from the Colorado lineup against Jeff Samardzija.

In one of the best matchups of the night, Mike Minor (11,000)opposes Matt Boyd (10,000). Both pitchers are worth strong DFS GPP consideration,but only one can win here and it could be a low-scoring duel that eliminatesboth as cash game plays. Boyd, however, is coming off two bumpy starts, so youcan lean to Minor here in tournaments, especially since he faces the weakerlineup.

Patrick Corbin is a top play at 10,600 at Miami in a pitcher’spark against one the most vulnerable lineups in MLB. He is the preferred DFScash game play on the night slate. Last time Corbin faced Miami in May, hedelivered a complete game shutout. Miami hitters who have faced him previouslyhave a composite .195 batting average against Corbin.

I have a strong gut feeling about Framber Valdez at a DFSprice of just 6900 at home against Pittsburgh. My gut is quite prominent, so Imay want to listen to it. I look like a lowercase letter b from the side view. Valdezhad two solid outings as a starter before getting hit hard at Yankee Stadiumlast week. He had 15 strikeouts and three earned runs in two previous startsagainst Toronto and Baltimore. I am going to use him as my second DK pitcher inDFS GPP play.

In the featured pitching matchup of the night, CharlieMorton (10,200) opposes Jake Odorizzi (9,500). I am not spending up for Morton againstthat Minnesota lineup. Odorizzi’s price is down after a pair of four-runoutings against Kansas City. That makes him a GPP DFS Play against Tampa Bay,21^st in team batting in June and is fifth in Ks this month. On thenight slate I would go with Odorizzi or Minor as my DFS GPP play along with Valdezas my SP2.

Monkey Knife Fight Play of the Night

I am going big on the Pittsburgh-Houston Over/Under tonight for 19x my buy-in. Framber Valdez will easily go over 4.5 Ks. Josh Bell is hitting .176 over the last week and is better vs. RHPs, so I will take the under on 1.5 Runs plus RBI. Starling Marte is hitting .167 over the past week and .238 vs. lefties, so I will take the under on 1.5 total bases. Dario Agrazi, who is making his second start after posting a 3,87 ERA in the minors, should be a good target for the Houston hitters. The Pittsburgh bullpen is also ranked 27^th. So over for me on 1.5 Hits plus Walks on Jose Altuve and 1.5 Total Bases for Alex Bregman, who starts to get back on track tonight. Our Joel Bartilotta has more on Bregman here. Follow my gut with Valdez here tonight and get 100 percent bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

6/26 MLB DFS Podcast With The King and Our CEO And DFS Pro

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

Scott Engel and Jason Mezrahi are featured in the 6/26 MLB DFS Podcast. Listen to get caught up on who they are planning to play this afternoon and tonight. They break down all the slates and they debate on whether Yu Darvish can survive a matchup with the Braves lineup.

Should You Stack Against Vargas?

Today’s DFS Podcast is full of spirited back and forth discussions. Jason goes right in for a Phillies stack against Jason Vargas, but Scott cautions that the Mets pitcher has been performing well overall recently. On the full slate, Jason is leaning heavily towards using German Marquez. The featured matchup of the night has Charlie Morton opposing Jake Odorizzi. Do you dare use Morton against the Minnesota lineup? Is the Twins starter beginning to fade and cannot be trusted?

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Click play below to listen to the 6/26 MLB DFS Podcast.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 6/21

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

While there aren’t a whole lot of pitchers I like on this slate, there are some guys I absolutely love. That’s why I’ve only provided six selections here, as any one of these guys could be a great pick for your lineup. I’ve also included two Monkey Knife Fight Picks and I’ve actually hit on 10 of my last 15 recommendations!

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Cash Game Pitcher of the Day

Chris Sale, BOS vs. TOR

DK ($12,000) FD ($11,900)

This one really doesn’t take much explanation, as Sale is arguably the best pitcher in the league right now. After getting off to a slow start, Sale has pitched to a 2.24 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over his last 11 starts. What’s more impressive is the fact that he has 116 Ks across 72.1 innings in that span, which is simply the best K rate around. That rate, paired with this matchup makes Sale an easy choice as our cash game pitcher of the day, with the Blue Jays ranking 21st in K rate, 26th in runs scored and 27th in wOBA. That’s why the southpaw enters this matchup as a –360 favorite.

Top-Tier Pitchers

Trevor Bauer, CLE vs. DET

DK ($11,100) FD ($11,500)

Bauer’s inconsistency can drive fantasy owners mad but it’s hard to overlook the strikeout upside in a matchup like this. Dating back to 2017, Bauer is one of the league leaders with a 28 percent K rate. He also has a 2.67 ERA and 1.10 WHIP dating back to last year and this dude is simply one of the most talented pitchers around. What makes him particularly intriguing here is this matchup though, is Bauer pitched a complete game shutout in his last start against these Tigers on June 16. That’s really no surprise when you consider the fact that the Motor City Kitties rank 29^th in runs scored, 28^th in wOBA and last in K rate. Vegas agrees with this assessment, making Bauer a –200 favorite in this fixture.

Matt Boyd, DET at CLE

DK ($9,700) FD ($10,000)

It’s strange to recommend pitchers from the same game but we should be looking at a lot of whiffs in Cleveland on Friday night. Boyd is actually one of the league leaders with a 112:17 K: BB rate and that number pairs majestically with a 3.35 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. That stat line obviously puts Boyd in play against anyone, but especially an offense like the Indians. Cleveland currently ranks 22^nd in runs scored, 23^rd in OPS and 21^st in wOBA. If you’re a betting man, don’t be afraid to bet the under in this game too, as this eight-run total is too high with these two studs toeing the rubber.

Middle-Tier Pitchers

Aaron Nola, PHI vs. MIA

DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)

Nola has taken a major step back from his 2018 breakout campaign but a start against the Marlins could be just what the doctor ordered. A 4.81 ERA and 1.51 WHIP will scare off most DFS owners but we’re talking about a guy who has a 3.37 career xFIP and 26 percent K rate. That means he definitely has some positive regression headed his way and a matchup with Miami is a good way to tip the scale back in his favor. In fact, the Marlins currently sit last in runs scored, wOBA and OPS. That’s why Nola enters this matchup as a –230 favorite with Miami projected for only 3.5 runs. Those sorts of projections are unheard-of from a player below $9,000 on both sites.

Yu Darvish, CHC vs. NYM

DK ($7,200) FD ($6,900)

This play is only available if you’re playing the day slate but I had to get my boy Darvish in here. The talented righty has had trouble with his control all season long but recent results are extremely encouraging. Over his last eight starts, Darvish is pitching to a 3.86 ERA and 1.18 WHIP while posting a 10.8 K/9 rate. More importantly, he’s walked three guys or fewer in seven straight starts and that’s what we’re really looking for from a guy with such nasty stuff. A 10-K gem against the Dodgers in his most recent start was the outing that made me realize that Darvish has really turned the corner and I truly believe Yu will be above $8,000 this time next month. We also anticipate Darvish entering this matchup as a –200 favorite, facing a Mets team that ranks 22^nd in K rate is and 23^rd in xBA.

Cheap Pitcher of the Day

Joe Musgrove, PIT vs. SD

DK ($5,500) FD ($7,500)

Recent results will make you run for the hills when using Musgrove but I’m sensing a major bounce-back here. Okay, you can’t possibly use Musgrove on FanDuel at $7.500 but he’s tough to overlook on DK at $5,500. While he’s had some massive struggles recently, Musgrove has shown signs of brilliance throughout his career. His start to this season was especially impressive, pitching to a 1.54 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over his first six starts. The last nine starts have obviously been frustrating but a lot of that can be chalked up to tough matchups. Facing San Diego is just the way to get him back on track, with the Padres ranking 27^th in K rate, 24^th in OBP and 26^th in xwOBA. The only scary bats on the Padres are Manny Machado, Franmil Reyes and Hunter Renfroe, and they all happen to be righties. That just adds to Musgrove’s intrigue with the platoon advantage in his favor, especially in a pitcher’s park like PNC.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Trevor Bauer/Matt Boyd Over 14.5 Strikeouts

After my previous write-ups, this play really doesn’t take much explanation. I think both of these guys are in play for double-digit strikeouts against weak offenses and it really wouldn’t surprise me if they combine for 20 Ks. Even if one of these guys struggles, there’s enough K-upside here to pass this prop with at least one of these pitchers going off.

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Joe Musgrove Over 4.5 Strikeouts

Musgrove has been terrible recently but he’s shown flashes of brilliance. All we need is a little spark of promise to clear this prop, as two or three elite innings could cash this. We’re talking about a guy with a 20.4 percent career K rate facing a club that is sitting 27th in K rate while throwing out a ton of swing-happy righties. That’s a recipe for a lot of strikeouts and five is not asking for much.

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Podcast for 6/21 MLB DFS with Jason Mezrahi & DFS Expert Matt Striker

Jason Mezrahi 5 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Jason and Matt get into the 14-game main slate for 6/21. They tell you about the three pitchers they are looking to target. With no clear cut stacking options and a lot of good pitchers this looks like a sneaky slate to break down, but Jason and Matt have you covered. They explain why this is a night to either pay up for Chris Sale and Trevor Bauer or grab the blatant value and go with Aaron Nola. Looks like there could be some potential fireworks in the White Sox vs. Rangers matchup and the same goes for the Reds vs Brewers game. Take a listen and get a game-by-game MLB DFS breakdown of the entire slate for Friday 6/21.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 6/16

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

Several weather trouble spots that we need to pay attention to today. CIN, BAL and NYM are the games that look to be a delay threat and while a PPD is not impossible, it is doubtful.

Upper-Tier Arms

Trevor Bauer, Indians at Tigers ($11,300 FD, $11,200 DK): Bauer gets the dream matchup of the Tigers, a team with a .150 OPS that is 28th in the league and strikes out 26.1% of the time, second most in the league. Bauer seemed to put some struggles behind him in his last start after posting a 5.50 ERA over six May starts. Against the Reds, he allowed one run through 7 2/3 innings with five walks and six strikeouts on 118 pitches. This seems like a steep price for cash games so Bauer will be GPP only for me today.

Hyun-Jin Ryu, Cubs at Dodgers ($10,600 FD, $11,200 DK): You will have to play the all day FD slate or the one game showdown on DK to use the best pitcher in the N.L. this year in Ryu. He would have been the first MLB pitcher to 10 wins if the bullpen hadn’t gave up a lead in Anaheim Monday night. Ryu did not have a good change-up that night and allowed a homer to Kole Calhoun, but he still isn’t walking anybody. With the Cubs walking the third most 10.4% of the time against lefties, his pinpoint control could be huge. On the FD all day slate, he could be my cash game choice.

Middle-Term Arms

Brad Peacock, Blue Jays at Astros ($8,500 FD, $8,800 DK): Even though Minute Maid is generally known as a hitter’s park, this year it is middle of the pack when it comes to both HRs and runs. Peacock has taken full advantage, going 3-1 with a 2.90 ERA at home. Peacock is pitching well recently, going 4-1 with a 2.01 ERA in his last seven starts, striking out 45 batters in 40 1/3 innings. The Astros are 6-1 in the seven games Peacock has started at home.

Martin Perez, Royals at Twins ($8,000 FD, $$7,300 DK): Wow, look at that price on DK! He has to be in consideration for your cash game pitcher on that site and he is also friendly on FD. Pérez allowed four runs on Tuesday against the Mariners, with the newest Yankee Edwin Encarnación responsible for three of them with one swing of the bat. He has struck out seven or more hitters in five of his last eight starts, and has allowed more than three earned runs in only two of them.

Bargain Basement Arm

Ariel Jurado, Rangers at Reds ($6,700 FD, $7,500 DK): More of a FD play than DK because of the price, this is even a GPP only play due to the Great American Ballpark being an extreme hitter’s park. Jurado is 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in his last four starts, all of which have lasted at least six innings. He is 2-2 with a 5.14 ERA in six career interleague appearances (two starts).The Reds strike out the eighth most often against righties at 24.5%.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick

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Marin Perez, Over 5.5 Strikeouts: seven, seven, seven, nine, seven are the number of strikeouts in a few games that Perez has recorded over his last 10 starts or so. The Royals strike out at a 25.5% clip, 10th most frequently in the league.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 6/16

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

Several weather trouble spots that we need to pay attention to today. CIN, BAL and NYM are the games that look to be a delay threat and while a PPD is not impossible, it is doubtful.

Upper-Tier Arms

Middle-Term Arms

Bargain Basement Arm

Monkey Knife Fight Pick

Head over to Monkey Knife Fight to join our winning team! Check out how we have been doing here!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching and Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 5/31

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

Picking the right pitchers on this slate is going to be extremely critical because you’re going to need to match them with the right Rockies. Colorado is currently projected for more than seven runs against Edwin Jackson and that happens to be the highest projected total of the season. It actually doubles many of the other team totals on this slate and that will make them one of the chalkiest teams all season long.

Cash-Game Pitcher of the Day

Patrick Corbin, WSH at CIN

DK ($11,200) FD ($11,400)

Corbin is the highest-priced pitcher on the slate and it’s easy to understand why. Not only is he easily the most reliable pitcher on this board, he probably has one of the best matchups, too. Dating back to last season, Corbin is posting a 3.07 ERA and 1,05 WHIP while providing a 30 percent K rate. That’s obviously some of the best numbers in the league and he should have no problem cruising through this lineup. So far this season, the Reds rank 21^st in runs scored, 24^th in OPS and 26^th in xwOBA. It’s hard to argue with Corbin’s recent form too, posting a 1.55 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over his last four starts while striking out 31 batters across 29 innings.

Top-Tier Pitchers

Trevor Bauer, CLE at CWS

DK ($9,200) FD ($10.500)

This play comes with a ton of risk because of Bauer’s recent struggles, but there’s also a chance that he’ll be the highest-scoring pitcher on the board. That’s what really makes him enticing here, with Bauer accruing 88 Ks across 76.1 innings so far this season. His early-season form shows the sort of dominance he possesses, with Bauer pitching to a 1.99 ERA and 1.03 WHIP over his first six starts. We expect to see that Bauer here against the White Sox, with Chicago sitting 22^nd in OBP, xwOBA and runs scored while ranking 26^th in K rate. The White Sox actually have the worst K rate in the Majors dating back to last season and that spells disaster against a guy who has a 30 percent K rate in that same span.

Caleb Smith, MIA at SD

DK ($9,700) FD ($9,800)

Smith is not really getting the recognition he deserves, as he’s truly developed into one of the best southpaws in the game. Over his first 10 starts, Smith is pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 0.96 WHIP while striking out 72 batters across 56 innings. Those strikeout numbers are downright absurd and he actually has at least six Ks in all but one start this season. He becomes very intriguing against an offense like this, with the Padres ranked 27^th in K rate, 28^th in xwOBA and 25^th in runs scored.

Mid-Tier Options

Brad Peacock, HOU at OAK

DK ($9,900) FD ($8.600)

This price is almost getting too high, but we have to consider him with his recent form. Over his last four starts, Peacock is pitching to a 0.39 ERA and 0.78 WHIP while striking out 32 batters across 23 innings of action. Those numbers are simply hard to believe and it really makes him difficult to avoid in a pitcher’s park like Oakland Coliseum. Oakland’s very good offense only ranks 22^nd in runs scored and slugging percentage at home.

Joey Lucchesi, SD vs. MIA

DK ($8,800) FD ($7,600)

Lucchesi recent results would indicate that we’ve been making the correct recommendation on him as he has been included here in his past three starts. In fact, Lucchesi is providing a 2.68 ERA and 0.68 WHIP while striking out 21 batters across 19 innings over his last three starts. That absurd WHIP and high K rate would indicate that his ERA should be even lower, as his 3.48 FIP shows that he has some positive regression from his 4.25 ERA. That form would make him worth considering against anyone, but facing the Marlins is simply the best matchup in baseball. Miami currently ranks last in runs scored, OPS, xSLG, wOBA and xSLG. That says a lot about this horrific lineup and it’s really no surprise that Lucchesi is a –160 favorite with a minuscule total of 7. Don’t be afraid to bet this under and use both of these pitchers.

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL vs. DET

DK ($8,500) FD ($7,300)

Folty’s early-season struggles have kept his price at an affordable number and we really love him on FanDuel at $7,300. The last few starts are what we really like, with Foltynewicz posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.67 WHIP over his last two starts. A two-start sample size is small, but the fact that it came against elite offenses like the Brewers and Cardinals is a fantastic sign. We’re talking about a guy who provided a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP last season and it’s clear that he’s starting to recapture that form. Facing Detroit is a good way to keep rolling, with the Tigers ranked 25^th in wOBA, 28^th in xwOBA, 27^th in runs scored and last in K rate. They’ll also be without a DH, which will only make their lackluster lineup even worse.

Value Play of the Day

Mike Fiers, OAK vs. HOU

DK ($7,700) FD ($6,700)

Did Joel escape from the looney bin, recommending Fiers against the Astros? It’s very possible but let me loosen up my strait jacket to explain why I like Fiers. The first reason is because he’s facing Houston (WHAT?). While the Astros rank at the top in nearly every offensive category in the league, this simply isn’t the same team recently. Houston will be missing Carlos Correa, George Springer and Jose Altuve and that’s a ton of production to make up. That’s three MVP candidates out of the lineup and they’re going to be replaced by guys like Derek Fisher, Tony Kemp and Jake Marisnick. No, that’s not the 2004 Los Angeles Lakers. Their situation puts any pitcher in play against them for the next few weeks and recent results make me believe that Fiers has found something. In fact, Fiers is generating a 2.53 ERA and 0.75 WHIP over his last five starts. Pitching in Oakland Coliseum is huge too, as we’re looking at a total of 8 in one of the best pitcher’s parks in baseball.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day

Caleb Smith over 5.5 strikeouts

Smith has at least six strikeouts in all but one start this season and has a spectacular matchup. Not only does he face a Padres team that ranks 27^th in K rate in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the Majors, Smith is also one of the league leaders with a 33.2 percent K rate.

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Caleb Smith and Joey Lucchesi over 12.5 strikeouts

We’re going to hedge our previous pick with this one, as I expect a low-scoring pitcher’s duel in this matchup. Smith’s strikeout potential was explained in the previous write-up but Luchessi’s 26 percent K rate is no joke either. Facing the Marlins is huge too, with Miami ranking at the bottom in nearly every offensive statistic. I honestly believe that these two will pass the 14.5-K threshold for 2X-value but we’re going to keep it safe with the over 12.5 at 1.5X-value.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 5/26: Back on Bauer

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

Sundays are my favorite slates of the week. It’s a huge, generally 14 game main slate with plenty of options. And today is no different! We do have plenty of weather issues, with the three California games (OAK, SF, LAA) and PIT as the four main trouble spots.

Top-Tier Arms

Justin Verlander, Red Sox at Astros ($11,700 FD, $11,200 DK): Verlander is currently the best overall pitcher in MLB. I will only recommend using him in GPPs today for a few reasons: a) his price b) his opponent (more about that to follow) and c) the park he is pitching in. Verlander is riding an incredible hot streak, with a 3-0 record over his last three starts, a combined 22 innings pitched, four hits given up, two earned runs (both on solo homers), 29 strikeouts and five walks. Those three starts were against Detroit, Chicago and Texas, with the game against Detroit being the only road start. The Red Sox have a deep and powerful lineup, but they do not seem to have the same magic nor do they strike fear into opposing pitchers like they did last season on their way to the World Series championship. Mookie Betts seems to be having a one season MVP/HOF caliber, the next above average MLB player pattern (with this being the latter obviously) and J.D. Martinez is not putting up the stats like he did last season. Using Verlander will make lineup construction challenging, especially with Coors on the slate.

Chris Paddack, Padres at Blue Jays ($10,600 FD, $10,400 DK): Another GPP-only option for me, as he has flashed his incredible upside several times this season, including in his last start against Arizona at home: six innings pitched, five hits allowed, one earned run, zero walks and seven strikeouts. The main reason I like him here is that the Blue Jays continue to stink offensively. Fans of the team North of the Border were hoping that Vlad Jr. would awaken them from their offensive funk but that has not happened. The roof continues to be closed at the Rogers Centre due to some minor structural repairs taking place so that helps the arms a bit.

Trevor Bauer, Rays at Indians ($10,100 FD, $9,800 DK): Trying to tempt me with these prices huh FD and DK? Because of his recent struggles, Bauer’s price has dropped on both sites. But we do not have to go back too far to see the upside he has, seven innings pitched: 10 strikeouts and only two hits allowed against Oakland three starts ago on May the 11th, another seven inning gem with another 10 strikeouts against the Marlins on April 30th. According to mlb.com, Bauer has been “putting in time over his past few off days searching for the answer to his recent command troubles, especially for his cutter and slider that have caused him issues over his past few starts.”

The Associated Press quoted Bauer as saying, “If you take the second inning out of it (his last start against Oakland), I think things were OK. The command of my fastball and curve ball were pretty good. My slider and cutter are really letting me down right now. Those are two pitches I rely on heavily. It’s hard when you can’t throw half of your arsenal anywhere close to the spot you’re trying to throw it to. Overall, I thought my stuff was really good tonight. I gave up four hits. A curve ball on the black (Matt Olson in the third inning) goes for a bloop single, and five pitches later a fastball at the letters (Mark Canha) goes for a homer. That’s just kind of the way things are going for me right now.” So, do we believe he has command back and he is THIS (fingers spread just a bit apart) close to being dominant yet again? This screams GPP-only but one that has a ton of potential.

Middle-Tier Arms

Zack Wheeler, Tigers at Mets ($9,500 FD, $8,600 DK): That DK price is appealing! It’s probably too much for me on FD, so lets say cash worthy on DK, GPP-only FD. This is his first career start against the Tigers, so maybe that gives him a bit of an advantage? Overall, he has been good this season, especially if you take his first two starts of the year away when he was dealing with command issues. This is more about picking on the Tigers. The Detroit baseball team lacks pop, they find themselves in one of the worst parks for hitting the longball in all of MLB this afternoon and they rank in the bottom 10 in OPS in the league as well. Wheeler, as they say in the industry, is in a smash spot.

Caleb Smith, Marlins at Nationals ($9,900 FD, $9,700 DK): Maybe he is a bit too expensive to be considered middle-tier, maybe he isn’t. That is for me to decide, ha. Anyway, maybe Smith won’t be used as much across the industry as he has been recently. He is coming off his worst start of 2019…..and by worst that means striking out seven batters over five innings while allowing two runs and three hits against Detroit. If that is his worst start, sign me up for a time when he is really good! He is a GPP-only mainly because of his price.

Jake Odorizzi, White Sox at Twins ($8,700 FD, $8,200 DK): Here is my likely cash game pitcher on both sites. Don’t expect a stinker from him today! (Did you get that pun?) Anyways, Odorizzi is very good at home and against righties. His splits show he is 4-0 with a 1.45 ERA at home and against righties he is allowing a batting average against of only .144 with a .221 slugging percentage and a OPS of .460. He has Ks on 24 of the 104 official righty at bats against. Though the White Sox could have up to five left-handed bats in their lineup, most of the good ones are righties (Jimenez, Abreu, Anderson) while their lefties aren’t that good. The one bat that could hurt him is Yoan Moncada, who hits for more power and average against righties. As long as he limits the damage in front of Moncada (Garcia batting leadoff is nothing to be scared of if that is the case) Jake the Snake should be in for a slithering good day.

Bargain Basement Arms

Brandon Woodruff, Phillies at Brewers ($9,000 FD, $6,600 DK) and Spencer Turnbull, Tigers at Mets ($7,700 FD, $6,900 DK): I will combine these two since I am not going to touch Woodruff’s $9,000 on FD so I wanted to give you a FD option too. Woodruff I really like as a pitcher but….it is warm in Milwaukee, the roof and the sides will likely be open and the ball flies out of there. I believe four or five homers were hit there with the roof open yesterday and the Phillies are a good hitting team. Woodruff, however, has the stuff and makeup to keep them down. He has been really good over his last five appearances, not giving up more than two runs in any of them and striking out at least six batters each time out. A GPP option for me on DK. Turnbull has come back down to earth a bit his last few starts but he flashed his potential a few times this year: seven innings with seven strikeouts against K.C. on the 5th of May, 10 strikeouts against K.C. on the 4th of April, six innings with five strikeouts on April 17th against the Pirates. A quality start is possible and he will most likely not be blown up against the Mets.

Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day: Trevor Bauer over 6.5 Strikeouts

Even though Bauer has been off a bit this season, I like the narratives going for him today as mentioned above. He has struck out at least seven batters in eight of his 11 starts this season. The Rays have struck out 22.6% of the time against righties. Play MLB Prop Games now and get 100 percent Bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

DFS Pitching/Monkey Knife Fight Picks for 5/26: Back on Bauer

Mark Paquette 5 years ago

written by Mark Paquette

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Monkey Knife Fight Pick of the Day: Trevor Bauer over 6.5 Strikeouts

5 years ago 0 comment

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