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Welcome to the inaugural edition of PrizePicks Picks and Props. In this article, we’ll be highlighting some of my favorite props that PrizePicks is giving us.
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Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money.
Joe Burrow – 282.5 Passing Yards
One of the first things I look at when trying to find targetable props on PrizePicks is to see what some of the SportsBooks have these players at. FanDuel currently has a line of 291.5 passing yards for Burrow. We are essentially getting Burrow at a 9 yard discount on PrizePicks today. This 282.5 yard prop is one that Burrow should have no trouble hitting today.
He’s crushed this number 3 out of his last 4 games. Last week vs. Tennessee he went for close to 350 yards. We also saw Josh Allen shred this defense in the fourth quarter. While the addition of Tyrann Mathieu should help Chiefs secondary today, I’m still going to go with the Over on this one as I think this game turns into a shootout similar to last week.
Patrick Mahomes – 283.5 Passing Yards
What can’t Mahomes do at this point? While Mahomes is a special quarterback during the regular season, what he does in the playoffs is on a whole different level. So far in the 2022 playoffs Mahomes has thrown for 404 and 378 passing yards. He’s on a mission and I just don’t see the Bengals secondary being able to slow him down.
Although the Bengals were able to hold Tannehill to just 220 passing yards last weekend, they did give up over 300 yards to Derek Carr the weekend before in the Wild Card game. If Carr can do it, I see no scenario where Mahomes doesn’t. Look for Mahomes to crush his 283.5-yard prop.
Joe Mixon – 51.5 Rushing Yards
This is the one I’m least confident of if we’re being honest. I’m going to side with the over, but I can definitely see a case where he is under this prop. If the Bengals have any hope of winning today they’ll need to own the ground game and use up as much of the clock as possible. This would lead to Mixon having a solid game on the ground.
Mixon has hit this number 3 out of the last 5 weeks. Last week he rushed for 54 yards. In the 2 weeks he didn’t hit the number, he was still within a handful of yards of hitting. I like the Over on this one but wouldn’t blame you for going Under.
Ja’Marr Chase – 84.5 Receiving Yards
Chase continues to just dominate teams. Will he be this week’s Gabriel Davis and shred the Chiefs secondary? There’s a good chance of it. If we look at what Chase has done over the last 5 weeks, it’s pretty incredible. We can throw out the meaningless game against the Browns. I
n the other 4 games he’s broken 200 yards once and 100 yards in the other 3 teams. I love Burrow’s Over number today and a big part of it will due to the play of Chase. PrizePicks is giving us an 84.5-yard prop today. I’m confident in saying that Chase blows this away today.
Travis Kelce – 70.5 Yards
While Tyreek Hill has the breakaway speed and big-play mantra, it’s Kelce who is the steady Eddie of the 2. Kelce was targeted 9 times last week and caught 8 of them for 96 yards. Where Kelce goes, Mahomes goes. With Mahomes expected to have another monster playoff performance today, expect Kelce to be a big part of it. Kelce has hit this number 3 of the last 5 weeks. Look for him to make it 4 of 6 today. I’m siding with the Over on this one too.
Make sure to read all of our other NFL articles here.
Good luck and hope to see some green screens today!
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Today I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays
Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money!
Dak Prescott – 279.5 Passing Yards – More
The 49ers were one of the top teams in the NFL this season against the run. Because of that, I expect the Cowboys to take the air more often than not today. If the Cowboys hope to win today, they’re going to need Dak Prescott to continue with the momentum he had to close out the year. He finished the season with 12 TD passes in his final 3 games.
The target that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us today is a number that Prescott has reached 2 out of the last 3 weeks and 7 times total this season. I’m projecting Prescott at around 290 yards passing today as he has the majority of his arsenal of receivers healthy. More side for me on this prop.
Patrick Mahomes – 278.5 Passing Yards – Less
While I do think the Chiefs pull out the victory in this one, I don’t think that Mahomes gets to his Monkey Knife Fight target of 279 passing yards today. As Adam noted in his Game by Game breakdown, Mahomes does not do as well when pressured. The Steelers have this guy named T.J. Watt that likes to put a ton of pressure on quarterbacks.
If we look at what this Steelers defense has done in recent weeks, it’s pretty impressive. They have held quarterbacks under 200 yards passing 3 out of the last 4 weeks. If we look at the 279 yard target today for Mahomes, they Steelers haven’t given up that many passing yards since week 11 against the Chargers. I’m siding with Less side on this one and I’m not looking back!
Travis Kelce – 69.5 Receiving Yards – Less
I highlighted above that the Steelers are extremely solid against the pass. If we dig down deep to see how they are against tight ends, they’ve been even more solid (if that’s even a thing). On the year, the Steelers have given up more than 69.5 yards just 4 times and just once over the past 7 weeks.
There are only a few tight ends with the upside that Kelce provides. That said, this year has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kelce. He had his fewest receiving yards and targets since 2017. He comes into this matchup today having only had 59 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks. I’m sure Chiefs fans will disagree with me on this one, but I think they keep Kelce in check today. I’m siding with the Less side on Kelce.
CeeDee Lamb – 68.5 Receiving Yards – More
If you were a fantasy owner of CeeDee Lamb this season you probably were left feeling somewhat disappointed, at least down the stretch. Although he cracked 1,100 yards in his sophomore season, his production when it mattered most was almost non-existent. Over the final 7 games of the year he failed to either top 90 yards or find the endzone. That all changes today in what should be one of the most important games in his young career.
Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a 68.5 yard target today and while I don’t think he smashes it, I do think he does enough to get north of that number. Prescott should have himself a day today and that will include using Lamb more than he has in recent weeks. I like the More side on this one.
Good luck and hope you make some money today!
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! !
The Thursday night showdown kicks off the Week 15 NFL DFS contests, and we’ve got the picks to help you win big tonight and make some serious green!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy and how it relates to Week 14 NFL DFS showdowns, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
Both teams have been hit by some COVID issues in the past two weeks (along with the rest of the NFL and world), but Patrick Mahomes has a near-full complement of weapons (missing just Josh Gordon) and will be the chalk tonight for CPT on both sites. There’s a case to be made for stacking up 3-4 Chargers to save some salary and using Justin Herbert in the top slot, but Mahomes has the current edge on the WinDaily optimizer over Herbert and Tyreek Hill.
Chiefs notes: Speaking of Hill, it’s been a while since he had one of his signature 150-200 yard games, but this could be the spot where he or Travis Kelce breaks loose with a monster multi-TD performance. With the O/U at 52 and the Chiefs 3-point favorites on the road, we should expect some fireworks from both offenses with a few key defenders missing. We can pencil in Clyde Edwards-Helaire for a heavy workload against a defense that’s vulnerable vs. the run, and my exposure to him will be about 4:1 over that of Darrel Williams, who still gets touches in big spots. Byron Pringle is about half the price of Mecole Hardman despite both carrying about the same upside and a similarly low floor, so I prefer Pringle at $2,600 if we need to squeeze in an extra Chief player. But kicker Harrison Butker is a better value than both of those guys anyway.
Chargers notes: Aside from the obvious trio of Herbert, Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, who is listed as questionable but expected to play at less than 100%, we can narrow our focus to the always risky but sometimes rewarding Mike Williams, TEs Jared Cook and Donald Parham, Jr., and WR Jared Guyton. I expect Joshua Palmer to see much fewer snaps this week with Allen on the field and much fewer than the team-leading seven targets he saw against the Giants assuming the role of WR1 for the Chargers. He’ll revert to WR4 but could still be in play in maybe 1/15 or 1/20 builds. If for some reason Ekeler ends up sitting, Justin Jackson and Joshua Kelley would likely split the backfield touches. There’s already word that Ekeler could be facing less than a full workload, so stay tuned to the pre-game reports leading up to lock.
Remember to build your team based on an NFL DFS narrative that makes sense, and explore every option.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Worry about spending every dollar.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Forget to watch the inactives.
Now that we’ve established some Week 15 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week 15 action!
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 14. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
Mahomes, Hill, and Kelce put up a ton of fantasy points in the Week 10 matchup versus the Raiders and it’s the same exploitable matchup this week. If I’m paying up for a tight end this week Kelce is the first player I’m locking in. My only fear with playing Chiefs pass catchers is the blowout factor. The Raiders are depleted and will have a tough time keeping pace. The Chiefs cruised to a 41-14 blowout a couple weeks back where Kelce hauled in 8 receptions for 119 yards. If Deebo is out I would prefer Kittle, but if Deebo is in I would prefer Kelce. So check back in as practice reports start coming in and make sure to check out our free live stream Sunday morning at 11am.
Kittle has finally got his legs under him and has been very active in the passing game ever since he returned in Week 9. He has put up double digit points in four of his last five games and had an outburst last week where he put up 42.6 DraftKings points with Deebo Samuel taking the week off. If Deebo is out again this week it’s a very tough choice to decide between Kittle and Kelce. Kelce’s matchup is slightly better but Kittle will be the number 1 target in the passing game if Deebo is out again. The Bengals rank 13th against opposing tight ends and give up the 27th most passing yards per game so Kittle could be in line for another big game. Continue to watch the reports and prepare to pivot to Kittle if Deebo is out in Week 14.
With Keenan Allen and Mike Williams most likely both out due to Covid19 protocols, Cook is in line for a major increase in his workload and target share. Cook may be the safest value piece on the board out of all the value plays in Los Angeles. We can play Cook alongside either Ekeler, Palmer, or Guyton. I will be maxing out at 3 but most likely playing Cook alone or with one other piece. Cook has been the starter all year and has an established rapport with Herbert, his role and fantasy floor is set in this offense. If you’re in love with Kelce or Kittle I don’t mind flexing Cook out as well because there is no safer value on the board currently than Cook. The #1 and #2 targets are out for LA, Cook is priced below market value, and we have a positive individual matchup against the Giants. Everyone will need shares of this offense as the Chargers are the best value on the board. My assumption is that Cook will be lowest owned of the bunch. I will be mixing and matching shares of Ekeler, Palmer, Guyton, and Cook in most of my tournament and cash lineups.
Full disclosure I hate playing anyone whose points are correlated to Baker Mayfield throwing him passes. With that being said Hooper is playable in tournaments only. The Browns receiving core is banged up, Landry is questionable, the other tight ends on the roster are confirmed out, and Hooper is priced right to be a low owned tournament value play at the position. Combine that with the fact he gets a great matchup versus the 31st ranked passing defense and we have nice upside play for Sunday. If the Browns had a good quarterback I would love this play but since it’s Baker under center I will just be taking a couple shots in tournaments.
Another value spot in Week 14 is Gerald Everett. This play may become elite if Metcalf who is currently questionable decides to sit this one out. Either way I like Everett in tournaments at this price tag. With Russ back at QB, Everett has seen 6, 9, 4, and 8 targets the last 4 weeks. The matchup versus Houston is a plus one as they rank 23rd against opposing tight ends. Granted the Seattle passing offense has been struggling all season but this should be a spot where they should shine indoors in Houston. Vegas has the Seahawks projected to score 24.5 points and without much of a run game, we can only hope Russ figures things out and connects with Everett. I will take a couple shots in tournaments to get a low owned play but he will be used less than the 4 players mentioned above.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 14 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 11. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
I guess after last week’s performance we now know that Travis Kelce is not washed and the man is still good at football. He caught 8 of his 10 targets for 119 yards receiving in a blowout and exceeded 20 points for the first time since Week 3. He will be rather popular this week due to the matchup against the Cowboys who rank 23rd against defending the tight end position. This game has the highest total on the board with a 56.5 over under, so I will be buying shares of Kelce and the Chiefs. The Chiefs are favored at home by 2.5 and are projected to score 29.5 points. Kelce will be my cash game play at the tight end position, and I will be overweight on him for tournaments.
A nice pivot off of Kelce will be Waller in Week 11. Waller has been rather quiet all year and has been battling an ankle injury for the past couple of weeks. Ownership will be low on Waller as everyone will be hopping back onto the Kelce bandwagon. In cash I will be doing the same as the floor is safer with Kelce, but in tournaments I will be taking some shots on Waller as a one off. The Bengals have been gashed through the air for 260 yards and are allowing 361 total yards per game as a defense. The pivot on FanDuel doesn’t make much sense for only $200 of savings but on DraftKings the $1,000 can go a long way to upgrade another spot in your lineup.
Similar to Waller, Kittle is a nice pivot off of Kelce in tournaments. Coming off of 2 impressive games after a long stint on injured reserve, Kittle is primed for another nice performance in Week 11. Kittle gets a juicy matchup versus the Jaguars who rank 24th at defending the tight end position. This Jaguars defense weakness is defending the pass as they rank 25th against the pass and give up the 24th most points per game. Kittle has averaged over 5 targets per game in his last 4 starts and is the second option in the passing game behind Deebo. The Niners are projected to score 26 points in this game and with Jimmy G back in command of this offense Kittle should be in line for a good game in Week 11.
I haven’t targeted players from the Bears the whole season and I would never pay up for one. But in lineups I need value Kmet makes sense. In the last 4 games, Kmet has been targeted 25 times and has paid off his salary in 3 of those 4 games. He hasn’t found paydirt all season and the confidence I have in this offense as a whole is not great. With that being said, the price is right on Kmet. Kmet has slid into the second most targeted spot since Fields has become the starter, which allows me to take some shots rostering him in tournaments. The Ravens present a nice opposition as they rank 25th against tight ends and are a league worst pass defense allowing the most passing yards. At half the cost of Kelce on DraftKings, I will be totally fine with 8-10 points from Kmet in Week 11.
Another value spot in Week 11 is Gerald Everett. With Russ back at QB last week, Everett caught all 8 of his targets for 63 yards. The matchup versus Arizona is not ideal by any means as I respect their defense. But if Seattle can move the ball as well as PJ and the Panthers did last week we can see a nice game out of Everett again. Everett is the safety valve in this offense. So if Arizona brings the pressure which I believe they do, Everett should be targeted a bunch as Metcalf and Lockett look to push the ball down field. I do like this matchup better if Kyler Murray plays and pushes the pace. This will lead to the Seahawks playing from behind, which should increase Everett’s reception and yardage numbers. If Murray plays, I have a slight lean to Everett and if he doesn’t Kmet might be the better option for tournaments in Week 11.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 11 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Welcome to the Week 10 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.
Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.
Let’s dig in to the data!
Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.
No Big Ben, no problem for Diontae Johnson. Even though Johnson was missing his QB this weekend he was still able to lead all wide receivers this weekend 13 targets. Of those 13 targets, he was able to catch 7 for 83 yards. While the 13 targets matched his season high in targets, Johnson has now gone 4 consecutive weeks without finding the end zone. Johnson’s next opponent has me thinking his touchdown less streak will last at least 5 weeks as the Chargers have only allowed 4 receiving touchdowns all year to wide receivers.
This was the game we’ve been waiting for. Stefon Diggs hadn’t reached 100 yards receiving since week 4 against the Texans. I wouldn’t necessarily call it a slump because he has had a couple of touchdowns since then, but the productivity just hadn’t been there for Diggs.
What better slump buster than the New York Jets? None. Diggs led all receivers yesterday with 162 receiving yards. Up next is a match up against the Indianapolis Colts, a team that has shown some susceptibility to giving up big games to big time receivers.
Tyreek Hill showed again this weekend why he is one of the most dynamic, albeit most frustrating wide receivers in the game. No receiver in the league presents the upside that Hill has. He is one of the top in the league in terms are average depth of targets.
With him, it’s just a matter of ‘will he catch the ball today?’ Well last night he certainly did. Hill caught 7 of 10 targets for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns. That was his first multi touchdown game since week 4 against the Eagles. Next week will be a tough match up against a solid Cowboys team.
Guess who’s back, back again? For the first time this season Christian McCaffrey was the target leader for running backs. It was also the first time this season that he reached double digit targets. Being the dual threat running back is what has made McCaffrey into one of the premier backs in the league. This weekend had to be an encouraging sign for his fantasy owners.
With Alvin Kamara missing the game this weekend the New Orleans Saints turned to their old friend in Mark Ingram to be the lead back. Ingram was most effective this weekend catching passes as he caught 4 of 7 targets for 61 years. The 61 receiving yards were the most he’s had all season. While the weekend was great for Ingram, it will be short lived as once Kamara is back he’ll go back to his role of being the secondary back.
When your QB is on fire, you’re bound to revel in the results as well. Darrel Williams had a perfect night on Sunday. He caught all 9 of his targets and led all running backs with 101 receiving yards.
We’ve already highlighted a wide receiver and a running back in our targets section, may as well highlight a tight end too!. Travis Kelce had one of his most productive weeks in quite some time. For the first time since week 3 against the Chargers Kelce eclipsed the 100 yard mark. He caught 8 of his 10 targets this weekend and for Kelce owners that were worried about his tailing off production, this weekend hopefully calmed some nerves.
I think we can all agree that this week by Mike Gesicki was statistically one of the worst weekends we’ve seen in quite some time. Gesicki was targeted 7 times on Thursday night and didn’t catch a single one of them. Gesicki will look to get back on track next weekend against the New York Jets. We’ve already talked about them being a great slump buster. They’ll get to prove it next weekend again.
The combination of McCaffrey and Abdullah were at it again this weekend. Carolina threw the ball 32 times this weekend and 14 of those went to either McCaffrey or Abdullah. This is the second straight week that Carolina led the leagues in terms of using their running backs as part of the passing game.
This weekend we had 2 teams that targeted their tight ends at least 30% of the time in the passing game, Browns and Dolphins. Neither team really had much success as it only resulted in 1 touchdown for Hooper and a sub 50% completion rate between the 2 teams.
Josh Allen was the only quarterback this weekend to throw at least 80% of his passes to receivers. In fact, no other quarterback topped 70%. With the Bills up from the start, well they were probably up before the game even started to, Allen only had to throw the ball 28 times this weekend. Of those 28 passes, 13 went to Stefon Diggs. Only 4 of his passes went to either his tight end or running backs.
Jonathan Taylor continues to be a staple of this section. Taylor now has reached the 100 yard mark in 4 out of the last 5 weeks and has a touchdown in 7 straight. Over those 7 weeks he has 10 touchdowns on the ground and in the air.
Of all the backs with at least 20 carries this weekend no one had more yards per carry than Taylor. The next closest guy was Najee Harris who was a whole yard and a half behind Taylor. The guy is becoming one of the top running backs in the league. I just hope you all are taking notice.
With some questionable weather in Pittsburgh yesterday and an ineffective passing game, the Lions turned to D’Andre Swift yesterday. And boy did they turn to him. Up until this weekend Swift hadn’t carried the ball more than 14 times. This weekend he finished with 33 carries.
For the first time this year he surpassed the 100 yard rushing mark and finished with 130 yards. The only thing that could have made this weekend better for him was a touchdown because for the first time this year the Lions did not lose.
The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend. Week in and week out we continue to see Philly run a predominantly run focused offense. This weekend nearly 65% of the plays they called were runs.
40 running plays vs. just 22 passes. Unfortunately for us the Eagles have as crowded of a backfield as there is with Boston Scott and Jordan Howard splitting duties. Jalen Hurts had more rushes than both Scott and Howard.
With the Buccaneers down from the start the ago and an ineffective run game Tom Brady tried his best to throw the Bucs to victory. The Buccaneers passed the ball more than 70% on the Sunday. Unfortunately they came up short as they lost to the Washington Football Team by 10 points.
The NFL returned to some normalcy this weekend. Patrick Mahomes no longer looked like Mitch Trubisky this weekend and had one of his best games of the year. The Dallas Cowboys also returned to form with an absolutely dominating performance against the Atlanta Falcons.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 10. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
It’s slim pickings in the tight end pool in Week 10. The goal is to avoid land mines and simply find ways to hit value in different price tiers. I am typically the most optimistic person in the room but it’s truly bad out here and I’m simply looking for safe floors to land on. Pitts has been up and down all season but lands with a great matchup in Week 10. The Cowboys rank 22nd against opposing tight ends and are currently allowing 270 passing yards per game. Pitts will be popular for various reasons. He is the highest priced tight end and is involved in the highest projected scoring game as well. With the over under set for 55 in this matchup versus the Cowboys, we should be a high paced affair with game script in the favor of the passing attack for the Falcons. Pitts has received 40 targets in the past 5 games and has exceeded over 20+ points in 2 of the 5 games. The upside is there along with the floor, so I will have a solid amount of Pitts in Week 10.
As stated above, this game is the highest scoring game on the slate as per Vegas. Similar to Pitts, the floor is set with Schultz and the consistency has been there all season. Dalton has averaged 12 fantasy points per game and I will be content with an average game from him in Week 10. With that being said, the matchup against the Falcons is one I always like to pick on. The Falcons defense is allowing 26 points per game and they rank 17th against opposing tight ends. Both these metrics should lead to another double digit performance for Schultz and if this game stays close through 4 quarters we should see a ceiling game out of him and the passing attack of the Cowboys.
This dude can ball and he has emerged as one of, if not the favorite targets of Big Ben. Freiermuth catches everything thrown his way and is starting to rack up the red zone looks. With 3 touchdowns in the past 2 games and double digit fantasy point performances in all 3 games, he is starting to cement himself as one of the better tight ends in the game. The Lions are ranked 12th against opposing tight ends and are allowing 29 points per game, which is the second highest in the league. This should be an up pace game for the Steelers, which are coming off of 5 tough matchups over the past month. We should see an outburst from Ben and Pat in Week 10, and I prefer the discount at the tight end position with most of the top tier tight ends not on the main slate.
Jared Cook is a tournament only play for me at the tight end position. The targets for Cook are a tier below the 3 tight ends mentioned above and Cook is the 3rd to 4th option on his team. The price is right on Cook and the game is also the second highest on the slate with a projected total of 53 points. The Vikings are a middle of the pack defense and both these teams are typically involved in high scoring affairs. The hope for Cook in this one is a couple extra looks and for him to find his way into the end zone. I prefer Freiermuth, but may look to grab a couple shares of Cook in Week 10 at lower ownership.
If we need value on the slate at lower ownership, we can look to Conklin in a nice matchup versus the Charger secondary and linebackers which are really struggling this year. The Chargers currently rank 28th against opposing tight ends. Targets are beginning to funnel to Conklin which provides a nice floor at this price tag in tournaments. Conklin has received 28 targets over the past 5 games which is not too far behind both Thielen and Jefferson. He is a DraftKings only play for me in tournaments only when you need the salary savings to pay up at other spots. So if you need the savings in Week 10 look to Conklin in tournaments.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 10 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
Just like that and we are already in NFL Week 9. We have had a good run on tight ends and hope to continue providing value each week in my NFL DFS Tight Ends article. Tight ends are sometimes forgotten and left to the last pick in your lineup and that can easily leave you with an outcome of 0-2 points. This could be devastating for your chances of a takedown or simply cashing. Each week I will lay out my favorite options up top and the best value plays on the board as well. Once you’re done reading this article make sure to hop in our expert chat on Discord to stay up to date with lineup discussions.
The emotions of fantasy football are getting the best of the industry. Through the first 3 weeks of the season, if you faded Kelce you were mocked. During the last 2 weeks, I have heard everything from Kelce is washed to the Chiefs should engage in trade talks for Kelce and Hill. That means Kelce will most likely be low owned in Week 9 and I will buy low on him. We got a depressed price tag combined with an opening total of 54.5 points versus the Packers. The line has swung dramatically with the news of Rodgers being out. The over has dropped by 6 and the Chiefs are now 8 point favorites. This should be a get right spot for Kelce, who is still receiving the targets and it’s only a matter of time until the production returns. Kelce has received 40 targets the past 4 weeks which hasn’t led to his usual fantasy output but I will be removing the recent results when molding my lineups. He is a fine one off, but I will get most of my shares of Kelce when pairing him with Mahomes in Week 9.
As long as Waller is a full go this week in practices I will get some shares of him in Week 9. With two weeks off, I’m hoping Waller is back to full strength. Combine that with more targets to go around with the unfortunate incident with Ruggs, and we should see a nice output from Waller this Sunday. The Giants are middle of the pack at defending the tight end, and in total defense. The Raiders are projected to score 24.5 points on Sunday and with not much of a run game, Waller should be involved through 4 quarters. Waller is averaging close to 9 targets per game and only 5.5 receptions. The connection from Carr to Waller should become more efficient and while fantasy players have forgotten about him it’s the time to take some shots in tournaments.
Gesicki has been a great season long tight end draft pick to start this season. He has been consistently productive every week and provides stability at a position which can leave you frustrated. Gesicki has averaged 13 points per game and has become one of Tua’s favorite targets. Just like Kelce and Waller, Gesicki is a wide receiver playing the role of a tight end. Gesicki has an upside matchup this week against Houston who currently ranks 29th against opposing tight ends and are allowing the 30th worst 401 total yards per game. The targets are there each week and the production will continue to be there for Gesicki. If you can’t afford Kelce or Waller, Gesicki is the first name I will roster on DraftKings, but on FanDuel I will take the upside in Waller.
Goedert just happens to be the most consistent receiver in the Eagles offense. Through the blowout last week of the Lions, Goedert was the only pass catcher who hit value. This game shouldn’t be lopsided and if the game script goes as Vegas has planned the Eagles should be trailing in this one. Since Ertz has been traded, Goedert has had back to back double digit fantasy point performances. This matchup will be the best opportunity for Goedert to reach for new highs since the departure of Ertz. The Chargers rank 30th against opposing tight ends and we have one of the highest game totals of the entire slate sitting at 50 points. When taking into account the matchup and the high total, Goedert will be heavily involved through 4 quarters, leading to a ceiling game in Week 9.
If we need value on the slate, we can look to Conklin in a nice matchup versus the Baltimore secondary and linebackers which are really struggling this year. Baltimore currently ranks 31st against opposing tight ends and is allowing a league worst 296.1 passing yards per game. Targets are beginning to funnel to Conklin which provides a nice floor at this price tag in tournaments. Conklin has received 29 targets over the past 5 games which is not too far behind both Thielen and Jefferson. He is a DraftKings only play for me in tournaments only when you need the salary savings to pay up at other spots. So if you need the savings in Week 9 look to Conklin in tournaments.
Thanks for reading our NFL Week 9 DFS Tight Ends article and the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, covering cash games and tournaments, and we will have articles, videos, and podcasts so lock in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last minute news.
The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!
NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
While Patrick Mahomes has struggled in recent weeks and looks a far cry from his normal dominant self, he’s the chalk at captain in this week’s showdown and should have little trouble racking up big numbers in this favorable matchup. If the Chiefs establish some sort of effective ground game or just jump out to a big early lead, there may be some leverage in using Daniel Jones at captain and flanking him with some of the Giants pass receivers, including two guys who are both questionable heading into the Monday night battle: Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney. Toney is the real wild card this week, as he can be used in myriad ways and the “Q” tag will keep most of the masses off of him in their initial builds.
Chiefs notes: The usual suspects are in play for Kansas City, including Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, both of whom can you can fit in builds with Mahomes if you adopt the narrative that the ancillary Giants pass receivers are the ones who end up making the most impact. This is a “get right” spot for the Chiefs and I doubt they’ll have little trouble effectively targeting their big guns against a middle-of-the-road NFL defense like this Giants unit. The game script certainly favors more Darrel Williams this week, so picking one of Kelce or Hill and stacking with Mahomes and the Chiefs RB makes a lot of sense. I really think this is another big Tyreek game, so he’s going to be my main focus outside of Mahomes.
Giants notes: Shepard looks like a go, and while I do love me some Darius Slayton, if Shepard plays he’s probably the safer option. Slayton makes for a fine plug-n-play if Toney ends up sitting this out, but the Giants have been finding ways of getting the electric rookie RW the ball, even if it means sacrificing some of the targets that go to TE Evan Engram, who’s also in play tonight. With Saquon Barkley still out, Devontae Booker remains the got-to RB in the Giants backfield and should see plenty of touches, but his upside is a bit capped unless the Giants hang can early and often. Dante Pettis and John Ross could see a big play here or there, but the return of Shepard dings their value a bit.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Feature many shares of the Giants DST, who will have its hands full with this Chiefs offense.
DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.
DON’T: Forget about the fringe Giants WRs, especially if one or more of Shepard or Toney sits.
Now that we’ve established some Week 8 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for next week’s action!
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