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Tom Brady

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight Picks and Plays – 12/26/2021

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We are in the home stretch of the NFL season. It’s Week 16 and we are starting to get a clearer, but packed playoff picture. Today we have a solid lineup of games and some teams looking to bounce back after sub-par games last weekend.

Let’s dig in and see if we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.

More or Less – 3.6x Payout

Matthew Stafford – 280.5 Passing Yards – More

Matthew Stafford has the potential to have an absolute monster game today vs. the Vikings. Only 2 teams this season have given up more passing yards to QB’s than the Vikings. In total, they’ve given up over 3,800 yards passing to QB’s. The magical number that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us for Stafford today is 280.5. The Vikings have given up more than this number 7 times. Most importantly though, they give up at least 280 yards 4 times in their last 5 games. Their secondary has been taking a beating.

If we switch gears and look at what Stafford has done of late I’m pretty confident that he’ll get to the 281 yards needed to beat his target today. He’s thrown for at least 281 yards in 6 of his last 8 contests. Stafford has as good of a crop of pass-catchers as you’ll see in the game. The group of Kupp, Beckham Jr., Jefferson, and Higbee should help Stafford get to his number today. I’m going with the More side.

Tom Brady – 280.5 Passing Yards – Less

Tom Brady will be without his top running back in Leonard Fournette today. Although Ronald Jones is a very capable back I expect Brady to throw even more than he normally if that’s even possible as the Buccaneers offense is a pass-heavy offense. Week in and week out the Buccaneers are running about a 70/30 pass to run offense. One of my biggest trepidations here is that the path to beating the Panthers is on the ground, not through the air.

Only the Bills have given up fewer passing yards than the Panthers this season. If we look at the target of 280.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight set today, the Panthers have given this up just once this season and that was all the way back in week 6 vs. the Vikings.

My other big reason for concern here is that Brady will be without the 2 guys that he has relied on heavily this year in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Between the 2 of them, they’ve accounted for over 2,000 yards this season. Not having them on the field today will be a big blow for Brady. The Buccaneers are expected to get Antonio Brown back today but that’s just not enough for me here. Anything can happen on a Sunday, especially when your name is Tom Brady. There are just too many negatives here for me today. I’m going with the Less side for Brady.

More or Less – 3x Payout

James Robinson – 75.5 Rushing Yards – More

With Urban Meyer out of the picture, it’s starting to be James Robinson’s time to shine. He started to shine last weekend against a poor Houston Texans team as he rushed for 75 yards and a TD. This week he gets an equally tasty matchup as the Jets are just as bad against the run as the Texans. The Texans and Jets have given up more rushing yards than any other teams in the business.

The Jets have been especially atrocious against the run in recent games. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing to running backs in 6 of their last 8 games. Over the last 3 weeks, running backs have more than 460 yards rushing against them. I’m not going to sit here and say that the way to beat the Jets is on the ground as they’re an overall bad squad. But they are 100% attackable on the ground and the 75.5 rushing yards goal that we’re getting from Monkey Knife Fight today seems extremely attainable for a guy like Robinson. I’m going with the More side on this one.

Alexander Mattison – 69.5 Rushing Yards – Less

Alexander Mattison should get the start today with Dalvin Cook on the shelf due to Covid protocols. In the three games that Mattison has started this year, he’s done nothing but produce. In each of those 3 games, he had more than 20 carries and at least 90 yards rushing. On most other teams he’d be the top guy carrying the ball. With that said, I think today is the day that Mattison struggles as a starter.

2 of the 3 games he started were against the Lions and the third was against the Seahawks. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of run defense. In the Rams, we’re getting a team that is extremely solid against the run. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing to running backs just 4 times on the year. I expect the Rams to get out in front early in this game which will mean more passes from Kirk Cousins. More passes will mean fewer carries for Mattison. Getting to 70 yards will be tough for him today. I’m siding with Less here.

Good luck tonight and hope you cash!

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3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 15 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 15 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

Unlike weeks past, we still have 2 games to play today and 2 tomorrow. Thanks COVID!

Let’s dig in to the data!

Wide Receiver Targets

Before we dig in to individual player performances I wanted to take a moment to talk about why we focus so heavily on Targets. Targets equal opportunities and in fantasy opportunity more often than creates production. The more targets that a player gets the better chance there is that the player will return on value.

If you have ask most Ravens fans, Marquise Brown had 1 less target than he should have had in Week 15. Many camera angles show him wide open in the end zone when they went for 2. That said, he still had a great weekend in terms of targets. No one in the NFL had more targets than Brown did this weekend. Brown was targeted 14 times this. It’s not all rosy picture though for Brown.

Even though he was able to catch 10 of his targets, he went for only 43 yards passing. After getting 116 yards vs. the Vikings in week 9 Brown now has 6 consecutive weeks of less than 60 receiving yards and also hasn’t found the end zone since Week 7 vs. the Bengals. If the Ravens have any hope of beating the Bengals next weekend they’ll need a bounce back game from Brown.

While Brown had a down week, Tyreek Hill showed the world why he is one of the most dynamic players in the game, albeit frustrating players as well. Hill had gone 9 consecutive games without breaking the 100 yard mark. This week he broke it with some room to spare. Hill was able to catch 12 of his 13 week 15 targets for 148 receiving yards. He was also able to find the end zone for the first time since week 10. Hill and his teammates look to keep the good times rolling against the Steelers in Week 16.

Brandon Cooks, have yourself a day! For the second consecutive week Cooks had double digit targets and over 100 yards receiving. With opening week starter Tyrod Taylor down with an injury, Cooks and Davis Mills have really found a rhythm together and it’s been somewhat fun to watch. The two of them also connected for 2 touchdowns this weekend. Up next week is a much tougher assignment in the Chargers. Can they keep connecting like they have been?

Running Back Targets

Penn State alum Saquon Barkley led all backs this weekend with 8 targets. The good news? He was able to catch 4 of them. The bad news? He did absolutely nothing with the targets as he finished with just 24 receiving yards. There’s no other way to describe his 2021 season than saying it’s an utter disappointment. He’ll look to get back on track next weekend vs. an Eagles team that is fighting for their playoff lives.

I’m not going to spend too much time talking about running backs and targets this weekend as running backs and targets did not mix well. Not a single back had more than 50 yards receiving this weekend and there were only 5 receiving touchdowns for backs. Ameer Abdullah led all running backs in receiving yards. If that doesn’t tell you about the weekend and running backs, I don’t know what will.

Tight End Targets

Where I do want to spend some time is with Tight Ends. I’ll start with Mark Andrews. Week 15 was very kind to Andrews. He led all tight ends with 13 targets. Andrews was able to catch 10 of them for 136 yards and 2 scores. My season long fantasy team thanks you very much. This was Andrews second consecutive week with over 100 yards receiving and fourth overall. Up next week for Andrews and his mates are the Cincinnati Bengals in a must win game for the Ravens.

While Andrews had a stellar week, Travis Kelce was really the one who stole the show. Kelce finished 9 yards shy of the 200 yard mark. He was able to convert his 13 targets into 10 catches and 2 touchdowns. This was Kelce’s first 100 yard game since week 10 against the Raiders. The combo of Hill and Kelce combined for well over 300 yards. They’ll look to do it against this coming weekend against the Steelers.

We won’t go down the negative road and talk about the night that Rob Gronkowski had. Ok, you talked me into it. Gronk had arguably his worst game of the year, as did Brady. The only other game that comes close to his poor week 15 performance was all the way back in week 8 vs. the same New Orleans Saints. Gronk was targeted 11 times yesterday and was only able to catch 2 of them for just 29 yards. Gronk season long owners in the playoffs probably weren’t too happy with that yesterday.

Quarterback Target Share

Ryan Tannehill threw the ball 32 times in week 15. Of those 32 times, more than half went to either his running backs or tight ends. Once Julio Jones left the game yesterday, it became a much different plan of attack for Tannehill. Tannehill now has 3 consecutive weeks with less than 200 yards passing. With both his top receivers injured he’s struggled to find anyone else.

When you have a tight end like Mark Andrews, you use him heavily. That’s exactly what Tyler Huntley did on Sunday. Of the 39 pass attempts for Huntley, a third of them went to Andrews. Another third went to Marquise Brown, although those were far less successful than Andrews’ targets. This has pretty much been the game plan all year. Thrown to either Andrews or Brown and it has worked with much success.

If you expected the Lions to completely dominate the Cardinals in week 15 raise your hand? I doubt anyone is raising their hand right now. Jared Goff had his way with the Cardinals secondary yesterday. Goff only threw the ball 26 times yesterday, but 21 of them were caught which is an extremely solid completion %. Of his 26 attempts, 20 went to his wide receivers. Amon-Ra St. Brown was the biggest beneficiary as he caught 8 of his 11 targets for 90 yards and a score.

Running Back Touches

At this point, Jonathan Taylor has to be considered one of the front runners for the MVP. Week in and week out he has been a stud. He’s reached the 100 yard mark in 8 of his last 11 games. Taylor also has touchdowns in all but his first 3 games of the year. The Colts are in the thick of the playoff race right now and it’s 100% due to the play of Taylor.

With the Lions top 2 running backs on the shelf this weekend, Craig Reynolds stepped up and boy did he step up. He was second to only Taylor in week 15 with 26 carries. He made the most of his carries as he finished with 112 yards on the ground. In his two weeks carrying the ball Reynolds now has 195 yards on 37 carries. Not bad for someone cut earlier in the year.

Just moments before kick off the Dolphins announced that Duke Johnson would be the starting running back. That 100% looked like the right call in week 15 as Johnson finished with 107 yards on 22 carries and 2 touchdowns. While Gaskin owners I’m sure weren’t overly enthusiastic about the move, it worked for the Dolphins as they beat up on the lowly Jets. Up next week is a much tougher task in the Saints and you have to think that the Dolphins will turn to a healthy Gaskin more.

Playbook

The ‘Playbook’ as I like to call it shows a breakdown of the play splits that teams used this past weekend.

The Indianapolis Colts ran the ball almost 80% of the time in week 15. Why not when you have the league’s most prolific back. Of the Colts 51 plays this week, 39 were for runs compared to just 12 pass plays. It worked for them this week as they surprisingly beat the Patriots 27-17.

Tampa Bay continued to throw often last night, even thought it just wasn’t working. Tom Brady threw the ball 48 times and had only 26 completions. It was just the second time all year that Brady was held without a passing touchdown. A lot of it was due to the fact that the Buccaneers were decimated by injuries last night as they lost Fournette, Evans, and Godwin to injuries mid game. That led to Tom Brady being shutout for the first time in 15 years.

Inside Look Wrap Up

Week 15 was as weird of a weekend as we’ve seen in quite some time, and hope to see in the near future. Covid wreaked havoc on the schedule as we now have a 2 game slate on a Tuesday and a Monday afternoon game. We did have some solid performances as 5 backs rushed for over 100 yards and another 5 guys had over 100 receiving yards. We still have a healthy amount of games left with 4 still to play.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: The Inside Look- Week 14 – Win Daily Sports

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Welcome to the Week 14 edition of The Inside Look for the 2021 NFL season. This will be a data driven article and will go under the hood to see if the box scores tell the whole story about what transpired during the weekend. My goal here will be to either calm your nerves about a player that may have underperformed or cause you to rethink some of the spots you may have taken.

Outside of the MNF game we have a pretty good sense of what transpired this past weekend.

Let’s dig in to the data!