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We are in the home stretch of the NFL season. It’s Week 16 and we are starting to get a clearer, but packed playoff picture. Today we have a solid lineup of games and some teams looking to bounce back after sub-par games last weekend.
Let’s dig in and see if we can find some Monkey Knight Fight games we can win.
More or Less – 3.6x Payout
Matthew Stafford – 280.5 Passing Yards – More
Matthew Stafford has the potential to have an absolute monster game today vs. the Vikings. Only 2 teams this season have given up more passing yards to QB’s than the Vikings. In total, they’ve given up over 3,800 yards passing to QB’s. The magical number that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us for Stafford today is 280.5. The Vikings have given up more than this number 7 times. Most importantly though, they give up at least 280 yards 4 times in their last 5 games. Their secondary has been taking a beating.
If we switch gears and look at what Stafford has done of late I’m pretty confident that he’ll get to the 281 yards needed to beat his target today. He’s thrown for at least 281 yards in 6 of his last 8 contests. Stafford has as good of a crop of pass-catchers as you’ll see in the game. The group of Kupp, Beckham Jr., Jefferson, and Higbee should help Stafford get to his number today. I’m going with the More side.
Tom Brady – 280.5 Passing Yards – Less
Tom Brady will be without his top running back in Leonard Fournette today. Although Ronald Jones is a very capable back I expect Brady to throw even more than he normally if that’s even possible as the Buccaneers offense is a pass-heavy offense. Week in and week out the Buccaneers are running about a 70/30 pass to run offense. One of my biggest trepidations here is that the path to beating the Panthers is on the ground, not through the air.
Only the Bills have given up fewer passing yards than the Panthers this season. If we look at the target of 280.5 yards that Monkey Knife Fight set today, the Panthers have given this up just once this season and that was all the way back in week 6 vs. the Vikings.
My other big reason for concern here is that Brady will be without the 2 guys that he has relied on heavily this year in Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Between the 2 of them, they’ve accounted for over 2,000 yards this season. Not having them on the field today will be a big blow for Brady. The Buccaneers are expected to get Antonio Brown back today but that’s just not enough for me here. Anything can happen on a Sunday, especially when your name is Tom Brady. There are just too many negatives here for me today. I’m going with the Less side for Brady.
More or Less – 3x Payout
James Robinson – 75.5 Rushing Yards – More
With Urban Meyer out of the picture, it’s starting to be James Robinson’s time to shine. He started to shine last weekend against a poor Houston Texans team as he rushed for 75 yards and a TD. This week he gets an equally tasty matchup as the Jets are just as bad against the run as the Texans. The Texans and Jets have given up more rushing yards than any other teams in the business.
The Jets have been especially atrocious against the run in recent games. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing to running backs in 6 of their last 8 games. Over the last 3 weeks, running backs have more than 460 yards rushing against them. I’m not going to sit here and say that the way to beat the Jets is on the ground as they’re an overall bad squad. But they are 100% attackable on the ground and the 75.5 rushing yards goal that we’re getting from Monkey Knife Fight today seems extremely attainable for a guy like Robinson. I’m going with the More side on this one.
Alexander Mattison – 69.5 Rushing Yards – Less
Alexander Mattison should get the start today with Dalvin Cook on the shelf due to Covid protocols. In the three games that Mattison has started this year, he’s done nothing but produce. In each of those 3 games, he had more than 20 carries and at least 90 yards rushing. On most other teams he’d be the top guy carrying the ball. With that said, I think today is the day that Mattison struggles as a starter.
2 of the 3 games he started were against the Lions and the third was against the Seahawks. Both teams are in the bottom half of the league in terms of run defense. In the Rams, we’re getting a team that is extremely solid against the run. They’ve given up more than 100 yards rushing to running backs just 4 times on the year. I expect the Rams to get out in front early in this game which will mean more passes from Kirk Cousins. More passes will mean fewer carries for Mattison. Getting to 70 yards will be tough for him today. I’m siding with Less here.
Good luck tonight and hope you cash!
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New to the DFS writing world but have been playing DFS since BVP was cool. Started play season long fantasy when sporting news was used to calculate weekly scores. Originally from Brooklyn, NY but now a Baltmore resident.