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Tom Brady

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Uriah Wesson 3 years ago

written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 4th of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

I am going to be honest, I do not enjoy having to parse through the Bucs offense in any way shape or form. The 2020 Super Bowl Champions just have a wealth of talent to choose from and Tom Brady is the single best QB of all time when it comes to finding the open target wherever it may be. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard. Do you see why this is a nightmare from a fantasy perspective?

Defensively the Buccaneers have been a consistent top three against the run and pass for several years now with Todd Bowles at the helm and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change. Up front they have, Ndamukong Suh, Vea Vita, an Will Gholston, Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White at linebacker, and Jamel Dean, Antione Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead in the secondary. If you guys spot a gap in their defense please tell me, I could use the help.

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

In order to be better at drafting your fantasy teams it is key to recognize your biases and I have a clear bias against Evans. Every year I target him he has underperformed against his ADP and every year I stay clear he does not. This may be the first year that bias will not play a roll for me. I just happen to be telling folks to let the Bucs be someone elses headache. In 2020 he had 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over half of those yards (517 of them) and 31 of those 70 grabs came in only four games. That inconsistency will only be worse with Antonio Brown fully involved in the offense and Chris Godwin not dealing with a finger injury.

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Godwin is one of the top two or three slot receivers in the game right now and even hampered with injuries through most of the year he finished 2020 with 840 yards and seven touchdowns. If he played for anyone else he would be a top 25 overall selection but he suffers the same issues as the rest of the Bucs offense. There is too much depth. He only exceeded 100 yards once through the entire season and that was week 16 against the Falcons secondary that was largely practice squad players and some guys who were signed from the local flag football team in Atlanta.

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Tom Brady is likely going to be my only target on this entire team unless we have some ADP changes. Figuring out out which guy will have a big year of the 8 options is nearly impossible so just do yourself a favor and pick the guy who is throwing the ball. You know who Tom Brady is and you either think he can still play and you draft him. Or, you think father time will catch up and you do not. It is really that simple.

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

If you were to force me to pick a running back for the Bucs RoJo would be my choice. You are not going to get any kind of tangible ADP discount, I just think he is a better back. His yards per carry was over a full yard better than Fournette (5.1 compared to 3.8) and both Fournette and Jones are decent receivers out of the backfield. The downside (apart from depth) is that Bruce Arians will bench Jones for entire games out of nowhere because he missed a block or was late to a practice. It is so bad and so random it feels personal. In 2019 during one of Winston’s multiple five turnover games, he missed a read. Winston got a pass while Jones was almost completely removed from the offense and chastised publicly. I am just going to pass unless it is best ball.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

The one thing that we kind of had some consistency on with the Bucs backfield in 2020 was that Fournette was going to get more work than Jones in passing down situations. That is no longer a given. Brady went out and personally recruited Giovanni Bernard in the offseason to presumably fill the “James White” role. If you did not know any better you would assume that it was Bill Belichick who was the main driver of the maddening three and four running back by committee backfields. This is actually a preference that Brady shares wholeheartedly and he has gone out of his way to recreate this in Tampa. This is a nightmare of a backfield now so have fun pulling out your hair if you get in on it.

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

If you were to tell me that I HAD to draft a receiver from this Bucs squad this season the only one I would feel remotely comfortable with at their current ADP is AB. With a full offseason under his belt with Tampa and a quiet-ish offseason in what feels like an eternity for him, he is the only Buc who I think has a chance to exceed their value. in only four starts last year the seven-time pro bowl receiver caught 45 of his 62 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception were about two yards less than his career average (10.7 in 2020 compared to 13.3 over his career) but I think that has more to do with him getting familiar with the offense and getting himself into game shape. Year two with the Bucs should have a full playbook available to him and plenty of opportunities to exceed 1,000 yards and catch anywhere between 6-8 touchdowns. For a player that you can get as your fourth wide receiver in the 10th round he is the one receiver on the Bucs roster you can afford to take a shot on.

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

I do not want this to be misinterpreted so let me be clear, I am not saying they are in the same league right now but how many people are aware that Gronk and Kelce are only six months apart in terms of age? How about how he only has one more season under his belt? Sure, injuries have slowed him down but these two guys were neck and neck for years in terms of fantasy stat lines. He played a full 16 games last year and caught 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns (that’s TE 8 in PPR) and you can get him 13-14 rounds later. If you want to completely punt the position and load up on running backs and receivers or you are in a Tight End premium league there are plenty of worse options to go with.

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

I am not going any further and I am going to be brief. Bernard should only be drafted in the absolute deepest of PPR leagues as a final depth piece and even then I think I could find better options. Brady specifically wanted him to be on the team, he is sure-handed as his history in Cincy would suggest, and Brady needs a competent blocker in the backfield during passing down situations going into his age 44 season. ADP seems steep but I have drafted in a ton of best ball drafts and I personally have not seen in drafted in any of them so I am thinking the 182 climbs closer to 190-200 as we get closer to week one.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

This preview is probably the single most challenging one that I will have through all 32 teams. The Bucs are extremely deep to the point of absurdity, they have a quarterback who may be the best ever at spreading the ball around, and to top it all off they have a defense that can shut opposing teams down making the need to even score points an unnecessary luxury some weeks. When it comes to drafting your fantasy teams you want to aim for clear situations with narrow player pools and while the depth chart is “clear”, there is no wider player pool in the NFL. If you are drafting these guys I wish you the best of luck, because it is going to be a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL DFS Super Bowl Showdown Spectacular: Chiefs at Bucs

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re bringing you NFL DFS analysis that breaks down the Super Bowl Showdown contests — helping you win big money in the big game!

Let’s start off by acknowledging that the Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites on the road against the best QB in NFL history, and that the chalkiest game script would make Tom Brady the most likely candidate to rack up the most points on either site – especially considering how much the Bucs spread the ball around to multiple receivers.

If the Chiefs jump out to any kind of lead in this road game, there’s a very good chance the Bucs will make a run – and there’s not much of a chance the Chiefs blow out Tampa Bay on their home turf.

There are some interesting pricing options we should observe – most notably the low DK price on Ronald Jones II and the relatively high tag for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on both sites. Neither of these guys should be written off. I’ll be mixing in hares of both backs considering their talents and the long time they’ve had to recover from injuries – not to mention the relatively low ownership they’ll garner despite soaring upside. I’m comfortable using both in 2/10 builds, and one or the other in three of the remaining eight. Darrel Williams may be the better Chiefs back to own assuming a Bucs win, since he’s the more prolific pass catcher of the two Chiefs backs (excluding Le’Veon Bell – who is expected to be available in an admittedly uncertain role).

Considering how bad the Chiefs run defense is, there’s even a chance that I play both Leonard Fournette and Jones in the one or two contrarian builds (out of ten) that DON’T feature Tom Brady – whose last Super Bowl performance (2018 season) was an unmitigated bust: 262-0-1 in a 13-3 win against a stalwart Rams defense. But this Chiefs defense is not the same animal as that Rams unit – and I’m fairly certain the Chiefs would prefer a 60+ point game total to a defensive battle.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, will have the most trouble stopping Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – both of whom offer mismatches for contrasting reasons – Kelce for his size and ability to manhandle smaller defenders in the middle of the field and in the red zone, and Hill for his blazing speed and the separation he gets in the open field. Both should be chalky, but paired with the right QB (it’s going to be very difficult to fit both Brady and Patrick Mahomes), either of these players has a good chance to post 25+ fantasy points.

Having the Bucs DST in a stack with Jones is probably the best contrarian RB/DST route we can go, and it leaves plenty of salary for working in Mahomes/Kelce or Mahomes/Hill.

There’s also some merit to playing the Bucs TEs (one or both of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate) in a stack with Brady – and it’s actually one of the ways to get both QBs in your lineup. This is assuming Mahomes does enough running and throwing himself to warrant consideration in a shootout at that obscene price tag. Gronk should be ready for a bigger workload in the biggest game he’s played since SB LIII, and Brate has five or more targets in three straight games. About one-quarter of the receiving yardage against the Chiefs came via the TE position this season, and Brate and Gronk’s usage in Week 12 against the Chiefs (Gronk ran 27 routes and caught 7-106-0 on eight targets; Brate saw six targets on 20 routes) fits that narrative. If Brady’s passing numbers soar, it’s very possible that him with WR/TE/TE could be the winning stack.

We’re not ignoring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and we’re certainly looking the way of Scotty Miller for his price – but unless we hear that Antonio Brown is 100 percent and prepping for a big role, I’m comfortable leaving him out of the equation this week. If he’s active, he’ll garner some minimal ownership, but he’s yet to make a huge impact on this Bucs team except as a distraction, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Evans and Godwin are way too expensive to play together along with Brady and the requisite Chiefs players.

Let’s talk briefly about defense/special teams. The pairings that work best for using a DST assume a defensive or special teams TD, so using one of the Bucs RBs with Jaydon Mickens (just $200 at FLEX on DK) and the Bucs DST could work. Conversely, the Chiefs DST could be paired with Mecole Hardman, who is $5,600 but offers some upside in the regular offense on end-arounds or quick-hitting catch-and-run plays that find him in space and galloping for greatness.

Let’s summarize and look at some Captain/MVP possibilities:

Super Bowl NFL DFS Captain/MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (DK $11,700, FD $12,500)

FD/DK Value: Ronald Jones II (DK $2,200 FLEX, FD $8,000), Darrel Williams (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $9,000). Scotty Miller (DK $3,400 FLEX, FD $6,500)

With these prices and scenarios in mind, let’s look at some of the possibilities on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – DraftKings

The 1.5x bonus is nice, but you’ve got to pay the piper for it. We’ve discussed Brady as the best possible captain choice and how you can make it work with Scotty Miller and TEs, but if you roll that way in a smattering of your MME builds you really have to alternate some Chiefs (CEH/Hill or CEH/Kelce).

This is also the only site we can utilize some of the DST touchdown stacks (with the kick returners), so bear that in mind.

It’s also the site where we can roll the dice on RoJo or play around with the idea of using the salary-saving Scotty Miller as captain. And since we have to fill six spots, kickers are a little more in play than they are on FD – where there are just five slots.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – FanDuel

While things are a little more straightforward on FD (higher minimum price, no defenses and flat cost for all positions) you have to get a little more creative to build a unique lineup. This makes single-entry tournaments even more attractive and means you can more comfortably roster a big-impact, large-volume skill position players who’s not a QB (I’m looking at all four RBs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you’re looking for a narrow player pool).

That said, I still prefer Tom Brady in the captain spot on FD. He’s got a lot of productive pass-catching weapons, he likes to spread it around, and he’s going to rack up points in about eight of the 10 narratives we’ve discussed.

I probably won’t be using kickers in my FD builds.

A couple more things:

Pay attention to new WinDaily handicapper Mike North’s betting preview and any updates he makes.
Check out Mike and Sia’s podcast breakdown.

Lastly — keep an eye out for injury updates and breaking news right up to lock for NFL DFS. A lot can happen the night before a Super Bowl, even during the time of COVID.

10:30 a.m. injury/news update

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) had been trending in the right direction and will suit up for Super Bowl LV. While his usage in the big game is a huge question mark, he probably won’t receive his normal complement of snaps and routes. Just because he’s active doesn’t mean he should be a staple of your builds, and he’s certainly not cash-viable. Chiefs C Daniel Kilgore (COVID-19 precautions) was also cleared for the Super Bowl after testing negative all week as a high-risk close contact — but that’s just context. Explosive but underutilized WR Demarcus Robinson has also been removed from the team’s COVID list and will be available.

Antonio Brown (knee) and Cameron Brate (back) are also active, which means the Bucs will be at full strength offensively despite Brown’s previous inactivity and Brate’s back injury he sustained in practice this week. I’m still hesitant to play Brown, and Brate’s DFS upside depends largely on snap count and red zone usage.

3 years ago 0 comment

Collector’s Corner: NFL Playoffs – NFC Trading Cards

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Now into the divisional round of the NFL Playoffs, we’ll look at what trading cards could see a value bump. We’ll conclude with the NFC.

Note: I’ll use my DFS-derived Cash-GPP-Punt terminology to break down the best buys – “Cash” being solid, low-risk with a high ceiling but moderate growth potential, “GPP” being a little more risky but marked by enormous growth potential, and “Punts” – which can be had cheaply but don’t offer quite the same upside/growth potential as the Cash and GPP plays.

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

Cash – For some reason, Aaron Rodgers trading cards don’t get a lot of hype, but they’re highly coveted. It may be because they came around long before the existence of Panini’s Prizm flagship, but also because he spent a few years waiting in the wings behind Brett Favre before he forged his own inevitable path to Canton. His 2005 Topps RC is reasonably priced, but there’s a really sweet – and relatively rare – 2005 Bowman Chrome Auto rookie up for auction on eBay that could sell for more than $2K when it’s all said and done. A PSA 10 (also numbered to 199) sold on Dec. 21 for $5K. I think we could see that particular card (in a graded PSA 10) jump up to $10K if he wins another Super Bowl – and especially if he beats Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs in the big game.

GPP – Davante Adams trading cards are primed for a huge jump, as you can still pick up a raw 2014 Prizm Silver Refractor #281 for about $100 or so. One card that I really like is his 2014 Topps Chrome 1985 throwback design – which is very affordable and looks awesome.

What a cool-looking card — and not too expensive!

Punt – While Aaron Jones is a solid talent, he may price himself out of Green Bay soon, and we could see A.J. Dillon get a shot as the lead back. Dillon’s trading cards are still very affordable now and there’s lots of cool parallels. I pulled a gorgeous 2020 Mosaic Silver Prizm out of a hobby box that would be worth grading were it not for a minor edge issue on the card’s right side.

If you look closely, you can see some minor edge issues that could prevent this card from grading a Gem Mint 10.

New Orleans Saints

Cash – Drew Brees has a nice array of rookies to choose from, some of which command huge prices. The main issue keeping his trading cards from increasing in the next few months is that he’s obviously in a Chargers uniform in all of them. They’re still great buys because when he retires and is inducted into the HOF a few years down the road, they’ll see a huge bump.

GPP – Alvin Kamara rookie trading cards are worth way more than Michael Thomas, and the 2020 season has extended that gap even more. But if the Saints are going to win a title this season, he’s going to be a big part of it. You can buy his 2017 Panini Silver Prizm #291 in a Gem Mint PSA 10 for about $400, and even a 2017 Donruss Rated Rookie #349 PSA 9 is a great buy at just $50.

The 2017 Donruss set is filled with big rookies, including Kamara, Mahomes and Christian McCaffrey, to name a few.

Punt – Taysom Hill and Jameis Winston trading cards are dirt cheap, and while they’re both in different uniforms in their rookie cards, one of them is going to inherit an offense that could help skyrocket their value. Jump aboard while they’re affordable.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Cash – Tom Brady remains the GOAT, and his rookie cards are crazy expensive. Some sellers on eBay post his cards for hilariously unrealistic prices for that site, so I’d advise against shelling out six or seven figures on that site. Still – high-grade examples of his top rookie cards regularly sell for $40-50K right on eBay, so it’s anybody’s guess what the market holds in the coming months. I’m not sure how much higher they’ll go, but if he wins a title with the Bucs, even his 2020 cards should go up.

Is this Brady rookie card worth $250K in a PSA 10? There are only seven graded that high on the PSA registry.

GPP – Ronald Jones had a solid 2020 season, and Gronk cards may have reached their peak, but Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still could see a bump.

Punt – I’ve got my eyes on Ke’Shawn Vaughn and Tyler Johnson, but there’s plenty of barriers to their immediate success at those skill positions in Tampa.

Los Angeles Rams

Cash – I’d say the safest bet is probably Cooper Kupp, because we know how crazy Jared Goff’s career has been thus far. I have a few Goff cards but no rookies, and that might be a good segue into the GPP section, because that’s where he probably belongs.

GPP – Cam Akers is really talented and has a bright future ahead of him in Los Angeles. I’m buying him up and enjoying how cheap his cards were before he was a regular part of the offense. It’s worth following a couple auctions to see where his cards go in the next couple of weeks.

Punt – Van Jefferson might get his shot as soon as one of the top two Rams WRs (Kupp and Robert Woods) moves on, and there’s plenty to like at his current price point.

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Cash – Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf

GPP – Antonio Gibson, Logan Thomas, Chase Young, Terry McLaurin, David Montgomery, Allen Robinson

Punt – Antonio Gandy-Golden, Cole Kmet, Anthony Gordon, Deejay Dallas

3 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 11 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Rams at Bucs

jason mezrahi 3 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones II (DK $13,200, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Jared Goff (DK $14,700, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (DK $12,300, FD $12,500)

DK Punts: Leonard Fournette ($6,600) or Tyler Higbee ($7,200)

DK Contrarian Punt: Rams DST ($4,500)

While there are viable showdown builds that feature Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Tom Brady will be the chalk at captain on Monday night, largely because he spreads the ball around quite a bit. Evans was targeted a season-high 11 times last week, while Godwin has yet to receive fewer than six targets in any game he’s suited up for this season. Embattled egomaniac and HOA member Antonio Brown was targeted eight times last week in his second game with the team, so he’s another WR who could make an impact.

The Rams DST could be the best contrarian punt option to directly challenge the “Tom Brady smashes in typical fashion” narrative, since we’ve seen a disruptive Aaron Donald and this unit post double-digit DK point totals in four of the last six games.

Jared Goff is certainly an option as well, but the three-headed Rams rushing attack presents a difficult situation to parse for fantasy purposes. Goal line work that typically goes to a healthy Darrell Henderson, Jr. was handled by Malcolm Brown (two rushing TDs on six carries) in Week 10, and Cam Akers finally saw some work between the 20s with 10 carries and a modest 38 rushing yards. The Bucs stingy run defense also complicates the deployment of Rams RBs – but it also helps to reduce their ownership, so picking the right one (just like picking the right Bucs pass-catcher) could be the key to smashing the slate.

On the Bucs side, we’ve got two explosive RBs, with Ronald Jones II the clear RB1 and Leonard Fournette acting as a change-of-pace runner and an elevated role in passing down work. It doesn’t matter which back you use – you could even use both – but whatever back you choose should reflect the obvious correlation plays for both teams.

As for the other Rams position players, I usually lean more heavily toward Robert Woods for his possession attributes and larger snap share, but Cooper Kupp and his elevated price could make him the preferred option in GPPs this week. I’m also interested in Tyler Higbee, as frequently targeting the Rams TE it could be a way for Goff to neutralize the pass rush.

And speaking of TEs, the Bucs have two good ones in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, both of whom receive red zone targets and make for more affordable options.

It’s a week where an expertly constructed single-entry lineup could see tons of success, but multiple entries are the way to go if you’re hell-bent on coming close to finding the golden ratio of showdown perfection and taking down a huge GPP.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to get a little different with your builds. Tom Brady will be massive chalk on FD, and last night’s winning lineup didn’t have Patrick Mahomes (90% owned) or Tyreek Hill (21.5 FD points), even though both had solid games.

DO: Follow a narrative that makes sense. If you’re committed to a rare Brady bust, feel free to get the Rams DST in there.

DON’T: Forget about Bucs kicker Ryan Succop – who’s had double digit totals in four of his last six games.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

Tom Brady
Ronald Jones II
Jared Goff
Robert Woods
Chris Godwin
Cooper Kupp
Mike Evans
Antonio Brown
Leonard Fournette
Darrell Henderson, Jr.
Josh Reynolds
Rob Gronkowski
Tyler Higbee
Malcolm Brown
Ryan Succop
Bucs DST
Cameron Brate
Rams DST
Gerald Everett
Cam Akers
Matt Gay

3 years ago 0 comment

NFL Daily Fantasy Sports

Week 8 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Giants

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 8 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)

Once again, the chalk – and likely a very heavy chalk – will be Tom Brady, who seems to be making a fine second home for himself among the myriad weapons in Tampa Bay. As much as the philosophies of HCs Bill Belichick and Bruce Arians may differ, he’s finding success with a few of the same ingredients: a fluid but talented group of receivers and backs, a defense that’s providing him with excellent opportunities and the luxury of patience, and an emphasis on protecting the ball and taking what the opposing team gives you. The best way to tackle this showdown may be to find our differentiation in the flex spots rather than get crazy contrarian at captain.

One of the weapons available to Brady this season will be Antonio Brown, but he’s not eligible to play until Week 9. With Chris Godwin (broken finger) out this week, we’re left with the uber-talented Mike Evans, TE Rob Gronkowski and Scotty Miller (hip, groin) as Brady’s main receiving weapons.

But just like in Week 5, my favorite pivot is probably Ronald Jones – who’s a much less risky play these days given how integral he is to the early down running game. In a matchup against the Giants that may get out of hand quickly, he’s the best bet to salt away the game with chunky gains and pile up the yardage.

If the Giants can keep things close, we could see some impactful plays from Leonard Fournette, who Arians recently labeled his “nickel” running back after he led the Bucs backfield with 40 snaps in Week 7 against the Raiders. We could certainly consider using Fournette as a pivot from Jones – or even alongside RJ2 in a few large-field GPPs.

For the Gaints, I’m narrowing my focus to Daniel Jones, WRs Darius Slayton and Sterling Shepard, TE Evan Engram and a smattering of RBs Wayne Gallman and Dion Lewis. Given the effectiveness of the Bucs defense this season (and the viability of the Bucs DST as an option on DraftKings this week) I can’t imagine playing more than two Giants in many of these contests,

Golden Tate isn’t getting enough targets for him to be an essential part of my builds, but he’s certainly an option if you’re making hundreds of lineups.

Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Play four Giants and just two Bucs. The spread here heavily favors the Bucs and they should be doing most of the scoring tonight.

DO: Consider Leonard Fournette – who’s been seeing more action and has supplanted LeSean McCoy as the go-to passing game RB – and fringe options like rookie WR Tyler Johnson and TE Cameron Brate, even with Gronk on a tear lately.

DON’T: Get too cute and make many lineups without Tom Brady. You don’t have to use him up top, but i’’s hard to imagine a scenario where Brady doesn’t get 20+ fantasy points in this smash spot.

Tom Brady
Ronald Jones
Mike Evans
Daniel Jones
Darius Slayton
Rob Gronkowski
Scotty Miller
Evan Engram
Leonard Fournette
Sterling Shepard
Tyler Johnson
Wayne Gallman
Bucs DST
Justin Watson
Cameron Brate
Dion Lewis
Ryan Succop
Golden Tate
Graham Gano
Giants DST

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL

Week 5 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown Preview: Bucs at Bears

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Let’s get to the game!

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $11,100, FD

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $15,000, FD $14,000) $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Allen Robinson (DK $15,900, FD $11,500)

The chalk – and what should probably be HEAVY chalk – is Tom Brady, in part because he’s Tom Brady and he’s the GOAT, and also because the Bucs are lacking their top WR in Chris Godwin (out), Mike Evans is questionable and Scotty Miller is on the probable side of questionable, the plan being Evans will test his ankle in pre-game workouts to determine if he plays.

If he spreads it around and the Bucs attack what has been a relatively solid pass Bears defense through the air, he’ll still accrue enough points to justify having him as CPT. I think he makes more sense from a GPP perspective as a flex, but in cash games we can almost guarantee he’ll find his way to the top in most of the builds.

My favorite pivot might just be Ronald Jones – though we know he’s a risky GPP play given his history of highly dynamic fantasy scoring. The Bucs will most certainly give him touches, and they’ve been more creative with their offense since Brady came aboard. I’m less interested in targeting one particular Bucs WR given the injuries, but they’re certainly all viable flex plays.

Nick Foles is certainly a risk as well but could be the contrarian play that breaks the slate. Unlike Brady’s he’s got a stable of talented, capable and healthy pass catchers in WR Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and TE Jimmy Graham, and the Bears have been using David Montgomery is little bit in the passing game. If there’s a piece of the Bucs defense I don’t trust, it’s the secondary, but their front seven is one of the best in football.

As usual, we could see kickers come into play if drives are stymied as they get into the red zone tonight, but there’s no need to use them in the top spot. Fitting the main stars isn’t all that difficult given the softer pricing for this showdown.

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to take a bunch of Bears against this tough Bucs defense. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll have builds that toss in the occasional Bucs DST as a flex, but the trio of Foles/Graham/Robinson has as much upside as Brady/Gronk/Evans given the injuries plaguing the Bucs.

DO: Consider Mike Evans if he’s active. Even at 80% he’s an excellent red zone target that Brady loves.

DON’T: Be afraid to leave money on the table. Low-cost options like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and even Montgomery have high-enough upside that they could have a bigger impact the higher salary guys you could squeeze in in certain builds.

Tom Brady
Ronald Jones
Nick Foles
Allen Robinson
Mike Evans (if active)
Jimmy Graham
Scotty Miller
Anthony Miller
David Montgomery
Cameron Brate
Ryan Succop
Bucs DST
Rob Gronkowski
Cairo Santos
K’Shawn Vaughn
Cordarrelle Patterson
Darnell Mooney (questionable)
Ted Ginn, Jr.
Bears DST
Javon Wims

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation

On this Win Daily Show, we have @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation for the upcoming Fantasy Football Season.

Nick Bretwisch joins Michael Rasile to discuss the 2020 Fantasy Football Quarterback outlook. Through the lens of strength of schedule, past performances, and future projections, they breakdown the top 36 QBs that could potentially be drafted in your Fantasy Football draft.

In this show, we are discussing where we are targeting some of our favorite QBs, how late we are willing to go before drafting a QB, what 2QB league drafts might look like, and more.

Through the discuss Nick and Michael also look at what other options may be available on the board, especially in the beginning of your draft when Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes are expected to be taken.

They dive deep into the QB class and talk about who some sleepers to the year can be, who is underrated, and who they are not interested in touching. Finding the right QB for your team can be hard, but with @StixPicks by your side, winning your Fantasy Football Championship will be much, much easier.

Listen to the episode below and don’t forget to subscribe, rate, and review!

You can also listen to the 2020 QB Evaluation episode on these platforms below.
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

Make sure to follow Nick and Michael!
https://twitter.com/StixPicks
https://twitter.com/Michaelrasile1

Make sure to follow Win Daily, too!
https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
https://twitter.com/windailysports
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https://windailysports.com/blog/

Hop on our Free Expert Discord Chat!
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4 years ago 0 comment

PGA

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

stephenbrown764@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by stephenbrown764@gmail.com

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

The Match: Champions for Charity Event will be played between Tiger Woods and Peyton Manning against Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady tees off at 2pm EST on May 24th live on TNT.

Tiger/Phil Brady/Manning – Sia’s picks and plays for the event this weekend

The Match will be a match-play event, meaning each hole will be an independent contest. The format will be four-ball on the front nine (each player will play his own ball, and the best ball wins the hole) and Brady and Manning will get three handicap strokes on the nine. The back nine will be a Modified Alternate Shot format (everyone will tee off and the players will alternate playing the ball they choose).

This will be a fun EVENT for charity and give us ENTERTAINMENT much like the match Phil and Tiger played last November. If you’re looking to throw a few dollars on “The Match” I have you covered. Keep in mind that this is ultimately a charity event, so it may not be the spot to throw down the mortgage, but as you will see below, I think I’ve found a couple of angles worth taking.

Shop for the best line! After checking a couple of our favorite books, I saw some disparity between what you can get in terms of odds. So if there is a side you’re leaning to heavily, make sure to get the line you want!

I like Tiger and Peyton in this event. Tiger is better than Phil and Peyton is better than Tom Brady by approximately two strokes. Brady has also been in the midst of moving teams and cities, while Peyton has been presumably taking it easy, which likely includes several golf outings.

Tiger/Peyton v. Phil/Tom
-186 v. +160
-200 v +160
-220 v. +175

Most birdies – Tiger v. Phil (Tiger -145)
If you’re looking for a fun sweat that will last the entire match, this might be the bet for you. Phil is no stranger to going for the birdie, but I suspect Tiger will be locked in for most of the match as he is technically coming off a loss to Phil last November.

Woods and Manning to Win Hole #10 (-135)
Woods and Manning to Win Hole #11 (-135)

If you’re putting down a few bucks check out some of the lines over at DraftKings and FanDuel.

The front nine is likely to be the more playful nine. Once the golfers make the turn, it will truly be a team effort with the modified alternate shot format, and this is where you are likely to see the better golfers prevail. I wouldn’t be shocked if Tiger and Manning are trailing going into the back nine and then start to turn on the intensity. I like them to lock in for the first true team holes.

BallStreet Trading

Our friends over at BallStreet will be running a real-time market for “The Match.”

There will be both a free contest and a paid entry (no rake) contest for players to join. We recommend entering both as you have twice the opportunity to win a fairly nice cash prize considering it’s free and a low entry format.

Free contest prizes will be $20 to everyone in the top 10 with $2 prizes given out to the rest of the top 20%.

Paid entry will be $10 (no rake) with a $100 prize given to everyone in the top 10%.

Markets have been created for each team and trade based on the win probability as decided by the market. Remember there are no outside APIs, data or models creating the pricing. Only the other players in the market.

BallStreet has IPO’d the match in line with current implied odds of around 2:1 in favor of Woods and Manning. Markets opened with Woods and Manning at §65 and Mickelson and Brady §35.

The biggest factor will be how well Manning and Brady are on the day. Manning has a listed handicap of 6.4 while Brady is listed at 8.1. Couple this with the different aspects to the match (5th hole teams must only just a single club) and we have the chance for almost anything to happen.

The early trading seems to be buying up Mickelson and Brady looking for value but after tee off Sunday the real market begins. If you are planning on watching golf this weekend BallStreet could be a great compliment giving you a chance to check out one of the newest and most innovative startups in the space while winning a little money for your trouble.

Make sure to download the BallStreet app and follow along on their social medias all weekend!
Twitter @BallStreetApp
Apple App Store
Google Play
Web App
Desktop

And make sure to pick some over/unders at Monkey Knife Fight!

If you have any questions make sure to hit me up on Twitter @SiaNejad or jump in our FREE Expert Discord Chat. Read more of my articles over at Win Daily Sports!

4 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

Michael Rasile 4 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

On this Win Daily Show Sia (@SiaNejad) and Michael (@michaelrasile1) discuss this weekends Charity Golf “Event” between Tiger, Tom, Phil, and Peyton dubbed “The Match.” Sia gives us some bets for the lead up and the strategies he’s looking to employ during the event. Hint: this is for entertainment make sure you’re not betting too much, shop your lines, and bet live!

Rich Masana (@JFan303) comes on to tell us about the picks and plays he’s liking for this weeks Bundesliga (German Soccer) Matches. He made us money last week, so listen to him.

Sia and Michael finish off the show with some NFL News that may effect betting and fantasy line up next year. How will the new onside kick rule change betting lines? Does Dak sign a deal? Devonta Freeman to the Eagles? Will Josh Gordon be fantasy relevant this coming year?! No, probably not. We also have a few props that Sia likes for which QB starts for the Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots.

Remember to shop your lines -> DraftKings | FanDuel

Check out Rich’s article going over his Bundeliga Picks and Plays -> https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/

Listen to the show below and remember to subscribe, rate, and review.

You can also check out the Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundesliga DFS, NFL Props on these platforms below.
Apple Podcasts
Spotify
Anchor

Hop on our Free Expert Discord Chat -> https://discord.com/invite/QsK3HJs

Make sure to follow Win Daily!
https://www.instagram.com/windaily/
https://twitter.com/windailysports
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCY2I3VNyf_dtW-2xl5vwv0Q
https://www.twitch.tv/windailysports

4 years ago 0 comment

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

ddwessels@att.net 4 years ago

written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

We’re always looking for ways to put money in your pockets here at Win Daily. When there is a betting line that we can take advantage of, we let you know about it too! Here are a few plays we like on DraftKings Sportsbook for the NFL Futures Bets for 2020.

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

There are a few teams I’m looking to take advantage of this year in the NFL one of them is my beloved Giants… Make sure to give me a follow on Twitter @michaelrasile1 and hop into our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Team Win Totals

Giants – o/u 6.5 on DraftKings- UNDER
The Giants had 4 wins last year, 2 against the Redskins, and they got better. Defense is still terrible but the offensive line did get better through the draft. I can maybe see 1 win in their first 5 games: Home against the Steelers (loss), At the Bears (loss), Home against the 49ers (loss), At the Rams (loss), Home against the Cowboys (loss). Maybe maybe maybe one of those goes the Giants way, but probably not. Facing the AFC North and NFC West with each division potentially making the argument that 3 teams from those divisions can make the playoffs. No shot at 7 wins. High on saquon in fantasy, pretty low on Daniel Jones, especially with a deep QB class.

Rams – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Rams went 9-7 last year and easily could have been in the playoffs if Greg the Leg could hit an easy field goal against Seattle. They have almost $65 million tied in dead cap (Gurley, Matthews, Cooks) and a bad QB. Offensive line was the biggest problem last year and they did some to fix it, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it was bad again. Todd was bad, but still had over 1000 yard from scrimmage and 14 touchdowns. AFC East and NFC East are pretty easy. NFC West will be hard this year. 2 extra games are the Bucs and Bears, Tom Brady should be fine, and the Bears defense has given the rams fits the last few years. I think their offense won’t be as it was in 2018 and I think their defense will be middle of the pack.

Bears – o/u 7.5 – OVER
Deshaun Watson came out and said the Bears never even spoke with him. Now they are stuck with a terrible QB and Mitch Trubisky. Nick Foles was beat out by a 6th round rookie last year, so the Bears thought they should trade a 4th round pick for him, take on his contract (restructured) and now they’re in a pickle. With all that said, their schedule is super easy and them starting out 5-1 or 6-1. AFC South, and AFC South. Extra games the Giants and Saints. 1-1 there. Probably take the over, but i’d be worried. I also wouldn’t touch anyone on this offense except Allen Robinson and it won’t be until late in the draft.

Chiefs – o/u 11.5 – UNDER
The Chiefs’ schedule consists of the AFC East, NFC South, with the 2 extra against the Ravens and Texans (both play off teams). Per Warren Sharp, Chiefs are going against a top 10 hardest Pass Efficiency Defense. Chiefs love to throw the ball! But thankfully adding a running back in the draft can make their offense a little less reliant on the pass. Super Bowl hangover for all teams other than the Patriots is real. Currently favorites to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 winners, only 2 teams made it back to the Super Bowl, Pats/Seahawks, 3 teams didn’t make it back to the playoffs. AFC is pretty weak this year, so they make the playoffs, but I don’t think they repeat and I think they land at 11 wins.

49ers – o/u 10.5 – OVER
The 49ers schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC East, and 2 extra games against the Saints and Packers. Top three favorite to win the Super Bowl. Of the last 10 SB losers only one has come back and won it. Roster is still stacked and intact. Added a real receiver in the draft and got Trent Williams from the redskins. NFCE and AFCE are both bad, should be able to hit the over of 10.5. Fantasy will be weird, Deebo might be a fun play in DFS but I don’t see the consistency in season long. Aiyuk is a real receiver in this offense unlike the rest of them. Kittle for sure. Running back by committee, Kyle Shannahan doesn’t care.

Browns – o/u 8 – UNDER
The Browns schedule consists of the NFC East, AFC South, and 2 extra games against the Jets and Raiders. Browns were terrible last year and finished 7-9. Stacked on offense, just needed a real coach and a semblance of an offensive line. Picked up Conklin in the off season for right tackle and Jedrick Wills for left tackle, he played right tackle in college, but Tua is a lefty so he was still blindside. NFC East and AFC South are both bad and their two extra games aren’t too tough either. I think if the offense can pick it up a bit, added Austin Hooper as well I think they do great. Stephanski runs a lot of 2 TE sets so it was a great pick up. Only problem is if they start out bad, how quickly does Odell and Jarvis get angry at Baker and start to ruin the locker room and ask to be traded again? I think there is a shot at the over, but the Browns are still the Browns and in that case I take the under.

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Sia at @SiaNejad on Twitter and hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord!

Week 1 Lines

Chicago at Detroit (-1.5) – A best bet. Detroit at home with weapons on offense. Defense is shaky but that shouldn’t be a problem against Mitch Trubisky. Lions tend to start fast. Last year derailed by Stafford injury but this team isn’t as poor as people think.

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Jacksonville – Is it possible for a team to give up before Week 1? This game is a stay away for me but if I had to bet it I’d take the Minshew magic plus the points. It’s just too many points for a home team in Week 1. Indy probably overvalued at this point.

Green Bay at Minnesota -3.5 – shocking line. Take it at 3 maybe. This line will go down to 3 or maybe 2.5 by kickoff. I’m taking Minnesota with the assumption that I get the line later on at 3 or 3.5. Not in love with the bet but the line tells you all you need to know about how the oddsmakers feel about the Packers (record from last year may be a little fraudulent).

L.A. Chargers (-3.5) at Cincinnati – Chargers probably win but 3.5 is too much. This is a bet against on Tyrod and Anthony Lynn. Chargers can’t help but play close games and Tyrod just isn’t the guy. Bengals have just enough weapons to move the ball and keep it close.

Arizona at San Francisco (-8) – too many points. Home game not a factor here. Kyler has done well against SF. Too many weapons for Arizona. Game will be close enough.

Tampa Bay at New Orleans (-4) – line is all over the place. Anything under 4 and I’m on Saints. Line opened at -6 when schedule came out which was absurd. Let’s see if the line moves. If it stays at -4 I’ll take the dog. It’s a stay away for now.

Dallas (-3) at L.A. Rams – Feels like they’re in a bad spot. Dallas has a ton of weapons on offense. Defense is very shaky but if they can get a pass rush on Goff, they’ll be okay. Not a bet I love and i’d probably wait to see if line goes down to -2.5. Probably won’t since Dallas is a public team.

Team Win Totals

Ravens over (11 with juice to over) – Very easy schedule. Only travel 6k miles on the season (some teams are between 25k-30k of travel miles). 14-2 last year. Loaded and did well in the draft (Patrick Queen, JK Dobbins, plenty of offensive line help, DLineman in the third round and a very underrated WR out of Texas in Duvernay and Proche from SMU). Also got James Daka as an UDFA out of JMU. Edge rusher with 16.5 sacks last year (I went to JMU).

Steelers over (8.5 with juice to over) – Easy schedule (NFC East/AFC South out of division). People falling asleep on them. Great defensive front. They get their QB back. Weapons at WR (Juju, Claypool, DJohnson and James Washington) and TE (Ebron/Vance) and RB with Conner and Macfarland.

Bengals under (6) – Someone has to be the big loser in this division. Looking at their schedule I can find 5 wins but not 6. Certainly not 7 so you’re worst case feels like a push. Small miracle if this team gets anywhere near 7 games.

Giants under (6.5) (AFC North/NFC West) – I know Michael covered them but thought id touch on them too (maybe it’s good to reinforce?). Under is a good bet here. Schedule is tough. Just seems like such a good play felt right to reinforce it.

Broncos over (7.5) (AFC East/NFC South) – Not the easiest schedule but still like it. Won 4 of last 5 games last year. 3 of first 5 on the road but that’s not a bad thing. Pass rush should be good. Improved OLine. Good OC in Pat Shurmur. Loaded at RB (Gordon and Lindsay) and WR (Jeudy, Sutton, KJ Hamler) and talent at TE. I believe in Drew Locke.

Cowboys over (9.5) – Defense has to be decent and then they’ll cruise in a weak division.

Super Bowl Winners

Ravens at 7 to 1 – Best team in the NFL. 14-2 last year. 4th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric. Absolutely loaded up in the draft on offense and defense (Dobbins/Queen/Duvernay/Proche/OL/DL/Daka out of JMU (16.5 sacks last year). Only travel 6,000 miles on the entire season (compare that to most NFC/AFC West teams which can travel 25-30 thousand miles).

Cowboys at 18 to 1 – Competitive NFC but this is a real team which now has a real coach which upgraded in a big way in the draft. Defense is suspect but these are solid odds. I like the Cowboys +110 to win the NFC East as well.

Steelers at 28 to 1 – 7th easiest schedule per Warren Sharp metric (NFC East/AFC South). Steelers got to 8 wins with basically no QB. Juju healthy. BigBen healthy. Stout defense. Upgrades on offense at RB and WR plus solid core of young WRs (Johnson/Washington). Only two legitimate teams in the AFC so there is a chance for Steelers to make some noise.

Division Winners

Bucs +105 versus the Saints +110 [NFC South]
Saints added Emmanuel Sanders and a few pieces on defense in free agency. Solid draft with Baun at LB, Ruiz at Center, Troutman at TE. May take a while for Bucs to get acclimated. And let’s not forget Brady is 100 years old. Bucs offense should still be lethal but not sure they’re fit to take over in the NFC South. I do like what Bucs did in grabbing Wirfs in first round to shore up OLine and like Ke’Shawn Vaughn to be a potential sneaky star at RB.

Packers +170 versus Vikings +165 [NFC North]
Just seems like the Pack may fall apart this year. Won a lot of close games last year and I expect regression there. No help for ARod on offense. Vikings got a headache out of the locker room in Diggs and filled his position in the draft with Jefferson. Vikings addressed every need in first two rounds with a WR, CB, and a Tackle. 15 picks overall and this is suddenly a young team on the rise with a veteran QB and an elite pair of RB’s

Cowboys +100 versus Eagles +140 [NFC East]
Seems like Cowboys have the easier schedule. Eagles a very solid team but Wentz certainly an injury risk and Eagles draft didn’t address needs like the Cowboys did. Cowboys did lost Byron Jones (and Philly gained Slay) but Cowboys drafted 2 CBs with their first 4 picks and now have elite weapons all over the offense. Eagles first two picks with Reagor and Hurts may have very minimal impact in 2020.

Niners +115 versus Seahawks +225 [NFC West]
At some point Russell Wilson is going to have a problem carrying this entire team. Niners get almost everyone back. Buckner gone but they filled his spot with Javon Kinlaw. Got Brendan Aiyuk from ASU. Team is loaded and getting value at +115. Hawks draft seemed full of reaches with Jordyn Brooks and Darrell Taylor with first two picks.

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Make sure to follow Jason on Twitter at @jasonmezrahi and talk to him about his picks in our Free Expert Chat on Discord.

Division Winners

Bucs 12 to 1
Already locked it in at 15 to 1 and I don’t mind it here at 12 to 1. This offense is going to be good to great. Their Run D was good enough. Their secondary was terrible. Licht also made other big moves this offseason, keeping NFL sack leader Shaq Barrett, and bringing back veteran defenders in Jason Pierre-Paul and Ndamukong Suh. He also made sure he landed one of the best offensive tackle prospects in the 2020 NFL Draft, trading up for Iowa’s Tristan Wirfs. Though he has taken his share of grief for his misses in recent years, much of which he admits he deserves, Licht deserves every bit of praise he’s getting for the bold moves he’s made this offseason to make the Bucs a legitimate contender. We’ll see if the on-field results match the hype this fall, but at this point, Licht and the Bucs have been big winners this offseason.

Eagles 17 to 1
Picking up Darius Slay covered a major whole in that philadelphia secondary and if Carson and the wide receiving crew can stay healthy they can cruise thru a weak NFC east and lock up a possible home playoff game. I love what sanders brings to this offense, combined with the two tight end set of Ertz and Goeddert, and hopefully a healthy Alshon, Desean and rookie Reagor this offense can be explosive.

Cardinals 60 to 1
The Cardinals have been busy this offseason. They acquired WR DeAndre Hopkins in a trade that sent RB David Johnson to the Houston Texans. They re-signed RB Kenyan Drake and LT D.J. Humphries. They added DL Jordan Phillips and LBs Devon Kennard and De’Vondre Campbell in free agency. They selected LB Isaiah Simmons (Clemson) in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft and added OL Josh Jones (Houston), DL Leki Fotu (Utah) and DL Rashard Lawrence (LSU) with their next three picks.

Team Win Totals

Overs
Ravens – 11
49ers – 10.5
Broncos – 7.5

Unders
Giants – 6.5
Jets – 6.5
Rams – 8
Bills – 9

I hope you can make some money on our NFL Futures Bets for 2020, I think these are some solid plays for the year. Considering we don’t know what it will look like, it should be fun either way!

Make sure to hop in our Free Expert Chat on Discord to ask us all questions!

4 years ago 0 comment

Newer Posts

Older Posts

Tom Brady

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

Super Bowl NFL DFS Captain/MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (DK $11,700, FD $12,500)

FD/DK Value: Ronald Jones II (DK $2,200 FLEX, FD $8,000), Darrel Williams (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $9,000). Scotty Miller (DK $3,400 FLEX, FD $6,500)

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – DraftKings

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – FanDuel

10:30 a.m. injury/news update

Divisional Advancers

Green Bay Packers

New Orleans Saints

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams

Eliminated: Seattle Seahawks, Washington Football Team, Chicago Bears

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones II (DK $13,200, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Jared Goff (DK $14,700, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (DK $12,300, FD $12,500)

DK Punts: Leonard Fournette ($6,600) or Tyler Higbee ($7,200)

DK Contrarian Punt: Rams DST ($4,500)

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $13,200, FD $13,000)

Contrarian #1: Daniel Jones (DK $13,800, FD $15,000)

Contrarian #2: Darius Slayton (DK $10,500, FD $12,000)

Week 8 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

Week 5 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,800, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones (DK $11,100, FD

Contrarian #1: Nick Foles (DK $15,000, FD $14,000) $10,500)

Contrarian #2: Allen Robinson (DK $15,900, FD $11,500)

Week 5 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Win Daily Show: @StixPicks 2020 QB Evaluation

The Match: Champions for Charity Event

BallStreet Trading

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Michael’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Team Win Totals

Sia’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Week 1 Lines

Team Win Totals

Super Bowl Winners

Division Winners

Jason’s NFL Futures Bets for 2020

Division Winners

Team Win Totals

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