Week 2 in the NFL is all about finding the best opportunities for guaranteed production with high upside. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the NFL DFS Picks of Destiny.
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I want to start off this article by saying you must have the absolute nuts to win the top prize up top on large field GPPs. There is no room for mistakes with so many entries in these contests. If you think you are going to win it all by playing a combo of the top seven guys in the player pool, you are not. If a combo of a bunch of guys you have heard of before is indeed the best scoring lineup, you will most likely tie for first. If that sounds good to you, then go for it. It will be profitable if you nail it, but for me I like to be a little different on these slates. I will be making multiple teams and taking long shots on a few cheap guys.
Leaving cash on the table in these NFL DFS contests is fine too. This makes your lineup even more unique and lower owned because a lot of amateurs will be pulling their hair out to use their entire salary.
That all being said, I have looked at every possible player that can get on the field and listed my picks below.
MVP: Christian McCaffrey ($16,500 FD; $18,600 DK)
No need to get cute tonight. If it was a full 12 game slate, and I could choose from any RB in the league as my NFL DFS MVP, I still might land on McCaffrey. He is a dual threat running back who gets it done on the ground and through the air. The Tampa defense is nothing to fear. McCaffrey got 128 yards and 10 receptions in the first week for 37.9 FanDuel points. Lock in the stud RB and figure the rest out.
This seems pretty easy. I think Godwin will outscore Evans straight up and if you give me +20 yards I will easily lock that in. I also have Cam over Winston straight up so again giving me +20.5 yards seems like an easy bet. Cam likes to show off (especially at home, during primetime) and he will try his best tonight to make a statement that he is still an elite QB. I don’t necessarily think that, but he is better than Winston.
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It’s finally Week 1 of the NFL and I’m looking at what can sometimes be the last two pieces you plug into your NFL DFS lineups – tight ends (TEs) and defenses (DSTs). There’s plenty to discuss, so let’s dive right in!
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Ertz caught the second-most passes of anyplayer last year (116) and saw 156 targets. He’s in a great Week 1matchup and is a consensus top 3 TE in every possible format. There may beample reasons to enumerate the many attributes of some of the remaining TEs in thisrundown, but I shouldn’t cloud your mind with too many competing thoughts in mycash game recommendations. Ertz is top dog this week in cash.
Engram is the best receiver available on the Giants and they are going to inundate him with targets against the Cowboys are just middle-of-the-road when it comes to defending opposing TEs. The third-year TE had a TD in each of his games vs. Dallas in 2018 and offers a little more safety than Travis Kelce and O.J. Howard, with just a tad less upside.
The tough matchup willkeep a chunk of the field away and that’s what we want for a guy with this muchupside – especially in a game with a 51.5 total. I’ll tolerate some risk at myTE spot because there’s a shot to play both – and I’ll have a lot of exposureto a Kelce-Ertz combo on both sites, since they could both score three TDs andmake incredible value just under the price point of stud RBs.
Traditional ownership inGPPs dictates that the better value with the lower risk gets taken, so Kittlemakes perfect sense as a GPP pivot from Ertz, who’s cheaper on both sites.Kittle is a one-man offensive powerhouse who can take over a game with 200 yardsand score 2-3 TDs, so he’s a fine GPP play in Week 1 facing the relatively weakBucs defensive unit.
There’s just a ton of upside to Henry’s 2019 season, and it all starts in Week 1 facing the Colts. He’s blessed with a capable, adventurous QB in Philip Rivers (who has a history of torrid love affairs with his TEs), caught eight TDs as a rookie in 2016 (the fourth-highest mark for a rookie tight end in NFL history) spent a year in an expanded role while out-targeting Antonio Gates, and then missed the entire 2018 regular season with a torn ACL. Low projected ownership and a prime matchup make him a solid GPP play this week.
Andrews emerged as a viable TE option in 2018 and promises to once again be a useful safety valve for Lamar Jackson. There’s not an overwhelming sense of limitless upside with Andrews from a season-long perspective (and I think most folks who drafted him would be happy with Top 10 numbers), but the Dolphins LBs are an inexperienced unit at risk of giving up huge numbers to opposing TEs. Andrews is a cost-effective way to fit in a bunch of solid RBs and WRs, though you’ll be assuming a considerable amount of risk not looking to the obvious top TEs.
Walker makes for an interesting GPP play at just $5,400 on FD, and he qualifies as a punt for his low salary on DK. Walker probably has a little more upside than Andrews but the three-time Pro Bowler makes plenty of sense as a lower-risk option heading into a Week 1 contest that might be a little more lopsided than expected and have the Titans playing from behind. Walker played just one game in 2018 (dislocated ankle) and will look to rebound with a big Week 1, and Jonnu Smith isn’t much of a threat to his targets.
The Ravens lost some defensive starters in LB C.J. Mosley and DL Willie Henry, and there’s been some question as to the effectiveness of their pass rush, but they remain a perennial powerhouse and there’s no easier team to pick on in cash games than the Dolphins. Since Miami is a team in turmoil, Baltimore is the consensus top defense in the weekly rankings and there’s plenty of value to be found throughout the rest of the roster, so it’s no problem looking at the Ravens this week, even as the highest-priced DST on both sites.
There’s plenty of appeal to both the Ravens and this Eagles unit in GPPs, since there’s plenty of opportunity to differentiate our lineups elsewhere. But the goal of cash games is to limit risk and maximize cost – and there’s just not a lot of difference cost-wise between the top and bottom defenses. Philly is still running the Jim Schwartz system of constant pressure and this group is a fine blend of experience and youth. They are deep, they are talented, and they are home in Week 1 to face the paltry Redskins. Don’t overthink it.
There’s a considerable drop after the top couple ranked DSTs this week, so they’ll be my only cash game recommendations, but the Rams are a formidable unit facing a much more potent offense. Whether Carolina’s Cam Newton is 100 percent is the main factor in the Rams making most of my GPP builds, and if I’ll look to some of the following options as a pivot. With that said, the Rams are a consensus Top 12 defense this week and the team’s offensive prowess sometimes forces opponents into silly mistakes (30 takeaways last season). This is where you can capitalize in GPPs. They offer relatively low ownership because of the higher price, but they’re still a few bucks cheaper than the elite DSTs, so they make sense as last-piece fit.
Plenty of question marks surround the newer pieces (ZiggyAnsah and Jadeveon Clowney) in the Seahawks front seven and All-Pro safety EarlThomas is out the door – so DFS players could look at this unit with sometrepidation and steer clear in Week 1. But the Bengals are a team without itsstar WR for the first few games and I know that Scott Engel would beannoyed if I didn’t acknowledge his squad’s upside in this cushy spot and justhow good these linebackers and lineman can be in 2019.
The Browns are a couple years removed from being a laughingstock, and this play might not be all that contrarian with the DST’s cost down. But Cleveland had 31 takeaways last season (17 INTs and 14 FRs) and should be an improved unit in 2019. The Titans aren’t too much of a threat to score 25+ points and a Nick Chubb/Browns DST game script could be a decent starting point in GPP builds.
The Bills and Jets defenses both feel a lot like the sameamount of risk and upside, so this should be a fun Week 1 contest to watch. It’llbe even more fun if you click the Jets into your DFS lineups and they force abunch of turnovers from Josh Allen and the dubious Bills offense. The Jets unitis a risk, because they’re susceptible to the big play, but the flip side is thepositive variance they offer. I’ve seen them as high as second on some Week 1 rankingsand as low as 30th – the definition of a GPP option.
The Chargers are cheap, they get to the opposing QB, andthey have plenty of upside facing a Colts team without Andrew Luck. I’mcomfortable going here in Week 1 for this affordable cost.
The 49ers are loaded with talented defensive lineman but have a weak LB corps, and they don’t stand out as particularly safe facing the Bucs in Tampa Bay. But if you’ve got to make it work with just a few bucks left in salary cap, they make plenty of sense. The biggest area of concern for the 49ers this season is +/ in turnovers, where they ranked last in the league at -25 in 2018. The addition of Nick Bosa, however, promises to change some of that and Week 1 is a fine place to take advantage of the cost savings this improving unit offers.
The Bucs were second-to-last in turnover differential last season and offer a similar risk-reward scenario in Week 1 facing the 49ers. I could see easily see pick-sixes for both teams and a 20-17 final score, which would be an acceptable outcome given the variance at DST and our aim at providing a modicum of upside without overwhelming risk.
Zach Ertz featured image via Jason Peters.
The wait is over. Week One is here and it’s time to start reserving your entries and building your lineups for some NFL DFS GPP action. Personally, I think the edge DFS players once had in DFS cash games is starting to decrease drastically, so I am really excited to continue using the majority of my DFS bankroll towards the NFL DFS GPP space. For those of you who still prefer playing more cash games, be sure to check out my article for your Week One Cash Game Picks.
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If you have any questions and would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.
The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team. A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to the plays!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers – As soon as Bruce Arians was named the head coach in Tampa Bay, I immediately put the Bucs on my radar for Week One NFL DFS. The Bucs are going to play at a fast pace and pass the ball all over the field – which should hopefully lead to a lot of fantasy points against a less-than-stellar San Francisco 49ers’ defensive unit. Please note that I rarely ever use four players from the same team in one lineup – it’s usually best to stick to a max of three players from one team. Here are the guys from Tampa Bay that I’ll be stacking together in my NFL DFS GPP lineup:
San Francisco 49ers – Well, if I think the Tampa Bay offense is going to score at will, I should probably get some players on the 49ers’ side of the ball. The 49ers will also be playing at a high pace, trying to hang around in this shootout matchup against the Bucs (who also happen to have a very weak defense). Using players on both teams in this game is a great example of our “game stacks”. This game is going to be high scoring and you’re going to want exposure to it in your NFL DFS GPP. Players to consider for your stack:
Kansas City Chiefs – The Chiefs have the highest implied total on the Vegas board that is currently sitting around 28 points. We all know how explosive this offense can be so we don’t need to dive into a whole lot here. Kansas City is going to score points and it seems the DFS public is a bit scared of this matchup against what used to be a stout defense in Jacksonville. I’m all for using two to three Chiefs in my lineups (if I can afford their salaries). Key players I’m targeting:
Jacksonville Jaguars – The Chiefs are going to score points in this game and Jacksonville is only a three-point underdog in Vegas. This tells me Vegas is confident that the new Jacksonville offense, under John DeFilippo, can score points in this game as well. I don’t love getting a lot of exposure to the Jaguars due to the fact we really don’t know who’s going to get opportunities in this offense yet. We do need to get some exposure though if we’re going to use Vegas to our advantage and stack the highest total on their board in our NFL DFS GPP.
Minnesota Vikings – I’m targeting the Vikings’ offense for four reasons:
In my NFL DFS GPP lineups that do not key on San Francisco @ Tampa Bay, the Vikings offense will most likely be my main pivot. If you want to roll out some Vikings in your lineup, it’s not a bad idea to use guys like Devonta Freeman, Julio Jones, or Calvin Ridley on the other side in hopes this game shoots-out. Key Minnesota Vikings stack candidates:
Detroit Lions – Yes, you are reading this correctly, I’m on board with stacking up the Detroit Lions offense in a NFL DFS GPP in Week One, against what should be a terrible Arizona defense. They are going to be incredibly low-owned and a great place to pivot or even to add to your main game stack lineup. My only concern is that the Lions play at a very slow pace… so let’s hope Kyler Murray and the Cardinals can score some points. We need Matthew Stafford and company to move the ball up and down the field on offense, not just run the clock out. Key Lions to stack (maybe get shares of David Johnson on the other side to have a mini-game stack):
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Leonard Fournette
RB: Damien Williams
WR: Marquise Goodwin
WR: Marvin Jones Jr.
WR: Chris Godwin
TE: George Kittle
FLEX: David Johnson
DST: Miami Dolphins
Mike Evans featured image via Keith Allison
Did you enjoy the action last night? Does the NFL Preseason DFS Week 3 slate have unable to get enough? The weekend is just getting started. We have 10 games coming up on Friday thru Sunday, making it a busy weekend for DFS preseason on DraftKings and FanDuel. The games include CLE @ TB, BUF @ DET, ARI @ MIN, HOU @ DAL, CHI @ IND, NO @ NYJ, SF @ KC, DEN @ LAR, SEA @ LAC, and PIT @ TEN.
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Head coach Freddie Kitchens indicated on Wednesday that Baker Mayfield, Myles Garrett and the rest of the starters will indeed play in Friday night’s game in Tampa Bay. “We’re going to play our guys some,” Kitchens said after Wednesday’s practice, “and I don’t know how long yet.” Mayfield wants to play at least a half tonight. If indeed Mayfield does see extended playing time, look for Rashard Higgins. He has led the team in targets (10), receptions (9), and receiving yards (132).
Mike Evans will not play in this game. The interesting play for the Bucs in this game is running back Dare Ogunbowale, who leads the team in rushing attempts (23) and is third in the NFL in that category. He has also flashed three-down skillset with three receptions for 54 receiving yards. Ronald Jones is dealing with a knee injury and with Peyton Barber, the presumed starter, not expected to play, you can roll with Ogunbowale. By this point, Tanner Hudson needs to be a lock at tight end. He leads the league in receptions, receiving yards, targets, and total routes run through two weeks of the preseason.
Wide receiver Duke Williams and tight end Tommy Sweeney seems like the best plays for the Bills. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has singled out Williams for ‘taking advantage of opportunity’. Meanwhile, Sweeney leads the team in routes run (32). Dawson Knox is expected to play; however, set limit expectations for Sweeney if he suits up against the Lions after missing time with a hamstring injury. At running back, Devin Singletary is also a viable option as he has seen heavy usage in the passing game. He has a team-best eight targets . Overall, Bills’ starters should see plenty of work. With Lions likely resting players, the Bills’ defense could be a leverage play. The Lions have allowed 140 passing yards to three different quarterbacks over the past two weeks.
Matthew Stafford’s status of playing in Week 3 is still up in the air. If he ends up not playing, adding mobile quarterback Josh Johnson seems like a great play for preseason DFS. Be bullish on Lions’ starters in general for Friday night. The top three receivers on the depth chart are locked in, but the depth behind is the real question mark. I like Brandon Powell, who leads the team in targets and receptions. Interesting tidbit as well here: Bills offensive coordinator Daboll was a former New England offensive assistant when Patricia was with the Patriots. His offense is going to be similar to what the Lions faced the last two weeks against New England and Houston. allowing at least 30 points to both teams. Defensively, however, Patricia said Leslie Frazier’s defense is different than what Detroit’s faced the last two weeks. Running back Zach Zenner should get plenty of work and state his case for a bigger workload once the games count.
Kyler Murray has not played great in the first two preseason games. Reports have shown that the Cardinals will show a little more of their real offense in Week 3, making Murray a very enticing option to play at quarterback. Interestingly enough, the Vikings defense has struggled with mobile quarterbacks. Overall, the Cardinals plan on using Week 3 as more of a real game. Head coach Cliff Kingsbury mentioned that Saturday was a target to switch from install to game planning their opponents. Murray seems like a sharp play, along with rookie KeeSean Johnson who leads the team in targets (9).
Music to my preseason DFS ears: the Vikings trying to ‘showcase’ receiver Laquon Treadwell. “We’re trying to get Treadwell the ball a little bit more in the second half,” Coach Mike Zimmer said after Sunday’s game against the Seahawks via USA TODAY. “Try to showcase him a little bit, I guess. He made some nice plays.” Guaranteed touches are hard to come by, so when the coach blatantly comes out and says it, you need to be listening. Treadwell finished with four catches for 47 yards against the Seahawks, so expect more of the same on Saturday against the Cardinals, especially late in the game. Mike Boone is always an option at running back as the preseason darling he is. He has 181 yards on 26 touches through two weeks.
Receiver Kahale Warring is still in concussion protocol and Will Fuller and Keke Coutee do not look like they will play. Injuries create more opportunities for receiver Vyncint Smith (leads team in routes run), and tight end Jerell Adams. Joe Webb is always an option as well because of his rushing upside and the fact that he is second in the NFL in passing yards (236 yards/game). Focus on the backups here. The Cowboys are also missing multiple starters on their defense because of injuries who will most likely be held out in this contest.
There will be no Amari Cooper in Week 3 of the preseason for Dallas. A receiver to look at instead is Jon’Vea Johnson who leads the team in routes run and total targets in the passing game. He has also been impressing the staff at training camp according to Albert Breer via the MMQB. For running back the Cowboys seem dead-set on showcasing Tony Pollard as much as they can so even in a limited capacity he is worth rostering.
Again it will be more of the same with the Bears holding out their starters in the preseason. Seems smart based on what we have seen from Thursday night. Tight end Ian Bunting has shown great receiving ability (second on the team in receiving yards.) Javon Wims is still the best bet at wide receiver by leading the team in yards/route run (2.14), receptions (7), and second in targets (9). Kerrith Whyte and Ryan Nall will split touches at running back, but Whyte has the most upside with his speed and usage in outside zone runs.
The Colts are going to withhold publicly naming their starting quarterback. Head coach Frank Reich said that you will not see most of the starters in this preseason game. An interesting player that has yet to see the field for injuries is receiver Penny Hart, who finally returned to practice. Running back is also very interesting with Marlon Mack, Johnathan Williams and Jordan Wilkins all most likely out. Aca’Cedric Ware led the team in rushing attempts in Week 2 of the preseason.
Reports state that Drew Brees will play. In past years, the Saints have kept him in for either the entire first quarter or pulled him after a three-and-out series to start the game, so his workload against the Jets is anyone’s guess. The quarterback to target may actually be Taysom Hill. Hill had 191 yards of offense and directed three second-half scoring drives against the Chargers. A receiver to target is Austin Carr who has impressed Brees in training camp entering his third season. “I think Austin’s had a great camp. He continues to get better each day. I’m really developing a lot of confidence in him,” Brees said. That translates into NFL Preseason DFS Week 3 potential.
There will be no Le’Veon Bell in the preseason for the Jets. That creates a massive opportunity for Ty Montgomery to see extended reps with the first-team offense. Montgomery led the team in carries in Week 2.
The 49ers are trying to stay as healthy as possible entering the regular season. The reports are that Jimmy Garoppolo will play the first half, which would be great for preseason DFS. This Chiefs defense is very different than the Broncos unit they faced last week. A perfect receiver to pair with Jimmy G is Deebo Samuel. The 49ers have found interesting ways to get him the ball and he leads the 49ers in yards/route run (2.03) through two weeks. Look for him to finish among the top scorers in NFL Preseason Week 3 DFS
It’s all about Darwin Thompson, who is shooting up the Chiefs depth chart. Another strong showing Saturday night could solidify Darwin Thompson as the Chiefs No. 2 back behind Damien Williams. Cody Thompson is also a great look at wide receiver. He leads the team in targets (12), yards/route run (2.38), and receiving yards (88).
Though it is Week 3 for most, this is the Broncos fourth preseason game. Head Coach Vic Fangio told the media that most of the starters will not play at all in the upcoming preseason game against the Rams on Saturday night. Coach Vic Fangio said Kevin Hogan will get the majority of the reps at quarterback. For receivers, the play should be Juwann Winfree with Hogan. All of the lower-ranked receivers have seen similar target distribution, but Winfree has the most gain by putting up stats on Saturday.
It’s more of the same with the Rams, who do not play any of their starters in the preseason. Darrell Henderson has to lead the team in carries, but he is an upside play with his explosive run-style. There is not much outside of that with the Rams for preseason DFS.
Pete Carroll has come to the defense of Rashaad Penny, so don’t be surprised if they dial something up for him in Week 3. Penny has just 13 yards on 12 carries this preseason, so it would be nice to see some burst from him. At receiver, Jazz Ferguson is slightly ahead of John Ursua and the box score shows that. He has twice as many targets (10) despite running fewer routes (23 vs 29). His ceiling is much higher than Ursua’s.
Anthony Lynn said Philip Rivers did not ask for playing time in the third preseason game against the Seahawks, so the plan remains to keep the Chargers’ starting quarterback out of the game. Most of the starters are expected to miss this preseason game. No player has really stood out from the depth in the first two preseason games, so the Chargers are definitely a team to fade in preseason DFS.
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Ben Roethlisberger wants to get work in for as many receivers as possible Sunday. This is not good for preseason DFS as we are looking for consolidated targets for receivers. Diontae Johnson looks to be the lowest on the depth chart with the most upside that should be targeted. James Washington has essentially been Mr. Preseason leading the team in targets, yards, and routes run. Reports have surfaced that Benny Snell is a longshot to contribute in 2019, so per usual, the Steelers should just run him into the wall for the remainder of the preseason. His 20 rushing attempts are 11 more than then next closest on the roster.
A handful of injuries for the Titans, with running backs Dalyn Dawkins and David Fluellen along with tight end Ryan Hewitt being banged up. It could mean another showing for Jeremy McNichols at running back for the Titans or Alex Barnes. Stay up to date with inactives at running back for Sunday’s game. But with the hype as the McWeapon, he might need to be a lock come gameday. Dont be surprised to see McNichols among the league leaders in NFL Preseason DFS Week 3.
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