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Super Bowl Player Props

Jason Mezrahi
written by Jason Mezrahi

Super Bowl Player Props

It’s Super Bowl Sunday and it’s the last NFL game until September, so let’s have some fun with it. We got the Kansas City Chiefs coming in as underdogs facing off against the Philadelpia Eagles. We have Super Bowl Player Props that we are very confident in due to game script, recent performances, and our proprietary projection model. For the novelty props that pay out over +500 odds will be lowering our wager amounts to .1-.5 units. All -105 to -130 odds will be full 1 unit bets. Put a few bucks on these guys to have an extra in-game sweat outside of the spread, total, and who will eventually win. Make sure to watch our NFL DraftCast Show which Jason, Joel, and Dave discussed their favorite props along with their favorite showdown plays for DraftKings. We will be discussing all of our favorite fantasy plays and props leading up to the Super Bowl on our SiriusXM Show this Saturday night from 5-7pm eastern and Sunday from 7-9am eastern and of course 24/7/365 in our Win Daily Expert Discord Chat!

BetBookOdds
First Play of the Game is a RushDraftKings-120
Devonta Smith over 61.5 Receiving YardsDraftKings-120
Jalen Hurts under 10.5 Yards on first completionDraftKings-120
Patrick Mahomes under 10.5 Yards on first completionDraftKings-120
Total points scored over the longest FGDraftKings-130
Both Teams to complete their 1st pass attempt NODraftKings-105
Tied at Half Eagles WinPointsBet+2000
Tied at Half Chiefs WinPointsBet+2000
Devonta Smith to have 25+ receiving yards in each halfFanDuel+160
Boston Scott over 7.5 rushing yardsPrize Picksn/a
Jerick McKinnon under 21.5 rushing yardsPrize Picksn/a
AJ Brown over 5 receptionsPrize Picksn/a
Jalen Hurts first pass will be incompleteCaesars+175
Any Player to have 100+ rush yardsFanDuel-110
Miles Sanders 25+ rush yards in each halfFanDuel+200
Isaiah Pacheco 25+ rush yards in each halfFanDuel+260
Miles Sanders 50+ rush yards in each halfFanDuel+1900
Devonta Smith 40+ receiving yards in each halfDraftKings+1000
Jalen Hurts 30+ rushing yards in each halfDraftKings+650
Kansas City Chiefs over 10.5 points in the first halfDraftKings-110
Philadephia Eagles over 12.5 points in the first halfDraftKings-110
Juju Smith-Schuster over 35.5 receiving yardsDraftKings-110
Boston Scott over 5.5 rushing yardsPointsBet-135

Make sure to follow us at @WinDailySports on Twitter and to hop into our Expert Chat if you have some questions about more props and what to ask our pros!

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Daily Fantasy SportsNFLPremium

Week 12 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Giants at Bucs

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 12 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first showdown article of 2021.Let’s get to the game!Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candi...

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Daily Fantasy SportsNFLPremium

Week 6 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Bucs at Eagles

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season continues with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 6 NFL DFS contests!NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see the Week 1 TNF showdown article.Let’s get to the game!Week 6 NFL DFS MVP candida...

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NFLDaily Fantasy Sports

Week 1 NFL DFS Thursday Night Showdown: Cowboys at Bucs

Antonio D'Arcangelis
written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

The NFL DFS season begins with the Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 1 NFL DFS contests!

A Refresher on Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel calls them “Single-Game Contests,” but the gist is that we need to break down a single game and be aware of the narratives, opportunities and game theory techniques to help drive our success.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will give you leverage.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 1 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (FD $16,000, DK $16,800)

Pivot: Dak Prescott (FD $15,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #1: Mike Evans (FD $13,000, DK $13,800)

Contrarian #2: CeeDee Lamb (FD $10,000, DK $12,300)

Contrarian #3: Ronald Jones (FD $9,500, DK $7,500)

I’m leaning toward using the chalky Tom Brady as my MVP on FanDuel based on the lack of salary multiplier and his propensity to both spread it around and not really stop running up the score. I may find a different route on DraftKings.

Tampa Bay notes: Getting some combination of Brady, Evans and Jones is probably the safest way to approach this offense. If you’re going to play the Bucs DST, and that’s not a terrible strategy for a few GPPs then it’s probably important you use one or more Bucs RBs. Jones is technically the lead back, but Leonard Fournette is still an explosive player with sneaky value if Jones isn’t getting it done. Chris Godwin was nursing a hamstring injury, and he’s actually been left off the final injury report after being limited Tuesday, but I’m most interested in the matchup nightmare that Evans presents for the Cowboys. Aside from Brady, he has the biggest upside. If Godwin sits, we can consider Antonio Brown, who’s listed as questionable but has been trending up in recent weeks as someone finally gelling with the Bucs system and Brady.

Dallas notes: With the absence of OL Zack Martin due to COVID and the Buccaneers solid rush defense, I’m a little less interested in Ezekiel Elliott. I’ll prioritize Prescott/Lamb and either Michael Gallup (with Bucs safety Jordan Whitehead on the shelf for Week 1), but Amari Cooper remains in play for GPPs. Blake Jarwin offers some value at $5,200 on DK, but he’s more of a GPP play as well given how well the Bucs LBS defend that territory and the red zone, where he gets most of his looks.

Week 1 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Get cute with the sub $1K players in this one. Both offenses should be approaching full strength and unless we get breaking news close to lock, there’s not much in that range we can use.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Use both kickers and defenses. There are some showdowns where using that strategy can help find the magic mix, but this Thursday night isn’t that night.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Dak Prescott
  3. Mike Evans
  4. CeeDee Lamb
  5. Ronald Jones
  6. Chris Godwin
  7. Michael Gallup
  8. Ezekiel Elliott
  9. Amari Cooper
  10.  Bucs DST
  11.  Antonio Brown
  12.  Leonard Fournette
  13.  Rob Gronkowski
  14.  Blake Jarwin
  15.  Giovani Bernard
  16.  Tony Pollard
  17.  O.J. Howard
  18.  Ryan Succop
  19.  Greg Zuerlein
  20.  Cowboys DST
  21.  Cameron Brate

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

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NFL

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Uriah Wesson
written by Uriah Wesson

Are you ready? We told you that we had some great things in the works at Win Daily Sports and now that the dust has settled on the NFL draft, we can take a long hard look at all 32 NFL teams so that we can go into the fantasy draft season and week one DFS and destroy the competition right out of the gate. We are going to cover every possible angle so that nothing surprises you. So, without further ado here is the 4th of 32. Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2020 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Bruce Arians

Offensive Coordinator: Byron Leftwich

Defensive Coordinator: Todd Bowles

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Overview:

I am going to be honest, I do not enjoy having to parse through the Bucs offense in any way shape or form. The 2020 Super Bowl Champions just have a wealth of talent to choose from and Tom Brady is the single best QB of all time when it comes to finding the open target wherever it may be. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, Cameron Brate, Rob Gronkowski, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Giovani Bernard. Do you see why this is a nightmare from a fantasy perspective?

Defensively the Buccaneers have been a consistent top three against the run and pass for several years now with Todd Bowles at the helm and there is nothing to indicate that is going to change. Up front they have, Ndamukong Suh, Vea Vita, an Will Gholston, Jason Pierre Paul, Shaq Barrett, and Devin White at linebacker, and Jamel Dean, Antione Winfield, and Jordan Whitehead in the secondary. If you guys spot a gap in their defense please tell me, I could use the help.

Scheme

Offense: Tom Brady and 80 other guys

Defense: 3-4 Base, Multiple Fronts, Multiple Cover Zero and Cover One Blitz Packages

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Fantasy Targets:

Mike Evans: ADP 41.25

In order to be better at drafting your fantasy teams it is key to recognize your biases and I have a clear bias against Evans. Every year I target him he has underperformed against his ADP and every year I stay clear he does not. This may be the first year that bias will not play a roll for me. I just happen to be telling folks to let the Bucs be someone elses headache. In 2020 he had 70 catches for 1,006 yards and 13 touchdowns, but over half of those yards (517 of them) and 31 of those 70 grabs came in only four games. That inconsistency will only be worse with Antonio Brown fully involved in the offense and Chris Godwin not dealing with a finger injury.

Chris Godwin: ADP 45.91

Godwin is one of the top two or three slot receivers in the game right now and even hampered with injuries through most of the year he finished 2020 with 840 yards and seven touchdowns. If he played for anyone else he would be a top 25 overall selection but he suffers the same issues as the rest of the Bucs offense. There is too much depth. He only exceeded 100 yards once through the entire season and that was week 16 against the Falcons secondary that was largely practice squad players and some guys who were signed from the local flag football team in Atlanta.

Tom Brady: ADP 73.84

Tom Brady is likely going to be my only target on this entire team unless we have some ADP changes. Figuring out out which guy will have a big year of the 8 options is nearly impossible so just do yourself a favor and pick the guy who is throwing the ball. You know who Tom Brady is and you either think he can still play and you draft him. Or, you think father time will catch up and you do not. It is really that simple.

Ronald Jones: ADP 84.44

If you were to force me to pick a running back for the Bucs RoJo would be my choice. You are not going to get any kind of tangible ADP discount, I just think he is a better back. His yards per carry was over a full yard better than Fournette (5.1 compared to 3.8) and both Fournette and Jones are decent receivers out of the backfield. The downside (apart from depth) is that Bruce Arians will bench Jones for entire games out of nowhere because he missed a block or was late to a practice. It is so bad and so random it feels personal. In 2019 during one of Winston’s multiple five turnover games, he missed a read. Winston got a pass while Jones was almost completely removed from the offense and chastised publicly. I am just going to pass unless it is best ball.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Leonard Fournette: ADP 87.57

The one thing that we kind of had some consistency on with the Bucs backfield in 2020 was that Fournette was going to get more work than Jones in passing down situations. That is no longer a given. Brady went out and personally recruited Giovanni Bernard in the offseason to presumably fill the “James White” role. If you did not know any better you would assume that it was Bill Belichick who was the main driver of the maddening three and four running back by committee backfields. This is actually a preference that Brady shares wholeheartedly and he has gone out of his way to recreate this in Tampa. This is a nightmare of a backfield now so have fun pulling out your hair if you get in on it.

Antonio Brown: ADP 113.27

If you were to tell me that I HAD to draft a receiver from this Bucs squad this season the only one I would feel remotely comfortable with at their current ADP is AB. With a full offseason under his belt with Tampa and a quiet-ish offseason in what feels like an eternity for him, he is the only Buc who I think has a chance to exceed their value. in only four starts last year the seven-time pro bowl receiver caught 45 of his 62 targets for 483 yards and four touchdowns. His yards per reception were about two yards less than his career average (10.7 in 2020 compared to 13.3 over his career) but I think that has more to do with him getting familiar with the offense and getting himself into game shape. Year two with the Bucs should have a full playbook available to him and plenty of opportunities to exceed 1,000 yards and catch anywhere between 6-8 touchdowns. For a player that you can get as your fourth wide receiver in the 10th round he is the one receiver on the Bucs roster you can afford to take a shot on.

Rob Gronkowski: ADP 149.50

I do not want this to be misinterpreted so let me be clear, I am not saying they are in the same league right now but how many people are aware that Gronk and Kelce are only six months apart in terms of age? How about how he only has one more season under his belt? Sure, injuries have slowed him down but these two guys were neck and neck for years in terms of fantasy stat lines. He played a full 16 games last year and caught 45 balls for 623 yards and seven touchdowns (that’s TE 8 in PPR) and you can get him 13-14 rounds later. If you want to completely punt the position and load up on running backs and receivers or you are in a Tight End premium league there are plenty of worse options to go with.

Giovanni Bernard: ADP 182.50

I am not going any further and I am going to be brief. Bernard should only be drafted in the absolute deepest of PPR leagues as a final depth piece and even then I think I could find better options. Brady specifically wanted him to be on the team, he is sure-handed as his history in Cincy would suggest, and Brady needs a competent blocker in the backfield during passing down situations going into his age 44 season. ADP seems steep but I have drafted in a ton of best ball drafts and I personally have not seen in drafted in any of them so I am thinking the 182 climbs closer to 190-200 as we get closer to week one.

Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Final Thoughts:

This preview is probably the single most challenging one that I will have through all 32 teams. The Bucs are extremely deep to the point of absurdity, they have a quarterback who may be the best ever at spreading the ball around, and to top it all off they have a defense that can shut opposing teams down making the need to even score points an unnecessary luxury some weeks. When it comes to drafting your fantasy teams you want to aim for clear situations with narrow player pools and while the depth chart is “clear”, there is no wider player pool in the NFL. If you are drafting these guys I wish you the best of luck, because it is going to be a crapshoot.

Hope you enjoyed Stoweby’s 2021 NFL Fantasy Preview: Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Hopefully, you have learned something that you can make use of in your Dynasty, Best Ball, and Seasonal Drafts, and got the juices flowing a bit to help you take down a big one in week one when the time comes. I look forward to creating more content covering all 32 NFL teams. Any questions about the article, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFLSports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

David Stowe
written by David Stowe

It’s the end of the road ladies and gentlemen and what a ride it has been. It is safe to say that we have never experienced anything quite like 2020 in fantasy sports and beyond. Now that we have turned the page on the year that was let’s finish this NFL season with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs play essentially what is a road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa. Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more. Enough wasting your time Let’s look at our Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021.

This is the point where I usually put a note in telling you to avoid high risk plays so that you can remain profitable over the long term but it’s the Super Bowl, lets have some fun today! Additionally to avoid having the specific plays change minutes after I post this article I’m going to give you players that I like and where I see their props hitting so that you can take the over or under respectively. Don’t fret though I’m gonna have a couple of high risk YOLO plays at the bottom that I’m going to have a little fun with.

I’m working largely with what I’ve been provided. There are many more plays that I would like to recommend today but the player pool is pretty limited for tomorrows contest. No worries though, we’ll cash no matter what.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady:

Monkey Knife Fight’s passing yards are going the wrong way in my opinion, they opened at 301.5 and have already gone up to 305.5 . I know Bruce Arians loves to air it out but in my opinion the only way that Tampa wins this game is by a run heavy approach where they can shorten the game and reduce the number of possessions Patrick Mahomes has to work with. Our model has Brady at 285 passing yards so take advantage of the public pushing the number in the opposite direction.

Buccaneers Pass Catchers:

The side effect that comes with our quarterbacks being so severely projected over what we are seeing with our models is that the pass catchers are also way over what we are expecting in this contest. Shockingly, Mike Evans is only about a yard over our projections ( Stix 68.2 vs. MKF 69.5) respectively so it may be a good idea to wait on some movement before you make a play with Evans one way or another. To this point they haven’t given is any other Bucs receiving yard props to use so I have nothing else to really add to this right now.

Leonard Fournette:

Right now there is a pretty big discrepancy between sites like DK Sportsbook and Monkey Knife Fight where the yardage prop is 59.5 on MKF and 48.5 on DK. I’m inclined to go under 59.5 rushing yards on MKF and here’s why. I do expect Tampa to run the ball a good bit more but Ronald Jones still saw a 54% to 45% snap share advantage after being gone for two weeks. I know we all want to crown Fournette, but the truth is that while Jones is there and not in the doghouse he gets more work than Fournette in running situations.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Patrick Mahomes:

With the expectation that Tampa will try to control the clock with the run game as much as possible we can also infer that Patrick Mahomes will additionally receive fewer opportunities to add to his yardage totals. Our models are giving us a 302 yard passing total. Much like Tom Brady‘s prop on Monkey Knife Fight Mahomes is being juiced way too high by the rest of the public as seen by the 335.5 yard prop. I think this one will likely stay put but if the public keeps taking the over this number could exceed 340 by game time. I know it is ugly and unsexy but I will be going under on passing yards by both QB’s.

Chiefs Pass Catchers:

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are each sitting at 101.5 and 103.5 receiving yards respectively on Monkey Knife Fight where Stix’s model has Hill 14 yards less at 87.5 and Kelce with 19 less receiving yards at 84.5. This would make sense given the how many people are pushing the over on this game. I know it is the Chiefs, but the Buccaneers have been one of the elite defensed in the NFL for the majority of the season and actually do have the right defensive player to put up a good fight. Combine that with the expectation that this game will be a bit grindier than usual and I’ll be the boring guy who wins with the unders Sunday.

Super Bowl LV Yolo Play:

More or Less (5 of 5) 20x return:

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

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NFL DFS Super Bowl Showdown Spectacular: Chiefs at Bucs

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re bringing you NFL DFS analysis that breaks down the Super Bowl Showdown contests — helping you win big money in the big game!

Let’s start off by acknowledging that the Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites on the road against the best QB in NFL history, and that the chalkiest game script would make Tom Brady the most likely candidate to rack up the most points on either site – especially considering how much the Bucs spread the ball around to multiple receivers.

If the Chiefs jump out to any kind of lead in this road game, there’s a very good chance the Bucs will make a run – and there’s not much of a chance the Chiefs blow out Tampa Bay on their home turf.

There are some interesting pricing options we should observe – most notably the low DK price on Ronald Jones II and the relatively high tag for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on both sites. Neither of these guys should be written off. I’ll be mixing in hares of both backs considering their talents and the long time they’ve had to recover from injuries – not to mention the relatively low ownership they’ll garner despite soaring upside. I’m comfortable using both in 2/10 builds, and one or the other in three of the remaining eight. Darrel Williams may be the better Chiefs back to own assuming a Bucs win, since he’s the more prolific pass catcher of the two Chiefs backs (excluding Le’Veon Bell – who is expected to be available in an admittedly uncertain role).

Considering how bad the Chiefs run defense is, there’s even a chance that I play both Leonard Fournette and Jones in the one or two contrarian builds (out of ten) that DON’T feature Tom Brady – whose last Super Bowl performance (2018 season) was an unmitigated bust: 262-0-1 in a 13-3 win against a stalwart Rams defense. But this Chiefs defense is not the same animal as that Rams unit – and I’m fairly certain the Chiefs would prefer a 60+ point game total to a defensive battle.

The Bucs defense, on the other hand, will have the most trouble stopping Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – both of whom offer mismatches for contrasting reasons – Kelce for his size and ability to manhandle smaller defenders in the middle of the field and in the red zone, and Hill for his blazing speed and the separation he gets in the open field. Both should be chalky, but paired with the right QB (it’s going to be very difficult to fit both Brady and Patrick Mahomes), either of these players has a good chance to post 25+ fantasy points.

Having the Bucs DST in a stack with Jones is probably the best contrarian RB/DST route we can go, and it leaves plenty of salary for working in Mahomes/Kelce or Mahomes/Hill.

There’s also some merit to playing the Bucs TEs (one or both of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate) in a stack with Brady – and it’s actually one of the ways to get both QBs in your lineup. This is assuming Mahomes does enough running and throwing himself to warrant consideration in a shootout at that obscene price tag. Gronk should be ready for a bigger workload in the biggest game he’s played since SB LIII, and Brate has five or more targets in three straight games. About one-quarter of the receiving yardage against the Chiefs came via the TE position this season, and Brate and Gronk’s usage in Week 12 against the Chiefs (Gronk ran 27 routes and caught 7-106-0 on eight targets; Brate saw six targets on 20 routes) fits that narrative. If Brady’s passing numbers soar, it’s very possible that him with WR/TE/TE could be the winning stack.

We’re not ignoring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and we’re certainly looking the way of Scotty Miller for his price – but unless we hear that Antonio Brown is 100 percent and prepping for a big role, I’m comfortable leaving him out of the equation this week. If he’s active, he’ll garner some minimal ownership, but he’s yet to make a huge impact on this Bucs team except as a distraction, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Evans and Godwin are way too expensive to play together along with Brady and the requisite Chiefs players.

Let’s talk briefly about defense/special teams. The pairings that work best for using a DST assume a defensive or special teams TD, so using one of the Bucs RBs with Jaydon Mickens (just $200 at FLEX on DK) and the Bucs DST could work. Conversely, the Chiefs DST could be paired with Mecole Hardman, who is $5,600 but offers some upside in the regular offense on end-arounds or quick-hitting catch-and-run plays that find him in space and galloping for greatness.

Let’s summarize and look at some Captain/MVP possibilities:

Super Bowl NFL DFS Captain/MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

Pivot: Patrick Mahomes (DK $18,000, FD $16,500)

Contrarian #1: Travis Kelce (DK $16,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Leonard Fournette (DK $11,700, FD $12,500)

FD/DK Value: Ronald Jones II (DK $2,200 FLEX, FD $8,000), Darrel Williams (DK $5,200 FLEX, FD $9,000). Scotty Miller (DK $3,400 FLEX, FD $6,500)

With these prices and scenarios in mind, let’s look at some of the possibilities on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – DraftKings

The 1.5x bonus is nice, but you’ve got to pay the piper for it. We’ve discussed Brady as the best possible captain choice and how you can make it work with Scotty Miller and TEs, but if you roll that way in a smattering of your MME builds you really have to alternate some Chiefs (CEH/Hill or CEH/Kelce).

This is also the only site we can utilize some of the DST touchdown stacks (with the kick returners), so bear that in mind.

It’s also the site where we can roll the dice on RoJo or play around with the idea of using the salary-saving Scotty Miller as captain. And since we have to fill six spots, kickers are a little more in play than they are on FD – where there are just five slots.

Additional NFL DFS Notes: Super Bowl Showdown – FanDuel

While things are a little more straightforward on FD (higher minimum price, no defenses and flat cost for all positions) you have to get a little more creative to build a unique lineup. This makes single-entry tournaments even more attractive and means you can more comfortably roster a big-impact, large-volume skill position players who’s not a QB (I’m looking at all four RBs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you’re looking for a narrow player pool).

That said, I still prefer Tom Brady in the captain spot on FD. He’s got a lot of productive pass-catching weapons, he likes to spread it around, and he’s going to rack up points in about eight of the 10 narratives we’ve discussed.

I probably won’t be using kickers in my FD builds.

A couple more things:

  1. Pay attention to new WinDaily handicapper Mike North’s betting preview and any updates he makes.
  2. Check out Mike and Sia’s podcast breakdown.

Lastly — keep an eye out for injury updates and breaking news right up to lock for NFL DFS. A lot can happen the night before a Super Bowl, even during the time of COVID.

10:30 a.m. injury/news update

Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) had been trending in the right direction and will suit up for Super Bowl LV. While his usage in the big game is a huge question mark, he probably won’t receive his normal complement of snaps and routes. Just because he’s active doesn’t mean he should be a staple of your builds, and he’s certainly not cash-viable. Chiefs C Daniel Kilgore (COVID-19 precautions) was also cleared for the Super Bowl after testing negative all week as a high-risk close contact — but that’s just context. Explosive but underutilized WR Demarcus Robinson has also been removed from the team’s COVID list and will be available.

Antonio Brown (knee) and Cameron Brate (back) are also active, which means the Bucs will be at full strength offensively despite Brown’s previous inactivity and Brate’s back injury he sustained in practice this week. I’m still hesitant to play Brown, and Brate’s DFS upside depends largely on snap count and red zone usage.

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Week 11 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown Preview: Rams at Bucs

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 11 NFL DFS contests!

Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 11 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Chalk: Tom Brady (DK $16,500, FD $16,000)

Pivot: Ronald Jones II (DK $13,200, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #1: Jared Goff (DK $14,700, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Robert Woods (DK $12,300, FD $12,500)

DK Punts: Leonard Fournette ($6,600) or Tyler Higbee ($7,200)

DK Contrarian Punt: Rams DST ($4,500)

While there are viable showdown builds that feature Bucs WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, Tom Brady will be the chalk at captain on Monday night, largely because he spreads the ball around quite a bit. Evans was targeted a season-high 11 times last week, while Godwin has yet to receive fewer than six targets in any game he’s suited up for this season. Embattled egomaniac and HOA member Antonio Brown was targeted eight times last week in his second game with the team, so he’s another WR who could make an impact.

The Rams DST could be the best contrarian punt option to directly challenge the “Tom Brady smashes in typical fashion” narrative, since we’ve seen a disruptive Aaron Donald and this unit post double-digit DK point totals in four of the last six games.

Jared Goff is certainly an option as well, but the three-headed Rams rushing attack presents a difficult situation to parse for fantasy purposes. Goal line work that typically goes to a healthy Darrell Henderson, Jr. was handled by Malcolm Brown (two rushing TDs on six carries) in Week 10, and Cam Akers finally saw some work between the 20s with 10 carries and a modest 38 rushing yards. The Bucs stingy run defense also complicates the deployment of Rams RBs – but it also helps to reduce their ownership, so picking the right one (just like picking the right Bucs pass-catcher) could be the key to smashing the slate.

On the Bucs side, we’ve got two explosive RBs, with Ronald Jones II the clear RB1 and Leonard Fournette acting as a change-of-pace runner and an elevated role in passing down work. It doesn’t matter which back you use – you could even use both – but whatever back you choose should reflect the obvious correlation plays for both teams.

As for the other Rams position players, I usually lean more heavily toward Robert Woods for his possession attributes and larger snap share, but Cooper Kupp and his elevated price could make him the preferred option in GPPs this week. I’m also interested in Tyler Higbee, as frequently targeting the Rams TE it could be a way for Goff to neutralize the pass rush.

And speaking of TEs, the Bucs have two good ones in Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate, both of whom receive red zone targets and make for more affordable options.

It’s a week where an expertly constructed single-entry lineup could see tons of success, but multiple entries are the way to go if you’re hell-bent on coming close to finding the golden ratio of showdown perfection and taking down a huge GPP.

Week 11 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Be afraid to get a little different with your builds. Tom Brady will be massive chalk on FD, and last night’s winning lineup didn’t have Patrick Mahomes (90% owned) or Tyreek Hill (21.5 FD points), even though both had solid games.

DO: Follow a narrative that makes sense. If you’re committed to a rare Brady bust, feel free to get the Rams DST in there.

DON’T: Forget about Bucs kicker Ryan Succop – who’s had double digit totals in four of his last six games.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Tom Brady
  2. Ronald Jones II
  3. Jared Goff
  4. Robert Woods
  5. Chris Godwin
  6. Cooper Kupp
  7. Mike Evans
  8. Antonio Brown
  9. Leonard Fournette
  10. Darrell Henderson, Jr.
  11. Josh Reynolds
  12. Rob Gronkowski
  13. Tyler Higbee
  14. Malcolm Brown
  15. Ryan Succop
  16. Bucs DST
  17. Cameron Brate
  18. Rams DST
  19. Gerald Everett
  20. Cam Akers
  21. Matt Gay
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