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StixPicks

NFL THANKSGIVING DAY: DraftKings & FanDuel Plays

4 years ago

written by

First and foremost I am grateful for everyone who took the time to click on this article and the simple fact that you are a part of the Win Daily Family! We are blessed to be able to talk sports everyday and to have you in our community. If anyone is struggling making lineups, need advice, an opport...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 11

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 11. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 11

Pittsburgh Steelers (22.88)
Minnesota Vikings (22.18)
New England Patriots (21.90)
Atlanta Falcons (21.13)
New Orleans Saints (20.92)
Baltimore Ravens (20.58)

My Personal Top Stacks:
– Dallas Cowboys
– Minnesota Vikings
– Baltimore Ravens
– Atlanta Falcons
– Cincinnati Bengals

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson – Clearly the top-dog Quarterback on this slate without Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Russell Wilson. His price is respectable, if not too-cheap on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He should be coming into this slate around 15-20% owned but I’ll be shocked if he eclipses 10% in total ownership.

Tennessee has absolutely no pass rush and a beaten-up secondary. Lamar will get in done via the run and the pass like he did in 2019tomorrow and replicate a monster outing he put on the Titans last year in the playoffs.

Use him naked or pair him up with Hollywood Brown and/or Mark Andrews. This is a plus-matchup for both of them! Don’t forget about Derrick Henry on the back-side of this game for some correlation.
Andy Dalton – He’s just way too cheap on DraftKings ($5,300) and offers us a perfect pivot off of 20% owned, Taysom Hill (LOL). I do not understand the love for playing Hill at Quarterback. Load up Dalton against this sieve of a pass defense in Minnesota.

The only headache here is who to pair him up with but there are plenty of good choices to roll out there and then of course using Dalvin Cook and/or Justin Jefferson or Adam Thielen on the back-end.

Honorable Mention: Matt Ryan, Cam Newton, Joe Burrow, DeShaun Watson

Running Backs

Miles Sanders – No idea how Sanders isn’t coming in over 15% on current ownership projections. I absolutely loved what I saw out of Miles Sanders last week despite having two touchdowns somewhat vultured away from him (Boston Scott earned his, even though he stepped out).

There are very few backs that get as many touches as Miles Sanders but all of them are priced over $7K on DraftKings (outside of Mike Davis) and over $8K on FanDuel. Keep in mind, Myles Garrett being out leaves a big hole in this Cleveland defense.
Ezekiel Elliott (DraftKings) – We’ve never seen Zeke at $6,500 on DraftKings and I don’t think we ever will again. Take advantage of these savings now that Erving and Martin make their return to Dallas’ offensive line.

The AETY Model has this game handicapped for a total of 52 points and really loves it’s potential to shootout. Getting a 18+ touch Zeke Elliott really intrigues me in NFL DFS GPP lineups at $6,500 in salary.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, Kerryon Johnson, Phillip Lindsay, James Conner

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones / Calvin Ridley – I love Matt Ryan this week against the pass funnel, New Orleans defense. I have no idea what to expect from the pace of the Taysom Hill led Saints’ offense, but if they play with a decent tempo, I love this game’s ability to go over the total.

If that happens, sub-10% owned Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley are in prime spots to produce. If given one choice, I’d choose Ridley due to the savings and seeing more or Janoris Jenkins in coverage, but they’re both great NFL DFS GPP plays in Week 11.
Adam Thielen – If Justin Jefferson is going to garner twice as much ownership as Adam Thielen, I’ll have a ton of Thielen on Sunday. I’ve talked enough about how much I like this game and I love the pairing of Dalvin Cook/Adam Thielen on the other side of my Cowboys’ stacks.
Tyler Boyd – Tyler Boyd under $6K in salary… just go ask Ghost what we do when that is a scenario for an upcoming NFL DFS GPP slate. Jimmy Moreland is a bottom tier slot-cornerback and will struggle all game long against an elite route runner like Tyler Boyd. Both of these teams play at a solid pace so there should be plenty of opportunities for Boyd to shine.
Dallas Cowboys Wide Receivers – Again, I’m not sure who to rank the highest for my Andy Dalton stacks, but if I had to choose, I’d probably lean Amari Cooper first, Michael Gallup (he’s so damn cheap) second, and CeeDee Lamb as the odd man out (or minimal shares in 150 entry contests).

As most of you are not 150-max entry players, I think you should focus around building your Dallas lineups with Cooper/Gallup or Cooper/Elliott. If you need salary relief in any other NFL DFS GPP lineup, Michael Gallup is more than a viable punt this week as a one-off.

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Denzel Mims, Marquise Brown, Mike Williams, Marvin Jones, Robby Anderson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

TJ Hockenson – No idea how this dude isn’t projected for 15% ownership, again! No Danny Amendola this week only makes this sweeter for Hockenson.

Honorable Mention: All of the Popular Tight Ends (Mark Andrews, Dallas Goedert, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 11 Cash Game Checkdown

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Another great week for Week 10 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 11, which is shaping up to be a really nice slate without a lot of headache decisions. A slate without Wilson, Kyler, and Mahomes should make your roster builds much less of a headache.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 11, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

ON FANDUEL: LOCK in Taysom Hill at Tight End. It’s embarrassing that they haven’t changed his position, but take advantage of that freesquare. If you don’t play him in FanDuel cash lineups, retire from DFS, yesterday.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
CHALK REPORT: Taysom Hill, Dalvin Cook, Duke Johnson, Giovani Bernard, Jakobi Meyers, Keenan Allen, and Mark Andrews all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DK / $8,400 FD) – On a slate with no Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, and Russell Wilson. Lamar Jackson is clearly the top dog at the Quarterback position. Mike Vrabel will likely have a good game plan to slow down the quarterback that posted over 500 all-purpose yards against him in the playoffs last year, but this Tennessee defense is bad, so Vrabel doesn’t matter to me at all.

In addition, this price-tag on Lamar Jackson is way too low for the upside he possesses. Great option for cash game and NFL DFS GPP builds this week.
Cam Newton ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD) – Holy savings on DraftKings! Houston’s defense is absolutely atrocious rating 32nd against the run in DVOA and 22nd in pass defense DVOA. Cam should have a field day in both categories at a very affordable price.
Andy Dalton ($5,300 DK ONLY) – If you need the savings, you can’t really go wrong with using Andy Dalton as your DraftKings quarterback. This game has sneaky shootout potential and this price is fantastic.

Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill (DK), Justin Herbert, DeShaun Watson, Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,000 DK / $10,500 FD) – Expensive as hell, but if you can afford him, you play him.
Alvin Kamara ($9,200 DK / $9,700) – Kamara is much more appealing this week on FanDuel but similar to Cook, if you can afford him, you play him in cash.

I don’t think it’s 100% necessary to use one or the other in cash, but it’s clearly doable with all of the savings around both sites this weekend.
Miles Sanders ($6,900 DK / $7,700 FD) – Way too cheap for one of the few running backs in the NFL that is not in a timeshare. Cleveland’s run defense is extremely banged up and have been getting worse at defending the run on a weekly basis. With a close spread and an upper-40s point total, this should set up nicely for a very busy Miles Sanders day.
Kalen Ballage ($5,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you need to go dumpster diving, it seems like the whole field is going to Kalen Ballage against the Jets. With Ekeler and Justin Jackson both injured, Ballage is clearly the number one running back (played over 70% of the snaps last week) and should be considered for salary relief in your cash game builds.
Kerryon Johnson ($4,000 DK / $4,800 FD) – D’Andre Swift is out, so it’s wheels up to Adrian Peterson and the forgotten Kerryon Johnson. It’s disgusting, but as you saw last week with Mike Davis, you can cash a cash game lineup with 7-8 points out of your running back punt play.

Honorable Mention: Duke Johnson, Ezekiel Elliott, Giovani Bernard, Mike Davis, Antonio Gibson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $9,500 FD) – Adams is matchup proof and offers the highest floor on this slate against Indianapolis’ Xavier Rhodes and Rock Ya-Sin.
Calvin Ridley ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD) – You’re going to want exposure to this Atlanta/New Orleans shootout and no better way to do so on the Atlanta side with Calvin Ridley coming back at 100% health. Julio Jones is absolutely in play here, but I’ll take the savings with Ridley and a great matchup against Marshon Lattimore and Janoris Jenkins.
Keenan Allen ($7,400 DK / $8,000 FD) – Keenan Allen will likely always make the cash article on a weekly basis. Hard to avoid this target share and consistent double-digit floor. Pair all of that with a matchup against the Jets’ dead last ranked pass defense and you’ll do just fine in a cash build.
Amari Cooper ($5,400 DK / $6,900 FD) – Absolute freesquare on DraftKings against this Vikings’ secondary we pick on weekly. No need to over think this one, this is a great buy-low spot for Amari Cooper (and any Cowboy receiver for that matter) with Andy Dalton coming back under center.
Diontae Johnson ($5,900 / $6,400 FD) – This dude is incredible. When he’s on the field, he collects damn-near a 30% target share. Big Ben loves throwing him the football and for good reason… he produces! Diontae Johnson against the 2nd worst secondary in the NFL is a perfect recipe for NFL DFS cash game success.
Jakobi Meyers ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – On DraftKings, I think rolling out Jakobi Meyers is a lock-button for me. Meyers is still well below what his price should be and he’s built a strong chemistry with Cam Newton over the past month while racking up 37 targets in his last four games.

Honorable Mention: Terry McLaurin, Justin Jefferson, Tyler Boyd, Marvin Jones, Jarvis Landry, CeeDee Lamb, Denzel Mims

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce or Darren Waller. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet (on DraftKings, because remember, you’re using Taysom Hill on FanDuel), but here are my top options on the slate.

Mark Andrews ($4,900 DK)
Dallas Goedert ($3,800 DK)
Logan Thomas ($3,300 DK)

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Los Angeles Chargers
Baltimore Ravens
Washington Football Team
Denver Broncos
Atlanta Falcons

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Kerryon Johnson
RB: Miles Sanders
WR: Diontae Johnson
WR: Jakobi Meyers
WR: Amari Cooper
TE: Logan Thomas
FLEX: Dalvin Cook
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 10

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 10. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 10

Arizona Cardinals (25.13)
Los Angeles Rams (24.36)
Green Bay Packers (24.15)
Buffalo Bills (22.33)
Pittsburgh Steelers (21.98)
Seattle Seahawks (21.77)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – With an ownership projection around 5-7%, I’m all aboard the Wilson train. Despite a very tough matchup against the Rams and their 9th ranked defense (in terms of pass DVOA), I don’t think there’s going to be much in the way to slow down Russ.

This is one of the lowest weeks of combined ownership for Wilson/Lockett/Metcalf and I’ll be sure to have multiple combinations of the three and run it back with a Rams’ player or two. Quite frankly, I am really only interested in getting my stack exposure to this game and with Kyler Murray/Josh Allen in that 56 point total in Arizona.
Jared Goff – On the other side of Wilson, it’s wheels up for Jared Goff and this Rams’ passing attack. We pick on Seattle’s pass defense (ranked 29th in DVOA) every single week and there’s no reason to shy away now. The AETY Model has Jared Goff projected for 306 passing yards which is by far the highest on this slate. Great salary relief as well for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: Drew Brees, Tom Brady, Kyler Murray, Josh Allen

Running Backs

*Obviously, Aaron Jones and Alvin Kamara make a ton of sense to roster. With the weather and the savings, I prefer Aaron Jones, but we will see a bit of Jamaal Williams this week. I do not think either of these guys are “must-plays” in GPPs, but you definitely want to give them a lot of consideration in your NFL DFS GPP lineups*

Chase Edmonds – If Kenyan Drake is out, Chase Edmonds becomes a very nice value play in the highest totaled game on the slate. Buffalo’s defense has really struggled against the run and despite a weak showing in Week 9, Edmonds hardly left the field… 96% snap share!

Buffalo ranks 22nd in run defense DVOA and Arizona should have their way with the Bills on the ground as they are the 4th most efficient rushing offense in the NFL. Kyler Murray’s ownership is going to be through the roof (and rightfully so), why not pivot to Chase Edmonds at ~10% ownership?

Moving to James Conner now that Kenyan Drake is going to suit up.
Antonio Gibson – I simply love this dude’s game. I know we’ve seen a ton of JD McKissic lately (even running routes out of the slot), but I project this game to be much slower paced and offer Gibson a gamescript where he can thrive. Detroit’s run defense is allowing ~5 yards per carry to opposing running backs and rank 25th in run defense DVOA.

At Gibson’s price, I think this is an excellent spot for him to hit 4x value at 5% ownership.
Ronald Jones / Leonard Fournette – Carolina’s run defense has significantly improved over the year but they’re still bleeding yards to opposing running backs. This is going to be an absolute statement game from Tom Brady and the Bucs’ offense. I hate the timeshare, but this should be a gamescript that sets up nicely for two or three rushing touchdowns.

I personally am leaning RoJo, but I will have a feel lineups with Fournette as well. Fournette has been taking away snaps from Jones over the past few weeks, but the Bucs seem plenty confident in riding Jones a bit more when the game is close or in their favor. That should be his role to run with in Week 10.
Nick Chubb – Guess who’s back? Mr. Nick Chubb in a cakewalk matchup (with weather concerns that will make passing the ball extremely difficult) against Houston’s pathetic run defense. We’re likely going to see 40+ rush attempts from this Cleveland outside-zone run scheme and that will pay dividends to both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, James Robinson, D’Andre Swift, Phil Lindsay

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen – Every single week we pick on Miami slot-corner, Nik Needham. Lock in Keenan and enjoy the show.
Michael Thomas – He’s simply too cheap for Michael Thomas and a nice pivot away from 25% owned Alvin Kamara chalk. I like them both, but I’m leaning Michael Thomas here in GPP lineups. Hell, make a stack with Brees/Thomas/Kamara, they’re going to put up points.
Cooper Kupp / Robert Woods – With how much I love Jared Goff and the Rams’ passing attack, I obviously love Kupp and Woods this week. If I had to make a choice, I think Woods has the higher output against a Seattle secondary who will be without Shaq Griffin and Quinton Dunbar. See below for another Rams’ option.
John Brown – Most of my builds cannot afford Stefon Diggs and I don’t really mind that at all. Diggs is going to be 30% owned in this shootout with Arizona. I’ll pivot down to John Brown for my Buffalo exposure in a matchup against Johnathan Joseph. Brown is going to produce big numbers as long as this game stays up-pace.
Jerry Jeudy – This kid is special. We take advantage of this Raiders’ secondary on a weekly basis and won’t stop now. Jeudy should have a field day against arguably the worst trio of cornerbacks in the AFC.
DK Metcalf – If everyone is afraid of shadow treatment by Jalen Ramsey, I’m going to be heavily invested in DK Metcalf. I don’t care who you are, you cannot cover DK Metcalf for 60 minutes of football. Current ownership projections show the highest ceiling wide receiver in the game under 10%… Let’s roll.
Josh Reynolds / Larry Fitzgerald – If you need salary relief or an educated punt-play, Josh Reynolds and Larry Fitzgerald will be my guys. I’ll likely never have both of them in the same lineup, but this is the cheapest, viable pieces of the #1 and #2 offenses on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals model.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Jarvis Landry, Brandon Aiyuk, Curtis Samuel, Tyler Lockett

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

TJ Hockenson – No idea how this dude isn’t projected for 15% ownership. Washington is terrible at covering the tight end and outside of COVID-19 and Travis Kelce, there really hasn’t been anything else as consistent as TJ Hockenson in 2020.
Greg Olsen – Disgusting, I know. But hear me out. The Rams cannot cover tight ends, I don’t care what the numbers say. If Ramsey and the Rams’ defense can slow down Metcalf/Lockett just a bit, Greg Olsen is going to run 20+ routes in this game. Assuming that happens, Olsen is easily going to go for 4x value for your NFL DFS GPP lineup.

He’s not going to go nuts, but at his price, he allows you to get very creative with your roster builds.

Honorable Mention: All of the chalky tight ends (Goedert, Waller, Fant)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 10, which is a bit of a strange slate to say the least.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Mike Davis (lock in cash), Duke Johnson, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Kyler Murray at this point in the season? No. No we do not. You know what you’re getting out of Kyler Murray and 15% or more of the field is going to roster him against Buffalo and their mediocre defense.
Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – On the other side of Kyler Murray is Mr. Josh Allen. Thank the lord we decided he was our QB1 last week and I have no problem if you go back to the well with Allen on the road as a slight underdog in a 56-point total. This game is going to be fun to watch and offer a lot of fireworks from a fantasy standpoint.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Mike Davis ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Just use him. McCaffrey is out and Davis is clearly mis-priced. He should be 100% owned in cash games and his output doesn’t matter. It’s not an ideal matchup against the 3rd best run defense in the league, but I find it nearly impossible for him not to get to 13+ fantasy points. Take the savings and run on the Davis freesquare.
Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – The lead running back on the team with the highest Adjusted Expected Team Total, at home, against the worst overall defense in the NFL (32nd in overall defense DVOA). My only concern with Jones is the return of Jamaal Williams who is certainly going to get plenty of snaps out of this Green Bay backfield (especially if this game gets out of hand).
Duke Johnson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another freesquare with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. I little bit better of a matchup than Mike Davis against Tampa Bay, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings (very affordable on FanDuel). If you want to use two punt running backs and pay up at QB/WR/TE, your path to victory in cash would be using Davis and Johnson together.

I’m not sure that’s the way I want my lineup to look with Johnson being quite inefficient via the run, but the pass catching ability should alleviate any concerns we have about Johnson’s floor for cash games.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Giovani Bernard, Kalen Ballage, James Robinson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Davante Adams against the absolute worst pass defense in the the NFL. Check mate. Personally, I am only going to play one Packer (Jones or Adams). Right now, I’m leaning Adams.
Stefon Diggs ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) – I love the value here on FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings as well… Especially when 25% of the field (if not more) is going to roster Diggs in NFL DFS cash games. Whether or not Patrick Peterson shadows should not deter you from rostering the best route runner in the NFL who owns a ~30% target share.
Michael Thomas ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – Just way too cheap for Michael Thomas against a completely depleted, struggling secondary in San Francisco. Thomas led the team in targets last week and will start to get back to a similar workload he had in 2019 (certainly not as high of a floor he had last year, but it’s still incredibly high).
Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800) – Is there anyone in the NFL that’s been more consistent than Keenan Allen? No. No, there isn’t. Remember just a few weeks ago when were so high on Cooper Kupp in this same matchup against Miami’s slot cornerback, Nik Needham? Yea, let’s ride. Keenan is as safe as ever to get to 2.5x value in you NFL DFS Cash Games.
Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – In the first game without Odell Beckham we saw Jarvis rack up 11 targets (in that gale-force wind game against Las Vegas). I’m always going to be interested in sure-handed wide receivers with a 30% target share. Pair all of that with a matchup against Houston’s Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves and you’re going to be happy with the result.

Hell, Jake Luton and the Jaguars’ receiving core went nuts last week…
Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – Reynolds comes into the week grading out as the #1 NFL DFS value in the AETY Model for wide receivers. We all know how much of a pass funnel defense Seattle is as team’s torch them on a weekly basis. Reynolds is locked in for a minimum of 75% of the Rams’ offensive snaps assuming this game goes up-paced like Vegas and the pre-match 56 point total support.

I’d certainly prefer Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp here, but at this price, I’ll always sign off on cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Chris Conley, Tyler Lockett, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet, but here are my top options on the slate.

Darren Waller ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
Greg Olsen ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Reynolds
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
DST: Detroit Lions

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 9

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to get rolling again for Week 9. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 9

Kansas City Chiefs (25.76)
Seattle Seahawks (24.21)
Minnesota Vikings (24.13)
Arizona Cardinals (22.77)
Pittsburgh Steelers (22.63)
Houston Texans (22.43)
Buffalo Bills (21.83)
Los Angeles Chargers (21.04)

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – Welcome back, Mr. Wilson! Russell Wilson is once again the top quarterback in the AETY Model and I’ll be going right back to the well in this matchup at Buffalo with an expected total currently sitting at 55 points (highest on the slate).

I don’t really care what his ownership is, he’s too consistent to fade. You know who to stack him up with.
Josh Allen – On the other side of Wilson this week is obviously, Josh Allen. The Seattle passing defense is atrocious and should be a perfect get-right spot for Josh Allen (who hasn’t thrown a touchdown since Week 6). Allen is projected to lead this slate in passing yards and like Wilson, it’s very easy to stack him up as the target share in Buffalo is rather condensed.
Lamar Jackson – Lamar Jackson is now priced under $7K on DraftKings… a day I didn’t think we’d ever see any time soon when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. Yes, Indianapolis’ defense is extremely stout (ranked 3rd in overall defense DVOA), but I’ll always be interested in rostering Lamar Jackson when he’s likely under 5% owned… not to mention the salary relief he offers this week.

I have Lamar projected to throw for his season high this week (which isn’t saying a whole lot) and it should finally lead to a big day for Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews (both priced down throughout the DFS industry this week). If Lamar can do his usually damage on the ground and pair that with a 220+ passing yard performance with a couple of TDs, he may very well be QB1 this week and no one is going to play him.
Justin Herbert – Give me all of the Justin Herbert this week as they host the Las Vegas Raiders and their 31st overall ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). You can carve this secondary up and also run it down their throats. If the Raiders can keep the pace in this game and keep it close (the game is currently posted as a pick-em on most sportsbooks), Herbert and company should have another monster game at home in the dome.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Drew Lock, DeShaun Watson, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

*Obviously, Dalvin Cook, James Conner, Chase Edmonds are in smash spots. They should be a heavy focus of yours in most lineups, but here are the guys I think are difference-making pivots off of the heavy chalk RBs*

Derrick Henry – All hail King Henry, the NFL’s leading rusher by a healthy margin. Derrick Henry is currently projected to be in the 5-10% ownership bracket here in Week 9 against a Bears’ defense that is much more beatable on the ground than via the pass.

Having said that, the Bears sit right in the middle of the NFL in terms of opposing running back yards per carry (4.3), but they are without one of their better run stoppers in Roy Robertson-Harris this week and that will not bode well against Tennessee’s top-ten rushing offense (7th overall in run offense efficiency).

Yet again, Henry leads the AETY Model in projected rushing yards this week and leads the slate with (-240) odds to score. Ride him.
James Robinson – I was quite surprised to see how much James Robinson popped in the model this week as he certainly wasn’t on my radar heading into Week 9. The return of Chris Thompson may take some of the targets away from Robinson but I don’t think he poses much of a threat to the overall ceiling of Robinson this week (against Houston’s 27th ranked run defense who bleeds points to opposing running backs).

With the rookie QB in Jake Luton making his debut, I expect Jacksonville to play a bit conservative and utilize Robinson as much as possible (check-downs, 20+ carriers, etc.) and that should lead to a very high floor and a potential ceiling game for Robinson in NFL DFS GPP lineups… as the Jaguars play catch-up to Houston all game long.
Christian McCaffrey – It’s Christian McCaffrey and he’s priced the lowest we’ll likely ever see him again. I say it time and time again the way to move the football against Kansas City is via the run (ranked 28th in run defense DVOA). He’s been out for quite some time and all reports say that was to ensure he’s 100% healthy when he comes back to football.

That time is now and he’s going to be 5% owned… I’m in.

Honorable Mention: Josh Jacobs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Antonio Gibson, Nyheim Hines

Wide Receivers

Julio Jones – No AJ Bouye for Denver and likely no Calvin Ridley for Atlanta. Do I need to say much more? I really like this game’s chances of being an up-paced shootout with little-to-no defense at all. Julio is arguably the top wide receiver on this slate in that situation.
Tyler Lockett – Don’t care what his ownership is, I always love top-tier wide receivers in high-total games matchup up against Buffalo slot corner, Taron Johnson.
Allen Robinson / Darnell Mooney – On the other side of Derrick Henry, I’m likely to rollout one of these Bears’ wide receivers. I love picking on Tennessee’s secondary and I low-key think this game is going to be a bit of a shootout. I obviously prefer Robinson, but Mooney is 100% a serviceable punt-play as they both will get their fair share to do damage against Adoree Jackson and slow, Malcolm Butler.

With Jadeveon Clowney likely out for this game, the Titans’ awful pass rush is only going to be worse. Nick Foles should have plenty of time to get Robinson and Mooney the football (despite having tons of offensive line injuries themselves).
Justin Jefferson – The AETY Model loves the Vikings’ offense this week, so I’m likely to get a lot of exposure to Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen, and Justin Jefferson. Most of my lineup builds do not allow me to afford Thielen, so I’m going to roll out a lot of 5% owned Justin Jefferson (who I honestly prefer over Thielen anyways).

These Lions’ cornerbacks with or without Desmond Trufant have struggled all season long and that is not going to change in Week 9.
Marvin Jones – I have no idea how Marvin Jones isn’t projected for 40% ownership going up against Minnesota’s poor excuse for an NFL secondary. Cam Dantzler in coverage? Yikes. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Marvin Jones is going to be a core play for me everywhere this week.
Mike Williams – Alright, it’s time for the ballsy 100 yards receiving and at least one touchdown, call of the week. This week, that guy is going to be Mike Williams. This dude always has slate-breaking potential with an insanely high average depth of target and a climbing target share with Justin Herbert.

Obviously, Keenan Allen is Herbert’s boy, there is no denying that. But, as 25% of the field rushes to roster Keenan Allen, pivoting down to a much cheaper Mike Williams makes a lot of sense to me. You can also double-stack them with Herbert as well. If the Raiders can keep this game moving and keep it close, both of these wide receivers should have a field day against Trayvon Mullen, Lamarcus Joyner, and Nevin Lawson. These corners cannot contain the Chargers’ wideouts.

Honorable Mention: DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Terry McLaurin, Jerry Jeudy, Hollywood Brown, DJ Chark, Henry Ruggs

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – It’s Travis Kelce.
Darren Waller – He’s going to be very popular, but the majority of my lineups are predicting a shootout between the Raiders and the Chargers. I’ll need a lot of production from Darren Waller in hopes that gamescript runs true.
TJ Hockenson – Similar to Marvin Jones, Hockenson should have a great bump up with Golladay out (in what’s already been a shocking amount of production in the 2020 season). I think this game will be a bit more up-paced than most think and most gamescripts come down to the Lions’ chasing points. That should bode well for both Marvin Jones and TJ Hockenson.
Hayden Hurst – The target share has been continuously climbing over the past few weeks and the salary has not. Without Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst should continue to see 6+ targets and boost in red-zone usage. This game is likely to be a shootout and I’ll have a lot of Hurst/Julio exposure.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Evan Engram, Jonnu Smith

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

It was refreshing to see a normal (if not below-average) pay-line in our NFL DFS Cash Games in Week 8, to say the least. Let’s get right back at it for another solid Week 9.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett all project for over 20% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $9,000) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a Buffalo defense who has surprisingly struggled at all facets of the game. Somehow DraftKings lowered his price from last week?
Josh Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Allen hasn’t done much lately but for every other quarterback in the NFL, this has been the get-right spot against Seattle’s 30th ranked pass defense (in DVOA). Seattle is the ultimate pass-funnel defense and Allen also offers a lot of upside with his legs. He should have no issues getting over 22 fantasy points this weekend.
Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Herbert is absolutely on fire while averaging over 27 DraftKings’ points per game since being named the starter. The Raiders’ defense as a whole is absolute trash and coming into this week ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA. Like Allen and Russ, Herbert offers a lot of upside with his rushing abilities. It’s hard to not love him this week.
Drew Lock ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need the savings on DraftKings, Lock makes a ton of sense against Atlanta and their pass-funnel defense. Atlanta ranks second in opposing quarterback fantasy points per game (over 25 points allowed per game), so if there’s any week to trust Drew Lock, it’s this week. The return of Tim Patrick helps lock significantly as well.

Honorable Mention: DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $9,300 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook against Detroit’s run defense. No need to overthink it, you likely must eat the chalk on this one in NFL DFS cash games. He’s pricey and I honestly don’t think he’s a “must-play” as long as the rest of your lineup is sexy.
James Conner ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The Cowboys are absolute trash as a whole and even worse against opposing running backs (29th in run defense DVOA). Pair that with the Steelers being a 14.5-point favorite and that should equal a ton of James Conner production in Week 9. The only concern here is potential blowout but Conner should be a lock for 3x value no matter how this game unfolds.
Chase Edmonds ($6,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel. Lock him in against the worst run defense in the NFL. Kenyan Drake is out, it’s wheels up for Chase Edmonds at home. He will 100% be in my cash game lineup.
DeeJay Dallas ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – Carlos Hyde is out. Chris Carson is out. There’s really no one outside of a banged up Travis Homer who is going to compete with Dallas for the Seahawks’ backfield snaps. I don’t expect a ton out of DeeJay Dallas, but the savings open up a lot for your NFL DFS cash game lineup against Buffalo’s 24th ranked run defense (DVOA).

I look at it this way, we’re getting extremely cheap exposure to the 2nd best offense on this slate in the highest total game on this slate. DeeJay Dallas should have no problems getting to 14-15 fantasy points.

UPDATE: Love Justin Jackson in cash

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jackson, David Johnson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The target share is just so elite with Herbert under center and the matchup against the Raiders and Lamarcus Joyner is arguably more elite. 25 targets over the past two games!
Tyler Lockett ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – Our weekly “pick on Taron Johnson” write-up just happens to be Tyler Lockett. Yes, he disappointed a bit last week but Lockett will have a big game on the road here in Buffalo. Taron Johnson is one of the worst cover slot-cornerbacks in the NFL and Lockett is one of the best overall slot receivers in football. Let’s go.
Stefon Diggs ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – On the other side of Tyler Lockett is my favorite route runner in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. You shouldn’t need me to say a whole lot about Stefon Diggs in this matchup against the Seahawks. He’s in line for ~7 catches for 90 yards. If this game stays up-paced, that’s going to be his floor. I don’t care what the coverage scheme is against Diggs, if Allen is halfway competent, Diggs is in for a huge day.
Julio Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,200 FD) – I’m under the impression that Calvin Ridley is OUT. If so, Julio Jones is going to be one busy man on Sunday against a Broncos’ defense that will be without their top cornerback, AJ Bouye.
Marvin Jones ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – No Golladay this week equals Marvin Jones lock button against Minnesota’s poor excuse for a secondary. It’s that simple.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – I know Tim Patrick was out last week and that clearly opened up a lot for Jerry Jeudy, but he’s clearly earning more trust and target share with Drew Lock. Against this Atlanta secondary (who we pick on weekly) in the dome, Jeudy’s route running should be on display. He’s way too cheap and offers a nice bit of salary relief for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

UPDATE: Sterling Shepard added to cash WR pool

Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There’s no one more consistent at the tight-end position than Kelce. If you can afford him, you play him.
Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Waller was a bit of a let down last week in the wild weather of Cleveland, but he should be in a prime spot in a shootout against the Chargers with a pre-match total sitting at 52 points. Outside of Kelce, no one has as high of a team target share than Waller.
Noah Fant ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – The Falcons’ secondary gets torched by any sort of pass catcher. Fant is due for a big breakout game in 2020 and that may come in Week 9 if this game can keep a solid pace. Fant looks to be the chalkiest tight end on this slate so if you want to chase that in cash games, I won’t talk you off of it.
Evan Engram ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – The air yards have been through the roof lately with Engram and the targets obviously are climbing up as well (19 combined targets over the past two weeks). I absolutely hate the pace that we’ll likely see in this game, but at this price, Engram is in play.
Hayden Hurst ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) – If Ridley misses this game, that should be a decent bump up to one of my favorite tight ends in the NFL (who has seen his target share raise consistently over the past few weeks). If this game has a high pace like I think it will, let’s ride Hayden Hurst.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Drew Lock
RB: DeeJay Dallas
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Jerry Jeudy
WR: Marvin Jones
TE: Hayden Hurst
FLEX: Chase Edmonds
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 8

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. It was a strange week of scoring in Week 7 for NFL DFS GPP lineups but we can right the ship this Sunday. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NEW: Adjusted Expected Team Totals Rankings for Week 8
1. Kansas City Chiefs – 25.67
2. Green Bay Packers – 23.60
3. Seattle Seahawks – 23.45
4. San Francisco 49ers – 23.33
5. Los Angeles Rams – 22.28

*Great tool for evaluating DFS stacks and what offenses are likely to score the most via touchdowns (no special teams included)*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson – There are a ton of weather concerns this week, so I’ll likely be avoiding most of those games as a whole. I’m going to be heavily invested in this afternoon hammer when the 49ers go into Seattle to face Wilson and the boys.

This game has the highest total on the board (by far) and zero weather concerns at the moment. Wilson is the #1 quarterback in the AETY Model as well. There are so many ways to stack this game up and you know where all of the production is going.

On the other side, Jimmy Garoppolo is also a great play (and likely to be the chalkiest QB on the slate). I don’t care what ownership is for this game, I’ll be overweight in every possible way. Play Wilson naked, play him with Metcalf, play him with Lockett, or play him with both.

Potential Stack(s):
Metcalf/Lockett
Metcalf/Lockett/Aiyuk
Metcalf/Lockett/Kittle/Aiyuk
Metcalf/Lockett/Aiyuk/Bourne
Metcalf/Lockett/Kittle/Bourne

*Don’t forget, Tevin Coleman is active. Feel free to toss him into your west coast game stacks as well if you need the savings.
Patrick Mahomes – The best quarterback in the NFL against the worst defense in the NFL. Yes, the spread in this game is out of control and likely leads to a Kansas City blowout, but I trust Mahomes and this offense so much that I’m fine with stacking them (if we only get to see them for three quarters) before the second string comes in.

There are plenty of cheap options on the other side to run it back with, but I’m not sure you want to have a lot of KC/NYJ game stacks out there. A sub-10% owned Mahomes on a weird slate is something that just seems right.

Like Russ, you can play Mahomes naked, single stacked, double stacked, and game stacked. Kelce is probably my favorite pairing with Mahomes as these Jets’ linebackers and safeties give generous cushions in coverage on a weekly basis.

Potential Stack(s):
Hill/Kelce
Kelce/Hardman
Kelce/Hill/Mims
Kelce/Hill/Mims/Perine
Etc. etc. etc… you know what to do
Jared Goff – It wouldn’t be a NFL DFS GPP article without mentioning a player that is going to be 0% owned. Jared Goff is that guy for me this week. On paper, the Miami defense looks strong, but they’ve played nobody. In the two games they faced a top-10 offense in passing efficiency, they have given up an average of 387.5 passing yards (Seattle and Buffalo… both games in Miami).

The Rams come into this matchup ranked 9th in offensive pass efficiency… this is a low-key recipe for a blow-up game as the Rams really need a victory with a guaranteed loss coming for either Seattle or San Francisco, and Arizona on a bye.

I love what I’ve been seeing out of McVay and the rest of this Rams offense and I truly believe they’ll have no issues scoring 35+ points in this matchup.

Potential Stack(s):
Kupp/Woods
Kupp/Reynolds
Kupp/Everett
Kupp/Henderson
Kupp/Henderson/Gesicki

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Joe Burrow, Ryan Tannehill, Jimmy Garoppolo

Running Backs

Derrick Henry – He’s #1 on the AETY Model in terms of total rushing yards by a WIDE margin. Last time that happened, it was Week 6… which was the best DFS weekend of my life and likely Win Daily’s (screenshots galore). Henry is easily the top dog running back on this slate with a rushing projection over 110 yards and Vegas odds of (-250) to score. That all checks out as the Bengals’ rush defense is non-existent.

The issue with Henry is that it’s hard as hell to fit him in if you’re heavily invested in that afternoon game. There’s a lot of condensed value on this slate and likely everyone in the field that uses Henry is going to use the same players for salary relief (Mims or Bourne). When playing Henry, find a way to get different this week.
Kareem Hunt – I was all in last week and was disappointed a bit but I’ll go right back to the well this week against the Raiders’ 29th ranked defense, in terms of DVOA. The weather will be a mess in Cleveland and the tight spread leads me to believe Hunt will be heavily utilized all game long.
Jonathan Taylor – Rookie running backs after the bye week… I still don’t trust Frank Reich to fully unleash Jonathan Taylor, but if there was ever a matchup to free Jon Taylor, it’s this week against Detroit’s run defense. Outside of the timeshare, the only other downside is that Indianapolis has not been that effective of late when rushing the football.

The offensive line should be 100% healthy for the first time in over a month and that should lead to plenty of wide gaps for Taylor to bust through. If you’re looking to pivot off of Kareem Hunt chalk, Taylor would be my guy.
Darrell Henderson Jr. – Miami is dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams are top-5 on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool (and very efficient when running the football). This is an absolute smash spot for Henderson (if and only if McVay lets him loose). We know we’re going to see some Malcolm Brown and Cam Akers, but there’s no doubt in my mind that Henderson earned a much more significant role in the offense over the past few weeks.

I’d lock-button Henderson if he were priced down a bit more, but having said that, I’ll have still have ton of Henderson shares tomorrow as he’s likely to be ~5% owned while the field flocks to Gio Bernard at a similar price-point.
Le’Veon Bell – at $4,600 on DraftKings and a favorable running gamescript, Le’Veon Bell should absolutely put on a show when he’s on the field this Sunday. His touchdown odds throughout the week have plummeted (in favor of him scoring) and he has a solid rushing prop of 42 rushing yards.

If he can get some work in the passing game and find a way into the end-zone (you have to think Andy Reid is going to give Bell every chance he can to score a touchdown against Adam Gase), Bell should walk backwards into 3x value on this low salary.
La’Mical Perine – It’s gross, but I’m in. The only way you can really attack this 2020 Kansas City Chiefs’ defense is via the run game. The Jets are a god-awful football team, so there’s nothing sexy about this play at all. But as everyone and their brother punts down to Denzel Mims, I want to pivot up to La’Mical Perine. The AETY Model has Perine projected for 60 rushing yards, which clearly is a bit much, but I’m going to trust it and ride the young running back at 1% ownership.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Josh Jacobs, Tevin Coleman

Wide Receivers

DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – Again, just getting a ton of exposure to this afternoon game with the highest expected total on the slate. It’s been very difficult to run on this 49ers’ defense and Seattle has been incredibly efficient on offense by moving the ball through the air. They’re going to pass and pass a lot. I give a slight edge to Metcalf this week, but I’m very interested in both in Week 8.
Kenny Golladay – I’m done with stacking the Detroit Lions, but I’ll always play a sub $7K Kenny Golladay in a plus matchup against Rock Ya Sin and a washed-up Xavier Rhodes.
Tyler Boyd – On Monday, I was all-in on Bengals’ stacks featured by Tyler Boyd and his cakewalk matchup against Titans’ rookie slot cornerback, Chris Jackson, but the weather got me off this game a bit. I will still have a ton of Boyd on Sunday as I don’t think the weather really impacts the routes that Boyd runs on a weekly basis.

In addition, this Bengals’ offensive line (which was terrible to begin with) is likely out three starters. Burrow is going to have to get rid of the ball quick and I really only see that having a positive impact on Tyler Boyd and Gio Bernard.
Cooper Kupp – Kupp is my favorite WR on the slate this weekend. Nik Needham is arguably the worst cover corner in the NFL and Sean McVay sure as hell knows that. I love Jared Goff this weekend and I adore pairing him up with Cooper Kupp. Slot wide receivers absolutely torch Miami on a weekly basis and they’ve yet to see one as skilled and more importantly, as heavy of a focus in their offense as Cooper Kupp.
TY Hilton – He’s $4,900 on DraftKings. This is simply one of my favorite value plays on the slate. He may be washed-up, but the air yards are there on a consistent basis and the matchup is one of the best he’s seen this season.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, AJ Brown, Marquise Brown, Brandon Aiyuk, Jarvis Landry, Marvin Jones

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

Travis Kelce – See Mahomes’ write-up.
Mike Gesicki – With how much I love the Rams’ offense this week, I need to run it back with someone on the Dolphins. That someone is going to be Mike Gesicki. I’ve watched plenty of tape on this Rams’ linebacking core and they simply struggle with inside receivers and tight ends. Mike Gesicki is part slot receiver and part tight end.

I’m a bit nervous to see how Tua utilizes Gesicki, but I’m diving head first into rostering Gesicki on the other side of my Rams’ stacks. If I’m not fully stacking the Rams, I’ll have a lot one mini stacks of either Henderson or Kupp with Gesicki on the other side.
Hunter Henry – He’s simply too cheap for the expected target share. It was a weird week for Henry last week (as two backup tight ends scored touchdowns), but I have no problem going back to Hunter Henry who’s projected for 5 catches for 53 yards. If he can get into the end-zone, he’s going to be a smash value on Sunday afternoon.

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Darren Waller, Jonnu Smith, Noah Fant, Gerald Everett (if Higbee is out)

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 7 was an absolutely wild weekend full of insane scoring and all of the chalk players breaking the slate. I believe the NFL DFS Cash Game pay-lines on DraftKings were damn near 195 points! Wild times. Let’s get right to it for what should hopefully be a semi-normal week of DFS.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

Looks like the whole field is either going with Wilson or Garoppolo for cash. I’m leaning Garoppolo for the savings.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Keenan Allen all project for over 25% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
UPDATE: Denzel Mims is > 20% as well.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $8,700) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a banged up San Francisco defense who plays a lot of man-to-man (which should open up some rushing upside yet again for Wilson).
AETY Projection: 24.48 points
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) – Probably the best pay-down option on this slate as a whole. This is the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks (Seattle ranks 30th in passing defense DVOA)… the gamescript that likely leads the 49ers in an up-paced shootout, and Seattle’s defense is giving up an adjusted expected 350 passing yards per game. Yikes.
AETY Projection: 19.36 points

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) & Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $9,500) – You likely cannot roster both of the high-end studs in your cash game lineup, but you’re going to want at least one of them. At the moment, I’m leaning Henry on FanDuel and Kamara on DraftKings. It’s hard not to love them both for cash as they both have juicy matchups on the road.
Kamara AETY Projection: 22.70 DK / 19.56 FD
Henry AETY Projection: 21.75 DK / 20.79 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Hunt looks like he’s in another smash spot (Las Vegas is 29th in run defense DVOA) this week after a bit of a letdown in Week 7. I trust the AETY Model and I trust the new matchup rating tool; where Hunt and the Cleveland Browns rank #1 in overall run efficiency on this slate against the #2 run matchup with the Raiders (launching on the site soon).
AETY Projection: 23.16 DK / 21.58 FD
Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – Aaron Jones is out again, wheels up, Jamaal Williams. This price is still way too low for the starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. This game should be a Packers’ blowout with a lot of running the ball in the second half. Williams will hit 3x value again at this low price-point.
AETY Projection: 19.84 DK / 18.13 FD
Darrell Henderson ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – I wish he were a lot more active in the passing game, but Henderson grades out well this week as he’s entering the #1 ranked matchup for opposing running backs. Miami’s defense ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams grade out #1 in run offense DVOA. My only concern here is McVay getting cute with his timeshare backfield.

It’s probably best to use Henderson in GPPs, but he grades out as cash viable in my model.
AETY Projection: 13.25 DK / 12.43 FD
Value Running Back (TBD) – Keep an eye on this throughout the weekend. We currently have a few spots to watch for potential value running backs to pop up:
– Seattle (DeeJay Dallas)
– San Francisco (Hasty/Coleman)
– Denver (Melvin Gordon)

I’ll update this spot as soon as I have a better read on these situations.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, La’Mical Perine

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,800 DK / $9,100 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Davante Adams against Minnesota’s minor league secondary? No, no we don’t.
AETY Projection: 23.72 DK / 19.57 FD
Tyler Lockett ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD) & DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Your weekly edition of what Seahawk wideout do you want to play. They’re quite expensive this week and I prefer to stack them both in a NFL DFS GPP lineup, but it’s hard not to want to jam one of these guys in for your cash lineup.

I think the matchup is advantage Metcalf here who will most likely spend a lot of time burning Emmanuel Moseley in coverage all day long, but you can’t go wrong with Lockett either.

I don’t think you have to have one of these guys in your cash lineup if you make it a priority to get Adams.
Lockett AETY Projection: 19.51 DK / 16.34 FD
Metcalf AETY Projection: 19.60 DK / 16.67 FD
Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – No idea why DraftKings hasn’t raised his price yet. The dude is seeing over a 30% target share and should be priced near $7K in PPR formats like DraftKings. I don’t love this matchup for Keenan Allen at all this week, but he’s such a special route runner and everyone is going to roster Allen in NFL DFS Cash Games this week.

I’ll likely fade him in GPP lineups and eat the chalk in cash games.
AETY Projection: 17.74 DK / 14.26 FD
Tyler Boyd ($6,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – Same story as Keenan Allen except this is a matchup I want to take advantage of against slot cornerback Chris Jackson. The Titans absolutely bleed fantasy points to opposing slot receivers.

The Bengals o-line is in shambles, so we know Burrow is going to need to get the ball out quickly. Advantage Tyler Boyd. With or without the heavy winds, this game should shoot out and keep Boyd heavily involved all day long.
AETY Projection: 16.35 DK / 13.18 FD
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – With Deebo Samuel out, Aiyuk is the clear-cut #1 wideout for the 49ers. We will see a ton of Kittle and some Kendrick Bourne as well, but at ~20% ownership we likely need to ride with Aiyuk here for some exposure to this afternoon hammer of a shootout.

Seattle’s secondary is brutal and Aiyuk is a freak talent. I’m genuinely excited to see him shine in this matchup.
AETY Projection: 14.76 DK / 11.96 FD
Jarvis Landry ($5,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you’re not using Hunt, use Landry without Odell Beckham in the lineup for the rest of the season. We will pick on Lamarcus Joyner all year long.
AETY Projection: 14.01 DK / 11.19 FD
TY Hilton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Probably not a safe cash play, but the targets are coming in the boatloads for Hilton as of late. This is likely the lowest we will ever see his price. He’s currently sitting on most sportsbooks with a 4.5 catch prop for 50 yards.

That’s not quite going to get him to 2.5x value in NFL DFS cash games, but the AETY Model has Hilton for around 60 receiving yards this week against a brutal Detroit secondary.
AETY Projection: 12.88 DK / 10.42 FD

PUNTS – IF YOU NEED SOME PUNT PLAYS TO JAM IN TOP TIER CASH PLAYS, HERE’S A LIST OF GUYS I WOULD CONSIDER… DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THEM, YOU’RE JUST HOPING THEY CAN GET CLOSE TO 10 POINTS.

UPDATE: Denzel Mims ($3,200 DK / $4,900 FD) – Locking in Mims for my cash game lineups. He’s now projected for over 20% ownership. We don’t need much out of him to hit value. Use him and it opens up so much for your build.

Honorable Mention: Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, AJ Green, Justin Jefferson

Tight Ends

George Kittle ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – Expensive, but easily the best play for me at the tight end position in NFL DFS this weekend… especially if Jamal Adams misses this game (currently a game time decision).
AETY Projection: 17.93 DK / 14.87 FD
Darren Waller ($5,600 / $6,800 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. Load him up if you cannot afford Kittle. This matchup is sexy as hell against a banged up Cleveland defense in a game where there will be plenty of scoring and plenty of wind. The wind should not affect Waller whatsoever.

With his target share, he needs to be priced over $6K on DraftKings.
AETY Projection: 16.28 DK / 13.20 FD

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Travis Kelce

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Jamaal Williams
RB: Kareem Hunt
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Denzel Mims
TE: Darren Waller
FLEX: Myles Gaskin
DST: Detroit Lions

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ Week 7 AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets … It’s time to let her shine for Week 7. What a time to be alive. Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the ...

4 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

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NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Defense / Special Teams

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Running Backs

Wide Receivers

Tight Ends

Defense / Special Teams

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

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