NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown

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Week 7 was an absolutely wild weekend full of insane scoring and all of the chalk players breaking the slate. I believe the NFL DFS Cash Game pay-lines on DraftKings were damn near 195 points! Wild times. Let’s get right to it for what should hopefully be a semi-normal week of DFS.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

• High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
• VALUE PLAYS
• Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
• Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

• Looks like the whole field is either going with Wilson or Garoppolo for cash. I’m leaning Garoppolo for the savings.
• I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
• Chalk Report: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Keenan Allen all project for over 25% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
  UPDATE: Denzel Mims is > 20% as well.
• Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
• AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
• I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

1. Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $8,700) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a banged up San Francisco defense who plays a lot of man-to-man (which should open up some rushing upside yet again for Wilson).
   AETY Projection: 24.48 points
   
2. Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) – Probably the best pay-down option on this slate as a whole. This is the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks (Seattle ranks 30th in passing defense DVOA)… the gamescript that likely leads the 49ers in an up-paced shootout, and Seattle’s defense is giving up an adjusted expected 350 passing yards per game. Yikes.
   AETY Projection: 19.36 points
   
   Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

1. Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) & Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $9,500) – You likely cannot roster both of the high-end studs in your cash game lineup, but you’re going to want at least one of them. At the moment, I’m leaning Henry on FanDuel and Kamara on DraftKings. It’s hard not to love them both for cash as they both have juicy matchups on the road.
   Kamara AETY Projection: 22.70 DK / 19.56 FD
   Henry AETY Projection: 21.75 DK / 20.79 FD
   
2. Kareem Hunt ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Hunt looks like he’s in another smash spot (Las Vegas is 29th in run defense DVOA) this week after a bit of a letdown in Week 7. I trust the AETY Model and I trust the new matchup rating tool; where Hunt and the Cleveland Browns rank #1 in overall run efficiency on this slate against the #2 run matchup with the Raiders (launching on the site soon).
   AETY Projection: 23.16 DK / 21.58 FD
   
3. Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – Aaron Jones is out again, wheels up, Jamaal Williams. This price is still way too low for the starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. This game should be a Packers’ blowout with a lot of running the ball in the second half. Williams will hit 3x value again at this low price-point.
   AETY Projection: 19.84 DK / 18.13 FD
   
4. Darrell Henderson ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – I wish he were a lot more active in the passing game, but Henderson grades out well this week as he’s entering the #1 ranked matchup for opposing running backs. Miami’s defense ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams grade out #1 in run offense DVOA. My only concern here is McVay getting cute with his timeshare backfield.
   
   It’s probably best to use Henderson in GPPs, but he grades out as cash viable in my model.
   AETY Projection: 13.25 DK / 12.43 FD
   
5. Value Running Back (TBD) – Keep an eye on this throughout the weekend. We currently have a few spots to watch for potential value running backs to pop up:
   – Seattle (DeeJay Dallas)
   – San Francisco (Hasty/Coleman)
   – Denver (Melvin Gordon)
   
   I’ll update this spot as soon as I have a better read on these situations.
   
   Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, La’Mical Perine

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams ($8,800 DK / $9,100 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Davante Adams against Minnesota’s minor league secondary? No, no we don’t.
   AETY Projection: 23.72 DK / 19.57 FD
   
2. Tyler Lockett ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD) & DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Your weekly edition of what Seahawk wideout do you want to play. They’re quite expensive this week and I prefer to stack them both in a NFL DFS GPP lineup, but it’s hard not to want to jam one of these guys in for your cash lineup.
   
   I think the matchup is advantage Metcalf here who will most likely spend a lot of time burning Emmanuel Moseley in coverage all day long, but you can’t go wrong with Lockett either.
   
   I don’t think you have to have one of these guys in your cash lineup if you make it a priority to get Adams.
   Lockett AETY Projection: 19.51 DK / 16.34 FD
   Metcalf AETY Projection: 19.60 DK / 16.67 FD
   
3. Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – No idea why DraftKings hasn’t raised his price yet. The dude is seeing over a 30% target share and should be priced near $7K in PPR formats like DraftKings. I don’t love this matchup for Keenan Allen at all this week, but he’s such a special route runner and everyone is going to roster Allen in NFL DFS Cash Games this week.
   
   I’ll likely fade him in GPP lineups and eat the chalk in cash games.
   AETY Projection: 17.74 DK / 14.26 FD
   
4. Tyler Boyd ($6,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – Same story as Keenan Allen except this is a matchup I want to take advantage of against slot cornerback Chris Jackson. The Titans absolutely bleed fantasy points to opposing slot receivers.
   
   The Bengals o-line is in shambles, so we know Burrow is going to need to get the ball out quickly. Advantage Tyler Boyd. With or without the heavy winds, this game should shoot out and keep Boyd heavily involved all day long.
   AETY Projection: 16.35 DK / 13.18 FD
   
5. Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – With Deebo Samuel out, Aiyuk is the clear-cut #1 wideout for the 49ers. We will see a ton of Kittle and some Kendrick Bourne as well, but at ~20% ownership we likely need to ride with Aiyuk here for some exposure to this afternoon hammer of a shootout.
   
   Seattle’s secondary is brutal and Aiyuk is a freak talent. I’m genuinely excited to see him shine in this matchup.
   AETY Projection: 14.76 DK / 11.96 FD
   
6. Jarvis Landry ($5,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you’re not using Hunt, use Landry without Odell Beckham in the lineup for the rest of the season. We will pick on Lamarcus Joyner all year long.
   AETY Projection: 14.01 DK / 11.19 FD
   
7. TY Hilton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Probably not a safe cash play, but the targets are coming in the boatloads for Hilton as of late. This is likely the lowest we will ever see his price. He’s currently sitting on most sportsbooks with a 4.5 catch prop for 50 yards.
   
   That’s not quite going to get him to 2.5x value in NFL DFS cash games, but the AETY Model has Hilton for around 60 receiving yards this week against a brutal Detroit secondary.
   AETY Projection: 12.88 DK / 10.42 FD
   
   PUNTS – IF YOU NEED SOME PUNT PLAYS TO JAM IN TOP TIER CASH PLAYS, HERE’S A LIST OF GUYS I WOULD CONSIDER… DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THEM, YOU’RE JUST HOPING THEY CAN GET CLOSE TO 10 POINTS.
   
   UPDATE: Denzel Mims ($3,200 DK / $4,900 FD) – Locking in Mims for my cash game lineups. He’s now projected for over 20% ownership. We don’t need much out of him to hit value. Use him and it opens up so much for your build.
   
   Honorable Mention: Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, AJ Green, Justin Jefferson

Tight Ends

1. George Kittle ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – Expensive, but easily the best play for me at the tight end position in NFL DFS this weekend… especially if Jamal Adams misses this game (currently a game time decision).
   AETY Projection: 17.93 DK / 14.87 FD
   
2. Darren Waller ($5,600 / $6,800 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. Load him up if you cannot afford Kittle. This matchup is sexy as hell against a banged up Cleveland defense in a game where there will be plenty of scoring and plenty of wind. The wind should not affect Waller whatsoever.
   
   With his target share, he needs to be priced over $6K on DraftKings.
   AETY Projection: 16.28 DK / 13.20 FD
   
   Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Travis Kelce

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS Cash Games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

1. Kansas City Chiefs
2. New Orleans Saints
3. Baltimore Ravens
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Chicago Bears
6. Detroit Lions

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Jamaal Williams
RB: Kareem Hunt
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Denzel Mims
TE: Darren Waller
FLEX: Myles Gaskin
DST: Detroit Lions