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St. Louis Cardinals

10/4 DFS MLB Picks: Four on the Floor

5 years ago

written by

Today’s four-game playoff slate means the 10/4 DFS MLB Hitting Picks can go back to basics with a full lineup.

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10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Catcher

Robinson Chirinos, HOU vs. TB

DK ($3,600), FD ($2,800)

Chirinos is devastating at Minute Maid Park, evidenced by a .915 OPS with 10 of his 14 homers coming in front of the H-Town faithful. He does have a homer among his four hits in 15 at-bats this season against the Rays. You do have to like his 39.5% hard contact rate and a similar 39.5% fly ball rate. He’s the best overall play among 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks behind the plate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — First Baseman

C.J. Cron, MIN at NYY

DK ($3,600), FD ($3,100)

A value pick with good reason: Cron has six hits in 18 career at-bats against New York starter James Paxton. Two of those hits were homers, giving Cron a 1.017 OPS against the Pinstripes southpaw. Cron was able to cut his strikeout rate to 21.4% this season and maintained a solid fly ball rate (36.3%) while taking his hard contact rate from 39.6% last season to 41.1% this year.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Second Baseman

Kolten Wong, STL at ATL

DK ($3,800), FD ($2,600)

Like Cron, I’m looking for past success against today’s starters. Enter Wong, who has a homer and a stolen base in 11 career at-bats versus Braves starter Mike Foltynewicz, producing a 1.625 OPS in the process. Wong went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a walk in Thursday’s Game 1 victory. That’s a tremendous way to shake off a sluggish September that saw Wong offer up a .735 OPS despite hitting .290. The free pass is encouraging since Wong had a mere .315 OBP in September that put a scratch on a Post All-Star break OBP of .409.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Third Baseman

Miguel Sano, MIN at NYY

DK ($4,900), FD ($3,800)

Sano gives the Twins another hammer that has nailed James Paxton in the past. In 11 career at-bats versus Paxton, Sano has four hits that include a homer that helped boost his OPS to 1.326 against Paxton. A strong second half OBP of .362 was helped in part of Sano improving his walk rate to 12.5%. His HR/FB rate of 36.6% is downright frightening in homer-friendly Yankee Stadium. More frightening is Sano’s 52.7% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Shortstop

Trea Turner, WAS at LAD

DK ($4,600), FD ($4,200)

Turner admitted to “trying too hard” on Thursday night, so let’s take him at his word. He’ll need a different approach against Dodgers starter Clayton Kershaw, even though he has three hits in 10 at-bats against him. One way Turner could achieve that would be resuming his more aggressive ways on the road when it comes to baserunning. Of his 35 steals, 20 have come in enemy territory. He has a .444 slugging percentage against southpaws, compared to .512 versus righties, so look for him to more contact-oriented.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. TB

DK ($4,800), FD ($4,000)

The Rays were not exempt from Alvarez’s tour of destruction, as Tampa Bay hurlers allowed a pair of homers and a double to him in 11 at-bats. Alvarez’s best work came at Minute Maid Park, where he sported an 1.140 OPS built on a slash line of .349/.441/.699. Rays starter Tyler Glasnow allowed just one homer in 97 at-bats versus left-handed hitters. Facing a slugger with a 51.1% hard contact rate, Glasnow could see that number increase by at least one.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Marcell Ozuna, STL at ATL

DK ($4,100), FD ($3,600)

Ozuna has a pair of homers off Braves hurler Mike Foltynewicz, who was shelled by the Cardinals this season for nine runs (eight earned) and 12 hits over 10.2 innings for a robust 6.79 ERA. Ozuna doubled twice, drove in a pair of runs and scored once on Thursday, making us all forget his .143 average against Atlanta pitching this season. Ozuna’s .243 batting average and .259 BABIP also make you forget his career-best 48.1% hard contact rate and the fact his 2018 BABIP was exactly 50 points higher.

10/4 DFS Hitting Picks — Outfielder

Aaron Judge, NYY vs. MIN

DK ($4,700), FD ($4,400)

Although he failed to record a homer against them this season, Judge did hit .462 (6-for-13) against Twins pitching, making him a good 10/4 DFS Hitting Picks play. He also comes into the postseason with the momentum of an 1.109 OPS with four homers over the past two weeks and an equally imposing .948 OPS under the lights. Judge also has three hits in five career at-bats versus Twins starter Jose Berrios, while his late season surge boosted his Isolated Power to .267. Ignore the 31.5% strikeout rate, and Judge offers you a hitter with a .360 BABIP and an intimidating 53.8% hard contact rate.

10/4 DFS Hitting Stacks

10/4 Hitting Stack of the Day: St. Louis Cardinals: Wong and Ozuna should be paired with Paul DeJong ($3100 FD), who has a homer and a 1.064 OPS versus Foltynewicz, along with Matt Carpenter ($4100 DK), who also sports a career dinger off the Braves’ Game 2 starter.

10/4 DFS Showdown

Using the FanDuel template, it’s 2x the points for MVP, 1.5x the points for All-Star and regular production for the three Utility spots. October is filled with unsung efforts, something to keep in mind when filling out the Utility roles. Look for players who’ve had success this season against a particular team, along with taking a gander of recent production. I’m a strong believer in OPS, more so if a strong OPS is bolstered with stolen bases.

My MVP plays for Showdown:

Tampa Bay at Houston: Yordan Alvarez, HOU, OF, $8,000 Salary

St. Louis at Atlanta: Paul Goldschmidt, STL, 1B, $8,500 Salary

Minnesota at NY Yankees: Gleyber Torres, NYY, 2B, $6,500 Salary

Washington at LA Dodgers: Cody Bellinger, LAD, OF, $9,500 Salary

10/4 DFS Pitching Picks

Justin Verlander, HOU vs. TB

DK ($10,700), FD ($11,200)

No shock here, as he is projected to deliver 45.03 points at FanDuel and 26.03 points at DraftKings. Verlander has produced 15 straight starts of at least 30 points at FD, hitting above 50 points nine times in the same span. The 12.11 K/9 rate assures DFSers of plenty of whiffs, and while the 1.45 HR/9 rate raises the eyebrows a wee, Verlander has been able to keep most them solo blasts.

Jack Flaherty, STL at ATL

DK ($8,200), FD ($10,500)

You could save some salary and run with Flaherty over Verlander. In his one start versus the Braves this season, Flaherty allowed one hit and struck out 11 over seven innings. His 0.91 ERA and .142 OBA after the All-Star break was overshadowed by a host of hitting performances and the “can you top this?” clash between Verlander and Astros teammate Gerrit Cole, but Flaherty’s 124 strikeouts over 99.1 post-ASB frames were anything but a fluke.

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. WAS

DK ($9,300), FD ($10,300)

Only Kershaw can post a 2.95 ERA and fan nearly 10 batters per nine innings post-ASB and still have people wondering about his effectiveness. The home run rate (1.41) was a career-high, and the 2.07 BB/9 was his highest since 2012. Name recognition will make his usage rate climb, yet Kershaw presents something of a bargain compared to the two hurlers above him.

Stephen Strasburg, WAS at LAD

DK ($9,600), FD ($10,100)

He’s good to go after throwing 34 pitches in relief on Tuesday, allowing just two hits and fanning four. Strasburg could be overlooked by some, yet he did strike out 16 and allowed only three earned runs in 16 innings against the Dodgers this season, sporting a 2.08 ERA.

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5 years ago 0 comment

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: MLB & NHL Friday!

MLBMovingAvg 5 years ago

written by MLBMovingAvg

Cash with the Flash had another winning day on Thursday, and it would have been better had it not been for the Atlanta Braves bullpen blowing the two-game lead they were entrusted with and wound up losing the game last night. Otherwise, Cash with the Flash Best Bets would have posted a back to back ...

5 years ago 0 comment

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Cash with the Flash Best Bets: MLB & NHL Thursday!

5 years ago

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Cash with theFlash Best Bets is back for another day of helping you win more money at the windowdaily. Sometimes we publish twice daily and today is one of those days where Cashwith the Flash Best Bets will have two posts creating more opportunitiesfor you to Cash with the Flash.Yesterday Cashwith t...

5 years ago 0 comment

Daily Fantasy Sports MLB

9/10 DFS Hitting Picks and Stacks: The Cards in Coors

jason mezrahi 5 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

It’s tasty Tuesday, and I’m feeling hungry for more action in some GPPs in 9/10 DFS. Let’s fill our plates with some prime MLB DFS hitting picks and satiating stacks for the massive 14-game 7:05 main slate, focusing on what promises to be a run-happy Coors game, a team from the West Coast arriving in a hitter’s paradise, and another sneaky stack or two in good matchups and park upgrades.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks of the Day

St. Louis Cardinals at Chi Chi Rodriguez

The Redbirds have the highest implied total on the slate at 7+ runs and should have no problems hitting the weak offerings of Chi Chi Rodriguez into the cavernous, expansive gaps in the Coors power alleys. A full stack is in order here, with ample shares of the Cards’ 1-5 hitters – Dexter Fowler (DK $4,500, FD $3,600), Kolten Wong (DK $4,800, FD $3,500), Paul Goldchmidt (DK $5,100, FD $4,300), Marcel Ozuna (DK $5,300, FD $4,100), and Paul DeJong (DK $4,800, FD $3,900), and a few combinations that include Yadier Molina (DK $4,300, FD $3,400), Tommy Edman (DK $5,400, FD $3,300) and value option Harrison Bader (DK $3,900, FD $3,000).

Los Angeles Dodgers at Ty Blach

When the Dodgers have faced Blach in the past, it’s been in San Diego or LA, but now they get the scuffling lefthander in Baltimore, where the balls jump out of the park in droves. Blach’s currently sporting a 10.95 ERA and 2.15 WHIP over 24.2 IP in the majors this season, and his minor league numbers are just as pathetic. There are several possible mixtures of the usual 1-5 hitters but A.J. Pollock (DK $4,700, FD $3,800), who has a .401 xwOBA versus LHPs since 2018, David Freese (who’s $5,400 on DK but just $2,700 on FD) and Kiké Hernandez (DK $4,000, FD $2,600) look like good targets to build from and add Cody Bellinger and/or Justin Turner (DTD).

Colorado Rockies at Michael Wacha

The Rockies have been in a hellish 3-17 nosedive in their past 20 games, but a return to Coors is just what they need to liven up that lumber and score some runs. They may not notch a win against the Cards, but the bats of Nolan Arenado (DK $5,300, FD $4,600), Trevor Story (DK $5,400, FD $4,500) and Charlie Blackmon (DK $5,500, FD $4,500) make for an appealing mini-stack if you can afford them. Wacha has an xwOBA approaching the .400 mark over the past two seasons, and the Rockies have the second highest implied total of the slate at over 6 runs.

9/10 DFS Hitting Stacks to Consider

Houston Astros at Tanner Roark

Minnesota Twins vs. Anibal Sanchez

9/10 DFS Hitting Catcher

J.T. Realmuto, PHI vs. ATL

DK ($4,900) FD ($3,800)

I love Realmuto at home against LHPs, and I professed as much in my firstpiece for WinDailySports.com. We’re going back to the well with the Phillies catcher facingMax Fried, who’s not as good against RHBs (.373 xwOBA since 2018). Realmuto’sbeen raking since the start of September and makes for a solid backstop andone-off to differentiate your lineups.

9/10 DFS Hitting First Baseman

Paul Goldschmidt, STL at COL

DK ($5,100) FD ($4,300)

I mentioned him in my Cards stack above, but I’m including himhere to reiterate that I’ll be having close to 100 percent exposure to Goldy inthis matchup. The veteran first baseman has a .327/.415/.608 career slash with15 homers in 289 Coors field plate appearances, so he’s tops on my list andisn’t nearly as expensive as he should be.

9/10 DFS Hitting Second Baseman

Nick Solak, TEX vs. TB

DK ($3,900) FD ($3,300)

Solak has made an immediate impression in DFS with a.328/.449/.500 slash in his first 19 games in the bigs, with a .320 ISO vs.LHPs. He’s going to be low-owned facing the capable Ryan Yarbrough, comes at adiscount, and bats fourth in a hitter’s park. There’s plenty to like if you’relooking for value component with some positional flexibility (2B/3B on DK) thatoffers ample upside.

9/10 DFS Hitting Third Baseman

Rafael Devers, BOS at TOR

DK ($5,200) FD ($3,800)

Devers absolutely crushes Toronto pitching, and since we don’t know how long T.J. Zeuch will toe the slab on Tuesday, he’s a fine option no matter who’s on the hill. In 15 games against the Jays (59 AB) he’s slashing .441/.484/.915 with 8 homers and just 7 Ks. He’s expensive, but he should command less ownership than Nolan Arenado at the hot corner and offers a high-upside pivot from the Coors game

9/10 DFS Hitting Shortstop

Paul DeJong, STL at COL

DK ($4,800) FD ($3,900)

Like the other Paul on this team, I’m having a hard timeclicking on any other name at his respective position. Trevor Story is obviouslyan option, but DeJong’s a little more affordable and has just as much upside ina larger implied total. He’s only played a couple games in Coors, but he has ahomer, sports a .411 road xwOBA over his past couple seasons, and shouldn’thave trouble with Chi Chi or the Rockies bullpen.

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9/10 DFS Hitting Outfielders

A.J. Pollock, LAD at BAL

DK ($4,700) FD ($3,800)

We’rea few games removed from Pollock’s 3-HR day, but if there’s a spot to jump onboard, it’s now. He’s hitless in his last two games but gets a massive parkupgrade and shouldn’t be as highly owned as the Cards OF and some of the biggername bats. Dodgers OF Chris Taylor (DK $4,400, FD $2,800) could be the pivot ifyou’re looking to fit some different Dodgers bats and need some savings.

Ronald Acuna, Jr., ATL at PHI

DK ($5,200) FD ($4,000)

Acuna led off last night’s game with a homer and now has 38 round trippers on the season. He’s fared well against the Phillies this season with a .333/.452/.529 slash – and he’s got a massive .487 xwOBA and .279 ISO vs. LHPs. Jason Vargas has pitched well this season, but he’s benefited from a low BABIP (.266) and has given up 15 HRs to RHBs.

Dexter Fowler, STL at COL

DK ($4,500) FD ($3,600)

Grabbing the leadoff hitter in any stack is always a smart move, andwhile Fowler doesn’t offer the same raw power as the other Cards bats, he’scertainly got the bat skills to rope some doubles and triples in Coors Field, wherehe began his Major League career. The numbers in that venue are staggering(.300/.397/.492 with 67 doubles, 35 triples and 29 HR in 342 games, 290 of whichhe started).

Additional options:

C: Yadier Molina, Austin Hedges (DK $2,600)

1B: Eric Thames (FD $2,700), Ryan O’Hearn (DK $3,400, FD $2,400)

2B: Kiké Hernandez (FD), Kolten Wong

3B: UPDATED (Gyorko NOT STARTING today) Yoan Moncada, Travis Shaw (value)

SS: Manny Machado (DK $4,000, FD $3,500), Jean Segura (DK$4,000, FD $3,000)

OF: Nick Castellanos (DK $4,500), Phillip Ervin (DK $3,200), Trent Grisham (DK $3,100), Yordan Alvarez (FD $4,200), Cody Bellinger, Austin Meadows

5 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting Premium

Cash with the Flash Best Bets: Bad NCAA Beats

5 years ago

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Cash withthe Flash Best Bets had a rough day with a couple of bad beats yesterday. Wesuggested you lay 12.5 points and play Boise State to defeat Marshall and wealso suggested taking 18.5 points and playing Rice to cover at home againstGeorgia Tech. Boise Statewon the football game by seven points a...

5 years ago 0 comment

Sports Betting Premium

MLB Betting Guide: Monday, August 26, 2019

5 years ago

written by

We’re back on the grind and have seven MLB games on the Monday slate. I won’t be looking at all of them, but I do think we can make some good investments with a couple of MLB games. We’ll belooking at these investments in terms of “units”. If you aren’t familiar withthis method, think of units as ca...

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

GPP Stacks: MLB Winning Edge for August 25

5 years ago

written by

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s 11-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you stay up to date with all our favorite plays on our DFS Cheat Sheet as well.

Teams with Highest IRT

GPP Stack: Houston Astros

vs.RHP Jamie Barria (LAA): 6.25 Runs

**Low Risk

GPP Stack: Cleveland Indians

vs. LHP Eric Skoglund (KCR): 6.20 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Jose Ramirez is out on injury and I’m not particularly crazy about this team without him.

Preferred Stack: Carlos Santana ($4000 FD|$5400 DK), Francisco Lindor ($4300 FD|$5200 DK), Franmil Reyes ($2500 FD|$3800 DK), and Yasiel Puig ($3300 FD|4400 DK).

Other Teams I Have Interest in

GPP Stack: Atlanta Braves**

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves are six games up on the Nationals for the top seed and they’re going to need to keep their foot on the gas here. Matz is allowing a measley slash line of .260 wOBA, .353 SLG, and .268 OBP in the second half of the season. He has performed well in his last 10 starts but he has to come back down to earth at some point. The Braves are certainly risky here but there are a few guy’s in the lineup who hit lefties well and we will likely get pretty low ownership here with everyone chasing that watered down Cleveland squad.

GPP Stack: Minnesota Twins

vs. LHP Matt Boyd (DET): UPDATE

**Moderate Risk

Man, this is a tough one. On one side you have one of the best hitting teams in baseball slashing a ridiculous .345 ISO and 193 WRC+ to lefties over the last two weeks. On the other side you have Matthew Boyd who has had his ups and downs but he has been solid on the road, only allowing righties to slash .276 wOBA, .372 SLG, and .276 OBP. My thought is that Boyd is going to get rocked. You can make an argument to throw Boyd out there in GPP’s but this Twins lineup is just hitting way too good right now and Boyd’s inconsistencies like to rear their ugly head every other game.

GPP Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Anthonio Senzatela (COL): 5.10 Runs

**Moderate Risk

Preferred Plays: Marcell Ozuna ($3700 FD|$5000 DK), Paul Goldschmidt ($3500 FD|$4200 DK), and Dexter Fowler ($3200 FD|$4000 DK). Matt Carpenter ($2700 FD|$3700 DK) If you’re looking for four man stack I like him for the platoon advantage.

GPP Stack: Washington Nationals

vs. LHP Cole Hamels (CHC): 5.10 Runs

GPP Stack: Colorado Rockies**

vs. RHP Michael Wacha (STL): 5.10 Runs

**Low Risk

Michael Wacha is just a terrible pitcher and even though the Rockies aren’t a great hitting team on the road I still like the matchup here and I will ignore road slash lines for Colorado. This team and Atlanta are my sneaky picks for the day.

Preferred Plays: Charlie Blackmon ($2600 FD|$5300 DK), Nolan Arenado ($4100 FD|$4900 DK), Trevor Story ($3800 FD|$5300 DK), and Ryan McMahon ($3200 FD|$4400 DK).

Pitching

Shane Bieber RHP (CLE): 2.50 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 3.25 Runs
Dylan Bundy RHP (BAL): 5.40 Runs
Brock Burke RHP (TEX): 4.80 Runs

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Stacks: Winning Edge for August 14

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This report will provide recommended DFS stack options for today’s six-game main slate. I will also include my favorite pitching picks.

**All plays are listed in order of preference. Please check back between 5-6 PM EST as some players can receive rest days or get limited at bats especially as we get closer to the postseason. Make sure you are watching the weather as well.

MLB DFS Stack: Seattle Mariners

vs. RHP Edwin Jackson (DET): 5.50 Runs

**Low Risk

It’s been awhile since I’ve been able to go after our favorite fantasy pitcher, Edwin Jackson. He has been downright bad this season, owning a 9.35 ERA, 8.23 FIP, and 5.69 SIERA. He is pitching for the worst team in baseball. The Tigers have a run differential of -233 so I can see this one getting out of hand quickly. Detroit also ranks 27th in terms of bullpen efficiency, so when Jackson comes out I expect the runs to continue to pour. The Mariners are not at their best, slashing to a .295 wOBA, .123 ISO, and 86 WRC+. Despite the poor hitting averages, the Mariners are poised to break out of their hitting slump with a gravy starting pitcher and bullpen matchup.

MLB DFS Stack: Atlanta Braves

vs. LHP Steven Matz (NYM): 5.50 Runs

**Moderate Risk

The Braves will likely draw a nice chunk of ownership as they have been hitting well over the last month and it is a pretty small slate. They are slashing to a .331 wOBA, .181 ISO, and 101 WRC+. Steven Matz is on the mound and has massive struggles away from home, allowing hitters to slash to a .381 wOBA, .573 SLG, and .362 OBP. He has allowed 42 earned runs and 16 home runs in 55 innings pitched during that span. He owns a 4.49 ERA, 4.72 FIP, and 4.46 SIERA. His 47% GB rate coupled with a .315 BABIP should set the Braves up nicely for some extra base hits tonight.

Other Teams I Like

MLB DFS Stack: St. Louis Cardinals

vs. RHP Brad Keller (KCR): 5.30 Runs

**Moderate/High Risk

MLB Stack: Los Angeles Dodgers

vs. RHP Elieser Hernandez (MIA): 5.25 Runs

**Low Risk

Preferred Plays: Max Muncy ($3700 FD|$5100 DK), Cody Bellinger ($4600 FD|$5500 DK), Joc Pederson ($3200 FD|$4500 DK), and Corey Seager ($3300 FD|$4100 DK).

Pitching

Clayton Kershaw LHP (LAD): 2.70 Runs
Marco Gonzales LHP (SEA): 4.40 Runs
Aaron Nola RHP (PHI): 4.45 Runs

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 28

Daniel Wehr 5 years ago

written by Daniel Wehr

This Sunday July 28th slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Bats: Houston Astros and Home Run Hunting

Position Rankings and Values

Check out our Data Driven Projections for FanDuel Hitters for Premium Gold Members.

Catcher: Travis D’Arnaud ($3,200 FD; $4,300 DK) Travis is batting cleanup vs Aaron Sanchez and his 6.06 ERA. Sanchez gives up multiple run games on the regular. In June he gave up at least FOUR runs in EVERY SINGLE ONE of his starts. To say he is struggling would be an understatement. D’Arnaud is batting .316/.409 OBP/.684 SLG in July and is locked in. I feel comfortable with him continuing his dominant month, especially at $3,200.

Catcher Value: Ryan Lavarnway ($2,400 FD; $4,000 DK) I am just hoping he starts. He is batting a ridiculous .667 ISO/ .628 wOBA (small sample size) vs right handed pitching this season with two home runs in only 12 AB’s. He faces Peter Lambert (5.93 ERA, 1.46 WHIP) who has never once pitched in a MLB game without giving up a run. Lambert is actually averaging over a hit per inning. Yes, half of his starts are at Coors Field’s poor pitching environment however he is still getting hit on the road. Lavarnway is your value Red, and yes I do like as a stack. How could you not vs Lambert?

First Base Stud: Paul Goldschmidt ($4,100 FD; $4,400 DK) I like the pitching matchups better for the Gurriel and Abreu (listed below) but Goldy is HOT. Last night he tied the franchise record home run streak. He will no doubt be trying to break it, in his first year as a Cardinal, today. The last sevens days he is batting .338/.385 OBP/.958 SLG with six home runs.

First Base Value Jose Abreu ($3,500 FD; $4,000 DK) is pretty much boom or bust. I see myself paying up at the position but if I am forced to pay down a bit I would play Abreu. He is batting .328 ISO/ .328 wOBA and if he (or Moncada) aren’t hitting than the White Sox don’t have a chance. Opposing pitcher Kyle Gibson is decent, and may even be someone to consider rostering because the overall lack of depth of the Chicago White Sox and his price ($7,200), but he does have a 4.24 ERA and he has given up a home run in every game in July except one. If anyone on the White Sox is going to do it, it’s Abreu or Moncada.

First Base Honorable Mention: Yuli Gurriel ($3,700 FD, $4,500 DK) I expect Astros to put up runs today (See Altuve below) and trying to pick out which of the studs go off on a daily basis is difficult. I would be happy to play him in my Houston stacks.

Second Base: Jose Altuve ($4,100 FD; $4,500 DK) I expect the Houston Astros to tee off on Dakota Hudson. Hudson has given up seven homers in his last six starts and now gets the lethal Astros. I love the Astros stack and if they are scoring, Altuve is contributing. Altuve is batting .349/.379 OBP/.614 SLB in July with a .231 ISO on the season.

Second Base Value: Aledmys Diaz ($2,800 FD) Batting .219 ISO/ .338 wOBA with the Houston platoon advantage. Batting seventh, it helps that I like every single Astro in front of him to help load the bases and beat up on the pitcher.

Shortstop Stud Jorge Polanco ($3,700 FD; $4,900 DK) is batting .242 ISO/.405 wOBA on the season. Last night the Twins got shut down but this lineup is too talented to let that happen twin in a row. Dylan Covey (R) is on the mound, and while I do respect Covey’s strike out ability he carries a 6.04 ERA with a 1.15 WHIP. Once the Twins get going, they usually don’t stop. I will go back to their big bats today.

Short Stop Value Carlos Correa ($3,600 FD; $4,300 DK) is back, is hitting (finally) and is priced too low for his skill set. The Astros are going to score vs Dakota Hudson (see Jose Altuve Above) and Correa is batting fifth behind Spinger, Altuve, Bregman, Alvarez with Gurriel hitting behind him. That is going to be a MAJOR issue for Hudson. Correa has a safe floor and upside. I expect him to be priced close to $4,000 in a couple weeks. He is batting .273/.355 OPB/.503 SLG in July.

Third Base Base: Eugenio Suarez ($3,700 FD; $5,300 DK) may have my vote for July MVP. He has 11 home runs and since the beginning of the month and is batting .421 in the last seven days. I believe in hot streaks. I also believe in hitting home runs off of Peter Lambert (see Lavarnway above). Eugenio is my HR lock of the day.

Third Base Value: Tommy Edeman ($2,900 FD; $4,100 DK) is batting lead vs lefty Wade Miley (3.81 ERA). I don’t necessarily love targeting Miley, as he has been much better this year, but the Cardinals prices are making it easier for me to give it a shot. He has a .200 ISO/.303 wOBA vs lefties with one home run in 29 AB’s. At $2,900 I will be happy with double digit fantasy points which a run, RBI and double can do. I believe he hits value but would much rather pay up for Suarez.

Outfield Stud: Nelson Cruz ($4,400 FD; $5,800 DK) put up only three points last night. It hurt. So now what do we do? Should we fade him because we don’t want our hearts broken again? Nope. He is still slugging a ridiculous .414/.484 OBP/.1.241 SLG/1.726 OPS in the last seven days. The opposing arm Dylan Covey does have some strike out capability, sure, but he is not elite. Nelson Cruz is a seasoned vet and can homer off anyone, and I like him to make a hater out of the faders today.

Outfield MidRange: Tommy Pham ($3,800 FD; $4,400 DK) is on a five game hitting streak, batting second and facing Aaron Sanchez. I mentioned earlier (with D’Arnaud) just how prone Sanchez is to giving up runs. Pham can contribute in every scoring category in MLB DFS which is what we want. He hits, steals, scores and of course and get RBI’s. Pham is batting .204 ISO/. 352 wOBA on the season.

Outfield Value: Jose Martinez ($2,600 FD; $3,700 DK) is just as capable of taking Wade Miley deep today as Paul Goldschmidt is and cost significantly less. I don’t know that I am stacking Cardinals but I like them as one offs or mini stacks. He is batting .345 ISO/ 472 wOBA vs lefties this season with five home runs in 55 AB’s. Martinez has six hits in the last five games and at $2,600 a couple hits will suffice, but the upside for an 18 point home run is great.

Notes: I love all of the Houston Astro Outfielders but they are ALL $4,000 or higher on FanDuel. I could have easily wrote them up but it would be very difficult to get them all on one team.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The MLB DFS Hitting Picks Of Destiny For July 21

5 years ago

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This Sunday July 21st slate is all about landing the right bats. Follow my stud and value plays and lock in the MLB DFS Picks of Destiny.

MLB DFS Stacks: Red Sox Roll; and the Indian’s find a Spark.

Sunday Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs Asher Wojciechowski (R)

The Red Sox are an obvious play here. They have the highest implied team total on the slate (7.5) and just exploded last night for 17 runs. While I don’t expect them to duplicate last nights performance, I will be happy with half. They are rolling, and there is no reason to jump off the train now. The usual suspects are in play.

Devers .262 ISO, .426 WOBA (4,500 FD, 5,500 DK); Xander .246 ISO, .414 WOBA (4,200 FD, 5,600 DK); Betts .231 ISO, .406 WOBA (4,400 FD, 5,400 DK); Vazquez .205 ISO, 348 WOBA (2,700 FD, 4,500 DK); JD .176 ISO, .343 WOBA (3,800 FD, 4,500 DK). Deeper analysis for all my favorite players can be found in my position rankings below.

Cleveland Indians vs Glenn Sparkman (R)

The last outing Glenn Sparkman pitched a gem, which should lower the Indians ownership. The three games combined before that he got bombarded for a combined 17 earned runs by WAS, TOR and CLE. The Indians got shut out at home last night and for a team with World Series aspirations I think they put up plenty of runs to ensure the W in a nice bounce back spot.

Lindor .243 ISO, .380 WOBA ($4,000 FD, $5,100 DK); Santana .286 ISO, .410 WOBA ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK); Perez .225 ISO, .325 WOBA ($2,600 FD; $4,100 DK); Naquin .199 ISO, .356 WOBA ($3,300 FD, $4,400 DK); Mercado .164 ISO, .256 WOBA ($3,600 FD, $5,300 DK)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Anthony DeSciafani (R)

I am purposefully trying to find lower owned stacks and this fits the bill. Paul DeJong is thriving lately, Paul Goldschmidt is priced way to low on FD, Tyler O’Neil carries a whopping .405 WOBA hitting clean-up and Tommy Edman is batting lead scoring double digits in four games in a row. They also are in a positive hitting environment vs an arm they are very familiar with in DeSclafani. I like it.

Paul DeJong ($3,600 FD, $4,200 DK); Paul Goldschmidt ($3,300 FD, $4,100 DK); Tyler O’Neil ($2,800 FD, $4,400 DK); Tommy Edman ($2,900 FD, $4,300 DK) See below for further analysis on each player.

Position Rankings and Values

Catcher: Mitch Garver ($3,500 FD, $5,400 DK) This is being written before the lineup drops buts let’s cross our fingers and hope we wake tomorrow with Garver leading off again. He boasts a .300 IS0 and .381 WOBA vs righties. He is also hot with three homers in his last four games. If the Twins have faith in him to lead off and start breaking down Daniel Mengden, I do too. It worked last night right?

Catcher Value: Ryan Lavarnaway ($2,000 FD, $3,800 DK) Here is a tip.. go look at his last (and only) MLB box score and you tell me if you think he is worth playing at min price on FanDuel. Spoiler alert: He had two homeruns, one double, six RBI’s and one walk. Obviously he is not going to put up 63.6 FD points again in only his second game, but he is going to get you something for that price. This is pretty close to a lock for me.

First Base: Carlos Santana ($4,300 FD, $4,800 DK). Carlos boast a team leading 17 home runs this season vs righties while also having the highest team ISO (.286) and WOBA (.410) of all the Indians. If you have room to pay up here, he is a guy with huge upside and lower ownership. Don’t stack Indian’s without him.

First Base Value: Paul Goldschmidt ($3,300 FD, $4,100 DK) The price for Goldy has officially gotten too low. He has been showing flashes of his previous 2018 form recently and who better to hand him a breakout game than his old friend Anthony DeSciafani. Goldy is getting on base over 50% of his ABs vs DeSciafani and at his current price tag I love the upside. DeSciafani has struggled with the long ball in his last two starts giving up a combined four home runs. I would like to see Goldy add to that total. I also like the fact the he is hitting in front of another value option I like in the outfield, Tyler O’Neill.

Second Base: Niko Goodrum ($3,000 FD, $4,100 DK). He gets Jacob Waguespack and his 5.93 ERA at home. I like what I am seeing out of Goodrum lately. He appears to be focused and is clearly the lead bat to fear on Detroit. IF the Tigers are putting up runs, you can be sure he is a part of it.

Second Base Value: Brock Holt ($2,300 FD, $4,100 DK). He gets on base, which is all you need at near min price (on Fanduel) when the rest of the Red Sox lineup should be churning in runs. Double digit Fanduel points is very doable.

Short Stop Stud: Francisco Lindor ($4,000, $5,100 DK). He is batting lead off on one of my favorite stacks of the day. Hitting .248 ISO, .380 WOBA vs righties. The Indians go as Lindor goes, and today that goes well. Don’t let Glenn Sparkman’s last start fool you, the Indians put it on him starting with the first at bat.

Short Stop Value: Paul DeJong ($3,800 FD, $4,200 DK). This is about as cheap as it gets for me today at SS. DeJong has two homers is last three games and is hitting .341 vs righties this season with the third most homers on his team. When he gets focused, I play him.

Third Base: Rafael Devers ($4,500 FD, $5,500 DK): Devers tends to get hot and stay hot. He has a .262 ISO and .426 WOBA with 15 HR’s vs lefties this season. He is literally the Red Sox best bat right now which no one would have predicted. Today he gets another pitcher he can take advantage of in the unproven Asher Wojciechowski. While Woj isn’t terrible (his K stuff is there) he still has a 5.74 ERA and has given up at least one homer in every one of his few starts this season. Boston has the highest team total on the main slate and he is in the right place in he lineup to clear the bases and hopefully put on in the stands.

Third Base Value: Tommy Edman ($2,900 FD, $4,300 DK) Tommy Edman is batting lead off and has scored double digits in his last four games. He carries a .220 ISO and .311 WOBA on the season and those number could very well increase with his new place in the batting order. I like him to keep up the production this afternoon.

Outfield Stud: Mookie Betts ($4,400 FD, DK) Batting leadoff and highest team total on the board. Betts is capable of breaking any slate while also having a very safe floor, especially today vs. Asher Wojciechowski. Nothing to not like here.

Outfield MidRange: Lourdes Gurriel Jr. ($3,900 FD, $4,800 $5,400 DK): 10 Homers, .405 ISO and .450 WOBA vs lefties this season. He faces Tyler Anderson, who has a 5.72 ERA in AAA, in a spot start for the Detroit Tigers. Anderson gave up two homers in his last MLB start to the White Sox. I like Gurriel Jr. getting to him here.

Outfield Value: Tyler O’Neil ($2,800 FD, $4,400, $5,400 DK) He is hitting .260 IS0 with a .405 WOBA. Last night his 8 game hit streak got broken but I like him to rebound here today. He has not had two games in a row without a hit since late May. I like the matchup vs DeSciafani (mentioned under Paul Goldschmidt above) and am looking for a couple RBI’s with a chance of a dong.

I primary used FanDuel when building optimal MLB DFS lineups.

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5 years ago 0 comment

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