Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green greens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. In terms of actual football I am not terribly interested. The Rams should come out on top pretty comfortably. But in terms of fantasy we have several targets to take advantage of. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going.
Vegas sees this as a comfortable victory for the Rams at home with a pretty low total by today’s NFL standard. Both teams are stout defensively. But the Rams are much more talented on offense and Sean McVay is the coach and play caller that Matt Nagy thinks he is in his head. It is very much an expectation vs. reality meme when you put these two guys together.
When building showdown lineup you use game scripts to build your lineups as opposed to simply playing the best plays. Playing wide receivers when you expect a team to be down big early and pairing a defense with a running back that you expect to be up big are things that you need to think about. The key is picking the correct script with the correct player combination if you want any chance to be successful.
Clear chalk today is probably no surprise to anyone. Stafford has been hyped up in the DFS community all offseason and the Rams running game did take a bit of a step back with Cam Akers out for the season. Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp are one of the better tandems in the NFL and regardless of how stingy the Bears can be at times there will still have to be some points scored from somewhere.
I cannot sit there here writing a showdown article with the Bears and not include Allen Robinson as a captain play no matter who it is. He is the best offensive weapon by far and he regularly beats lockdown corners including Jalen Ramsey. Last season Robinson caught 4 passes for 70 yards with Ramsey as the shadow. I do not have a ton of faith in the Bears, but I never have and Robinson has always performed in spite of that.
10 points against, 2 picks, and four sacks for 15 DK points. That was the stat line in week seven against the Bears last season. I know the Bears now have Andy Dalton at QB but is that really any different? The Rams run a modified Seattle Cover three scheme which is potent when to have top level talent up front to force QB’s to throw early and out of rhythm and the Rams have arguably the best defensive front in the NFL
This is where I will get a little different. With Stafford being the chalk it makes sense that players like Kupp and Woods are going to have the higher numbers but I am going to take some shots with new Rams running back Sony Michel. The starting nose tackle for the Bears Eddie Goldman is out, leaving a huge opening in their 3-4 defense. I do have some concern that this may be a split backfield situation with Darrel Henderson, but of the two I think Sony is the better option of the two.
Using either Woods or Kupp is my final contrarian option and it really is a matter of personal preference. We did not really get anything in the preseason to tell us whether Stafford had a lean of one over the other and you can not use last season as a gauge because Goff could only get through two reads so they were the only choices most weeks. However, if you take a look at our projection model Woods is projected for 15.61 and Kupp is only 11.44 DK points. You know what we say here and if you don’t let me be the first to say: When in doubt, TRUST THE MODEL.
I do think that in this showdown a case can be made mixing in kickers and defenses. Especially defenses if your script involves the running game on either side. I prefer the Rams over the Bears given Chicago’s ineptitude offensively under Nagy and Andy Dalton’s leadership. I do plan on running a lineup with the Rams as my captain, just in case.
It is finally time folks and I wish you all great success in 2021 and beyond and that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Bears at Rams 9.12 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!
One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.
If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals.
Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.
UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.
I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.
On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.
Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.
DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the first Week 14 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
This contest sports one of the lower projected game totals of the Week 14 slate, with the Rams the betting favorite at -240 and 24.75 projected points.
The chalk is leaning toward Jared Goff and away from Cam Newton, who is questionable with an abdomen injury that he played through last week en route to a 45-0 drubbing of the Chargers. His practice snaps have been capped in consecutive weeks because of the injury, but he’s fully expected to play on Thursday night.
Both teams are expected to lean more heavily on their running games this week as both pass defenses have been stifling over the past few weeks. The Rams DST is certainly an option for builds, but the opportunistic Patriots DST strikes me as a possible contrarian play up top, as we’ve seen the Rams QB get a little kooky and turn the ball over in the past.
Top corners from both teams (Stephen Gilmore for the Pats and Jalen Ramsey for the Rams) could impact the effectiveness of the opposing passing game, but Ramsey is unlikely to match up exclusively against one of the Pats WRs – since they don’t have a true No. 1. Gilmore will likely be on Robert Woods, since Cooper Kupp lines up in the slot quite a bit. Ownership will end up being pretty close for these two, with a slight recency bias going to Woods (double-digit target consistency over the past three games) – so Kupp might end up being the better value.
Playing both Kupp and Woods together with Goff doesn’t seem like a viable option, though I wouldn’t scold you for crafting one 1/10 GPP lineups that way. For the Pats, I’m most interested in Jakobi Meyers because of his PPR strengths, though he’s made just 15 catches over the past four games since his 12-reception party against the Jets. But the price on Damiere Byrd is obnoxiously low for some reason, and he’ll be in a few of my builds for sure.
As for the running game, we’ve got healthy committees for both teams that complicate the touch distribution, with Cam Akers heading the Rams backfield and Damien Harris leading the charge for the Patriots pounding style. Sophomore talent Darrell Henderson, Jr. is a sneaky play if you’re fading Akers, and there’s always the possibility that capable veteran Malcom Brown gets a few goal line carries and in crunch time. Brown is super cheap on DK and could be worth using in the CPT role if you want to stack the high-upside position players.
The Patriots usually just play the hot hand at RB, but Harris should begin s the early down pounder while James White fills in on third down and obvious passing situations. Sony Michel is finally healthy, so Bill Belichick could throw a monkey wrench into the mix by tapping him for a few additional carries or giving him a lead role if Harris fumbles. Coach is not a big fan of fumbles.
Tight ends won’t likely play a big role between the 20s, but we could see either Rams TE notch some red zone targets and sneak in for a TD. But both Tyler Higbee and Gerald Everett would be final lineup construction pieces for me rather than core builds.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Feel confined to a classic narrative this week. Kickers and DSTs are again in play with some of the true defensive playmakers on these teams and both QBs are turnover prone.
DO: Make Damien Harris a big part of your builds. It could blow up if the Rams really make a point of stopping him, but I don’t see Belichick getting away from what has worked for them.
DON’T: Expect a high-scoring game. Both coaches have engineered these teams to win battles, but neither is especially interested in getting into a shootout.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
We’ve got another weird one on the docket for MNF, with multiple statuses to monitor before game time, including the Jets’ highest-upside offensive player in Jamison Crowder (groin) and the normal bevy of Patriots players who’ve been saddled with the questionable tag – no doubt because Bill Belichick can’t help but add some gamesmanship to his weekly strategy.
Ironically, one of the most dubious of 2020 performers this season, Cam Newton, is actually one of the least uncertain heading into this matchup – at least in my opinion. The Jets have lost another key defensive piece (LB Avery Williamson via trade) and should have trouble containing Newton in this matchup. How the Pats deploy their running backs, including how much we see of James White and Rex Burkhead, hinges on the availability of Sony Michel (who has been practicing and could technically come off IR and play tonight) and Damien Harris, whose questionable tag could simply be a red herring and not a real setback for his ankle issue.
Using Newton at captain makes the most sense for cash game matchups, and his upside is high enough that he’ll be the chalk in GPPs. The Patriots will be missing WR Julian Edelman, but Jakobi Meyers seems to have taken over the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. I’d strongly consider stacking Meyers and White with Newton as a starting point for GPPs and cash. Using Meyers at CPT on DK allows you to build some huge-upside Patriots stacks.
The Jets – smack dab in the middle of a season where they are once again being the Jets – will be rolling out Joe Flacco at QB with Sam Darnold (shoulder) on the shelf. Flacco is a man who clearly does not want to be the quarterback of this 0-8 football team. I’m steering clear in most formats but will have at least 1/10 Jets stack with Flacco at the helm in large-field GPPs. I’d rather see them give James Morgan a shot, but Adam Gase is a sadist weirdo who sleeps about as often as a NXIVM member.
Because of their glaring lack of a running game, I don’t mind the Jets WRs here, as they may rack up reception points without necessarily finding paydirt or making huge gains – and the triumvirate of Crowder (double-digit targets in every game he’s played this season), Braxton Berrios (11 targets last week vs. the Chiefs) and rookie Denzel Mims will be complicated by the return of Breshad Perriman (concussion).
On DraftKings, we really have to consider the Pats DST, even though it’s a steep price, and there are definitely some viable GPP builds that start with them up top.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Play the Jets defense tonight. I just don’t see a path to them factoring even if they get a rare defensive TD.
DO: Use Jakobi Meyers in a bunch of lineups, as he’s soaking up the most targets of any Pats WR.
DON’T: Focus too much on the tight ends in this game. Neither side targets TEs very much and while that could change in the small sample of a single game, it’s certainly not a viable cash game strategy.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
We’ve got your NFL Week 17 DFSplays – the best RBs to use in the main slate, as well as some contrarian picksto help you win big!
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DK ($10,000) FD ($11,000)
McCaffrey is the best fantasy RB in the game and has a chance to finish with over 1,000 yards this season for both rushing and receiving. He is only 67 yards short on the receiving end, so expect the Panthers to let him rack up the receptions and eclipse that mark. In a week with plenty of uncertainty, Panthers’ interim coach Perry Fewell has already stated he has no plans to pull CMC early in Week 17.
DK ($8,000) FD ($8,700)
Zeke should be involved in the Cowboys offense early andoften, and while his workload and productionthis year haven’t been up to his usual standards, he’s still running theball well when given the chance. Just last week against a tough run defense,he had 20 touches and played on 97 percent of the snaps, rushing for 84 yards.Now he gets the lackluster Washington run defense (ranked 28th inthe NFL) in a game the Cowboys should win. He’s one of the top cash game plays forWeek 17.
Also consider:Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb
DK ($6,900) FD ($7,300)
The Colts wrap up the season against the Jaguars, who have given up 5.14 yards per carry this season and more than 30 fantasy points a game to opposing runners – the second most in the NFL on both counts. This Jags defense allowed Mack to gash them for 109 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries in Week 11, and Mack’s 7.8 yards per attempt during that game ranks as the RB’s highest since Week 6 of 2017. He’s a great GPP play on a team that hasn’t been throwing it too well.
DK ($4,900) FD ($6,500)
Michel should tear this Miami run defense to shreds, andhis price is obscenely low on DK. He’s a viable GPP play on both sits, however,and should have pretty low ownership on FD where he’s priced between PhillipLindsay and Damien Williams. I think his upside is a little higher than both thosecapable backs, even with the crowded backfield in New England, because he couldeasily rush for two or three TDs. We’ve been burned by him before, but if youcan stand a little risk, this feels like a big Michel week.
Also consider: Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay
DK ($8,700) FD ($9,300)
Barkley doesn’t have the best matchup on paper, but the Giants are using him an awful lot lately and he’s shown explosiveness that’s been missing for most of 2019, averaging 40.1 DraftKings points over his past two games. The volume is there, and the price is still affordable. I’m in love with Barkley as a low-owned contrarian play in a week that might have the DFS masses looking elsewhere.
DK ($7,100) FD (7,300)
Drake is coming off another monster game where he carried the ball 24 times for 166 yards and two TDs, adding 3-18-0 receiving in a stunning win over the Seahawks. He now looks to cap off an unexpectedly productive season in a Week 17 road game against the Rams. It’s not a great spot, but we’ve seen Drake rise to the occasion in a tough matchup before, and there’s a lot of free agency money at stake for him.
Also consider: Austin Ekeler, Devonta Freeman
DK ($4,700) FD ($6,400)
Williams was the workhorse last week for the Chiefs and hegets a favorable home matchup against a faltering division rival. The Chargersallow 110.3 rushing yards per game, making Williams a high-upside play in aleading role.
DK ($3,900) FD ($5,100)
Thompson got some involvement in the running game lastweek, carrying the ball eight times for 34 yards to go along with his usualpassing game role (4-18-0 on four targets). His skill set fits in nicely for thismatchup with the Cowboys, and we could see him get a lot more targets his wayin what should be a negative game script. The price is right on DK, but I’llstay away on FD.
Additional plays: Mike Boone, Kareem Hunt, Kerryon Johnson
Goal: 47.5, Prize: 2x
I am looking at three RBs from this game to meet this modest total of 47.5 to pay 2x, including Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, and Kareem Hunt. If you are skittish about playing three RBs from this game, feel free to mix in a WR for Chubb or Hunt, but I really like the volume of all these backs here.
