Week 16 NFL DFS Monday Night Showdown: Bills at Patriots

257

The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday Night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 16 NFL DFS contests!

Week 16 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Josh Allen (DK $18,900, FD $16,500)

Pivot: Stefon Diggs (DK $16,500, FD $15,500)

Contrarian #1: Cam Newton (DK $13,500, FD $14,500)

Contrarian #2: Cole Beasley (DK $15,000, FD $15,000)

FD/DK Value: James White (DK $6,200 FLEX, FD $8,500), John Brown (DK $2,800 FLEX, FD $5,000)

DK Punt: Isaiah McKenzie (DK $800 FLEX)

One of the biggest Week 16 NFL DFS slate-breaking possibilities on Monday night surrounds the forthcoming activation of John Brown, who’s been on IR with an ankle injury. The Bills have until 4 p.m. to get him on the active roster if he’s to take the field in the game. He’s already put up individual game scores of 19.0 and 18.2 in weeks 1 and 2, and 17.9 and 13.2 in weeks 9 and 10 – the last time he played for Buffalo. Those performances suggest he’ll be a major NFL DFS factor in the offensive game plan if he suits up tonight, and his price on both sites – including at the FD minimum $5K – are criminally low. UPDATE: Brown was activated from IR at 4 p.m. today and immediately placed on the COVID-19 reserve list as a close contact of T.J. Yeldon, who tested positive this weekend. He’ll likely stay inactive until Week 17 (if they need to improve their seeding) or in the Wild Card round.

If Brown is active, that might take a few prospective targets away from Cole Beasley, but the Beas operates primarily out of the slot and is still capable of monster games alongside Brown, who tweaked his ankle in the 4th quarter of Week 10 when the former Cowboys WR scored 30.9 DK points against the Cardinals.

Obviously, Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs are great plays regardless of whether or not Brown suits up, but rookie playmaker Gabriel Davis would presumably see significantly fewer snaps if Brown is ready to go. I love the way that Davis goes and gets passes; he’s physical and uses his body well.

UPDATE: Expect a typical target share for Beasley and more looks for Davis with Brown inactive.

I like both Devin Singletary and Zack Moss, though it’s possible we see a few more snaps in passing situations go to Singletary over the next couple of weeks, since Allen and the Bills are closing in on an exclusive NFL record. They’ve have had 13 different players catch a touchdown pass in 2020, tying the NFL record set by the 2016 Atlanta Falcons. The record was tied when Allen hooked up a TD with Jake Kumerow in the second quarter last week. Singletary remains the odd man out among the Bills’ available skill position players, as both Moss and T.J. Yeldon already have TD receptions this year. If he doesn’t go to Singletary, KR Andre Roberts and LT Dion Dawkins are the only other regular players with any TD receptions in their careers.

On the other side, I only have interest in Cam Newton, Jakobi Meyers, James White and Damien Harris – who is a game-time decision with a lingering ankle injury that has capped his practice time these past two weeks. Harris was inactive in Week 15 and yielded his usual role to a rusty Sony Michel. Keep an eye on Jarrett Stidham too, since Newton could get pulled if he turns the ball over a lot or gets injured.

Michel could make a few of my builds if Harris doesn’t play, but the Bills run defense has been much better over the past few weeks – particularly because they’ve scored so many points that teams have been forced to play catchup through the air. I’ll have some shares of the Bills DST as well, since the return of a few key pieces and LB Matt Milano has seemingly rejuvenated this group.

Week 16 NFL DFS Utility options (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.

DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.

DO: Play Josh Allen. He’s not a wise fade even though the matchup isn’t ideal.

DON’T: Forget about John Brown. If he’s active, he could play a major role in this game. …forget about Gabriel Davis, who’s got the talent and ability to make a huge impact again this week.

Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on Week 16 NFL DFS overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

1. Josh Allen
2. Stefon Diggs
3. Cole Beasley
4. Cam Newton
5. Devin Singletary
6. Jakobi Meyers
7. Damien Harris (ankle, GTD)
8. Zack Moss
9. James White
10. Gabriel Davis
11. Bills DST
12. Dawson Knox
13. Damiere Byrd
14. Sony Michel (if Harris inactive)
15. Tyler Bass
16. N’Keal Harry
17. Nick Folk
18. Isaiah McKenzie
19. Pats DST
20. Dalton Keene