Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
After everything that has happened with the Raiders in previous weeks you would think that the would be larger underdogs than a simple 2.5 point dog but the Raiders have played the Chiefs better than any other team in the NFL over the last couple of season and if you take a look at Patrick Mahomes’ stat lines you will see that he has looked downright bad over the last few weeks.
Usually when you are playing showdowns we would see Mahomes somewhere between 20-30% captain. In those scenarios I would say fade the chalk so you don’t chop the pot with 1,000 of your closest friends. But 13% is a different story. If you want to take a chance on Patty tonight and you feel like he can right the ship we all know what is ceiling is and you likely will not see him as a sub-20% captain again this year.
As I said above you are not really leveraging any ownership in tonight’s game if you use the top 5 players in captain as they are all within 5% of each other. The question is simply who will outperform who and if you do not think Mahomes will return to form the most logical pivot is Derrick Carr. In his last two contests Carr completed over 71% of his passes, with three touchdowns, and one interception. The Chiefs have been a mess in every facet as of late and Darren Waller should have no issues getting open all day downfield for big plays in this contest.
Waller has unsurprisingly been a big reason why Carr has performed well against the Chiefs in both of their 2020 matchups getting 7 targets in each, and finishing with with 48 and 88 yards and a touchdown in each contest. Waller is already the favorite target of Carr and now Henry Ruggs is gone opening up a few more targets a game. KC is also one of the absolute worst at defending the tight end position so there is a reasonable chance that he sees 12-15 targets tonight and gets into the endzone at least once.
Travis Kelce gets the slightest of edges for me over Tyreek Hill as a captain play and I am really nitpicking here. Mahomes has been at his worst over the last three weeks in terms of timing and accuracy. If I have to choose one player to help him get right I want the larger target, who isn’t 65 yards down the field, and easier to time his routes. Mahomes needs to get in a rhythm and I just see that as being an easier feat at the moment with the big guy at tight end. Before you ask, yes you can play Hill at captain. He is still the Cheetah and he can drop 50 on this defense if Mahomes is on his game tonight. But I am not doing anyone any good just listing Mahomes, Kelce, Hill as the top three options in a showdown slate every time they play. We all know what they bring to the table.
Ok I will put one guy in here who is lower owned. KC’s biggest weakness is clearly run defense and this might finally be the week we get a ceiling game from Jacobs if the Raiders attack it. The biggest problem for the last few season is that teams get behind so big that they have to abandon it. That has been far from the case of late. This is a little bit of a gut play for me as Jacobs has not been getting the workload that we were expecting this year but I wanted to give you guys something a little different as Jacobs is right around 4% projected as a captain play tonight and if KC lays another egg you will find yourself in a high leverage position.
With all of the obvious plays priced up there will be a clear need for some salary savings tonight so as far as I am concerned both kickers in this contest are firmly in play and as wild is it is for me to say it, if you are scripting an build where you expect the Chiefs struggles to continue I do not see anything wrong with taking a risk in a spot or two and targeting the Raiders defense. Wow, it feels so wrong saying that but here we are.
It is time folks and I hope WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 10 Chiefs at Raiders 11.14 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!
I don’t know what to make of this contest without Henry. Will the Titan’s abandon the run and throw the ball 50+ times? Will Peterson be some kind of reasonable analogue of the King for a few weeks? Will the Titan’s be completely out of rhythm and end up losing by multiple scores? This is an odd one to handicap so if you play showdown tonight you really need to build numerous lineups that will tell each story to give yourself the best shot at success.
Against that Charmin toilet paper soft defense of the Titans, Matt Stafford should absolutely smash and it makes a ton of sense that he will be the highest owned captain on the slate. Nothing much need to be discussed here. Stafford is playing at an MVP caliber and the Titans are bad on the defensive side.
With King Henry expected to miss the rest of the season, the hopes and dreams and the franchise rests on the right arm of Tannehill. We do not have a huge sample to go off but if there was a day that Tanny would end up throwing the ball 50 times this is the one. With No Henry, or Evans, the Titans are stuck with Jeremy McNichols and Adrian Peterson as their primary backs.
Cooper Kupp is all of our daddies at this point. I though he was going to be good with Stafford at the helm, I did not however to expect him to play like a god amongst me, racking up more fantasy points than any other wide receiver in the history of the NFL through 8 weeks. He is a lock button for me tonight. If he isn’t a captain he will be in my flex, 100%, no doubt. Do not fade him.
It is safe to say that without Henry, AJ Brown will find himself near the top of the NFL in targets going into the second half of the year. The Titans have no other choice but to change to a pass first offense and they do not have a ton of depth. Brown, Julio, rinse and repeat. If the Titans go down big tonight Brown is looking at 12 targets as his floor and he can turn any one of them into a big play.
With the Rams as 7.5 point favorites Henderson should have every opportunity to go ham against Tennessee’s soft defense. I’ve been trying to gauge this contest without Henry and if you were to tell me that LA trounces the Titans by 21+ points and Henderson ended up with 15 carries in the second half for 98 yards and 2 TD’s I would not be surprised in the least.
If you were dead set on using a defense in this contest I could co-sign on the Rams. While on paper, the Titans do have several weapons still available to them there is a non zero percentage chance that they will struggle to change their play style and the Rams newly upgraded defensive front could be in the Titan’s backfield all day leading to sack and turnovers. As far as kickers go, it may be difficult to find cheaper priced guys that can provide you with the same upside in a 51 total game so if you want to go for a kicker as your final piece I would not be against it.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 WDS Stoweby’s WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 9 Titans at Rams 11.7 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Sunday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! I hope that as you are all reading this you are looking at green screens across the board. Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick and take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
***Quick shoutout to our subscriber Warner Bros who in just a few short weeks with us has binked in two different showdown slates leading to over 34K in winnings. Keep it up and welcome to the team!
The game script tonight still is not known as of 3:00 PM EST. It all hinges on the calf of one Dak Prescott so these plays can change drastically based on whether or not Prescott suits up. Currently, I am writing this under the assumption that Prescott suits up. If Dak end up being out or if you think he gives it a go and leaves the game early I am recommending caution on Cowboy’s receivers and giving a bump to both Elliott, Pollard, and Schultz.
A healthy Dalvin Cook listed as the 5th priced player in a showdown slate is simply a mispricing on the part of DraftKings and due to that error, we will likely see him as the highest rostered captain in the game. When healthy he is a near-lock for 20+ carries and 4-6 targets in the passing game and his props tell me that Vegas feels the same with a 3.5 catch prop with 114.5 total yards and the best odds to score on the game at -150. Add that up and we have a 21 DK point total as the baseline
The only reason Dak isn’t at the top of this list today is the lingering concern with if calf injury but at the end of the day if you expect him to suit up and play he is a prime candidate for a pivot captain. Even if he lacks mobility tonight he has a great offensive line, a wide variety of offensive skill players to throw to, and the Vikings aren’t the type of defense that strikes fear into the hearts and minds of offensive coordinators. If you get a chance, watch him in pregame warmups and get a feel for how he looks before locking him in. You know the cameras will be following him around during the warmups
Lamb went ham in week six bringing in 9 of 11 targets for 149 yards and two TD’s against a defense that is arguably better in the New England Patriots. With Dak nursing an injury he is going to lead to lean on his playmakers to make up for his limited mobility. That leads me to believe that we are going to see a little more in the short passing game to keep Dak safe increasing the target valume for Ceedee as he will be used as a safety valve in the middle of the field.
I have been going back and forth on Lamb or Jefferson as my first contrarian play but one thing led me to go with Ceedee over Justin. Primetime Kirk Cousins is a thing. Whenever the spotlight shines on him he tends to underperform more often than not so I will have a bit more Ceedee than Justin in my captain spot. Well, I guess two things, I also have the slightest bit of concern that Diggs may be able to hang with Jefferson just enough to slow him down a bit. Not stop, but slow down.
The number of people shouting that Zeke was washed after week one was mind-boggling. After five straight games with no less than 17.7 DK points people have quietly taken their L and gone home. Zeke is good folks, it doesn’t matter if you think Pollard is better, Jerry loves the guy, and he is still the number one. As I mentioned with Ceedee I expect the Cowboys to script their offensive game plan to keep their franchise quarterback safe if he suits up. What that means for most teams is a heavy dose of the run game and Zeke should reasonably be expected to gash the Vikings front.
I am not going to be running the kickers or defenses in my main builds tonight. But, if you are going to run a lineup or two out there where you expect primetime Cousins to rear his ugly head, or if you think the calf injury causes Dak to struggle or leave the game early and Cooper Rush takes over I can see a case where playing the defenses or kickers as viable. There is a reasonable, albeit small chance that this game falls completely flat due to the quarterback situation tonight. If you are building 10+ lineups, consider doing one or two builds where you script one or both teams struggling to give yourself a complete contrarian build in a 51 total game.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Week 8 Cowboys at Vikings 10.31 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.
If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.
This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.
Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.
While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.
There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.
The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.
Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.
With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.
It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!
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