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PGA DFS Picks: 2021 Travelers Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re giving you some top PGA DFS picks and looking for green screens at the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, deep field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Dustin Johnson (19 over Kevin Streelman’s -18)
  • The course: TPC River Highlands (Cromwell, CT)
    • 6,841 yards, Par 70 – Old 1928 design reworked by Pete Dye in 1982
    • Varied types of holes on a short course that can produce low scoring (site of Jim Furyk’s 58 in 2016)
    • Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
    • Just two par 5s, but one is short and yields lots of birdies and eagles; and two driveable par 4s around 300 yards
    • Experience with Pete Dye layouts can help, and there’s plenty of course history at TPC River Highlands
    • Distance not an issue here as scoring clubs more important
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Par 4s: 400-450, Opportunities Gained, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass and Poa), SG: Around the Green, Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – DJ’s game doesn’t look too bad heading into the Travelers, where he’s the defending champ and one of the betting favorites at 12-1. Last year’s title was helped tremendously by a second round 64 and a scorching-hot 61 on Saturday, but it took him a bit to warm up and he closed the deal with a solid 67 on Sunday. That’s just how he could win again this year – with his talent shining through in a couple of low rounds and solid ball-striking carrying him through when his mojo ain’t working.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – His projected ownership will probably be the highest in this tier for the consistency he’s shown in PGA DFS events, excluding the poor stretch of MCs from the Players to the Wells Fargo during the spring. Believe it or not, Cantlay is actually the current FedExCup points leader with three top 15s at the Travelers since 2018. I won’t have as many shares as I will of DJ, but I feel like some exposure is warranted.

Paul Casey (DK $9,900) – Casey is my favorite play under $10K and has a great course history at TPC River Highlands, where he’s 6-for-6 with four top five finishes. He also finished among the top 10 in his last three starts (EURO and PGA combined) and is coming off a very respectable T7 at the U.S. Open. Sia is on board and so is Stix, so I’m buying some Casey this week and hoping for another Top 10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – Scheffler missed the cut in his Travelers debut last year, but he was amid a bad stretch of golf during the beginning of the spectator-free COVID tournaments. An opening round 70 sealed his fate, but he’s playing solid golf right now (T7 at the U.S. Open) and checks all the boxes this week.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $9,400) – He’s a solid play in all formats, and he’s probably worth using in single-entry builds for his galling consistency. Nick talked a little bit in The Breakdown about how he’s a near-lock for the Top 40 every week and we just saw him play some marvelous golf at the U.S. Open. “Streels” is one of those guys who just seems to show up every week.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200) – The jury is still out on when we’ll see Finau get his next win, but the price seems fair this week for a guy who just needs the putter to show up to realize his Top 10 upside. He’s missed his last two cuts here but had a T25 and T17 in 2016 and 2017. I’d steer clear in cash games, but he’s worth of consideration for GPPs.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – He’s very popular this week and seems to be everywhere in the “experts” picks on plenty of sites, but he’s not nearly as safe a play as that would dictate. It’s been a while since I’ve seen him play his true “A” game, and the birdie runs are coming less frequently than a few years ago, when he won this tournament in 2018. I’ll have minimal exposure, and he’s not in my player pool for single-entry or cash games.

Brian Harman (DK $8,800) – Harman typically plays about a half-stroke better on Dye courses, and he’s an accurate driver who just closed out a solid week with a one-over 72 on Sunday at the U.S. Open, finishing T19. He’s got a couple of Top 10 finishes at the Travelers in his last three tries (MC in the tumultuous 2020) and has now placed among the top 20 in seven of eight starts going back to his T3 at the Players.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,500) –Another “Dye desirable,” Kim has made three of his last four cuts at the Travelers with a T11 in 2020 and solid finishes in 2016 and 2018. His form isn’t bad either, with a T9 at the Memorial and T40 last week at a grueling U.S. Open on a course that didn’t; necessarily fit his strengths. He’s a fine GPP play this week.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,900) – Bradley likes Pete Dye courses and this is the first of two “home games” for the underpriced golfer, who has had a really strong 2021. He finished T2 in 2019 and makes sense for all kinds of builds this week.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $7,700) – Molinari is rounding into form and while he doesn’t play a lot of events, he always has a shot at winning because he can get ridiculously hot with the putter. I think the T13 finish at the U.S. Open should give him the confidence necessary to capitalize on his opportunities this week and make a splash on the weekend.

Doc Redman (DK $7,600) – After a stretch of spotty play earlier this season, Redman has turned in some solid performances in recent weeks, posting a T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a T2 at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. He also debuted here last season with a T11 and he’s usually a decent leverage play that’s a little off-the-radar.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP), Max Homa (GPP), Jason Day (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – Griffin’s ball-striking was good at the U.S. Open and while he didn’t miss the cut, I was hoping for a better finish than T35. There’s a bunch of high-upside/high-risk golfers in this price range, and Lanto fits the bill for GPPs and as a 100-1 longshot to win.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – I’m a huge Fowler fan and the disappointment of missing the U.S. Open this year has to be weighing on the veteran golfer. Rickie’s game has had its ups and downs but has shown improvement over his last two events. There’s not much recent history at the Travelers to go form, but he had a T13 in 2014, closing with a 64 on Sunday. A return to New England and a course that fits his game could be just what he needs as he and Allison Stokke await the birth of their first child.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $7,100) – He might get chalky after three days of brilliance at the U.S. Open (but not a fourth), because the price is very nice. The Canadian is 4-for-4 at the Travelers with an impressive scoring average (68.19) and a T3 last year. He’s in play for all formats.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100) – If you need a pivot from Hughes with just as much upside but a lot more risk, look no further than Ortiz. He’s missed the cut here in his last two Travelers appearances but finished T17 in 2016 and has the chops to post some low scores here.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The $7K range is loaded with players who we’d like to play when they’re in good form, and Reavie makes for a wonderful GPP play this week as he’s coming off a T14 at the Palmetto and T40 at the U.S. Open. Reavie doesn’t typically play well on Dye courses, but we an make an exception this week because it’s a good spot.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,000) – Stanley isn’t a very good putter, but his iron play is consistently strong and he’s once again underpriced for what he offers in PGA DFS. His course history is good and he’s a real bargain this week given his Top 20 upside.

Adam Long (DK $6,800) – Long has finished T20-T26 in his last two tournaments and is a solid ball-striker who’s accurate off the tee – an important factor in creating opportunities here. If he can keep form having the one blowup round that usually mars his chances, he’ll be in good shape for the weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Na (GPP), Aaron Wise, Brendan Steele (GPP), Stewart Cink, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Will Gordon (GPP), Ryan Moore (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Austin Eckroat (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – A lot of folks will look to Satoshi Kodaira and the very consistent Vincent Whaley, but I like Stuard’s chances of rebounding after missed cuts at the Palmetto and U.S. Open. He has an extensive course history with spotty results, but something clicked last year en route to a T20, a finish I think he could duplicate here in 2021.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – He’s a total longshot (and hasn’t posted a Top 10 since he won the RSM in 2019), but he’s accurate off the tee and has made three straight cuts at this event. If you need a final piece and only have $6,300 to spend, he’s worth throwing in one or two out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Satoshi Kodaira, Tom Lewis, Vincent Whaley

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PGA DFS Picks: The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

This week we have a stacked field and find you some winning PGA DFS teams at the highly demanding and difficult Torrey Pines South Course in the U.S. Open!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Star-studded major championship field of 156 golfers that includes amateur and local and international pro qualifiers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 60 and ties play the weekend (just 38.46% of the field)
  • The course: Torrey Pines South Course (La Jolla, CA)
    • Over 7,700 yards, Par 71 – William Bell, Sr. (1957) with Rees Jones redesign (2001, 2019)
    • Long and brutal seaside/cliffside course
    • Scene of Tiger Woods’s epic 2008 U.S. Open victory over Rocco Mediate
    • Tees and fairways are Kikuyu overseeded with Rye; unpredictable (and often bumpy) Poa annua greens
    • Classic U.S. open layout with long, thick rough that will require punch-outs and cause a few lost balls (and PGA DFS frustration)
    • Putting (and Three-Putt Avoidance) will be key, as 4-8 foots putts drop just below the 2/3 make rate (normally 68-70%) on these complex, tiered greens
    • Long Par 4s require good long iron play from >200 yards
  • Weather should be pleasant this week, but greens could bake and make putting and approaches very difficult
  • Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Three-Putt Avoidance (3PA, for short), Par 4s: 450-500, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm’s only flaws seem to be mental, but he seemed mature, reflective and generally loose and comfortable during his interview on Tuesday, even when peppered with a lot of questions about the COVID snafu and how that all transpired. Rahmbo is No. 12 on tour in SG: APP this season, and he’s second and third (respectively) in SG: T2G and SG: OTT. He was playing great golf at the Memorial before he had to withdraw, and the 2017 Farmers champion LOVES Torrey Pines (T7-2-T5-T29-WIN in his last five years here). The Spaniard also finished second at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, so he’s definitely in play – I just worry a bit about his quick backswing and equally quick temper on a course that will play tougher than it usually does.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – As always, my main concern is putting with DJ, who doesn’t make a whole lot of 5-10 footers, a stat that is crucial at the U.S. Open – and a reason I’m not looking too hard at Hideki Matsuyama this week (despite the current
Masters champ’s amazing long iron play and decent record at Torrey Pines). Of course, because DJ’s PGA DFS ownership should be relatively low this week, his talent and length make him a fine contrarian play for GPPs. If I come in slightly ahead of field ownership, I’ll be happy, because there’s no need to go all-in with this guy, even if he is the OWGR No. 1.

Rory McIlroy (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, I’m interested in Rory because of his projected ownership (even if it creeps up a bit as we approach Thursday morning), and he’s under $10K this week in a tournament he has every intention of winning. I’ll talk more about the likely chalky Xander Schauffele later, but starting off a lineup with McIlroy and X-Man still leaves you with $7,700 per golfer (Phil Mickelson’s price this week), a strategy I’ll be using in several GPP lineups. Rory still kills it off the tee and knows how to grind out even par and one-under rounds in tough conditions, and the baby discount could help us by allowing a roster construction that avoids playing a bomb elsewhere in that dicey low-mid range.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Morikawa’s elite ball-striking (he basically gains anywhere from five to ten strokes per round on approach) will probably keep him in any golf tournament at this point, but the difficulty of these Poa annua greens may prevent him from winning another major until the next Masters or PGA Championship. Still, he’s a fine PGA DFS cash game anchor because even on the most difficult surfaces, his spectacular iron play keeps him on the leaderboard.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,300) – Schauffele checks all the boxes this week and makes a lot of 5-10 footers (No. 10 on tour). Currently the No. 6 player in the world, he also finished second here at the Farmers in January during a 2019-2021 run that included nine straight Top 17s and a remarkable 17 straight Top 25s. His missed cuts at the Players and PGA Championship could keep a few folks away, but I like him in all formats this week (cash or tourney) and he’ll be a staple of my single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed (DK $9.000) – Reed is No. 1 on tour in 3PA, which is going to be one of those stats that should help weed out similarly priced players in single-entry GPPs. It sounds as if preventing meltdowns on these putting surfaces could be a huge help in making the cut and getting in contention, and while Reed’s extremely spotty off the tee, his putter will keep him in most tournaments. His projected PGA DFS ownership is still pretty high, but again – we can find some leverage elsewhere if we need to.

Tony Finau (DK $8,900) – I may prefer spending the extra few hundred on Schauffele or Cantlay in cash games, but Finau has played sparkling golf at Torrey Pines in the past five years (T2-T6-T13-T6-T4) – albeit under less difficult conditions. And while he’s not electric with the flatstick, he ranks in the top 50 on tour this week in 3PA. Winning a U.S. Open for your second PGA Tour victory is a bit of a stretch, but we know he can finish in the Top 15, which he’s done in all three U.S. opens when he’s made the cut, including a T8 in 2020.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) –A great ball striker who can putt a bit and likes both Poa annua and Torrey Pines, his length will help navigate some of the distance on the long par 4s and he’s already shown an ability to contend on the big stages of major championships. I don’t think his ownership will be oppressively high – at least to the point where he’s a bad play in large-field GPPs, and even if he lands in the 15-20% range, I’m buying.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,100) – I’ll be including Oosty in my PGA DFS player pool for just about every major unless the back injuries that have plagued him in the past flare up – even if it’s hard to tell when that may happen. The swing is still very pure, and he’s an elite putter from 5-10 feet (ranking first on the PGA Tour this season). Sweet Louie is just very hard to get away from when I’m perusing this price range.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,000) – I love how Smith’s game developed in 2021, and while his overall SG numbers are decent, the thing that separates him from a lot of other golfers in this range is his elite putting. He’s solid at getting up and down and he doesn’t three-putt that much because he one-putts 44.15% of the time! Sia talked a bit about him in the Breakdown and I’ll be overweight on the field. While his ball-striking remains the biggest concern, I’m willing to take a stab and play the Aussie in single-entry for some leverage.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,600) – Aside from Phil and his astounding win at Kiawah Island, Kokrak has probably had the best 2020-21 of anybody in this range, with his first two career wins coming at the CJ CUP in October 2020 and another victory at the Charles Schwab at the end of May. Kokrak has massive upside for a guy who’s easy to roster in all kinds of builds, and he’s made the cut in his last three U.S. Opens, including a T17 at Winged Foot in 2020.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (Cash), Matt Fitzpatrick (GPP), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Shane Lowry

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman has burned me more times than I can count, but I refuse to give in to the “never again” thinking that keeps DFS pros from winning GPPs. I might not make him a staple of my single-entry builds, but he’s certainly in play in most formats at this price point and has a truly impressive course history at Torrey Pines (T18-WIN-T43-T8-T14 in his last five Farmers Insurance appearances). Leishman is adept at hitting some different shot shapes – a helpful trait this week – and he’s a solid enough putter to post a Top 5 or 10 finish, an attainable goal in this price range.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – His form has come around a bit since a few MCs earlier in 2021, and he’s made the cut at all five U.S. Opens he’s participated in, including a T4 in 2020 at Winged Foot. The downside is that he’s missed three straight cuts at the Farmers after some moderate success in 2017 and 2018 (T8 and T14). He may be flying under the radar a bit, but we can double-check ownership projections before lock and make some adjustments to our exposure in GPPs.

Stewart Cink (DK $7,200) – We’ve talked before about Cink’s resurgence and solid numbers off the tee, but it’s important to point out how much experience he has at this venue. This will be his first U.S. Open appearance since 2017, when he finished T46 at Erin Hills, but there’s still plenty of game left in his old bones. I’ll be using Cink at about a 10-15% rate in my 20-max and large-field GPPs.

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,100) – A course horse with a pair of second-place finishes in the Farmers over the past four years, Palmer has missed his last two U.S. Open cuts but stands to benefit from his familiarity with this popular tour venue. I’m most concerned with how he handles the longer rough this week, but he checks most of the boxes in our focus stat categories (No. 34 on tour in SG:OTT) and seems underpriced given his upside.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Poulter is coming off a T30 at the PGA Championship, a T3 at the Charles Schwab, and most recently a T25 at Congaree in the Palmetto Championship, and he’s well known for solid numbers on Poa annua greens and from 5-10 feet. The length of Torrey Pines could be an issue this week, but for this bargain price, I consider him worthy of a few GPP entries.

Brendan Todd (DK $6,900) – Another putting specialist who can elevate his game to the next level when he’s striking it well, Todd’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the 20-30 yards of distance he’ll be losing to the longer hitters in the field and hitting approaches from 175-200+. He’s GPP only because of his struggles off the tee and on those longer approach shots, but he’s still in my player pool as of now for his short game prowess.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,800) – I’m a little surprised Griffin isn’t more than $7K this week based on his metrics and course history, which include a T7 at the Farmers this year and a T12 in 2018. With four MCs over his last five tournaments, the form is pretty ugly, but the venue and his skill set portend a better finish more along the lines of the steady stretch of Top 35 he posted in February and March.

Justin Suh (DK $6,600) – A USC standout who’s often forgotten among all-star crop of 2019 rookies, Suh has yet to make his mark on the PGA Tour but has played Torrey Pines 20+ times in his life. It won’t be playing as easily as it probably did during his junior and collegiate days, but Suh qualified last week to tee it up again here – and he could make for a decent final piece in a few GPP lineups.

More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Brian Harman (Cash), Charley Hoffman, Max Homa (GPP), Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Charl Schwartzel (Cash), Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Adam Hadwin, Wyndham Clark

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – He made the cut at the U.S. Opens in 2016 and 2018, and he’s had some special individual rounds this season. He also has two top 10 finishes at Torrey Pines in the past five years and while he’s not known as a guy who can put together four good rounds, if he shines in the first two days he could finish among the Top 25 and make value.

Chan Kim (DK $6,100) – Kim is worth slotting into a few GPP entries based on his near-minimum salary, where he’s basically the only one I’ll be using. Nick “Stix” Bretwisch turned me onto the South Korean’s game, and while he’s yet to make the cut in his previous three U.S Open appearances, he’s got the lowest betting odds in this range and he does have a T11 at the R&A’s Open Championship in 2017.

Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker, Sam Ryder, J.J. Spaun

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PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
  • 2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
  • The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
    • > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
    • Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
    • Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
    • Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
    • Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
  • Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
  • Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

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PGA DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Invitational field of 121 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • PGA Tour event since 1946
  • The course: Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, TX)
    • Par 70: 7,209 yards – tight fairways with trees blocking approaches in spots
    • Just two par 5s, both scoring holes despite the longer playing up to 635 yards
    • Smaller Bentgrass greens
    • Accuracy with irons and solid putting a must to win
    • Texas weather could play a factor but nothing ominous in current forecast
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Off the Tee, Par 4 efficiency: (350-450)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.

Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.

Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.

Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.

Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri

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PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

The second major of the year in PGA DFS provides an opportunity for you to dominate with our winning picks and analysis at the PGA Championship.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Major championship field of 155 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend, no secondary cut
  • Third big event at this host course (second PGA Championship and one Ryder Cup)
  • The course: Kiawah Island Ocean Course (Kiawah Island, SC – Pete Dye design)
    • Par 72: 7,800+ yards – a very long course without too many birdie holes and trouble everywhere in the forms of ocean, cliffs, thick marshland vegetation and huge traps
    • Seven par 4s over 450 yards
    • All Paspalum surfaces and small greens – Paspalum grows with no grain, so less roll out and lots of spin
    • Fully exposed links-style layout, but fairways not wide open and wind will be a factor
    • Hard to find comps, but El Camaleon and Puntacana both have Paspalum and the toughest Pete Dye courses (Whistling Straits, Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass & TPC Stadium) provide some comparisons
  • Weather: Slight chance of some rain but mostly sunny skies Thursday and Sunday with best scoring day looking like Saturday (winds at just 10 mph)
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Short Game/Around the Green, Bogey and Three-Putt Avoidance, SG: Putting, Par 4: (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – Fresh off a one-stroke win at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, McIlroy is the betting favorite this week and the top-priced golfer on the board. While there’s no way I’m fading him completely this week, he’s bound to be popular, so I’m okay coming a little underweight on the field. The course – where he won the 2012 PGA Championship by a decisive eight shots – fits his game well. The eventual Hall of Famer from Northern Ireland is averaging 318 yards per drive this year, good for second on the PGA Tour, but his driving accuracy ranks just 175th – a stat that still scares me a little bit. He missed the cut at both the Players and the Masters, so he’ll be out to prove he’s truly back this week – right along with the cadre of fans he draws so much energy from.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,300) – JT’s win at the Players’ Championship on the Pete Dye design at TPC Sawgrass convinced me his game is in fine enough shape to contend at the coastal test of Kiawah Island – which earned the moniker “Looney Dunes” when it was played at the 1991 Ryder Cup. Thomas already has one PGA Championship under his belt (2017) on a course that provided a tough test for its competitors, and I like his ability to bounce back from bad bounces, bad holes and bad stretches a lot more than the sometimes erratic Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, who may currently lack the killer instinct and unflappable mindset to perform at his best this week. JT’s game is a complete one – and if he can continue to gain strokes around the green and get hot with the putter, the sky’s the limit.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,100) – Spieth has played excellent golf in 2021, and his ball-striking is finally coming around the match his epic short game. We did see Spieth chunk a few chips and pitches last week, but I’ll chalk that up to anecdotal errors and assume the empirical brilliance he’s demonstrated under pressure around the greens throughout his career will take precedence over a few minor flubs. Golf Digest ranked the Ocean Course the toughest in the country, and Tiger Woods has compared the Ocean Course’s long, links-like layout to Whistling Straits, where Spieth contended against eventual winner Jason Day in 2015. He’s a fine play in all formats, and since he’s healthy now, I like him a little better than the more expensive Dustin Johnson, who WD last week due to a knee injury.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Xander’s my favorite play in the lower half of the elite tier, although he’s still waiting to hoist his first major trophy after several close calls. Schauffele’s performance in majors during his brief career has been quite impressive – with top 25s in 11 of his 15 major events to date, including eight top 10s, six top 5s and a T3 just two starts ago at the Masters in April. Since then, he’s finished T11 at the Zurich alongside teammate Patrick Cantlay and T14 at the Wells Fargo. His time is coming, and this week might very well be it.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,300) – Hovland’s consistent play in 2021 includes just one MC and an incredible six finishes inside the Top 6 in his last 10 starts. He’s been a free square in cash games and provides ample GPP value despite his popularity in PGA DFS. He’s probably the least contrarian you can go if your goal is to build a safe lineup with some upside, and while he’s yet to win a major (or even crack a Top 10) in his young career, he’s not very far from greatness. His demeanor, his ball-striking and his positive attitude should go a long way this week in all formats.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – Smith is my favorite pick in the $8-9K range and I’ll be pinning a lot of my GPP hopes on him posting a Top 10 finish. He’s lodged somewhere in the top 15 or 20 power rankings for a lot of sharps this week, and his dominance on par 3s and par 5s over the past few months points to an ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. That, combined with his ability to avoid three-putts (third overall heading into this week) usually helps him get it done regardless of the venue.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,800) – Zalatoris seems to save his best golf for the biggest moments and the toughest golf courses, so he’s definitely one to watch this week at the Ocean Course. His seemingly effortless combination of power off the tee and precision on his approaches took a week off at the Wells Fargo, but he’s a very good bet for a Top 25 at Kiawah Island amid a strong field and a slew of big names who’ve already sealed the deal with multiple major wins. I’m not quite ready to go all-in just yet, but I’ll gladly get ahead of the field in my GPP ownership this week and see where it all shakes out.

Tony Finau (DK $8,600) – I’ve said “never again” too many times to count with Finau, but he’s talking confidently about his ability to win a major (despite just one career PGA Tour win to his credit) and he’s so damn good off the tee. I’ve thrown out a lot of the usual models I’ve been relying on for “lesser” tournaments since attitude and form go a long way in determining performance at a major championship venue this challenging, but Finau is one of the golfers who usually fares well on paper and just seems to lack the fortitude to finish tournaments. He’s flying under the radar this week and the team is off him, but for me there’s some leverage as a GPP pivot in the Will Z/Cam Smith range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,400) – Fitzpatrick killed a lot of PGA DFS lineups this past week but scoring fests like the Byron Nelson are not where the wispy Englishman plays his best golf. His overall short game and precise ball-striking are his biggest strengths, and while he’s not insanely long (No. 168 on tour in Driving Distance), he ranks 16th on tour in SG:OTT – a huge stat this week since missing the fairway won’t be an easy fix on most of these holes. Fitzpatrick is having his best season on the PGA tour in 2020-21, and I can’t advocate leaving him out of your player pool.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – Hatton ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in SG:APP and is in the top 20 for SG:OTT – the top two stats this week. While his performance around the greens remains his biggest bugaboo, he seems to step up and avoid three putts just enough on tough golf courses. He also should be recovered from the positive COVID test that forced him to withdraw from the Valspar in late April. The price is tempting, but I’ll be limiting my ownership levels to around 10% in GPPs since he’s yet to post a Top 15 finish on the PGA Tour in 2021.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,900) – Ancer is a cut-making and ball-striking machine who’s yet to post a Top 10 major championship finish, but he’s coming in extremely hot: solo fifth at the Valspar, solo second at the Wells Fargo – performances which came on the heels of five straight finishes in the Top 26. He’s always among the leaders in SG:APP and Bogey Avoidance, and the only thing that could keep him from posting another Top 25 this week is his short game. Still – he’ll be a GPP staple and is a fine play in just about any format.

Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – Playing a chalky Casey could end up burning me, but I don’t care. The pedigree and price are just too good to pass up this week. The missed cut at the RBC Heritage is just about the only blemish on his 2021 record, and he’s notched five top 10 finishes this year, including a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, which took place at a course grassed with – you guessed it – Paspalum. There are a lot of Euro Tour regulars I like this week, and Casey has proven to have winning upside on the International stage, even if he’s yet to notch a major win.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,600) – Please don’t forget about Leishman this week. He finished T5 at the Masters, and he’s had a slew of good performances in wind, something that he and fellow Aussie Cameron Smith know a lot about from the gusty tracks “down under.” He’s coming off a breezy T21 at TPC Craig Ranch and he finished T27 at Kiawah island in the 2012 PGA Championship. If he’s not mega-popular, I’ll be on board in GPPs and will consider him for a balanced single-entry build.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed (GPP), Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners (Cash)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – The price is way too low for his current form and ability with the driver and flat stick; his putting numbers have shown marked improvement in 2021 and are the main reason he’s been so good lately. His irons haven’t been awful either, and Burns will be a tough fade if you’re looking for balanced builds. The timing for him playing the best golf of his young career couldn’t be better, and he’s really easy to root for.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – The 34-year-old has loads of experience on Paspalum, and the way he’s been driving the ball and striking it, he’s going to be a core play of mine in single-entry, GPP and cash. I’ll be approaching 40 percent overall ownership and taking the big plunge. Bradley already has a PGA Championship under his belt – his lone major victory – and he’s playing the best golf of his career since that zenith, which came when he was just a young man of 25.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,300) – I don’t go overweight on Hoffman, but he plays his best golf in tough competition on long and challenging golf courses. He’s made eight straight cuts and finished outside the top 35 only once (a T52 at the Genesis Invitational) during that stretch – which includes a solo second at the Valero Texas open and consecutive T18s in his last two events.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100) – He’s just about the best value on the board, along with veterans Stewart Cink and Charl Schwartzel, and he’s yet to miss a cut in 2021 – a season that’s seen the tour veteran post a T9 at the Players and three more Top 15 finishes. It’s debatable whether or not his breakthrough win in 2020 has given him the confidence to finally contend at a major – where his performance over the past few years has been spotty at best – but this golf course seems to play to his strengths.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,900) – One of the most surprising stats about the 47-year-old PGA Tour stalwart’s recent resurgence is his Driving Distance (No. 23 on tour). That length should help him tackle these long par 4s and his No. 9 rank in Bogey Avoidance will hopefully get him another solid finish in the PGA Championship – a major he hasn’t played since 2018 when he finished T4 at Bellerive Country Club.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,800) – The Win Daily team has given you Schwartzel’s name week after week, and I’ve had him covered even before his T26 at the Masters and subsequent T21-T14-T3, a progression that’s been impressive considering the dynamic differences among the courses during that stretch. He’s one of a handful of golfers under $7K who I’ll be rostering in more than 15% of my GPP lineups, and he’s brimming with confidence heading into a major where he’s made the cut six straight times since a missed cut in 2013. Over the course of his career, Schwartzel has 18 Top 25s in the 52 major championships he’s played in a professional career that started when he was just 18 years old in 2002.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $6,800) – CBZ, as I like to call him for brevity’s sake, is my off-the-wall value play. He’s piqued my interest for his dominance around the greens, where he ranks second on the PGA tour in SG:ARG behind just Fabian Gomez. His ball-striking is a concern, but on a course that plays this difficult for everybody, I’m willing to take a chance and include him in a few of my 20-max GPPs.

Thomas Pieters (DK $6,800) – On the other end of the spectrum, we have a Belgian EURO golfer who strikes the ball well and is long enough off the tee to contend on this course. There’s not a lot of PGA Tour data, but his ranks put him among the Top 65 in plenty of key categories, and his form is decent. Before his missed cut at the Byron Nelson, he posted four straight Top 15s in tournaments here and abroad.

More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland (GPP), Lee Westwood, Matt Wallace, Brian Harman, Garrick Higgo, Max Homa (GPP), Matt Jones, Cameron Tringale, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Chris Kirk, Talor Gooch (GPP), Thomas Detry

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Dean Burmester (DK $6,300) –I love the form (Win-T4-T6 in his last three EURO events), and while he’s a huge risk playing inside the United States, where he’s only played two majors – both U.S. Opens (T56-MC). I won’t go into too much detail about the South African because I don’t have a lot – but in this price range I’m willing to use him a bit and hope he sneaks into the weekend and gets on a decent run.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,100) – There’s not a lot of golfers to seriously consider in this price range, but Poston’s putter (fourth on tour in SG:P) and distance off the tee (300+) gets him into the conversation. He doesn’t three-putt too much and while his ball-striking is a concern, once in a while he shines. For this price in GPPs, he can’t hurt you too much if you keep him under 10%.

Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele (GPP), Tom Lewis, Lanto Griffin, Erik van Rooyen, Harry Higgs, Andy Sullivan

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PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks and analysis is back this week, helping you construct some winning teams for the AT&T Byron Nelson at a new PGA tour stop.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Full, strong field of 156 golfers
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • First year at new course
  • The course: TPC Craig Ranch (McKinney, TX)
    • Par 72: 7,468 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Rowlett Creek runs through course, forcing layups and risk/reward shots
    • Birdie-fest expected, but no course history for PGA means some could struggle
    • Not many short par 3s (3/4 are 215+ yards), six par 4s over 450 yards
  • Decent weather expected and the wind doesn’t look like a huge issue so far
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4: (450-500), Proximity (175-200 & 200+)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Pricing is pretty tight this week, so finding value is going to be important – but with Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal we are left with just two golfers in the elite $11K range. Bryson’s form and his putting stats make him a little better choice than Rahm, but it was a very bizarre week for the reigning U.S. Open champ. Length is a significant advantage this week and we know Bryson has that in spades.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahm’s overall game (with an emphasis on tee game and putting) make him an obvious favorite this week, and your exposure will most likely be dictated by what value range you settle on with the rest of your builds. The missed cut at the Wells Fargo will keep some folks off him, but he’s still notched seven top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments.  

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,700) – The streak of events without a missed cut ended abruptly last week, but it’s a home game for Willie Z, who said he’s been playing here for half his life. I expect a huge bounce back for him and I really like his game off the tee and on the greens. Zalatoris has excellent metrics in the focus stat categories and is on the short list of players in this field that rank (over the last 36 rounds) inside the top 25 of both key proximity ranges 175-200 (fourth) and 200-plus (21st).

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,500) – I almost always have some shares of Fitzpatrick in PGA DFS, and while he’s okay tee-to-green, he really excels on the greens – which could be a huge factor on a course where guys will need to get hot with the flat stick to win. I tend to go heavier on Fitzy ownership when he’s playing Florida venues, but there’s no reason to think his debut win couldn’t come n Dallas. He’ll be a staple of my GPPs, especially the lineups where I fade that pricey $10-11K+ range.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Daniel Berger (GPP), Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,400) – Just like his buddy Will, Scheffler is on home turf looking for another Top 10 finish – something he’s been searching for since February when he notched a solo fifth at the WGC-Workday. He struggled on the greens at the Valspar, but his T2G game is solid and the price is fair.

Marc Leishman (DK $9,200) – It’s easy to forget about Leishman if you didn’t watch his win at the Zurich Classic alongside fellow Aussie Cameron Smith, because he hasn’t played in a standard PGA Tour event since the Masters, when he finished T5. A fine GPP play but far from safe since he missed the cut at both the Players and API.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,000) – His numbers putting on Bentgrass are pretty atrocious, but as Joel and Sia mentioned in the breakdown, a hot putter could have him holding a trophy come Sunday. I won’t go overboard in GPPs and will probably leave him off my single-entry builds but staying ahead of the field makes sense for his upside.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – He’s 35-1 to win the tournament outright, and I agree with Joel and Sia that it’s a good price. I like Kim for basically all formats this week as he’s shown some consistency since a string of missed cuts around February (MC at Farmers, AT&T Pebble Beach, Genesis, API). Ownership shouldn’t get too high, and he checks most of the boxes this week.

Luke List (DK $8,400) – Like Garcia, List’s biggest unknown from week-to-week is his putting, so there’s plenty of risk in rostering him. The T6 at the Wells Fargo points to a start of one of the hot stretches he’s known for, so I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs and will consider him for single-entry.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100) – I’ve been writing up Schwartzel for a few weeks in a row now (since his inclusion in my Masters picks, when he finished T26), and while I’m not quite as high on him to win outright as Sia and Joel (he’s 55-1), I think he’s a solid bet for a Top 25 and there’s nothing to hate about his game right now.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch’s irons have been on fire over the last few tournaments he’s played, and while his putting had been bad the week he missed the cut at the Valspar, he bounced back win a T26 at the Well Fargo and seems poised for a solid finish this week in Texas. I like the price and the Top 15 upside.

Also consider: Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Keith Mitchell, Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Camilo Villegas (DK $7,500) – Don’t look now, but in Villegas’s quest to regain his tour card, he’s put together four Top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments, including a T8 at the Honda Classic and T11 at the recent Valspar Championship. He’s striking and putting it well, and while he did withdraw form the Wells Fargo, that may just have been to prepare for this tournament on a course where he felt he might have an advantage.

Update: Villegas has withdrawn from the tournament.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,400) – Sneds heads into the week in solid form, and the veteran grinder with the signature pop-stroke putter has made four of his past five cuts, including a T6 at the Valero and a T11 at the Valspar. Normally his ball-striking is horrendous, but he’s notched positive strokes T2G in three consecutive starts and he’s a birdie-maker – especially on Bentgrass. I normally don’t look his way on courses that require elite SG: BS numbers, but this week he fits the bill.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – I like long hitters who can make lots of birdies, and Kizzire (though not the best on approach or with his irons) fills out that mold. When there’s little talk about hard-to-hit fairways and punishing rough, that’s my cue to include Kizzire in my player pool. His last impressive finish was T9 at the Valero Texas Open, but I’m counting on a Top 25 this week from the 6-foot-5 tour veteran.

James Hahn (DK $7,100) – This price range isn’t filled with too many sure things, and Hahn is far from a cash game play considering his three straight MCs. But it’s possible he’ still recovering from a rib injury and the week he feels better might be the week he starts a stretch of made cuts and decent finishes. Hahn is always a guy I look to for value in GPPs, and the fact that he finished second in a Korn Ferry championship on this golf course in 2012 means it’s a great place to get on the good foot and retrieve some of the confidence that’s essential to his game.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,000) – I’m not the only one who think Clark is a solid play at the Byron Nelson this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think he’ll still stay under the radar as a fine GPP play. Clark is insanely long off the tee and is just the kind of golfer who can get hot on a course where there’s no real history to speak of. Giddyup!

Andrew Putnam (DK $6,700) – He’s a putting demon on Bentgrass, and nobody is going to be on him this week. He’s one of about five or six players under $7K who I wouldn’t play in over 10% of GPPs, but who you can comfortably roster in the 5-10% range and not risk tanking too many lineups.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – There’s been plenty of chatter about the $7,000-7,500 guys including Vincent Whaley, Patrick Rodgers (after that scorching Thursday-Friday last week) and even Jhonattan Vegas, who everybody but me seems to be on this week, but Hadley seems to be the forgotten man in a value range that could be crucial if you’re rostering guys like DeChambeau and Rahm.

More value golfers to consider: Doug Ghim, Sepp Straka, Jhonattan Vegas, Scott Piercy, Patrick Rodgers, Vincent Whaley, Brice Garnett, Josh Teator, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – Hossler is a pretty good putter (T31 in SG:P heading into last week), and he’s an even better putter on Bentgrass, where he’s gained .458 strokes on average over his past 69 rounds. It’s a tough price range this week but Hossler could find his way into some of my GPPs.

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – TPC Craig Ranch is his home course (he’s a member), and he actually won the Byron Nelson at its old venue. Kang also loves Bentgrass, where he gains over a half stroke on average. There are wore narratives to hang your hat on.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – I’m not certain just how popular he’ll get this week, but I really love Ventura as a punt play in this severely discounted price range. He’s one of the best putters around and some projections have him squarely in the Top 50 this week – which means he’s a perfect final piece for all kinds of roster builds.

Additional GPP punts: Tyler McCumber (GPP), Mark Hubbard (GPP)

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PGA DFS Picks: Valspar Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Valspar Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Decent top-end in a full field of 156 golfers, but not an elite group
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
  • Canceled in 2020 due to COVID-19
  • 2019 (and 2018) champion: Paul Casey (-8 in ’19; -10 in ’18)
  • The course: Copperhead Course at Innisbrook Resort (Palm Harbour, FL)
    • Par 71: 7,340 yards
    • Bermuda greens
    • Tough track that played easier before 2015 renovations and a 2007 date change
    • Five par 3s, four par 5s
    • Tight fairways, water in play on 11 of 18 holes
    • Solid tee-to-green golf a must
    • AVOID THE SNAKE PIT (Holes 16-18 can bit you… and poison a victory with a multi-stroke swing come Sunday)
  • Some Friday afternoon wind will bump up (10-14 MPH) but weather looks great in the low 80s with no rain forecasted
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: T2G, Par 3s Gained: 200-225, SG: Short Game, Par 4s Gained: 400-450, Good Drives Gained

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is my top dog emcee this week, despite an embarrassing MC his last time out here at Copperhead in 2019. Feel free to drop him into your GPPs and hope for the A game on a course he should excel on — in a clime and locale he digs. Some tighter pricing at the very top will keep him lower owned than usual. He posted T10 in 2015 and T18 in 2016, but not tons of success here…yet. JT’s greatest strength in GPPs is both his predictability (on hard golf courses) and his relative unpredictability (when it comes to making cuts) in PGA DFS.

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – He’ll come in even lower than JT, so why not? I’m going to try to jam both of these guys in together in just one or two of 20 max GPPs – it’s a tough stars-and-scrubs route but not impossible if you deploy 2-3 of my punts in the $6,300-$6,700 range. DJ’s almost twice that, but I’m still fine coming in around the field on his ownership because he’s so frickin’ solid T2G. Again — in most cases we’ll be tasked with rostering one or the other, so you’ll have to pick your poison in the Justin-or-Dustin sweepstakes.

Paul Casey (DK $10,000) – I guess he likes it here, huh? Casey’s the defending champ two times over, so you know damn well he’s going to be popular – like Hell’s Ice Cream Man. I’m using some recent course history in my mixed model this week; as a result he’s No. 1 in the field four categories (three exclusive to Copperhead: SG:T2G, SG: Short Game and DK Pts), and the other a very impressive field-beater for Par 4s (400-450). Casey also ranks out as No. 5 in my Good Drives Gained metric and No. 3 overall in two categories tweaked for difficult fairways and scoring: SG: APP and SG: T2G. So hard to bet against him, but he’s definitely looking at 15-20% ownership this week in GPPs.

Corey Conners (DK $9,600) – He might be more of a cash play than GPP, because he’s becoming popular – and he’ll be more popular than Casey, even – for a reason. But yeah, I’d use him in single-entry GPPs, especially if you’re fading Casey. Conners finished T16 here (right with the next two golfers I wrote up, in fact) in 2018, and it’s a very viable trio again in 2021, with all three of them in my model’s Top 15.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $9,500) – So yeah, I love Louis and the high price – because it’s up with the big boys and he should fly under 12% owned in GPPs. Oosty has a T7 (2016), a T16 (2018) and a T2 (2019) at Copperhead and he’s swinging it great recently. The last tee shot he hit that folks watched got pushed it into the water – and he and teammate Charl Schwartzel lost in the first hole of a playoff at the Zurich Classic to Aussie bros and champs Marc Leishman and Cameron Smith. Not sure what effect that has, but I’m using King Louis of the Gorgeous Tempo in like 20-30% of my GPPs to get myself way ahead of the field.

Also consider: Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Patrick Reed (Cash)

Mid-Range Golfers (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,300) – Ancer’s solid driving, elite iron play and pin-seeking approaches should help keep him on point at Copperhead, where he finished T16 in his only appearance in 2018. No 4 in my mixed model, No. 3 in Par 4s (400-450), No. 8 in Good Drives Gained and No. 17 in the field for Par 3s (200-250). Impressive numbers for this T2G maestro that help me see him as a top cash and SE GPP play this week.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,200) – Our guy Joel may be “on a Sungjae kick,” but I’m just getting started because I’ve avoided him a bit like Sia has. This week, he’s popping up as No. 2 on my mixed model, and he notched a T4 here at the Valspar in 2019. I’ll have a hard time leaving him out of my player pool even if he’s 20% owned. Im’s approach game and recently competitive play indicate he’s the type of guy to look for here in a breakthrough.

Russell Henley (DK $9,000) – He’ll be popular, and Sia discussed why a little before when Joel confessed he’s a Sungjae believer on the breakdown. Henley pops in a lot of models, even though he hasn’t played well here aside from a T9 in 2017. I may not be into him like Sia – but I’m a little more bullish than Joel on him because of his T2G and approach abilities on tough courses like this.

Justin Rose (DK $8,800) – Always a better driver and ball-striker than a putter, Rose has hit a resurgent stride under the tutelage of Sean Foley and looks to be recovered from his back woes and wayward shots. He was one of the first guys I wrote in to discuss, arrives in great form and finished T5 here in 2018. I’m jumping aboard and I still think folks are wary to do the same – so he’s fine for GPPs at under 10-12% ownership. Glad to hear Sia is into him too. Watching Rose play the last few weeks has been a pleasure after his rough patch.

Jason Kokrak (DK $8,700) – He’s shaping up to be popular, and I like him for cash with Conners or Ancer (or maybe both). Good recent course history (consecutive top tens) and great form (3/4 top tens) His average finish at the event is 19th, and he even carded one of the individual top single-day scores in 2019 when he finished T2 with Oosthuizen. It wouldn’t surprise me if Kokrak was in contention on Sunday, so he’s on my short list in this price range.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – I’ll be looking at ownership before I make a final determination on how deep I’ll plunge in GPPs, and I’m really the most focused on his SG:APP numbers more than anything, so that might end up meaning I’m fine being close to where the field lands. I don’t want to be double it and overexpose, and I don’t want to miss out on a guy I really like playing each week for his ball-striking.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,300) – Putting is less important than T2G numbers here, so Grillo makes for a perfect GPP play. I landed on a lot of the same names as Joel and Sia this week, so the overlap in our Venn diagram of player pools could work out great for WinDaily subscribers if they really zero in with our builds. My piece on Grillo is that he won’t be quite as popular as the early ownership projections, because folks will get cold feet when they look at his course history here.

Chris Kirk (DK $8,200) – I know his course history isn’t great, but he’s just a better golfer now and he’s No. 30 on my model, which includes a data set of some assorted SGs (and DK points) from Copperhead over the past five seasons. That part isn’t too appealing, but he’s tackling all the other focus stats recently in this stretch of wonderful form. I wrote the start of this blurb right before I heard Sia point out in the breakdown about how he’s playing the best golf of his life at the moment – and a great value.

Talor Gooch (DK $8,000) – His numbers at Copperhead are awful, but he’s bound to come around here the second time he plays it, right? He’s a tough longshot play at 75-1 to win, but I like his Top 15 upside this week based on his SG:APP numbers and his dominance of Par 3s 200-225. There’s five par 3s here! And he hits the golf ball very well! Seriously, though, I’m getting me some GPP shares of the Goochmeister.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns, Keegan Bradley (GPP), Kevin Kisner, Lucas Glover, Adam Hadwin (GPP)

Value Plays (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – It’s his debut at Copperhead, but Griffin is the type of talent who could get in the Top 12-15 here in his first run. He shakes out well on the mixed model (No. 16 overall) and I don’t think the lack of experience should hurt him too much. He’s almost $1K cheaper than Grillo and has similar upside as an under-the-radar PGA DFS value play.

Danny Willett (DK $7,200) –A really good play in GPPS this week, Willett arrives in very good form and the former Masters champion is a whiz on this type of difficult track – which demands good shots into the par 3s and plays to his T2G strengths. The Englishman is one of the more talented players in this range, alongside Stenson and Griffin, and he’s hitting it crisp and straight.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $7,100) – I think being in contention alongside Oosthuizen last week helped him out tremendously, and I think the good memories of his 2016 win here are more than just a narrative on a course this tough, especially when you factor in the solo sixth place in 2017. Charl makes for a viable value play in a good majority of formats this week, as he was T26 at the Masters (another place he won) and I think he’ll still come in under 8% ownership. I’ll be pleased as punch if I can lock him into 15-20% of my GPP lineups and get that far ahead of the field, for his top 20 upside alone.

Henrik Stenson (DK $7,000) – He’s tops in the field in SG: APP on Copperhead over the past five events, so I’m going to be grabbing some shares at this low price – especially considering the dynamic track record and his ability to play well on tough courses. His short game isn’t great, but that’s not a focus stat this week, and his swing coach has him playing much better than in 2020. Stenson makes sense for use in some GPPs.

Tom Hoge (DK $7,000) – He’s almost always firmly in play in PGA DFS as a high-risk, high-reward GPP play unless the greens are very difficult, but that’s not the issue here. He’s No. 34 in my mixed model this week and I’m still waiting for that Top 5-10 I know he’s capable of if he can avoid the one bad round that usually spoils his eventual finish.

Ryan Moore (DK $6,900) – Moore grades out in the Top 10 of my model, but we’ve acknowledged that I’m taking course history into account – especially when it comes to searching for sub-$7K plays. There’s plenty to like about the current state of his game and the venue just works great, as he’s fifth in SG: T2G and SG:APP among the field over the Valspar’s past five events at Copperhead.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,800) – A good driver of the golf ball who’s pretty solid T2G, Stanley fits the course profile pretty well and should come in under 5% ownership, so he’s worth a look in GPPs. He’s far from masterful around the greens and on them, so SG: Short Game is my biggest concern when it comes to focus stats, but I can endorse up to 10% in 20 max GPPs and other large-field events.

More value golfers to consider: Denny McCarthy, Doug Ghim, Brandt Snedeker (GPP), Patton Kizzire (GPP), Rory Sabbatini (GPP), John Huh, Luke List, Chase Seiffert (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Ryan Armour (DK $6,500) – He’s missed the last two cuts but has played well here before, including a T9 in 2019. Think of him as the higher-risk, higher-reward Brian Stuard, who I’m also considering for a few GPPs. He’s No. 26 in the model that uses a data set including course history metrics. Armour is boom-or-bust in PGA DFS, but I might take the risk this week.

Cameron Percy (DK $6,500) – A perfect type of player to debut here and flirt with an early lead because he likes it. He should like it, as he tears apart Par 3s in the 200-225 range (tied for tops in the field over his last 50 rounds with Talor Gooch) and is No. 14 on my mixed model despite the glaring lack of course history. He doesn’t feel like a punt, so he could get a few more plays as folks realize that – but for you SW predictors in Discord and followers (I confess, I VERY MUCH AM one), he might come in a little higher (or lower) than 5%.

Wes Bryan (DK $6,400) – T25 at the Heritage and he’s played well here before. Large-field GPP only but someone to consider in your stars-and-scrubs builds. Known as a less-than-driver player, Bryan hits decent approaches when he’s allowed to club down from the big stick. He’s been learning to embrace tougher tracks like this, so he’s fine for 5-10% ownership in 20 max GPPs.

Sean O’Hair (DK $6,200) – He’s made the cut here a bunch of times AND has a T12 (2018) and T2 (2015) in his last two attempts here. O’Hair’s form is hot garbage, so he’s really only a consideration for enormous GPPs in limited ownership, but at least there’s a viable narrative – rare for this admittedly desperate price range in PGA DFS.

Additional GPP punts: Brian Stuard, Austin Cook (GPP), Danny Lee

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PGA DFS Picks: The 2021 Masters

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at The Masters and helping you find some winning teams to boost your bankroll!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced field of 88 golfers with all the big names
  • 36-hole Cut: Top 50 and ties (10-stroke rule NOT in effect)
  • Last year’s champion: Dustin Johnson (November)
  • The course: Augusta National (Donald Ross design)
    • Par 72: 7,475 yards
    • Bentgrass greens
    • Tournament is back to its usual April date, so the course will play differently than it did five months ago
    • Patrons are back at Augusta National
    • Winners typically come from PM Thursday/AM Friday groups
  • Wind will blow, course should play tough if it doesn’t rain at all
  • Focus Stat Categories: Course History, Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Driving Distance, Birdie or Better %, SG: Around the Green, Par 5 scoring

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,500) – Because of this week’s soft pricing and slew of viable golfers in the $7K range, getting DJ into your teams won’t be that much of a hassle, even with one more $9K and up player in the mix. Despite two less-than-stellar finishes at the WGC-Workday and Players Championship, DJ still offers the most consistent upside at this venue, where he won in November. It’s playing differently now, but he knows that. Don’t overthink this – get exposure to DJ in all formats.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – The Rahm/DJ combo leaves you with $6,875 per golfer for the remaining four slots on DK, and with some of the talent in this field, even those stars-and-scrubs teams don’t look too scrubby. But there are some key golfers I like in the $7.5-$8.5K range that I won’t be able to get if I use the top two salaries – so most of my teams will feature one or the other, and in some cases, neither. Rahm, a new father, seems a little more cash-viable than the next two guys, and he’s fine for single-entry GPPs.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,800) – I know he’s in Sia’s initial picks column and Joel loves him – and I agree he has plenty of upside – but Bryson’s aggressive approach on Par 4s worries me a bit. He tends to attack those holes and try to create his own scoring chances instead of treading water and waiting for his opportunities. If it didn’t work in November, when he finished T34, it may not work in April, even with the new driver that he says will mitigate the shot dispersal. I’ll tread lightly with him, but I think he’s fun to watch and root for.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,100) – Rory may very well be the same golfer who was dominating before the pandemic, but it’s hard to see that in his results. Still – he managed to finish T5 here in November and certainly has enough Top 10 finishes at Augusta (and no finish worse than T21 in his last five tries) to land in the Top 5 again. He’s never won here, but he’s guaranteed for low ownership relative to the rest of this bunch and that really intrigues me.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,800) – Like Sia, I like the price on Cantlay and think he’s about as solid an overall golfer as you can find in the field, without any glaring weaknesses and sporting a game face for the ages. Much like Patrick Reed, Cantlay is not here to make friends, and Augusta National is a fine a venue as any for his first major win. Ownership will probably end up between 15-20%, but I really like him for single-entry GPPs and I’ll have exposure in all formats.

Also consider: Justin Thomas (GPP), Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Jordan Spieth (DK $9,400) – Fresh off a win at the Valero, folks will be dying to play Spieth at the site of his greatest triumph and most epic collapse. He knows the course, he’s playing great golf (even if he’s still a little erratic off the tee and on some approaches), and I’ll have a hard time fading him, even when his ownership spikes. Last week I said I was excited to play him, and I clearly didn’t play him enough. My single-entry team had 5/6 make the cut and cash in every instance, but it earned about one-hundredth of what it should have because I had Tony Finau (the lone MC) instead of Spieth as my big spend.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,000) – Simpson’s course history is a lesson in perseverance and scholarship, as he’s learned how to “master” Augusta in recent years. Now in his tenth year playing the Masters, he’s in position for another Top 10 and continued, under-the-radar success. I’ll have Simpson at about 25% in my GPPs and he’s on the short list for my single-entry player pool. I may even play around with some Milly builds that have him as my only $9K and up player, and everybody else on the team is $7,700 and up.

Viktor Hovland (DK $8,700) – The experts are giving Hovland no love this week, and while he’s in the Top 20 of my model, I can understand why – as a really strong short game seems like a must to win at Augusta. Hovland may not be the best around the greens, but he’s awesome on Par 5s and that’s where most of the scoring is done at this golf course. If his ownership dips a little bit from the early projections, I’ll increase my shares.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,300) – I normally don’t play a lot of Matsuyama because of his erratic putting, but he has a bunch of Top 20 finishes at Augusta because of his amazing ball-striking and performance “around” the greens. His overall short game still ranks in the Top 40 of the field for Augusta and its closest course comps, and he seems to know where to miss in off the tee here, since he’s navigated his poor tee shots well in the past.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,100) – Fitzpatrick could have been priced at $9K and I’d have interest, because this is a course where he could win – if he can just elude the one bad round he seems to have at every major. His form is alarmingly consistent, with five straight Top 20s internationally and four straight within the Top 11 since the Genesis. He’s a fine play in all formats and there’s always the chance he finally breaks through.

Sergio Garcia (DK $7,900) – Garcia still hits it like a beast off the tee (long and straight) and he’s got the requisite experience at Augusta to tackle this difficult layout and win – or at least contend – again. He’s one of my favorite value plays in the mid-range and while there’s inherent risk with him because of his volatility, it’s a week without too many guarantees.

Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – A missed cut in 2019 (which started out with an uncharacteristic 81) is just about the only recent blemish on Casey’s record at Augusta, which includes a T6 in 2015, T4 in 2016 and solo 6th in 2017. He’s had a monster resurgence in 2021, with six straight finishes inside the Top 12, including a win in Dubai and T5s at both Pebble Beach and the Players.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Lee Westwood, Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Smith, Bubba Watson (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $7,500) – As long as his back doesn’t lock up before his tee time, Louis should be a solid pick this week at Augusta, where he almost always plays well. In many ways, Oosty is like the still-under-40, cheaper version of Lee Westwood. The South African has one thing that Westwood doesn’t – and that’s a major championship victory. He’s among the top golfers in this value range.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,300) – What Zalatoris lacks in experience he makes up for in talent and fearlessness, and he proved in the U.S. Open at Winged Foot he can take whatever a golf course and extremely windy conditions has to offer. He’s a solid bet to make the cut, and even though he’s a first-timer at Augusta, he’s played casual rounds and seems to understand (from quotes and interviews) how to play the course.

Max Homa (DK $7,100) – The fact that Homa won at Riviera factors into his inclusion in the value picks, because he’s got minimal experience here (just a missed cut at the November event) and finishes just inside the Top 40 on my model. But if I’m looking for GPP plays with confidence and upside, he’s a solid pick.

Corey Conners (DK $6,900) – If you’re looking to avoid chalk in GPPs and assume more risk, then maybe you’d prefer to spend the extra $100 and grab Victor Perez, who should come in under 5% ownership. But Conners is a much safer pick, with two made cuts in two tries and a top 10 in November. Granted, we could see a few three-putts and greenside abominations from the Canadian ball-striking sensation, but he’s so good tee-to green it might not matter. A staple in cash games for his low price and a guy to watch this year.

Si Woo Kim (DK $6,700) – The more I dig into the windy weather and the mixed model, the more I like Kim as a GPP risk-reward play. He’s made three straight cuts at Augusta after missing in his 2017 debut, and he’s got oodles of Top 25 upside this year. He already has one 2021 win (at the AMEX) and while he missed some cuts in February and withdrew at Bay Hill, his last two finishes are a T9 at the Players and T23 at the Valero last week. I’ll be massively overweight on the field and I’m thinking about using him on my largest field single-entry GPP.

Sebastian Munoz (DK $6,600) – It’ll be interesting to see how well Munoz makes the adjustment form his Masters debut in November to a much harder and faster course this week, but his recent form is solid (aside from a MC at the Players) and the price is fair. The Colombian golfer sports solid metrics on most of the course comps (excluding TPC Sawgrass) and could be an option as a last piece.

More value golfers to consider: Joaquin Niemann (GPP), Justin Rose (GPP), Billy Horschel, Victor Perez (GPP), Brian Harman, Matt Kuchar, Christian Bezuidenhout, Danny Willett, Phil Mickelson, Cameron Champ (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Carlos Ortiz (DK $6,500) – He’s a Masters virgin but has been practicing this week with Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia to learn the ropes of this famously difficult risk-reward layout. He seems to play the comp courses well and can get insanely hot with his short game, so I’m very interested in using him in a bunch of GPPs.

Kevin Na (DK $6,500) – Playing Na is always a bold move because he’s so prone to withdrawing due to injury and his game can be erratic, but his short game is elite and he’s underpriced for his upside here. He’s the ultimate GPP punt this week and he’s never all that popular because he scares the crap out of people.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,300) – A former Masters champion who placed third here in 2017, I’ll be using Schwartzel on a few of my GPP teams where I need salary relief from one or two spots because I’m playing two $10K+ studs. He’s in the top 50 of my model, so at this price we’re looking for a made cut and a couple birdie streaks during the weekend to land him a Top 25.

Additional punts: Robert Macintyre (GPP), Ryan Palmer (GPP), Zach Johnson, Jimmy Walker, Stewart Cink, Bernhard Langer

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PGA DFS Picks: The Players Championship

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re loading up another PGA DFS picks column to tackle TPC Sawgrass at the Players Championship and finding you some winning golfers this week.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Enormous, elite field of 154 golfers
  • Cut: Top 65 and ties after 36 holes
  • No 2020 winner due to COVID: 2019 winner was Rory McIlroy (-16)
  • The course: TPC Sawgrass (Ponte Vedra, FL – Pete Dye design
    • Par 72 (7,189 yards)
    • Water everywhere on this difficult, risk-reward golf course
    • Plays longer in March than it did in May
    • Bermuda turf overseeded with ryegrass; dormant, speedy Bermuda greens overseeded with velvet bent and poa trivialis
    • Look for big scoring spreads like at Bay Hill
    • Wind probably won’t blow like it did at Bay Hill
  • 6/6 will be tougher this week in the huge field
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Par 4 scoring, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Opportunities Gained, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,200) – Joel and Sia did a great job explaining how there’s a lot of different ways to approach your build this week in the breakdown, and there’s not really one right answer. But if I’m entering 10 GPP lineups, I’ll probably start with DJ and one of the $9K guys, be it JT, Webb, Morikawa or Cantlay. It’s a great spot to get some leverage by using the guy I think is most talented golfer in the field at twice (or more) the projected ownership. He’s talked about how he likes this venue in March more than May, and he’s No. 1 in my model by a long shot. He’ll be the anchor of my single-entry lineups and there’s really no good reason to fade him.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Rory continues to struggle with closing out tournaments, and the fact that he’s technically the defending champ here doesn’t inspire additional confidence on a golf course that’s given him problems in the past. The risk-reward nature of TPC Sawgrass and its reputation as the “fifth major” lends more similarity to the Masters and Augusta National more than any of the other majors, and McIlroy has yet to “master” what it takes to win among the azaleas. He could easily play solid golf and score another top ten, but I won’t be overweight on Rory this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $9,900) – This is probably the week where I take my biggest stand on JT, because there’s a little bit of a discount and because I can’t imagine the field going too heavy on ownership on a player who’s missed two of his last four cuts. But there’s plenty to like about some of the things we’ve seen Thomas do in his recent rounds, and my model reflects it as he’s No. 3 on my list. The opportunities have been there and it’s exactly the kind of venue where JT could post a couple really low scores and find himself at the top of the leaderboard after two or three rounds.

Webb Simpson (DK $9,500) – Webb is probably the best way to start building in cash games and he’s a candidate for single-entry anchor because of how well he’s played TPC Sawgrass over the past three attempts. He’s fifth on my overall model and he ranks second in the field (over his past 36 rounds) in SG:APP on correlative courses (including Bay Hill, Augusta National, TPC Boston, Shesan International and Quail Hollow). There’s no clear weakness to his game – he ranks 60th or better in every focus stat metric that matters this week – and the price is excellent.

Also consider: Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, Bryson DeChambeau (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Colin Morikawa (DK $9,400) – We don’t necessarily have to look to Morikawa this week, because the official records don’t indicate any course history here, but a little digging shows us that he started off last year’s event quite well (-4) in a bizarre first-round environment that saw no fans allowed on the grounds before the tournament was canceled amid the creeping horror of the pandemic. He’s an incredible ball striker and he’s made strides in his short game, but I’m leaning toward more shares of the next two guys on this list for the comparative discount.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,200) – Cantlay is an incredible golfer from tee-to-green and he’s in the top 15 of my model. He’s yet to really break through at the Players but he has a couple of Top 25 finishes and his last six tournaments haven’t yielded a finish worse than T17, performances that included a win at the ZOZO, a solo second at the AMEX, and a T3 at Pebble Beach. The biggest knock is the fact that he withdrew from the WGC-Workday with an illness/dehydration, but that could have just been a stomach bug that really left him in the dumps – pun intended.

Tony Finau ($9,100) – Like DJ, there’s no discernible reason to exclude Finau from your lineups this week, especially at such an affordable price. My biggest concern is his SG:ARG on correlative courses, but with the overseeding of these Bermudagrass greens, we’re going to see the surfaces a little more speedy – just how he likes them. The scoring opportunities for Finau (No. 10 overall on my model and No. 9 in the field for Opps Gained) should be there this week and I’m definitely going to be overweight on the field.

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $8,700) – If you clicked the link about last year’s first round scores, Hideki fired a nine-under par 63 and tied the course record in the doomed 2020 event, and the ball-striking sensation seems to like how the greens roll here in March, as he finished T8 here in 2019 when they made the switch. Even if he struggles with his putter a bit, the T2G game should carry him through and get his name in the mix on Sunday.

Paul Casey (DK $8,400) – Casey is a feast-or-famine GPP play who’s had a mixed bag of results at the Players, but he’s a good fit in this price range and he’s been striking the ball extremely well en route to some international success at Dubai, where he won, and locally at Bay Hill last week, when he finished T10. His T2G numbers on Pete Dye courses are solid, and he’s got the chops and nerves of steel to win at TPC Sawgrass.

Adam Scott (DK $8,100) – Scott makes more sense for cash than GPPs, as he sports a more-than-decent course history here and has been making cuts lately – but has just one top 10 finish (T10 at the Farmers) since the U.S. Open in September 2020. He’s usable in tournaments as a last piece, but he’s not very exciting and not part of my GPP core.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $7,900) – Sia’s betting the farm on Fleetwood notching the low score of day one at an enticing 66-1, and that’s a really amazing price for a golfer as talented as Fairway Jesus – who’s been striking the ball quite well as of late. He’s got plenty of upside and seems to play his best in big events – and the Players qualifies. A top 10 finish wouldn’t surprise me.

Cameron Smith (DK $7,900) – This is a tough call for GPPs, because game log watchers will see his recent finishes and be inspired, while course history hounds might get scared off by the missed cuts in 2017 and 2018. But the switch to March yielded a better result (he made the cut) in 2019, so I’m willing to throw out the previous struggles and focus more on the form and his attractive No. 34 spot in my mixed model.

Will Zalatoris (DK $7,600) – Another talented golfer who saves his best golf for tough tracks and strong fields, Zalatoris is getting his first crack at TPC Sawgrass but seems to have a game that translates to any venue. He’s solid off the tee, he doesn’t make big numbers, and he’s a fine large-field GPP or single-entry tourney play at this price.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Daniel Berger, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell Hatton (GPP), Matthew Fitzpatrick, Jason Day, Louis Oosthuizen (GPP), Jason Kokrak, Joaquin Niemann

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,500) – We can thank the soft pricing for Ancer making the value range at just $7,500 this week, and while he doesn’t spike a top 10 rank in any one key metric heading into the Players, he’s a top-notch ball striker who finished T12 (right alongside Rahm and Joel Dahmen) at this event in 2019. I’ll be ahead of the field in GPPs at hopefully around 20-25% in my 20-max, and he’s on the short list for consideration in SE.

Russell Henley (DK $7,400) – Henley is my “off-the-wall, model-loves-him” GPP play this week, because he’s had a pretty rough go of it in his last four tries here. A little more course history research shows a T24 and T17 in 2015 and 2014, so there’s some room for optimism. It makes sense that when the course played a little faster tee-to-green, he had more success, especially when you consider his less-than-stellar SG:OTT numbers. But Henley usually avoids the big numbers, hit great approaches and has a decent-enough short game to compete with the best, so I’m mixing him into my GPP builds.

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,300) – Griffin appears to be taking the next step forward in his career as he gains more confidence, and since his MC at the AMEX he’s posted four straight finishes of T26 or better, including a T21 at the API last week. It’s not a course where too many golfers play “lights-out” in their inaugural run, but he’s going to make a few of my GPP lineups.

Cameron Tringale (DK $7,200) – Tringale hasn’t played here since 2017, but he’s made the cut in three of his last four tries and has a T35 and T16 in his last two runs at Sawgrass. He and Chris Kirk (No. 9 overall) are the only $7K golfers in the top 10 of my model this week, and Tringale’s ranking at No. 7 is largely a result of a solid short game, a high rank in bogey avoidance and SG:APP on correlative courses. He’s worth a look.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,100) – He wasn’t on my initial list, but the more I dig into his recent form (T7 at the API) and the revelation that he was -7 in last year’s first round. The dude can putt like a demon and he’s solid around the green, so if he can keep it in the fairways (and there’s a lot of less-than-driver here so that should help his chances), there’s no reason he can’t find a Top 10. He’s probably going to be on my single-entry teams and I’ll be close to 40 percent in large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,000) – The other of my $7K model darlings, Kirk makes for fine value in any format and his biggest weakness (putting) becomes a veritable strength on fast surfaces, which TPC Sawgrass should provide this week. He might be popular, as he’s projected around 11-12% right now, but I’ll have shares close to or exceeding that in GPPs.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $6,700) – Grillo is the best ball striker you’ll ever see under $7K and his reputation of having a poor short game is probably the reason he’s not projected over 10% ownership this week. I like his chances of making the cut (3-for-his-last-4 at the Players with a T11 in 2017) and he’s played well in three of his last four events (T21-T11-MC-T22), and the missed cut at the Genesis was the result of a 72-73 opening two rounds, which isn’t that horrendous.

More value golfers to consider: Sergio Garcia, Marc Leishman (GPP), Corey Conners, Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Kevin Kisner (GPP), Cameron Davis (GPP), Keegan Bradley, Alex Noren, Harold Varner III, Mackenzie Hughes

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Richy Werenski (DK $6,400) – The main reason I’m considering Werenski is his immediate form, as he finished T4 last week at Bay Hill, and while normally in a field this size and strength I’d be scared of the golfers under $6,500, we’ve got a few high-upside guys this week. He’s not great off the tee, but as we discussed, that could be mitigated (like last week) with more “less-than-driver” than usual.

Doug Ghim (DK $6,200) – Ghim could blow up and make a couple of double-bogeys in his first four holes, but he’s also capable of firing a 65 on day one and putting himself in decent position for making the cut and posting a top 25 finish. It’s hard to recommend using him at more than 10 percent, but at that rate you’ll be around 2x the field ownership.

Jason Dufner (DK $6,100) – Dufner has a major championship under his belt and while that was a long time ago, he’s made four cuts in a row at the Players including a T5 in 2018, and he’s better-than-average on tougher courses with his ball-striking and prefers fast greens. Don’t go overboard, but he’s fine to grab in 1/20 since nobody will be on him.

Additional punts: Nick Taylor, Rory Sabbatini, Jhonattan Vegas, Harry Higgs (GPP)

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Daily Fantasy SportsPGA

PGA DFS Picks: Genesis Invitational

jason mezrahi
written by jason mezrahi

We’re hot on the trail of some lucrative PGA DFS picks, looking for a big payday at the Genesis Invitational and helping you find some winning teams!

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

  • Reduced, elite invitational field of 120 golfers
  • Cut: 36 holes, Top 65 and ties
  • 2020 winner: Adam Scott (-11)
  • The course: Riviera Country Club (Pacific Palisades, CA)
    • Par 71, 7,300+ yards
    • Redesigned by Tom Fazio in 2008
    • Hard-to-hit fairways and greens, but everybody knows what to expect here
    • Kikuyu fairways and rough can make for tough sledding in bad lies
    • Old, quirky design with doglegs and a driveable but difficult 315-yard Par 4 (Hole #10)
    • FAST Poa annua greens – three putts will abound
  • Sunny but cool weather (course will play longer in the mornings) this week
  • Wind expected around 7-10 MPH first two days, then blowing a bit harder
  • Recent (West Coast) form an important factor at Riviera
  • Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Tee to Green, SG: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,300) – DJ has a solid course history (he ran away with the event in 2017 with a -17 score, five strokes clear of Thomas Pieters) and he is the betting favorite with ownership expected around 15-20 percent. One way to approach that in GPPs is by doubling the expected field ownership – a strategy I used last week with Patrick Cantlay.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,700) – Thomas won’t be as popular as usual this week in GPPs, but he’s second in my model and he almost won here in 2019 – choking away his shot at victory with a four-over-par 75 in the final round. JT actually missed the cut here last season, so there are some bad vibes he’d like to exorcise. I’ll definitely have shares, but he’s almost a contrarian play this week.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,500) – Rory debuted at the Waste Management at TPC Scottsdale with a somewhat disappointing T13 and has nine consecutive top 25s. The troublesome part is that his last win came in November 2019 at the WGC-HSBC, so he’s a risky play at this price point. Perhaps his consecutive Top 5 finishes at Riviera and ability to both avoid bogeys and gain strokes off the tee (tops in the field in both categories) will allow for a breakthrough win.

Jon Rahm (DK $10,400) – Rahmbo drives it well, is a maestro on and around the green, and has been less affected by bad breaks as he matures. Let’s remember – the Spaniard is still just 26 years old, a fact that makes his failure to notch more than one Top 5 (T2 at the ZOZO in October) since September a bit more palatable. What he does have is six straight Top 15 finishes since his T23 at the U.S. Open, and the ability to win at just about any event.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $10,100) – If there’s a course that favors Bryson the Beefy Big Boy, his aggressive lines, bomb-and-gouge style and arm-lock putting style, it’s Riviera – because he’s still pretty decent around the greens and the ultra-fast Poa Annua could favor his ability to get the ball on the right line. He may not be the best cash game play because he’s still pretty volatile and he can let a few bogeys and bad shots get the better of him but taking a stand with him at 30-40% in GPPs could really pay off this week.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,900) – Schauffele (No. 10 on my mixed model)  arrives with consecutive T2 finishes at Torrey Pines and TPC Scottsdale and is a California kid playing in an event that favors high-performing West Coast swing golfers. He’s a near lock for cash games and single-entry tournaments and I’ll have plenty of shares (shooting for around 25-30 percent to stay ahead of the field) in large field GPPs.

Also consider: Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Cantlay (Cash), Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Tony Finau (DK $9,300) – Finau could almost be a better cash game play than GPP this week, because he’s a great course fit who has made three straight cuts at Riviera – including a T2 in 2018 – and he usually sucks in the final round. We know he can burn us, but he’s No. 8 on my model because of his strength T2G, only lacking in the short game components and closing the deal on Sundays.

Adam Scott (DK $9,000) – The Aussie is a relatively safe play in all formats and I won’t talk you off including his in single entry – but he’s struggled to finish in the Top 10 (his T10 at Torrey Pines is his first since his two-shot victory here last year in a similarly strong field. That win came after a furious comeback that saw his make up eight shots over the last three rounds. Scott likes it here – he has six top 10s in 12 starts and is the tournament’s all-time earnings leader, according to PGATour.com.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – Bubba is a course horse and a great narrative this week (go read the recent PGA Tour article about his struggles with mental illness), so I’m grabbing a few shares in GPPs and hopefully coming in around the field number. He’s a “self-taught, highly visual” player (and No. 25 on my model) who has won here twice despite his volatility and tendency to make a few bogeys.

Max Homa (DK $8,200) – Homa’s game is really rounding into form (five straight made cuts after his MC at the Masters) and he’s starting to seem more comfortable on the leaderboard – something that could come in handy in this tough field. My model isn’t in love with him (his T2G and ARG game don’t crack the Top 100), but he’s a local resident who finished T7 at Pebble Beach last week and notched a personal-best T5 at Riviera last year, so I’ll be overweight in GPPs and he might make my single-entry GPP when it’s all said and done.

Kevin Na (DK $7,900) – Na is the prototypical GPP play this week on a course where he’s had lots of success (T2 in 2018 and T4 in 2017) and a few dismal outcomes (MCs in 2015 and 2020). His Top 5 upside makes him a superb tournament option at this price point, and his 2021 form (a win at the Sony Open in January and a T21 in his last start in a EURO event at the Saudi International, keeps my confidence high enough to roster him in this tough field.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,800) – I know that his high ownership is going to scare folks off – Joel and Sia both talked about it in the breakdown video, but I still like his chance at a  Top 10 here and might just try to outpace the field by locking him into a third of my large-field GPP lineups. Just be conscious of his ownership this week and know that everyone (and their mothers) will be on him.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $7,600) – Joel brought up my bae Fitzy in the breakdown, and while the wispy Englishman is not popping on my model and he hasn’t played the West Coast swing, there’s plenty to like about his short game and what he could do at a second try at Riviera (T30 in his debut last year). He’s not a long hitter, but he likes super-fast greens and doesn’t make a ton of bogeys – which could keep him in contention if he can avoid the one bad round that sometimes plagues him.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (GPP), Hideki Matsuyama, Joaquin Niemann, Marc Leishman (GPP), Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Cameron Smith, Jason Kokrak, Abraham Ancer, Gary Woodland, Sergio Garcia, Cameron Tringale

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

James Hahn (DK $7,500) – Hahn checks a few boxes this week, from his West Coast form to his excellent course history at Riviera and inclusion in the Top 50 of my model. As long as ownership doesn’t eclipse 10%, he’ll make about 1/5 (or more) of my GPP builds.

Sam Burns (DK $7,400) – A big hitter with the tee ball game and lots of scoring upside, Burns is a dynamic player who’s fared well on the West Coast and hasn’t missed a cut since a disappointing performance at the Sanderson Farms Championship in early October. If he can scramble a little better than usual this week, he could contend.

Luke List (DK $7,300) – Both Sia and I are drawn to List and his dynamic game, and he’s shown an affinity for this venue despite some periodic struggles where good golf seems to somehow allude him. The long-hitting tour veteran has made four of his last five cuts here highlighted by three straight top 30 finishes, and he’s No. 23 on my mixed model – good enough to make a handful of my 20 max lineups and one or two large-field GPPs like the one on DK that pays $300K to the winner.

Matt Kuchar (DK $7,200) – His last Top 10 was a T2 at last year’s Genesis Invitational, and the rest of his record here is pretty impressive. But last year’s finish came after a T16 at the Waste Management and T38 at Pebble Beach, so there was some form to consider. I can’t possibly recommend enormous shares of Kuchar this week, but he’s an elite scrambler and he could make for a decent fit in a lineup where you’re rostering DJ, DeChambeau and a bunch of guys around $7K.

Kyoung-Hoon Lee (DK $7,100) – K.H. has a great track record at Riviera and is somehow staying under the radar and 10% ownership despite a T2 at the Waste Management Open a couple of weeks ago – a tournament where he made just five bogeys in four days. There’s reasonable Top 10 upside this week despite the affordable price, and he’s got a good shot at making my big-money (for me) single-entry GPP team.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The WinDaily golf writer group text discussion kicked off this week with some Reavie talk, and I was immediately intrigued. This may be the precise moment to jump on him and ride him for a few events, because it’s all about timing with a low-owned Chez – who can have stretches of solid play and is coming off a T16 at Pebble Beach. The season stats are somewhat unimpressive, but he’s an excellent ball striker who’s had two top 10s in his last five tries at Riviera – two of the other three being missed cuts. Last year’s T10 here was on the heels of a T25 finish at the AT&T, and he just cracks the Top 50 of my model this week.

Joel Dahmen (DK $6,900) – Sia loves him for one good round, and Joel loves him for his sexy first name, but Dahmen’s game is pretty solid all-round and he’s finished T5 here last year, which was tied for his best finish of 2020 (the other being a T5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational). I won’t have big shares, but 10 percent of my GPPs will keep me way ahead of the field and allow for some leverage if he puts together three good rounds and posts a Top 25.

Michael Thompson (DL $6,700) – Thompson did have a MC at the Waste Management sandwiched between a T5 at the AMEX and a solid-enough T34 at Pebble Beach last week, but he’s a solid value play in a price range that usually doesn’t feature much Top 10 upside – which Thompson flashed at this very event with a T7 in 2019. The model isn’t farting out roses when it comes to Mr. T, but there’s a case to be made for his low-owned keister in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis (GPP), Lanto Griffin, Adam Hadwin, Talor Gooch (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Matthew NeSmith, Charles Howell (Cash), Harold Varner III, Brandon Grace (GPP), Vaughn Taylor, Scott Piercy

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – Kang has been bad in 2021, but he wasn’t exceptional in 2020 when he posted a T2 at the Genesis Invitational. He’s a super high risk play only suited for 1/20 studs-and-scrubs GPPs, but that’s right around where his ownership will be because of he hasn’t missed a cut here.

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – Stuard is my favorite play under $6,500, and that’s mainly because he’s 3-for-4 here with a Top 25 last year, his form is decent (made cut in Phoenix and T16 at Pebble Beach last week) and he’s really good around the greens. He’s probably not gaining many strokes off the tee this week, but the T2G numbers are okay and he’s super cheap.

Pat Perez (DK $6,400) – Perez has had a rough 2021 but he’s trending up with a T26 last week and there’s plenty of correlation between Pebble and Riviera to weigh that more heavily than the four straight missed cuts in October-November. Conversely, he’s MADE four straight cuts in the Genesis and should fly under the radar this week.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,300) – I think Hubbard is mispriced at just $6,300 this week, because he’s very strong out of the gate (with opening rounds of 63 and 66 in his last two events) and has made seven of his last nine cuts. Perhaps he’s best used in first-round lineups or as a prop bet for low round of day, but I’m going to mix him into my GPPs. He hasn’t played here since 2017 but snuck under the cutline in his only two attempts.

Additional punt options: J.B. Holmes (GPP), Jim Furyk, Denny McCarthy (GPP), C.T. Pan, Jimmy Walker (GPP)

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    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    LISTEN TO WIN DAILY®RADIO
    Saturdays: 6-8PM EST

    WIN DAILY® RADIO
    Friday’s 8-10pm Est
    Sunday’s 7-9pm EST

    GET STARTED TODAY

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
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