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Sports Betting

MLBMA Premium Algo Results 7.2.19

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Sports Betting

A Quick Intro to MLBMA & The Application of ORC+/PRA+

MLBMA incorporates technical analysis & trading techniques towards the current MLB space. I’ve created some new custom stats we’ll be using going forward that will encompass all the prerequisites and save us all a ridiculous amount of time. For example, a team with a high grade in Offensive Runs Created (ORC) means it has already passed rigorous standards on combinations of weighted rolling averages, trend & split tests. To list all of the pertinent stats individually is a waste of precious time we don’t have in a 24/7 MLB market. Also if you’ve been following along this season, you have an idea of the structure of my statistical arguments. Ultimately my goal is to provide you with the most comprehensive & unique snapshot of any given MLB slate in an instant. I want it to cater to those without tons of time to do their own data mining, and be immediately effective across all formats. This type of system requires only the most serious, thinking players; Those determined to provide sustainable income over the long haul. This type of board analysis isn’t child’s play. MLBMA is a 24/7 profit mindset. Remember that profit alone is the name of the game, and efficacy is paramount. I bet, I play DFS and I play fantasy. This table readout serves all three simultaneously, providing you speak the language.

MLBMA: ORC+/PRA+ KEY

  • ORC% – Offensive Runs Created, as a percentage of the league average
  • ORC+ – Offensive Runs Created, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 
  • PRA% – Pitching Runs Allowed, as a percentage of the league average
  • PRA+ – Pitching Runs Allowed, where the league average for teams is 100, and every point above 100 is a percentage point above league average. 

The conditional formatting for the board is set similarly to the incomparable Baseball Savant where red is elite, all the way down to blue being the worst. So regardless which side of the ball we’re analyzing, we’re always looking for the color red and higher numbers on ORC+/PRA+.

You’ll also notice teams have different colors assigned to them. This is based on team wOBA over the last seven days, updated daily. Think of it as being on a heat scale. I always like to keep a team’s last 250 PA in mind before making my decisions. It’s a very helpful tool in avoiding a buzzsaw.

  • Red > .340
  • Orange .325 – .339
  • Yellow .291 – .325
  • Blue < .290

The highest probability hits are highlighted in green, with the specific play detailed within.

The ML Plays:

  • CLE F5ML + TB ML = (+102)
  • MIA +0.5 F5RL = (+105)
  • BOS F5ML = (-160)
  • LAD -1.5 RL = (-125)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 5 (Using LAD ML) = +860

The O/u Plays:

  • CHC/PIT O9 – Since I started, the line shifted up to 9.5. Since we needed ten runs to win this one anyway, I’ll take the current O9.5 (+100)
  • BOS/TOR O9.5 (-115)
  • PHI/ATL O9.5 – This one also moved up since this am. Now at 10. I really hate to concede that extra run; Now we need eleven to cash. The offenses aren’t playing that well to chase here. I’m letting this one go.
  • NYY/NYM O9 (-120)
  • UNICORN PARLAY – ALL 3 (+586)

It’s always tricky when it comes to game strategy in betting. In my opinion strategy has to be custom tailored to the individual, their goals and expectations. I move my patterns as well as risk depending on performance that quarter. I tend to scale down into drawdowns. Not everyone likes to be so fluid. Some players only play straight bets; You can use this information however you like, which is why it’s so useful across different formats.

Tonight, I think I may also change that LAD RL to ML & pack it with the previously posted BOS F5ML for (+128)

And if the clouds part just for us, an eight for eight sweep pays +6485 (or $7.71 pays $500 for the beginner). Thanks to the beauty of internet gaming, it’s always worth it for me to take a cheap flier on my night’s work. I see it as an overhead cost for my business. I actually maintain a certain percentage of my venture’s overall risk for low risk/high reward parlays of my algo results. Gambling sports is a strange animal at times, and results can happen in bunches. Already this season I have at least three different occasions where the algo cleared the board that particular day (check @mlbmovingavg on Twitter) and went at least 7 for 7. By playing a small amount every day, I was able to be alive and active in the game long enough to get those big hits.

Let’s get it.

Baseball Twitter's Robin Hood. Lifetime baseball fan, avid capper and fantasy baseball player. 15+ years of stock trading experience, specializing in risk management and advanced game theories. Creator of the MLB Moving Averages algorithm in 2018

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