PGA GPP

Here are the links to Bettor Golf and PGA DraftCast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Patrick Cantlay ($10,700)  – Cantlay ranks first in the field for par-five birdie or better percentage and is also the top golfer for overall birdie or better. With over 40 players an event reaching double-digit totals, expect the American to use that strength to his advantage, and he also grades as the fourth-rated putter in this field to mimic the track.

Will Zalatoris ($10,400) – Is a birdie fest the best venue for Will Zalatoris? Maybe not. But the American does grade as the top player in the field for expected opportunities created, which means if the putter can be marginally above his baseline expectation, there is a chance he runs away with the title. I am willing to bet on that upside at a reduced ownership percentage.

Other Considerations – I have no issues going back to Tony Finau at ($10,600), although I am out on Cameron Young.

$9,000 Range

Max Homa ($9,900) – Homa’s ability to create opportunities and make the putts places him third in this field – not to mention the par-five scoring is also inside the top-15.

Cameron Davis ($9,700) – I don’t care for the ownership, but I love the statistical profile. Davis has a legit chance to compete on the first page of the leaderboard again.

Other Targets: Adam Scott ($9,300)

$8,000 Range

Adam Hadwin ($8,400) – I am always interested in golfers at sub-10 percent ownership who possess top-10 equity in the $8,000 range.

Webb Simpson ($8,300) – Just consider me a broken record at this point. Simpson’s statistical makeup is too good to continue this poor run. The breakout will happen before long.

Other Thoughts: Russell Henley ($8,200) – GPP-Only. Mark Hubbard ($8,000).

$7,000 Range

Si Woo Kim ($7,900) – Kim is always intriguing when he is trending around five percent because of his upside. You would be taking a shot on some of the unknown, but we have gotten extremely positive returns in the past when doing that with him.

Chris Kirk ($7,800) – The offshore market loves Chris Kirk.

Joohyung Kim ($7,600) – The price remains similar from last week’s 3M Open, but the ownership will be cut in half.

C.T. Pan ($7,300) – The ball-striking has started to pick up for Pan, who has gained with his irons in 10 of his last 12 and off the tee in seven of nine. 

Rickie Fowler ($7,300) – Fowler graded as a positive value in all iterations of my model.

Michael Gligic ($7,000) – There are some concerns with how the long-term metrics compare to the recent form for Gligic, which always means the ground underneath him could sink at any moment, but his top-40 statistical rank over a two-year sample size is good enough for me to trust that the floor is higher than you might expect. 

Austin Smotherman ($7,000) – Smotherman improves 26 spots in expected putting on this particular green complex – something that could help since he is one of the best ball-strikers in the field. 

Additional Thoughts: Chris Gotterup ($7,400) – I have no issues with the ownership. You will have to make a decision on how aggressive you want to get. Stewart Cink ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Lucas Glover $6,900, John Huh $6,800, Kelly Kraft $6,700, Matt Wallace $6,700, Justin Lower $6,600, Andrew Novak $6,400, Aaron Baddeley $6,200, Seung-Yul Noh $6,000

*** Noh is my favorite dart throw on the board

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There is no Bettor Golf Podcast this week, but here is the link to the PGA DraftCast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Sungjae Im ($10,000)  – You can’t go wrong with anyone in this range, but Sungjae Im would be my preferred choice since I think we ultimately receive the lowest ownership on him. Sometimes it is just a numbers game when there are only seven players priced above $9,000, but there is a reason all three golfers in this section rank inside the top three of my model for upside.

Other Considerations – Tony Finau $10,500, Hideki Matsuyama $10,300

$9,000 Range

Maverick McNealy ($9,300) – Bentgrass courses that allow birdie-making opportunities has always been where McNealy has thrived, and the pieces feel like they might finally be coming together for him to spring his first victory on the PGA Tour.

Other Targets: I am okay with the idea of finding myself underweight to everyone else. A start of McNealy as your first man in or one of the big-three + McNealy is my ideal roster construction at the 3M.

$8,000 Range

Cameron Tringale ($8,800) – Cameron Tringale feels like one of the better pivots on the board because of his reduction in ownership compared to the rest of the range.

Martin Laird ($8,200) – My intrigue around Laird is coming because of his inflated price tag that has reduced his ownership percentage.

Other Thoughts: Cameron Davis ($8,900) – I don’t love the ownership, but there are ways to be aggressive playing him.

$7,000 Range

Ryan Palmer($7,900) – Palmer ranks sixth in my model at TPC courses and is also second on short par-fours – a range he will get five times at some of the more accessible locations at the track.

Emiliano Grillo ($7,600) – The stats always look better than the finishes, but it is a venue like TPC Twin Cities that could allow Grillo to shine.

Austin Smotherman ($7,400) – Smotherman is the number one ball-striker in my model when I recalculated the metrics to mimic the course.

Troy Merritt ($7,400) – The hometown narrative is starting to catch some steam, which I could do without, but the upside metrics are percolating through the page.

Joohyung Kim ($7,300) – Kim is 28/1 to win the event. That has to count for something when every other golfer priced next to him is between 80-100/1.

Danny Lee ($7,200) – Lee is always a bad shot away from potentially withdrawing, but sub-five percent is low enough to bet on the upside.

Tyler Duncan ($7,100) – Duncan grades inside the top-10 of this field in weighted ball-striking and weighted par-four scoring.

Tom Hoge ($7,100) – The classic case of recent form versus long-term metrics. I don’t love the current ownership projection, but Hoge’s upside is probably higher than anyone else in this section if the pieces do come together.

Callum Tarren ($7,000) – Tarren is top-25 in this field for birdie or better and opportunities gained, and the recent putting surge puts him in a position where he only needs a few pieces to come together to land a top-end result. 

Nate Lashley ($7,000) – Lashley ranks first in my model for par-four scoring in this field.

Joseph Bramlett ($7,000) – There is little to no floor for Bramlett, but the potential is there for a golfer that will struggle to exceed two or three percent in popularity

Additional Thoughts: You can use my model to find any plays you might like. This section is massive.

$6,000 Range

Justin Lower $6,900, Satoshi Kodaira $6,700, Kevin Chappell $6,600, Jim Knous $6,500, Seung Yul Noh $6,300

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Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Rory McIlroy ($11,100)  – Rory McIlroy has averaged 8.26 shots with his ball-striking over his past five tournaments and enters the week as the second-ranked golfer in my model for weighted current form over the last 10 weeks. As you might expect, Xander Schauffele tops that list.

Other Considerations –  Scottie Scheffler ($11,000) – We have multiple routes we can go when trying to get contrarian, but I will pinpoint in on Scottie Scheffler as my preferred target when trying to get unique up top. We are seeing Jon Rahm grade as the top non-Rory golfer on the board at most offshore shops, but I will trust my numbers with both being extremely close. It is worth noting that Spieth is a massive dog to most competitors.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – If pricing had come out after the Scottish Open, I don’t think it is outlandish to say Schauffele could have been the second man on the salary scale.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,400) –  The perception of bad form in majors tends to hurt Patrick Cantlay in these spots when it comes to his price and ownership. Thankfully for us, those are beneficial things we can take advantage of from a DFS perspective, and there aren’t too many better values you will find on the board at his projected 10% going rate.

Dustin Johnson ($9,200) – The high-end metrics from Dustin Johnson are phenomenal, as we see him rank first in weighted tee-to-green, fourth in par-four scoring, second in total driving and fourth in weighted proximity

Other Targets: Cameron Smith ($9,500) is in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($8,600) – Offshore markets love Tommy Fleetwood, and he is one only four players in the $8,000 range to grade as a positive value for me compared to his price. My next mention would be the other top-end choice, but the reduction we get in ownership from Fleetwood to Finau probably makes him a better DFS target when directly comparing. For what it is worth, Fleetwood is a marginal favorite over Dustin Johnson in head-to-head matchups.

Tony Finau ($8,400) – Finau will likely be one of the two or three highest owned players, but the price is right, and the safety should be there after he has provided five top-27 finishes at the Open during his last five attempts.

Other Thoughts: Sungjae Im ($8,300) – Nothing but a GPP contrarian dart throw.

$7,000 Range

Adam Scott ($7,700) – Scott’s ability to putt from off the surface should generate a massive boost in potential. Offshore markets are not in love with him when looking directly at head-to-head battles, but the outright totals have been ticking in the sharp direction.

Webb Simpson ($7,600) – I maintain my belief that the results for Webb Simpson. The American ranks 10th in this field when it comes to three-putt avoidance on these slow, systematic tests, and we also get top-five outputs in windy conditions and my reweighed par-four scoring.

Tiger Woods ($7,500) – The days where Tiger Woods can win at a standard Par 72 probably are long behind us, but these quirky tests that enhance par-four scoring and reduce par-five performances can still be conducive for him to find success. 

Paul Casey ($7,500) – Enjoy the best minute splice of PGA DraftCast history.

Russell Henley ($7,200) – If Augusta is a comp course to St. Andrews, Henley should be right at home. The weighted proximity places him inside the top-10 of this field, and the driving accuracy should create extra rollout.

Thomas Pieters ($7,200) – Distance + short iron play was not a category that I merged together, but Pieters graded 12th in this field from those two factors.

Additional Thoughts: Marc Leishman ($7,700), Abraham Ancer ($7,600), Sergio Garcia ($7,400), Gary Woodland ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Keith Mitchell ($6,900), Kevin Kisner ($6,900), Stewart Cink ($6,800), Guido Migliozzi ($6,800), Mackenzie Hughes ($6,800), Erik Van Rooyen ($6,700), Garrick Higgo ($6,700), Wyndham Clark ($6,600), Phil Mickelson ($6,600), Zach Johnson ($6,500), Keita Nakajima ($6,200)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Jon Rahm ($11,000)  – Rahm leads the field when it comes to GIR percentage, total driving and strokes gained in the wind and is one of only two players in the 10k range to grade as a positive value against ownership (Scheffler is the other).

Other Considerations –  Scottie Scheffler ($11,200) – I don’t think you can go wrong with Scheffler, Rahm or Thomas, although Thomas does have the most volatility and highest ownership from the trio. For that reason, Rahm and Scheffler are my preferred targets.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,900) – Decisions will have to be made in GPP contests, but Xander Schauffele might be the safest player on the board.

Will Zalatoris ($9,300) –  Rumors are that the course is going to play more challenging than usual, which is perfect for a golfer like Will Zalatoris

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,000) – Matsuyama ranks top-five in ball-striking and is also the best leverage option I have of any golfer $9,000 or higher.

Other Targets: Sam Burns ($9,200), Cam Smith ($9,100) are both in play for GPPs.

$8,000 Range

Sungjae Im ($8,700) – The ownership is not matching Sungjae Im’s potential. I’ll take the leverage that is presenting itself.

Other Thoughts: I will have Joaquin Niemann ($8,600) and Corey Conners ($8,300) in the player pool, but I am out on most other targets in this territory when talking about GPP builds.

$7,000 Range

Justin Rose ($7,900) – I’ve lessened some on my appeal for Justin Rose as the week has gone on, but the upside is there, and the ownership looks great.

Brian Harman ($7,700) – Harman is one of the better values on the board and should provide safety for the price.

Marc Leishman ($7,600) – GPP-only. Super volatile. I wouldn’t play him for more than six or seven percent if mass-entering builds.

Chris Kirk ($7,400) – Kirk has gained with his driver in 15 consecutive starts

Gary Woodland ($7,300) – Woodland is quickly becoming one of my favorite targets on the board.

Jason Kokrak ($7,300) – Like Marc Leishman, consider this a volatile pick that does have top-10 equity. If choosing between the two, I prefer Kokrak.

Luke List ($7,200) – List gained over 13 shots ball-striking during his past start. The slower greens might help his usually poor putting stroke.

Additional Thoughts: Keith Mitchell ($7,800), Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,500), Aaron Rai ($7,400), Maverick McNealy ($7,400), Cameron Tringale ($7,200), Harris English ($7,100), Si Woo Kim ($7,100)

$6,000 Range

Matt Wallace ($6,700), Alex Smalley ($6,600), Wyndham Clark ($6,500), Garrick Higgo ($6,500), Guido Migliozzi ($6,300)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Here are the links to my shows this week. PGA DraftCast & Bettor Golf Podcast

I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,200)  – I thought Scott Holdridge said it eloquently tonight on the PGA DraftCast show. I am paraphrasing, but “everyone is worried about numbers and stats, but at some point, you have to worry more about win equity.” There is nobody in the world in better form than the American, and we know he can roll that form over from start to start after his utter domination of the tour in 2022.

Patrick Cantlay ($10,200)  – Patrick Cantlay is the top-ranked player on my model for upside, and he carries an average weight in the statistical category that places him as high as anyone I have seen this year. I didn’t have him lower than eighth in the seven categories I ran, and he was either first, second or third seven of those times. We know the course history has been impressive, with four consecutive top-15 finishes, and the form is starting to come around after producing back-to-back top-14 showings at the U.S. Open and Memorial.

Other Considerations –  Rory McIlroy ($11,000) – I have no issues riding the form. Xander Schauffele ($10,000) – Schauffele will be the top leverage play of the group, although everyone is rather close to one another.

$9,000 Range

Tommy Fleetwood ($9,200) – We are looking at one finish inside the top-15 for Tommy Fleetwood during his single attempt at TPC River Highlands, but I don’t see why we shouldn’t expect a similar outcome again. Fleetwood’s third-place ranking for safety happens to push him up further on my GPP list because of his sub-10 percent mark, and the Englishman grades inside the top 15 for both TPC tracks and Pete Dye layouts. 

Harold Varner III ($9,000) –  I’ve used this example a handful of times, but Stixpicks noticed a trend in Varner’s game that he produces better on shorter tests where he can club down than the driver-friendly layouts where you can bomb away. I don’t know why that is, but sub-7,000 yards is an ideal yardage total for that theory to get tested once again. 

Other Targets: Joaquin Niemann ($9,600) – More of a cash-game play for me. Sungjae Im ($9,700) – Feels like a quality bounce-back spot.

$8,000 Range

Webb Simpson ($8,500) – I will keep all three of these players to a quick rundown because you can hear me talk about them in an in-depth fashion on any of my shows, but Simpson ranks second in this field (behind only Patrick Cantlay) when combining strokes gained at short courses, TPC properties and Dye tracks.

Marc Leishman ($8,400) – Seven top-39 finishes out his last nine attempts for Marc Leishman at TPC River Highlands, including a win in 2012.

Jason Day ($8,100) – I am usually the ‘Boy Who Cried DAYYYYYYYYY’ every week, but my model does happen to like him in Connecticut – evident by his top-10 ranking from an overall sense. Unlike the usual fake hype, this one is real.

Other Thoughts: Aaron Wise -105 over Davis Riley is a play of mine on DraftKings. I also faded Denny McCarthy by taking Brendan Steele over him at -115.

$7,000 Range

Brendan Steele ($7,700) – Steele is going to be popular, but I am leaning towards him being good chalk for a test where he can use his driver as an advantage.

Si Woo Kim ($7,600) – Let’s keep an eye that his ownership stays under 10 percent, but the upside is there for a top-10 finish. Kim is one of the best players in this field when combining Pete Dye tracks and courses under 7,200 yards.

Cameron Davis ($7,500) – Eleventh in my model from an upside perspective, Cameron Davis epitomizes the boom-or-bust nature. If his ownership starts increasing, we might have to look elsewhere.

Sepp Straka ($7,100) – The only argument against this play is that I do believe you can get the same upside versus volatility combination from Charley Hoffman at $6,500.

Additional Thoughts: Here are the players that are currently showing as a value against price + ownership in the $7,000s – Christiaan Bezuidenhout ($7,900), Jhonattan Vegas ($7,500) – that would be GPP-only, Mackenzie Hughes ($7,400), Lanto Griffin ($7,100) and Stewart Cink ($7,000).

$6,000 Range

Zach Johnson ($6,800), Kramer Hickok ($6,700), Charley Hoffman ($6,500), Hank Lebioda ($6,500), Tyler Duncan ($6,400)

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.

Geoff Fienberg joined this week’s PGA DraftCast, and it was a rowdy show for Stixpicks and myself on the Bettor Golf Podcast. I’d highly recommend giving both a listen.

I am going to rapid-fire through all the picks this week. We will return back to a more standard article a week from now.

DraftKings Players ($10,000+)

Scottie Scheffler ($11,300)  – Scottie Scheffler will be your leverage play in the $10,000+ range with the best combination of upside and unique construction.

Justin Thomas ($10,900)  – It is hard to ignore Justin Thomas as the top player in my model. The ownership is solid for the two-time PGA Championship winner, and the upside goes without question.

Other Considerations –  Rory McIlroy ($10,500) – I like Rory’s “fit” for Brookline, but I do want to point out that we haven’t ever seen him win an event at less than 12-under par.

$9,000 Range

Xander Schauffele ($9,600) – Schauffele’s five-straight top-seven finishes at the U.S. Open will be challenging to ignore.

Dustin Johnson ($9,400) –  If you want to separate a build away from the chalk, Johnson accomplishes that task easily at two percent. There will be volatility, but the upside is always present at a U.S. Open.

Will Zalatoris ($9,300) – Fairways and made putts. That is the recipe for Zalatoris if he wants to win his first PGA Tour title.

Patrick Cantlay ($9,200) – Cantlay has a higher missed cut expectation in my model than anyone we have talked about other than Dustin Johnson, but he also has the highest ceiling of anyone not named McIlroy, Scheffler or Thomas.

Hideki Matsuyama ($9,100) – Matsuyama’s two wins in his last 10 completed tournaments is an impressive total for a golfer trending towards being sub-10 percent.

Other Targets: I will find myself lower on Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth than consensus.

$8,000 Range

Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,500) – Fitzpatrick is a cash-game staple that does have playability elsewhere.

Sam Burns ($8,300) – Probably the most win equity on the board sub-$9,000. Burns is a GPP darling because of his reasonable ownership total and upside.

Tony Finau ($8,200) – I selected Tony Finau first overall during the Draftcast, and he is the second-best value on the board for me at $8,200.

Other Thoughts: Niemann, Berger and Homa will be included in my core.

$7,000 Range

Corey Conners ($7,900) – The lack of U.S. Open success is alarming, but the upside is there as a sub-10 percent option in GPPs.

Aaron Wise ($7,800) – My favorite target on the board. You can tune into Bettor Golf to hear why Wise is going to be a staple of everything I do this week.

Tommy Fleetwood ($7,700) – The recent metrics turn the Englishman into a value in all markets.

Talor Gooch ($7,500) – If short game matters, let’s not overlook Gooch’s first-place ranking in my model for strokes gained around the green.

Sebastian Munoz ($7,400) – Munoz is trending in the right direction statistically and has the current form that you would hope to see on a cheaper option.

Harold Varner III ($7,300) – Don’t let the perceived lack of win equity fool you. Varner is a golfer with the potential to massively exceed his price tag.

Additional Thoughts: Mito and Sungjae are two of the top five mispriced players on the slate. Patrick Rodgers, Si Woo Kim, Luke List and Brian Harman will make the core.

$6,000 Range

I’d mostly avoid this section if I can, but Kurt Kitayama and Adri Arnaus would be the two golfers I will randomly squeeze into builds.

If you haven’t already, follow Win Daily Sports on YouTube and via Apple Podcasts. We’re already hitting big with our NFL content and you are going to want to be a part of that. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all lineup adjustments, late-breaking news and weather reports.