The US Open: Initial Picks

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We’re already in the midst of another major as a full field descends upon Brookline Massachusetts for the U.S. Open. This major has an additional, if not ominous twist, as many LIV Tour players will be teeing it up among their ‘former’ PGA Tour colleagues. This will be a very tough test with a necessity to be good in all facets, but for me, I’m putting an extra emphasis on OTT (with an emphasis on accuracy) and ARG. We will get to the full model breakdown from @TeeOffSports on the PGA Draftcast on Tuesday night at 8:00, which will also feature special guest Geoff Fienberg! Make sure you tune in for all the DFS and outright plays. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks.

Jon Rahm (10800) – Likely to be unpopular due to his perceived lack of ARG game and the fact that you can pay up or down for more attractive options. Feels like a good time for Rahm to pounce. As for ARG he’s historically been great in that department and it’s picked up over the last couple months for him. I’ll note that I don’t have an issue rostering Rory or Scottie up here. I don’t think either will be prohibitively popular.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He’s in great form, keeps it in the fairway and has been great ARG and on APP. He’s also not intimidated by US Open setups as indicated by his 7th place or better finishes over the last 5 US Opens. Xander is great in cash games but may be pivot material if the ownership gets too high.

Hideki Matsuyama (9100) – Revenge narrative in play after the odd DQ at The Memorial. Deki rates out well in almost all relevant categories and may see some lower ownership as he is Lowry and Zalatoris adjacent.

Shane Lowry (9000) – Certainly a great value but be cautious of his pedestrian US Open track record (granted, this is a different course but it’s still noteworthy). Lowry has been playing at an elite level all year and I don’t suspect that will change at The US Open, but if ownership is high I’ll pivot up to Deki or DJ or down to some of the great value in the 8k range.

Cameron Young (8800) – It’s really difficult to make a compelling argument against some of these young guns. Fact is, Young is great OTT, great ARG and good on APP. If he’s popular (and he likely will be) it’s a pretty easy pivot, but it’s worth noting him in case ownership is flat between the 9k and mid 8k range where there are a lot of popular options.

Billy Horschel (8600) – The 8k range is fruitful, but as usual, Billy probably will be on the outside looking in as far as popularity. His APP play isn’t pristine, but he’s been great ARG and he will keep in the fairway OTT. A nice pivot off some definite chalk in this area.

Daniel Berger (8400) – He was my favorite guy at The Memorial and he paid it off with a T5. He checks every box and has recently shown he can spike with the PUTT. He’s Top 20 ARG and Top 10 in fairways gained and APP. He also likely will have significantly less ownership than Matt Fitzpatrick (I think Fitz is fine for cash).

Mito Pereira (7800) – Another young gun that doesn’t seem to be phased by the moment. Over the last 36 rounds he’s 7th OTT, 10th APP, 31st ARG and 9th Fairways Gained. Nice recipe for outplaying his price tag. Another guy that will be popular so make sure you choose your chalk wisely and don’t be afraid to pivot in GPPs.

Sungjae Im (7600) – Another cash game lock who I may also pepper into some GPPs. He’s going to be very popular. He’s in good form and has the OTT, accuracy and ARG game to compete on Sunday.

Louis Oosthuizen (7600) – It will be interesting to see how much ownership Louis gets considering he hasn’t played much and he’s now LIV committed. If ownership is down I’m happy to pivot onto him (and perhaps off Sungjae in GPPs). He’ll keep in the fairway and the short game is elite.

Webb Simpson (7400) – Webb has been starting to hit the ball well again which is pretty good evidence he’s shaken off all his injuries and rust. His best finish this calendar year is the recent 20th at the PGA Championship and at 7400 I’d be just fine with that result.

Davis Riley (7300) – Another popular option better suited for cash games. It’s impossible to ignore what this guy has done over his last six tournaments (4th, 5th, 9th, 13th, 4th, 13th). The best part is he’s been doing it the ‘right way’ as he’s picking up plenty of strokes with the BS and the short game. I’d consider Sergio Garcia or Justin Rose in this range as a GPP pivot.

Si Woo Kim (7000) – His big issue is the PUTT but that’s not a big point of emphasis for me at Brookline. Si Woo will hit fairways and can navigate ARG. If he gets hot on APP he can be a factor at The US Open.

Brian Harman (7000) – I’m not a Harman guy, but at this price he’s worth considering. He’s excellent ARG and will keep in the fairway. I’ll take my chances with his lack of distance if I need to dip into this range.

Secret Weapon (Under 7k/less than 5% owned) – currently 54-22.

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