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PGA DFS Picks

Rocket Mortgage Classic: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour is in Detroit this week for The Rocket Mortgage Classic. This Par 72 7330 track will favor bombers, but it is certainly not a pre-requisite to be long. My focus will be on OTT and APP somewhat equally and I’ve honed in a bit on APP proximities between 75-150. Finally, I’m looking for golfers who have shown that they have the potential to get hot with the putter. We will have more on the course and all the players on the Win Daily PGA Livestream Tuesday night at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the Initial Picks for The Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Bryson DeChambeau (11400) – Truth is I’m not huge on Bryson this week, but I felt the need to put him in the article because his upside is massive. I don’t love his APP game from shorter proximities, but he checks out everywhere else. Not a ton of shares for me, but I will play him.

Webb Simpson (10400) – We haven’t seen him much this year and he’s not very long OTT and I’m hoping that keeps ownership down. Webb is only 9^th in my model, but I see him as fully rested and ready to attack the rest of 2021. His T2G game is elite and he’s also a surprising 5^th SG Par 5 last 24 rounds. He finished 8^th here last year. I’ll note I also like Hideki and Reed in this elite range.

Jason Kokrak (9500) – Number 1 in my model. He’s great in the BS department and can get scorching hot with the putter. Only weakness is ARG, but I don’t think that will be a big issue for him this week. All systems go on Kokrak.

Gary Woodland (8600) – In spite of last week’s MC, it feels like Woodland’s game is back on the rise. He rates out very high in my model and I’m happy to be early on him. A GPP play only.

Garrick Higgo (8300) – He’s gained BS three tournaments in a row and it’s mainly the ARG game that has led to the consecutive MCs. He’s gained PUTT in 3 of the 4 tournaments he’s played on the PGA Tour. Plenty of upside here for Higgo at The Rocket Mortgage.

Emiliano Grillo (8200) – Another guy who had a somewhat surprising MC last week at the Travelers, but I like the fact that he is always solid with the BS and the fact that he can get hot with the putter (it doesn’t happen often, but it’s starting to happen more and more).

Cameron Tringale (8100) – Was a DFS darling a few short months ago, but the game has fallen off a bit. He also missed the cut last week at the Travelers, but overall, I like what I’m seeing from his game, particularly with the putter and the shorter APP proximities.

Brendon Todd (7900) – Doesn’t feel like the best course fit, but I like what I’m seeing from him lately. He gained almost 6 strokes T2G last week but finished a pedestrian 30^th due to a poor putter. The BS is turning around and historically his putter can get hot.

Hank Lebioda (7200) – Hammerin’ Hank came through for us last week with a Win Daily Secret Weapon Special (100+ DK points from a guy who was 1.5% owned is gigantic). His final score was a little misleading as he gained almost 6 strokes PUTT and wasn’t great BS. I expect the BS to bounce back and if the putter stays hot, watch out.

Beau Hossler (7000) – Either the last couple of tournaments were a mirage or Beau has found something with two Top 20 finishes in a row. In a Rocket Mortgage tournament that doesn’t have much talent below 7500 I’m willing to take a chance that Hossler has found something.

Satoshi Kodaira (6800) – Had a couple bad days at the Travelers after a red-hot start on Thursday, but still managed to place 36^th. Prior to last week he had gained BS in four straight tournaments. He has also gained PUTT in a big way in four straight. This is great upside for a guy priced this low.

Adam Schenk (6500) – His metrics aren’t great, but he has managed to make cuts lately (he’s made 6 of his last 8 cuts but hasn’t had a Top 20 since the Valspar. Add to that he’s finished 30^th and 42^nd on this track and there’s some arguable value at this price.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 38-10. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Podcasts and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all The Rocket Mortgage late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: 2021 Travelers Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re giving you some top PGA DFS picks and looking for green screens at the Travelers Championship at TPC River Highlands!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full, deep field of 156 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champion: Dustin Johnson (19 over Kevin Streelman’s -18)
The course: TPC River Highlands (Cromwell, CT)
- 6,841 yards, Par 70 – Old 1928 design reworked by Pete Dye in 1982
- Varied types of holes on a short course that can produce low scoring (site of Jim Furyk’s 58 in 2016)
- Small Bentgrass/Poa Greens
- Just two par 5s, but one is short and yields lots of birdies and eagles; and two driveable par 4s around 300 yards
- Experience with Pete Dye layouts can help, and there’s plenty of course history at TPC River Highlands
- Distance not an issue here as scoring clubs more important
Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, Par 4s: 400-450, Opportunities Gained, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass and Poa), SG: Around the Green, Birdie or Better %

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – DJ’s game doesn’t look too bad heading into the Travelers, where he’s the defending champ and one of the betting favorites at 12-1. Last year’s title was helped tremendously by a second round 64 and a scorching-hot 61 on Saturday, but it took him a bit to warm up and he closed the deal with a solid 67 on Sunday. That’s just how he could win again this year – with his talent shining through in a couple of low rounds and solid ball-striking carrying him through when his mojo ain’t working.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $10,400) – His projected ownership will probably be the highest in this tier for the consistency he’s shown in PGA DFS events, excluding the poor stretch of MCs from the Players to the Wells Fargo during the spring. Believe it or not, Cantlay is actually the current FedExCup points leader with three top 15s at the Travelers since 2018. I won’t have as many shares as I will of DJ, but I feel like some exposure is warranted.

Paul Casey (DK $9,900) – Casey is my favorite play under $10K and has a great course history at TPC River Highlands, where he’s 6-for-6 with four top five finishes. He also finished among the top 10 in his last three starts (EURO and PGA combined) and is coming off a very respectable T7 at the U.S. Open. Sia is on board and so is Stix, so I’m buying some Casey this week and hoping for another Top 10 finish.

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,600) – Scheffler missed the cut in his Travelers debut last year, but he was amid a bad stretch of golf during the beginning of the spectator-free COVID tournaments. An opening round 70 sealed his fate, but he’s playing solid golf right now (T7 at the U.S. Open) and checks all the boxes this week.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka (GPP), Patrick Reed

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Kevin Streelman (DK $9,400) – He’s a solid play in all formats, and he’s probably worth using in single-entry builds for his galling consistency. Nick talked a little bit in The Breakdown about how he’s a near-lock for the Top 40 every week and we just saw him play some marvelous golf at the U.S. Open. “Streels” is one of those guys who just seems to show up every week.

Tony Finau (DK $9,200) – The jury is still out on when we’ll see Finau get his next win, but the price seems fair this week for a guy who just needs the putter to show up to realize his Top 10 upside. He’s missed his last two cuts here but had a T25 and T17 in 2016 and 2017. I’d steer clear in cash games, but he’s worth of consideration for GPPs.

Bubba Watson (DK $8,900) – He’s very popular this week and seems to be everywhere in the “experts” picks on plenty of sites, but he’s not nearly as safe a play as that would dictate. It’s been a while since I’ve seen him play his true “A” game, and the birdie runs are coming less frequently than a few years ago, when he won this tournament in 2018. I’ll have minimal exposure, and he’s not in my player pool for single-entry or cash games.

Brian Harman (DK $8,800) – Harman typically plays about a half-stroke better on Dye courses, and he’s an accurate driver who just closed out a solid week with a one-over 72 on Sunday at the U.S. Open, finishing T19. He’s got a couple of Top 10 finishes at the Travelers in his last three tries (MC in the tumultuous 2020) and has now placed among the top 20 in seven of eight starts going back to his T3 at the Players.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,500) –Another “Dye desirable,” Kim has made three of his last four cuts at the Travelers with a T11 in 2020 and solid finishes in 2016 and 2018. His form isn’t bad either, with a T9 at the Memorial and T40 last week at a grueling U.S. Open on a course that didn’t; necessarily fit his strengths. He’s a fine GPP play this week.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,900) – Bradley likes Pete Dye courses and this is the first of two “home games” for the underpriced golfer, who has had a really strong 2021. He finished T2 in 2019 and makes sense for all kinds of builds this week.

Francesco Molinari, (DK $7,700) – Molinari is rounding into form and while he doesn’t play a lot of events, he always has a shot at winning because he can get ridiculously hot with the putter. I think the T13 finish at the U.S. Open should give him the confidence necessary to capitalize on his opportunities this week and make a splash on the weekend.

Doc Redman (DK $7,600) – After a stretch of spotty play earlier this season, Redman has turned in some solid performances in recent weeks, posting a T9 at the AT&T Byron Nelson and a T2 at the Palmetto Championship at Congaree. He also debuted here last season with a T11 and he’s usually a decent leverage play that’s a little off-the-radar.

Also consider: Abraham Ancer (GPP), Joaquin Niemann, Cameron Smith (GPP), Harris English, Sam Burns (GPP), Max Homa (GPP), Jason Day (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Lanto Griffin (DK $7,400) – Griffin’s ball-striking was good at the U.S. Open and while he didn’t miss the cut, I was hoping for a better finish than T35. There’s a bunch of high-upside/high-risk golfers in this price range, and Lanto fits the bill for GPPs and as a 100-1 longshot to win.

Rickie Fowler (DK $7,300) – I’m a huge Fowler fan and the disappointment of missing the U.S. Open this year has to be weighing on the veteran golfer. Rickie’s game has had its ups and downs but has shown improvement over his last two events. There’s not much recent history at the Travelers to go form, but he had a T13 in 2014, closing with a 64 on Sunday. A return to New England and a course that fits his game could be just what he needs as he and Allison Stokke await the birth of their first child.

Mackenzie Hughes (DK $7,100) – He might get chalky after three days of brilliance at the U.S. Open (but not a fourth), because the price is very nice. The Canadian is 4-for-4 at the Travelers with an impressive scoring average (68.19) and a T3 last year. He’s in play for all formats.

Carlos Ortiz (DK $7,100) – If you need a pivot from Hughes with just as much upside but a lot more risk, look no further than Ortiz. He’s missed the cut here in his last two Travelers appearances but finished T17 in 2016 and has the chops to post some low scores here.

Chez Reavie (DK $7,000) – The $7K range is loaded with players who we’d like to play when they’re in good form, and Reavie makes for a wonderful GPP play this week as he’s coming off a T14 at the Palmetto and T40 at the U.S. Open. Reavie doesn’t typically play well on Dye courses, but we an make an exception this week because it’s a good spot.

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,000) – Stanley isn’t a very good putter, but his iron play is consistently strong and he’s once again underpriced for what he offers in PGA DFS. His course history is good and he’s a real bargain this week given his Top 20 upside.

Adam Long (DK $6,800) – Long has finished T20-T26 in his last two tournaments and is a solid ball-striker who’s accurate off the tee – an important factor in creating opportunities here. If he can keep form having the one blowup round that usually mars his chances, he’ll be in good shape for the weekend.

More value golfers to consider: Kevin Na (GPP), Aaron Wise, Brendan Steele (GPP), Stewart Cink, Patton Kizzire (GPP), Will Gordon (GPP), Ryan Moore (GPP), Scott Stallings (GPP), Henrik Norlander (GPP), Hank Lebioda (GPP), Wyndham Clark (GPP), Austin Eckroat (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brian Stuard (DK $6,400) – A lot of folks will look to Satoshi Kodaira and the very consistent Vincent Whaley, but I like Stuard’s chances of rebounding after missed cuts at the Palmetto and U.S. Open. He has an extensive course history with spotty results, but something clicked last year en route to a T20, a finish I think he could duplicate here in 2021.

Tyler Duncan (DK $6,300) – He’s a total longshot (and hasn’t posted a Top 10 since he won the RSM in 2019), but he’s accurate off the tee and has made three straight cuts at this event. If you need a final piece and only have $6,300 to spend, he’s worth throwing in one or two out of 20 GPPs.

Additional GPP punts: Satoshi Kodaira, Tom Lewis, Vincent Whaley

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Travelers: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour heads back to the east coast for The Travelers Championship in Cromwell, Connecticut. This week we are TPC River Highlands which is a shorter Pete Dye track Par 70, measuring just over 6800 yards. I’m looking for golfers who are great BS (‘ball striking’ – a metric that combines OTT and APP). You’ll also want to find guys who have the ability to get hot with the putter. More on course dynamics and proximities on tomorrow’s Win Daily PGA Livestream. Let’s get into my Initial Picks at The Travelers.

Dustin Johnson (11400) – Ball striking was good last week, but the putting was pretty pedestrian, with the exception of one round where he gained almost 5 strokes. Either way, I feel like the game is starting to come around and if the upward trajectory continues, he could really do some damage here.

Patrick Cantlay (10400) – Cantlay had a horrible time with the putter earlier this year, losing strokes PUTT in six tournaments in a row. Since that time he’s strung together two very positive putting performances since then (The Memorial and The U.S. Open). APP game was a little off last week at the U.S. Open, but at the Memorial he gained almost 10 strokes ball striking.

Paul Casey (9900) – There’s a lot to like about the 9k range, but Casey feels like one of the safer plays with upside. He has a great track record at The Travelers and he’s coming in with great form. The putter hasn’t been great as of the last few tournaments so he’ll need to be at least average there.

Scottie Scheffler (9600) – He can get red hot with the putter and red hot with the ball striking and that makes him a perfect candidate for a birdie fest at The Travelers. Just like anyone else, he can get cold, but the instances where Scottie has been cold are far fewer than his hot streaks as of late. I’ll note that I think Wolff is an interesting GPP play if ownership is low. I’ll note that Ancer and Streelman are also good cash options in the 9k range.

Harris English (8200) – His history here is flat out bad, but he really is a different golfer now versus when he last played at The Travelers in 2019. English has really bounced back from a tough stretch earlier this year. That tough stretch was due, in part, to a back injury that appears to have resolved. He’s finished Top 15 in 3 of his last 5 tournaments and he’s coming off a 3^rd place finish at the U.S. Open. Great value here.

Keegan Bradley (7900) – Keegan hasn’t lost strokes ball striking since the PGA Championship…in 2020!! That’s 20 tournaments in a row (it’s likely 22 in a row as there were two tournaments in that stretch where he finished 4^th and 32^nd but the rounds weren’t measured). Historically he’s been a bad putter but has actually gained with the putter in 6 of his last 8 tournaments. I should note that he’s also from this area. Lock him in for cash games and feel free to give him the free square treatment in GPP.

Aaron Wise (7400) – He’s gained ball striking in 11 out of the last 13 tournaments. His big issue during that entire stretch was the putter (lost strokes putting in 9 out of 10 tournaments including losing over 10 strokes putting at the Waste Management). However, Wise has gained strokes putting in his last two tournaments and I’m going to assume he’s found something.

Emiliano Grillo (7300) – He’s been losing strokes OTT but he does tend to keep the ball in the fairway. I need to admit the OTT game scares me a bit, but I think he’s a good enough ball striker overall to overcome it. His putter has turned a corner and I like the value he presents here at The Travelers.

Kyle Stanley (7000) – This is a leap of faith as Kyle Stanley simply can’t putt. However the OTT and APP game are definitely in good form. Somehow, he’s made the cut in 5 straight tournaments in spite of losing significant strokes putting in 4 of those 5. If he finds a hot putter he’s gonna race up the leaderboard but don’t go heavy on Stanley and he is strictly a GPP play.

Hank Lebioda (6700) – Play has been a little erratic OTT and APP over the last few tournaments but he’s managed to gain BS in each of the last three tournaments. Add to that his putter can get hot at times (gained significant strokes putting in 3 of the last 4). He’s made four cuts in a row which immediately followed 4 missed cuts in a row, which tells me that Hammerin’ Hank has found something and is trending upward.

Satoshi Kodaira (6500) – His main issue earlier this year was a bad putter but he’s managed to gain 4 or more strokes putting in his last three tournaments (that’s a significant amount). He’s gained ball striking in 5 tournaments in a row. The ARG game is spotty but I don’t think that will be a big factor here. A good option if you’re dipping down into this range.

Vincent Whaley (6400) – Somehow managed to lose over 5 strokes on APP at the Palmetto, but the good news is that kept his price down in the abyss this week. Don’t forget this guy made 9 cuts in a row prior to the Palmetto so you could definitely do worse.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 37-10. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night for all the late tips, lineup changes and weather reports.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The U.S. Open at Torrey Pines

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

This week we have a stacked field and find you some winning PGA DFS teams at the highly demanding and difficult Torrey Pines South Course in the U.S. Open!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Star-studded major championship field of 156 golfers that includes amateur and local and international pro qualifiers
36-hole Cut: Top 60 and ties play the weekend (just 38.46% of the field)
The course: Torrey Pines South Course (La Jolla, CA)
- Over 7,700 yards, Par 71 – William Bell, Sr. (1957) with Rees Jones redesign (2001, 2019)
- Long and brutal seaside/cliffside course
- Scene of Tiger Woods’s epic 2008 U.S. Open victory over Rocco Mediate
- Tees and fairways are Kikuyu overseeded with Rye; unpredictable (and often bumpy) Poa annua greens
- Classic U.S. open layout with long, thick rough that will require punch-outs and cause a few lost balls (and PGA DFS frustration)
- Putting (and Three-Putt Avoidance) will be key, as 4-8 foots putts drop just below the 2/3 make rate (normally 68-70%) on these complex, tiered greens
- Long Par 4s require good long iron play from >200 yards
Weather should be pleasant this week, but greens could bake and make putting and approaches very difficult
Focus Stat Categories: SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Putting (Bentgrass/Poa), SG: Around the Green, SG: Tee to Green, Bogey Avoidance, Three-Putt Avoidance (3PA, for short), Par 4s: 450-500, Driving Distance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,200) – Rahm’s only flaws seem to be mental, but he seemed mature, reflective and generally loose and comfortable during his interview on Tuesday, even when peppered with a lot of questions about the COVID snafu and how that all transpired. Rahmbo is No. 12 on tour in SG: APP this season, and he’s second and third (respectively) in SG: T2G and SG: OTT. He was playing great golf at the Memorial before he had to withdraw, and the 2017 Farmers champion LOVES Torrey Pines (T7-2-T5-T29-WIN in his last five years here). The Spaniard also finished second at the 2019 U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, so he’s definitely in play – I just worry a bit about his quick backswing and equally quick temper on a course that will play tougher than it usually does.

Dustin Johnson (DK $10,700) – As always, my main concern is putting with DJ, who doesn’t make a whole lot of 5-10 footers, a stat that is crucial at the U.S. Open – and a reason I’m not looking too hard at Hideki Matsuyama this week (despite the current
Masters champ’s amazing long iron play and decent record at Torrey Pines). Of course, because DJ’s PGA DFS ownership should be relatively low this week, his talent and length make him a fine contrarian play for GPPs. If I come in slightly ahead of field ownership, I’ll be happy, because there’s no need to go all-in with this guy, even if he is the OWGR No. 1.

Rory McIlroy (DK $9,900) – Like DJ, I’m interested in Rory because of his projected ownership (even if it creeps up a bit as we approach Thursday morning), and he’s under $10K this week in a tournament he has every intention of winning. I’ll talk more about the likely chalky Xander Schauffele later, but starting off a lineup with McIlroy and X-Man still leaves you with $7,700 per golfer (Phil Mickelson’s price this week), a strategy I’ll be using in several GPP lineups. Rory still kills it off the tee and knows how to grind out even par and one-under rounds in tough conditions, and the baby discount could help us by allowing a roster construction that avoids playing a bomb elsewhere in that dicey low-mid range.

Collin Morikawa (DK $9,500) – Morikawa’s elite ball-striking (he basically gains anywhere from five to ten strokes per round on approach) will probably keep him in any golf tournament at this point, but the difficulty of these Poa annua greens may prevent him from winning another major until the next Masters or PGA Championship. Still, he’s a fine PGA DFS cash game anchor because even on the most difficult surfaces, his spectacular iron play keeps him on the leaderboard.

Also consider: Bryson DeChambeau (GPP), Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,300) – Schauffele checks all the boxes this week and makes a lot of 5-10 footers (No. 10 on tour). Currently the No. 6 player in the world, he also finished second here at the Farmers in January during a 2019-2021 run that included nine straight Top 17s and a remarkable 17 straight Top 25s. His missed cuts at the Players and PGA Championship could keep a few folks away, but I like him in all formats this week (cash or tourney) and he’ll be a staple of my single-entry and large-field GPPs.

Patrick Reed (DK $9.000) – Reed is No. 1 on tour in 3PA, which is going to be one of those stats that should help weed out similarly priced players in single-entry GPPs. It sounds as if preventing meltdowns on these putting surfaces could be a huge help in making the cut and getting in contention, and while Reed’s extremely spotty off the tee, his putter will keep him in most tournaments. His projected PGA DFS ownership is still pretty high, but again – we can find some leverage elsewhere if we need to.

Tony Finau (DK $8,900) – I may prefer spending the extra few hundred on Schauffele or Cantlay in cash games, but Finau has played sparkling golf at Torrey Pines in the past five years (T2-T6-T13-T6-T4) – albeit under less difficult conditions. And while he’s not electric with the flatstick, he ranks in the top 50 on tour this week in 3PA. Winning a U.S. Open for your second PGA Tour victory is a bit of a stretch, but we know he can finish in the Top 15, which he’s done in all three U.S. opens when he’s made the cut, including a T8 in 2020.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,600) –A great ball striker who can putt a bit and likes both Poa annua and Torrey Pines, his length will help navigate some of the distance on the long par 4s and he’s already shown an ability to contend on the big stages of major championships. I don’t think his ownership will be oppressively high – at least to the point where he’s a bad play in large-field GPPs, and even if he lands in the 15-20% range, I’m buying.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,100) – I’ll be including Oosty in my PGA DFS player pool for just about every major unless the back injuries that have plagued him in the past flare up – even if it’s hard to tell when that may happen. The swing is still very pure, and he’s an elite putter from 5-10 feet (ranking first on the PGA Tour this season). Sweet Louie is just very hard to get away from when I’m perusing this price range.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,000) – I love how Smith’s game developed in 2021, and while his overall SG numbers are decent, the thing that separates him from a lot of other golfers in this range is his elite putting. He’s solid at getting up and down and he doesn’t three-putt that much because he one-putts 44.15% of the time! Sia talked a bit about him in the Breakdown and I’ll be overweight on the field. While his ball-striking remains the biggest concern, I’m willing to take a stab and play the Aussie in single-entry for some leverage.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,600) – Aside from Phil and his astounding win at Kiawah Island, Kokrak has probably had the best 2020-21 of anybody in this range, with his first two career wins coming at the CJ CUP in October 2020 and another victory at the Charles Schwab at the end of May. Kokrak has massive upside for a guy who’s easy to roster in all kinds of builds, and he’s made the cut in his last three U.S. Opens, including a T17 at Winged Foot in 2020.

Also consider: Viktor Hovland, Patrick Cantlay, Webb Simpson, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Tyrrell Hatton (Cash), Matt Fitzpatrick (GPP), Phil Mickelson (GPP), Shane Lowry

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Marc Leishman (DK $7,400) – Leishman has burned me more times than I can count, but I refuse to give in to the “never again” thinking that keeps DFS pros from winning GPPs. I might not make him a staple of my single-entry builds, but he’s certainly in play in most formats at this price point and has a truly impressive course history at Torrey Pines (T18-WIN-T43-T8-T14 in his last five Farmers Insurance appearances). Leishman is adept at hitting some different shot shapes – a helpful trait this week – and he’s a solid enough putter to post a Top 5 or 10 finish, an attainable goal in this price range.

Harris English (DK $7,300) – His form has come around a bit since a few MCs earlier in 2021, and he’s made the cut at all five U.S. Opens he’s participated in, including a T4 in 2020 at Winged Foot. The downside is that he’s missed three straight cuts at the Farmers after some moderate success in 2017 and 2018 (T8 and T14). He may be flying under the radar a bit, but we can double-check ownership projections before lock and make some adjustments to our exposure in GPPs.

Stewart Cink (DK $7,200) – We’ve talked before about Cink’s resurgence and solid numbers off the tee, but it’s important to point out how much experience he has at this venue. This will be his first U.S. Open appearance since 2017, when he finished T46 at Erin Hills, but there’s still plenty of game left in his old bones. I’ll be using Cink at about a 10-15% rate in my 20-max and large-field GPPs.

Ryan Palmer (DK $7,100) – A course horse with a pair of second-place finishes in the Farmers over the past four years, Palmer has missed his last two U.S. Open cuts but stands to benefit from his familiarity with this popular tour venue. I’m most concerned with how he handles the longer rough this week, but he checks most of the boxes in our focus stat categories (No. 34 on tour in SG:OTT) and seems underpriced given his upside.

Ian Poulter (DK $7,000) – Poulter is coming off a T30 at the PGA Championship, a T3 at the Charles Schwab, and most recently a T25 at Congaree in the Palmetto Championship, and he’s well known for solid numbers on Poa annua greens and from 5-10 feet. The length of Torrey Pines could be an issue this week, but for this bargain price, I consider him worthy of a few GPP entries.

Brendan Todd (DK $6,900) – Another putting specialist who can elevate his game to the next level when he’s striking it well, Todd’s biggest challenge will be overcoming the 20-30 yards of distance he’ll be losing to the longer hitters in the field and hitting approaches from 175-200+. He’s GPP only because of his struggles off the tee and on those longer approach shots, but he’s still in my player pool as of now for his short game prowess.

Lanto Griffin (DK $6,800) – I’m a little surprised Griffin isn’t more than $7K this week based on his metrics and course history, which include a T7 at the Farmers this year and a T12 in 2018. With four MCs over his last five tournaments, the form is pretty ugly, but the venue and his skill set portend a better finish more along the lines of the steady stretch of Top 35 he posted in February and March.

Justin Suh (DK $6,600) – A USC standout who’s often forgotten among all-star crop of 2019 rookies, Suh has yet to make his mark on the PGA Tour but has played Torrey Pines 20+ times in his life. It won’t be playing as easily as it probably did during his junior and collegiate days, but Suh qualified last week to tee it up again here – and he could make for a decent final piece in a few GPP lineups.

More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Brian Harman (Cash), Charley Hoffman, Max Homa (GPP), Christian Bezuidenhout (GPP), Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Charl Schwartzel (Cash), Kevin Kisner, Mackenzie Hughes (GPP), Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Adam Hadwin, Wyndham Clark

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – He made the cut at the U.S. Opens in 2016 and 2018, and he’s had some special individual rounds this season. He also has two top 10 finishes at Torrey Pines in the past five years and while he’s not known as a guy who can put together four good rounds, if he shines in the first two days he could finish among the Top 25 and make value.

Chan Kim (DK $6,100) – Kim is worth slotting into a few GPP entries based on his near-minimum salary, where he’s basically the only one I’ll be using. Nick “Stix” Bretwisch turned me onto the South Korean’s game, and while he’s yet to make the cut in his previous three U.S Open appearances, he’s got the lowest betting odds in this range and he does have a T11 at the R&A’s Open Championship in 2017.

Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele, Jimmy Walker, Sam Ryder, J.J. Spaun

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The U.S. Open: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

We have another major on our hands as this week the PGA Tour heads to Torrey Pines for The U.S. Open. This is a long 7600 yard Par 71 which will test all facets of a golfer’s game. On a track like this being long with the driver certainly helps, but APP, ARG and PUTT are also quite important. Greens will be hard to hit so do not underestimate the golfer who can keep it in the fairway or the golfer who can get up and down from a tough spot ARG. More on course dynamics and metrics on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST.

Jon Rahm (11200) – I don’t love anyone in this elite range, but Rahm feels like the most consistent option. Even if you leave out Rahm’s incredible three round performance at the Memorial, the stats show he’s still been cruising on most SG metrics. Add to that the putter seems to be working its magic.

Collin Morikawa (9500) – Hasn’t done much in the two U.S. Open’s he’s been a part of, but I’m not too concerned with that. He’s the best T2G player in this field and I think that makes up for his lack of length off the tee. Short game is always a risk with Collin so keep that in mind before going all-in.

Viktor Hovland (9200) – Been going back and forth on Hovland this week but the value at this price is undeniable. Hovland doesn’t really have a weakness in any of the metrics I’m looking at other than not being particularly long. I’m willing to take my chances from the fairway at the U.S. Open.

Patrick Cantlay (9100) – I’m always looking for upward trajectory and Cantlay appears to have found his game after a pretty bad stretch. Not many weaknesses in his game other than some recent difficulties at the 200+ proximity so I’m willing to take the value. Before I leave the 9k range, I do want to point out that Rory McIlroy almost made my list. His price and upside considerations warrant some shares in your lineups.

Scottie Scheffler (8500) – Comes with a bit of volatility, and therefore, prefer him in GPP over cash, but his upside is undeniable. He’s been excellent OTT and good on APP. The putter can be a problem at times, but he gains just as much as he tanks in that department.

Louis Oosthuizen (8100) – This guy dials in at majors and dials in at US Opens. His track record in both is stellar and his recent form has also been excellent. Add to that an excellent short game and great with his irons. A great value in spite of being relatively short OTT.

Paul Casey (7900) – Always considered a value play and for good reason. Casey grades out really well in the SG metrics and has great U.S. Open form and great recent form. He will be popular, but I’m likely to play him in both Cash and GPP.

Abraham Ancer (7900) – Another great ball striker who has been contending over the last couple of months. His ARG game and 200+ proximity game have been hurting him lately, but I’m willing to take my chances as everything else is elite. If choosing between Ancer and Casey (a discussion had in Discord yesterday) my preference is Casey.

Jason Kokrak (7600) – One of my favorite values on the board. He’s top 10 OTT and Top 20 on APP. His short game can sometimes give him issues, but at this price I’m happy to take the upside. I should note that Casey, Ancer and Kokrak will all be popular plays this week and if you’re looking for lower owned pivots, Sam Burns and Gary Woodland are volatile, but present the upside I’m looking for in a contrarian play.

Charley Hoffman (7200) – Due to this elite field, Hoffman has been moved to a price that creates a lot of value. The last 24 rounds he’s been excellent OTT and APP and it’s the ARG game that has really hurt him. That certainly may hurt him again this week, but I think he’s worth a few shares to round out your lineups.

Kevin Streelman (7100) – A short hitter who has been extremely consistent as of late. I don’t love the U.S. Open course fit for Streelman and the 200+ proximities may present some issues, but I do think shorter hitters can succeed at Torrey Pines, particularly this time of year where there will be much more run out on the fairways compared to early in the year.

Cameron Young (6800) – A real leap of faith if you want to roster Young, but I’d say that about literally anyone in the 6k range this week. Young was excellent on the Korn Ferry Tour last month with back to back 1^st place finishes. He’s come back to reality so far in June but clearly the upside is there.

Richard Bland (6600) – You won’t find much on the PGA Tour but the recent results on the European Tour are impressive enough to take a shot. He’s finished 3^rd, 1^st and 27^th over his last three. You’re looking for cut makers at this price range and the recent form is showing he’s capable of just that.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-10. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your U.S. Open lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Palmetto Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a monster payday at the Palmetto Championship and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full but weak field (because of U.S. Open next week at Torrey Pines) of 156 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
First-time (and one-time) PGA Tour stop – replacing Canadian Open this year due to COVID restrictions
The course: Congaree Golf Club (Ridgeland, SC)
- > 7,600 yards, Par 71 – Tom Fazio design (2018)
- New course in lower SC near Georgia border
- Bermuda Greens with runoff areas and tight chipping lies, wider fairways that could help longer hitters a bit
- Flat course with natural hazards and sandy areas, not many trees or heavy rough
- Long but playable, so low scores are possible
- Layout resembles Ross’s Pinehurst No. 2 but some Fazio course comps can be found (Seaside Course at Sea Island, Conway Farms)
Focus Stat Categories (with no data to draw from, standard areas of ball-striking focus make sense): SG: Approach, SG: OTT, SG: Tee to Green, SG: Putting (Bermuda), SG: Around the Green, Par 4s: 450-500,

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Dustin Johnson (DK $11,400) – While DJ has not played his best golf lately, he’s a South Carolina guy on a course down near the Cackalacka/Georgia border, he’s playing a new course with coastal/links characteristics that he seems to prefer, and he’s the most talented golfer in the field (with Brooks Koepka a close second). His SG:APP and SG:OTT numbers are still in the Top 30 on the tour and he’s No. 13 in SG: T2G. If DJ can keep the putter going on what should be a fast course, there’s no reason he can’t lap the field and run away with this tournament.

Brooks Koepka (DK $11,100) – Koepka seems to be recovered from most of his knee woes and is having a great time playfully feuding with Bryson DeChambeau, but I still can’t trust him at this price in cash games. He’s totally fine for GPPs, but without too many quality value options below the $7K mark (don’t worry – we’ve got a couple in there for you), he might not make as many rosters as you’d anticipate with such a dramatic difference in ability between the top two and the rest of the field. I’d steer clear of overexposure with him, but he’ll be mixed into a few of my GPP lineups for sure.

Matt Fitzpatrick (DK $10,400) – It’s going to be tough to find anybody we feel safe rostering in the $9K to $10K range, but Fitzpatrick makes for a fine GPP play on a course where he should feel at home despite the lack of history. He likes these putting surfaces and these speeds, and he’s one of several English golfers who should be in contention this week. His SG: OTT and putting numbers are excellent, and like Joel and Sia, I feel like there’s progression coming in his SG: APP metrics.

Tommy Fleetwood (DK $9,500) – Fleetwood is a risky play this week, and he’s not a guy I’d normally consider given his current mediocre form. His best 2021 result so far is a T5 at the WGC Match Play event, with his best stroke play finish a T10 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational. With no PGA tour victories to his credit in his young career, he shouldn’t be too popular. That said, he’s going to win on the PGA Tour eventually (just like Fitzpatrick will), and a weak field event on a links-style course like this could be the breakthrough.

Also consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Harris English (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Ian Poulter (DK $9,200) – Sharps are loving Poulter’s recent form and while he’s proven to be maddeningly inconsistent from week-to-week in the past, there’s not a lot of competition in this range. The fourth English golfer I’ve mentioned (and that doesn’t even count the guy actually named English), he’s the best in that group with the putter (7th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting) and riding a hot streak heading into an unknown venue – a good sign when we don’t have a lot of data to work from.

Patton Kizzire (DK $9,100) – I don’t mind paying a premium for Kizzire on a course where he should play really well. I love playing the big galoot on courses with wider fairways where he doesn’t have as much trouble keeping it in the short stuff, and he’s made significant improvements in his approach game to match his elite putting metrics. I’ll be overweight on Kizzire in all formats and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.

Lucas Glover (DK $8,600) – He’ll likely be chalky, as the former Clemson Tiger is actually one of Congaree’s “Professional Ambassadors” – and someone with intimate knowledge of the course and its pitfalls. This course is also seemingly tailor-made to fit his strengths. The price is okay and for that reason, I’ll likely be ahead of the field in GPPs and he’ll be a core play on my single-entry builds.

Harold Varner (DK $8,500) – Once again, I’m with Sia in hating when Varner gets chalky, because that’s precisely when he seems to disappoint. Still, he’s from SC and shouldn’t have too many problems scoring well at Congaree. His T2 at the RBC Heritage points to an ability to notch a top 5 when his game comes together, and the price seems fair considering his upside in a field of this lesser quality.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $8,400) –He’s not the best ball-striker (or even a good one), but Sneds is a putting demon and the pressure could be off a bit with his driver since it’ll be easier for him to hit fairways. The tour veteran has made every cut since the Players Championship (with three Top 20s), and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him threatening the lead this weekend. He’s always a bit risky, but that risk is mitigated a bit at Congaree.

Martin Laird (DK $7,800) – Laird isn’t a super exciting play, but he grades out well for this golf course (at least for what we think we know about this golf course) and he’s made seven of his last eight cuts. The wily Scot was T23 at the PGA Championship, and has a solid all-around game T2G, but does struggle with the putter. That might not be as much of a problem on these fast surfaces and green complexes. He’s worth a look in GPPs.

Vincent Whaley (DK $7,700) – Whaley makes sense in all PGA DFS formats, and he’s one of the safer plays once we get under $8K. Since a missed cut at the Waste Management Open, Whaley has put together a pretty impressive string of made cuts (T50-T15-T36-T28-T34-T29-T26-T26-T20). While he didn’t appear at either of 2021’s major championships, he’s not tanking anybody’s PGA DFS lineups at this price point if he continues to grind out Sunday paychecks for himself.

Ben Martin (DK $7,600) – Martin has sloughed off the nagging back problems that stymied his career in 2017-18, when he was forced to take a leave of absence from the PGA Tour, and he’s another Clemson alum from South Carolina who’s seen a resurgence in 2021. He missed the cut at the RBC Heritage but has posted four top 35 finishes (including a T11 at the Wells Fargo and a T9 at the Corales Puntacana) among his last five tour starts.

Also consider: Garrick Higgo, Alex Noren, Kevin Kisner, Jhonattan Vegas (GPP), Scott Stallings (Cash) Luke List (GPP), Pat Perez (GPP), Sepp Straka, Rory Sabbatini

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Bo Hoag (DK $7,500) – Hoag missed six straight cuts in March and April before squeezing into the weekend at the birdie-forward AT&T Byron Nelson and finishing T13 at the Memorial last week. Still – that’s a good trend going into a golf course that plays to his strengths and where there are no sure things. That uncertainty should keep the masses off him at this elevated price, and he’s a perfectly sound risk-reward upside play at the Palmetto Championship.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $7,200) – I love deploying Burgoon on venues that could turn into birdie fests, and he’s a bigger hitter who may have been waiting to play this course, since his last start was a T13 at the Byron Nelson. He’s got plenty of PGA DFS bust potential as well, but the looming latent boom is what I’m focusing on, as he’ll come in at low ownership and be a fine value play in GPPs.

Joseph Bramlett (DK $7,100) – Bramlett collected the second top 10 of his PGA Tour career at the Byron Nelson, racking up 20 total birdies and two eagles. He’s probably not safe for cash games or single-entry, but I love the value in large-field GPPs and I’ll be coming in around 20% ownership in my 20-max entries.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,900) – Hammerin’ Hank checks a lot of the SG:APP boxes this week and fared well (T13) at the Byron Nelson, his most PGA Tour recent appearance. His last two starts before that yielded a T13 (Valspar) and a T51 (Wells Fargo), but he’s a volatile golfer who might be hard to trust in single-entry. Sia likes the sneakiness and I don’t disagree; I’ll have plenty of shares in large-field and 20-max GPPs, though.

John Pak (DK $6,900) – The 22-year-old Pak is playing in his first event as a pro, and it’s a debut where the field doesn’t have any advantage in terms of course history. That puts him squarely on my radar as a solid unknown bargain GPP play and a guy I’ll have lots of exposure to. He’s got plenty of game and the college accolades that go along with it, and we’ve seen players of his pedigree make the switch to professional golf without much of a learning curve. Giddyup.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – Hadley is an excellent putter who takes advantage of scoring opportunities – which really interests me at this price point. He’s had his struggles in 2021 but seems like a poor man’s Snedeker who can get hot with the flastick and get in the mix. At such a huge discount on a venue where he could easily find his game and make a run on the weekend, I’m buying.

More value golfers to consider: Seamus Power (GPP), Erik van Rooyen, Richy Werenski, Jason Dufner, Scott Piercy, Tom Lewis, Henrik Norlander, Roger Sloan, Cole Hammer, Chez Reavie, Will Gordon

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Aaron Baddeley (DK $6,500) – The $6,500 and under range at a weak-field event is usually bad, but this group doesn’t have a whole lot of upside. Baddeley, however, with his solid putter and grinder mindset, seems like a viable punt play. Nobody down here is worth more than 5-10% exposure in GPPs, but I’m hitching my wagon to the Aussie as one of the guys I’ll use at that limited rate.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – Once again, I’ll include Ventura considering just how good he is with the putter, a factor that could weigh more heavily this week on a course that not too many of these guys have played. I’ll stay south of 10% in my GPP exposure, but I do like his upside this week.

Additional GPP punts: Hudson Swafford, Brian Gay, Chris Baker, Bo Van Pelt, William McGirt

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Palmetto Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

This week we have an awkwardly placed PGA Tour tournament on the opposite coast of next week’s U.S. Open major. This leaves us with a Palmetto Championship that is not rich in talent, but make no mistake about it, the DFS payouts remain the same. I’ll be focused on OTT and APP with OTT coming in a little more important than normal (but not quite as important as APP). I’ll also be keying in on second shot proximities of 175 and above among the rest of the APP proximities. Finally, PUTT takes on a bit more importance as the greens will be fast and tricky. Check us out tonight on the PGA Livestream for discussion of the picks below and much more.

Brooks Koepka (11100) – We will talk, at length, about “The Brooks narrative” on the Palmetto Championship PGA Livestream/Podcast. I will be ignoring that narrative for the most part in the hopes of exploiting the huge talent gap. Brooks is number 1 in my model.

Matt Fitzpatrick (10400) – I wouldn’t say Fitz is a “contrarian” play but he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the 10k and above range. His APP numbers have been off, but it wouldn’t shock me if that starts to come around this week and he does check all of the other boxes for this course.

Alex Noren (8900) – Last week’s Win Daily Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned and less than 7k) is all the way up to 8900 this week and is now a staggering 36-9 overall. Last week we were ahead of the curve and this week the industry has caught up as indicated by the price. He’s expensive but the all-around game is there and he’s Number 4 in my model.

Lucas Glover (8600) – He will be popular as his recent play is great and he’s one of the few that has actually played this Palmetto Championship course at Congaree. With that said, his APP numbers have tailed off a bit as of the last 12 rounds so Glover is not a “go all-in” play, but he’s worth a look in some lineups.

Scott Stallings (8000) – Don’t look now but Stallings has made 5 cuts in a row. Does that mean he definitely makes the cut this week at The Palmetto Championship? Nope. It does mean that he’s on a trajectory that is different from most of the 8k and below golfers in this field. The upside may be limited, but the all-around consistency he’s shown over the last 20 rounds in field stronger than this one is intriguing.

Vincent Whaley (7700) – Maintains one of the longest cut streaks on the PGA Tour and the SG metrics are starting to bear that out. Put simply, this guy has been automatic and is consistently finishing among the Top 25. In this field I expect nothing different. Whaley will be a popular play this week so beware of ownership. I should note that I also like Luke List in this range, but I think he is better as a Showdown play than a full tournament play this week.

Ben Martin (7600) – Martin is really making strides this year and is a guy that I expect to emerge in a field like this one. His overall SG metrics are good other than some issues ARG, but he happens to be decent in the sand which is a point of emphasis this week. He’s a suprising 12^th in my model.

Roger Sloan (7000) – There are a lot of places to pivot this week, especially in the low end range, and I think Sloan is a good example of that. He will be low owned and I think he has the upside to make the cut and score some points. The short game can get Sloan in trouble, but I’m more willing to take that type of short game risk on a low priced guy like Sloan. A GPP play only.

Hank Lebioda (6900) – He is quickly becoming one of my sneaky guys as I’ve peppered him into plenty of lineups this year. Hammerin’ Hank has been good OTT and great on APP over the last 24 rounds and he’s been even better over the last 12 rounds. Short game may trip him up but I think he makes up for it with the ball striking. Already clicked a 150 to 1 outright ticket on him because, why not, right?

Robby Shelton (6700) – The 6k range is tough sledding but I think Robby has enough hot streaks to make a difference in your GPP lineups. It’s a risk for sure, but if you need to dip down this low I think it’s got some upside. More on 6k players on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-9. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
- > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
- Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
- Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
- Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
- Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Memorial Tournament: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges. This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT. As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal. More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.

Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value. I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier. He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes. I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like. He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity). Overall he’s 6^th OTT and 12^th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.

Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12^th in my 24 Round model (9^th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been. He finished 23^rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low. I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.

Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6^th in my model this week. His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week. I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.

Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament. No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close. He’s 2^nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG. The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great.

Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck. He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20^th OTT and 15^th APP. He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG. Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.

Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit. I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs. An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot. He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.

Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else. He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway. He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.

Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall. However he’s 13^th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.

Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21^st). He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG. If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.

Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament. Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.

Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice. He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8^th place finish last week. Also has a great track record here. Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your Memorial Tournament lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invitational field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
PGA Tour event since 1946
The course: Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, TX)
- Par 70: 7,209 yards – tight fairways with trees blocking approaches in spots
- Just two par 5s, both scoring holes despite the longer playing up to 635 yards
- Smaller Bentgrass greens
- Accuracy with irons and solid putting a must to win
- Texas weather could play a factor but nothing ominous in current forecast
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Off the Tee, Par 4 efficiency: (350-450)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.

Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.

Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.

Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.

Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

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