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PGA DFS Picks

The Palmetto Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

This week we have an awkwardly placed PGA Tour tournament on the opposite coast of next week’s U.S. Open major. This leaves us with a Palmetto Championship that is not rich in talent, but make no mistake about it, the DFS payouts remain the same. I’ll be focused on OTT and APP with OTT coming in a little more important than normal (but not quite as important as APP). I’ll also be keying in on second shot proximities of 175 and above among the rest of the APP proximities. Finally, PUTT takes on a bit more importance as the greens will be fast and tricky. Check us out tonight on the PGA Livestream for discussion of the picks below and much more.

Brooks Koepka (11100) – We will talk, at length, about “The Brooks narrative” on the Palmetto Championship PGA Livestream/Podcast. I will be ignoring that narrative for the most part in the hopes of exploiting the huge talent gap. Brooks is number 1 in my model.

Matt Fitzpatrick (10400) – I wouldn’t say Fitz is a “contrarian” play but he’s likely to be the lowest owned of the 10k and above range. His APP numbers have been off, but it wouldn’t shock me if that starts to come around this week and he does check all of the other boxes for this course.

Alex Noren (8900) – Last week’s Win Daily Secret Weapon (less than 5% owned and less than 7k) is all the way up to 8900 this week and is now a staggering 36-9 overall. Last week we were ahead of the curve and this week the industry has caught up as indicated by the price. He’s expensive but the all-around game is there and he’s Number 4 in my model.

Lucas Glover (8600) – He will be popular as his recent play is great and he’s one of the few that has actually played this Palmetto Championship course at Congaree. With that said, his APP numbers have tailed off a bit as of the last 12 rounds so Glover is not a “go all-in” play, but he’s worth a look in some lineups.

Scott Stallings (8000) – Don’t look now but Stallings has made 5 cuts in a row. Does that mean he definitely makes the cut this week at The Palmetto Championship? Nope. It does mean that he’s on a trajectory that is different from most of the 8k and below golfers in this field. The upside may be limited, but the all-around consistency he’s shown over the last 20 rounds in field stronger than this one is intriguing.

Vincent Whaley (7700) – Maintains one of the longest cut streaks on the PGA Tour and the SG metrics are starting to bear that out. Put simply, this guy has been automatic and is consistently finishing among the Top 25. In this field I expect nothing different. Whaley will be a popular play this week so beware of ownership. I should note that I also like Luke List in this range, but I think he is better as a Showdown play than a full tournament play this week.

Ben Martin (7600) – Martin is really making strides this year and is a guy that I expect to emerge in a field like this one. His overall SG metrics are good other than some issues ARG, but he happens to be decent in the sand which is a point of emphasis this week. He’s a suprising 12^th in my model.

Roger Sloan (7000) – There are a lot of places to pivot this week, especially in the low end range, and I think Sloan is a good example of that. He will be low owned and I think he has the upside to make the cut and score some points. The short game can get Sloan in trouble, but I’m more willing to take that type of short game risk on a low priced guy like Sloan. A GPP play only.

Hank Lebioda (6900) – He is quickly becoming one of my sneaky guys as I’ve peppered him into plenty of lineups this year. Hammerin’ Hank has been good OTT and great on APP over the last 24 rounds and he’s been even better over the last 12 rounds. Short game may trip him up but I think he makes up for it with the ball striking. Already clicked a 150 to 1 outright ticket on him because, why not, right?

Robby Shelton (6700) – The 6k range is tough sledding but I think Robby has enough hot streaks to make a difference in your GPP lineups. It’s a risk for sure, but if you need to dip down this low I think it’s got some upside. More on 6k players on the PGA Livestream.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 36-9. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final adjustments of your lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA DFS Picks: The Memorial Tournament

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

In this edition of PGA DFS picks, we’re looking for a big payday at the Memorial Tournament and helping you find some winning teams!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

VERY strong invitational field of 120 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Defending champion: Jon Rahm (-9)
2019 champ: Patrick Cantlay
The course: Muirfield Village (Dublin, OH)
- > 7,500 yards, Par 72 – Jack Nicklaus design (1972)
- Bentgrass Greens and other features endured massive reconstruction following 2020 tournaments
- Layout remains roughly the same but trees added to increase difficulty off the tee, possibly hurting some longer hitters
- Course comps with Firestone and Augusta National
- Scoring on Par 5s crucial on this difficult track
Expect soft conditions late Thursday after Wednesday and Thursday morning rain and some wind, which could cause delays
Current advantage seems to be late Thursday times
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach; SG: T2G, SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4s Gained (450-500), Bogey Avoidance, Birdie or Better %, Sand Saves, Proximity (175-200), Scrambling

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jon Rahm (DK $11,100) – Since it’s obvious there’s no real No. 1 player in the world, I’m fine looking to Rahm and his solid all-around game (he ranks third in the field for SG:T2G) – even though he’s had a somewhat spotty 2021. Jordan Spieth is guaranteed to be chalky after another great PGA DFS finish (solo second at the Charles Schwab), but he might be a little drained after three straight weeks of very competitive golf. Rahm’s ownership should be down even though he’s the defending champ, and his T8 finish at the PGA points to him trending upward following a week of rest to defend his title, which was not without controversy.

Rory McIlroy (DK $10,600) – Another golfer who’s been at the top of the mountain, McIlroy broke his slump at the Wells Fargo and returns to the site of one of the courses where he actually hasn’t won before. He’s a contrarian, GPP-only play for me this week, but his ownership should come back down a bit after a disappointing T49 at the PGA Championship. He probably won’t be on my single-entry teams, but I’ll try to be overweight in 20-max and larger field tournaments, where there’s still plenty of leverage in selecting one of the game’s all-time great players.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,200) – Where Bryson DeChambeau tends to force some things (like last year’s quintuple bogey OB meltdown in Round 2 when he ended up missing the cut), Thomas knows to plug away after bad shots on Muirfield. He just missed winning last year in the Workday (also played at Muirfield a week in advance of the 2020 Memorial), and we’re getting a big discount this year as he’s priced below his usual PGA DFS salary in the elite tier. I do like Bryson a bit in GPPs, but Thomas is probably the safer play.

Patrick Cantlay (DK $9,500) – We have a few safe bets for Top 15 finishes in the $9,500-$10K range, including weekly cash game maven Viktor Hovland and Xander Schauffele, who makes for an excellent GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship. As much as I like Xander and his T3 finish at Augusta, Cantlay has shown winning upside on this course. Despite a stretch of poor play that resulted in four straight missed cuts, he could be worth a look given his excellent track record at Muirfield Village.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth (Cash), Bryson DeChambeau (GPP) Viktor Hovland (Cash), Xander Schauffele (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Hideki Matsuyama (DK $9,400) – He won here in 2014 and his short game confidence is soaring after his win at Augusta, a venue that has some correlations with Muirfield Village. Deki is the best option and priced modestly just after the elite tier, which Sia mentioned in the breakdown that he might avoid altogether. Deki could be the linchpin for your balanced PGA DFS builds that focus on these golfers in this loaded $7-9K range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,700) – Fitzpatrick has played well here in his brief history, making the cut in his 2019 debut and finishing solo third last year in just his second try. I like this short-game specialist’s chances on these small greens even better in 2021, when the course has been made a little more difficult to weed out some of the longer hitters who may not be as accurate off the tee. He made the honorable mention in Isaiah’s picks article, and you all know how much I love the wispy Fitzpatrick in GPPs.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,600) –Smith has putted very well in 2021, and he ranks T6 this week in three-putt avoidance – a key stat this week. In fact, three-putt avoidance is the main reason I’m not including Collin Morikawa in my elite picks and prefer Hovland and JT in that range. His ball-striking isn’t quite on the same level as players like Keegan Bradley and Charley Hoffman, but the all-around game could see him break through this year and makes him interesting for GPPs.

Louis Oosthuizen (DK $8,500) – Both Louis and Hoffman are excellent cash game plays and can be used for single-entry GPPs as well. Oosty is solid with the flat stick (tops in the field for 2021 in SG: Putting) and has three straight made cuts here despite the lack of a Top 10 finish, but he has notched a top 10s in his last two starts and gained over five strokes on approach (SG:APP) in each of his last two tourneys. He’s worth a look in all formats and should stay mostly off the radar.

Charley Hoffman (DK $8,300) –On the flip side, everybody will be on Hoffman again, since he just hasn’t left the leaderboard lately. With Top 20s in five straight events and his best golf seemingly reserved for tougher courses. He’s taken his game to a new level in 2021, and while he will be very popular in all formats, I can’t advocate fading him in cash or single-entry GPP.

Rickie Fowler (DK $8,000) – He’s finally got some good mojo going after a strong PGA Championship, and now that he’s priced above $8K again, he’s fine for GPPs. I wouldn’t be forcing him into single-entry or any cash games, but he’s finally hitting some decent approaches and we know he has the short game (especially on Bentgrass) to finish in the Top 15 here. And unlike Patrick Reed (who I’m fading this week), he’s easy to root for.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,800) – He hasn’t missed a cut here since 2010, and he’s performed quite well with a slew of Top 15s over the past 10 years. Leishman might get forgotten even at this bargain price, so I’m looking to use him in some of my tournaments and just hope he doesn’t burn me – which he almost always does.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $7,600) – CBZ might just be the best putter in the world, and he relies heavily on his elite short game to place in events on both sides of the Atlantic. Over the South African’s last 50 rounds, he ranks 20th in Bogey Avoidance, second in SG: Putting and 10th in SG: Around the Green – great stats heading into the Memorial.

Also consider: Tony Finau, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Shane Lowry, Billy Horschel, Keegan Bradley, Gary Woodland, Adam Scott, Jason Day (GPP), Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kevin Streelman (DK $7,500) – Before 2015, Streelman was all over the place at the Memorial, but he’s made six straight cuts here and the increase in difficulty may help him stay relevant among the longer hitters. I’m a little worried that he’s burned out from playing a lot of high-stakes golf in the last few weeks, but he’s a tour veteran who’s used to grinding, so that shouldn’t keep you from rostering him in GPPs.

Matt Wallace (DK $7,400) – Wallace makes for a wonderful value play in this price range, especially considering his T4 finish here in 2020 and the decent form he arrives with. The wind blowing harder on Thursday morning and his early tee time doesn’t bother me as much as some of the other guys who don’t strike it as well in the wind.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – The tightening of the driving demands this year is cause for some concern, but Kizzire is popping in many of the focus stat categories and his putting (Top 10 in both SG: P and 3-putt avoidance) has been awesome in 2021. The big fella hasn’t had much success at the Memorial, but there’s a first time for everything and his game is looking good upon arrival.

Brendan Todd (DK $7,200) – Todd is a straight hitter with an overall game that’s shaping up a bit since a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw from the Wells Fargo, He missed the cut at the PGA Championship but finished T8 last week at Colonial on Bentgrass greens. I’m not planning on being crazy overweight, but the price is good and he finished T22 here last June.

Luke List (DK $6,900) – List finished T10 here last June and while he won’t be popular this week, he seems to be a textbook GPP play considering the price and the dynamic quality his game provides. Far from safe, List often has meltdowns on the green and is biggest problem is the 3-putt, where he ranks near the bottom of the PGA rankings with guys like List as my “problematic play” – a low ownership dart throw who could shine if he avoids the three-jacks with the flatstick this week.

Danny Willett (DK $6,600) – Willett plays well in wind, so the early Thursday time doesn’t throw me off too much, and he’s had a couple of Top 35 finishes here in his only two attempts in 2019 and 2020. I love the price, and while he might not win, he makes for excellent value this week and could make for a pretty cheap “last two spots” filler play in stars-and-scrubs builds, especially alongside some of the guys in the next tier. For instance, rostering Wallace, Willett and a mispriced Kyle Stanley gives you $9,966 for your top three spends.

More value golfers to consider: Si Woo Kim, Chris Kirk, Sebastian Munoz, Aaron Wise, Troy Merritt (GPP), C.T. Pan, Adam Hadwin (GPP), Mackenzie Hughes (GPP)

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Brendan Steele (DK $6,500) – Like many of the golfers priced in this range, Steele’s putter suffers a bit, but he’s made 14 of his last 17 cuts and that’s a nice bonus for any golfer under $7K. He’s not that strong a finisher, so the upside is a little bit lacking as well, but he had a week of rest and checks in as my “gut” punt play in 1/20 large-field GPPs.

Kyle Stanley (DK $6,100) – Stanley’s late addition resulted in a pricing error by DK, but he’s played very well at the Memorial in the past, with a T6 in 2018 and T2 in 2019. The course may play a little tougher than it did then, but Stanley needs to be considered as a core stars-and-scrubs play if you’re spending big money with your first few selections.

Russell Knox (DK $6,100) – Like Sia, I was drawn to the super low price and upside that Knox offers. He’s not nearly as “safe” as Stanley – although both golfers can struggle with the putter – and while the early tee time on Thursday isn’t quite as beneficial, he’s 4-for-4 here since 2016.

Additional GPP punts: Patrick Rodgers, Michael Thompson, Henrik Norlander

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

The Memorial Tournament: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The appropriately timed Memorial Tournament kicks off on Thursday with a talented field and plenty of opportunity across all price ranges. This week I will be focusing on APP and ARG with a little less attention to OTT. As far as OTT goes, as always, distance helps but I’m more concerned with driving accuracy as the rough will be penal. More on the course dynamics, key metrics (i.e. – proximities) and all the players in the field on tonight’s PGA Livestream at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to The Memorial Tournament Initial Picks.

Jordan Spieth (11300) – I really don’t like this elite range and I’m having a hard time finding someone worth the value. I’ve narrowed it down to Jordan Spieth as he’s got the best all-around game of the upper tier. He’s been doing a bit better in terms of keeping it in the fairway and he checks all other boxes. I worry about a let-down after such a good stretch of golf so feel free to start your builds in the 9k range.

Viktor Hovland (9900) – What’s not to like. He’s either good or great in almost every metric I looked at this week (other than some poor play in the 150-175 proximity). Overall he’s 6^th OTT and 12^th on APP in this field and his short game has been just fine.

Patrick Cantlay (9500) –Rates out 12^th in my 24 Round model (9^th on APP last 24 rounds), which is actually pretty surprising considering how lackluster his game has been. He finished 23^rd at the PGA Championship and seemed to have put his game back in order so I think I want to grab Cantlay early if ownership is low. I’ll note his track record at The Memorial Tournament is quite good, as is his track record on Jack Nicklaus designs.

Louis Oosthuizen (8500) – Louis is a surprise 6^th in my model this week. His ball striking is good and his short game is excellent and he’s just the type of guy to navigate what should be a tough test this week. I’ll note I also like Matthew Fitzpatrick and Shane Lowry in this range, but didn’t want to write up too many guys in this range.

Charley Hoffman (8300) – Hoffman and Keegan (below) are the closest thing to a free square in this tournament. No, there isn’t anyone who is “safe” from the cut, but Hoffman is pretty darn close. He’s 2^nd in the field on APP last 24 rounds, keeps it in the fairway and grades out tremendously ARG. The one watch out for The Hoff is his history at the Memorial Tournament isn’t great.

Keegan Bradley (8000) – If you want to try to find a flaw in his game, good luck. He’s actually improving with the putter and has been striking the ball to the tune of 20^th OTT and 15^th APP. He also keeps it in the fairway and is Top 10 ARG. Keegan and Charley will be popular but are perfect for your cash lineups.

Emiliano Grillo (7700) – With an extra emphasis on ARG this week, Grillo does scare me a bit. I still think the price is fair and I don’t mind dialing him up in GPPs. An excellent ball striker who has improved a bit with the putter, he’s worth a shot. He had an MC last year but has been inside the Top 25 3 of his last 5 efforts at The Memorial.

Kevin Streelman (7500) – Another guy who has some issues ARG, but has been lights out pretty much everywhere else. He’s Top 20 in this field last 24 rounds OTT and APP and keeps it in the fairway. He’s made his last 5 cuts here and that includes two Top 10 finishes.

Talor Gooch (7100) – Metrics don’t jump out at me necessarily as they are pretty average across the board overall. However he’s 13^th APP last 24 rounds and I think we may be finding him on an upward trajectory based on his 5 cuts out of his last 6 tournaments.

Aaron Wise (7000) – Rates out pretty high in my model (21^st). He’s been keeping it in the fairway and is in the top 40 OTT, APP and ARG. If he’s even decent with the putter he will find his way past the cut and toward some DK scoring over the weekend.

Alex Noren (6800) – Finishing positions have been very good as of late and he does have a good enough all-around game to do well at The Memorial Tournament. Noren feels like a boom or bust play so GPP only.

Kyle Stanley (6100) – Sometimes questionable with the short game but has been excellent lately and this is a clear misprice. He’s made 4 cuts in a row and had an 8^th place finish last week. Also has a great track record here. Not a lock button but you need to grab shares.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-9. See you in Discord.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The next event for PGA DFS takes us to “Hogan’s Alley” for the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club – where we’re giving you the winning picks!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Invitational field of 121 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
PGA Tour event since 1946
The course: Colonial Country Club (Fort Worth, TX)
- Par 70: 7,209 yards – tight fairways with trees blocking approaches in spots
- Just two par 5s, both scoring holes despite the longer playing up to 635 yards
- Smaller Bentgrass greens
- Accuracy with irons and solid putting a must to win
- Texas weather could play a factor but nothing ominous in current forecast
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Around the Green, Bogey Avoidance, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), SG: Off the Tee, Par 4 efficiency: (350-450)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Jordan Spieth (DK $11,200) – A Texas kid born in the Dallas-Fort Worth golf mecca, Spieth is a former winner here (2016), has never missed a cut at Colonial, and has a host of Top 10s, even in recent years when his game has struggled to find some consistency. With his putter always in form and his ball-striking ranking much better in 2021, Spieth can’t be avoided when discussing the favorites this week.

Justin Thomas (DK $10,300) – JT makes for a great GPP play after a missed cut at the PGA Championship, but he’s still a bit risky given his spotty play recently. PGA DFS can be very frustrating when you’re on a guy (and an expensive guy to boot) and he breaks your heart by missing out on the weekend points and killing your lineup. But there’s nothing worse than fading that same guy the next week and watching him win. For that reason, it’s important to run it back one in a while and I’ll be doing that with JT at Colonial.

Collin Morikawa (DK $10,500) – Morikawa checks all the boxes this week except the putting stats, but the greens are small enough that if he’s doing his thing with his irons he should be close enough to make some putts. One of the best ball strikers in the world, Morikawa hits a smooth fade, doesn’t need length off the tee to win here and that’s a huge plus in giving him the nod over the others in this elite range. Sia, Joel and Nick are all on board, so I feel comfortable using him in my single-entry lineup and GPP core.

Abraham Ancer (DK $9,700) – Ancer has three consecutive Top 10s and while he will be chalky as hell, he’s hard for me to get away from in my builds. I’ll be using him in all formats, and he’ll be a core play for me in stars and scrubs lineups as well. If his putter goes cold he could have problems justifying this price, but he’s been so good with his irons he’s almost always in play.

Also consider: Patrick Reed, Will Zalatoris, Scottie Scheffler (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Corey Conners (DK $9,400) – It may still be wise to steer clear of Conners in GPPs until we see more Top 10 finishes, but he’s a cutmaker who’s 3-for-3 at Colonial and had a T8 in his 2018 debut at this venue. Again – Conners is mostly a cash game play with projected ownership creeping up.

Sungjae Im (DK $9,100) – Im missed the cut here in his 2019 Charles Schwab debut but improved to a T10 (with Spieth and Thomas) in 2020. We know he doesn’t tire easily, so the four grueling rounds he played steadily last week (70-72-73-73) don’t get me off him. The price is fine, and he won’t see massively high ownership.

Justin Rose (DK $8,900) –Maybe Rose will be inspired by Phil’s epic win at Kiawah Island last week, and we know the former winner at Colonial can play elite golf when he’s striking it well. Rose makes for a sneaky GPP play in a week where he won’t be highly owned.

Ryan Palmer (DK $8,600) –Palmer missed the cut last week andhas a vested interest in playing well at his home course. He loves the place, knows the greens really well, wants desperately to win at the venue commonly known as “Hogan’s Alley” and should stand out as a solid GPP play with his history of mixing MCs with Top 10s here.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,100) – Let’s start with the bad. During round 2 last week, Tringale was -1 when he stepped on the No. 14 tee (he started on the back) and was +11 just four holes later. Then a little alligator walked across the fairway in front of him. That horrific stretch aside, Tringale played well and has the chops to rebound with a soldi finish this week.

Brian Harman (DK $8,000) – Harman looks like more of a cash game play this week, as he’s projected to be very popular (>25%). I won’t be using him too much more than 10-15% in my 20 max builds, but there’s a case to be made for using him and his five straight made cuts at Colonial.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,900) – Mr. Pop Stroke is one of the craftiest putters on tour, and the relatively poor ball striking and lack of length off the tee shouldn’t hurt him too much here. Sneds is super risky and shouldn’t be used in cash games but makes sense for large-field GPPs.

Chris Kirk (DK $7,600) – He’s missed two straight cuts, but people haven’t forgotten how good of a golfer he’s been in 2021, because he’s very popular again. I’ll throw out his performance last week because of the course difficulty, and trust he got an early start on getting his T2G and putting under control heading into an event where he’s had two Top 15s in his last four tries.

Also consider: Joaquin Niemann, Gary Woodland (GPP), Jason Kokrak (GPP), Charley Hoffman (Cash), Kevin Na (GPP), Kevin Streelman, Emiliano Grillo (GPP)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Peter Uihlein (DK $7,500) – I’m not super excited about the $7-8K price range this week, and the fact that Uihlein is popping so much for his form could mean he breaks my heart this week. I don’t normally play him, but it’s his fourth appearance here and he has top 15s in his last two tries and is playing some of the best golf right now.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,400) – He’s an awesome putter and his best finishes and have come in Texas. I’m not super excited about him this week because if he’s missing fairways there could be problems, but I think he can hit less-than-driver and be long enough to be in fine shape to contend. Not a cash game play, but usable in GPPs.

Harold Varner III (DK $7,400) – Another GPP extraordinaire who mixes missed cuts with solid finishes, Varner had a T2 at the RBC Heritage and T49 last week. He also finished T19 at the Honda Classic, which is similar in the focus stats that tend to drive success here.

Russell Knox, (DK $7,300) – Sia loves him for first-round leader, and it’s very tempting to consider him for single-entry this week given the price point and solid performances over his last three events (T21-T18-T39), He finished T8 here in 2019 but we can throw out the MC in 2020 amid the uncertainty of golf’s fanless return at the time.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,900) – I liked him heading into last week but the course and some bad timing on Friday 78 got the better of him. This week, he’s cheap and playing a venue where he’s 3-for-4 with a T10 last year and a T20 in 2018. GPP only.

Maverick McNealy (DK $6,900) – I use McNealy in GPPs once in a while and this seems like a good spot to go back to him. He’s 2-for-2 and while he’s a feast-or-famine type of golfer (he’s mixed in a solo second, a T4 and a T49 among six missed cuts in his last nine tournaments), this course seems to suit his strengths.

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,700) – I wish Rodgers could put together four good rounds, because he’s got Top 25 upside. A third round 79 killed his chances at the Well Fargo, but he’s made his last two cuts after a poor April stretch. Worth a look in GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Cameron Davis, Joel Dahmen, Talor Gooch, Doc Redman (GPP), C.T. Pan (GPP), Rory Sabbatini, Henrik Stenson, Mackenzie Hughes, Andrew Putnam

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

Adam Long (DK $6,200) – I’ll only be using these guys in large-field GPP lineups that focus on stars and scrubs. If you’re trying to cram some combo of Spieth and/or JT with Morikawa/Ancer/Zalatoris in your first three spots, you’re forced to use the next three on guys like Long, who finished T19 here in 2019 and could post another Top 20.

Brian Gay (DK $6,100) – Gay has a T13 and T34 two of his last three appearances at Colonial, and I’m sure he was one of the first golfers my buddy Spades inserted into his lineup this week. The veteran golfer loves small greens (just like C.T. Pan does) and he’s in play as a longshot with Top 25 upside.

Mark Hubbard (DK $6,100) – Hubbard’s name also draws my attention because he an get rally hot with the putter, which is one of the things that could help guys break through this week. He’s much better for single-day lineups but I’m fine using him in 5% of GPPs hoping for a made cut and hot streak with that flat stick.

Additional GPP punts: Rafael Cabrera-Bello, Anirban Lahiri

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

Charles Schwab Challenge: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

This week the PGA Tour is back in Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge. This Par 70 is 7200 yards which is relatively short, bringing shorter hitters very much in play. I’ll be focusing on APP from all ranges, but particularly 175 and below, and I will also be focusing on driving accuracy. Accurate drives should set up nicely for solid ball strikers who can hit the relatively small greens, thereby avoiding the need to lean on ARG game. You’ll see that theme throughout my Charles Schwab Challenge picks below. Join us tonight for the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream for more on all these picks and many more. And make sure you get into Discord on Wednesday for our final adjustments, ownership pivots and weather edges.

Collin Morikawa (10500) – After some time off Collin kicked it right back in gear with a Top 10 at the PGA Championship. Morikawa is number 1 on APP over the last 24 rounds which is no surprise and he nearly won this thing last year with a 2^nd place finish. I’ll note that I also like Jordan Spieth and I have no issue with wanting to pay up for him. If you’re looking for ownership leverage in this range, Patrick Reed and Daniel Berger are your guys.

Abraham Ancer (9700) – An elite ball striker who has made 8 cuts in a row while never finishing worse than 30^th in that stretch. Add to that three Top 10s in his last three tournaments and a 14^th place finish last time on this course. Number 1 in my model. He will be garner a lot of ownership so know that going in.

Corey Conners (9400) – Another elite ball striker with a good track record on this course and good recent history. His biggest downfall is ARG which shouldn’t be too big of a factor for an elite ball striker like Conners. Another guy who is likely to have a lot of ownership. If you’re looking for a low owned pivot in a big GPP, Jason Kokrak and Gary Woodland should be under 10%.

Charley Hoffman (8700) – You may sense a theme with the good ball strikers this week, and frankly, I think many others will gravitate to guys like Hoffman because of the value. Hoffman has been a Top 20 machine (Top 20 finishes in 6 of his last 7 tournaments) and in this field I think he can deliver much more.

Cameron Tringale (8100) – The strokes gained metrics took a considerable hit after a horrific Day 2 at the PGA Championship and I’m hopeful DFS’ers are weary of that and stay away from Tringale. As for me, I think he’s a good course fit and I expect him to rebound nicely this week. The game has been up and down lately so he’s more of a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Emiliano Grillo (7900) – Grillo is always a great ball striker who struggles with the short game, particularly the putter. He’s best suited for shorter courses like this one where he doesn’t need to bomb it off the tee. The APP game is in check as he was one of the best last week (gaining over 7 strokes on the field). He actually gained a bit with the putter as well last week which is a great sign.

Chris Kirk (7600) – Kirk is not dominant in any one particular area, but he has a great all-around game, particularly when it comes to shorter courses. There is definitely value here but if initial ownership projections are accurate, then I’m fine with pivoting off of him (I’m willing to eat some chalk, but Kirk will be one of my first pivots if he is highly owned. Stay tuned for @SicilyKid ownership projection article on Wednesday evening).

Russell Knox (7300) – Russ has been pretty good as of late with three made cuts in a row. His APP game has really been clicking and excels in the shorter APP proximities, which is what he will see for the most part this week. The putting has been bad but he’s a veteran and I expect him to find his range. His last three here have been MC, 8^th and 20^th. He’ll be lower owned making him a very solid GPP play.

Matthew NeSmith (7300) – He’ll keep it in the fairway and will strike it well on APP. As you might expect, the short game has some issues, but I’m happy to take my chances with NeSmith here. He played The Charles Schwab Challenge for the first time in 2020 and finished 49^th. Another lower owned guy that will allow you to pick up some chalk in other spots.

Tom Hoge (6800) – A nice course fit as Hoge can keep it in the fairway and is great on APP (last 24 rounds he’s Top 10 in the field). The big issue with Hoge is ARG and PUTT and it’ll need to be a leap of faith in terms of getting your lineup to the finish line, but this is a great course for Hoge so now is the time to consider rostering him.

Vincent Whaley (6200) – What if I told you that there is a guy priced at 6200 who has made 9 consecutive cuts (which rates as tied for the 4^th longest cut streak on the PGA Tour). What if that’s all that I told you, would you roster him? I would.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – Current record is 35-8. See you in Discord.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: The PGA Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

The second major of the year in PGA DFS provides an opportunity for you to dominate with our winning picks and analysis at the PGA Championship.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Major championship field of 155 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 70 and ties play the weekend, no secondary cut
Third big event at this host course (second PGA Championship and one Ryder Cup)
The course: Kiawah Island Ocean Course (Kiawah Island, SC – Pete Dye design)
- Par 72: 7,800+ yards – a very long course without too many birdie holes and trouble everywhere in the forms of ocean, cliffs, thick marshland vegetation and huge traps
- Seven par 4s over 450 yards
- All Paspalum surfaces and small greens – Paspalum grows with no grain, so less roll out and lots of spin
- Fully exposed links-style layout, but fairways not wide open and wind will be a factor
- Hard to find comps, but El Camaleon and Puntacana both have Paspalum and the toughest Pete Dye courses (Whistling Straits, Harbour Town, TPC Sawgrass & TPC Stadium) provide some comparisons
Weather: Slight chance of some rain but mostly sunny skies Thursday and Sunday with best scoring day looking like Saturday (winds at just 10 mph)
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Short Game/Around the Green, Bogey and Three-Putt Avoidance, SG: Putting, Par 4: (450-500)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Rory McIlroy (DK $11,500) – Fresh off a one-stroke win at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow, McIlroy is the betting favorite this week and the top-priced golfer on the board. While there’s no way I’m fading him completely this week, he’s bound to be popular, so I’m okay coming a little underweight on the field. The course – where he won the 2012 PGA Championship by a decisive eight shots – fits his game well. The eventual Hall of Famer from Northern Ireland is averaging 318 yards per drive this year, good for second on the PGA Tour, but his driving accuracy ranks just 175th – a stat that still scares me a little bit. He missed the cut at both the Players and the Masters, so he’ll be out to prove he’s truly back this week – right along with the cadre of fans he draws so much energy from.

Justin Thomas (DK $11,300) – JT’s win at the Players’ Championship on the Pete Dye design at TPC Sawgrass convinced me his game is in fine enough shape to contend at the coastal test of Kiawah Island – which earned the moniker “Looney Dunes” when it was played at the 1991 Ryder Cup. Thomas already has one PGA Championship under his belt (2017) on a course that provided a tough test for its competitors, and I like his ability to bounce back from bad bounces, bad holes and bad stretches a lot more than the sometimes erratic Bryson DeChambeau and Jon Rahm, who may currently lack the killer instinct and unflappable mindset to perform at his best this week. JT’s game is a complete one – and if he can continue to gain strokes around the green and get hot with the putter, the sky’s the limit.

Jordan Spieth (DK $10,100) – Spieth has played excellent golf in 2021, and his ball-striking is finally coming around the match his epic short game. We did see Spieth chunk a few chips and pitches last week, but I’ll chalk that up to anecdotal errors and assume the empirical brilliance he’s demonstrated under pressure around the greens throughout his career will take precedence over a few minor flubs. Golf Digest ranked the Ocean Course the toughest in the country, and Tiger Woods has compared the Ocean Course’s long, links-like layout to Whistling Straits, where Spieth contended against eventual winner Jason Day in 2015. He’s a fine play in all formats, and since he’s healthy now, I like him a little better than the more expensive Dustin Johnson, who WD last week due to a knee injury.

Xander Schauffele (DK $9,600) – Xander’s my favorite play in the lower half of the elite tier, although he’s still waiting to hoist his first major trophy after several close calls. Schauffele’s performance in majors during his brief career has been quite impressive – with top 25s in 11 of his 15 major events to date, including eight top 10s, six top 5s and a T3 just two starts ago at the Masters in April. Since then, he’s finished T11 at the Zurich alongside teammate Patrick Cantlay and T14 at the Wells Fargo. His time is coming, and this week might very well be it.

Also consider: Dustin Johnson (GPP), Collin Morikawa

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Viktor Hovland (DK $9,300) – Hovland’s consistent play in 2021 includes just one MC and an incredible six finishes inside the Top 6 in his last 10 starts. He’s been a free square in cash games and provides ample GPP value despite his popularity in PGA DFS. He’s probably the least contrarian you can go if your goal is to build a safe lineup with some upside, and while he’s yet to win a major (or even crack a Top 10) in his young career, he’s not very far from greatness. His demeanor, his ball-striking and his positive attitude should go a long way this week in all formats.

Cameron Smith (DK $8,900) – Smith is my favorite pick in the $8-9K range and I’ll be pinning a lot of my GPP hopes on him posting a Top 10 finish. He’s lodged somewhere in the top 15 or 20 power rankings for a lot of sharps this week, and his dominance on par 3s and par 5s over the past few months points to an ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities. That, combined with his ability to avoid three-putts (third overall heading into this week) usually helps him get it done regardless of the venue.

Will Zalatoris (DK $8,800) – Zalatoris seems to save his best golf for the biggest moments and the toughest golf courses, so he’s definitely one to watch this week at the Ocean Course. His seemingly effortless combination of power off the tee and precision on his approaches took a week off at the Wells Fargo, but he’s a very good bet for a Top 25 at Kiawah Island amid a strong field and a slew of big names who’ve already sealed the deal with multiple major wins. I’m not quite ready to go all-in just yet, but I’ll gladly get ahead of the field in my GPP ownership this week and see where it all shakes out.

Tony Finau (DK $8,600) – I’ve said “never again” too many times to count with Finau, but he’s talking confidently about his ability to win a major (despite just one career PGA Tour win to his credit) and he’s so damn good off the tee. I’ve thrown out a lot of the usual models I’ve been relying on for “lesser” tournaments since attitude and form go a long way in determining performance at a major championship venue this challenging, but Finau is one of the golfers who usually fares well on paper and just seems to lack the fortitude to finish tournaments. He’s flying under the radar this week and the team is off him, but for me there’s some leverage as a GPP pivot in the Will Z/Cam Smith range.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $8,400) – Fitzpatrick killed a lot of PGA DFS lineups this past week but scoring fests like the Byron Nelson are not where the wispy Englishman plays his best golf. His overall short game and precise ball-striking are his biggest strengths, and while he’s not insanely long (No. 168 on tour in Driving Distance), he ranks 16th on tour in SG:OTT – a huge stat this week since missing the fairway won’t be an easy fix on most of these holes. Fitzpatrick is having his best season on the PGA tour in 2020-21, and I can’t advocate leaving him out of your player pool.

Tyrrell Hatton (DK $8,000) – Hatton ranks ninth on the PGA Tour in SG:APP and is in the top 20 for SG:OTT – the top two stats this week. While his performance around the greens remains his biggest bugaboo, he seems to step up and avoid three putts just enough on tough golf courses. He also should be recovered from the positive COVID test that forced him to withdraw from the Valspar in late April. The price is tempting, but I’ll be limiting my ownership levels to around 10% in GPPs since he’s yet to post a Top 15 finish on the PGA Tour in 2021.

Abraham Ancer (DK $7,900) – Ancer is a cut-making and ball-striking machine who’s yet to post a Top 10 major championship finish, but he’s coming in extremely hot: solo fifth at the Valspar, solo second at the Wells Fargo – performances which came on the heels of five straight finishes in the Top 26. He’s always among the leaders in SG:APP and Bogey Avoidance, and the only thing that could keep him from posting another Top 25 this week is his short game. Still – he’ll be a GPP staple and is a fine play in just about any format.

Paul Casey (DK $7,700) – Playing a chalky Casey could end up burning me, but I don’t care. The pedigree and price are just too good to pass up this week. The missed cut at the RBC Heritage is just about the only blemish on his 2021 record, and he’s notched five top 10 finishes this year, including a win at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, which took place at a course grassed with – you guessed it – Paspalum. There are a lot of Euro Tour regulars I like this week, and Casey has proven to have winning upside on the International stage, even if he’s yet to notch a major win.

Marc Leishman (DK $7,600) – Please don’t forget about Leishman this week. He finished T5 at the Masters, and he’s had a slew of good performances in wind, something that he and fellow Aussie Cameron Smith know a lot about from the gusty tracks “down under.” He’s coming off a breezy T21 at TPC Craig Ranch and he finished T27 at Kiawah island in the 2012 PGA Championship. If he’s not mega-popular, I’ll be on board in GPPs and will consider him for a balanced single-entry build.

Also consider: Hideki Matsuyama, Webb Simpson, Patrick Reed (GPP), Daniel Berger, Scottie Scheffler (GPP), Louis Oosthuizen, Corey Conners (Cash)

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Sam Burns (DK $7,500) – The price is way too low for his current form and ability with the driver and flat stick; his putting numbers have shown marked improvement in 2021 and are the main reason he’s been so good lately. His irons haven’t been awful either, and Burns will be a tough fade if you’re looking for balanced builds. The timing for him playing the best golf of his young career couldn’t be better, and he’s really easy to root for.

Keegan Bradley (DK $7,300) – The 34-year-old has loads of experience on Paspalum, and the way he’s been driving the ball and striking it, he’s going to be a core play of mine in single-entry, GPP and cash. I’ll be approaching 40 percent overall ownership and taking the big plunge. Bradley already has a PGA Championship under his belt – his lone major victory – and he’s playing the best golf of his career since that zenith, which came when he was just a young man of 25.

Charley Hoffman (DK $7,300) – I don’t go overweight on Hoffman, but he plays his best golf in tough competition on long and challenging golf courses. He’s made eight straight cuts and finished outside the top 35 only once (a T52 at the Genesis Invitational) during that stretch – which includes a solo second at the Valero Texas open and consecutive T18s in his last two events.

Jason Kokrak (DK $7,100) – He’s just about the best value on the board, along with veterans Stewart Cink and Charl Schwartzel, and he’s yet to miss a cut in 2021 – a season that’s seen the tour veteran post a T9 at the Players and three more Top 15 finishes. It’s debatable whether or not his breakthrough win in 2020 has given him the confidence to finally contend at a major – where his performance over the past few years has been spotty at best – but this golf course seems to play to his strengths.

Stewart Cink (DK $6,900) – One of the most surprising stats about the 47-year-old PGA Tour stalwart’s recent resurgence is his Driving Distance (No. 23 on tour). That length should help him tackle these long par 4s and his No. 9 rank in Bogey Avoidance will hopefully get him another solid finish in the PGA Championship – a major he hasn’t played since 2018 when he finished T4 at Bellerive Country Club.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $6,800) – The Win Daily team has given you Schwartzel’s name week after week, and I’ve had him covered even before his T26 at the Masters and subsequent T21-T14-T3, a progression that’s been impressive considering the dynamic differences among the courses during that stretch. He’s one of a handful of golfers under $7K who I’ll be rostering in more than 15% of my GPP lineups, and he’s brimming with confidence heading into a major where he’s made the cut six straight times since a missed cut in 2013. Over the course of his career, Schwartzel has 18 Top 25s in the 52 major championships he’s played in a professional career that started when he was just 18 years old in 2002.

Christian Bezuidenhout (DK $6,800) – CBZ, as I like to call him for brevity’s sake, is my off-the-wall value play. He’s piqued my interest for his dominance around the greens, where he ranks second on the PGA tour in SG:ARG behind just Fabian Gomez. His ball-striking is a concern, but on a course that plays this difficult for everybody, I’m willing to take a chance and include him in a few of my 20-max GPPs.

Thomas Pieters (DK $6,800) – On the other end of the spectrum, we have a Belgian EURO golfer who strikes the ball well and is long enough off the tee to contend on this course. There’s not a lot of PGA Tour data, but his ranks put him among the Top 65 in plenty of key categories, and his form is decent. Before his missed cut at the Byron Nelson, he posted four straight Top 15s in tournaments here and abroad.

More value golfers to consider: Gary Woodland (GPP), Lee Westwood, Matt Wallace, Brian Harman, Garrick Higgo, Max Homa (GPP), Matt Jones, Cameron Tringale, Rickie Fowler (GPP), Chris Kirk, Talor Gooch (GPP), Thomas Detry

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Dean Burmester (DK $6,300) –I love the form (Win-T4-T6 in his last three EURO events), and while he’s a huge risk playing inside the United States, where he’s only played two majors – both U.S. Opens (T56-MC). I won’t go into too much detail about the South African because I don’t have a lot – but in this price range I’m willing to use him a bit and hope he sneaks into the weekend and gets on a decent run.

J.T. Poston (DK $6,100) – There’s not a lot of golfers to seriously consider in this price range, but Poston’s putter (fourth on tour in SG:P) and distance off the tee (300+) gets him into the conversation. He doesn’t three-putt too much and while his ball-striking is a concern, once in a while he shines. For this price in GPPs, he can’t hurt you too much if you keep him under 10%.

Additional GPP punts: Brendan Steele (GPP), Tom Lewis, Lanto Griffin, Erik van Rooyen, Harry Higgs, Andy Sullivan

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

PGA Championship: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The year’s second major is upon us with the PGA Championship. This course is a 7876 Par 72 which is extremely long. Add to that the wind could be a big factor all week and you’re looking at tough scoring conditions. I’ll be focused on players with good long and short games and I will be keying in on OTT, APP (including from longer proximities, i.e. 175-200+) and ARG. More on course dynamics and SG metrics on our PGA Livestream and Podcast tomorrow at 8:00 EST. Now let’s get to the PGA Championship picks.

Rory Mcilroy (11500) – Tweaked his game a bit with the help of coach Steve Cowen and now looks to be in really good shape for a major takedown (pun obviously intended). Even when Rory was allegedly playing poorly, he was pretty great OTT (rates out 6^th over the last 50 rounds and is longest in driving distance in the field over last 24 rounds) and the rest of his game appears to be catching up.

Xander Schauffele (9600) – He checks all the boxes with a great all around game and has an excellent track record in majors. Xander isn’t as elite in any one metric relative to some of the other guys in this range, but he’s good at everything, and that’s what I’m looking for this week.

Viktor Hovland (9300) – Because of his anticipated popularity, I may end up liking Hovland more as a cash play rather than a tournament play, but we will need to wait and see projected ownership. Hovland has had some bouts of bad play lately but overall he checks all the boxes other than some potential issues with ARG.

Daniel Berger (8700) – I’ve never really been on team Berger, but I can’t deny how good he has been in terms of managing great finishes. He’s been hovering around the Top 20 with finishes and with OTT and T2G metrics. He doesn’t hit the ball a long way like I’d prefer this week, but I’m willing to overlook that. It’s not sexy, but it’s solid at this price.

Abraham Ancer (7900) – Ancer is another elite ball striker who has been piling up great finishes. He’s Top 20 OTT over the last 50 rounds and rates out 2^nd over the last 12 rounds. The T2G game checks out too as he is Top 30 over last 50 rounds and 7^th over the last 12 rounds.

Paul Casey (7700) – Not many flaws in the game for Paul Casey. He doesn’t do anything particularly elite but he’s above average in pretty much everything. He is as balanced as they come and I consider him a ‘safer’ play among the 7k range for the PGA Championship.

Keegan Bradley (7300) – We get into some scary territory down in this range, but I’m happy to lean on Keegan as the ball striking checks out. He has been a little shaky over the last 12 rounds OTT but over the last 50 rounds (and over his career as a whole) he’s been great OTT and APP. The ARG game is good as well and it’ll just come down to the putter.

Charley Hoffman (7300) – He has been very good T2G and presents as a great value at this price. Hits it long enough off the tee to be alright with the length of this course (305 yards last 24 rounds. My preference is for the driving distance to be 300+ this week).

Si Woo Kim (7200) – A Pete Dye specialist who checks most of the boxes as he’s been great T2G (15^th over last 50 rounds and 18^th over last 12) and his ARG game is very good. This feels like great value.

Jason Kokrak (7100) – I almost wrote up Matt Jones at this exact price, and I do like MJ, but I like Kokrak a bit better. The ball striking has been great, but the ARG game can give him some issues. Either way, I’ll take the upside with the ball striking and the good recent finishing positions.

Stewart Cink (6900) – The length of this course shouldn’t bother Cink (Top 10 OTT last 24 rounds) and I think he’ll be able to grind out a made cut with how well he’s been playing lately. Beware of an ARG game that is less than stellar.

Charl Schwartzel (6800) – I was all over him last week and it really paid off. He’s been striking the ball very well and has the short game to check all the boxes. Great value here.

Secret Weapon (under 7k/under 5% owned) – Current record is 35-7. See you in Discord.

If you haven’t already, subscribe to Win Daily Sports on YouTube and at the Apple Store and check out all the content at windailysports.com. It’s also important to be in Discord Wednesday night as weather may be a factor in the final touches of your PGA Championship lineups.

4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

Our comprehensive PGA DFS picks and analysis is back this week, helping you construct some winning teams for the AT&T Byron Nelson at a new PGA tour stop.

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full, strong field of 156 golfers
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
First year at new course
The course: TPC Craig Ranch (McKinney, TX)
- Par 72: 7,468 yards
- Bentgrass greens
- Rowlett Creek runs through course, forcing layups and risk/reward shots
- Birdie-fest expected, but no course history for PGA means some could struggle
- Not many short par 3s (3/4 are 215+ yards), six par 4s over 450 yards
Decent weather expected and the wind doesn’t look like a huge issue so far
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Approach, SG: Off the Tee, Birdie or Better %, SG: Putting (Bentgrass), Par 4: (450-500), Proximity (175-200 & 200+)

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Pricing is pretty tight this week, so finding value is going to be important – but with Dustin Johnson’s withdrawal we are left with just two golfers in the elite $11K range. Bryson’s form and his putting stats make him a little better choice than Rahm, but it was a very bizarre week for the reigning U.S. Open champ. Length is a significant advantage this week and we know Bryson has that in spades.

Jon Rahm (DK $11,000) – Rahm’s overall game (with an emphasis on tee game and putting) make him an obvious favorite this week, and your exposure will most likely be dictated by what value range you settle on with the rest of your builds. The missed cut at the Wells Fargo will keep some folks off him, but he’s still notched seven top 10 finishes in his last 10 tournaments.

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,700) – The streak of events without a missed cut ended abruptly last week, but it’s a home game for Willie Z, who said he’s been playing here for half his life. I expect a huge bounce back for him and I really like his game off the tee and on the greens. Zalatoris has excellent metrics in the focus stat categories and is on the short list of players in this field that rank (over the last 36 rounds) inside the top 25 of both key proximity ranges 175-200 (fourth) and 200-plus (21st).

Matthew Fitzpatrick (DK $9,500) – I almost always have some shares of Fitzpatrick in PGA DFS, and while he’s okay tee-to-green, he really excels on the greens – which could be a huge factor on a course where guys will need to get hot with the flat stick to win. I tend to go heavier on Fitzy ownership when he’s playing Florida venues, but there’s no reason to think his debut win couldn’t come n Dallas. He’ll be a staple of my GPPs, especially the lineups where I fade that pricey $10-11K+ range.

Also consider: Jordan Spieth, Hideki Matsuyama (GPP), Daniel Berger (GPP), Brooks Koepka (GPP)

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Scottie Scheffler (DK $9,400) – Just like his buddy Will, Scheffler is on home turf looking for another Top 10 finish – something he’s been searching for since February when he notched a solo fifth at the WGC-Workday. He struggled on the greens at the Valspar, but his T2G game is solid and the price is fair.

Marc Leishman (DK $9,200) – It’s easy to forget about Leishman if you didn’t watch his win at the Zurich Classic alongside fellow Aussie Cameron Smith, because he hasn’t played in a standard PGA Tour event since the Masters, when he finished T5. A fine GPP play but far from safe since he missed the cut at both the Players and API.

Sergio Garcia (DK $9,000) – His numbers putting on Bentgrass are pretty atrocious, but as Joel and Sia mentioned in the breakdown, a hot putter could have him holding a trophy come Sunday. I won’t go overboard in GPPs and will probably leave him off my single-entry builds but staying ahead of the field makes sense for his upside.

Si Woo Kim (DK $8,800) – He’s 35-1 to win the tournament outright, and I agree with Joel and Sia that it’s a good price. I like Kim for basically all formats this week as he’s shown some consistency since a string of missed cuts around February (MC at Farmers, AT&T Pebble Beach, Genesis, API). Ownership shouldn’t get too high, and he checks most of the boxes this week.

Luke List (DK $8,400) – Like Garcia, List’s biggest unknown from week-to-week is his putting, so there’s plenty of risk in rostering him. The T6 at the Wells Fargo points to a start of one of the hot stretches he’s known for, so I’ll have plenty of shares in GPPs and will consider him for single-entry.

Charl Schwartzel (DK $8,100) – I’ve been writing up Schwartzel for a few weeks in a row now (since his inclusion in my Masters picks, when he finished T26), and while I’m not quite as high on him to win outright as Sia and Joel (he’s 55-1), I think he’s a solid bet for a Top 25 and there’s nothing to hate about his game right now.

Talor Gooch (DK $7,900) – Gooch’s irons have been on fire over the last few tournaments he’s played, and while his putting had been bad the week he missed the cut at the Valspar, he bounced back win a T26 at the Well Fargo and seems poised for a solid finish this week in Texas. I like the price and the Top 15 upside.

Also consider: Sam Burns, Ryan Palmer, Keith Mitchell, Carlos Ortiz (GPP), Russell Knox

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Camilo Villegas (DK $7,500) – Don’t look now, but in Villegas’s quest to regain his tour card, he’s put together four Top 25 finishes in his last five tournaments, including a T8 at the Honda Classic and T11 at the recent Valspar Championship. He’s striking and putting it well, and while he did withdraw form the Wells Fargo, that may just have been to prepare for this tournament on a course where he felt he might have an advantage.

Update: Villegas has withdrawn from the tournament.

Brandt Snedeker (DK $7,400) – Sneds heads into the week in solid form, and the veteran grinder with the signature pop-stroke putter has made four of his past five cuts, including a T6 at the Valero and a T11 at the Valspar. Normally his ball-striking is horrendous, but he’s notched positive strokes T2G in three consecutive starts and he’s a birdie-maker – especially on Bentgrass. I normally don’t look his way on courses that require elite SG: BS numbers, but this week he fits the bill.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,300) – I like long hitters who can make lots of birdies, and Kizzire (though not the best on approach or with his irons) fills out that mold. When there’s little talk about hard-to-hit fairways and punishing rough, that’s my cue to include Kizzire in my player pool. His last impressive finish was T9 at the Valero Texas Open, but I’m counting on a Top 25 this week from the 6-foot-5 tour veteran.

James Hahn (DK $7,100) – This price range isn’t filled with too many sure things, and Hahn is far from a cash game play considering his three straight MCs. But it’s possible he’ still recovering from a rib injury and the week he feels better might be the week he starts a stretch of made cuts and decent finishes. Hahn is always a guy I look to for value in GPPs, and the fact that he finished second in a Korn Ferry championship on this golf course in 2012 means it’s a great place to get on the good foot and retrieve some of the confidence that’s essential to his game.

Wyndham Clark (DK $7,000) – I’m not the only one who think Clark is a solid play at the Byron Nelson this week, but there’s plenty of reason to think he’ll still stay under the radar as a fine GPP play. Clark is insanely long off the tee and is just the kind of golfer who can get hot on a course where there’s no real history to speak of. Giddyup!

Andrew Putnam (DK $6,700) – He’s a putting demon on Bentgrass, and nobody is going to be on him this week. He’s one of about five or six players under $7K who I wouldn’t play in over 10% of GPPs, but who you can comfortably roster in the 5-10% range and not risk tanking too many lineups.

Chesson Hadley (DK $6,700) – There’s been plenty of chatter about the $7,000-7,500 guys including Vincent Whaley, Patrick Rodgers (after that scorching Thursday-Friday last week) and even Jhonattan Vegas, who everybody but me seems to be on this week, but Hadley seems to be the forgotten man in a value range that could be crucial if you’re rostering guys like DeChambeau and Rahm.

More value golfers to consider: Doug Ghim, Sepp Straka, Jhonattan Vegas, Scott Piercy, Patrick Rodgers, Vincent Whaley, Brice Garnett, Josh Teator, Bronson Burgoon (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Beau Hossler (DK $6,500) – Hossler is a pretty good putter (T31 in SG:P heading into last week), and he’s an even better putter on Bentgrass, where he’s gained .458 strokes on average over his past 69 rounds. It’s a tough price range this week but Hossler could find his way into some of my GPPs.

Sung Kang (DK $6,500) – TPC Craig Ranch is his home course (he’s a member), and he actually won the Byron Nelson at its old venue. Kang also loves Bentgrass, where he gains over a half stroke on average. There are wore narratives to hang your hat on.

Kristoffer Ventura (DK $6,400) – I’m not certain just how popular he’ll get this week, but I really love Ventura as a punt play in this severely discounted price range. He’s one of the best putters around and some projections have him squarely in the Top 50 this week – which means he’s a perfect final piece for all kinds of roster builds.

Additional GPP punts: ~~Tyler McCumber (GPP)~~, Mark Hubbard (GPP)

4 years ago 0 comments

PGA

AT&T Byron Nelson: Initial Picks

Sia 4 years ago

written by Sia

The PGA Tour has one last stop before its next major and that stop is in Texas at the AT&T Byron Nelson. The 152 player field should be able to attack this golf course as there doesn’t appear to be much by way of trouble and/or hazards. This is the first time the AT&T Byron Nelson will be played at Craig Ranch (7500 yard Par 72), and therefore, you can ignore course history. You’ll want to focus on OTT and APP and PUTT. I rank APP just above OTT in this one with PUTT being a distant third place. More on the SG metrics and specific proximities on the Win Daily Sports PGA Livestream tonight at 8:00 EST.

Jordan Spieth (10700) – He’s one of many guys I like that is from the area and he’s the best player T2G in this field. I like Bryson and Rahm in this range as well, but if I can only pick one golfer, it’s going to be Jordan.

Will Zalatoris (9700) – Coming off a missed cut but that’s no reason to pivot. Zalatoris grades out 1^st on APP last 36 rounds and while his OTT game has been somewhat average, his overall ball striking is certainly elite. Add to that he’s playing at home and is very familiar with this course.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (9500) – An elite player that remains under the radar. He’s 9^th OTT last 36 rounds but 1^st OTT last 12 rounds. He grades out as the number one player in the 450-500 yard range. His long irons sometimes give him issues so that could spell trouble on APP, but I expect the best putter in this field to make up for it on the greens.

Ryan Palmer (9100) – Palmer has been hot this year but has cooled off a bit as of late. He lives 40 minutes north of this course and has played it at least “a couple dozen times” and holds the course record here (61). He’s 11^th in my model and I think he has the upside to compete here late Sunday afternoon.

Luke List (8400) – He’s 11^th in the field T2G over last 12 rounds and 6^th OTT in the last 36 rounds. He gained across all categories last week at the Wells Fargo. His putter can really get him in trouble and therefore I like him better as a GPP play as opposed to cash.

Charl Schwartzl (8100) – He’s been very good for a few tournaments in a row now. He was 3^rd in the field T2G last week and he’s within the Top 10 in this field T2G over the last 12 rounds. This feels like a good value play in the low 8k range.

Russell Knox (7700) – He was bad earlier this year but over the last 12 rounds he’s started to find his old form and that has resulted in being Top 15 T2G over the last 12 rounds. He was 2^nd in the field T2G at Wells Fargo, but lost a good amount PUTT.

Doug Ghim (7500) – This tournament could turn into a putting contest and that’s not exactly where Ghim would want to be, but his T2G game is elite and in a GPP he will give you great value if he’s even decent with the putter.

Jhonnatan Vegas (7200) – number 1 in the field OTT at Wells Fargo (gained over 7 strokes total OTT). He lost most of his strokes ARG which shouldn’t hurt him too badly at the AT&T Byron Nelson. He’s 4^th OTT last 36 rounds.

Roger Sloan (6900) – The 6k range is tough this week and there aren’t a lot of great options. Sloan is someone I’m willing to the roll the dice with because he’s been solid with the ball striking lately. He’s typically giving up a lot of strokes ARG but if his APP is on point (which it usually is), he shouldn’t need to worry too much about that. He’ll need to find the putter.

Chris Baker (6000) – Baker doesn’t have a lot of rounds under his belt, but his ball striking has been good enough in limited work for me to include him in this article. He’s obviously a GPP dart at this minimum price, but if you are trying to stack elite players you may be able to find some value in the abyss.

Secret Weapon (less than 7k/less than 5% owned) – See you in Discord. Current SW record is 34-7.

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4 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports PGA

PGA DFS Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

jason mezrahi 4 years ago

written by jason mezrahi

We’re once again bringing you some PGA DFS picks and analysis, looking for some winning teams at The Wells Fargo Championship at classic Quail Hollow!

PGA DFS Course Notes:

Full field of 156 golfers STACKED with talent
36-hole Cut: Top 65 and ties play the weekend
Canceled in 2020
2019 champion: Max Homa (-15 over Joel Dahmen at -12)
The course: Quail Hollow Club (Charlotte, NC)
- Par 71: 7,521+ yards – the longest Par 71 on the PGA Tour
- Bermuda greens (Champion G12 Bermudagrass with Poa trivialis overseed)
- Beast of a long, tough track with final three holes dubbed “The Green Mile”
- Bomb-and-gouge more in play this week, as longer hitters and good drivers seem to prevail
Rain in forecast before tourney days but mostly sunny skies during competition
Late Friday 10 mph gusts expected, which is common – but wind only getting to 13-15 on the Sunday forecast – so keep early Friday and Sunday in mind for showdowns
Focus Stat Categories: Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, SG: Approach, SG: Putting (Bermuda), Proximity 175-200 & 200+, Bogey Avoidance

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Justin Thomas (DK $11,500) – JT is the most expensive golfer this week as he returns to Quail Hollow and the site of his 2017 PGA Championship win. The conditions won’t be quite as tough now as they were then, but Thomas should be able to contend if he can get even a little hot with the putter. Most of his recent “struggles” can be tied directly to a lot of really good putts that just didn’t fall in – a result that should progress toward better SG: P numbers this week.

Bryson DeChambeau (DK $11,200) – Playing Bryson in DFS sometimes feels like mashing the “X” button for the power boost in the Tiger Woods video games, but if there was a week to take advantage of his obscene length, this is it. He’s No. 1 overall on my mixed model ranking and one of the course comps is Winged Foot, where he won the U.S. Open in 2020. He’s a bomb-and-gouge guy on a course that welcomes it and the Par 5 scoring (he’s tops in the field) has to be good. Giddyup!

Jon Rahm (DK $10,800) – Rory shows up ahead of JT at the No. 2 overall spot o my model, but Rahm seems a great fit for this golf course, even though he’s only played here in the 2017 PGA Championship to a unexceptional finish (made cut but ended up T58). Still – Rahm’s great off the tee and he avoids bogeys – key metrics this week that make him a fine play in all formats despite his projected popularity.

Also consider: Rory McIlroy (GPP), Viktor Hovland (Cash), Patrick Cantlay (GPP), Tony Finau

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Will Zalatoris (DK $9,400) – I don’t know if there’s a really a time when it’s safe to jump off the Zalatoris train, even with his T42 finish at the RBC Heritage on a small-greens course that didn’t play to his strengths of power and precision. He’s a prolific cut-maker and a generational type of talent who drives the ball fairly well, so he makes sense as a GPP pivot from guys like Finau and Conners.

Joaquin Niemann (DK $9,100) – Normally, I let the field get excited about Niemann and fade the guy, but his consistent play recently has me getting a lot more exposure. He doesn’t excel in any one of our focus stats categories this week, but he’s solid enough across the board (22nd in SG: APP and 25th in SG: OTT on difficult scoring courses) to end up as my No. 12 golfer in the model.

Max Homa (DK $9,100) – As good as Homa has been the past few weeks, he’s going to be hard to fade on a course where he’s already won. There don’t seem to be any flaws in his game right now and he’s No. 4 in my overall model in an absolutely stacked field – the highest I’ve seen him in several weeks.

Sungjae Im (DK $8,800) – Im is finding his ball-striking groove and appears a lot more comfortable with the putter recently. He checks all the boxes this week in the key metrics and makes for an excellent GPP play that doesn’t offer too much risk and plenty of Top 15 upside.

Cameron Tringale (DK $8,400) – He’s the same price as last week but the field is tougher, so you’d think his ownership should drop – but he might still end up like 18-20% owned. He might be okay for cash games, but I’d rather spend the extra few hundred and take Im in GPPs, especially since Tringale hasn’t found much success here since 2016.

Emiliano Grillo (DK $8,100) – I’ll go back to the well with Grillo and take the $200 discount from last week. He’s proven he belongs on courses that emphasize tee-to-green numbers over putting (he has a T9 here in 2018), and the days of him performing only in poor fields are gone. Grillo is a risky play because he tends to three-putt a little more than we’d like, but I like him for some GPPs.

Lucas Glover (DK $7,800) – After a rough start to 2020, Glover enters the Wells Fargo playing solid golf and sporting a still-affordable price tag under $8K. He’s done well here over the years with five career top 10s, including a win here in 2011.

Joel Dahmen (DK $7,600) – Dahmen won the Corales Puntacana in March after three straight missed cuts (and six of seven with the lone made cut coming at the AT&T), and he finished second here in 2019, three strokes behind Homa. The “A game” can come and go pretty quickly with this guy, so he’s best used as a last piece in balanced GPP builds.

Also consider: Corey Conners (cash), Abraham Ancer (GPP), Brian Harman (Cash), Jason Day (GPP), Bubba Watson, Shane Lowry, Stewart Cink, Talor Gooch

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Kyle Stanley (DK $7,100) – Last week we discussed his tee ball game, and this week that’s a huge focus stat for us. I’m not as in love with Matt Jones and Lanto Griffin this week as everyone else, but Stanley’s ownership should remain low enough in GPPs to make him a worthwhile addition to the player pool. A T8 here in 2019 and T13 in 2018 add more intrigue, though he missed the cut at the 2017 PGA Championship.

Ryan Moore (DK $7,100) – Moore graded out well last week and now he’s playing to even more of his strengths, with putting being his biggest bugaboo. He’s solid OTT and if he can get a few more birdies to drop, makes for a great value play. The $7,000 to $7,100 range has a bunch of guys I like, so I foresee a few not-quite scrubs-and-stars GPP builds where I roster four guys like Moore, Wise, Kizzire and Tom Hoge and then finish it off with a couple of $10K-11K guys. Moore got me excited with an opening 66 last week, but this week he won’t have to contend with as much wind and can spray it a bit more off the tee. I’m in.

Aaron Wise (DK $7,100) – Wise has compelling Top 10 upside this week on a course where he’s had lots of success in his young career (T2 in 2018 with Nick Watney; T18 in 2019). We can probably throw out the finish at the RBC Heritage and look at the balance of his recent play to see that he’s trending in the right direction. Nick mentioned on the breakdown video that he might end up around 10% ownership, but I’m fine using him in single-entry and the 20-max dip at around 20-25% to stay ahead of the field.

Patton Kizzire (DK $7,000) – I think I was one week off on Kizzire, who I always seem to have plenty of exposure to in GPPs on bomb-and-gouge courses. Last week I added him (not so confidently) to my player pool at the last minute before lock and his middle two rounds (75-76) destroyed any hope for a solid finish. This week, the layout should give him more of an advantage.

Phil Mickelson (DK $6,900) – He’s way too cheap (and still pretty long off the tee) for where he ends up in my mixed model rankings this week (No. 39 overall). A polarizing figure who still commands plenty of ownership among his fans, Phil is a dynamic player who makes it hard to go all in. If I can land on about 7.5-10% in GPPs and be slightly ahead of the field, I’ll be happy.

Luke List (DK $6,800) – Four missed cuts in his last six events will keep his ownership low, and I like the course fit for List at an event where he’s had a Top 10. If it clicks for him this week, he could be the only sub-$7K player in contention, so I’m fine staking my exposure at 10-15% ownership in GPPs.

Sam Ryder (DK $6,700) – Another golfer I like this week that could fly well under the radar, Ryder is popping on my models and makes for a high-risk play considering he’s missed his last two cuts. He’s probably the lowest priced golfer that I’ll consider at 10+ percent exposure in my GPPs.

More value golfers to consider: Lanto Griffin, Carlos Ortiz, Matt Jones (GPP), Sebastian Munoz, Erik van Rooyen (GPP), Charl Schwartzel, Tom Hoge (GPP), Adam Schenk, Wyndham Clark, Chez Reavie (GPP)

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

Patrick Rodgers (DK $6,500) – Rodgers isn’t the best in approach metrics, but he’s really solid off the tee, so he could be a decent litmus test for which category wins out this week. I liked him quite a bit when I started looking for longshots, and I do even more now that Stick’s Picks endorsed him, but he’s definitely GPP only.

Bronson Burgoon (DK $6,500) – I think Burgoon could be ready for a breakthrough at Quail Hollow despite the lack of success in the past. If you need a punt play who’s striking the ball well (T13 last week at the Valspar), he could be your guy.

Hank Lebioda (DK $6,300) – “Hammerin” Hank Lebioda also finished T13 at the Valspar, and Sia mentioned him in the breakdown as a possible punt play. At just $6,300 and coming off his best finish in 2021, he’s worth a look.

Additional GPP punts: Richy Werenski, Henrik Norlander, Cameron Percy, Joseph Bramlett, Will Gordon, Seung-Yul Noh

4 years ago 0 comments

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PGA DFS Picks

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

PGA DFS Course Notes:

The Picks:

Elite PGA DFS (DK $9,500 and up):

Mid-Range PGA DFS (DK $7,600 to $9,400):

Value PGA DFS (DK $6,600 to 7,500):

Longshot Punts PGA DFS (DK $6,500 and under):

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