...
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
 
DFS & Sports Betting Tools, Exclusive Content, and Expert Chat
 
Home / Packers
Tag:

Packers

Week 1 of the NFL season continues with a bang as the Green Bay Packers face off against the Philadelphia Eagles at the Arena Corinthians in São Paulo, Brazil. In this article, I’ll share my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article. 

Green Bay Packers

Running Back

In 2023, the Philadelphia Eagles were one of the better teams against the run. They ranked top 10 in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. They did, however, surrender 19.8 DK points per game to the position as a whole.

The Green Bay Packers are entering this game without their top two RBs from last season. Aaron Jones was lost to division rival Minnesota, and AJ Dillon is out for the season because of a neck injury. In their place is newly acquired Josh Jacobs. The former Raider is coming off of a quad injury that saw him miss the final four games of the season. With an inexperienced backup, Jacobs should see a heavy workload to start off the season. With Jacobs being no stranger to having a workload, having played at least 63% of snaps every game last season, he is very much in play on Friday.

Jacobs’ backup for Friday looks to be rookie MarShawn Lloyd. Lloyd isn’t a RB that will blow anyone away, but he is a solid back. He averaged 5.6 yards per carry during his three-year CFB career, including averaging 7.1 his final year at USC. He is dealing with a hamstring injury that has limited his ability to practice, so I would not go heavy on Lloyd for showdowns. The RB3 for GB is Emanuel Wilson, who is in his second year in the league. I don’t want Wilson to see much of the field, if any, unless one of the two backs ahead of him has to leave the game.

Tier 1: Josh Jacobs

Tier 2: MarShawn Lloyd 

Wide Receiver

The Eagles were not the best against pass last season. They gave up the second-most receiving yards and touchdowns to opposing teams. They also gave up 45.8 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, which was the most by any team last season.

Green Bay has three WRs that can make or break this slate. The WR that has the potential to cause the most damage to this Eagles secondary is Jayden Reed. Reed had a solid rookie season, finishing with 64 receptions for 793 yards and eight touchdowns. Reed should matchup against rookie Quinyon Mitchell, who was the Eagles 1st round pick from Toledo. The second WR that can cause some damage to the Eagle secondary is Christian Watson. During the offseason, Watson worked with the University of Wisconsin to help find ways to prevent hamstring injuries, and he has said it will help him avoid the injuries he has dealt with in his career. While I like him for Friday’s showdown, I prefer Reed because Watson should see a lot of Darius Slay lined up in front of him.

I mentioned Green Bay had three WRs that can make or break a slate. The third player I was referring to is Romeo Doubs. Doubs had a solid sophomore campaign, filling in as the WR2, with Watson missing half the season. I like Doubs this season, but I am hesitant to use him on Friday because he is dealing with a hand injury. He is a player I will use only if I am playing a lot of entries.

Tier 1: Jayden Reed, Christian Watson

Tier 2: Romeo Doubts, Dontayvion Wicks

Punts:

Tight End

The Eagles gave up the tenth most receptions to TEs last season. But they did manage to prevent TEs from having big gains on those receptions, as they ranked 20th in yards given up to TEs. They gave up 12.5 points to TE’s, which was 15th most in the NFL.

The Packers have two TEs who averaged over 38 snaps per game. My favorite of the two is Luke Musgrave. Musgrave, despite missing six games last season still had more targets than Tucker Kraft. In his 13 appearances last season (including playoffs), he averaged four targets with a season high of eight targets. He should draw Reed Blakenship in coverage, who is solid in coverage, but the lack of speed can free up some space for Musgrave.

I wouldn’t force Tucker Kraft into any lineups, but his DK price of $2800 can be helpful when building with some of the bigger names on the slate. Despite being the backup, Kraft still averaged 38 snaps last season, which gives him more opportunities to have some targets.

Tier 1: Luke Musgrave

Tier 2: Tucker Kraft

Punt/Fadeable:

Philadelphia Eagles

Running Back

The Packers are a good team to attack with running backs. Last season they gave up 22.6 DK to running backs, which was the 13th most in the NFL.

The Eagles added a great running back in the offseason, Saquon Barkley. Barkley is the clear number one back and might be the only running back I use from the Eagles on Friday. Barkley does it all; he can run (5K+ career rushing yards) and he can catch (2K+ receiving yards). I was a bit skeptical about him joining Philadelphia because of the famous push that has hurt Sanders and Swift in the past. But according to people who follow the team closer than me, the push should see a decrease in usage. That bodes well for Barkley, who will have opportunities to score against the Packers if the Eagles get closer to the end zone.

The other two running backs on the Eagles are Gainwell and Shipley. Both are punt plays because I can’t see them taking too much work away from Barkley. Gainwell has a better understanding of the offense since he has been with the team since 2021, but I like punting Shipley. I have watched a lot of Shipley the past few years since I started writing the CFB article, and I think he can succeed in the NFL.

Tier 1: Saquon Barkley 

Tier 2: Will Shipley (Punt Play)

Wide Receiver

The Packers did a good job last season preventing big fantasy games from opposing wide receivers. They gave up 32.6 DK which was the 22nd most in the league.

The Eagles have a real argument to have the best WR duo in all of football. AJ Brown and DeVonta Smith are two of the better WRs and are going to cause a lot of problems for secondaries all season. For this showdown, I am giving the edge to Smith. The 2K savings in his price is a nice bonus for being able to use one of the better wideouts. Smith is coming off of an 81 reception, 1066 yards, and seven touchdown season. Smith should draw Eric Stokes from the Packers, who has experience covering Smith as they played twice while in college. While I like Stokes, injuries have kept him from reaching his potential, and I can’t see him being able to keep up with Smith.

AJ Brown might be a better Eagle receiver, but he should draw the attention of the Packers top CB, Jaire Alexander. This will be a great matchup to watch the entire time. Despite having the tough matchup, Brown is still very much in play, as he should get the better of Alexander at times.

Tier 1: DeVonta Smith, AJ Brown

Tier 2: Jahan Dotson

Tight End

The Green Bay Packers gave up the 18th most DK points (11.8) to opposing tight ends. They gave up the 5th least receptions to tight ends, but they did allow tight ends to average 12.1 yards per catch.

On the Eagles, there is only one tight end I really want any exposure on my team, and that’s Goedert. Goedert played in at least 77% of snaps in all but one game last season. With his high number of snaps played, Goedert was able to average six targets per game. Like I said, he is the only Eagle tight end I am looking at, and in terms of pass catchers, I would put him behind their two stud WRs.
Tier 1: Dallas Goedert

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown 

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like a quarterback or a workhorse running back. You need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top. 

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. 

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Jordan Love, Saquon Barkley

FanDuel MVP Tier 2: Jalen Hurts

FanDuel MVP Tier 3: DeVonta Smith, Jayden Reed 

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Jordan Love, Saquon Barkley

DraftKings CPT Tier 2: Jalen Hurts, DeVonta Smith, Jayden Reed

DraftKings CPT Tier 3: AJ Brown, Josh Jacobs

DraftKings CPT Punt: Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Dallas Goedert

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

  • Jordan Love
  • Saquon Barkley
  • Jalen Hurts
  • DeVonta Smith
  • Jayden Reed
  • Josh Jacobs
  • Dallas Goedert
  • Christian Watson
  • Romeo Doubs
  • Luke Musgrave

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Tucker Kraft
  • Jake Elliot
  • Brayden Narveson
  • Dontayvion Wicks
  • Jahan Dotson
  • MarShawn Lloyd
  • Eagles D
  • Packers D

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play. More than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

  • Will Shipley
  • Kenneth Gainwell
  • Emmanuel Wilson

Best Rules for the slate:

  • Play at least one QB
  • Play one of GB’s WRs if you have Love
  • Play at least one of Brown or Smith if you have Hurts
  • Play one of Barkley or Hurts
  • Both Kickers are in play

Favorite prop for the game: Saquon Barkley Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-106 FD)

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Thursday night showdown time ladies and gentlemen! Be sure to hop in discord to get all of the updated information leading up to the kick with all of the big name players missing time, and potential value options available to us inwhat should be a fast paced contest. Take a look at our custom projections model to see where we are going to look for our flex plays. So without further ado, here is your WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28.

If you were here with us last season you may remember this disclaimer. Do not waste half of your budget or double down on showdown because you had a bad main slate. Unless you get incredibly lucky your best-case scenario is a chopped pot with a ton of people. Just throw a few lineups in and have fun while you have a little sweat going. If you go all in on a showdown and tilt because it didn’t work out, it is on you.

Vegas Script: Total: 51, Cardinals -6

This is an interesting game, especially for a Thursday. With a 51 total and two of the higher octane offenses in the league, you would think that fitting your studs would be tough. But, with Davante Adams and Allen Lazard out for covid related reasons and Deandre Hopkins not practicing any this week and being a true game-time decision, we have a lot of value options available to us this evening. The -6 feels a little high but to be honest that may be some bias on my end being a Packers fan. They should be able to keep up with the Cardinals in this contest even with Adams being out, but we shall see.

Captains:

Chalk: Kyler Murray, $18,000:

Week in and Week out Kyler Murray is the safest QB on the board, providing a floor/ceiling combination that is one of the best in the league, so it is no surprise that he will be the highest owned captain on the evening. Green Bay has only played against two of what I would consider as “running quarterbacks” in Justin Fields and Taylor Heinicke. Justin rushed six times for 43 yards and Taylor when 10 for 95 on the ground. Murray is better than both in that regard so a day where he exceeds 100 yards would not be a shock to me in any regard.

Pivot: Aaron Jones, $13,500 :

While it is very fair to target the Green Bay receivers in a contest where Davante Adams and Allen Lazard are out due to Covid protocols Rodgers has shown a habit to lean more heavily on players that he is comfortable with over-targeting “no named” guys who are filling in. I am expecting Jones to be the focal point of this offense and be the highest scoring Packer in all likelihood. Week four of last season Davante Adams and Adam Lazard missed, in the same way, they will tonight and two things happened, Robert Tonyan caught 6 of 6 targets for 98 yards and 3 TD’s, and Aaron Jones and Jamal Williams spent most of the day running routes as WR’s and caught 13 of 13 targets combined for 135 yards and a touchdown with neither player exceeding 55% on the snap share. I love Dillon and what he can do, but Jones is the better route runner and pass-catching back of the two, so I do not think Green Bay can win without Jones seeing an 80% or more snap share this evening.

Contrarian #1: Aaron Rodgers, $17,100 :

There aren’t many times you see Aaron as a contrarian play but with Kyler Murray only slightly cheaper and the lack of his top two pass-catching options out, I do not think many people are going to go this route. We can use that to our advantage as Rodgers was in this same scenario last season and he went nuts, throwing for 324 yards and four touchdowns against the Falcons in week four with no Davante or Lazard. Sure, there has been a little regression but it always seems like, on the days where people doubt A-Rod, he goes out there and has a huge day just to prove people wrong. One thing not being considered as well is that Rodgers should have more time to throw than you would expect tonight with JJ Watt out and defensive tackle Rashard Lawrence expected to miss. If Aaron gets time, there is no defensive back in the league that can stop him from hitting his targets.

Contrarian #2: Robert Tonyan, $6,900 :

The only reason people even targeted Tonyan in seasonal this year was due to this same scenario last season. In a game with no Adams or Lazard, Robert caught 6 of 6 for 98 yards and three scores against a hapless Falcons team. The Cards are much better defensively than the Falcons but they are historically bad against tight ends (they are #1 in DVOA in 2021, but they have not played a single competent TE this season), and as I just mentioned, they are going to have a depleted pass rush so plays should have time to develop. I doubt that I am the only person to see the parallels to last year but I think we can get Tonyan at a pretty nice ownership tonight with that red #1 next to his name tonight.

Contrarian#3: Christian Kirk, $10,500:

Replace with D-Hop if he suits up. If Nuk sits, Kirk should be in line for a huge night with Green Bay’s defense becoming one of the worst in the league overnight when Jaire Alexander went down this season. The entire scheme falls apart when he is not on the field and the coaching staff in Wisconsin has shown themselves incapable of making adjustments when injuries happen on the defensive side. They sit firmly near the bottom against #1 and 2 receivers in terms of DVOA. Kirk is second in the team in catches, targets, catch rate, and TD’s when Hopkins is on the field while only playing 66% of the snaps. With the 21% target share potentially being up for grabs and the big play ability of Kirk his ceiling is immense today.

WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 Flex Plays:

  1. Kyler Murray
  2. Aaron Jones
  3. Aaron Rodgers
  4. Robert Tonyan
  5. Christian Kirk
  6. AJ Green
  7. Randall Cobb
  8. Zach Ertz
  9. Amari Rodgers
  10. Rondale Moore
  11. Chase Edmonds
  12. Marquez Valdez-Scantling (if he plays)
  13. Malik Taylor (back from Covid)
  14. James Connor
  15. Equanamious St. Brown

Kickers and defenses:

With the amount of value we have in this contest tonight I truly do not see a need to target the defenses or the kickers for some cheap points. There should be a plethora of cheap options in this 51 total game that have the ability to have a big night. If you are running a one off game script where you think the Packers struggle without Adams you can use the Cardinals defense, but do so sparingly please.

It is time folks and I hope that WDS Stoweby’s Showdown Packers at Cardinals 10.28 helps you towards your goals. It is time to start digging into DFS and make sure that we have our processes in place for a successful 2021 NFL campaign. If you have any questions about the article or anything else, I will be available in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

The NFL DFS season continues with the Monday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the final Week 2 NFL DFS contests!

NOTE: For a refresher on showdown general rules and strategy, see my first TNF showdown article of 2021.

Let’s get to the game!

Week 2 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 2 NFL DFS Chalk: Aaron Rodgers (FD $16,000, DK $17,100)

Pivot: Davante Adams (FD $15,000, DK $17,700)

Contrarian #1: Aaron Jones (FD $12,500, DK $15,600)

Contrarian #2: Jared Goff (FD $14,500, DK $15,000)

Contrarian #3: T.J. Hockenson (FD $11,000, DK $14,400)

I have to believe that despite Davante Adams being the most expensive player on the slate and a poor week 1 performance from three-time NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers, the Packers QB will be the chalk for showdown captain. The Lions secondary is now without Jeff Okudah (again) and there’s a lot of new faces on a team that in Week 1 only had to contend with Jimmy Garoppolo. Rodgers is poised for a bounceback game at home on prime time — his favorite time to shine. There’s probably enough value in the Lions secondary receiving options to warrant using Rodgers at captain and just finding ways to fit Adams and some bargain pieces.

Packers notes: Rostering Rodgers/Adams somewhere in your six slots is the priority here, and Randall Cobb ($3K captain/$2K flex) offers perhaps the best value among the other skills positions for the Packers. Marques Valdez-Scantling saw eight targets in Week 1, but I’m still more interested in Aaron Jones and Robert Tonyan as the most important offensive weapons not named “Davante.” Tonyan hasn’t traditionally done as much work between the 20s and has done most of his eating in the red zone, but a new game plan for confusing a relatively weak nickel/LB corps means he could see a few extra check-down targets this week. I’d also expect the touches and targets for Jones to at least double what he saw in Week 1 (five carries, two targets), but the new Lions base defensive scheme could be vulnerable to a big day from Jones, since there’s just three down linemen, two outside linebackers and two off-ball, “inside” LBs — more of a 5-2 front with the two edge players standing up instead of having hands in the dirt. For that reason, we could see A.J. Dillon used more this week, but he only played 16 snaps in Week 1.

Lions notes: If we ignore the running games altogether, there’s a clear path to getting Jared Goff with T.J. Hockenson and a value WR along with Rodgers/Adams if we take a shot on Cobb at captain, but that’s more of a longshot build. With the injuries to Lions WRs Tyrell Williams (out, concussion) and Khalif Raymond (thigh, questionable) the smart move might be to eliminate the always risky Goff from our builds and focus on Hockenson along with cheap WRs Quintez Cephus (six targets in Week 1) and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown (3-50-0 on four targets in his debut). D’Andre Swift is perhaps the most dynamic player in the Lions offense and was a target monster in Week 1` (8-65-1 on 11 targets to go along with 39 rushing yards), but he’s questionable despite being expected to suit up in the contest. Former Packer RB Jamaal Williams had solid Week 1 as well, finishing with 8-56-0 receiving on nine targets and racking up 54 rushing yards on just nine carries. If the Packers jump out to a big lead like the 49ers did in Week 1, we could see similar totals in the MNF game script.

Week 2 NFL DFS Final thoughts (and some DOs and DON’Ts)

Remember to build your team based on a Week 1 NFL DFS narrative that makes sense.

DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together

DON’T: Go too heavy on the DSTs, which are both weak and don’t offer much upside in a game that should exceed the 49-point game total.

DO: Use the projected team totals to shade one way or the other with your selections.

DON’T: Play too much Jared Goff. He’s not that good, and we know this.

Now that we’ve established some Week 1 NFL DFS narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):

  1. Aaron Rodgers
  2. Davante Adams
  3. T.J. Hockenson
  4. Aaron Jones
  5. D’Andre Swift
  6. Jared Goff
  7. Robert Tonyan
  8. Jamaal Williams
  9. Randall Cobb
  10. Quintez Cephus
  11. Amon-Ra St. Brown
  12. Marques Valdez-Scantling
  13. A.J. Dillon
  14. Packers DST
  15. Allen Lazard
  16. Mason Crosby
  17. Trinity Benson
  18. Austin Seibert
  19. Lions DST
  20. Marcedes Lewis
  21. Daniel Fells
  22. Kylin Hill

Don’t forget to read the rest of WinDaily’s excellent football articles this week as you prep for Week1 action!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Good evening everyone, once again the NFL has bestowed upon us a random day of the week to enjoy some NFL action and they have given us a couple of contests that are actually fantastic for GPP plays and leverage points that we can take advantage of. As always be mindful that we are going to have to keep an eye out for injury information leading up to kickoff. The NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 should be a good one allowing for a few different build types depending on the injuries.

NFL 2020 has essentially turned into the NBA when it comes to injury information. I’m not going to drivel on much longer about that, I’m going to go ahead and hop into my favorite plays for this slate. I’ll identify in what format I like each of these plays in.

With a two game slate you need to pay closer attention to script in the same way that you would with a showdown slate. Not to say you don’t with a full slate but it just moves up in my priority list and it allows me to put some lower owned plays that could separate you from the field that may not always be a good play in a full slate. Lets dig into Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19.

As always, if I name a player for cash they are GPP’s viable as well, just know I think they will have higher than usual ownership. My projected exposure is based overall between Cash and GPP

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 QB’s:

Josh Allen $7,200 (DK): (Cash*but read full explanation*)

Due to the slight decrease in price over Aaron Rodgers, the running upside, the matchup against a Swiss cheese Denver defense, and the potential chip on Buffalo’s shoulder from some statements made by an individual within the ESPN organization (I won’t expand here but it is easy to find) it doesn’t surprise me at all that Josh Allen will potentially exceed 40% in ownership in this two game slate. I will have a GPP pivot but in a lot of instances I’ll likely eat the chalk and get weird elsewhere.

The Steelers stout defense did hold him to around 19.8 DK points but there were a number of missed opportunities, and against middling defenses like the Broncos he usually goes ham for 30+ points and to this point he’s averaging 27.5 DK points in away games so his splits are slightly positive compared to his home appearances.. You can go Rodgers here if you wanted to but I really think Allen needs to be your guy in cash. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling): 35-37 DK points. My exposure, 60-70%

Drew Lock $5,000 (DK) (GPP):

As I stated above with Allen. I do not really care about the ownership. But the Bills are susceptible to big plays so I will be stacking this game from the other side with Drew Lock as my QB in small doses. Of 10 lineups I would have seven with Allen and three with Lock. He’s not a great QB by any stretch but his garbage time production is real. Last week Lock got it together and threw for 280 and four TD’s against the Panthers. The Panthers for all of their issues have shown flashes of having a decent defensive secondary.

If the Broncos screw up and turn the ball over early and get behind we can see the Broncos completely abandon the run early and watch Drew throw bombs for two and a half quarters. Expected Ownership 6-8% My projections (Ceiling): 25-28 DK points. My exposure 20-30%

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 RB’s:

Mike Davis $6,500 (DK) (Cash)

The Packers are top half in the league in basically every single QB pressure metric in the NFL and the Panthers are a little dinged up on the offensive line. Teddy Bridgewater may find himself running a little more than usual tomorrow.

There is one thing that he is going to have a problem with regardless, finding an open receiver with all of the secondary talent that the Packers have at their exposure. Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, and Safety Darnell Savage are no slouches. I’m expecting a heavy dose of Mike Davis attacking the week run defense and the short passing game. This is where the Panthers can actually get some consistent ball movement to keep this was within a decent margin.

Davis had a rough stretch where he barely exceeded 8 DK points for 5 week in a row. He finally got himself back on track against the Broncos last week with a nice 25 point outing. I’d expect him to get somewhere around 8 targets tomorrow (if not more) to go along with at least 15 carries. Expected ownership 60-65%, My Projections (Ceiling) 20-23 DK Points. My exposure 40-45%.

Aaron Jones $7,300 (DK) (Cash)

Aaron Jones is great, we all know what he brings to the table and the Panthers can’t spot anyone on the ground so no need to go further. Only concern as he is still in a 55-45% time share with Jamal Williams. If you can tolerate that, he needs to be considered in your lineups. He’s a beast. Expected Ownership 70%. My Projections (Ceiling) 25-28 DK points. My exposure 30-35% (I’m personally going underweight to avoid the usage headache but he can go nuts even in a timeshare.)

Melvin Gordon $5,200 (DK) (GPP)

If Gordon is good to go Fangio seems to be figuring out that Gordon is a better running back than Philip Lindsay. Hopefully they saw the game against the Chiefs where Gordon gashed them for 131 yards while averaging 8.7 YPC while Lindsay got 26 yards on 1.9 YPC. Gordon clearly need to be the guy.

In a negative game script which we will likely get, he is better suited being the pass catcher of the two. If people are still telling you Lindsay is the pass catching back block them now because they aren’t paying attention. Look up his stats this year. He’s caught two passes all season. Gordon will actually be a GPP pivot when I choose to leave Jones out of my roster. His ownership is a touch high, but it’s still 30% less than Jones. He also the get the same amount of work so I like the leverage it provides. Expected Ownership 40-45% My projections (Ceiling) 18-22 DK points. My Exposure 40-45%

Don’t Forget: Jamal Williams (Great low owned Aaron Jones pivot), Devin Singletary, Zach Moss

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 WR’s

Davante Adams $9,400 (DK) (Cash):

If you can afford him you play him. I don’t need to explain what he brings to the table. He’ll be high owned, with a high ceiling, and I’ll have a lot of him. Moving on.

Stefon Diggs $7,900 (DK) (Cash)

Like Adams, it’s Diggs. I shouldn’t need to explain him at this point.

Curtis Samuel $4800 (DK) (GPP):

Please watch his injury designation closely, he came down late with a hamstring issue. He’s here for me for a GPP play for the same reason Mike Davis is. The short passing game, his roll in the running game, and the lack of CMC. I’m not going to put any projections for him because we don’t know what his deal is yet so we need to watch before we make any decisions.

Jerry Jeudy $3,900 (DK) (GPP):

I think this is gonna be Jeudy’s 2nd coming out party. He’s had an a lot of struggles with drops this year, but as you could see above where I touted Drew Lock, those passes downfield are going someone! In the event that he is matched up man against Levi Johnson, he will be able to burn him and catch more than a few deep passes.

If the Bills manage to get up two score I think we’re looking at a situation where Jeudy could get between 8-10 targets. If they connect, I can see this being his highest output game of the season. Even in situations where I don’t use Lock as my QB Jeudy will largely be the guy I run back my Bills stack with. Expected Ownership 18-20%. My Projections (Ceiling) 22-25 DK points

Don’t Forget: Cole Beasley, Gabriel Davis, Marquez Valdez-Scantling, Allen Lazard, Tim Patrick, KJ Hamler, DJ Moore, Robbie Anderson

Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19 TE’s

Robert Tonyan $4500 (DK), Noah Fant $3,800 (DK)

I’m not going to recommend any other tight ends. If you want to use a dart throw have at it but I’m not going there. Get different elsewhere in my opinion.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports NFL Week 15 Saturday Slate 12.19. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers:

Alright folks, before you take a look at any of the information that I’m about to give you be mindful of just how much can change between now and kickoff. This can not under any circumstances be a set and forget day. Additionally, I have heard news that JK Dobbins and Mark Ingram are eligible to return from the Covid-19 list BUT the information originated from Ian Rappaport and I have yet to get this information from the Ravens themselves. For those of you who do not know, I do not trust the accuracy of Ian’s reporting, he is more interested in being first than being correct.

Chalk: Benny Snell $13,200

Pivot: Chase Claypool $15,600

Contrarian #1: Gus Edwards $9,300

Contrarian #2: Robert Griffin III $12,600

Contrarian #3: Justice Hill $3,300 (If Dobbins and Ingram sit)/ Juju Smith-Shuster $14,400 (If they play)

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Notes:

Vegas: 41.5 Point total Pittsburgh: -10

This seems big to me even with all of the people missing for Baltimore. Divisional games in the AFC North are rarely blowouts and are almost always low scoring. I don’t see a game that I’m expecting the under to hit to spread out enough to make that -10 work for the Steelers.

Weather: Mid’s 30’s and minimal wind

Baltimore is a flat out mess right now and I can’t really blame Vegas for putting them as 10 point dogs in what looks to be an incredibly messy divisional matchup. In that regard I’m not surprised Benny Snell looks to be the massive chalk with the absence of James Conner. If for some reason you’re playing cash that is where I would start. I see a few different options for a pivot from the Snell chalk. First would be Chase Claypool. This guy has been an absolute monster in his first year and has seen no less than 8 targets in any of the last four games including five for 42 and a touchdown on nine targets against a healthy Ravens team in week 8 and the Ravens are much more vulnerable right now. If Mark Ingram and JK Dobbins end up confirmed out I think Gus Edwards will actually end up being the chalk but at this point we are up in the air and Gus smashed the Steelers averaging 5.4 yards per carry for 87 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries on a 32% snap share. Another option is Win Daily’s favorite guy Robert Griffin III. I’m not saying he’s Lamar Jackson but he is a capable, experienced backup that has the mobility to run the same style of offense so they won’t be sacrificing parts of their playbook when he is on the field, and if we are being honest with ourselves, there won’t be a passing drop-off from Jackson to Griffin this season. Lamar’s passing struggles have been well documented. My final play is based of people being out. If Dobbins and Ingram sit I am going to have a healthy amount Justice Hill. Reason being if Baltimore gets down big it won’t be Gus on the field, it will be Hill who is much better at catching the ball so I can run a Steelers heavy lineup and run it back with a Justin Tucker and Justice Hill for a 4-2 build on DraftKings. If every running back is a go I want to pivot over to the Pittsburg Side and take a shot on what might be a shockingly low owned Juju Smith-Shuster. No need to get in depth, Juju has largely disappointed for what was expected of him but his ceiling is MASSIVE and he might not get over 6% at captain today with all of the potential value captains.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play as well as both defenses. It’s a strange week so most of the flex plays could change on a moments notice.

Steelers: Defense, Dionte Johnson, Eric Ebron, Chris Boswell, Anthony McFarland Jr., Ben Roethlisberger

Ravens: Defense, Justin Tucker, Marquise Brown, Dez Bryant, Devin Duvernay, Miles Boykin

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 12.2 Ravens at Steelers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 12 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers:

Chalk: Aaron Jones $15,600

Pivot: Aaron Rodgers $17,100

Contrarian #1: Davante Adams $18,900

Contrarian #2: David Montgomery $13,200

Contrarian #3: Allen Robinson $15,000

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Packers: -8

Weather: Nothing major to report, 10-15mph wind, mid 30’s temp

Vegas is telling us threat they are expecting the Packers to smack the Bears around a bit with Green Bay being 8 point favorites. I’m inclined to agree. Rodgers has all of his weapons back and the Bears are now short Nick Foles and are turning back to Mitchell Trubisky. (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable)

Our models have Aaron Jones as the big chalk at captain tonight at around 19 percent and for good reason. As eight point favorites you would expect a heavy dose of Jones and Jamal Williams to round out the end of what I would expect to be a sloppy offensive outing from the Bears who have the most inept offense in the NFL. Technically Davante Adams is projected as the second highest but I think the better pivot would be to Aaron Rodgers. Aaron has every weapon at his disposal tonight (update: Marquez Valdez Scantling had a mid week achilles injury and is questionable) and while I don’t think it’s possible to stop Davante they may be able to slow him just enough to make that $18,900 price tag too steep of a price. I am and always will be a Matt Nagy hater, I’ve made it clear that I think his play calling is stupid. He runs more gadget plays than normal plays. But, if he can get out his way and actually attack the Green Bay weakness which has been for years their run defense the have a narrow path to keeping this close which would make David Montgomery an intriguing captain play. I would expect his ownership to be under 5% at captain tonight. Likely won’t pay off but all you need is a shot in showdown. Rounding out my captain spot is Allen Robinson just due to pure talent. He’s in such a horrible position as a receiver but he keeps producing. He’s gonna be behind the eight ball tonight though as he gets the Jaire Alexander treatment tonight and there aren’t many players who can do anything with that but if we’re expecting the Bears to play from behind he’ll get plenty of chances to break free.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

As per usual, kickers are in play. If I were to roll a defense tonight it would be Green Bay considering who is throwing the ball. It’s going to be interesting to see if Mitchell can get through his reads to his second and third receivers.

Packers: Allen Lazard, Jamal Williams, Defense, Robert Tonyan, Mason Crosby

Bears: Mitchell Trubisky, Jimmy Graham, Darnell Mooney, Cairo Santos, Cordarrelle Patterson, Anthony Miller

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.29 Bears at Packers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders is going to be a fun event this evening so let’s enjoy ourselves and treat it for what it is, a good game that we can take a few shots on. Don’t get tilted over these, they arte hard to win. DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $ 20,100

Pivot: Derek Carr $14,700

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill $16,500

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce $15,900

Contrarian #3: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $12,300

Vegas Total: 56 points Chiefs: -7.5

I find it so strange that Vegas has so little faith in their home team. I know it is the Chiefs but they have outperformed expectations every step of the way and they have already shown that they have the ability to play up-tempo and they beat the Chiefs by 8 in KC earlier this year. I see this one being close for four quarters so for all of you playing props I’d recommend taking the Raiders +7.5 -116. It’s obvious that Patrick Mahomes is going to be the chalk even at $20,100 and I won’t argue if you go that route but there are two guys I really like. Derek Carr is $14,700 and went for 347 yards passing and 3 TD’s in there last meeting and I’ve been much more optimistic on the Raiders this year than most. Tyreek Hill became a much more intriguing option with news that Lamarcus Joyner on the Covid-19 list and unable to play leaving Amik Robinson in his stead. I know Joyner isn’t anything special but Robinson is a complete mess. no way he keeps up with his 4.45 40 time and overly aggressive nature at DB. The Cheetah is likely going to burn him any time the Raiders go man and even in the cover-2 man under concept Hill will burn these guys with crossing routes. My deep contrarian play is Clyde Edwars-Helaire. Now bear with me. Every year Andy Reid goes through these stints where he gets too cute with the play calling and he completely forgets that he has a running back. He will do it for three or four weeks and then get back to normal. I don’t know if he just uses the later half of the season to test things out to get ready for the playoffs, or if he just looses his mind every year for a while but it always happens. If you want to run a script that matches the Vegas line and bank on the Chiefs dominating an Edwards-Helaire captain play could potentially break the slate. I know I am leaving big play guys out but you know who they are if you want to use them. They’ll be listed as flex plays below but we could have gone 8 deep with captains today but these are just my favorites for various reasons.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders: (All captains are viable flex’s)

First thing that sticks out tonight is that I’m not going to recommend either defenses at flex outside of maybe a super contrarian game script if you are running 150 lineups. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and Derek Carr is great overall when it comes to limiting turnovers. Kickers are in play and if you want to bank on a shootout you’ll need big play options like Henry Ruggs and Demarcus Robinson in your lineup. Luckily the Chiefs are pretty condensed with their playmakers so I’ll likely not using anyone besides Harrison Butker or Demarcus Robinson as ancillary flex options.

Raiders: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Algholor, Daniel Carlson, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards

Chiefs: Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Harrison Butker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Week 10 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $18,600

Pivot: Cam Newton $16,200

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers $14,400

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews $11,400/ JK Dobbins $12,600 (If Ingram is out)

Contrarian #3: Damien Harris $13,200/ Rex Burkhead $10,200 (If Harris is out or on “snap count”)

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Ravens -6.5:

Vegas is projecting this to be a low scoring tough slog and with rain and wind around 20 MPH at kickoff if you wanted to go with defenses and runners you can choose that as an alternate path than what I mention below. It’s 2020 and more often than not we see crazy things happen contrary to popular opinion every night.

I am going to get this out there first. Living in North Carolina I’ve been forced to watch Cam Newton throw the ball since long before I ever wrote DFS articles. Once the health became I problem I knew the wheels would fall off. His throwing mechanics, accuracy, and tendency to get moody on the sidelines would eventually cause a good deal of problems. He has played one top ten defense all season and was benched after throwing three picks and ended the game with 2.82 points. But, with that being said I recognize my bias here and he makes a lot of sense as a contrarian captain play for much the same reason. I’m not the only person who feels this way and I think we’ll be surprised by just how low his ownership will be at captain. He also presents a clear path with Jakobi Meyers as his main weapon and it looks like Ravens DB Jimmy Smith won’t be playing tonight so Josh McDaniels will surely try to scheme Cam’s favorite guy open. We all know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table so no need to say much and if pairing him with a pass catcher you have two main options in Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown. Both of them have been largely absent this season but someone has to score and the added dynamic of Lamar running the ball may just cause Bill Belichick to make him win through the air so I think you have to pair him with one or the other at minimum. Finally, according to Ian Rappaport he expects Damien Harris to play and he seems to be their best back right now. But Ian Rappaport is one of the absolute worst NFL “insiders” in the business consistently giving you incorrect information causing you to make bad choices (he said CMC and Mike Davis were going to split carries last week….) so until I see official word I will plan on Rex Burkhead as a deep contrarian play as he has shown a high ability to play option football and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of that tonight from both teams.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both Defenses are in play tonight due to both QB’s struggling to throw the ball and the rain and wind. Kickers worry me for the same weather reasons but I’ll have them sprinkled in, mainly Justin Tucker. I personally love Isaiah Ford but he’s a smaller receiver who his better with timing throws that need an accurate QB throwing it. Cam is inaccurate and high on his throws so beyond a cheap punt play I don’t feel great there. Dez Bryant is still on the practice squad so the Dez truthers will have to wait at least another week.

Patriots: Defense, James White, Damiere Byrd, Isaiah Ford,

Ravens: Defense, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead, Justin Tucker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail

Week 9 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $16,800

Pivot: Tom Brady $15,900

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees $15,000

Contrarian #2: Mike Evans $12,600

Contrarian #3: Michael Thomas $14,700

This one is incredibly interesting in terms of Showdown contests go with a number of narratives. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are going back and forth for the NFL’s touchdown record. Antonio Brown returns to action after a lengthy absence as does Michael Thomas. A little less talked about narrative is that Brees has been dealing with a right shoulder issue and I’m not sure of the severity, how long he’s dealt with it, or how it will affect him if at all. Vegas thinks that this will be a close shootout with a total of 50.5 and Tampa being 3.5 point favorites at home so they are thinking pickum. Alvin Kamara will always be chalk when he is in a showdown lineup and for good reason but I think if you were ever to go somewhere else at captain this is the week facing the best run defense in the NFL and arguably the best overall defense and with Michael Thomas looking to return to action potentially changing his target share just a bit through the air. I think the safest pivot will be Tom Brady with a full allotment of weapons, in primetime, after a rough outing against the Giants. The Saints secondary is nothing to be scared of and he will have what is arguably now the best WR core with Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and two backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette who can run inside and catch the ball out of the backfield. I really don’t think the Saints have a chance to stop them, our problem is picking the spots where the points will come from. From the Saints offense we only have 3 primary options tonight in Kamara, Thomas, and Brees so I’m really not going to spend much time there. Overall I count 10 different players on DraftKings the we could consider in your captain spot so my list is not comprehensive by any means tonight, the five up top are just the safest options in my opinion. I think for high upside low owned options Chris Godwin will be extremely low owned given his finger injury and I think everyone is gonna wait a week before running AB out there.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

There are just a plethora of Bucs that are worth considering tonight so I will list my flex plays in order of most to least favorite today. If you run a script where the game will be close like Vegas predicts load on on Bucs pass catchers and if you are running a couple of scrips where the Bucs roll over the Saints like I am it would be good idea to run a pass catcher or two with either Fournette or Jones in a 4-2 split with either Kamara or Thomas and whoever you can fit in as your second Saints player.

Buccaneers: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Ryan Succop, Bucs Defense, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Will Lutz, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

0 comments
0 FacebookTwitterPinterestEmail
Newer Posts

Subscribe to our newsletter

The best bets and resources to make you more profitable

    Our Company

    At WIN DAILY®, our motto is to “change your game and change your life.” We want to help you win that bet, parlay, and big DFS tournament and have some fun while you do. Our goal is to help you turn your love of sports into a profit center while playing responsibly and enjoying your time with a like-minded community.

    ©2024 WIN DAILY®. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.

    This site is 100% for entertainment purposes only and does not involve real money betting. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800 GAMBLER. This service is intended for adult users only.
    -
    00:00
    00:00
    Update Required Flash plugin
    -
    00:00
    00:00