Packers

NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns:

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders is going to be a fun event this evening so let’s enjoy ourselves and treat it for what it is, a good game that we can take a few shots on. Don’t get tilted over these, they arte hard to win. DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders MVP candidates (1.5x points)

Chalk: Patrick Mahomes $ 20,100

Pivot: Derek Carr $14,700

Contrarian #1: Tyreek Hill $16,500

Contrarian #2: Travis Kelce $15,900

Contrarian #3: Clyde Edwards-Helaire $12,300

Vegas Total: 56 points Chiefs: -7.5

I find it so strange that Vegas has so little faith in their home team. I know it is the Chiefs but they have outperformed expectations every step of the way and they have already shown that they have the ability to play up-tempo and they beat the Chiefs by 8 in KC earlier this year. I see this one being close for four quarters so for all of you playing props I’d recommend taking the Raiders +7.5 -116. It’s obvious that Patrick Mahomes is going to be the chalk even at $20,100 and I won’t argue if you go that route but there are two guys I really like. Derek Carr is $14,700 and went for 347 yards passing and 3 TD’s in there last meeting and I’ve been much more optimistic on the Raiders this year than most. Tyreek Hill became a much more intriguing option with news that Lamarcus Joyner on the Covid-19 list and unable to play leaving Amik Robinson in his stead. I know Joyner isn’t anything special but Robinson is a complete mess. no way he keeps up with his 4.45 40 time and overly aggressive nature at DB. The Cheetah is likely going to burn him any time the Raiders go man and even in the cover-2 man under concept Hill will burn these guys with crossing routes. My deep contrarian play is Clyde Edwars-Helaire. Now bear with me. Every year Andy Reid goes through these stints where he gets too cute with the play calling and he completely forgets that he has a running back. He will do it for three or four weeks and then get back to normal. I don’t know if he just uses the later half of the season to test things out to get ready for the playoffs, or if he just looses his mind every year for a while but it always happens. If you want to run a script that matches the Vegas line and bank on the Chiefs dominating an Edwards-Helaire captain play could potentially break the slate. I know I am leaving big play guys out but you know who they are if you want to use them. They’ll be listed as flex plays below but we could have gone 8 deep with captains today but these are just my favorites for various reasons.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders: (All captains are viable flex’s)

First thing that sticks out tonight is that I’m not going to recommend either defenses at flex outside of maybe a super contrarian game script if you are running 150 lineups. The Chiefs are the Chiefs and Derek Carr is great overall when it comes to limiting turnovers. Kickers are in play and if you want to bank on a shootout you’ll need big play options like Henry Ruggs and Demarcus Robinson in your lineup. Luckily the Chiefs are pretty condensed with their playmakers so I’ll likely not using anyone besides Harrison Butker or Demarcus Robinson as ancillary flex options.

Raiders: Darren Waller, Josh Jacobs, Henry Ruggs, Nelson Algholor, Daniel Carlson, Hunter Renfrow, Bryan Edwards

Chiefs: Demarcus Robinson, Mecole Hardman, Le’Veon Bell, Harrison Butker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.22 Chiefs at Raiders . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Week 10 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $18,600

Pivot: Cam Newton $16,200

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers $14,400

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews $11,400/ JK Dobbins $12,600 (If Ingram is out)

Contrarian #3: Damien Harris $13,200/ Rex Burkhead $10,200 (If Harris is out or on “snap count”)

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Ravens -6.5:

Vegas is projecting this to be a low scoring tough slog and with rain and wind around 20 MPH at kickoff if you wanted to go with defenses and runners you can choose that as an alternate path than what I mention below. It’s 2020 and more often than not we see crazy things happen contrary to popular opinion every night.

I am going to get this out there first. Living in North Carolina I’ve been forced to watch Cam Newton throw the ball since long before I ever wrote DFS articles. Once the health became I problem I knew the wheels would fall off. His throwing mechanics, accuracy, and tendency to get moody on the sidelines would eventually cause a good deal of problems. He has played one top ten defense all season and was benched after throwing three picks and ended the game with 2.82 points. But, with that being said I recognize my bias here and he makes a lot of sense as a contrarian captain play for much the same reason. I’m not the only person who feels this way and I think we’ll be surprised by just how low his ownership will be at captain. He also presents a clear path with Jakobi Meyers as his main weapon and it looks like Ravens DB Jimmy Smith won’t be playing tonight so Josh McDaniels will surely try to scheme Cam’s favorite guy open. We all know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table so no need to say much and if pairing him with a pass catcher you have two main options in Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown. Both of them have been largely absent this season but someone has to score and the added dynamic of Lamar running the ball may just cause Bill Belichick to make him win through the air so I think you have to pair him with one or the other at minimum. Finally, according to Ian Rappaport he expects Damien Harris to play and he seems to be their best back right now. But Ian Rappaport is one of the absolute worst NFL “insiders” in the business consistently giving you incorrect information causing you to make bad choices (he said CMC and Mike Davis were going to split carries last week….) so until I see official word I will plan on Rex Burkhead as a deep contrarian play as he has shown a high ability to play option football and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of that tonight from both teams.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both Defenses are in play tonight due to both QB’s struggling to throw the ball and the rain and wind. Kickers worry me for the same weather reasons but I’ll have them sprinkled in, mainly Justin Tucker. I personally love Isaiah Ford but he’s a smaller receiver who his better with timing throws that need an accurate QB throwing it. Cam is inaccurate and high on his throws so beyond a cheap punt play I don’t feel great there. Dez Bryant is still on the practice squad so the Dez truthers will have to wait at least another week.

Patriots: Defense, James White, Damiere Byrd, Isaiah Ford,

Ravens: Defense, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead, Justin Tucker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Week 9 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers

Chalk: Alvin Kamara $16,800

Pivot: Tom Brady $15,900

Contrarian #1: Drew Brees $15,000

Contrarian #2: Mike Evans $12,600

Contrarian #3: Michael Thomas $14,700

This one is incredibly interesting in terms of Showdown contests go with a number of narratives. Tom Brady and Drew Brees are going back and forth for the NFL’s touchdown record. Antonio Brown returns to action after a lengthy absence as does Michael Thomas. A little less talked about narrative is that Brees has been dealing with a right shoulder issue and I’m not sure of the severity, how long he’s dealt with it, or how it will affect him if at all. Vegas thinks that this will be a close shootout with a total of 50.5 and Tampa being 3.5 point favorites at home so they are thinking pickum. Alvin Kamara will always be chalk when he is in a showdown lineup and for good reason but I think if you were ever to go somewhere else at captain this is the week facing the best run defense in the NFL and arguably the best overall defense and with Michael Thomas looking to return to action potentially changing his target share just a bit through the air. I think the safest pivot will be Tom Brady with a full allotment of weapons, in primetime, after a rough outing against the Giants. The Saints secondary is nothing to be scared of and he will have what is arguably now the best WR core with Antonio Brown, Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Scotty Miller, and Tyler Johnson. Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate at tight end, and two backs in Ronald Jones and Leonard Fournette who can run inside and catch the ball out of the backfield. I really don’t think the Saints have a chance to stop them, our problem is picking the spots where the points will come from. From the Saints offense we only have 3 primary options tonight in Kamara, Thomas, and Brees so I’m really not going to spend much time there. Overall I count 10 different players on DraftKings the we could consider in your captain spot so my list is not comprehensive by any means tonight, the five up top are just the safest options in my opinion. I think for high upside low owned options Chris Godwin will be extremely low owned given his finger injury and I think everyone is gonna wait a week before running AB out there.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

There are just a plethora of Bucs that are worth considering tonight so I will list my flex plays in order of most to least favorite today. If you run a script where the game will be close like Vegas predicts load on on Bucs pass catchers and if you are running a couple of scrips where the Bucs roll over the Saints like I am it would be good idea to run a pass catcher or two with either Fournette or Jones in a 4-2 split with either Kamara or Thomas and whoever you can fit in as your second Saints player.

Buccaneers: Rob Gronkowski, Chris Godwin, Ronald Jones, Leonard Fournette, Antonio Brown, Ryan Succop, Bucs Defense, Scotty Miller, Tyler Johnson, Cameron Brate

Saints: Emmanuel Sanders, Will Lutz, Jared Cook, Latavius Murray

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.8 Saints at Buccaneers . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

Week 8 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles

Chalk: Boston Scott $13,200

Pivot: Carson Wentz $17,700

Contrarian #1: Dallas Goedert $11,700

Contrarian #2: Ezekiel Elliott $16,200

Contrarian #3: Ben DiNucci $12,900/Eagles Defense $9,300 *****High Risk*****

The theme of the day for the majority of our games this weekend is weather and this Cowboys/Eagles contests is no different. With sustained winds over 15 MPH and gusts into the mid/upper 20’s we’re need to temper our expectations for offensive production. It’s not really like we were expecting much from Dallas and the Eagles offensive weapons have largely been limited all season so the 42.5 point total feels like a decent number albeit I’m in the mood for unders today and to this point I’m being rewarded for it. Chalk tonight is far and away Boston Scott tipping our projections at 30% in the captain spot and for good reason. Dallas can’t stop anything, he’s cheap, and the weather favors the running game as I already mentioned. If you want to pivot and you feel that the weather will not inhibit the pass and somehow Dallas can stay close (I doubt it), a pivot to Carson Wentz and pairing him with Travis Fulgham or Dallas Goedert will be a fine contrarian option. There is one other EXTREMELY contrarian path and it ties into the Eagles passing narrative, you pair Ben DiNucci with someone like Amari Cooper and pray the lack of film on him allows a few big plays in the first half before the Eagles make an adjustment. I really can’t stress this enough, this last option is high risk but it leverages heavily against the game script that 99 percent of people will be on tonight. If you use this one don’t @ me in discord to tell me it was a bad play. It’s showdown. If you aren’t playing all or nothing you shouldn’t be playing. Ezekiel Elliott is in my captains list for the obvious reason that he is their only real chance to win tonight. He needs 30+ touches at minimum to have a shot but to be honest I don’t trust Mike McCarthy’s ability to do anything correctly so play any Dallas players at your own peril.

Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

You probably hate me right now if you’re a Cowboys fan but I’m gonna keep this fles section pretty straight forward. If you are expecting this game to be as bad as I am for Dallas tonight I would really only consider playing one Cowboy and only in a flex postion. My favorite two guys for that are Zeke or kicker Greg Zuerlein. Sorry Dallas.

Cowboys: (Do I have to?), Amari Cooper, Dalton Shultz, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Tony Pollard, Greg Zuerlein

Eagles: Travis Fulgham, Greg Ward, Richard Rodgers, Corey Clement, Jason Huntley, Jake Elliott

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown For 11.1 Cowboys at Eagles . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!