Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

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Week 10 NFL DFS Introduction to Single-Game Showdowns

DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.

My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.

If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.

Let’s get to the game!

Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.

I’m putting this in every article until folks listen: Do not play Showdown if you’re still building bankroll or you’re tilting from a bad main slate! This is nothing more than a way to have a little fun during the game and it shouldn’t be counted on for anything more than that. They are incredibly difficult to win.

Week 8 NFL DFS MVP candidates (1.5x points) Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots

Chalk: Lamar Jackson $18,600

Pivot: Cam Newton $16,200

Contrarian #1: Jakobi Meyers $14,400

Contrarian #2: Mark Andrews $11,400/ JK Dobbins $12,600 (If Ingram is out)

Contrarian #3: Damien Harris $13,200/ Rex Burkhead $10,200 (If Harris is out or on “snap count”)

Vegas: 44.5 Point total Ravens -6.5:

Vegas is projecting this to be a low scoring tough slog and with rain and wind around 20 MPH at kickoff if you wanted to go with defenses and runners you can choose that as an alternate path than what I mention below. It’s 2020 and more often than not we see crazy things happen contrary to popular opinion every night.

I am going to get this out there first. Living in North Carolina I’ve been forced to watch Cam Newton throw the ball since long before I ever wrote DFS articles. Once the health became I problem I knew the wheels would fall off. His throwing mechanics, accuracy, and tendency to get moody on the sidelines would eventually cause a good deal of problems. He has played one top ten defense all season and was benched after throwing three picks and ended the game with 2.82 points. But, with that being said I recognize my bias here and he makes a lot of sense as a contrarian captain play for much the same reason. I’m not the only person who feels this way and I think we’ll be surprised by just how low his ownership will be at captain. He also presents a clear path with Jakobi Meyers as his main weapon and it looks like Ravens DB Jimmy Smith won’t be playing tonight so Josh McDaniels will surely try to scheme Cam’s favorite guy open. We all know what Lamar Jackson brings to the table so no need to say much and if pairing him with a pass catcher you have two main options in Mark Andrews and Marquis Brown. Both of them have been largely absent this season but someone has to score and the added dynamic of Lamar running the ball may just cause Bill Belichick to make him win through the air so I think you have to pair him with one or the other at minimum. Finally, according to Ian Rappaport he expects Damien Harris to play and he seems to be their best back right now. But Ian Rappaport is one of the absolute worst NFL “insiders” in the business consistently giving you incorrect information causing you to make bad choices (he said CMC and Mike Davis were going to split carries last week….) so until I see official word I will plan on Rex Burkhead as a deep contrarian play as he has shown a high ability to play option football and I think we’re going to see a heavy dose of that tonight from both teams.

Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots Flex Plays: (All captains are viable flex’s)

Both Defenses are in play tonight due to both QB’s struggling to throw the ball and the rain and wind. Kickers worry me for the same weather reasons but I’ll have them sprinkled in, mainly Justin Tucker. I personally love Isaiah Ford but he’s a smaller receiver who his better with timing throws that need an accurate QB throwing it. Cam is inaccurate and high on his throws so beyond a cheap punt play I don’t feel great there. Dez Bryant is still on the practice squad so the Dez truthers will have to wait at least another week.

Patriots: Defense, James White, Damiere Byrd, Isaiah Ford,

Ravens: Defense, Mark Ingram, JK Dobbins, Willie Snead, Justin Tucker

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Stoweby’s Showdown for 11.15 Ravens at Patriots . Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!