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Pablo Lopez

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 5/1 (FanDuel Main Slate)

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

No weather concerns in tonight’s slate, so plug these Aces and Bases plays in with confidence!

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Dustin May ($9,700)

We’ve got five or six viable “aces” out of 12 total SPs on tonight’s slate, including both pitchers in this game, GPP darling Eduardo Rodriguez (BOS) facing the Texas Rangers in Globe Life Park, the young and talented RHP Zac Gallen (ARI) at home facing the Rockies, and veteran hurler Charlie Morton (ATL) in a tough matchup against the Blue Jays. But May stands out as the highest upside play given the fact he reached double-digit Ks in his last start, the game features the lowest projected total and the Brewers — his opponent, strike out at a 27.2% clip, the third-highest rate in the majors. You can save a few bucks dipping down to Brandon Woodruff, especially if the think the Dodgers bats will continue their scuffling ways — but May is a -125 favorite and could go underowned given the number of viable arms with slightly cheaper price tags.

Best Value: Zac Gallen ($9,000)

In his last start, Gallen looked absolutely dominant on the mound against a potent Braves lineup, limiting Atlanta to just one hit — a single from Freddie Freeman — and only one runner reaching scoring position. This scoreless gem from Gallen was his best start of the season and should give him ample confidence against a Rockies lineup that isn’t very good outside of Coors Field — sporting a ghastly 27 road wRC & 56 road wRC+ that are both dead last in the league. If Gallen made mincemeat out of the Braves, he should easily dispatch the Rockies. There’s a hint of risk here, as Gallen is still a young pitcher who’s learning his craft, but when he’s sharp, he’s REALLY sharp — and tough to hit.

Contrarian GPP Value: Blake Snell ($8,800)

It’s not really great value since he’s less than $1K cheaper than the top arm on tonight’s slate, but Snell makes a lot of sense as a low-owned GPP play. The former Cy Young winner has had only one truly devastating MLB DFS outing (April 13 @ PIT) this season, when he failed to get out of the first inning, and the rest of his starts have been, well…serviceable. The good thing is that he’s coming off the longest outing of the young season (5.1 IP in a no decision on 4/25 @ LAD) and he’s sporting a 13.50 K/9 so far in 20.2 IP. The Giants lineup does have a few scary righty-versus-LHP bats, like splits-dynamic Wilmer Flores and veteran sluggers Evan Longoria and Buster Posey — but I like his chances at a win and quality start if he can notch a couple more outs than he did in his last appearance.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Opener LHP Travis Bergen)

This game will be played in Dunedin FL at TD Ballpark, the Blue Jays slated to open with Travis Bergen and giving Tommy Milone the bulk of work as the primary middle reliever. Neither of these guys is up to the task of stopping the Braves, who are loaded throughout the order with power righty bats (and a lefty slugger (Freddie Freeman, $4,100) who over the course of his career has hit southpaws just fine. Freeman’s hefty price tag makes him less of a priority, but Ronald Acuna ($4,300) is worth the spend up and there are a few value bats to get in this stack: Marcell Ozuna ($3,300), switch-hitting Ozzie Albies ($3,100), Travis d’Arnaud ($2,700) and 3B Austin Riley ($2,500). I didn’t forget about Dansby Swanson ($2,500), Pablo Sandoval ($2,000) and projected 9-hitter Gil Heredia ($2,900), all of whom could produce in a funky (and contrarian) 6-8-9-1 stack. But I think my favorite approach here is 1-3-4-5 or 1-3-5-7 — depending on who lands where in the final lineup. There’s also some opportunity to run back a game stack with some Blue Jays bats.

Value Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber)

I love the D-backs righthanders bats in this matchup, especially leadoff hitter Carson Kelly, who’s mashing the ball in a torrid start to the 2021 season (.340/.507/.717 through 73 plate appearances). Rounding out the 1-4 stack are switch-hitters Eduardo Escobar ($3,400) and Asdrubal Cabrera ($2,800) and lefty 1B/OF Pavin Smith, who’s been flourishing near the top of the order in the absence of Christian Walker and Kole Calhoun. Smith already has a homer, triple and double against LHP in just 17 AB this season, so I’m okay with him in this group. Other value options include Josh Rojas ($2,500) and the less appealing Wyatt Mathisen ($2,200).

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

The Red Sox have just the third highest projected total after the Braves and Blue Jays, but they are re a lly heating up at the plate. I love the 2-3-4-5 hitters in this game: Alex Verdugo ($3,200), J.D. Martinez ($4,200), Xander Bogaerts ($3,300) and Rafael Devers ($3,700), but there’s some value in Kike Hernandez ($2,700) in the leadoff spot and all of Christian Vazquez ($2,300), Marwin Gonzalez ($2,200) and Hunter Renfroe ($2,200) offer solid risk-reward upside at dirt cheap prices.

Good luck, and make sure you utilize the MLB Projection models to land on your one-offs and off-the-wall value plays!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB DFS: Aces and Bases – 4/24 (FanDuel Main Slate)

Antonio D'Arcangelis 3 years ago

written by Antonio D'Arcangelis

Today’s edition of Aces and Bases focuses ONLY on FanDuel’s six-game MLB DFS Main Slate for 7:05PM ET, hopefully finding you some green screens!

OAK@BAL has a significant risk of postponement, and the projected pop-up storms in Atlanta take that game off the board for me as far as pitchers are concerned.

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

Bauer may be a pretty insufferable social media presence, but he’s a damn fine pitcher who knows his craft as well as any hurler in the bigs. Over the past couple seasons, he’s sported a K/9 rate north of 12.0 and his xFIP is among the best in the game, just eclipsing 3.00. Bauer is the clear top dog, as the next most expensive pitcher on the slate is Kevin Gausman against the Marlins, and while the man formerly known as “Kevin Gascan” has been solid in 2021, the veteran doesn’t carry the same double-digit strikeout potential as Bauer. And Adam Strangis agrees in his 4/24 Rotation article that it’ll be tough to avoid Bauer tonight.

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($8,200)

Lopez fared well against these same Giants in Miami just six days ago (6.0 IP, 9/2 K/BB, 1 ER) en route to 49 FanDuel points in a Marlins loss. If you want to fade the chalky Bauer and find some extra salary for a few more big bats, you can take your pick among Gausman or Lopez — though I always prefer the higher K upside on FanDuel. If Lopez can sneak out another quality start and notch a win this time, 50+ FD points is well within reach.

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

The most obvious stack in play is in Coors, but we may have to get a little creative with who we pick since salary is an issue. If you’re spending down to Lopez at P, you can afford the vaunted 2-5 hitters, which include Rhys Hoskins ($4,200), Bryce Harper ($4,800), JT Realmuto ($3,800) and Didi Gregorius ($3,500), but using Bauer essentially takes RHBs Hoskins and Realmuto (the two less appealing of that group) out of play and necessitates lower-cost options like Alec Bohm ($3,200) and Mickey Moniak ($3,000). AS far as a game stack goes, the Rockies that offer the most upside are Charlie Blackmon ($4,000) and Raimel Tapia ($3,100).

Value Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson)

While Gibson has turned in three straight effective, quality starts after a disastrous debut in 2021, the Chisox are one of the only MLB DFS stacking options available that offer upside at a relatively low cost. Since there’s a dearth of bargain pitching options, you should be rounding out your Coors stacks with one-offs or looking the way of the potent sub-$3K hitters in the Windy City, including Yoan Moncada ($2,900), Luis Robert ($2,800), Yasmani Grandal ($2,700) and Andrew Vaughn ($2,100). There’s some threat of rain in this one, but probably not enough to cause a significant delay or postponement,

Value/Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez)

If you’re strictly a single-entry MLB DFS guy who hates hedging with multiple lineups, this slate may not be for you — but multi-entry GPP junkies should be considering some Giants stack against Lopez, as the splits indicate you should be able to harness some leverage and tournament-winning upside with some lefty bats in San Francisco. I know — using Lopez in other builds assumes he’ll be successful — but our need for cheap bats notwithstanding on this small slate, we have t find ways to get different. Mike Yastrzemski ($2,800), Brandon Belt ($2,700), Tommy La Stella ($2,600) and Alex Dickerson ($2,700) make sense as a Giants stack in this crazy world. Run it back with Jazz Chisolm, Jr. ($3,100) and/or leadoff hitter Corey Dickerson ($2,700) for the Marlins.

Good luck!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: April 2, 2021

Jared Levitt 3 years ago

written by Jared Levitt

Welcome to round 2 of the 2021 MLB season. I’m Jared and I’ll be filling in for Brian today. Some pretty big shoes to fill! My goal today will be to provide you with enough information to make solid choices. I won’t necessarily provide you the most popular plays, but the plays that will hopefully differentiate your lineups from the rest of the field and provide you enough success to get a solid ROI. Let’s breakdown some MLB DFS!

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

We have an unusually small slate for a Friday with only 6 games on the main slate. This is what happens when Opening Day is on a Thursday. There’s an earlier matchup between the Red Sox and O’s but the focus of my write-up will be the Main Slate on Draftkings. Tonight we have 2 aces making their debuts with their new teams; Trevor Bauer ($10.5k) and Blake Snell ($9.7k). We have the Dodgers playing in Coors against a pitcher that struggled mightily in 2020, with an implied total (7.3) to show for it. We have Wilmer Flores ($3.7k) against a lefty. And finally, we have a game between 2 teams that combined for 1 run yesterday

Now that we have that out of the way, let’s dig in to today’s slate.

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

Today we have 2 aces going in Bauer and Snell, both making their debuts for their new teams. I have a hard time paying $10.5k for Bauer today with him pitching in Coors Field. As a petty Mets fan, I hope he gets shelled today.

My SP1 today will be Snell. You’re getting an $800 savings from Bauer and he’s also pitching in a much more pitcher-friendly environment. Although you wouldn’t know it if you looked at the box score from beautiful San Diego yesterday. In a Covid shortened season last year, Snell k’d more than 11 per 9 and had a 15% swinging-strike rate. One of the things I love about Snell is his ability to get batters to chase pitches out of the zone. Last season he had a chase rate of over 35%. Although Arizona managed to knock out Darvish early yesterday, I think they’ll be over-matched today against Snell. I’m locking him in as my SP1.

Where we see more options today is with your SP2. My first lean will be Pablo Lopez ($7k). The Rays are at an automatic disadvantage as they lose the DH. The Rays will probably trot out 4 lefties, but 3 of the 4 have K rates over 20% against righties. Lopez last season k’d more than 9 per 9. Last season he was also able to limit hard contact with a hard hit rate of less than 29%. Finally, he had a ground ball rate of 28.6% which will certainly help limit any damage the Rays can do.

My other lean for SP2 tonight is Jesus Luzardo ($7.9k). The Astros are a tough lineup so this will be no easy task, but Luzardo is one of the more talented pitchers going tonight and Houston losing Springer helps as well. Last night’s game was much closer than the final score shows. The A’s bullpen gave up a ton of late-inning damage. In his young career, Luzardo has been able to k both righties and lefties at a rate of greater than 24%. Like Lopez, Luzardo has the ability to keep the ball on the ground, with a 45% ground ball rate in 2020.

My locks today will be Snell and Lopez.

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

Let’s get the obvious out of the way. The Dodgers will be a popular place to go tonight. They’re facing off against Antonio Senzatela who was just not very good last year. He pitched to a 4.81 xFIP, gave up a ton of hard contact (35.4%), and didn’t miss many bats (8.1% swinging strike %). The stars are aligned for the Dodgers to put up a very crooked number.

My favorite stack tonight is the White Sox. They’re facing off against Andrew Heaney who pitched to a 4.15 xFIP last year. Heaney also gave up a ton of hard contact with a hard-hit rate of nearly 37%. I’m going to focus on 1-3. Tim Anderson ($5.5k), Luis Robert ($5.3k), and Jose Abreu ($5.8k). It’s an expensive stack, but a very high ceiling stack. Anderson has a .388 wOBA against lefties and Abreu has a .404. The White Sox has an implied total of only 4.09. I think they crush that number today.

My final recommendation of the day is the Mariners. With this lineup, I may choose to just pluck a few random batters as they are dirt cheap. They’re facing off against Johnny Cueto who is about 5 years past his prime. Cueto struggled last year. He pitched to a 4.78 xFIP. He barely misses any bats anymore as seen by his 8.3% swinging strike last year. Seattle has some cheap bats in the meat of their lineup that will help you pay for some Dodger or White Sox bats. One bat I’ll be focused on here is Mitch Haniger ($3.1k) leading off. He’s returning from a pretty nasty testicle injury in 2019. Evan White ($2.7k) is another bat I’ll be focused on if you choose to skip over Abreu. He’s close to min priced and should be batting clean up.

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Tonight’s slate, although small, has the makings of a fun slate. A powerful lineup in Coors, 2 aces making their debuts for their new teams, Wilmer Flores against a lefty. You will also have the opportunity to use 1 ace and 1 SP2, or 2 SP2’s. I’ll be using Snellzilla and Lopez!

Weather does not look to be a concern anywhere tonight.

Enjoy this slate – let’s get in our FREE Discord today and chat it up while we dig through our cheat sheets and custom projections here at Win Daily to set up the start of this MLB DFS season with some big wins!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

3 years ago 0 comment

MLB

A Hard Four – High ADP Starting Pitchers

TimmySigs 4 years ago

written by TimmySigs

Four starting pitchers being drafted at 200+ ADP that could blossom in the 2020 shortened season.

Today we’re going to take a look at 4 Starting Pitchers that are not being looked at early in drafts, with everyone here coming in at 200+ ADP. Lets dig in!

1. Griffin Canning

The Griffin, a mix between a lion and a eagle, is one of my favorite mythical creatures. With the Latin translation for Griffin meaning “curved” referring to its beak, its no coincidence the Canning has a wonderful curveball. Canning was called up by the Angels in April of 2019 and was off to a hot start, toting a 2.57 ERA through may. the game caught up to the rookie though, and he found himself in a rough patch in July before ultimately ending up on the IL. Canning was diagnosed with chronic changes to his UCL and was shut down, not expecting to be ready for the start of the 2020 season. Canning has since returned throwing from a mound though and is on track to make a difference right away in a Angels rotation that needs all the help it can get. Back to the bender, Canning’s curveball is on the tighter side, not so much of a looper, and he managed to find the zone with it 46% of the time while batters only swung 50%. The slider was a pretty good offering for the young hurler as well, with a zone rate at 40% and a whiff rate north of 45%. Canning’s changeup can use a bit of work, with just a 13% whiff rate, it was mostly used to take lefties off balance, and was hit around to the tune of a .485 xSLG. That changeup could have been even worse if not for a good fastball in Canning’s corner. Canning has shown great command with that 4 seamer and the pitch has great has above average drop and break. Griffin Canning should improve in his sophomore campaign and has a chance to become the top dog of the Angels staff.

2. Joe Musgrove

Oh Joe. How I wish I could quit you. With 3 secondary pitches above league average whiff rate, zone rate, and K rate though (Slider, Change, Curve) I never will. Joe has been a full time starter for the pirates for 2 years, and has been teetering on a breakout for the same amount of time. Towards the end of last season Musgrove moved to a shortened arm action in his delivery, providing himself with 3 ticks of extra velocity, bringing his fastball all the way up to 95mph from his regular 92mph! With that added velocity Joe managed to absolutely spike his K% to 37% though 3 starts in September. Joe Musgrove is elite in the fact that he has 3 secondary options with swinging strike rate over 15%, being 1 of only 5 pitchers to do so in 2019, the Pirates have been fastball first team for quite some time though, and made Musgrove throw more fastballs then I suspect he wanted to. With longtime fastball oriented pitching coach Ray Searage finally gone and replaced by analytics minded Oscar Marin in Pittsburgh, Joe should at last be able to unleash a barrage of breaking balls to batters and find a way to break through in 2020.

3. Pablo Lopez

Pablo loves to live low, low and below the strike zone. He works mostly off a fantastic changeup that boasts a 30% swinging strike rate, and a 45.8% O-swing. Pablo’s changeup is also able to be thrown for strikes with a 43% zone rate. Pablo’s fastball finds the zone at a 57% rate, which at first glance would give one the idea that he has good command of it, but its more control than command. When the 4 seamer does land in the zone it often gets him in trouble, and batters managed take advantage of it by sitting heat. Lopez offers a curve and a sinker that he like to drop in for strikes as well. The curve is not great put away pitch but it is good enough to be used 20% of the time, while opponents only hit .210 against it. The sinker is used mostly against right handed batters and produces some good swing and miss (22%) when throw below the zone and provides a great tunneling option for the changeup. All Pablo Lopez has to do is harness some Fastball command and find the ability to pepper the top of the strike zone with cheese, and his already great sinker and changeup tunneling will become devastating in 2020.

4. Mike Foltynewicz

Mike Foltynewicz is going to to be the most turn key starter of this group, only a year removed from his tremendous 2018 all star season. Folty lost a tick and half on both his fastball and his slider from 2018 to 2019 though, and while his slider returned similar swinging strike numbers, the avg against rose from .111 in 2018 to .242 in 2019. The fastball was knocked around to a .636 xSLG. In 2018 Folty threw his 4 seamer 40% of the time, while throwing his sinker only 16% of the time. In 2019 those fastball numbers met in the middle and Folty threw his slider/4 seamer/sinker all between 25%-28%, which I thought would help his ability to tunnel the slider. I was wrong. Folty’s sinker returned a .365 xSLG in 2018, in 2019 that number jumped about .463, almost 100 points higher! I would love to see Folty go back to pounding high heat and mixing the sinker when necessary, alternatively it would be nice to see some more changeup usage. The changeup was not a big piece of the gameplan in 2019, only being thrown 9.5% of the time, but showed great results with batters hitting only a measly .178 against it, a 50% zone rate, and a 44% chase and miss, shown here by Anthony Rendon. If Folty can reclaim that tick of heat back to his fastball and keep control of it, he will have no problem landing himself on the All-Star team for the next few years.

Thanks for reading! You can find more great DFS and season long content at WinDaily.com, and find me on Twitter at @TimmySigs.

4 years ago 0 comment

MLB

9/16 MLB DFS Pitching and Prop Picks

5 years ago

written by

This 9/16 MLB DFS slate is small but extremely appetizing. Any time we have an implied total of 13.5 runs in any MLB game it becomes a clear indicator of where all the ownership is going to be directed. The problem is, we also have some excellent SP1 options tonight. So, with the new Sect LP playing in the background, I bring you today’s pitching picks.

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On theDefense

Salary is a huge issue on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, we haveseveral top priced starters with little in the way of mid-tier value. This isgoing to make stacking Coors Field tough unless you take some serious chances.

StephenStrasburg vs. St. Louis Cardinals

$10,400 FD / $11,800 DK

There is little question that Strasburg is the top pitchingoption for this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. The Cardinals are striking out 22.5 percentof the time versus RHPs with a wOBA of .313. The last time “The Stras” faced St.Louis he had nine strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run.If you are going to spend tonight, here is where to look for the highest Kupside.

JoseBerrios vs. Chicago White Sox

$8,500 FD / $10,200 DK

At times I am baffled with the price differences between thesites on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate. For $8,500 tonight on FD Berrios is a highupside option at a bargain price. On DK I have to say “No way Jose” outside oflarge field GPPs. Regardless, the White Sox are striking out 25.7 percent ofthe time versus RHPs with a low .312 wOBA. This season Berrios is 3-1 versusthe Sox with a 3.00 ERA and 25 strikeouts over 27 innings. Love the matchup,hate he is not cheaper on DK.

DakotaHudson vs. Washington Nationals

$8,600 FD / $8,100 DK

Sniffing out the third pitching option on this 9/16 MLB DFSslate was like threading a needle with fat fingers. Although I do like TannerRoark versus the Royals, that $9,300 price tag on DK scared me away. Robbie Rayseemed like another option with great numbers versus Miami, like everyone else.But that blister issue is one where it seems prudent to hold back the cash fora start while we wait and see. Remember Rich Hill’s blister?

The clear choice seems to be Hudson. On FD I prefer Berrios, but on DK here is your best SP2 option at the price. The Nationals are 10^th in MLB in wOBA versus RHPs, and on the lower side of the strikeout world at 21.2 percent. Hudson, however, did strike out seven while only allowing one earned run over six innings in his only start facing the Nats this season. On a tricky 9/16 MLB DFS slate he is the shining star in a SP2 galaxy of dead planets.

Boom orBust

One possible matchup stands out to me on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate for an uber cheap SP2 option. The problem, of course, is he has serious potential to sink you as well. If you are not among the faint of heart this is for you.

PabloLopez vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

$6,700 FD / $5,500 DK

If you are playing on FD on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate, you are better served spending up. The pricing is reasonable, and you can still fit some great bats in without taking this risk. On DK, it is a different world. The Diamondbacks are striking out at a lower 21.3 percent of the time facing RHPs with a low .306 wOBA. Over the last seven days they are batting a pathetic .167 with a wRC+ of 26. If memory serves me that is about the lowest wRC+ I can remember. Attacking a slumping team with a sub-par pitcher sometimes is like hitting the DFS jackpot, or the toilet.

Name	Team	W	L	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	GB%	HR/FB	ERA	xFIP
Stephen Strasburg	Nationals	17	6	10.79	2.31	1.04	50.10%	15.60%	3.49	3.2
Jose Berrios	Twins	12	8	8.6	2.29	1.19	42.10%	12.10%	3.63	4.38
Dakota Hudson	Cardinals	15	7	6.93	4.23	1.18	57.20%	21.20%	3.38	4.49
Pablo Lopez	Marlins	5	8	7.97	2.16	1.31	46.60%	15.90%	4.97	4.24

On theAttack

On this small 9/16 MLB DFS slate the attack options arequite limited with the volume of positive pitching matchups. The Mets / Rockiesgame is where the DFS world is looking so why not look elsewhere?

KevinGausman vs. Chicago Cubs

There is a bit of confusion here as to whether it is Sonny Gray, or Kevin Gausman starting tonight. The latest report I have is Gausman. Lucky for us the pricing is still adjusted to Gray. This means all the Cubs bats are discounted facing a pitcher with a 6.28 road ERA against one of the best hitting teams in baseball. On this 9/16 MLB DFS slate attack this with everything you got.

ChicagoCubs vs. RHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	wOBA	wRC+
Nico Hoerner	26	11.50%	11.50%	0	0.423	0.565	0.988	0.402	149
Anthony Rizzo	443	12.40%	14.20%	4	0.413	0.541	0.954	0.4	147
Kris Bryant	477	9.90%	22.40%	3	0.375	0.516	0.891	0.375	131
Willson Contreras	290	9.70%	24.80%	1	0.359	0.528	0.886	0.368	127
Jason Heyward	440	12.50%	17.50%	8	0.37	0.488	0.859	0.359	121
David Bote	251	13.50%	24.70%	3	0.386	0.458	0.844	0.358	119
Victor Caratini	197	10.20%	22.30%	1	0.355	0.48	0.835	0.351	115
Kyle Schwarber	447	11.60%	25.10%	2	0.329	0.522	0.851	0.348	113
Nicholas Castellanos	505	5.50%	24.40%	2	0.321	0.49	0.811	0.338	108
Javier Baez	448	4.50%	27.90%	3	0.308	0.512	0.82	0.337	106
Robel Garcia	51	5.90%	39.20%	0	0.275	0.511	0.785	0.317	93
Ben Zobrist	109	11.00%	13.80%	0	0.358	0.347	0.705	0.311	89
Ian Happ	90	11.10%	22.20%	2	0.3	0.43	0.73	0.308	87
Jonathan Lucroy	215	9.30%	14.40%	0	0.33	0.378	0.708	0.308	91
Albert Almora Jr.	241	4.10%	16.20%	2	0.284	0.442	0.726	0.299	81

ColeHames vs. Cincinnati Reds

Cole Hamels was lit up in his only start this season facing the Reds allowing five earned runs over four innings. With cheap bats in need on this 9/16 MLB DFS slate there is a bevy of value to be found here on both sites tonight.

Cincinnati Reds vs. LHPs

Name	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	SB	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	wOBA	wRC+
Phillip Ervin	84	7.10%	20.20%	0.35	0	0.405	0.662	1.067	0.312	0.436	168
Aristides Aquino	43	7.00%	32.60%	0.21	1	0.372	0.667	1.039	0.359	0.423	160
Eugenio Suarez	143	17.50%	30.80%	0.57	2	0.406	0.574	0.98	0.296	0.401	145
Alex Blandino	24	25.00%	20.80%	1.2	0	0.417	0.278	0.694	0.056	0.332	101
Curt Casali	88	10.20%	19.30%	0.53	0	0.33	0.429	0.758	0.169	0.321	93
Freddy Galvis	183	1.60%	20.80%	0.08	2	0.295	0.422	0.717	0.139	0.302	85
Jose Peraza	100	7.00%	12.00%	0.58	2	0.32	0.376	0.696	0.108	0.3	80
Jose Iglesias	119	4.20%	10.10%	0.42	0	0.311	0.389	0.7	0.115	0.3	79
Joey Votto	163	11.00%	23.90%	0.46	2	0.344	0.322	0.665	0.07	0.299	79
Josh VanMeter	26	11.50%	30.80%	0.38	1	0.269	0.227	0.497	0.091	0.234	37
Derek Dietrich	25	0.00%	36.00%	0	0	0.24	0.217	0.457	0.043	0.211	21
Tucker Barnhart	49	12.20%	26.50%	0.46	1	0.245	0.163	0.408	0.023	0.188	6

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Monkey Knife Fight Prop Pick

With no interest in either sides of the plate tonight and two starting pitchers both capable of easily reaching these totals I am going with the over on both.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB Daily Fantasy Sports

9/6 DFS Pitching and Prop Picks: Kershaw is the Law

Cora Baylis 5 years ago

written by Cora Baylis

We’re getting down to the final few weeks of the regular season and we’re seeing something strange. The good teams are really taking control right now and it’s caused some very bizarre betting lines. There are more –300/-400 favorite than ever before and it’s making pitchers extremely chalky for DFS purposes. What makes it even more bizarre is the fact that cheap pitchers have been most successful in terms of DFS and that totally throws everything into a loop. That’s why most of the GPP/punt play recommendations in this article won’t be big name players because it’s key to pick a guy with low ownership. Let’s get into our 9/6 DFS Pitching plays!

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9/6 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SF

DK ($11,900) FD ($11,700)

Is there any question that Kershaw is one of the best cash game plays? Not only is he arguably the most reliable pitcher around, he’s also got a superb matchup. Let’s begin with his consistency, with Kershaw throwing at least six innings in all 24 of his starts this season. He’s the only pitcher in the league to do that and it’s led to a 2.96 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. That’s vintage Kershaw, as he’s also got 90 Ks over his last 70 innings pitched.

All of those fantastic numbers make him tough to fade against an offense like the Giants, with San Fran ranked 26^th in runs scored, 27^th in OBP, 26^th in OPS and 28^th in wOBA. In his two starts against the Giants this season, Kershaw has gone at least seven innings in both outings while allowing just two combined runs. That’s why he and the Dodgers enter this matchup as a –250 favorite.

Charlie Morton/Brendan McKay, TB vs. TOR

DK ($10,600/$7,800) FD ($9,700/$7,100)

Morton is easily one of the best cash game pitchers on the board. We’re talking about a guy with a 3.06 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 30.2 percent K rate facing one of the worst offenses in baseball. That doesn’t even take into consideration that Tropicana Field ranks as one of the best pitcher’s parks around, with Morton amassing a 2.62 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 12.1 K/9 rate there this season.

Battling the Blue Jays is simply the icing on the cake, with Toronto ranked 21^st in K rate, 23^rd in runs scored, 28^th in OBP, 24^th in OPS and 27^th in wOBA. Vegas agrees, making Morton and the Rays a –350 favorite in this stellar matchup. There is some thought out there that Brendan McKay may move into this starting spot and he would definitely be in play with his absurd minor league statistics against a poor offense like this.

9/6 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Robbie Ray, ARI at CIN

DK ($10,500) FD ($8,800)

Ray is literally the definition of a GPP play. Any pitcher with a 1.32 WHIP and 31 percent K rate is the anthesis of a GPP pitcher, because that’s volatility as its finest. The reason we can trust that K rate more than that WHIP today is because of this matchup, with the Reds ranked 22^nd in runs scored, 21^st in OPS, 22^nd in OBP and 27^th in xwOBA. In addition, Cincinnati actually ranks 27^th in runs scored against left-handers. Ray has shown some signs of consistency recently too, allowing four runs or fewer in 13-straight starts, scoring at least 24 FanDuel points in all but two of those outings.

Dinelson Lamet, SD vs. COL

DK ($10,300) FD ($8,400)

This has double-digit strikeouts written all over it. As a Rockies fan, I can tell you that this is one of the worst offenses in baseball right now. They’ve completely given up on the season and it’s evident by the fact that they rank 29^th in OBP and last in OPS on the road this season. They also happen to rank 27^th in K rate on the road and traditionally struggle in a pitcher-friendly stadium like Petco Park. That’s horrifying against a strikeout-king like Lamet, with the right-hander posting a 3.72 xFIP and 32 percent K rate this season.

9/6 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

Pablo Lopez, MIA vs. KC

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,700)

The 4.89 ERA from Lopez will surely scare some owners off but this dude has been better than that would indicate. His 4.22 xFIP and 1.16 WHIP are much more indicative of how good this guy can be, as he’s been rather unlucky this season. Getting to pitch at Marlins Park is the main reason we trust him here though, with the ballpark ranked as the most pitcher-friendly park in the Majors.

That’s why Lopez has a 2.66 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 8.6 K/9 rate there so far this season. That’s bad news for a bad offense like this, with the Royals ranked 27^th in runs scored, 25^th in OBP, 28^th in OPS and 23^rd in xwOBA. In addition, it’s even scarier with KC having to play this game without a DH.

Homer Bailey, OAK vs. DET

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)

I was tempted to throw Bailey in the cash game play section but he’s simply too volatile to classify him as a cash game pitcher. That’s why he’s found himself in the punt plays but he’s honestly a better option than that would indicate. The reason we like him so much on this slate is because of this matchup, with the Tigers ranked last in runs scored, OBP, OPS, K rate and xwOBA.

That simply means they’re the worst offense in baseball and that’s going to make it really tough to hit in a spacious ballpark like Oakland Coliseum. Bailey has been much better since joining the A’s too, allowing three runs or fewer in six of his last seven starts while pitching to a 2.22 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over his last four fixtures. All of that has led to Bailey and Oakland entering this matchup as a –250 favorite.

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Dinelson Lamet Over 6.5 Strikeouts

A guy with a 31 percent K rate facing one of the worst offenses in the league should have projection of about 8 Ks, not 6.5.

Brendan McKay Over 4.5 Strikeouts

If McKay gets the start, this is probably my favorite play on the board. McKay had a K rate north of 34 percent at the minors this season and faces a Toronto offense who struggles across the board.

Miles Mikolas Over 3.5 Strikeouts

I ate using a contact-pitcher against a low-K lineup but Mikolas could clear this prop in a bad game. Pittsburgh ranks 22nd in OPS since the All-Star break and Mikolas has reached this K-total in 19 of his last 23 starts.

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MKF Record: 32-23

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

8/26 MLB DFS Pitching Picks

Gerald Colvin 5 years ago

written by Gerald Colvin

We have a small seven game slate for tonight, and it is full of poo-poo on a stick on this 8/26 MLB DFS slate.

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Sonny Gray vs.Miami Marlins

$11,300 FD / $11,200 DK

Most days for DFS purposes it’s a good idea to attack the Marlins, and this 8/26 DFS MLB slate is no different. The Marlins are striking out 25.5 percent of time versus RHPs while being 30^th in MLB in both .wOBA (.280), and wRC+ at 73. Sonny has been anything but Gray as of late, allowing only one earned run over his last four starts while striking out 34 batters over 24 innings. On a small slate with little to choose from he is by far the top option tonight.

Dustin May vs.San Diego Padres

$6,200 FD / $8,500 DK

Before I even start, the salary difference here makes this a much better play on FanDuel than DraftKings. On this 8/26 MLB DFS slate there is little choice as far as taking some risks are concerned, so why not gamble on attacking the Padres? San Diego is running a race for last place in MLB facing RHPs just topping the Marlins and Tigers. They are striking out an incredible 26.6 percent of the time versus righties, and over the last seven days are batting a pathetic .180 with a wRC+ of 46. Although May got touched up by the Braves in his last start, in his previous start he dominated the Marlins striking out five hitters over 5 1/3 innings and allowing one earned run.

Jason Vargasvs. Pittsburgh Pirates

$6,800 FD / $7,900 DK

There was a time where attacking the Pirates with a lefty was not generally a good idea. That was the past and this 8/26 MLB DFS slate is the here and now. The truth is the Pirates are 30^th in MLB facing LHPs boasting a whopping wRC+ of 78. The problem is they only strike out 19.2 percent of the time, which could make the K upside tonight a bit dicey. Vargas has a home ERA of 2.95 as opposed to the high 5.23 ERA on the road. Over his last two starts facing the Padres and Cubs at home he has allowed four earned runs over 11 2/3 with a sad strikeout total of five. The upside is low, but the choices are limited. I would take a shot here as an SP2 on DK, or GPP on FD.

Pablo Lopezvs. Cincinnati Reds

$8,200 FD / $7,400 DK

If you really want to take a chance on this 8/26 MLB DFS slate, perhaps Lopez is for you. Just be warned he may be on a pitch count tonight. The Reds strike out 25.4 percent of the time versus RHPs with a low wRC+ of 89 and with Lopez having a home ERA over four points lower, in GPPs I would take a shot here with low expectations. Keep in mind the Reds tagged him the last time he faced him and on a bigger slate he would not even make this article.

5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Winners and Losers: Pablo Cruising

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

We had a full 15-game slate for the second night in a row on Saturday June 15. All point values and prices are from DraftKings.

Winners

Pablo Lopez ($7,400)

Pablo Lopez had another solid start to build on, this time against the Pittsburgh Pirates. He went seven strong innings and gave up three runs on seven hits with a walk and four strikeouts. He has not given up a home run in June. Lock Lopez in as a cheaper starter that can almost guarantee you value.

Lopez’s Outlook

Pablo Lopez has a quality start in six of his last eight games. However, the other two games were complete duds. He is definitely making a strong case to be the National League Pitcher of the Month for June halfway through the month. His next scheduled start is slated for Thursday on the road against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Cards have the 18th-highest batting average in baseball and should not extinguish the fire that Lopez has been generating. A relatively cheap starter is never an issue when he’s producing.

Ian Desmond ($4,300)

Ian Desmond had two hits in four at-bats against the San Diego Padres last night. He finished with a home run, five RBI and two runs scored. His biggest hit came in the fifth inning with the bases loaded when he unloaded one over the right center-field wall for a grand slam. Look to add Desmond to your lineup this afternoon as he continues to be one of the hottest hitters in the league.

Desmond’s Outlook

Ian Desmond is taking advantage of hitting in Coors Field for half of his games this season. He upped his average to .266 and has nine home runs with 36 RBI. Desmond has been red hot-in the past week, going 11-of-25 (.440) with three homers and 12 RBI and six runs scored. He looks to extend his hitting streak into double-digits this afternoon against the San Diego Padres and all signs point at him having another good game at the plate.

Losers

Stephen Strasburg ($10,700)

Stephen Strasburg picked up his fourth loss of the season last night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He went five full innings and gave up six runs on nine hits. He had one walk and five strikeouts. The story of his outing was the long ball as he surrendered four home runs to the Diamondbacks. Do not use Strasburg in his next outing.

Strasburg’s Outlook

Stephen Strasburg is a completely different pitcher at home than he is on the road this season. Including last night’s outing, Strasburg has given up 10 HR in 43.2 innings at home compared to two HRs in 52.1 innings away from Washington. His next scheduled start is against the Philadelphia Phillies Thursday at home. A powerful lineup plus a not-so-good Strasburg at home equals a fade on him next time through the rotation.

Cody Bellinger ($5,600)

Cody Bellinger went hitless in three at-bats against the Chicago Cubs last night. He did manage a walk but also struck out twice. The Los Angeles Dodgers hitters struck out 12 times. Bellinger seems to be cooling off a bit from his ridiculous start to the season. At his price, you could find a better fit that will provide more points on today’s slate.

Bellinger’s Outlook

Cody Bellinger had a rough day at the plate against Yu Darvish and the rest of the Chicago Cubs bullpen. He was 14-for-54 in his previous 15 games, but six of those hits have left the ballpark. Bellinger still is one of the most dangerous hitters in the National League. He will face Jose Quintana, who sports a 1.31 WHIP this season. Even though Bellinger may get a couple of hits, there will be better value on the slate than what he can provide.

Injury Update

Noah Syndergaard left his start yesterday with a right hamstring strain and will be re-evaluated this morning. The Mets officials do not tend to use the word “strain” in their injury report unless the injury is relatively significant.

Sean Newcomb of the Atlanta Braves was struck in the back of the head with a 102 mph comebacker by J.T. Realmuto. Newcomb left the field on his own power and passed concussion protocol and other medical testings.

Jay Bruce is the newest Phillies outfielder to have injury trouble, as he left yesterday’s game in the fourth inning with left hamstring tightness.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

MLB DFS Winners and Losers: Pablo Cruising

Vincent Pensabene 5 years ago

written by Vincent Pensabene

We had a full 15-game slate for the second night in a row on Saturday June 15. All point values and prices are from DraftKings.

Winners

Pablo Lopez ($7,400)

Lopez’s Outlook

Ian Desmond ($4,300)

Desmond’s Outlook

Losers

Stephen Strasburg ($10,700)

Strasburg’s Outlook

Cody Bellinger ($5,600)

Bellinger’s Outlook

Injury Update

Jay Bruce is the newest Phillies outfielder to have injury trouble, as he left yesterday’s game in the fourth inning with left hamstring tightness.

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5 years ago 0 comment

MLB

The King’s DFS Pitching and MLB Prop Picks for 5/29: Miami Mound Machine

Scott Engel 5 years ago

written by Scott Engel

James Paxton makes his return on the early slate against San Diego and would seem rather chalky at first glance against the Padres. But the New York Post has already reported Paxton does not expect to throw more than 75 pitches and Aaron Boone said he will not get to 100. He will not be worth the $10,700 on DraftKings.

On a two-pitcher site like DraftKings, there seems to be no way you cannot use Chris Paddack at $10,100, even against the Yankees, who are ranked sixth in batting in the majors. You may have to pay up because the rest of the short early slate features too much mediocrity. Oakland are no pushovers, but my other choice has to be Griffin Canning at 8,300. He has allowed three earned runs or less in four of five starts and has struck out at least five in every outing. This is the first time he will face the A’s, so that might help provide a slight advantage, especially in a day game.

John Means is very tempting vs. the Tigers on the night slate at 6,900. He has a 1.54 home ERA in four home starts. But the strikeout upside is not there with Means. You will have to hope the nature of the opponent could help to push him past his normal K output. Detroit is fifth in the league in strikeouts so I will take the tournament play on Means.

The Cardinals have been falling in the overall team batting rankings, but they are only 25^th in terms of team Ks, so Aaron Nola will not be one of my top plays at 9,000.

Blake Snell is the obvious chalk and cash game play vs. Toronto and should be worth the 11,300. Pairing him with Means or our favorite value pitcher of the night on a two-pitcher site like DraftKings could work out well.

That favorite value pitcher, even over Means, is Pablo Lopez of Miami at 6600 vs. the Giants. He has been so much better at home, with a 1.93 ERA and 26 Ks in 23.1 IP. Madison Bumgarner, at 9,900 on the other side, may be my top play of the night. I will use both starters in different lineups.

I also like Walker Buehler as a pivot off Bumgarner in the same price range (9,900) against a patchwork Mets lineup. I will fade Noah Syndergaard at 9,300 against that formidable Dodgers lineup.

MONKEYKNIFE FIGHT PICK OF THE NIGHT

Madison Bumgarner over5.5 strikeouts, Pablo Lopez over 4.5

This should be a pitching duel, as Lopez really enjoys pitching in his home park. A former MLB pitcher once told me that certain starters are so much more at ease at home, with all the familiar surroundings making it more mentally comfortable. But Bumgarner will be prolific too, as there’s no road crowd to get to him here. It will almost be like pitching in a neutral park. Play MLB Prop Games NOW and get 100 percent Bonus!

5 years ago 0 comment

Pablo Lopez

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Dustin May ($9,700)

Best Value: Zac Gallen ($9,000)

Contrarian GPP Value: Blake Snell ($8,800)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays (Opener LHP Travis Bergen)

Value Stack: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies (LHP Austin Gomber)

Contrarian Stack: Boston Red Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Jordan Lyles)

MLB DFS: The Aces

Top Ace: Trevor Bauer ($11,000)

Best Value: Pablo Lopez ($8,200)

MLB DFS: The Bases

Top Stack: Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies (RHP Antonio Senzatela)

Value Stack: Chicago White Sox vs. Texas Rangers (RHP Kyle Gibson)

Value/Contrarian Stack: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins (RHP Pablo Lopez)

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots: Slate Breakdown

MLB DFS Picks – Pitchers

MLB DFS Picks – Top Stacks

MLB DFS Picks and Pivots – The Wrap Up

Four starting pitchers being drafted at 200+ ADP that could blossom in the 2020 shortened season.

9/6 DFS Pitching Cash Game Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw, LAD vs. SF

DK ($11,900) FD ($11,700)

Charlie Morton/Brendan McKay, TB vs. TOR

DK ($10,600/$7,800) FD ($9,700/$7,100)

9/6 DFS Pitching GPP Pitchers

Robbie Ray, ARI at CIN

DK ($10,500) FD ($8,800)

Dinelson Lamet, SD vs. COL

DK ($10,300) FD ($8,400)

9/6 DFS Pitching Punt Plays

Pablo Lopez, MIA vs. KC

DK ($6,300) FD ($6,700)

Homer Bailey, OAK vs. DET

DK ($8,500) FD ($8,200)

Monkey Knife Fight Picks of the Day

Winners

Pablo Lopez ($7,400)

Lopez’s Outlook

Ian Desmond ($4,300)

Desmond’s Outlook

Losers

Stephen Strasburg ($10,700)

Strasburg’s Outlook

Cody Bellinger ($5,600)

Bellinger’s Outlook

Injury Update

Winners

Pablo Lopez ($7,400)

Lopez’s Outlook

Ian Desmond ($4,300)

Desmond’s Outlook

Losers

Stephen Strasburg ($10,700)

Strasburg’s Outlook

Cody Bellinger ($5,600)

Bellinger’s Outlook

Injury Update

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