Looking at the entire TNF schedule, this may very well be the most exciting mid-week slate we will have all season! Keenan Allen has already been ruled OUT for this one, and his absence should open up some more value on the Chargers side. Currently we have a 54.5 point total with the Chiefs favored by four points. This one is shaping up to be a shootout, and I can’t wait to get started for NFL Week 2 TNF Showdown DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.
I’ll throw out my best plays, a few fades I recommend (Penny fade was MONEY on Monday night!), and some dark horse options. Let’s cash in and build some bankroll for Week 2 main slate!
We did very well with Javonte Williams on MNF! DK was my other main option, but the Seahawks controlled the game and his usage took a hit as a result. Let’s keep things rolling on TNF!
Listen, these two are the top projected scorers on the showdown slate, and for good reason. Both are incredibly efficient, and neither has a particularly good run game. Mahomes destroyed the Cardinals to the tune of 30/39 for 360 yards and FIVE touchdowns in Week 1. Herbert was no slouch himself against a tough Raiders defense, posting a 26/34 line with 279 yards and 3 TD.
A key difference between the two in Week 1 and a general thing to consider is that Mahomes is very creative in the ways he gets the ball to his weapons. He uses shovel passes, jet sweeps, and everything in-between. In fact, in Week 1, his five touchdowns went for 9, 3, 4, 1, and 2 yards. The upside for Patty is tremendous.
That said, both are in play in this one with a monster total. I am much more likely to lock Mahomes into the bonus spot due to his creativity in the Red Zone. Both KC and LAC were below average in passing play percentage in Week 1 (59.09% and 52.31%, respectively). That won’t scare me away from either, as both teams were well in control (especially KC) for much of the game. KC went very run-heavy in the 4th quarter, as they had already built a 37-7 lead at the start of the 4th.
Listen, Travis Kelce is a fine option up top on TNF. The main issue is that he is very closely priced to both Mahomes and Herbert. I don’t see a ton of value in using him as your bonus option on TNF. I will absolutely have shares, but I don’t think this is the spot to utilize him as your top option.
Insert Ekeler, the do-it-all back for the Chargers. He was a disappointment of sorts in Week 1, posting a 14/36 line on the ground and 4/36 through the air (four targets). Let’s pretend that game didn’t happen. We have to have a short term memory to take an edge in DFS, and this is the perfect storm.
Despite sitting out one game in 2021, Ekeler STILL tied Najee Harris for the league lead among RB with 94 targets. I’m expecting the KC offense to continue to roll in this game, and with Keenan Allen OUT, Ekeler becomes the focal point of the offense.
In 2021, Ekeler saw 16 targets inside the RedZone, and totaled 135 yards and 8 TD. Only Cooper Kupp and Stefon Diggs compiled more yardage inside the 20. Allen was the 13th-most targeted player in the RedZone, which opens up even more opportunity for Ekeler (and more that we will touch on soon). Fire him up as the best passing-catching back in the NFL in a smash spot. I’ll likely have Ekeler in every lineup in one form or another.
Also Consider Mike Williams ($13,500 DK, $12,500 FD) and Mecole Hardman ($8,400 DK, $7,500 FD)…more on them in a few.
I don’t see a scenario where Williams isn’t in 100% of your lineups on DraftKings, and an argument can be made at FanDuel as well. Regardless of Allen being out, Williams is an enormous RedZone target, and saw 19.4% target share inside the 20 in ’21. Better yet? He was tied with Allen with 12 targets inside the 10. Who had more? Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, Hunter Renfroe, and Diggs. Pretty elite company.
Williams is certainly an option up top if you’re a believer in his upside, and I certainly am. Herbert loves this guy, and at 6’4″, 218 pounds it is easy to understand why. He may be the craziest fade on this slate.
Hardman will be yet another tough fade (I am lasered in on a few of these guys). He was tied with a few players in Week 1 with three RedZone targets, and only JaMarr Chase (6) had more. With Tyreek Hill out of town, I’m a believer that Hardman will quickly establish himself as the #1 option outside of Kelce in this offense.
On paper, 3/16/1 is a forgettable stat line for Week 1 for Hardman, and I understand why. He was still 3rd on the team with 6 targets in a game that KC had well in hand very early. I’m expecting many to flock to JuJu Smith-Schuster, and he seems like a fine play. I’m looking for an edge and leverage from the field, and I’m leaning toward a JuJu fade and going after Mecole HARD, man.
Listen, I’ll preface this by saying that I am absolutely NOT a CEH fan overall. He isn’t a particularly good runner, his volume is low, and the KC offense has too many options. However, on a showdown slate, you have to consider him. As mentioned earlier, Mahomes gets very creative (just watch the Week 1 game if you didn’t see), and CEH has upside by simply being available on the field.
I think that Everett is a fantastic cheap play on this slate, and will be going after him to fill in my lineup. He had a great debut with the Chargers in Week 1, posting a 3/54/1 line on four targets. I’m expecting him to be heavily involved in this one, as I do expect the Chargers to be playing from behind. He could easily smash his value and become one of the best plays on the slate.
Palmer should be a popular play due to the absence of Keenan Allen (tired of hearing about him yet?). I understand the potential, but I will likely be underweight and focusing more on Williams and Ekeler myself. he is more of a FD target for me, as we can find some much-lower priced options on DK.
I see Carter as the ideal pivot off of Palmer in GPPs, and unless I’m reading this one wrong, I’m expecting lower ownership (especially on FD). Ekeler is the only back I’m interested in for the Chargers, so all the pass-catching options are in play in a pass-first offense.
Both kickers are in play as always, and are a fine way to fill out your roster. I expect more TDs than FGs, but you can do much worse. Looks like Matt Ammendola will be filling in for Harrison Butker, but stay tuned for updates.
I’m a little disappointed that Pacheco scored late in Week 1, as I was looking forward to a min salary for him here. That said, I believe that Pacheco is more talented than CEH and will eventually find more work in this offense. He is still the 3rd-string option behind Jerick McKinnon ($2,600 DK, $6,500 FD), which should suppress his ownership.
This is strictly a DK play, as Horvath won’t see many touches at all, regardless of game flow. That said, he did find the end zone in Week 1, and is always a threat to steal a TD. He is basically free on DK, and a fine punt if you’re looking to shove a bunch of studs into your lineup.
That’s all I’ve got for the TNF showdown slate! To recap quickly, I’ll be prioritizing Mahomes/Herbert/Ekeler up top. Mecole Hardman is likely a lock for me, Williams is a priority and I’m likely to fade JuJu and Marques Valdes-Scantling. Most likely, everyone outside of Ekeler is a fade for me in the running game aside from a few CEH sprinkles. Have to take a stand somewhere! Excited for this shootout!
Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards on Thursday!
It’s the first Monday Night Football Showdown slate of the year, and I’m pumped to get back into it! We have a matchup between the Denver Broncos and the Seattle Seahawks. Russell Wilson will face his former team for the first time ever. I have some thoughts, stats, and ideas for you to construct the best Showdown lineup and CASH in big! Let’s get to it.
DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.
For me, showdown slates are all about taking a stand. Fade the guys who you don’t see paying off their salaries, and go big, if not 100% on your favorites. We have to find an edge, and I’ll show you all where my head is at for MNF.
Listen, this one seems pretty simple to me as the top play. While many will go after Russell Wilson and his “revenge” game, I’m taking a stand with a full fade.
Williams profiles as an ideal play for this slate at 1.5X for a few reasons. Game flow should dictate a Broncos win, and potentially an easy one at that. They are favored by 7 right now, and their workhorse is ready to roll.
Last season, no NFL team allowed more fantasy PPG to opposing RB than Seattle, and I don’t see that changing much in 2022. Javonte and Melvin Gordon (more on him in a few) each saw 21 carries inside the 10 yard line last season. They each saw 9 carries inside the 5.
Here’s the thing. Williams is 7 years younger than Gordon, and is clearly the superior back to me. He will be the focal point of the offense, even with Wilson in town. I see this as more of a 70/30 split this season.
The risk here is decent, as Gordon could certainly steal some goal line work, and coach Nathaniel Hackett said the team would “ride the hot hand” this season. While I believe this to be true, Williams is the far superior player and in a smash spot tonight.
Nobody is arguing that Geno Smith isn’t a significant downgrade from Russell Wilson. That said, you wouldn’t know that by looking at DK’s numbers with Smith under center. Here are his stats in 4 games with Geno in 2021:
5/98/2
6/58/0
2/96/1
6/43/2
I’m a believer that the Broncos will win this one, and likely win it handily. This is a perfect storm for Metcalf. He is big, fast, and may be the best overall athlete in the NFL at the WR position. He is an absolute freak of nature. Tyler Lockett had one big game with Smith under center in ’21, but DK is younger, stronger, and much more of a home-run threat.
If you’re looking for a low-owned option up top, consider Melvin Gordon ($11,100 DK, $10,000 FD). If Hackett is being genuine about riding the hot hand (I mostly believe it), then Gordon could have big upside in a great matchup at low ownership. Geno Smith is another option here, but I’ll likely save him for FLEX, I don’t see him having massive upside at his price tag.
These are the guys I’m considering at the FLEX spots to fill out your roster tonight. All of the above can be considered here as well, and will likely be locking DK and either Williams or Gordon into each of my lineups.
With Wilson running the offense in Denver, the expectation is that this offense will take off. I’m a little more hesitant about the passing game than most, but chances are that one of these two will take off this season. Neither was particularly impressive last season, but nothing about the Denver passing attack was.
If I’m choosing between the two, I prefer Sutton because he is a larger target that I’m hoping will see more Red Zone looks from Wilson. Jeudy missed significant time in 2021, so his numbers were mediocre at best. I will be lighter than the field on both of these two, I’d prefer to prioritize my salary by targeting Williams and Metcalf.
Russell Wilson is well known for his affinity toward his TEs, and although Noah Fant is a higher-priced option in this one, I am all aboard the A.O. train. He is 6’5″, 258 and can run with the best of them. I think he establishes himself as Wilson’s favorite target in the RedZone this season, and that starts tonight. If this game stays close, his upside is even more significant.
If you are of the same thinking as me here, you’re expecting Seattle to play from behind. Geno was efficient in his four games last season, totaling 701 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Pairing him with Metcalf gives you solid upside in GPPs.
DraftKings makes it far easier to slot in cheap options with upside, and I absolutely love it. Keep an eye on the injury status for Kenneth Walker, as his potential absence could open up some value. If he is out, DeeJay Dallas ($400 DK, $8,000 FD) is a lock for me on DK, and he may make it into my lineup anyway since he is basically free. If Walker plays, he is an option right away, even if he is on a snap count.
I prefer Jason Myers ($4,000 DK, $8,500 FD) to Brandon McManus ($4,200 DK, $9,500 FD) due to his price savings. Also because Pete Carroll is no stranger to playing it safe and taking points, especially in an underdog role.
Both defenses are in the play tonight. I much prefer the Broncos, and think they are a strong FLEX play and have a significantly higher ceiling.
Marquise Goodwin and Dee Eskridge are deep, deep options that you can take a shot on and hope they break a big one or find the end zone. Just don’t expect any volume unless there is a key injury in this one.
I’m taking my chances with a Rashaad Penny fade. He is hardly a factor at all in the passing game, and draws a very tough matchup. I’m more than comfortable having zero shares tonight, but I’m taking a stand.
Good luck to everyone, I’ll be on Twitter @BigItaly42 watching along tonight. Let’s meet at the top of the leaderboard!
We’re bringing you NFL DFS analysis that breaks down the Super Bowl Showdown contests — helping you win big money in the big game!
Let’s start off by acknowledging that the Chiefs are 3.5 point favorites on the road against the best QB in NFL history, and that the chalkiest game script would make Tom Brady the most likely candidate to rack up the most points on either site – especially considering how much the Bucs spread the ball around to multiple receivers.
If the Chiefs jump out to any kind of lead in this road game, there’s a very good chance the Bucs will make a run – and there’s not much of a chance the Chiefs blow out Tampa Bay on their home turf.
There are some interesting pricing options we should observe – most notably the low DK price on Ronald Jones II and the relatively high tag for Clyde Edwards-Helaire on both sites. Neither of these guys should be written off. I’ll be mixing in hares of both backs considering their talents and the long time they’ve had to recover from injuries – not to mention the relatively low ownership they’ll garner despite soaring upside. I’m comfortable using both in 2/10 builds, and one or the other in three of the remaining eight. Darrel Williams may be the better Chiefs back to own assuming a Bucs win, since he’s the more prolific pass catcher of the two Chiefs backs (excluding Le’Veon Bell – who is expected to be available in an admittedly uncertain role).
Considering how bad the Chiefs run defense is, there’s even a chance that I play both Leonard Fournette and Jones in the one or two contrarian builds (out of ten) that DON’T feature Tom Brady – whose last Super Bowl performance (2018 season) was an unmitigated bust: 262-0-1 in a 13-3 win against a stalwart Rams defense. But this Chiefs defense is not the same animal as that Rams unit – and I’m fairly certain the Chiefs would prefer a 60+ point game total to a defensive battle.
The Bucs defense, on the other hand, will have the most trouble stopping Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill – both of whom offer mismatches for contrasting reasons – Kelce for his size and ability to manhandle smaller defenders in the middle of the field and in the red zone, and Hill for his blazing speed and the separation he gets in the open field. Both should be chalky, but paired with the right QB (it’s going to be very difficult to fit both Brady and Patrick Mahomes), either of these players has a good chance to post 25+ fantasy points.
Having the Bucs DST in a stack with Jones is probably the best contrarian RB/DST route we can go, and it leaves plenty of salary for working in Mahomes/Kelce or Mahomes/Hill.
There’s also some merit to playing the Bucs TEs (one or both of Rob Gronkowski and Cameron Brate) in a stack with Brady – and it’s actually one of the ways to get both QBs in your lineup. This is assuming Mahomes does enough running and throwing himself to warrant consideration in a shootout at that obscene price tag. Gronk should be ready for a bigger workload in the biggest game he’s played since SB LIII, and Brate has five or more targets in three straight games. About one-quarter of the receiving yardage against the Chiefs came via the TE position this season, and Brate and Gronk’s usage in Week 12 against the Chiefs (Gronk ran 27 routes and caught 7-106-0 on eight targets; Brate saw six targets on 20 routes) fits that narrative. If Brady’s passing numbers soar, it’s very possible that him with WR/TE/TE could be the winning stack.
We’re not ignoring Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, and we’re certainly looking the way of Scotty Miller for his price – but unless we hear that Antonio Brown is 100 percent and prepping for a big role, I’m comfortable leaving him out of the equation this week. If he’s active, he’ll garner some minimal ownership, but he’s yet to make a huge impact on this Bucs team except as a distraction, and we’ve got to take a stand somewhere. Evans and Godwin are way too expensive to play together along with Brady and the requisite Chiefs players.
Let’s talk briefly about defense/special teams. The pairings that work best for using a DST assume a defensive or special teams TD, so using one of the Bucs RBs with Jaydon Mickens (just $200 at FLEX on DK) and the Bucs DST could work. Conversely, the Chiefs DST could be paired with Mecole Hardman, who is $5,600 but offers some upside in the regular offense on end-arounds or quick-hitting catch-and-run plays that find him in space and galloping for greatness.
Let’s summarize and look at some Captain/MVP possibilities:
With these prices and scenarios in mind, let’s look at some of the possibilities on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
The 1.5x bonus is nice, but you’ve got to pay the piper for it. We’ve discussed Brady as the best possible captain choice and how you can make it work with Scotty Miller and TEs, but if you roll that way in a smattering of your MME builds you really have to alternate some Chiefs (CEH/Hill or CEH/Kelce).
This is also the only site we can utilize some of the DST touchdown stacks (with the kick returners), so bear that in mind.
It’s also the site where we can roll the dice on RoJo or play around with the idea of using the salary-saving Scotty Miller as captain. And since we have to fill six spots, kickers are a little more in play than they are on FD – where there are just five slots.
While things are a little more straightforward on FD (higher minimum price, no defenses and flat cost for all positions) you have to get a little more creative to build a unique lineup. This makes single-entry tournaments even more attractive and means you can more comfortably roster a big-impact, large-volume skill position players who’s not a QB (I’m looking at all four RBs, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill and both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin if you’re looking for a narrow player pool).
That said, I still prefer Tom Brady in the captain spot on FD. He’s got a lot of productive pass-catching weapons, he likes to spread it around, and he’s going to rack up points in about eight of the 10 narratives we’ve discussed.
I probably won’t be using kickers in my FD builds.
A couple more things:
Lastly — keep an eye out for injury updates and breaking news right up to lock for NFL DFS. A lot can happen the night before a Super Bowl, even during the time of COVID.
Chiefs WR Sammy Watkins (calf) had been trending in the right direction and will suit up for Super Bowl LV. While his usage in the big game is a huge question mark, he probably won’t receive his normal complement of snaps and routes. Just because he’s active doesn’t mean he should be a staple of your builds, and he’s certainly not cash-viable. Chiefs C Daniel Kilgore (COVID-19 precautions) was also cleared for the Super Bowl after testing negative all week as a high-risk close contact — but that’s just context. Explosive but underutilized WR Demarcus Robinson has also been removed from the team’s COVID list and will be available.
Antonio Brown (knee) and Cameron Brate (back) are also active, which means the Bucs will be at full strength offensively despite Brown’s previous inactivity and Brate’s back injury he sustained in practice this week. I’m still hesitant to play Brown, and Brate’s DFS upside depends largely on snap count and red zone usage.
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 15 NFL DFS contests!
There’s plenty of uncertainty looming as we approach the MNF contest this week, although it’s not necessarily a question of competition; the Steelers should win this game handily as the Bengals haven’t really been able to stop anyone and they’re rolling out an objectively bad QB in Ryan Finley.
The biggest question is who exactly will be logging most of the backfield touches for the Steelers, who may simply rely on their usual smattering of quick-attack passing plays and the occasional heave to their assortment of capable receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, James Washington and TE Eric Ebron) in the red zone. Johnson has been dealing with the dropsies but is still the highest priced WR in this contest. On the Cincy side, I’m still interested in slot man Tyler Boyd for his PPR upside and rookie revelation Tee Higgins (58-778-5 this season) for his red zone upside.
Ben Roethlisberger is the obvious chalk at CPT, though we can get a few key pieces of the Steelers passing game if we roster the right cheap RB – be it James Conner (questionable with a quad injury), the largely ineffective and boring Benny Snell, Jr. or passing down back Jaylen Samuels. Conner sat out weeks 12 and 13 with COVID, ran for just 18 yards on 10 carries in Week 14, and earlier this week looked like a longshot to even suit up for Week 15. He didn’t practice Thursday but got in limited sessions Friday and Saturday.
If Conner doesn’t play tonight, I’ll consider Snell, but I’m partial to Samuels and rookie RB Anthony McFarland, Jr., — who could be inactive again (like Week 14) if Conner does end up playing. If we get word that McFarland (just $200 as a flex on DK) will be in the mix for carries, I’ll be locking him into about half my GPP lineups. Somebody on the Steelers is going to shred this awful Bengals run defense, but the injury to Conner and the varied nebulous roles that define each of the other RBs really complicate the matter. WRs are still the priority for PIT, but the price points for the RBs are a prime pathway to a big payday.
The Bengals have their own issues at RB, with Giovani Bernard, Trayveon Williams and Samaje Perine likely splitting the workload until a “hot hand” emerges. Pass protection and ball protection – and not talent – might be the largest factors for the Bengals backfield in this matchup. Bernard’s fumble in Week 14 earned him a spot on the bench, but he’s still the most versatile back they have with Joe Mixon sidelined on IR indefinitely. I’ll have one or two Bengals total in my builds (Higgins/Seibert or Boyd/Bernard), and probably never three — though it makes sense to build at least one Finley/Boyd or Finley/Higgins lineup.
I probably don’t have to tell you to consider the Steelers DST and fade the Bengals DST, but it’s worth mentioning as Pittsburgh should easily confound Finley and force some turnovers. Bengals kicker Austin Seibert will get the start, and Chris Boswell should be healthy enough to play for Pittsburgh. Neither kicker is a priority.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together.
DON’T: Go into your GPP builds without a narrative plan this week. Use the writeup and flex list below to help narrow your player pool and find a winning path.
DO: Play Big Ben. The Steelers WRs are too good and the RBs don’t do enough for this team.
DON’T: Forget about the Steelers defense. They’ve lost a few key players but it’s a deep team with plenty of playmakers.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Monday night showdown, and we’re helping you win big money in the final Week 9 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
We’ve got another weird one on the docket for MNF, with multiple statuses to monitor before game time, including the Jets’ highest-upside offensive player in Jamison Crowder (groin) and the normal bevy of Patriots players who’ve been saddled with the questionable tag – no doubt because Bill Belichick can’t help but add some gamesmanship to his weekly strategy.
Ironically, one of the most dubious of 2020 performers this season, Cam Newton, is actually one of the least uncertain heading into this matchup – at least in my opinion. The Jets have lost another key defensive piece (LB Avery Williamson via trade) and should have trouble containing Newton in this matchup. How the Pats deploy their running backs, including how much we see of James White and Rex Burkhead, hinges on the availability of Sony Michel (who has been practicing and could technically come off IR and play tonight) and Damien Harris, whose questionable tag could simply be a red herring and not a real setback for his ankle issue.
Using Newton at captain makes the most sense for cash game matchups, and his upside is high enough that he’ll be the chalk in GPPs. The Patriots will be missing WR Julian Edelman, but Jakobi Meyers seems to have taken over the lion’s share of targets in the passing game. I’d strongly consider stacking Meyers and White with Newton as a starting point for GPPs and cash. Using Meyers at CPT on DK allows you to build some huge-upside Patriots stacks.
The Jets – smack dab in the middle of a season where they are once again being the Jets – will be rolling out Joe Flacco at QB with Sam Darnold (shoulder) on the shelf. Flacco is a man who clearly does not want to be the quarterback of this 0-8 football team. I’m steering clear in most formats but will have at least 1/10 Jets stack with Flacco at the helm in large-field GPPs. I’d rather see them give James Morgan a shot, but Adam Gase is a sadist weirdo who sleeps about as often as a NXIVM member.
Because of their glaring lack of a running game, I don’t mind the Jets WRs here, as they may rack up reception points without necessarily finding paydirt or making huge gains – and the triumvirate of Crowder (double-digit targets in every game he’s played this season), Braxton Berrios (11 targets last week vs. the Chiefs) and rookie Denzel Mims will be complicated by the return of Breshad Perriman (concussion).
On DraftKings, we really have to consider the Pats DST, even though it’s a steep price, and there are definitely some viable GPP builds that start with them up top.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Play the Jets defense tonight. I just don’t see a path to them factoring even if they get a rare defensive TD.
DO: Use Jakobi Meyers in a bunch of lineups, as he’s soaking up the most targets of any Pats WR.
DON’T: Focus too much on the tight ends in this game. Neither side targets TEs very much and while that could change in the small sample of a single game, it’s certainly not a viable cash game strategy.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday night showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big in the first Week 7 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
While both the Giants and Eagles defenses have not been the teams’ main issues this season, it’s hard not to like both Carson Wentz and Daniel Jones in this showdown, and there are probably a few ways to fit both of them into your lineups – especially if we use one of the defenses in the hopes of a pick six. With all the injuries facing the Eagles, it’s not hard to see a low-salary player for them emerging with a viable fantasy performance and being worth the juice of using in the Captain spot on DraftKings.
On FanDuel, it’s going to be very hard to get away from Boston Scott at the still-depressed price of just $6,500 – although using him at CPT may not be advisable. Scott and Corey Clement are the Philly backs who’ll get the touches this week, with Scott in the starting role and Clement likely handling goal line work and about 8-10 touches. Both are capable of monster days if they get the proverbial “hot hand.”
DeSean Jackson is expected to make his return for the Eagles this week and could be an interesting CPT on DK, where he’s sub-$9K. Jackson headlines a group of capable receivers that has seen the emergence of Travis Fulgham in recent weeks. Fading the popular Fulgham might be one way to get some leverage on the field, especially since we don’t have any idea how much he’ll contribute with D-Jax back in the fold.
The Giants will rely on a slightly hobbled Darius Slayton, TE Evan Engram (great bounce-back candidate this week) and a relatively inexpensive Devonta Freeman (handling most of the touches at RB) to move the ball on offense, with Golden Tate checking in as a solid low-price option – especially if Slayton is rendered less effective because of the lingering foot injury. While Slayton doesn’t have an injury designation ahead of this matchup and has more multi-TD upside than probably any other non-QB on TNF, he’s still a risk. There’s even talk of activating Sterling Shepard (toe, just back from IR) before this game, but he’s still a GTD – so stay tuned.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to play the Giants defense, especially since they have some playmakers, Wentz has been erratic, and the Eagles offense is pretty banged up.
DO: Check the injury report and chatter before lock to determine who’s healthy and who’s not. Football is one sport where players below 100 percent can be active and used as decoys.
DON’T: Forget about Eagles TE Richard Rodgers. He’s cheap and will be the starter with both Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert out.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
The NFL DFS season continues with this week’s Thursday showdown, and we’ve got the breakdown to help you win big money in the first Week 5 NFL DFS contests!
DraftKings calls them “Showdowns,” and FanDuel doesn’t really have a name for them other than “Single-Game Contests,” but whatever we call them they require an understanding of game narratives and game theory – which means we need to target low-ownership players that will give us the best opportunities within the narratives and game outcomes we’re expecting.
My picks will focus almost exclusively on finding GPP-winning combinations that have a chance at taking down the contests you’re entering, be they single-entry or MME. While we can’t cover all the possible combos or provide full lineups for you to deploy, the goal here is to give you the tools to win and highlight some names that will help make for profitable results.
If I enter five lineups in a large-field GPP, at least three of those lineups will focus on the most likely game outcome (based on Vegas odds, props and totals), with one or two contrarian builds. As we know, late-breaking news can have a significant effect on full slates, and that’s just amplified with single-game contests. If you have any questions leading up to lock, please consult our NFL DFS experts in Discord.
Let’s get to the game!
Some notes on the differences between MVP on FanDuel and DraftKings: The 1.5x point boost on FD comes with no salary penalty, while and DK also bumps the salary to 1.5x – a crucial factor in deciding who we can and cannot afford on both sites. We can use this to our advantage on FD by occasionally targeting non-QBs to establish more variance and more unique lineups, and on DK it allows us to build more hearty overall stacks when we punt the MVP position with a cheap but high-upside player.
The chalk – and what should probably be HEAVY chalk – is Tom Brady, in part because he’s Tom Brady and he’s the GOAT, and also because the Bucs are lacking their top WR in Chris Godwin (out), Mike Evans is questionable and Scotty Miller is on the probable side of questionable, the plan being Evans will test his ankle in pre-game workouts to determine if he plays.
If he spreads it around and the Bucs attack what has been a relatively solid pass Bears defense through the air, he’ll still accrue enough points to justify having him as CPT. I think he makes more sense from a GPP perspective as a flex, but in cash games we can almost guarantee he’ll find his way to the top in most of the builds.
My favorite pivot might just be Ronald Jones – though we know he’s a risky GPP play given his history of highly dynamic fantasy scoring. The Bucs will most certainly give him touches, and they’ve been more creative with their offense since Brady came aboard. I’m less interested in targeting one particular Bucs WR given the injuries, but they’re certainly all viable flex plays.
Nick Foles is certainly a risk as well but could be the contrarian play that breaks the slate. Unlike Brady’s he’s got a stable of talented, capable and healthy pass catchers in WR Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller and TE Jimmy Graham, and the Bears have been using David Montgomery is little bit in the passing game. If there’s a piece of the Bucs defense I don’t trust, it’s the secondary, but their front seven is one of the best in football.
As usual, we could see kickers come into play if drives are stymied as they get into the red zone tonight, but there’s no need to use them in the top spot. Fitting the main stars isn’t all that difficult given the softer pricing for this showdown.
Remember to build your team based on a narrative that makes sense, and utilize the WinDaily fantasy toolbox for cheatsheets and projections that can help you tremendously with lineup building.
DO: Build a trio (or quartet) of offensive weapons for a team that makes sense together
DON’T: Be afraid to take a bunch of Bears against this tough Bucs defense. Don’t get me wrong – I’ll have builds that toss in the occasional Bucs DST as a flex, but the trio of Foles/Graham/Robinson has as much upside as Brady/Gronk/Evans given the injuries plaguing the Bucs.
DO: Consider Mike Evans if he’s active. Even at 80% he’s an excellent red zone target that Brady loves.
DON’T: Be afraid to leave money on the table. Low-cost options like Cameron Brate, Scotty Miller and even Montgomery have high-enough upside that they could have a bigger impact the higher salary guys you could squeeze in in certain builds.
Now that we’ve established some narratives and MVP candidates, the best way to round out this piece is with a list of my favorite options in descending order, based on overall value (a combo of salary and projected points):
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