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NFL Props

Core Plays for Thrive Week 3

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Core Plays for Thrive Week 3

We’re back for Week 3 and we went 2-2 last week. Losing the Jared Goff yards prop by under 10 yards was a heartbreaker and I truly thought Ronald Jones had one more week until Leonard Fournette took over. Alas, that was not to be. Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 3 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Play – Miles Sanders Over Rushing Yards

It possibly makes me look stupid, but I really believe this prop is far too low and it should smash without much of an issue.

Through two games, the Bengals lead the league in rushing yards allowed. They are also one of just three teams that have given up over 300 on the ground. Sanders only has one game under his belt, but the Eagles gave him 20 attempts coming back from a hamstring injury. He’s already accounted for 46.5% of the team’s rushing attempts and he’s in line for another big workload again.

Core Play – David Montgomery Over Rushing Yards

We’re heading after another rushing prop that would have hit both weeks so far without even so much of a sweat.

So far, Montgomery has 29 carries which is inside the top 12 across the league. He’s rushed for 64 and 82 yards and now gets the Falcons defense. On paper, they look like a solid rushing defense with just 138 rushing yards given up to running backs. However, last weeks game script led the Dallas to pass the ball. The Bears will give Montgomery enough carries here to hit this one. They likely try to keep it on the ground to keep Matt Ryan and company off the field.

Core Play – James Conner Over Rushing Yards

We’re three for three with rushing props so far but this is another exploitable number with a good offense.

The Houston Texans join the Bengals as one of the three teams to allow over 300 rushing yards. Even if you don’t agree, Conner is the man in this backfield. Both he and Benny Snell have 22 carries, but that’s because Conner was hurt in Week 1. Conner out-rushed Snell last week by a 16-3 margin. Provided Conner stays on the field (the largest concern), he should hit this one easily as the workhorse.

Core Play – DeAndre Hopkins Over Receiving Yards

We want in on one of the more fantasy friendly games of the weekend and I’m looking at the NFL target leader for the last play.

Hopkins has one game where he nearly doubled this mark and one that went under. The latter game wasn’t super competitive but I believe this one is with the Lions passing game on the other side. Hopkins has 25 total targets and even though the aDOT is just 5.6, he still owns 28% of the team’s air yards. The Detroit secondary is very vulnerable and Hopkins is going to get fed the ball all day.

Let’s get after it this week my friends!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ TNF AETY Model Prop Locks

Jim Thomson 4 years ago

written by Jim Thomson

The AETY Model has started the season with a bang and a lot of profit. Let’s keep it rolling into Week 3 NFL Prop Bets.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

Team/Player	Sportsbook	Line	Unit Risk
James Robinson O15.5 Rec Yards	BetRivers	-112	0.5
Isaiah Ford O3.5 Rec	FanDuel	+118	1

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 2 Edition.

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It's go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I am playing injured today but I am not letting a questionable tag keep me out. It is time for my second weekly article that will be dedicated specifically to taking advantage of Monkey Knife Fight's prop based contests. WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with ...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

Core Plays for Thrive Week 2

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Core Plays for Thrive Week 2

Week 1 wasn’t the greatest week ever, but it’s a fresh week and we actually have some hard data to work with. Sure, you don’t want to get too carried away with just one week of stats but it’s better than last year’s stats. Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Plays for Thrive Week 2 to get you started into the world of NFL prop plays this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Play – Jared Goff Over Passing Yards

The Rams head onto the road this Sunday but Goff is going to get a Philly defense that I still strongly believe can be had through the air. He passed for 275 yards in his first game on just 31 attempts, just missing his current prop.

The Rams ran the ball 40 times for over 150 yards but that’s not like to happen this week. The Eagles have been a passing funnel defense for a couple years. They shut down the run but get tagged through the air. Goff didn’t take chances last game with only 140 intended air yards but that script changes this weekend. If he almost hit it last weekend on 31 attempts, it won’t take much to get over the hump this week.

Core Play – Ronald Jones Over Rushing Yards

The Buccaneers backfield could turn into a mess at some point. However, that wasn’t the case the first game of the season. Jones was on the field for more than 47% of the snaps and ground out 66 yards on the ground against the Saints.

The Saints are a much tougher matchup than the Panthers. Not only did they get walloped on the ground last year, they kicked off the season by getting smacked by the Raiders for 122 yards on the ground, fifth-worst. If Jones gets another 17 carries, he should coast past this number.

Core Play – Diontae Johnson Over Receiving Yards

Johnson had a rough start to the Monday Night game with a fumbled punt and a quiet first half. It took time to get into sync with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. He finished with 57 receiving yards. That’s his prop again this week.

Johnson was targeted 10 times and got stronger as the game wore on. If he can get to 57 in what amounted to one half of football, he can hit the ground running and clear this number quickly. He only had an aDOT of 6.3 but he’s shifty and establishing a connection with Big Ben. It’s a matter fo time before some deep shots come.

Core Play – Kyler Murray Over Rushing Yards

This is really a great spot to get some action on Murray’s rushing yards. The number is actually four yards under his 2019 average.

He flashed the upside with 91 rushing yards last week and Washington is interesting. Their strength is the front, generating a top five pressure rate last week. They also sacked Eagles QB Carson Wentz eight times. Due respect to Wentz (he would dust me in a 40 yard dash going backwards at 20% speed), Murray is the superior athlete. He can escape and make these plays with his legs that Wentz can’t. I won’t be surprised to see him go over 50 rushing yards here.

Let’s get after it this week my friends!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ MNF AETY Model Prop Lock

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a nice opening weekend of profit and another in Week 2, it’s time for the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) Model for NFL Prop Bets on Monday Night Football! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the NFL Prop Bets the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 2 Plays

1-Unit – Bryan Edwards Over 30.5 Rec. Yds. (FanDuel Sportsbook)

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors! Keep an eye on this article throughout the week as I’ll be adding more NFL Prop Bets as the model sees fit.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 1 Edition.

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It's go time ladies and gentlemen!!! After months of wondering if we would even have a season we've made it and here at Win Daily we are producing even more content for you so that you can build your bankroll in even more ways. This will be the first of many weekly articles that will be dedicated sp...

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets: Stix Picks’ Week 1 AETY Model Prop Locks

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets… It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.

I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.

Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).

NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 1 Plays

Player Prop Description	Odds	Unit Risk
Marlon Mack O54.5 Rush Yds	-112	1.5
Rodgers O252.5 P Yds	+100	1.5
Anthony Miller O39.5 yds	-112	1.25
Anthony Miller O3.5 Rec	+115	1
Stefon Diggs O51.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Ryan Fitzpatrick O234.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Julio Jones U90.5 Rec Yds	+101	1
Todd Gurley O17.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Julio Jones U6.5 REC	+115	0.5
Tyler Lockett O4.5 REC	-141	1
Bridgewater P Yds > Carr P Yds	+111	0.5
Darren Waller U4.5 REC	+110	0.5
Curtis Samuel O3.5 REC	+125	1
DJ Moore O5.5 REC	+110	0.5
Lamar Jackson O219.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Lamar Jax P Yds > Baker P Yds	+130	0.5
Jarvis Landry O4.5 REC	+120	0.5
TY Hilton U63.5 Yds	-112	0.5
Jack Doyle O30.5 Yds	-112	0.5
Tyrod Taylor O219.5 P Yds	-112	2
Keenan Allen O55.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Austin Ekeler O34.5 Rec Yds	-112	1
Drew Brees U292.5 P Yds	-112	0.5
Raheem Mostert O52.5 Rush Yds	-125	1

Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

Core Bets for Thrive Week 1

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

Core Bets for Thrive Week 1

There’s not many things better than a full Sunday slate of NFL football and we are just a couple days away from the first one this year! Now is a great time to check out Thrive Fantasy to get into prop betting! We’ll be going over the Core Bets for Thrive Week 1 to get you started into the world of NFL prop betting this Sunday!

When you sign up, use promo code “WINDAILY” to get a matching bonus up to $250 and get 3 months FREE of Win Daily Sports Gold Membership! That’s a crazy bargain that is really hard to beat!

Core Bet – Dalvin Cook

It doesn’t appear that Cook will get the new contract he wanted from the Vikings, but he’s still going to play this Sunday. Those are direct quotes from Cook to the Star Tribune, so there’s no reason to think anything else would happen. That leads me to be over this rushing yardage, especially at the plus points.

That line is right at what Cook averaged last season. He also torched the Pack in the one game he faced them last year for 154 yards. That shouldn’t be a surprise since the Packers gave up 128.7 rushing yards per game, seventh-worst in football. With Gary Kubiak as the offensive coordinator, Minnesota will maintain a strong rushing attack. Kubiak has been a rush game guru for going on two decades now. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Cook hit 100 yards or more here.

Core Bet – Keenan Allen

I’m trying to not be too overzealous with new situations. Keenan Allen has a new quarterback this year but the Chargers also just signed him to a massive extension. You don’t give the receiver who had the seventh-most targets in the NFL in 2019 big money to not target him again.

Just like Cook, the over is worth more points which I’m happy about. Allen averaged 6.5 receptions per game last year and the Chargers did not make any significant additions to the pass catchers. New QB Tyrod Taylor simply does not turn the football over, accumulating just a 1.5% interception rate in his career. For reference, Drew Brees is 2.3% for his career. Allen should see plenty of targets right off the hop, trying to establish chemistry with his new signal caller.

Core Bet – Drew Brees

One of the marquee games of the week is the Buccaneers visiting New Orleans to take on the Saints. The Battle of Brady vs Brees is center stage in Week 1. It’s always a bit more fun to get into big game for Core Bets for Thrive Week 1. We also have a good prop to attack in this game.

In his six regular season games in the dome, Brees averaged 31 completions. He had a massive 77.5% completion rate and this game is one of the highest projected scoring games of the week. Furthermore, the way to attack the Bucs defense last year was through the air. They averaged 25.5 completions to the opposition, so there’s too many factors lining up to not take Brees here.

Core Bet – Christitan McCaffrey

Rarely would I consider a number this high, but Christian McCaffrey is a rare player and an engine for his entire offense.

Not only did CMC average just under 150 total yards per game last year, he finished 11th in total targets in the NFL. McCaffrey also finished third in rushing yards and would have finished 25th among wide receivers in receiving yards. This man is a machine and will be asked to do everything for the rebuilding Panthers once again. It’s a super high number, but one well worth going over.

Let’s get after it this week my friends!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Player Total Prop Bets | 2020 Season

ddwessels@att.net 5 years ago

written by ddwessels@att.net

NFL Player Total Prop Bets

Sia and Michael make some NFL Player Total Prop Bets for the 2020 season.
You can find lines and over/unders at DraftKings, FanDuel, and Monkey Knife Fight!

Sia’s Picks

Drew Lock over 3375.5 (-110 on DK)

@StixPicks likes this one too (needs to average 211 yards per game)
Defense isn’t good enough to be lockdown so Drew will have all four quarters to throw the ball in most games
All kinds of weapons with Jeudy, KJ Hamler and Sutton and Fant
Plus two RB’s that can catch in Lindsay and Melvin

Kenyan Drake over 1050.5 rushing yards (-110 on DK)

Hate RB props because of injury risk but this one seems worth it.
No major competition for Kenyan (Chase Edmonds is backup)
Arizona continues to add weapons on the outside which should free up more space
If Kyler runs and Read-Option it’ll give freeze the LBs and give Drake the alley he needs to make one cut and fly.
Note Jason likes the value in Arizona at 60 to 1. If you look at schedule they can get to the playoffs. Tough but doable.
Note Kyler passing prop is 3950.5. He probably gets there but like this one better.

Davante Adams over 1200.5 yards (-110 on DK)

997 yards in 12 games last year. Couple of which he was hobbled
2018 he played 15 games and got 1386 yards
GB going to be more of a running team this year BUT Davante is a lock for major targets if healthy. If he plays 14 games he clears this number. 13 games and it’s still possible.
He’s still only 27
Last two games (playoffs) he caught 9 of 10 for 138 and 8 of 11 for 160. Expect a few dud games from Davante but enough huge ones to hit the number

Michael’s Picks

Drew Brees Passing Yards o/u – 4049.5 yds – UNDER -112 (FanDuel)

Hasn’t hit 4000 yards since 2017.
Another year older.
Hurt the last two seasons and Taysom Hill comes in to throw the ball sometimes
Based on defensive efficiency for 2020 Saints offense is in the bottom half of the league (23rd)
Also harder based on 2020 SOS from Vegas Win Totals (23rd)
Balanced run/pass attack, not quite what we remember when they were throwing the ball 650 times a year.
- Last two years: 2019 – 581 to 407; 2018 – 519 to 471

Dalvin Cook Rushing Yards o/u – 1160.5 – OVER -110 (DraftKings)

CONTRACT YEAR
Finally healthy last year, only missed two games both towards the end of the season
Rushing Def against in the top half of the league. If receivers can do anything theyll be able to run as much as they’d like
Stephanski is leaving but Kubiak had the heaviest hand in creating that offense last year.
Strength of schedule is easier than average, hopefully leading to more leads late in games and opportunities to run out the clock.
Nick thinks Mattison and Boone are going to take away carries, but I think Cook hits the over here

Henry Ruggs III Receiving Yards o/u – 740.5 – OVER -112 (FanDuel)

No other wide receivers there…
Route runner not just a straight line speed guy
Darren Waller TE was their leading receiver last year with 90 catches for 1145 yrd – most likely some regression there
No wide receiver topped 50 catches – Renfrow had 49
- Immediately comes in as the best receiver on the team
- Averaged 17.5 yr/r – if he averages 3 catches a game for 17.5 yards he beats out the 740.5 total
Bowden will be more of a gadget play
Never topped 750 in college, but also had 3 other incredible receivers on that team and didn’t need to play all that much in most second halves

Go ahead and place your bets 👉 👉 👉 DraftKings and FanDuel

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5 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

Michael Rasile 5 years ago

written by Michael Rasile

Win Daily Show: The Match, Bundeliga DFS, NFL Props

On this Win Daily Show Sia (@SiaNejad) and Michael (@michaelrasile1) discuss this weekends Charity Golf “Event” between Tiger, Tom, Phil, and Peyton dubbed “The Match.” Sia gives us some bets for the lead up and the strategies he’s looking to employ during the event. Hint: this is for entertainment make sure you’re not betting too much, shop your lines, and bet live!

Rich Masana (@JFan303) comes on to tell us about the picks and plays he’s liking for this weeks Bundesliga (German Soccer) Matches. He made us money last week, so listen to him.

Sia and Michael finish off the show with some NFL News that may effect betting and fantasy line up next year. How will the new onside kick rule change betting lines? Does Dak sign a deal? Devonta Freeman to the Eagles? Will Josh Gordon be fantasy relevant this coming year?! No, probably not. We also have a few props that Sia likes for which QB starts for the Bears, Dolphins, Chargers, and Patriots.

Remember to shop your lines -> DraftKings | FanDuel

Check out Rich’s article going over his Bundeliga Picks and Plays -> https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-soccer/

Listen to the show below and remember to subscribe, rate, and review.

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5 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Props

Core Plays for Thrive Week 3

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Monkey Knife Fight NFL Week 2 Edition.

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