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NFL Props

Win Daily Sports: Monkey Knife Fight NFL Plays 01/16

Joel Bartilotta 3 years ago

written by Joel Bartilotta

Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight. MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($150 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $100 when you use promo code WINDAILY.

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Today I’ll be highlighting some of my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays

Let’s dig in and see if we can make some money!

More or Less – 3.6x

Dak Prescott – 279.5 Passing Yards – More

The 49ers were one of the top teams in the NFL this season against the run. Because of that, I expect the Cowboys to take the air more often than not today. If the Cowboys hope to win today, they’re going to need Dak Prescott to continue with the momentum he had to close out the year. He finished the season with 12 TD passes in his final 3 games.

The target that Monkey Knife Fight is giving us today is a number that Prescott has reached 2 out of the last 3 weeks and 7 times total this season. I’m projecting Prescott at around 290 yards passing today as he has the majority of his arsenal of receivers healthy. More side for me on this prop.

Patrick Mahomes – 278.5 Passing Yards – Less

While I do think the Chiefs pull out the victory in this one, I don’t think that Mahomes gets to his Monkey Knife Fight target of 279 passing yards today. As Adam noted in his Game by Game breakdown, Mahomes does not do as well when pressured. The Steelers have this guy named T.J. Watt that likes to put a ton of pressure on quarterbacks.

If we look at what this Steelers defense has done in recent weeks, it’s pretty impressive. They have held quarterbacks under 200 yards passing 3 out of the last 4 weeks. If we look at the 279 yard target today for Mahomes, they Steelers haven’t given up that many passing yards since week 11 against the Chargers. I’m siding with Less side on this one and I’m not looking back!

More or Less – 3.6x

Travis Kelce – 69.5 Receiving Yards – Less

I highlighted above that the Steelers are extremely solid against the pass. If we dig down deep to see how they are against tight ends, they’ve been even more solid (if that’s even a thing). On the year, the Steelers have given up more than 69.5 yards just 4 times and just once over the past 7 weeks.

There are only a few tight ends with the upside that Kelce provides. That said, this year has been somewhat of a disappointment for Kelce. He had his fewest receiving yards and targets since 2017. He comes into this matchup today having only had 59 receiving yards in the last 2 weeks. I’m sure Chiefs fans will disagree with me on this one, but I think they keep Kelce in check today. I’m siding with the Less side on Kelce.

CeeDee Lamb – 68.5 Receiving Yards – More

If you were a fantasy owner of CeeDee Lamb this season you probably were left feeling somewhat disappointed, at least down the stretch. Although he cracked 1,100 yards in his sophomore season, his production when it mattered most was almost non-existent. Over the final 7 games of the year he failed to either top 90 yards or find the endzone. That all changes today in what should be one of the most important games in his young career.

Monkey Knife Fight is giving us a 68.5 yard target today and while I don’t think he smashes it, I do think he does enough to get north of that number. Prescott should have himself a day today and that will include using Lamb more than he has in recent weeks. I like the More side on this one.

Good luck and hope you make some money today!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @rangerzfan79 and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate! !

3 years ago 0 comments

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

mandrzeje@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by mandrzeje@gmail.com

Ring the bell and strap in for the N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7! To say we’ve picked up some serious momentum would be an understatement after smashing another ten bagger last week. That’s two weeks in a row we’ve had a ten to one come through! Most cappers might not take down a single (+1000) in a season, let alone two in a row! Today’s play is a bit more conservative and only for a single unit, but that’s one of my personal keys to sustaining profit in sport markets; Eliminate the big loss. If you can relegate your game to only three of the four outcomes (Small win, small loss & big win) you will find yourself on a sure climb to profitability. I’m not going to tilt and chase unrealistic expectations on my own small sample. Remember, past performance is no indication of future success.

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OF COURSE ALL THE GOLD MEMBERS KNOW YOU CAN GET ME ON THE WINDAILYSPORTS SLACK CHANNEL ANYTIME FOR MORE TAILORED HELP, INCLUDING ADVANCED RISK THEORY AND ACCESS TO MORE OF MY PERSONAL PLAYS.

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N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

Noah Fant, TE Denver Broncos

Breakdown

The NYPE program was flashing red when I ran the filters for this TNF game. KC has been atrocious at defending the TE position.

64 TE Tgts : Last place
10.7 TE Tgts/G : Last place
46 TE Rec : Last place
7.7 TE Rec/G : Last place
429 TE RecYds : 30th
71.5 TE RecYds/G : 30th

Fant has the lion’s share of playing time at TE, hovering around 69% for the year, and never being below 65% on any given week. Fant is also receiving 10% of the teams total target share in 2019, converting over 73% of those into catches. He hasn’t been a target magnet this year, but I tend to not let that bother me. The NFL has an incredible amount of variance as gameplans meet counter-gameplans. The KC pass defense is weak up the middle.

The main obstacle in hitting this prop should just be target share, which I think we will easily get in response to the Chief’s inability to defend the short pass to the TE position.

I am always 100% transparent in my moves, and have my own money on this Over 2.5 Rec prop. I’m also considering taking between 0.10u – 0.25u on the Over 5.5 Rec (+1306) for a chance at another tremendous risk/reward payoff, In this case a 0.10 play could yield well over the unit risked on the original wager.

General Risk Strategy

I often get questions about betting strategy. It all starts with proactively determining how much I’m going to bet and then working backwards when applying that to my plays on a percent basis.

My daily allotted risk (R) shifts with performance. I have found that reducing bets during down times helps greatly in protecting capital. To be more specific, my standard is a risk of R=1% total stack. After a winning day it goes to 1.5%, and caps at a max 2% after two wins in a row. I do the opposite as well. I remain at 1% if there are two losing days, and reduce to a capped minimum of 0.5% for the third.

Daily Betting Strategies

I’d like to share a few of my fallback plans on playing strategy in case I don’t get to a specific plan on a given night. If a bet is at or close to even, bet it straight. We want to avoid pairing action as much as possible. Sometimes the odds make this unavoidable. Whenever I have two heavy favorite picks, I will pair them. If I have three favorites, I play a small ABC F5ML parlay, and then play all three F5RLs straight, but of course it always depends on the specific odds that day. I do not like to pay any juice beyond -200. I would never play those straight. We must pair, or fade. Any team can win on any day.

Whenever I have four picks that come with juice, I’m usually going to play a Round Robin where 3 of 4 hits will guarantee a nice percentage profit, and all 4 is huge night on a relatively small risk. I also always take a small percentage of daily risk on a four game parlay.

If there are ever more than four plays, I try to compartmentalize the picks, and then follow one of the plans above. A good place to start is to play any underdogs straight and then either pair by length, or by time of day. It’s always a good idea to separate the later games on tickets to allow for chances to hedge and guarantee profit.

Tailor your game to your own account and expectations. I bet small relative to stack, and bet smart. If you can’t make money with $100, what makes you think you’ll make money with $10,000?

I never risk more than 1% on any outcome, and never bet more than 2% on any given night. I scale those numbers down into losing streaks, and increase them again as the wins roll in.

N.Y. Prop Exchange Week 7

https://windailysports.com/betting-2/

https://windailysports.com/the-nfl-dfs-week-6-gpp-picks-of-destiny-6/

John L. prepares this article in his personal capacity. The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not reflect the views or opinions of Win Daily or any of the employees and/or executives of Win Daily. All data and information provided on this site is for informational purposes only. Win Daily makes no representations as to accuracy, completeness, currentness, suitability, or validity of any information on this site and will not be liable for any errors, omissions, or delays in this information or any losses, injuries, or damages arising from its display or use. All information is provided on an as-is basis.

As always, special thanks to https://fangraphs.com & https://pff.com for all the great statistical work that they do.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s the end of the road ladies and gentlemen and what a ride it has been. It is safe to say that we have never experienced anything quite like 2020 in fantasy sports and beyond. Now that we have turned the page on the year that was let’s finish this NFL season with a bang as the Kansas City Chiefs play essentially what is a road game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Tampa. Win Daily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE Win Daily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more. Enough wasting your time Let’s look at our Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021.

This is the point where I usually put a note in telling you to avoid high risk plays so that you can remain profitable over the long term but it’s the Super Bowl, lets have some fun today! Additionally to avoid having the specific plays change minutes after I post this article I’m going to give you players that I like and where I see their props hitting so that you can take the over or under respectively. Don’t fret though I’m gonna have a couple of high risk YOLO plays at the bottom that I’m going to have a little fun with.

I’m working largely with what I’ve been provided. There are many more plays that I would like to recommend today but the player pool is pretty limited for tomorrows contest. No worries though, we’ll cash no matter what.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021

Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Tom Brady:

Monkey Knife Fight’s passing yards are going the wrong way in my opinion, they opened at 301.5 and have already gone up to 305.5 . I know Bruce Arians loves to air it out but in my opinion the only way that Tampa wins this game is by a run heavy approach where they can shorten the game and reduce the number of possessions Patrick Mahomes has to work with. Our model has Brady at 285 passing yards so take advantage of the public pushing the number in the opposite direction.

Buccaneers Pass Catchers:

The side effect that comes with our quarterbacks being so severely projected over what we are seeing with our models is that the pass catchers are also way over what we are expecting in this contest. Shockingly, Mike Evans is only about a yard over our projections ( Stix 68.2 vs. MKF 69.5) respectively so it may be a good idea to wait on some movement before you make a play with Evans one way or another. To this point they haven’t given is any other Bucs receiving yard props to use so I have nothing else to really add to this right now.

Leonard Fournette:

Right now there is a pretty big discrepancy between sites like DK Sportsbook and Monkey Knife Fight where the yardage prop is 59.5 on MKF and 48.5 on DK. I’m inclined to go under 59.5 rushing yards on MKF and here’s why. I do expect Tampa to run the ball a good bit more but Ronald Jones still saw a 54% to 45% snap share advantage after being gone for two weeks. I know we all want to crown Fournette, but the truth is that while Jones is there and not in the doghouse he gets more work than Fournette in running situations.

Kansas City Chiefs:

Patrick Mahomes:

With the expectation that Tampa will try to control the clock with the run game as much as possible we can also infer that Patrick Mahomes will additionally receive fewer opportunities to add to his yardage totals. Our models are giving us a 302 yard passing total. Much like Tom Brady‘s prop on Monkey Knife Fight Mahomes is being juiced way too high by the rest of the public as seen by the 335.5 yard prop. I think this one will likely stay put but if the public keeps taking the over this number could exceed 340 by game time. I know it is ugly and unsexy but I will be going under on passing yards by both QB’s.

Chiefs Pass Catchers:

Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are each sitting at 101.5 and 103.5 receiving yards respectively on Monkey Knife Fight where Stix’s model has Hill 14 yards less at 87.5 and Kelce with 19 less receiving yards at 84.5. This would make sense given the how many people are pushing the over on this game. I know it is the Chiefs, but the Buccaneers have been one of the elite defensed in the NFL for the majority of the season and actually do have the right defensive player to put up a good fight. Combine that with the expectation that this game will be a bit grindier than usual and I’ll be the boring guy who wins with the unders Sunday.

Super Bowl LV Yolo Play:

More or Less (5 of 5) 20x return:

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays Super Bowl LV 02.07.2021. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow me @stoweby and @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Sports Betting

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

What? Did you think MKF was going to end just because the NFL season is ending? Now that we have a handful of NBA games under our belt we have enough data to attack these slates. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving plays for NBA as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NBA season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Quick Note: One thing that you will see is that I will try to stay away from high risk plays. Everyone loves the big win but the goal here is steady growth over the long term. It’s ok to take the occasional shot whenever it makes sense but that should not be your standard “go to” if you want to continue to grow your bankroll.

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7:

Star Showdown (Early Games) More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

The only thing Kyrie Irving has done since the Spencer Dinwiddie injury is average a usage rate of 32.46%, 21.75 shots per game, and just under 34 minutes a contest. In the first two games after the injury Kyrie was clearly trying to play hero ball and his FG% suffered as he continued to throw up bad shots. In his last two however he’s looked much more comfortable seeing an almost 20 point improvement on his field goals. Now you add in Durant missing the game tonight and the usage and shot count will be even higher against a 76’ers team with a 224 point implied total. Over

Colin Sexton on the other hand is the only offensive weapon Cleveland has with the exception of Drummond with around a 25.5% usage rate on 19 shots per game. Now he gets to go against one of the faster paced teams in Memphis without their best player in Ja Morant. Vegas seems to be adjusting to the loss of Ja finally with the implied total of only 210.5, but Memphis is only a 4 point favorite so Sexton should get his usual mid-upper 30’s in minutes. Over

More or Less (2 of 2): 3x return

We talked about the reasons for going with Kyrie above. The sheer usage he’ll get tonight leans me towards the over but with no Spencer or Durant I expect Brooklyn as a whole to struggle against Philly. In games where the 76ers feel comfortable with their lead they have no issues letting Joel Embiid take a breath and in those games he’s lucky to break 30 minutes. His usage rate also drops from around 33% to around 23% on average and he’s only exceeded 21 points once out of the four games where they carried a strong lead into the 4th.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Anthony Davis is dealing with an abductor strain so we all know what that means. Mr. Glass is notorious for sitting when dealing with almost any injury and the times he does go he leaves early half the time after aggravating the injury. If you take AD off the court Lebron James‘s usage rate jumps from 32.7% to 34% and he averages around 30 points per 48 minutes. He also has a limited sample against the Spurs themselves and has scored 26 points in each of the contests this season. Over

DeMar Derozan has also been extremely consistent in his limited sample against the Lakers this season scoring 23 points in each contest with a usage rate of around 22.5%. I am aware that in those two games LaMarcus Aldridge was not on the court but even with LMA on the court there is minimal impact in any substantial way to Derozan’s stats and even a slight uptick in usage and points per minute. Over

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NBA Slate 1.7. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets Week 16

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 16

It wasn’t the best week we’ve ever had, but if a down week is just 4-6, life could be worse. All it really means is this week has to be better, and we have some really good options. We’ll once again split things into Saturday and Sunday bets so let’s get rolling in NFL Prop Bets Week 16 to better the 64-39 record.

Saturday Slate

Prop One – Marvin Jones O 4.5 receptions

Over the past four weeks, the targets have been insane for Jones. He’s owned a 28% share and the only time he hasn’t hit this prop was when he faced off against Jaire Alexander of the Packers. The Buccaneers don’t boast a corner of that caliber and project to trail through the game. If Jones continues to get 8-12 targets a game, he should clear this number relatively easily.

Prop Two – DeAndre Hopkins O 6.5 Receptions

The past two three weeks have been good to Hopkins, with no fewer than 11 targets in every single game. He’s top five in raw targets on the season and Hopkins gets to face a weakened 49ers defense. They’ll be missing Richard Sherman and there’s very little reason to think Hopkins can’t clear seven receptions as he has in nine of 14 contests.

Sunday Slate

Travis Kelce O 6.5 Receptions

This is a repeat prop but I can’t help it. DK is giving up Kelce at the same 6.5 with better odds than last week. That’s despite the Falcons being tied for giving up the second-most receptions to tight ends. It’s also despite Kelce needing just 60 yards to se the single-season receiving yards record for tight ends. Kelce hasn’t been under eight receptions since Week 7.

Mark Andrews O 3.5 Receptions

This one isn’t the best return you’ll ever get but it does seem like a nice one to add to a parlay. Andrews continues to play around 70% of the snaps and he’s the main target to move the chains in this offense. He’s hit this mark in six of 12 games and every time out since Week 9. He’s running a route on 89% of his snaps and I love his chances here.

Melvin Gordon O 2.5 Receptions

I have to find a way to get MG3 in here somehow. The past two weeks have seen him clear this number and now Phillip Lindsay is out for this game. We expect a heavy workload for Gordon and Drew Lock doesn’t look like a good quarterback very often anymore. Dump-offs to Gordon will happen plenty and I’m here for it.

Record – 64-39

Thank you for reading NFL Prop Bets Week 16! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets Week 15

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 15

It was a solid week overall, even though the article last week was hit and miss. We went 2-2 on the main bets, 4-0 on Monday Night Football then another 2-2 on Thursday night (curse you Austin Ekeler). That brings us to 60-33 on the season, which I’m still quite happy with. What I’m not happy with is Pizza Money Bets. The record is not good enough to continue giving picks, so that section will be scrapped for now. I’ll still have some plays in Discord though so keep your eyes open. For now, let’s dive in and try to continue making money at the sports book for NFL Prop Bets Week 15!

Saturday Slate Special

Prop One

K.J. Hamler Over 35.5 Receiving Yards

Saturday is a bit of a weird slate and I wouldn’t spend a lot of bankroll on any bets here. A lot of the stars are juiced to numbers that are a little uncomfortable for very little return. For instance, Stefon Diggs is at 6.5 receptions and the over is -175. I’ll dial back the bankroll and try to hit some higher returns and I starts with Hamler. The Broncos are nearly touchdown underdogs and will likely have to throw to stay in this one. Hamler is playing in the slot nearly 60% of the time this year, leaving him to pick on Taron Johnson. Hamler can absolutely burn with likely around 4.3 40-yard dash speed (it’s not official, but 4.27 is claimed) while Johnson is a 4.5. This may only take a play or two to pay off.

Prop Two

D.J. Moore O 4.5 Receptions

Going by the seasonal track record, this might not be a smart bet. Moore hasn’t been over 4.5 that often but this game they will need all hands on deck. Green Bay is a premier offense in football and Moore is going to have chances. He’s just a tick under a 23% target share on the season. Even if he sees some of Packers corner Jaire Alexander, I feel like the Panthers are plying catchup nearly the entire game. Carolina has a bottom five pressure rate on defense so it’s hard to see how they stop the Packers. In a chasing game script, I’ll take my shot with Moore.

Prop Three

Aaron Rodgers Over 2.5 Touchdowns

I want to be clear about two factors here. One, make sure this is your lowest volume bet of the weekend. Touchdowns are volatile, even for Rodgers. Secondly, if this dips below +100, just skip it. We’re betting it because it’s an underdog and Rodgers has hit this bet 10 of 13 games. I’m counting it towards my record no matter what, but you have to be smart with it. Always remember what Stix says – we bet the numbers, NOT the player.

Sunday Main Slate

Prop One

T.Y. Hilton Over 4.5 Receptions

Well, I’m going all in on T.Y. this weekend apparently. He’s one of my favorite plays in DFS and I may as well hit the prop as well. Hilton has been on fire and has seen 18 targets the past two weeks, not to mention the additional game where he went off for 4/81/1. He’s peaking at the exact right time for Indy, who needs to keep winning. Hilton has tortured the Texans in his career. There’s no player in the Houston secondary that we need to worry about at all. Two weeks ago, Hilton got them for 8/110/1 and he might well do it again here.

Prop Two

Brandon Aiyuk Over 5.5 Receptions

The rookie has missed this mark once in the past five games and that was one that Deebo Samuel played. Deebo is out Sunday, as is George Kittle so Aiyuk is the passing game. He gets to pick on a Cowboys secondary that is in flux. They might get some of their starters back, but that doesn’t really matter. Even Chidobe Awuzie and Trevon Diggs are at a 1.90 point per target or higher. Coach Kyle Shanahan can scheme like few others and Aiyuk is the best chance to move the ball through the air.

Prop Three

Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions

I need some piece of this game and I’ll take Zeus. The return isn’t spectacular but there’s nothing wrong with playing some safer bets. Kelce leads the NFL in receiving yards heading into the weekend, and his yardage prop is as high as I’ve seen it this year at 85.5 yards. Kelce hasn’t been under eight receptions since Week 7 and I don’t expect it to be different now. He’s a monster and I can’t think of who can stop him on the Saints defense. When you have a 25% target share from Patrick Mahomes, I’m betting on how many you catch.

Prop Four

David Montgomery Over 60.5 Rushing Yards

The Vikings give up nearly 120 rush yards per game and will be without linebacker Eric Kendricks. Monty has hit at least 72 rushing yards in the past three games and has plays of 57 and 80 in two of them. He’s in a groove right now and is averaging about 14 carries and 63 yards per game. This number just seems too low by about 8-10 yards for his workload and matchup.

Record – 60-33

Thank you for reading NFL Prop Bets Week 15! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

It’s go time ladies and gentlemen!!! I have some great news for everyone, all of us over at the Win Daily Sports team have chosen to expand our Monkey Knife Fight coverage from a weekly format to a daily format. So now we will not only be providing weekly selections for NFL but we will also be giving daily plays for all other sports as well! WinDaily Sports is proudly partnered with Monkey Knife Fight for the 2020-21 NFL season! MKF is offering you a FREE WinDaily Gold membership for three months ($90 value) simply for making your first deposit on Monkey Knife Fight. And if free gold isn’t attractive enough, they’re also offering a 100% match bonus up to $50 when you use promo code WINDAILY. Click on the link below to learn more

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

It doesn’t seem to matter who Deshaun Watson is throwing the ball to now that Bill O’Brien isn’t their to neuter the offense. With no Will Fuller, all Watson does is throw for 340 yards against a tough Colts defense. Mitchell Trubisky is quite the opposite, he finds a way to largely underwhelm in whatever situation he finds himself. If Foles is active this week I wouldn’t be shocked to find him on the bench in the second half. In either situation I prefer Allen Robinson over Brandon Cooks. Cooks tends to struggle his historically when playing through injury and he’ll get matched up with CB Kyle Fuller which is no easy task when 100 percent. There is no such lock down option to slow down Robinson, he’s the no doubt target monster on Chicago, and he’s getting the bonus. Sign me up.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I’ll keep this short. Aaron Rodgers has owned Detroit and there is no chance in hell I’m picking Marvin Jones or Matthew Stafford over him or Davante Adams even with bonus points.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Nothing about Brandon Allen’s 150 yards per game for Cincinnati makes me thing an injured Tee Higgins is going to do much of anything this week. Sure he make get a few targets and hit that 55.5 number but nothing about this screams over on the Cincy side. On the other side we have ourselves a revenge narrative with the red rifle heading back to play his old Bengals team and we love to target there just about as much as 2lock likes birthday narratives. It’s not just that Dalton is running the revenge narrative though. He’s beginning to creep up to double digit targets for Ceedee Lamb throwing nine his way last week and with all of the troubles at offensive line for Dallas it would be in his best interest to make use of his slot receivers and tight ends more often going forward. Not that Cincy can put pressure on anyone but he needs to stick with what will keep him healthy down the stretch.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

I am only playing the numbers here, 323.5 is a big number even for a QB like Patrick Mahomes and I know people have a hard time believing this, but the Dolphins defense is no joke this season. Ever since they changed their scheme up in week three they’ve been a completely different monster on the defensive side of ball only allowing one 300 yard passing day since week 5. I know Mahomes is no normal QB but they may shake things up just a bit to make things interesting. Robby Anderson is gonna have no DJ Moore to soak up targets being on the reserve covid list and we’ve seen this Denver defense get shredded by everyone they’ve gone up against. On the DFS side of things I’m going to have a little more Curtis Samuel but 79.5 yards should not be a difficult number for Robby to reach today.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting Premium

NFL Prop Bets Week 14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 14

After a clean sweep on Sunday’s main slate, we trudged through the prime time games but still manage to bring a 51-27 record into this week’s main slate. We’ve also gotten he pizza money record up to 3-4. It still needs some work but we’re getting there. There’s no shortage of games and options this week so let’s dive into NFL Prop Bets Week 14 and win some money!

Be sure when placing your bets to use the WinDaily link to DraftKings Sportsbook and all bets are placed using their odds! Take advantage of the deposit bonus where you get a 20% match up to $500!

Prop One

Jonathan Taylor Over 52.5 Rushing Yards

It’s starting to look like Taylor is seizing control of this backfield. He did mis one game to being on the Covid list, but in his last two he’s posted 90 and 91 yards rushing. When the Colts finally started to ride him later in the game against Houston, he helped put it away with back-to-back 20+ yard runs. We witnessed Ty Johnson of the Jets put up 100+ yards rushing last week against the Raiders. There is no reason Taylor shouldn’t hit this mark with 12-14 carries with room to spare.

Prop Two

Sammy Watkins Over 3.5 Receptions

This is a way to get a piece of the Chiefs offense without having to get involved in the main trio. All of their props are spiked super high, but Watkins only need four receptions. He actually has a 15.4% target share on the season and has only missed this mark one time in any healthy game he’s played. It’s no real surprise that Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce command the attention. With Byron Jones and Xavien Howard for the Dolphins occupied elsewhere, Watkins will be in the slot enough to pick on Nik Needham. I’m a fan of getting this as an underdog to boot.

Prop Three

Corey Davis Over 4.5 Receptions

Here’s a fun fact – Davis has a higher yardage prop than teammate A.J. Brown does by almost 10 yards. That’s a healthy amount and Davis has a 23.8% target share this season. He’s hit this mark in seven of 10 games so far and against the Jacksonville defense that ranks 32nd in DVOA against the pass, it should be a fairly easy play here. Davis is not getting the respect he deserves in this offense for the most part and this is the “safest” of the props we have this week.

Prop Four

Austin Ekeler Over 5.5 Receptions

I’m not sure if this is a hot take, but I don’t think the Chargers will run the ball well this week. Atalanta has given up the second-fewest rushing yards to backs and are sitting in the top 10 in DVOA against the run. That’s fine. I don’t want the Chargers to run the ball effectively because that means Justin Herbert will pass more. With Ekeler already collecting 25 targets in two games since returning from injury, he should have plenty of chances here. I also have another semi-hot take for Ekeler in the Cash Game Checkdown, which I covered this week.

NFL Prop Bets Week 14: Pizza Money Bet of the Week

Dalvin Cook Over 4.5 Receptions

Cook has a very difficult matchup on the ground in this upcoming game. Tampa boasts the best rush defense in football as far as allowing rushing yards. However, for the same reasons as Ekeler that could boost the receiving production for Cook. Over the past four games, Cook has gotten more involved in the passing game as well. His target share is 15.4% and his receptions are six, four, five and four. That’s worth a look in this spot.

Record – 51-27

Pizza Money – 3-4

Thank you for reading NFL Prop Bets Week 14! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate

David Stowe 4 years ago

written by David Stowe

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

With the way Carson Wentz has been playing and the talks of Jaylen Hurts getting more involved in the Eagles offense I have no faith that Wentz with out pass Aaron Rodgers or even get within shouting distance. On the opposite side of things the Eagles are respectable in run defense and Matt Lafluer refuses to give Aaron Jones enough volume to surpass Miles Sanders and what should be a ground based attack where the Packers defense is at it’s weakest.

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

My expectation here is pretty straight forward, after a few weeks of injuries the Colts defense is getting back to normal so I don’t see the run game going anywhere for Houston so I don’t expect much from David Johnson. On the other hand Jonathon Taylor looks to finally be out of the dog house and played well against the Packers in his last game getting 22 carries for 90 yards and if the Colts are smart they’ll hide Phillip Rivers as much as possible going forward and Houston has such a soft run game it should be easy to do tomorrow. Deshaun Watson may have lost Will Fuller for the year but he still has Brandon Cooks, KeKe Coutee, a pair of capable tight ends, and two pass catching packs. The offense may change but he should still produce plenty in the air.

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Gonna keep this super short, it is Derick Henry and Nick Chubb season and neither Ryan Tannehill or Baker Mayfield regularly exceed their respective 245.5 and 225.5 numbers on the best of days. I’m expecting this game to move quickly with both teams living on the ground.

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Derek Carr might not get 150 yards in the air today. Nothing on him it’s just that the Raiders are very open about the fact they they play as slow of a tempo as humanly possible. They only pace up when they absolutely have to and it’s the Jets. He won’t have to. Kirk Cousins on the other hand has been surprisingly good these last several weeks throwing for at least 292 in each of the last three weeks and Mike Glennon showed himself capable enough to keep a game close against a week defense which Minnesota clearly is so Minnesota like won’t take the air out of the ball completely tomorrow. If for some reason Glennon Does struggle Gardner Minshew is ready to step in so I feel pretty good here.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.6 Main Slate. Looking forward to seeing some green screens this evening. Any questions about the breakdown, I will be available all day in the WinDaily Discord chat. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Sports Betting

NFL Prop Bets Week 13

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Prop Bets Week 13

It was another excellent article last week, with a 4-1 record on the main bets! After a tilt-fest filled Wednesday afternoon game (Diontae Johnson…WHY???), we’re sitting at 37-22 overall for main bets. The Pizza Money Bets are 1-4 and we need more pizza in our lives. That’s part of the goal this week and we have a fun slate in front of us so let’s get to work on NFL Prop Bets Week 13!

Be sure when placing your bets to use the WinDaily link to DraftKings Sportsbook and all bets are placed using their odds! Take advantage of the deposit bonus where you get a 20% match up to $500!

Prop One

Davante Adams O 6.5 Receptions

I love the Green Bay passing attack this week and we’re kicking things off right. Adams has a target share well over 30% and he’s hit this mark in every healthy game but two so far. The Eagles best corner Darius Slay is questionable. Even if he plays, the odds would say he’s not 100%. I certainly don’t fear him anyways and after seeing DK Metcalf succeed Monday night, Adams over seven receptions is an easy call to want to play.

Prop Two

Michael Thomas O 4.5 Receptions

I have plenty so say about Taysom Hill as a quarterback, but Thomas catching five balls seems close to automatic. He saw 12 targets last game against the Falcons and six last week with Hill throwing 16 times. Of the 42 times Hill has attempted a throw, he’s sent 16 to Thomas. That’s a massive share and the Saints are making it a focus to feed Thomas in the passing game. Anything over five I’d be concerned about but MT has four and nine receptions with Hill.

Prop Three

DK Metcalf O 77.5 Receiving Yards

Anytime I can get the NFL’s leading receiver under 80 yards in a game, I’m going for it. Metcalf has only been under this mark three times this season. One of them, he had two 40-yard receptions nullified by penalty. In another, he had a long touchdown called back that would’ve put him over. The only player who has kept him away from this mark has been Rams corner Jalen Ramsey. Giants corner James Bradberry isn’t Ramsey. Bradberry also has said that if you take away Metcalf’s deep routes, you can contain him.

Listening to James Bradberry casually explain how to stop DK Metcalf made me think of an NBA player saying the key to stopping Stephen Curry is just eliminating 3-pointers. Big challenge ahead for Bradberry, but he's confident: https://t.co/M5Zm4KGPqD pic.twitter.com/VMXqH6vszD
— Dan Duggan (@DDuggan21) December 4, 2020

Good luck on Sunday, James!

Prop Four

David Montgomery O 61.5 Rushing Yards

With Monty getting all he work he can handle, I love this prop. The loss of Tarik Cohen has been a boost to the fantasy value and he can take advantage of great matchups. Just ask the Packers. Detroit has consistently been one of the worst runs defenses in the league all season long and Monty should be in line for 12-18 rush attempts at least. The game script shouldn’t get away from them like Sunday night.

Pizza Money Bet of the Week

Aaron Rodgers O 2.5 Touchdown Passes

I said I loved the Packers passing game and I wasn’t lying. We can get the NFL leader in touchdown passes so far at +190 to throw three scored? A feat that he’s accomplished eight of 11 games? Wheels up.

Record – 37-22

Pizza Money Record – 1-4

Thank you for reading NFL Prop Bets Week 13! Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

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Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 12.13 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

NFL Prop Bets Week 14

Prop One

Prop Two

Prop Three

Prop Four

NFL Prop Bets Week 14: Pizza Money Bet of the Week

Monkey Knife Fight Plays NFL 11.29 Main Slate:

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

Rapidfire (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or Less (2 of 2): 3.5x return

More or less Early Star Shootout (2 of 2): 3.5x return

NFL Prop Bets Week 13

Prop One

Prop Two

Prop Three

Prop Four

Pizza Money Bet of the Week

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