StixPicks 
Well, we’ve been talking about the Adjusted Expected Total Yards (AETY) model that was created in the off-season for NFL Prop Bets… It’s time to let her shine! Please play responsibly and enjoy the AETY edge.
I’ll keep it brief and simply just post the plays the model spit out when reconciling the lines from BetRivers, DraftKings, Fanduel, etc.
Make sure you get similar prices on these odds or simply back off that play. We are in for a long season and NEVER want to force a play (despite what Sia and Michael say).
NFL Prop Bets: AETY Model Week 1 Plays
| Player Prop Description | Odds | Unit Risk |
| Marlon Mack O54.5 Rush Yds | -112 | 1.5 |
| Rodgers O252.5 P Yds | +100 | 1.5 |
| Anthony Miller O39.5 yds | -112 | 1.25 |
| Anthony Miller O3.5 Rec | +115 | 1 |
| Stefon Diggs O51.5 Rec Yds | -112 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick O234.5 P Yds | -112 | 0.5 |
| Julio Jones U90.5 Rec Yds | +101 | 1 |
| Todd Gurley O17.5 Rec Yds | -112 | 1 |
| Julio Jones U6.5 REC | +115 | 0.5 |
| Tyler Lockett O4.5 REC | -141 | 1 |
| Bridgewater P Yds > Carr P Yds | +111 | 0.5 |
| Darren Waller U4.5 REC | +110 | 0.5 |
| Curtis Samuel O3.5 REC | +125 | 1 |
| DJ Moore O5.5 REC | +110 | 0.5 |
| Lamar Jackson O219.5 P Yds | -112 | 0.5 |
| Lamar Jax P Yds > Baker P Yds | +130 | 0.5 |
| Jarvis Landry O4.5 REC | +120 | 0.5 |
| TY Hilton U63.5 Yds | -112 | 0.5 |
| Jack Doyle O30.5 Yds | -112 | 0.5 |
| Tyrod Taylor O219.5 P Yds | -112 | 2 |
| Keenan Allen O55.5 Rec Yds | -112 | 1 |
| Austin Ekeler O34.5 Rec Yds | -112 | 1 |
| Drew Brees U292.5 P Yds | -112 | 0.5 |
| Raheem Mostert O52.5 Rush Yds | -125 | 1 |
Best of luck this week on all of your DFS endeavors and NFL Prop Bets! It’s football szn.
Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.
