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NFL GPP Picks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed Weeks One, Two, and Three… and will continue to do so this week! For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.


*This week, due to crazy amounts of work and late week cancellations/injuries, I’m just going to list out the players I have interest in. Be sure to tune in to the Sunday NFL Livestream tomorrow morning at 11AM EST for further explanations*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

  • DeShaun Watson – Great for cash, great for GPPs. He’s going to be popular, but we’ve been picking on this Minnesota defense all season long. No need to stop now.
  • Josh Allen – not much to say, he’s been going nuts and this Las Vegas defense does not scare me away from Allen at all. I do question Vegas’ ability to keep this one close, but Allen is always in play.
  • Matthew Stafford – there’s simply no one healthy in this New Orleans’ secondary. Lattimore and Jenkins are both out and somehow that leads to PJ Williams being their top corner. Yikes.
  • Kyler Murray – Everyone wanted to jam him in last week but now no one is playing him against 28th ranked defense in pass defense DVOA?
  • Joe Burrow – Zac Taylor’s offense throws the ball over 45 times a game… Jacksonville is ranked dead last in pass defense DVOA. All of the Bengals pass-catchers are healthy. Let’s go Joe for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

    Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins

Running Backs

  • Alvin Kamara – don’t care about his ownership. The dude is the only offensive weapon on this New Orleans’ offense posting a 7.5 reception prop… That’s wonderful. It’s hard to fade this guy in any lineup.
  • Dalvin Cook – On the other side of Houston stacks, it makes a lot of sense to roster the lead back in one of the most potent running schemes in the NFL.
  • Nick Chubb – Not sure this game actually shoots out at all. Chubb is always in my player pool… even more so if Hunt misses this game.
  • Josh Jacobs – The Raiders don’t have many other weapons healthy in this offense right now. Jacobs’ workload is likely to be second to nobody against the Bills’ defense that ranks 26th in run defense DVOA.
  • Jonathan Taylor – I mention it every week, you can run all over Chicago. Taylor’s price is in an awkward spot with Henderson and Drake below him, but I’ll have a lineup or two with Taylor.
  • Darrell Henderson Jr. – 13-point home favorite. The Giants have actually been rather stout against the run, but with no Akers, I’ll trust the talent and the Vegas numbers.
  • Kenyan Drake – he’s a running back going up against the Panthers… don’t get too cute and forget about him.

    Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, David Montgomery, Devin Singletary

Wide Receivers

  • DeAndre Hopkins – Ownership projections for ~5%? I know he’s questionable, but if he’s a go tomorrow, you’ll need some Hopkins.
  • DK Metcalf / Tyler Lockett – they’re the top WRs on this slate in a cake matchup.
  • Mike Evans – Always interested in a sub-10% owned Mike Evans. Chris Godwin is out, so Evans should be heavily relied on.
  • Kenny Golladay – see Stafford writeup.
  • Jarvis Landry
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Will Fuller / Brandin Cooks / Randall Cobb – see writeup on Watson.
  • Tyler Boyd / AJ Green
  • Justin Jefferson
  • Hunter Renfrow

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  • Mark Andrews
  • Mike Gesicki
  • Logan Thomas
  • Evan Engram

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups! Make sure to tune into the Livestream for in-depth reviews of each game and all of the plays above.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

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We always discuss “getting contrarian” in NFL DFS so it’s about time we posted an article to arm you with some NFL DFS Sleepers. Whether you’re eating or fading this weeks’ chalky plays, here are some players that may help you differentiate in NFL DFS GPP tournaments.

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Discord channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify players in positive situations that the public may be overlooking in NFL DFS. If you’re going to be playing a lot of chalky players like Le’Veon Bell, Alvin Kamara, Julio Jones, Michael Thomas and some other players with ~30% ownership in Week 12, it’s never a bad idea to find a player or two that will help differentiate your lineup from the rest of the field. Look no further than Stick’s Sleepers.

Week 12 – Stick’s NFL DFS Sleepers

Mitch Trubisky (DK $5,100 / FD $7,000)

Typing out Trubisky’s name almost made me sick, but here he is. This is a much more optimal play for DraftKings at that price tag – so please don’t fire him up like crazy on FanDuel at $7k.

First off, the Giants’ pass defense ranks 28th in DVOA – yikes. If you take out the Week Four game against the Redskins, the Giants’ have given up 28.89 points per game – which is among the worst in the NFL.

In addition to that, this team is giving up and average of ~23 DraftKings’ points per week to opposing QBs (and ~47 to opposing receiving cores) over the past month! Trubisky’s pass attempts (and execution) haven’t really been there on a consistent basis, but if the Giants’ can score some points in this game, Trubisky should have no issues carving up their secondary and finishing around 20 DraftKings’ points – which would put him at 4x value (on DraftKings) at ~2% ownership.

Trubisky isn’t going to break the slate, but you can easily stack him with Allen Robinson or Taylor Gabriel and barely make a dent in your lineup’s salary cap.

Saquon Barkley (DK $7,900 / FD 7,900) & Golden Tate (DK $5,700 / FD $6,400)

No, Saquon Barkley is not a “sleeper” but in Week 12, he’s going to be under 12% owned… I’m in. I clearly am okay with pairing up Trubisky and a Bears’ wide receiver in my NFL DFS GPPs this week and I really like the idea of running it back with Saquon Barkley and/or Golden Tate.

Tate has a matchup against Buster Skrine in the slot and should have no issues tearing him up. Evan Engram is out with injury again and it just so happens that Tate has had his best games of the season in both games Engram.

Week Six: 6 catches – 102 yards – 1 TD
Week 10: 4 catches – 95 yards – 2 TDs

Tate is going to be the most targeted player in the Giants’ passing game and should continue to thrive in Engram’s absence. You can game-stack Trubisky-Robinson-Barkley-Tate and still have plenty of salary left over for guys like Kamara and Julio Jones.

Kenny Golladay (DK $6,600 / FD $7,800)

Kenny Golladay at 3-5% ownership is something I’ll always be interested in. I don’t love the chemistry with Jeff Driskel, but I’m not afraid of it in a GPP format. In terms of “blow-up potential”, Golladay certainly has that (so does Marvin Jones, so this isn’t a lock play by any means) and that is something I look for when adding players into my GPP player pool.

Golladay should see a decent amount of Josh Norman in coverage and that is a matchup I know Golladay can exploit. Can Driskel get him the ball in areas where he can make big plays? I’ll take that risk this week.

Chris Conley (DK $4,100 / FD $5,700)

Conley hit value for us last week in the inaugural Stick’s Sleepers article and he finds his way back into it this week. Conley may not have 20+ point upside, but I have projected for right around 13 DraftKings’ points. I pick on LeShaun Sims as much as possible in DFS and that is the matchup Conley will have most of the day on Sunday. If he can find his way into the end-zone, Conley should make for a nice salary-saving, contrarian GPP play.

NFL DFS Sleepers – Honorable Mention

  • Ben Watson (DK $3,100 / FD $5,300)
  • Tim Patrick (DK $3,000 / FD $5,300)
  • D.K. Metcalf (DK $6,300 / FD $6,700)
  • David Montgomery (DK $5,500 / FD $6,600)
  • Jaylen Samuels (DK $7,200 / FD $6,900)
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Week 10 was another great week for NFL DFS GPP cashing for myself and a lot of the Win Daily Team. Even the sample lineup from last week’s Stick’s Stacks went off for a total of 191.50 DraftKings points! Let’s keep it rolling!

If you read the article and have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter or sign up for Premium Gold to join our Slack channel.

Like usual, it’s another great week to use 50% or more of your bankroll towards single entry cash games. Please check out my Cash Game Checkdown before you set your DFS lineups for Sunday. Lets get to work on Stick’s Stacks for Week 11.

Sign up NOW for WIN DAILY Premium Gold right here! Projections, wagering info, 24/7 expert chats and more!

The purpose of this weekly article is to identify team/game stacks that we are going to use for an NFL DFS GPP. For those of you that don’t know, a “team stack” is simply multiple players from the same team (I rarely ever use more than three players on a given team).

A “game stack” is similar, except we are going to use players from both teams in a given game. Focusing on team stacks and game stacks is incredibly useful in the NFL DFS GPP environment. That being said, let’s get to this week’s top NFL DFS stacks for DraftKings!

Top NFL DFS GPP Game Stacks

New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) O/U (50)

The Saints laid an egg last week, we all know that. That will not happen again this week on the road in Tampa Bay against a Bucs’ defense that is brutal at defending the pass. New Orleans has an implied total of ~28 points and I’m confident they’ll get to that mark (if not passed it). Both of these defenses are extremely strong against the run, so we should see a lot of the action done through the air, which is great for DFS.

New Orleans Saints

  • Drew Brees ($6,900)
  • Michael Thomas ($9,900)
  • Alvin Kamara ($7,400)
  • Jared Cook ($4,400)
  • Tre’Quan Smith ($3,800)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

  • Chris Godwin ($7,300)
  • Mike Evans ($7,400)
  • Jameis Winston ($6,500)
  • O.J. Howard ($3,600)

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens (-4.5) O/U (51)

The game with the highest total on the slate is always something to look at when deciding on where to get exposure in your DFS lineups. This game should give us all of the fireworks were looking for in a NFL DFS GPP. Both teams have a below-average pass rush and both teams can put up points in a hurry.

Lamar Jackson is a fantasy superstar. We don’t need to discuss that in greater detail. But, the Ravens haven’t played in close game since Week Six, so we should finally see a game where Lamar Jackson needs to make plays with his arm, not just his feet. If Houston can keep this close, this is going to be an absolute shoot-out.

Houston Texans

  • Deshaun Watson ($6,800)
  • DeAndre Hopkins ($8,100)
  • Will Fuller ($5,800)
  • Duke Johnson ($4,000)

Baltimore Ravens

  • Lamar Jackson ($7,700)
  • Marquise Brown ($5,600)
  • Mark Andrews ($6,100)
  • Mark Ingram ($6,600)
  • Willie Snead ($3,900)

Top NFL DFS GPP Team Stacks

New England Patriots

It doesn’t appear that anyone in the DFS community is touting this Patriots’ offense. Both Philadelphia and New England have had two weeks to prep for this matchup, so they should be fresh and prepared to execute. Philadelphia is a clear pass-funnel defense and I expect Belichick and Brady carve them up through the air. This is an excellent stack to get a little contrarian and they’re all affordable.

  • Julian Edelman ($7,600)
  • Tom Brady ($6,400)
  • Mohamed Sanu ($5,100)
  • James White ($5,400)

Carolina Panthers

The Falcons’ defense balled out last week, but I still won’t take them seriously. Atlanta ranks 31st in pass defense DVOA and that is something I cannot ignore. I’ll have some exposure to this Carolina offense in Week 11.

  • Christian McCaffrey ($10,500)
  • D.J. Moore ($5,900)
  • Curtis Samuel ($5,300)
  • Kyle Allen ($5,300)
  • Greg Olsen ($3,900)

Sample NFL DFS GPP Lineup

QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Duke Johnson
RB:
James White
WR: D.J. Moore
WR: Chris Godwin
WR: Marquise Brown
TE: Jared Cook
FLEX: Josh Jacobs
DST: Washington Redskins

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