NFL GPP Picks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” NFL DFS GPP season is here and it’s time for us to stay hot. We’ve absolutely smashed NFL DFS 4 out of the 5 weeks and this slate sets up for yet another successful week. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, for the stack options, you obviously do not need to use everyone listed. You can always just use one or two of those players if that fits your build more appropriately*

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

1. Lamar Jackson – His ownership is plummeting each day leading up to Week 6 and it makes a bit of sense due to their being so much value all over this slate. The AETY Model has Lamar Jackson as the far and away QB1 and I’m going to trust it. He hardly ran the ball last week due to gamescript and a lingering knee issue, but I’m going to trust that he’s good to go.
   
   Philadelphia’s secondary is really banged up and this should be a matchup Jackson thrives in. Darius Slay is still in concussion protocol but is looking like he’ll suit up. If he happens to be inactive (sharp bettors in the US market think he still has a shot to miss this game) it’s wheels up for Lamar Jackson at under 10% ownership.
   
   My favorite thing about Lamar Jackson is when you stack him up, you know who to stack him up with… one or two of the boys below. If you want to run it back with Zach Ertz and run double tight end, that will certainly be contrarian. Maybe Miles Sanders if you have the stomach for it.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   – Hollywood Brown/Mark Andrews
   
2. DeShaun Watson – I’m just a Watson truther I guess. He’s given us the flame emoji on DraftKings each of the last two weeks and we’ll go back to well again this week. This game should be up in pace and offers a ton of salary relief on both sides of this game. With Tennessee as a decent-sized home favorite, I really like the gamescript going in Watson’s favor here. Quarterbacks in high-total games with rushing upside always have my interests.
   
   There are so many different ways to stack him up this week and I like that… a lot.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   – Fuller/Cooks
   – Fuller/Cobb
   – Cobb/Cooks
   
   Potential Game Stack(s):
   – Fuller/Cooks/Brown
   – Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Henry
   – Fuller/Cooks/Brown/Jonnu
   – Fuller/Cobb/Brown
   – Fuller/Cobb/Brown/Henry
   – Etc… You get the point
   
3. Aaron Rodgers – The dude is on another planet right now and so is this offense… not to mention Davante Adams is back and 100% healthy. This Green Bay/Tampa Bay game now holds the highest total on the slate and we need to seriously take that into consideration when building NFL DFS GPP lineups. The educated portion of the betting public likes this game to go over the total and the AETY Model projects this game to have the most snaps played.
   
   More snaps = more potential for fantasy production. Tampa Bay’s defense has been legit this season, but they lost their anchor on the defensive line, Vita Vea. These cornerbacks are good, but Green Bay’s offense and Davante Adams are better.
   
   Lastly, in the BRAND NEW Adjusted Expected Team Totals (AETT) algorithm within the AETY Model, this is the only game that had a combined total greater than 42 points (which is an elite number for DFS production). For those who don’t know the purpose of AETT, please reach out to me on Discord or Twitter and I’ll make sense of it for you. Until then, just trust it.
   
   Potential Stack(s):
   – Adams/A. Jones
   – Adams/A. Jones/Tonyan
   – Adams/Tonyan
   – Adams/MVS
   – Adams/MVS/A. Jones
   
   Potential Game Stack(s):
   – Adams/Jones/Godwin
   – Adams /Jones/Evans
   – Adams/MVS/ Godwin
   – Adams/Tonyan/Godwin
   – Adams/MVS/Godwin/Evans
   – Adams/A. Jones/Godwin/R. Jones (my personal favorite, but there’s too many to type out, lol.)
   
   Honorable Mention: Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger, Matthew Stafford

Running Backs

1. James Robinson – Jacksonville believe it or not, comes in as a top-10 run offense (DVOA) and they’re going up against the second-worst run defense in the NFL. Robinson is currently sitting around the 10% ownership mark and that is a sweet spot for me this week.
   
   There’s so much chalk on this slate and Robinson is an excellent pivot up/down from 25% owned players like Mike Davis, Alexander Mattison, and David Montgomery. This Detroit/Jacksonville game has the second highest total on the board and we need to get exposure to it. You can run Robinson solo or mini-game-stack him with Kenny Golladay on the other side (my personal favorite 1-1 stack on this slate).
   
2. Aaron Jones – The highest total game on the slate and arguably the most versatile running back on this slate. Yes, the Bucs’ run defense has been incredible all season long, but they just lost Vita Vea. In addition to that, the Bucs are giving up over 7 receptions to opposing running backs per game!
   
   As long as this game stays close (it will), Aaron Jones is going to get the lion-share of the snaps for this Packers’ explosive offense and score at least one touchdown (-240 to score, 4.5 receptions prop… sexy). A 5% Aaron Jones is something I’m all about.
   
   Use him solo. Stack him with Rodgers. Game stack him with Godwin/Ronald Jones. Whatever it is that you want to do, I’ll likely sign off on it when targeting this late afternoon hammer for an incredibly chalk slate.
   
3. Ronald Jones – On the other side of Aaron Jones is Sia’s boy, Mr. RoJo. Jones and this Tampa offense have been incredibly efficient when running the football (7th in run offense DVOA) and will lean on their run game here against the weaker part of Green Bay’s defense (25th in run defense DVOA).
   
   If Leonard Fournette is ruled out or limited in any capacity, Ronald Jones is going to be in for a massive workload in both the rushing and passing attack. He is WAY too cheap on both DFS platforms. Roll him out there and enjoy the fireworks in the afternoon game. I would have guessed his ownership would be damn near 20%, yet I can’t find any projections out there that have him higher than 10%.
   
   Cheap exposure to the highest total game on this slate… sometimes good things like this just fall into our laps.
   
4. Todd Gurley (FanDuel ONLY) – I personally am not a Gurley truther by any means, but he sure as hell won us a lot of money last week. There hasn’t been a more active running back inside the green-zone than Todd Gurley this year. This game’s total is well over 50 points and we know both of these defenses suck. Gurley should be in for a two touchdown game and is a nice pivot away from Calvin Ridley chalk.
   
   Although I like Ridley a great deal, Gurley’s multiple touchdown upside can clearly take away a ceiling game from Ridley in a cakewalk matchup. You can definitely ride Gurley on DraftKings if you feel inclined to do so, but I will not be.
   
   Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, James Conner, Joe Mixon

Wide Receivers

1. Davante Adams – Keeping this one simple. No one on this slate has the target share upside that Adams has. I’ve mentioned a few times how I love this game as an “under-the-radar” stack… even though it’s the highest total on Sunday’s board? Wild times.
   
2. Allen Robinson – David Montgomery is not that good, lol. He’s going to be 35-45% owned on this NFL DFS GPP slate and that’s mind-blowing. If there’s one guy to get close to Adams’ target share, it’s Allen Robinson. He’s the easy leverage play over all of the people who plug in D-Mont. The AETY Model absolutely loves Allen Robinson in this matchup against Rasul Douglas.
   
3. Chris Godwin – Everything I read says he’s 100% healthy. If this game shoots out like we all think it will, I will need a lot of exposure to a 5%-owned Chris Godwin. Mike Evans will be out of my player pool as he’ll have his hands full with Jaire Alexander all day. Even though Evans can certainly win that matchup, I’m keeping a condensed player pool in NFL DFS GPP lineups and will lean on Godwin to be my upside guy with Ronald Jones for the Bucs.
   
4. Kenny Golladay – I don’t care how chalky he is, I’m all in on Golladay against Chris Claybrooks and this league-worst pass defense. Golladay needs to be priced up at least $800 more on this slate.
   
5. Tyler Boyd – I can’t quit Tyler Boyd. He’s far and away the WR1 on the Bengals pass-happy offense. He’s priced like a mid-tier WR2 and gets a tasty matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore from Indianapolis. The Colts are a big home-favorite here and that should keep Burrow and Boyd going all game long.
   
   At sub-5% ownership, LFG. Ride him solo or mini-stack him with your Jonathan Taylor lineups.
   
6. Laviska Shenault – I want to say Ghost and I were the first people in the DFS industry to roll out Shenault in high stakes GPPs (Week 2). “Sick brag, Nick… you’re a tool.” I agree, lol.
   
   Now that we have that out of the way, I will have a lot of mini-stacks of one Jaguars player and then Kenny Golladay on the other side (maybe some D’Andre Swift as well). That is a focal point of my builds this week. In lineups that I cannot afford James Robinson/Golladay, I’ll likely go down to Shenault/Golladay mini-stacks.
   
   Neither of these teams play a lick of defense and those mini-stacks are going to pay dividends to your main stacks you roll out in GPPs.
   
   Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Justin Jefferson

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

1. Mark Andrews – Far and away the highest ceiling tight end on this slate.
   
2. Hayden Hurst – this is the last time I’ll write about Hayden Hurst if he busts again this week. If we all expect this game to shoot-out, Hurst should be in a great spot to score a touchdown or two. With the relatively low volume he’s received this season, we’re likely banking on him scoring a long touchdown to smash value.
   
   Having said that, for all qualified tight ends on this slate, Hayden Hurst sits fourth in average depth of target (ADOT)… If there’s any week for Hurst to splash and get a 30+ yard touchdown, it’s this week against Minnesota.
   
3. Irv Smith Jr. – I’m disgusted I have to write about a tight end (who splits time with another tight end) in a run-first offense, let that be clear, lol. But, Irv Smith is so damn cheap this week. I absolutely love the end product of my GPP lineups that have Smith in them, so I want to share that all with you.
   
   Smith is #3 in the qualified ADOT metric for this week and in a game we all think blows up the scoreboards, Smith should have his best opportunity for a breakout game against Atlanta.
   
   If he doesn’t go nuts, we DO NOT need a whole lot of production out of Irv Smith when he gives us the ability to roster virtually anyone we want in NFL DFS GPP lineups.
   
   Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson, Eric Ebron

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

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