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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: TAMPA BUCCANEERS at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 9 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between the Bucs and Chiefs. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

For a deeper dive into general showdown rules, make sure to check out David Jones’s “Daily Fantasy Football Showdown: Strategy for Building Winning Lineups” article. It’s essential reading for anyone crafting MME lineups, as player salary and team dynamics can impact each game’s approach.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

UPDATE (7pm EST): THE ARTICLE HAS BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT WR JALEN MCMILLAN BEING RULED OUT, WR STERLING SHEPARD AND RB BUCKY IRVING AS ACTIVE.

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

TAMPA BAY BUCS

Running Back

The Chiefs are 2nd in total defense DVOA. And that’s propelled by the #2 DVOA rushing defense. They allow just 82.3 rushing yards per game which is 3rd best in the league. Even more important, they allow the least fantasy points to RB’s.

So this is a tough spot for any team, but especially the Bucs who have struggled in recent years to establish a ground game. However, this year has been much better as they average 131.3 yards/game rushing ranking them 10th best in the NFL. And PFF ranks their running game as 8th best and their run blocking as the 10th best unit in the league. Based on all the injuries they have in the receiver room, we do have to think Tampa will try their best to establish a ground game tonight.

The Bucs have a good group of RB’s to choose from. It’s hard to feed all so they typically are heavy on the top two available RB’s on a given night. Last week, Rachaad White saw 56% of the snaps and Irving saw 42% while Tucker saw just 10%. This was similar in Week 7 as well, when the group saw a 48/35/20 split. White doesn’t carry an injury tag so he’s the clear top choice. Keep an eye on Irving, as he has a toe injury he’s dealing with, but he was able to suit up last week and they anticipate he will again. If he’s out, Tucker would shoot up my lists as his price is the best of the group.

Tier 1: Rachaad White, Bucky Irving

Tier 2:

Value: Sean Tucker

Wide Receiver

This is one of the toughest spots to project based on the injuries to Tampa’s WR’s and the youth of the ones playing tonight. Sterling Shepard is the veteran of the group, but he is dealing with a hamstring injury and is questionable tonight. Jalen McMillan is the rookie 3rd round pick from Washington. And filled in the #1 role last week accounting for 4 catches and 35 yards on 7 targets. But he tweaked a hamstring on Saturday and is questionable for tonight. Leaving us with Tre Palmer who is a 2nd year player from Nebraska. Palmer reeled in just 2 catches last week for 29 yards.

There are two dark horses too, in Ryan Miller (41% snaps last week) and Rakim Jarrett (2nd on team with 58 yards last week). We do know Tampa will likely pass a lot, as Baker averages 35.5 pass attempts per game. The tricky part is to find out where those targets will go.

Health will determine my favorite target here, but as of this writing I lean Jalen McMillan as I’m optimistic his injury was minor. From there, I’ll get Palmer involved but also look at Jarrett and Miller as low owned “high-risk” options. I tend to avoid Shepard in most of my lineups as his injury seems more severe and he hasn’t taken over a high role, which he should have based on his experience.

UPDATE: I’ve now moved Sterling Shepard up higher due to McMillan’s injury. At this point, I actually like Rakim Jarrett the most of all Tampa WR’s based on his upside and price.

Tier 1: ~~Jalen McMillan~~, Tre Palmer, Sterling Shepard

Tier 2: Rakim Jarrett

Punts: Ryan Miller

Tight End

Not much analysis needed here. Cade Otton should be considered for most if not all your lineups tonight. KC’s weakness on defense is covering TE’s. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards to TE’s (566) and the 2nd most fantasy points. Cade Otton has seen 10 targets in each of the past two games. He is Baker’s favorite receiver right now and they’ll find ways to get him the ball. Let’s just hope he doesn’t hang him out to dry and get him injured as I’ve seen him do in the past few weeks.

Tier 1: Cade Otton

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Running Back

It’s crazy to think Kareem Hunt has become RB1 for the Chiefs. A prior standout in KC, he all but lost his job in the NFL all to be picked up off the shelf and reused due to injuries in the backfield. In the last two weeks, he’s seen 64% and 58% of the snaps. But he’s seen 82% and 84% of the touches in those weeks. He’s the guy, no questions asked.

Tampa has been very bad against the pass, especially of late. And that has likely inflated their rushing stats as they rank the 10th best rushing defense according to DVOA. But they allow the 13th most rushing yards per game at 131.6. And more importantly, they allow the highest yards per carry at 5.2. This is a sneaky good spot for a CPT tonight because people will be looking at the poor pass defense on Tampa.

Tier 1: Kareem Hunt

Tier 2: Samaje Perine

Wide Receiver

The Chiefs will need to get their passing game going if they want to win a 3rd straight Super Bowl. They are 11th overall in the NFL with 225.9 yards/game passing. Going back to 2019, they’ve been ranked:

2019: 281.1/game (5th)
2020: 303.4/game (1st)
2021: 281.8/game (4th)
2022: 297.8/game (1st)
2023: 246.4/game (6th)

So this is a trend that is working backwards for KC. And by losing Rashee Rice they have a big hole in the explosive plays department. Which means Xavier Worthy, and newly acquired D’Andre Hopkins must step up. And they should be able to tonight against a pass defense that is ranked 17th in pass defense DVOA. More importantly they allow the 4th most yards at 248.9/game. And in the last 2 weeks they’ve allowed Lamar Jackson and Kirk Cousins to throw for 9 TD’s and 0 INT’s.

My favorite of the group is Worthy and he’s (almost) always good for rushing yards as well as his typical 4-6 catches. Justin Watson saw 76% of the snaps last week and had a season high 3 catches so he’s worth a chance as a low-owned WR in some lineups. They tend to give him 1-2 shots downfield per game.

Tier 1: Xavier Worthy

Tier 2: D’Andre Hopkins

Cheap Options: Justin Watson

Tight End

Travis Kelce got back to Travis Kelce things last week. And shouldn’t that have been expected as he simply owns the Raiders? Tampa is bad against TE’s too, allowing the 6th most fantasy points to that position. Combine that with Jason Kelce’s antics this weekend and the bright lights of MNF and we have a great spot for one of the games best showmen.

Chiefs are deploying more 2 TE sets and Noah Gray has 7 catches in the past two games. So he’s worth a longshot look too.

Tier 1: Travis Kelce

Tier 2: Noah Gray

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Kareem Hunt or Travis Kelce. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they can make plays with their legs. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Cade Otton but I also like Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce, Xavier Worthy and Rachaad White.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Kareem Hunt, Travis Kelce

FDMVP Tier 2: Cade Otton, Xavier Worthy, Patrick Mahomes

FDMVP Tier 3: Baker Mayfield, Rachaad White

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Cade Otton, Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt

DK CPT Tier 2: Patrick Mahomes, Xavier Worthy

DK CPT Tier 3: Rachaad White, D’Andre Hopkins, Baker Mayfield

DK CPT Punt: ~~Jalen McMillan~~, Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Cade Otton
Kareem Hunt
Travis Kelce
Patrick Mahomes
Xavier Worthy
Baker Mayfield
Rachaad White
Bucky Irving
~~Jalen McMillan~~

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

~~Bucky Irving (questionable)~~
Tre Palmer
Rakim Jarrett
D’Andre Hopkins
Justin Watson
Chiefs D
Noah Gray
Harrison Butker
Chase McLaughlin

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Ryan Miller
~~Sean Tucker~~
~~Rakim Jarrett~~

Best Rules for the slate:

The TE’s rule tonight. KC allows the 2nd most fantasy points to TE’s and Tampa allows the 6th most.
Kareem Hunt has seen 22 touches and 27 touches in the past 2 weeks alone. I could see another heavy workload tonight against a Bucs D that allows the highest yards per carry in the NFL.
There has been rain in KC today but it looks to be clearing out by game time. I don’t think weather will be a factor.
I like Xavier Worthy the most out of all WR’s tonight. He’s TD possibility from anywhere on the field.
D’Andre Hopkins is getting slowly worked into the offense. I see him with TD equity tonight, as he’s a target in the redzone. But I don’t think he’ll have a high volume game as he still needs time to build a relationship with Mahomes.
Speaking of Chiefs WR’s, I like Justin Watson a lot tonight. The Bucs have been vulnerable against the pass and Watson is always due for 1-2 deep shots.
As for Tampa WR’s, Jalen McMillan is a 3rd round pick out of Washington. You might have heard, but they made the College Football Championship last year with an elite passing game. He’s their best WR if healthy. If he does take the field, I’ll have some shares of McMillan across my lineups.
- NOTE: McMillan is out. Shepard has the most NFL experience and will likely be a redzone target for Mayfield. I have him ranked as top Bucs WR with Jarrett, Palmer, and Miller following him in that order.
I like Rachaad White in the passing game but not the running game tonight. He’s a tick ahead of Irving in snap count and touches.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is 46.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
The Chiefs D is in play as they rank in the top 6 in many defensive metrics.

Favorite prop for the game: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 Int’s (-160)

Now that you finished reading the MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 9

Joe DiCarlo 6 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

And we are back for another week of a Main Slate to break down as we move through halfway of the season. So many gems were in last week’s article that would’ve skyrocketed you up the pay lines if they were locked in your lineups. From our punts like Cedric Tillman and Jameis Winston to our pay-up plays of AJ Brown and Jalen Hurts, all produced 4 times or more their salaries. On to Week 9. Only two teams are on bye so we have 12 games on the menu tonight. Let’s get to the digging, Week 9 Breakdown here we go!

Stay tuned for all our injury news, updates, and Discord-building advice. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 11/3/24

Broncos @ Ravens (-9) (O/U 42)

We kick off the slate with a battle between two AFC playoff contenders as Denver heads over to the East Coast to take on the Ravens. Both teams sit at 5-3 and their records speak for themselves. Built on tough defenses and running the football, The Ravens and Broncos may have to switch their strategies to pull out a victory.

The last domino fell this week in the wide receiver sweepstakes as Baltimore acquired Diontae Johnson via trade with the Panthers. Although Johnson’s fantasy value will take a now being a part of a crowded Ravens’ receiving room, Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry will be even more effective in the run game. The Broncos led by Patrick Surtain are ranked third overall and fourth defending the pass. Diontae Johnson is another weapon to distract opposing defenses away from the NFL’s number one running offense. Lamar and Henry stay in the cash game conversation.

Baltimore also has the number-one-ranked rushing defense, which only allows 69 yards per game. Bo Nix will need to fully rely on his arm in this game, which shouldn’t be a problem as he ranks first in the league with deep ball attempts (37). His 20-plus fantasy points in two of his last three games are in trouble, so Denver will focus on Nix to get the ball out and attack Baltimore’s 31st-ranked secondary. GPPs welcome Courtland Sutton, Javonte Williams, and company.

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry

GPP: Bo Nix, Javonte Williams, Courtland Sutton, Devaughn Vele, Troy Franklin, Mark Andrews

Dolphins @ Bills (-6) (O/U 49)

A rivalry in the AFC East emerges in Buffalo as the Bills host the Miami Dolphins team in their second matchup of the year. The Bills have a stranglehold on the division at 6-2 and will look to widen the margin against a Dolphins team that has struggled on both sides of the ball all year since Tua went down in Week 2.

The chemistry keeps building in Buffalo between Josh Allen and his revamped receiving room. Six to seven players are targeted in Allen’s last three contests, which again will be a headache for Miami defensive coordinators. Deciding on a Bills receiver will be tricky for DFS, so a safer approach would be to use a naked Josh Allen or James Cook. Miami is 21st in DVOA to opposing running backs, which sets the stage for another decent performance for Allen and Cook.

Miami was back to full strength with Tua back in the lineup, and what a shot in the arm for the offense as they put up 27 points against the Cardinals last week. It shouldn’t get too cold this Sunday up in Buffalo, which gives the Dolphins a chance for a shot at stealing a win on the road. If Miami can continue to force De’Von Achane and the running game, it could be finally a return of Tyreek Hill to DFS relevance. The Bills rank 31st in defending opposing backs, in a game with an implied total of 49, Achane, Hill, and Tua a week removed from IR make great GPP options.

Cash: Josh Allen, De’Von Achane, James Cook

GPP: Tyreek Hill, Tua Tagovailoa, Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, Jaylen Waddle

Commanders @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

Next, we have an NFC East matchup between the division-leading 6-2 Commanders and the struggling 2-6 Giants. Washington will aim to keep its momentum moving after last week’s Hail Mary victory against Chicago. Big Blue is singing the Blues these days as they have dropped three of their last four games and become the division’s bottom feeders. But it’s a divisional game with plenty of football left in the season, so expect New York to come out with some spunk.

Jayden Daniels played with a bruised rib in last week’s victory against the Bears, and he is trending towards suiting up again at MetLife Stadium. He’ll be a risky play for DFS at his salary, along with his receiving core especially after being held to just 13 fantasy points with zero touchdowns in Week 2 against New York. The Washington running game is what cashed in their first meeting with both Brian Robinson and Austin Ekeler combining for over 200 total yards. Their defense has also stepped up along the season (11th ranked overall), so for DFS they are a full go against bumbling blue.

The Giants were humiliated in Pittsburgh on Monday Night, but there was one bright spot… Tyrone Tracy Jr. The rookie ran for 145 yards at over 7 YPC, with a touchdown. Although Devin Singletary is still in the mix, Tracy saw 20 carries and is the preferred back for coach Brian Dabol, so long as he clears concussion protocols. The Giants’ other rookie number four overall pick Malik Nabers should again see plenty of volume averaging 12 targets per game. He lit up the sky in Washington back in Week 2 for 31 DK fantasy points, so let’s bring him back for another shot in DFS for Week 9.

Cash: Malik Nabers, Brian Robinson (if healthy)

GPP: Jayden Daniels, Terry McLaurin, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (if he plays), Commanders DST, Austin Ekeler

Raiders @ Bengals (-7) (O/U 46.5)

The Bengals hungry to stay in the playoff race will host the lowly Raiders who still are playing with no identity here in Week 9. The Bengals sit in a perfect landing spot to bounce back after taking one on the chin last week from Philly, as a clear favorite in this matchup. There will be some notable names missing from this game, so let’s fill you in with the details.

Starting wide receiver Tee Higgins and running back Zack Moss are listed as doubtful going into the weekend, which usually means a big no-no for DFS even if they miraculously suit up. Having this news, it will be the Chase and Chase show for Cincy, as Ja’Marr Chase and Chase Brown will have a full plate of reps and volume this weekend. Other players to step up will be Andrei Iosivas, Trent Irwin, and Mike Gesicki for Joe Burrow to pepper in the Bengals’ pass-first offense. A nice matchup all around for the team as Vegas’ 26th-ranked offense will provide plenty of extra scoring opportunities.

The Raiders will get back Jakobi Meyers at receiver for Gardner Minshew, who will need all the help he can get. At this point in the season, the players are looking to keep their jobs for next season. Running back Alexander Mattison has been consistent and has taken over the lead role, Cincinnati allows close to 140 yards per game so he can be a GPP candidate. Meyers and Mattison are the only Vegas show in town this weekend, so if you’re looking for leverage in tournaments look no further.

Cash: Ja”Maar Chase, Chase Brown, Bengals DST, Joe Burrow

GPP: Andrei Iosivas, Trent Irwin, Mike Gesicki, Jakobi Meyers, Alexander Mattison

Cowboys @ Falcons (-3) (O/U 52)

Now this is more like it. A 52 total indoors featuring two teams that are not afraid to throw the football. The Cowboys hit the road and will be eager to not drop their third straight game, but the Falcons will be a tall order. Atlanta wants to go back-to-back wins to keep up and stay in first place in the division against Tampa. The high total will draw the field over for ownership, so let’s check it out.

Dallas’ porous defense will be on stage this Sunday, who desperately will miss Micah Parsons, DaRon Bland, and Trevon Diggs once again. It will be a blood bath on the astroturf, as this fully healthy and weaponized offense led by Kirk Cousins could be the highest-scoring team on the slate, and all safe for cash. The Cowboys rank 31st against the run and 29th against the pass allowing 7.2 yards per attempt and 154 rushing yards per game.

Since the Cowboys will not be able to defend, they should be behind in the second half. Prescott will hopefully go back to where his bread is buttered with CeeDee Lamb (13 REC/146 YDS/2 TDS in Week 8) to keep up the pace, as they have no clear second option in Dallas. Atlanta can be thrown on too so no worries, their DVOA is 23rd to its wideouts. If you don’t choose Lamb, go for tight end Jake Ferguson who saw eight targets against San Fran last week. All three are GPPs except for Lamb who can go cash too.

Cash: CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Rico Dowdle, Jake Ferguson, Darnell Mooney

Chargers @ Browns (+1.5) (O/U 43)

LA hopes to stay in contention while in the aggressive AFC West and steal a win on the road from the new and improved Cleveland Browns. The lights will all be on quarterback Jameis Winston after his incredible 334 yards, 3 touchdown performance to defeat the first-place Ravens. Can lightning strike again in Cleveland? It will be a stretch against the number-one-ranked defense in points allowed, but anything can happen.

LA continues to ride the coattails of JK Dobbins, who had another touchdown scored against New Orleans. He’s been their go-to guy, especially with the injury to Gus Edwards. But finally, we get to mention Justin Herbert in the Breakdown, who threw the ball 32 times last week. He’ll get Quentin Johnston back from a bum ankle alongside Ladd McConkey, which should help pad his stats. With all the injuries on defense including Joey Bosa entering the contest questionable, if Jameis has another big day, Herbert may have to keep up.

Winston was the talk of the town in the NFL and has the red carpet rolled out for him as comeback player of the year if he keeps up this type of play. Cedric Tillman became his preferred receiver of choice, catching seven for 99 yards and two touchdowns. Tight end David Njoku was also on the receiving end of his scores, but with Winston, everyone is in play who is on the field. Again, It’s the Chargers’ defense so buyers beware if they show up. All are GPP options, including the LA DST if you feel Winston goes back to some of his old ways.

Cash: None

GPP: Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, David Njoku, Cedric Tillman, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, JK Dobbins, LAC DST

Saints @ Panthers (+7.5) (O/U 43.5)

Well, we’ve reached rock bottom of the slate as the 2-6 Saints take on the 1-7 Panthers in a game to decide who is the worst of the worst. New Orleans has an injury report that looks like a grocery list, and the Panthers are starting Bryce Young again over a healthy Andy Dalton. Both teams are horrendous on defense, which is a cheat code for fantasy riches. I am locked into this game for tournaments since the low total may sway ownership away, a potential sleeper… so let’s dive in.

Derek Carr is finally back in the mix after a four-game oblique injury, which is a sigh of relief for the offense in New Orleans. What a matchup to help ease him back into game form too, as Carolina ranks dead last in overall defense. Chris Olave is the last of the Mohicans of Saints’ starting wideouts, who had a stud-like game last week ( 8 REC/107 YDS). Both are solid for cash along with their lone soldier at running back Alvin Kamara since no one else is healthy in their backfield. The rest of them can be slid into tournaments, see below in bold…

Bryce Young is the cheapest starting quarterback on DraftKings at $4,400, yet he put up over 15 fantasy points against Denver last week, but that was in garbage time. Still, that’s nearly four times his salary, rolling the dice on Young one more time against a Saints defense that will be without defensive backs Marshon Lattimore and Kool-Aid McKinstry would be very tempting for DFS. The departure of Diontae Johnson causes Xavier Legette to become Carolina’s alpha by default followed by Jalen Coker and Jonathan Mingo. All are GPP targets, along with running back Chuba Hubbard who gets another full workload against a Saints defense that allows 143 yards per game on the ground.

Cash: Chris Olave, Derek Carr, Alvin Kamara, Chuba Hubbard

GPP: Bryce Young, Xavier Legette, Cedrick Wilson, Mason Tipton, Juwan Johnson, Taysom Hill, Jonathan Mingo, Jalen Coker

Patriots @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 38)

A possible stinker on the slate. Mason Rudolph gets the call as the Titans will host the Pats with a concussion-free Drake Maye. Just on the total and these teams’ records alone I would say either defense would be safe to use in lineups. However, taking some ownership of some of the skill players in this one is a slick spot to get different in tournaments. Let’s take a look and see.

Rudolph did well in garbage time last week against Detroit scoring 21 fantasy points, and has a small chance to replicate it again if this game gets sloppy. The Pats will allow opponents to move the chains (223 PaYDS/game, 133 RuYDS./game), giving the Titan’s top playmakers Calvin Ridley and Tony Pollard plenty of optimism to ball out. Pollard has not practiced all week and Tyjae Spears is out, so if you are feeling frisky take the min-priced Julius Chestnut. If Pollard bows out from his foot, you’ll see 20 carries from a $4K back on DraftKings.

Last weekend we witnessed the Lions put 34 points up on the Titans by halftime, so it is safe to say they’ll be out to prove a point on defense this weekend. But if the Pats can score half of that 52 then we should see some value out of them. Rookie Drake Maye, Rhamondre Stevenson, and DeMario Douglas are all tournament plays against a Titans team that’s 28th in the league in points allowed per game (26.3)

Cash: Patriots DST, Titans DST

GPP: Drake Maye, Masin Rudolph, Rhamondre Stevenson, Calvin Ridley, Demario Douglas, Hunter Henry, Tony Pollard, Julius Chestnut

Jaguars @ Eagles (-7.5) (O/U 45.5)

This game has a blowout script written all over it. The Jags were bad enough as it is defensively (29th overall), but now their offense has taken a hit from injuries. Philadelphia on the other hand looked unstoppable in Cincinnati racking up 37 points on the road to defeat the Bengals. The Eagles are back at home and Jacksonville may have their work cut out for them, here’s why.

Trevor Lawrence’s 62% completion ratio up against a top-ten Eagles’ defense on the road, plus injuries to the offensive skill players are just too many red flags this week for the Jags. Christian Kirk was lost for the season this week due to a collarbone fracture, and everybody else is questionable except Evan Engram. Engram may be in store for a ton of targets this weekend as the only fully Jaguar suiting up to catch the football. Keep an eye on reports on the rest of the team closer to game time.

Jalen Hurts gave you 37 fantasy points last week and could very well do it again at home. He is true to padding his stats and will take every opportunity to light up the boxscore at home. Play all your Eagles connected to him, especially Barkley this time out as he will face a Jaguars’ 28th in DVOA to opposing running backs. Jacksonville allows close to 28 points per game on the season and is well on pace to drive up that number in Philadelphia.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Eagles DST

GPP: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Evan Engram

Bears @ Cardinals (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Chicago will be out for vengeance after losing to a Hail Mary pass in Washington last weekend, so Arizona better brace themselves. The Bears are above .500 and playing well this deep into the season, and appear to have finally found their quarterback. Arizona is another surprisingly decent team at 4-4 so far and on top of the NFC West division. Only a one-point spread here in a mid-forties total, so I would not get cute in this game for DFS. Just target either team’s star players if you like this game.

Kyler Murray read the playbook beautifully last weekend, getting the ball into the hands of his best players, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Trey McBride. Each caught for over 100 yards and a touchdown. However, facing a number four-ranked Bears defense may slow down Murray through the air so that James Conner may be more emphasized in the offense on Sunday. Chicago allows over 120 yards of rushing per game, making Conner another safe play this week. Conner has scored over 15 fantasy points in six of eight games this season.

Chicago has won three of its last four games (there should have been four straight) and it’s all because of one man, D’Andre Swift. The former Georgia Bulldog has averaged well over 100 total yards and one touchdown per game in his last four contests. A solid option for cash games and is still severely underpriced on DraftKings at $6,400. We usually do not stack running backs with quarterbacks in DFS, but in this case, I see no issue rolling Swift out with Caleb Williams. Bears receivers have been hit or miss, for a safer option go with tight end Cole Kmet who sees a 78% snap share.

Cash: James Conner, D’Andre Swift

GPP: Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, Cole Kmet, Trey McBride, Marvin Harrison

Lions @ Packers (+3.5) (U/O 48.5)

A huge game on the slate featuring the most explosive division in the NFC North. Both teams are hungry to take the lead as they are neck and neck with six wins a piece. However there is some rain in the forecast in Green Bay, so calm yourselves down a bit on attacking this part of the slate. Let’s figure out this game.

Vegas has dropped the total one point to 47.5 since Tuesday, and this is after Jordan Love was cleared to play from his groin injury that had him crawling to the sideline last Sunday. I do not feel Love is 100% after watching him in pain, so I am out weather or no weather factor. Running back Josh Jacobs is the only Packer I am interested in, averaging 24 fantasy points in his last two games and the clear workhorse of this offense.

Two fun facts about the Lions: They will run the ball down your throats at will, and Jared Goff sucks outdoors, even worse in wet weather. The combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery has been lights out all year, ranked 6th in yardage and first in touchdowns with 13 rushing. Now Goff can’t hand it off thirty times tomorrow, so I would go Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta for some work so long Goff does not melt away. Packers DST is an under-the-radar move this week I feel because of the high total, so long as Goff does not show up.

Cash: Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Jacobs

GPP: Sam LaPorta, Tucker Kraft, Jayden Reed, Packers DST, Lions DST

Rams @ Seahawks (+1.5) (U/O 48)

Last but not least we have a battle in the NFC West. It’s a nice total of 48 with a tight spread of 1.5, so we should see some back-and-forth game flow. The division is up for grabs so expect both teams to come out swinging in their first meeting of the season.

LA is fresh off a victory in Minnesota thanks to a ref turning a blind eye to a facemask on Sam Darnold. The Rams are one of the most electrifying teams in football when healthy, and this week they seem to be. The matchup is juicy, especially for Kyren Williams, who’ll face a Seattle defense that gives up close to 150 yards per game in the trenches. But all should feast well in this high-scoring game so start your Rams up but they won’t come cheap.

Seattle will need all the help they can get on offense as they’ll be without DK Metcalf and Noah Fant. Geno Smith’s downfield threat capabilities will be compromised unless Jake Bobo and AJ Barner can fill in some big shoes this weekend. Although Seattle may choose a more run-heavy approach with Kenneth Walker, who has been solid this season. His role in the passing game has increased to a 14% target share in Seattle, fifth in the league amongst running backs. Jaxson-Smith Njigba and Tyler Lockett will see a bump in their starting roles this week as well.

Cash: Kyren Williams, Kenneth Walker

GPP: Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, Matt Stafford, Geno Smith, JSN, Jake Bobo, AJ Barner, Tyler Lockett

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 9! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

6 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Nine

Dave Gloeckner 6 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

One play in the NFL season has defined our year to date. The Hail Mary in Washington took us from a winning week to a losing week, in just a few short seconds. The way this season has gone, it really came as no surprise. We tailed Jameis and the Jags, both in underdog roles, to get us two needed wins. But the 3rd win is still elusive as the craziest of plays seems to go against us this season. Have no fear, we chug ahead and have some good data and insight to push us up the ladder this week.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on our pick last week with the Lions.

NFL BETS WEEK 9 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 14-19)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +7.5 at PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

The Jags have played better football the last few weeks. But that doesn’t change the fact that they are just 2-6 and 2.5 games out of a playoff spot. At this point, it looks like HC Doug Pederson is coaching for his job as the Jaguars owner deemed this team the most talented he’s had but the results are yet to show. So I expect Pederson to be as aggressive as ever making them a dangerous team.

As for the Eagles, they are coming off their best game in 2 years as they dominated Cincy 37-17. They also have two huge divisional games on deck with the Cowboys on deck for Week 10 and the Commanders sitting behind them as the Week 11 opponent. Have you hear the term “trap game”? This looks like one here in Philly so I’ll take the points with the road team.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +1.5 vs LA RAMS

The Seahawks are playing like Jeckyl and Hyde this season. They came out of the gates hot, going 3-0 and looking like a contender in the NFC. But recent losses to the Giants, 49ers and Bills have set them back to the 0.500 mark and they now look like sellers at the trade deadline. On the other side, the Rams are trending upwards with two straight wins. Last week they handed the Vikings their first loss of the season.

But I’m going back to Seattle here as the Rams pass defense is an issue. DVOA ranks the Rams as the 27th best pass defense and PFF has them as the 2nd worst coverage team. Seattle ranks in the top 7 in most passing categories, including a league leading 262.5 passing yards per game.

TENNESSEE TITANS -3 vs NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS

Patriots QB Drake Maye is questionable with a head injury. I’d be surprised if he plays as New England needs to take the long game with their prized QB. But the Patriots did surprise many last week with an upset of their bitter rivals in the Jets. So emotions are flying high with NE. On the other side, the Titans looked good for about 15 minutes last week. And then 52-14 happened. So these are two teams with different trajectories coming into their Week 9 matchup. Yet, I’m going with the Titans to get their 2nd win of the season this week. The Patriots and Jets are rivals and anything can happen in divisional games. The Titans got blown out, but it was by the best team in football right now in Detroit. The public only sees the recent results but if we look back, NE was outscored 73-37 in the two weeks leading up to Week 8. I’ll go where the sharp money is and back Tennessee this week.

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS -1.5 at CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Jameis Winston story was great last week. And we can see the emotion he brings to the team which helped propel them to a huge divisional upset over the Ravens. But on any given week Jameis can taketh away too. He’s either good for 3 TD’s or 3 INT’s. And versus a top 10 defense, I like the Chargers and Jim Harbaugh to be receivers of the bad Jameis this week. Afterall, it would be a Cleveland thing to do following a great win.

BONUS DISCORD BET (Posted by 12pm on Sunday): DOLPHINS +6.5 over BILLS

SURVIVOR PICK

BALTIMORE RAVENS

The Ravens will come into this game fuming from their loss in Cleveland. Bo Nix has been good but this is too much of a task to ask him to keep up with one of the best offenses in the league.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

6 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: NEW YORK GIANTS at PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 8 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We’ve already taken down a few showdowns this year as a team at WinDaily, and I feel like we’re due for another. So, let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between two storied franchises in the Giants and Steelers. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

NEW YORK GIANTS

Running Back

The Giants simply don’t run the ball enough, or effectively, to be relied on in season long DFS. But they have had some weekly success, including Tyrone Tracy putting up big numbers in their only other primetime game against the Bengals in Week 6. So throw out any bias you have with the Giants running game tonight as it pertains to fantasy and let’s see if we can find value in their matchup with the Steelers.

The reality is, this is a tough matchup for the Giants run game. Pittsburgh ranks 3rd in rushing defense DVOA and 4th in PFF rush defense ranking. And they’re allowing the 5th lowest fantasy point to RB’s this season. Add to that the Giants average just 3.9 yards/carry, which is 29th in the league, and have the 7th lowest run block rating in the NFL. Put all that together, and we’re back to where we started, fading the Giants running game.

The one piece of good news, if there is any, is that the Steelers are susceptible to RB’s in the passing game as they allow 5.1 catches per game to running backs. And both Singletary and Tracy are good pass catchers.

Overall, I like the $4K discount on Tracy. While last week’s game got out of hand quickly for the Giants, Tracy saw 67% of the snaps compared to Singletary’s 21%. The touches were late in the game with the score decided so I’m ignoring that. But Tracy does seem to have the hotter hand right now. And the Giants are desperate, so they need to take chances and use whoever is performing best.

Tier 1: Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tier 2: Devin Singletary

Wide Receiver

This is the one spot that we’ll look to get some Giants into our lineups. While they struggle with protection, allowing 8 sacks last week, they have the 8th highest passing rate in the NFL, throwing it almost 60% of the time. And the spread, as well as team records, indicate they could be down early and often.

The Steelers have allowed the 14th most passing yards in the league, at 217 per game. Their DB’s are ranked 17th in team defense pass coverage. So there will be room to take shots if Daniel Jones has time. Obvious first choice is Malik Nabers. But the Steelers have allowed big games to #2 and slot WR’s like Ray Ray McCloud (led Falcons in receiving in Week 1), Jalen Tolbert (7 for 87 with TD) and Josh Downs (8 for 82 yards with TD). So, I like Wan’Dale Robinson to be a factor tonight and rank him up there with Nabers based on projected volume. Both led the team with 8 targets last week.

Tier 1: Malik Nabers, Wan’Dale Robinson

Tier 2: Darius Slayton

Punts: N/A

Tight End

We keep waiting for the Theo Johnson breakout game. And once again, he disappointed last week recording 0 catches on 0 targets. And maybe that happens this week as Pittsburgh has been vulnerable against TE’s. As of this writing, they allow the 11th most fantasy points per games to TE’s. And they’ve surrendered 3 receiving TD’s to tight ends. And if you haven’t heard, it was national TE day yesterday so no way will Theo want to be left out on the fun. I like him a lot because of his price tag and potential. Now it’s up to the QB to actually give him some looks.

Tier 1: Theo Johnson

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Running Back

The Giants are coming off a game in which they allowed 176 yards rushing to Saquon Barkley, their former 1st-round pick. In total, they surrendered 269 yards on the ground in Week 7 against the Eagles. Some metrics give them a better rating, as they are 14th in rush defense DVOA and 16th in PFF run defense. But I saw what I saw last week, and that is if you commit to the run then you can get big gains against this Giants defense.

The issue is, Pittsburgh isn’t necessarily built like the Eagles as they have the 21st ranked rushing offense according to DVOA. And they rank 22nd in rushing offense in points expected from the running game, with a negative 3.17 total. But the good news is, they do commit to the run, ranking as the 2nd highest run rate in the league at 54%. So if commit is what we want then we will probably see that tonight with the Steelers.

Last week, Jaylen Warren actually saw more snaps then Najee Harris. But Harris dominated the touches with 21 to Warren’s 14. What we’re seeing is Warren taking more of a lead role now that he is healthy as his snap count and touches have gone up since his return. Therefore, of the two, I like Warren the most tonight and think he could have a breakout game. Harris will only find value if he lands in the endzone.

Tier 1: Jaylen Warren

Tier 2: Najee Harris

Wide Receiver

The return of Russell Wilson made George Pickens into a fantasy hero. He had his best outing of the year, putting up 25.1 fantasy points and recording 111 yards receiving on 5 catches with one TD. We’ll look for more of that from Pickens tonight as he becomes more of a downfield target with Wilson behind center. The Giants can be susceptible to the long ball as they allowed a completion of 24 yards or more in every game this season.

Several other Pittsburgh receivers got into the action last week as well, with Darnell Washington (TE) and Calvin Austin both seeing 4 targets each. Van Jefferson saw three. But the key was that Jefferson saw 62% of the snaps which was 12% more than Austin. That is 6 of 7 weeks that Jefferson has out-snapped his counterpart.

Tier 1: George Pickens

Tier 2: Van Jefferson, Calvin Austin

Cheap Options: N/A

Tight End

The Giants have been tough on TE’s, allowing just 246 yards on 28 receptions in 7 weeks of action. But Pittsburgh likes to use a lot of “12” personnel (1 RB, 2 TE, 2 WR), getting both Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington over 50% snap counts last week (Pittsburgh has 9th highest usage of 12 personnel at 22%). Combined they saw 7 targets from Wilson and caught 6 of them for 87 yards. Because of the gap in salary, I do like Washington better tonight. But if you have the room, Freiermuth is always a trusted option in the Pittsburgh offense.

Tier 1: Pat Freiermuth

Tier 2: Darnell Washington

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like George Pickens or Malik Nabers. They also have the TD equity and big play potential compared to their peers which is important on FanDuel. Both QB’s could be an option too, as they make plays with their legs and there isn’t high star power in this game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is George Pickens but I also like Daniel Jones, Malik Nabers, Russell Wilson and Wan’Dale Robinson.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers

FDMVP Tier 2: Russell Wilson, Daniel Jones

FDMVP Tier 3: Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: George Pickens, Malik Nabers, Daniel Jones, Russell Wilson

DK CPT Tier 2: Wan’Dale Robinson, Pat Freiermuth, Jaylen Warren

DK CPT Tier 3: Najee Harris, Darnell Washington, Tyrone Tracy, Steelers D

DK CPT Punt:

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Malik Nabers
George Pickens
Russell Wilson
Daniel Jones
Steelers D
Jaylen Warren
Wan’Dale Robinson
Pat Freiermuth

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Najee Harris
Theo Johnson
Chris Boswell
Greg Joseph
Tyrone Tracy
Devin Singletary
Van Jefferson
Calvin Austin
Darnell Washington

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Daniel Bellinger
Jalin Hyatt

Best Rules for the slate:

The #1 WR’s have the most star power tonight as well as the best ability to break a big play. Must consider both Pickens and Nabers at CPT and in most of your lineups as a pair.
This is one night I could see a defense in the CPT position. The Steelers D is in the top 10 of yards allowed and DVOA. The Giants allowed 8 sacks last week and their O Line is a mess. I will play some lineups with the Steel Curtain as my CPT.
Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think a Pittsburgh TE is in play. Don’t play both but either Freiermuth or Washington could emerge as receiver #2 on Pittsburgh.
I’m big on Jaylen Warren tonight. He adds another dimension to this offense. I’ll play him over Harris in a lot of my lineups.
Wan’Dale Robinson gets so many targets that he must be considered in all lineups. He won’t get you a ton of yards, but he’s going to see 8+ targets which gives him extreme value tonight.
I’m fading the Giants running game. But Tyrone Tracy at $4400 is worth a look. I’m not playing Singletary at $8400 and against this defense.
Both QB’s are in play. I like Jones slightly more but there is a risk of him being pulled if it gets out of hand. Happened last week though Drew Lock didn’t fare any better.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is just 36.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
I think the Giants could surprise tonight as they play better on the road. Therefore, in a contrarian move, don’t count out the Giants defense to put up some points.

Favorite prop for the game: Daniel Jones over 25.5 yards rushing (-110). TJ Watt will be in the backfield all day and I think Jones will hear footsteps and leave the pocket early.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Eight

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We took one on the chin last week as the public once again beat the books. But Thursday night showed hope, as the Rams won as despite getting only 22% of the bets. So we may be seeing a shift in the numbers. Therefore, we’ll stay consistent with our modeling and research and hopefully come out on the right side this weekend.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all our pick last week with the Commanders.

NFL BETS WEEK 8 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 12-16)

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +4.5 vs GREEN BAY PACKERS

The Jags return to the states after two weeks in London. They left on a winning note, by beating the Patriots last weekend in Wembly Stadium. The Jags have been known to go on a run at least once a year under Doug Pederson, who looks to be coaching for his job. So could last week be the start of one? The big reason for this bet is the betting handle at the windows. The line in some books has moved down to +4 or +3.5. But the betting numbers show just 13% of tickets coming in on Jacksonville. Something smells here so I’m going to zag and go with the Jags.

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 vs BUFFALO BILLS

The Bills are taking one of the longest road trips in the NFL and will have to go up against the Seahawks and their raucous crowd on Sunday. While the Bills have been trending upwards, I still think they are overrated to an extent. The addition of Amari Cooper helps but they still lack some key pieces. The Seahawks finally played a complete game last week in Atlanta and will look to bring that good mojo back to Seattle and pull off an upset of the Bills.

CHICAGO BEARS -1.5 at WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

One team is coming off a bye and the other doesn’t know if their QB will be healthy enough to play. We all hope Jayden Daniels can suit up in this matchup of the top 2 picks in the NFL Draft. But I’m taking the rested team that had two weeks to prepare for Washington. Plus, the Bears defense looks great right now and I believe they can stifle this high flying Commanders offense.

DALLAS COWBOYS +4.5 at SAN FRANCISCO 49ers

Don’t ask me why. But I feel like the Cowboys are due for one of those put up or shut up games. This is the perfect spot as everyone is down on Jerry and his Boys.

SURVIVOR PICK

DETROIT LIONS

Best team in football against one of the worst teams. It doesn’t get easier than this. Famous last words.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 8

Joe DiCarlo 7 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back for another breakdown as we are almost halfway through the NFL season. A full entree of 13 games to chop up and set out on the table for you to enjoy. Week 8 should be interesting since so many injuries to starters occurred, and their replacements are set to take on bigger roles in their perspective offenses. Not to mention some players who have been injured will be returning this week, so let’s get started.

Sunday Main Slate 10/27/24

Titans @ Lions (-10.5) (O/U 45)

We start off with the roaring Detroit Lions who are still licking their lips after handing Minnesota their first loss of the year. They host Tennessee, a team that just can’t seem to find the win column with a record of 1-5. It’s a huge spread with Detroit laying 10.5 and the total seems like it may take a dive closer to Sunday. Let’s see who we like in this matchup for DFS.

Don’t underestimate Tennessee’s defense by looking at their record. They’re fifth in rushing yards allowed (105 yards allowed per game) and third in passing yards allowed (186/game). Besides last week’s beat down by Josh Allen, the Titans have not defended any other competent quarterbacks all year. Jared Goff should get the job done once again, along with Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta. Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are the best one-two punch at running back in football, un fadeable in my opinion. However, the Lions may be losing Jameson Williams to a suspension for two games, so the arrows are up for Khalif Raymond and Tim Patrick, great salary savers this weekend in tournaments.

Mason Rudolph did not move the marker any better than Will Levis last week, who got the start at quarterback, and the team is just nauseating to think of in regards to any type of offense on the road in Detroit. So we can’t invest in this passing game and Tony Pollard’s matchup is brutal, facing a Lions team that only allows 92 yards per game rushing. Let’s play it safe, stand clear of any Titans, and lock in the Lions DST.

Cash: Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jahmyr Gibbs, Lions DST

GPP: Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta, Khalif Raymond, Tim Patrick

Update: DeAndre Hopkins was traded to the Chiefs

Packers @ Jaguars (+4.5) (O/U 49.5)

This game has some shootout potential, a near 50-total with the Jags getting a few points at home against the Packers. Both quarterbacks have stepped up to their game, especially Jordan Love winning his third straight game. The contest should see plenty of warm weather with sunny skies, a perfect design for some points to get on the scoreboard. Can the Jags make it two wins in a row after flying back over the pond? We shall see.

Jordan Love does not play favorites, which is unusual for quarterbacks these days. He hits the open man. So roll him out nude and he’s good for 20 fantasy points, which he has averaged all season. But if you can stack him with a receiver, that would be even better. It’s a risky play since we never know where the ball is going in Green Bay, but Romeo Doubs has scored a touchdown and double-digit fantasy points in two straight games. The matchup is gold too, Jacksonville ranks in the bottom three of defending the pass, so roll out Doubs, Reed, Watson, or whoever your gut says will be a Love beneficiary.

The Jags left the pond with a win over the Pats, pulling it off by being down 10-0 at one point. They’ll need more from Trevor Lawrence, who is only completing 66% of his throws and averaging just two carries a game. The rookie Brian Thomas Jr. (17 YPR) and second-string running back Tank Bigsby (6.2 YPC) have been keeping the offense going as of late. Each has scored four times this season, but tight end Evan Engram has the better matchup against Green Bay’s 23rd-in DVOA coverage this week. The Packers have allowed five-plus catches per game at 56 yards a clip in seven games this season, take a shot on Engram in GPPs.

Cash: Jordan Love

GPP: Evan Engram, Brian Thomas Jr., Tank Bigsby, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dontayvion Wicks

Colts @ Texans (-6) (O/U 46)

Next on the menu, we have an AFC South in Texas where the Colts will take on the Texans. The total is mid-range and the spread suggests Houston should walk out of the contest as victors. It’s a great bounce-back spot, mainly for CJ Stroud since scoring single-digit fantasy points last weekend. Although the Colts stroll in with a winning record at 4-3, they rank 31st in rushing yards allowed and 23rd in passing coverage. Indy has also been up and down offensively, which team will show this weekend?

The Texans rallied behind Joe Mixon against Green Bay in their loss, who put up another solid performance (124 TOT yards/2 TDs). We are going to let it ride with Mixon one more week against a Colts team that allows 159 yards per game in the trenches. Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell should also see production in this spot, but Stroud may not get to pay his salary if this game gets out of hand. If they do in fact keep Anthony Richardson and the Colts in check, the Texans DST are an option too this week.

Free Joe Flacco in Indianapolis. Anthony Richardson returned from a two-game stint to lead the Colts to victory, but it wasn’t from his quarterback play. He returned to pass for only 129 yards at 5.4 yards per attempt, so it’s not looking good this week against a Houston defense that is fourth in the league in rushing, and eighth in passing yards allowed. But there is some hope for Jonathan Taylor to return this week, if he does he is a GPP dart throw for a running back that sees 20-plus carries per game.

Cash: Joe Mixon

GPP: Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, CJ Stroud, Jonathan Taylor, Houston DST

Eagles @ Bengals (-3) (O/U 47.5)

I like this game on the slate, it’s a potential sleeper for a shootout. The total does not tell the entire potential game script in Cincinnati, as each team’s defenses are vulnerable to giving up big plays. The Eagles dominated the Giants last week, by showcasing their former bell cow up and down Met Life stadium as he ran for over 170 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals also had a cakewalk weekend in Week 7, beating up on the woeful Browns on their own turf by the hands of Joe Burrow. I’ll explain why this game could be crucial to take ownership of on the slate.

Philadelphia has been impenetrable on the front seven, but you can air the ball out on their secondary. Back in Week 4 Baker Mayfield threw for 347 yards and two touchdowns on that secondary, he had Godwin and Evans alongside him. This week Philly will see Burrow with Ja”Maar Chase and Tee Higgins on opposite sides of him. Imagine the fireworks display that we may be in store for. All three Bengals make the grade, with Chase Brown and Zack Moss also for goal line and hurry-up offense PPR work.

The Bengals however, have been awful at stopping the run. There are too many boxscores to list in this paragraph, but Derrick Henry, Chuba Hubbard, and rookie Tyrone Tracy Jr have all been RB 1’s in the weeks they ran against Cincinnati. Saquon Barkley will be a staple at running back this weekend once again, with Jalen Hurts also getting pushed into the endzone. A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith should see all the passing work with tight end Dallas Goedert sidelined, they will be great GPP options this week.

Cash: Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts, Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, A.J. Brown, Devonta Smith, Chase Brown, Zack Moss

Ravens @ Browns (+11.5) (O/U 44.5)

Baltimore hits the road again after putting up 41 in Tampa on Monday Night and will take on their division rival Browns. The spread is gross and the total is not enticing either, but here we are to take from what we are given. Cleveland’s 200-million dollar man Deshaun Watson is done for the year with a torn Achilles, but that may be good news for the team in general.

We’ve all just seen the highlights and on Monday Night Football, the Ravens are the real deal. Their success is based on running the football, thanks to Derrick Henry. The 30-year-old has averaged over six yards per carry, totaling 873 yards and ten touchdowns. He has only Lamar Jackson to thank because of his own rushing capabilities. And welcome back Mark Andrews, Lamar’s established tight end has been his go-to guy since his rookie season. Andrews was on a milk carton to begin the season, until his last two games as he caught three touchdowns.

Now the Browns will be having a changing of the guard at quarterback, and he should get a warm welcome from the home crowd. Jameis Winston has not been fantasy-relevant since 2022 until he tore his ACL, but he’ll get his shot at redemption on Sunday. It’s not the softest landing spot either as we witnessed two picks by the Raven’s secondary in the first half Monday night. Winston along with Jerry Jeudy, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, and David Njoku are all in play due to their inexpensive salaries against a Ravens’ pass-funnel defense that is impossible to run against (allows only 68 rushing yards per game)

Cash: Lamar Jackson, Derick Henry

GPP: Jameis Winston, Jerry Jeudy, Mark Andrews, David Njoku, Elijah Moore, Cedric Tillman, Ravens DST

Jets @ Patriots (+7) (O/U 41.5)

Aaron Rodgers and the Jets land in a get-right spot on the road in New England, a game they desperately need to win in order to stay in the playoff race. The Pats are back in the States after taking a beating over the pond against Jacksonville. If you want to take a bite out of this contest, I suggest taking the guys in green only. Let’s break it down.

Don’t let New York’s record fool you, if not for a couple of missed field goals this team would be sitting at 4-3. Now with one week under his belt with his former Packer teammate, Davante Adams will see a much better stat line against a Pats’ coverage that ranks 24th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, and Breece Hall should all be involved as well this Sunday as the Jets may use the Patriots as a punching bag this weekend and let out some frustration.

New York’s defense was a dumpster fire in Pittsburgh, but look for them to also land in a soft spot and put the clamps on Drake Maye and the Pats’ offense. They will be in front of a home crowd but using any Patriots’ skill players will be GPP Milli-Maker viable due to the ownership. If I were to take a shot at a Pat it would be Rhamondre Stevenson facing a Jets’ defense that has struggled to stop the run, allowing over 127 yards per game. A safer bet would be the Jets’ DST if you have the salary to pay up for.

Cash: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Jets DST

GPP: Aaron Rodgers, Davante Adams, Allen Lazard, Rhamondre Stevenson

Cardinals @ Dolphins (-3) (O/U 47.5)

Miami will host the Cardinals in a game where we may finally see the Dolphins back to full strength offensively with the return of Tua Tagovailoa. Arizona fresh off their Monday night win against the Chargers is sitting pretty at 3-4 and working their way to a .500 record. It’s a decent total with a standard spread of home-field advantage at -3, let’s get right to it.

The Dolphins are desperate for Tua to suit up, as their offense has looked like a deer in headlights without him over the past six weeks. I haven’t seen Tyreek Hill at .$7K on DraftKings in years, if Tua is back we may have to jam Hill into all of our lineups at that price. Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane also fell down the ladder of affordability, you may want to consider them also, along with Tua himself.

Kyler Murray put the Cardinals on his back Monday night and carried them to a last-minute second by getting his team into field goal position. His legs played a big part in the game, rushing for 64 yards on six carries and a touchdown. He also has not been sacked in his last two games, which helps keep the offense on the field. Miami is ranked first in defending the pass, allowing the least amount of yards and touchdowns, which is bad news for Marvin Harrison and Trey McBride. A naked Kyler Murray or James Connor is the path to take this week in Arizona, Miami has allowed the third-most rushing touchdowns (9) so far this season at 4.6 yards allowed.

Cash: James Conner, Tyreek Hill

GPP: Kyler Murray, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, De’Von Achane, Trey McBride

Falcons @ Bucs (+2.5) (O/U 47.5)

Here we have an NFC South battle in Tampa, Florida as the Division lead will be handed to the winner, Both clubs sit with a record of 4-3, but the Bucs are in serious trouble as they lost both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin back on Monday. Meanwhile, in Atlanta, everything is roses. Although they lost to Seattle last week, the team is healthy and should bounce back this weekend.

The bloodshed is still fresh in our minds from watching Baltimore dismantle the Bucs’ defense by scoring 41 at the hands of Lamar Jackson’s five touchdown passes. It’s an open-and-shut case to fire more bullets at this Tampa defense. Drake London and Bijan are a lock along with Kirk Cousins. I have no problem with any Falcons this weekend actually, even the it defense gets a thumbs up as Tampa is short-handed at receiver.

Tampa is down, but don’t count them out yet. Baker Mayfield still has a cannon of an arm and is not afraid to use it. He leads the league in passing touchdowns with 18, and second in yardage. Who will be on the other end of these throws? Well expect a receiver-by-committee approach, including all three running backs, so keep them all in tournaments. Tight end Cade Otton went bananas (8 receptions for 100 yards) in garbage time last week when Godwin went down after Evans, he could very well be the target monster after all of the injuries.

Cash: Kirk Cousins, Drake London, Bijan Robinson, Baker Mayfield, Cade Otton

GPP: Darnell Mooney, Kyle Pitts, Jalen McMillan, Sterling Shepard, Trey Palmer

Bills @ Seahawks (+3) (O/U 47.5)

Here we have another game to invest in for DFS. The revamped Buffalo Bills offense hits the road to take on the Seahawks and the tough crowd of Seattle. Both teams sit on top of their divisions and look to stay there in a game that foresees back-and-forth scoring action. Grabbing each side of this matchup could be a solid path across the pay lines, let’s check it out.

Seattle only allows 200 passing yards per game, but that number exists only because opposing teams have been successful running the ball, as they allow nearly 150 yards per game. I would not be afraid of this secondary and be willing to roll out any Bills receivers alongside Josh Allen. James Cook should also have a great turnout, both Cash game options. Tight ends Dalton Kincaid has been limited and Dawson Knox has a DNP this week, so monitor them closely.

Buffalo is in the same boat defensively, as they’ve been gashed by running backs and allowing over 130 yards per game at 5.2 yards a clip. If the Seahawks can get the ball rolling with Kenneth Walker, who has been balling out in 2024 (3rd in TOT TDs with 7, 2nd in catches with 23), then Geno could carve up a beat-up Bills defense that may miss DTs Terrel Bernard and DaQuon Jones this week. Keep an eye on DK Metcalf on the injury reports, if he can’t suit up Tyler Lockett, JSN, and Noah Fant will see a bump in target share.

Cash: Josh Allen, James Cook, Kenneth Walker

GPP: Geno Smith, Amari Cooper, Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, DK Metcalf (if healthy), JSN

Update: DK Metcalf is doubtful

Chiefs @ Raiders (+9.5) (O/U 42)

The undefeated Chiefs will fly into Sin City to play the Raiders in an AFC West matchup with an ugly total of 42. The spread is extremely lopsided favoring the Chiefs, mainly because of the bone-crushing KC defense and the porta john offense of Las Vegas. We are used to scrolling straight to the Chiefs for DFS week to week, but not this time around, here is why.

If Vegas scores more than 13 points this week I’ll be surprised, Chris Jones and Trent McDuffie have suffocated every team in their path this season allowing 20 or more points only twice. They will be forced to roll out Gardner Minshew, who they benched, due to Aiden O’Connell landing on IR. Minshew sits on top of the league with eight picks, a number that may get higher after this week. The only Raiders I would consider against KC would be Alexander Mattison, who has taken control of the backfield, and tight end Brock Bowers who has become their number-one passing option.

The Chiefs have a shiny new toy and his name is DeAndre Hopkins. The news broke early Tuesday morning as he was traded from the Titans, becoming the latest wide receiver to switch teams mid-season. He is on pace to play, and Andy Reid will call the plays to send the ball in his direction to see what he acquired. If this game plays out the way most anticipate, we should see plenty of Kareem Hunt eating up the clock in the second half and Pat Mahomes spreading the ball around to gain an early lead.

Cash: Chiefs DST, Kareem Hunt, Brock Bowers

GPP: Pat Mahomes, Travis Kelce, DeAndre Hopkins, Alexander Mattison

Saints @ Chargers (-7) (U/O 39.5)

The 2-5 Saints head out to California to face the Chargers and will still be without quarterback Derek Carr. LA welcomes New Orleans over on Sunday wit a warm welcome and looks to exploit their deteriorated defensive line. It’s a touchdown spread with a total under 40, this could be ugly for fantasy. There’s always a route to take for DFS in every game though, let’s dive in.

The Saints will send out Spencer Rattler one more time, and boy I am licking my chops at the Chargers DST this weekend. Rattler has not delivered at quarterback and still needs to be groomed for obvious reasons. His decision-making is one of them, as he has thrown two picks to one touchdown in two games, and completed passes at only 5.5 yards per attempt. LA is ranked first in points allowed, with six interceptions under their belt already, 13 sacks, and four fumble recoveries. I want no part of any Saints this weekend, even though Chris Olave and Taysom Hill are trending towards playing this week, if Hill plays we may see him take over the QB position.

New Orleans has been destroyed across the board defensively as they rank 28th in passing yardage, 30th in rushing, and average well over 23 points allowed per game. Harbaugh and the Chargers are firm believers in running the football and tossing it out to their tight ends. JK Dobbins and Will Dissly/Hayden Hurst will flourish in this game. This may be the last time we see Dobbins under $7K on DraftKings so take him before the price goes up down the road.

Cash: JK Dobbins, Chargers DST

GPP: Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst (if both are healthy), Taysom Hill

Panthers @ Broncos (-8) (U/O 43.5)

Denver will sit in the driver’s seat on the road to victory as they will host the single-win Panthers. It will be one of the most lopsided games on the slate as the Broncos rank in the top five in almost all the categories including total defense and points allowed. Bryce Young will be back under center, which could be a tougher pill to swallow for all Panther fans. We’ll pick the pieces for you to decide on to put in your lineups.

Low totals with spreads at a touchdown or higher equal running backs and defenses to target for fantasy. Javonte Williams and the Denver defense make absolute sense this weekend, stacking both in your lineup will have you sleeping like a baby Saturday night before the slate kicks off. The Panthers have allowed 27 total touchdowns so far this season, ranking dead last in points allowed, rushing yardage and touchdowns. All the Broncos are viable this weekend including their defense.

Bryce Young will be thrown back to the wolves since Andy Dalton bruised his thumb in a car accident. What a matchup he gets, Denver on the road. He may also be without his number one receiver Diontae Johnson due to some bruised ribs, which could lead to stacked boxes for Chuba Hubbard. Stay away from the Panthers this weekend against one of the best defenses in football.

Cash: Javonte Williams, Denver DST

GPP: Bo Nix

Update: Diontae Johnson is out

Bears @ Commanders (+2.5) (U/O 44)

To wrap up the Breakdown it will be a showdown between the number one and number two overall picks in this year’s draft. Caleb Williams will look to continue the Bears’ hot streak against The Commanders, who hope Jayden Daniels will be healthy enough to play. Williams has not practiced all week with a rib injury, which would give Marcus Mariota the start in case he can’t suit up. Let’s look into the final game of the slate.

The number one-ranked offense in points scored of the Commanders may be tough sledding this weekend, especially without Jayden Daniels. The Bears rank fourth in total defense and only allow 180 passing yards per game, with only four touchdowns. Look for Washington to focus on moving the football on the ground behind one of the strongest offensive lines in the league. Brian Robinson Jr. and Austin Ekeler are GPP backs this week and Jayden Daniels of course will be usable if he plays. If we get Mariotta, use the Commanders’ receiving core with caution.

Chicago on the other hand has a great matchup, as Washington is not frugal at all when it comes to scoring on them. Diontae Johnson and Zay Flowers feasted on this upcoming secondary of Washington, which is 26th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. They’ve also been friendly to opposing backs, allowing just under five yards per carry. DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, and Rome Odunze get the thumbs up and are all in play for GPPs. D’Andre Swift has re-emerged finally, scoring over 20 fantasy points in his last three games, which cements him in cash games because of his low $6K price tag on DraftKings. Stack your Bears or roll Caleb out nude, either way, you should be golden on the slate.

Cash: D’Andre Swift, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels (if healthy)

GPP: DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Cole Kmet, Rome Odunze, Brian Robinson, Austin Ekeler, Chicago DST (if Daniels is out)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 8! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

7 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL STRATEGY: TWO GAME CLASSIC SLATE (BALT @ TAMPA / LAC @ ARIZ)

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 7 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. And we have another special one tonight as the NFL gives us two Monday night games for our viewing, and betting, pleasure. Therefore, this article will take a right turn from its normal form where we focused solely on showdowns. Instead, we’ll look at the combined two game slate and see if we can build a strategy to bring home a winning lineup in a classic format. I’m still providing showdown thoughts at the end of the article for those looking at the typical one game builds. With that said, let’s dive into two intriguing matchups featuring the Ravens at Dolphins in the early game and the Chargers at the Cardinals slated for the later time slot. Note, the Chargers/Cardinals game is an exclusive ESPN+ streaming game.

Remember there are different strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, so ensure you keep that in mind when building your winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

NOTE: The totals in the two games tonight are 6 points apart. We have the best game stack environment is Baltimore/Tampa Bay as that total is set at 50 points. The Chargers/Cardinals game has a total of 44 so it’s still a good place to go for smaller stacks.

QUARTERBACK

We have four QB’s to choose from tonight in the two-game slate. But the reality is, two are starting QB’s in the NFL, one is a career backup and journeyman, and the other is a 2nd year turnover machine. But because of skewed ownership on the former two, we must look at all the details and matchups to see what makes the most sense for our builds.

LAMAR JACKSON ($8000 DK) – The reigning NFL MVP is always in play on any card. But when you have one as short as this, with just 2 games, he’s the top arm to target. Especially when you factor in his matchup against the Bucs who have allowed the 4th most passing yards/game in the NFL at 252.3. And it doesn’t stop there, as the Bucs are allowing 113.3 yard/game on the ground (19th in NFL). But the key here is their play against other mobile QB’s, as they’ve allowed 187 yards rushing to signal callers. This includes a 16 carry, 88 yard performance by Jayden Daniels. So there is room for LJack to run against the Bucs too thus raising his fantasy potential.

BAKER MAYFIELD ($6800 DK) – There are only 3 teams allowing more yards passing than the Bucs. And the Ravens are one of those. Baltimore allows the most passing yards per game at 275.5. And with the weapons at Baker’s disposal, he should be able to carve up a weak Ravens secondary. And as far as this season goes, Baker is top 10 in passing yards as he averages 248.2 per game. He’s also tied for the lead league with 15 passing TD’s. Therefore, Baker is a great play for tonight in what could be a shootout in Tampa.

KYLER MURRAY ($6500 DK) – Murray looks to have the toughest matchup of the four QB’s tonight as the Chargers have a top 5 defense in almost all metrics. This includes allowing a league low in 13.2 points/game. But one thing to consider is that Murray has most of his weapons fully healthy, including Marvin Harrison Jr and Trey McBride. And the Chargers have played just one top 15 QB in this league, Patrick Mahomes, which means they’ve feasted on lesser competition. So I do encourage some lineups with Murray as we’re seeing him projected as the lowest owned QB, at just 11%. It’s always a good idea to zag in smaller slates.

JUSTIN HERBERT ($5500 DK) – The issue with Herbert isn’t talent. We all know he has a big arm and can make plays with his legs. But it’s the weapons and style of play of the Chargers, which limits Herbert’s fantasy ceiling. He’s averaging just 11.4 fantasy points per game and hasn’t surpassed 13.7 points in any game. Yet his numbers are looking good as he has a 6-to-1 touchdown to INT ratio. The other factor to consider is that LA plays at the slowest pace in the league, averaging a full 30 seconds per snap. And they run at the 3rd highest rate in the league, thus keeping the clock moving on a consistent basis. The matchup and salary are tempting, but I’m going to focus on the other three QB’s for my two-game slates.

Tier 1: LAMAR JACKSON, BAKER MAYFIELD

Tier 2: KYLER MURRAY

RUNNING BACK

The RB position is filled with tough decisions tonight. We’ll be focusing on matchups for our back usage tonight.

DERRICK HENRY ($8000 DK) – The Ravens run the ball at the highest rate in the league and average an eye-opening 205.3 yards per game on the ground. There’s no question Henry is the #1 back on this small slate. You could even pair him with Lamar Jackson and soak up all the 200 yards this team is projected to gain on the ground.

JAMES CONNER ($6600 DK) – Conner is either hit or miss this season. When he’s faced rushing defenses in top 15 in rushing yards allowed, he’s averaged just 8.2 fantasy points per game. In the other three games, he’s averaging 21 fantasy points per game. Well, the Chargers are 6th in rush defense, so I’m fading Conner tonight in most lineups as I think there are better spots at better prices,

J.K. DOBBINS ($6400 DK) – Great back with a great price and matchup tonight. The Chargers RB is averaging 5.4 yards/carry and 17 fantasy points per game. Arizona allows the 9th most points to RB’s.

RACHAAD WHITE ($5700 DK) – I won’t play White tonight. He’s status is questionable and he may not play. But even if he does, he’s up against a team allowing just 59 yards/game. White is averaging just 3.6 yards/carry this season and will not find room on the ground against a tough Ravens front.

BUCKY IRVING ($5900 DK) – My amount of exposure to Irving will vary based on White’s status. While I don’t like White against the Ravens, I do think Irving could find some room as he’s averaging 5.7 yards/carry. He’s also a threat as a catcher, which is an area that the Ravens are susceptible, allowing 4.3 receptions per game to RB’s (16th most in league).

SEAN TUCKER ($5900 DK) – Tucker is only in play if White doesn’t suit up. He had a great week as a backup to Irving. But he still saw just 38% of the snaps and some of that was due to the game being out of hand in the 4th quarter. As of note, he had 0 snaps the last time White and Irving were both healthy (week 5).

KIMANI VIDAL ($4400 DK) – The Chargers RB has been promoted due to Gus Edwards injury. And he provided a nice fantasy spark with 13.1 points in last week’s game at Denver. He saw only 24% of the snaps, but that should go up tonight as he’s had more time practicing with the first team. He’s a good salary saver for GPP’s.

EMARI DEMARCADO ($4000 DK) – Demarcado out-snapped James Conner almost 2 to 1 last week. That was most likely because of score, but when he was in, the Cards tried to get him the ball. Demarcado had the second most targets on the team at 7. He could be a nice change-up against an aggressive Chargers D.

Tier 1: DERRICK HENRY, JK DOBBINS

Tier 2: BUCKY IRVING, JAMES CONNER

Wide Receiver

CHRIS GODWIN ($7400 DK) – Godwin has been a fantasy superstar this year with 21.7 points/game. Coming into Week 7, he led the league in receptions with 43. He can take that lead again with just 5 catches tonight, which shouldn’t be an issue versus the worst pass defense in the league. I like Godwin over Evans, due to him consistently getting targets (9 per game) but I will see some lineups with both.

MIKE EVANS ($730000 DK) – Evans is tied with his counterpart, Chris Godwin, for the team lead in receiving TD’s with 5. But he has 18 less receptions on just 11 less targets. This just shows the difficulty in the routes and balls that are thrown Evans way. But Baltimore has allowed the second most points to fantasy WR’s so he’s a top 2 target on tonight’s slate.

MARVIN HARRISON JR ($7000 DK) – Maybe Kyler Murray really doesn’t like Harrison Jr. He’s had three weeks of 2 catches or less (with last week’s game shortened by injury). But if they are going to contend, and win games against tough teams, he’ll need to send the ball Harrison’s way tonight. I still think the salary is a bit high for the matchup and lack of volume. He can bust one at any time but I prefer the other passing options for the Cards.

ZAY FLOWERS ($6700 DK) – Flowers has two straight games of at least 25 fantasy points. He’s seeing on average 7 targets per game. And he gets to against a defense that is allowing the 4th most points to WR’s.

LADD MCCONKEY ($4900) / QUENTIN JOHNSON ($4600 DK) / JOSH PALMER ($4400 DK) – Of the Chargers trio, I like Josh Palmer the most tonight. He saw just three targets last week but was matched up against Patrick Surtain for most of the game. I expect him to be WR #1 for LAC as he has the best repoire with QB Justin Herbert. It looks like Johnson will miss tonight. If he does, that opens up McConkey to see the field in most 2 WR sets. So his value goes up without Johnson.

SIMI FEHOKO ($3000 DK) – A pure shot in the dark but Fehoko did see more targets than Palmer and Johnson last week and turned that into 6.4 DK points.

Of note, MICHAEL WILSON ($4700 DK) is my favorite Cardinals WR. He’s been very consistent in the past four weeks, averaging almost 11 fantasy points per game in those contests. But keep an eye on ZAY JONES ($4500 DK) as he’s scheduled to make his Cardinals debut tonight.

Tier 1: CHRIS GODWIN, MIKE EVANS, ZAY FLOWERS

Tier 2: MICHAEL WILSON, JOSH PALMER,

TIER 3: MAVIN HARRISON JR, RASHOD BATEMAN, LADD MCCONKEY, ZAY JONES, STERLINE SHEPARD

Tight End

With have some big name TE’s on the slate. Baltimore has allowed the 24th most points to TE’s so that raises the value of Cade Otton. But you won’t want to pair him with all the Bucs receivers. So get creative there. I think Mark Andrews recent resurgence puts him ahead of Likely in my pecking order. Anytime Murray plays, McBride is in a smash spot.

Tier 1: TREY MCBRIDE, CADE OTTON

Tier 2: MARK ANDREWS, ISAIAH LIKELY, WILL DISSLY

DEFENSE

I prefer the defenses in the later game and am hoping the earlier game is a shootout.

Tier 1: LA CHARGERS, ARIZONA CARDINALS

Tier 2: BALTIMORE RAVENS

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—MNF Showdown

Now that you have our multi game strategy, we’re also providing a quick thought on the single game breakdowns.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. I’ll target similar names to the FanDuel MVP’s above as they have the highest usage rate available.

Best Rules for the slate (BALT at TAMPA):

Play at least two WR’s tonight in your lineups, preferably three. Both pass defenses are vulnerable.
It’s unlikely you’ll have room for both QB’s and solid pass catchers. In showdown, the salaries are much closer so I favor Lamar. But try to fit at least one QB in your build.
We are looking for a shootout, so I’m fading both defenses. Ravens are the only one I’d consider since they’ve racked up 19 sacks this year.
Derrick Henry is a beast, but I’ll be on the lower side of ownership so I can fit in the passing weapons. He’s still in play though, obviously. I’ll just be less than the predicted rate of 70%.
Kickers baby! Both are in play due to the high pace of both teams.
My favorite TE is Cade Otton with Mark Andrews as my #2. Both are cheaper than Likely.
Keep an eye on Sterline Shepard. He’s clearly the 3rd WR for TB and is at a good price.
If White is out, I will play more of Irving. I think he’s crucial in spacing the field for Tampa.

Best Rules for the slate (LAC at ARZ):

My favorite CPT for this game is Trey McBride. But I’ll also consider J.K. Dobbins, Kyler Murray and Josh Palmer.
Don’t fret the matchup, Kyler Murray needs to have a good game coming off a poor one at Green Bay. I believe he can do so as LA hasn’t faced many premiere QB’s this year.
Kristian Fulton is one of the top DB’s in the league. He could give Harrison some fits but I still like the former Buckeye in Flex positions. I don’t think he gets for volume for CPT but can break one at any time.
Chargers WR’s are priced well. I won’t want to play more than one in any of my lineups, unless it’s Fehoko as my 2nd as he is just $1800 and needs just 6+ points to pay off his value.
Both kickers are in play but I would only play one in my lineups.
The defenses are in play as well, with the Cardinals my preference as they’ve forced 8 turnovers this year.
One name to keep in mind is Emari Demarcado. Any injury or change in game environment could force the Cards to use Demarcado, and if they do so he’s a threat in the passing game.

Favorite prop for the games: To be posted by 5pm EST.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Bets & Survivor Pool Picks for 2024 Week Seven

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Here we go! Well, at least it’s a quiet week from that standpoint as the Cowboys are off on a bye. But we did assess the Cowboys correctly last week as we were all over the Lions who thrashed Dallas in a beatdown for the ages. However, once again, a middling week as we are stuck in neutral with a 2-2 mark. Don’t fret, as I’m confident the wins are coming, and I’m feeling really good about the card in Week 7. If you didn’t see the news, the books got hammered last week and took a massive beating to the public. Overall, the public went 11-2-1. Which probably explains my 2-2 record because I’m normally zigging against the public. So you know what that means, Vegas is due for a big one which could be perfectly aligned with my zags below.

As for Survivor, it’s been tough sledding but if you’re sill alive there are picks to be made and potential to bring home a big payday. We did hit on all of our picks last week including the Eagles. Which is good news because frankly, they stink. So getting the Birds out of the way will help pave the way to success here going forward.

NFL BETS WEEK 7 (2024 SEASON RECORD: 11-13)

TENNESSEE TITANS +9.5 at BUFFALO BILLS

The Titans are bad, but mainly because of their QB play. Because of that, they are shifting gears and moving off of Will Levis and handing the reigns to Mason Rudolph. The latter has played one game this season, in relief, and propelled the Titans to their lone victory over the Dolphins. Rudolph has proved he can play in this league and gives the Titans a much better chance than the Mayonnaise King (Will Levis).

Also, we’re seeing 88% of the money coming in on Buffalo. That’s the highest amount for any team on the slate tomorrow. We saw the public win last week but I don’t see it happening two weeks in a row. Also, Buffalo is coming off a Monday night game and on a short week which is always a bettors angle to take. So I’ll fade the herd and back the Titans in a game where I expect them to be competitive throughout.

GREEN BAY PACKERS -2.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Texans looked to get back on track last week with a convincing win over the Patriots. But the key part of this is they did it against a very bad team in New England. And it was QB Drake Maye’s first career start which exemplified the precarious condition of the Patriots. On the other hand, the Packers took care of business at home against a Cardinals team that was coming off a thrilling victory against the 49ers. In that game, the Packers outgained the Cards by 134 yards and won the turnover battle 3 to 1.

The Packers are seeing just 17% of the money as of this writing. The public is very high on the 5-1 Texans but I think the better team resides on the other sideline. I’ll back the Pack to continue their winning streak and get their 3rd straight victory this Sunday at Lambeau Field.

MIAMI DOLPHINS +3.5 at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

The Colts are dreadful on defense. The Dolphins are returning from a BYE week and saw plenty of film on the 19th ranked defense according to DVOA. While I have questions about HC Mike McDaniel, he had a full week to prepare for the Colts which should bode well for his team. And he gets the luxury of having RB De’von Achane return to the lineup who missed the last 1.5 games with a concussion.

The Colts are welcoming the return of a star on their side too, as QB Anthony Richardson is expected to start. But he’s struggled mightily this season completing just 50.6% of his passes and throwing 6 INT’s to just 3 TD’s. They will also be without RB Jonathan Taylor which is a big deal as Miami ranks 31st in rushing defense DVOA.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -1.5 vs KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

This is all about Super Bowl revenge. The Eagles beat the Chiefs last year in a similar role. And the 49ers are desperate for a win. I like San Fran to play their best game of the season this week and start getting on a role towards the top of the NFC once again.

SURVIVOR PICK

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS

While I do think the Commanders are a playoff contender, they aren’t an easy team to take in Survivor based on their upcoming schedule and opponents. But this is the week that we have an opportunity to check off a middle of the pack team. That’s because Washington is hosting the worst team in football this week in the Carolina Panthers. Daniels should have his way and help lead the Commanders to their 5th win on the season and help Washington stay atop the NFC East.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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NFL Game-by-Game Breakdown for Week 7

Joe DiCarlo 7 months ago

written by Joe DiCarlo

We are back for Week 7’s Breakdown and could not be more excited for Daily Fantasy this weekend. The cream keeps rising to the top here, as we deliver gems such as Tank Dell and Bucky Irving into your DFS lineups from week into week out. Week 7 will be 10 games again, as London and teams on Bye shrink the Main Slate up yet again. Keep it here and let’s cut right to it, the Breakdown for Week 7’s ten-game slate is here in Mid-October!

Stay tuned to all our injury news, updates, and building advice on Discord. Also, check out our Optimizer and Projection Models to get the best possible performance from your lineups. Also, check back into the article during the week as we approach kickoff for more content, as more game breakdowns will be available as we approach the Sunday Slate.

Sunday Main Slate 10/20/24

Lions @ Vikings (-2.5) (O/U 50)

Detroit flies out to Minnesota for an NFC North battle with the 5-0 Vikings. We can expect a ton of ownership in this game, with a 50-point total between two powerhouse offenses, this contest holds weight. Detroit looked unstoppable on the road in Dallas, winning decidedly 49-6, while Minnesota had the week on bye.

The Lions’ offense has been off the charts since the start of the season and shows no signs of pumping the brakes. The league’s number-one-ranked scoring offense is in the top five in passing and rushing touchdowns scored. Although they face the number-one-ranked rushing defense in Minnesota, we can’t pivot away from the one-two punch of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs running behind a top-five offensive line. The better matchup lies in the air with Jared Goff (Minnesota ranks 30th in passing yards allowed, and 23rd in passing touchdowns).

What can we say negatively about those unbeaten Vikings? Their record speaks for itself. Sam Darnold (#1 in red zone completion percentage 72%) has been flawless in leading Kevin O’Connell’s offense. He’ll have a heck of a matchup against Detroit’s pass funnel offense (27th in DVOA), and throwing to Justin Jefferson who will be mismatched against Detroit’s Carlton Davis (+23% coverage rating). Jordan Addison will also be involved more since running back Aaron Jones is set to miss some time. Ty Chandler and the recently acquired Cam Akers will be available to pick up the slack, but Chandler should see the bulk of the work.

Cash: Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown

GPP: David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Ty Chandler (if Aaron Jones is out), Jared Goff, Sam Darnold, Jameson Williams, Jordan Addison, Sam LaPorta

Texans @ Packers (-2.5) (O/U 47.5)

Houston will take on the Packers at Lambeau in what appears to be another high-scoring game between two of the most prominent and up-and-coming football teams. Both clubs can put up points and at the same time keep their opposition off the field with their stout defenses. It’ll be a game to be recognized for in DFS, with its Vegas line giving us an indication of some back-and-forth scoring in a near fifty total.

Houston is still loaded with firepower, even though top wideout Nico Collins was recently placed on IR. The offense was moving on all cylinders in New England last weekend, with Tank Dell and Stefon Diggs each catching touchdowns from C.J. Stroud, as well as Joe Mixon scoring two himself after returning from a three-game hiatus. With a record of 5-1, rest easy using any of these Texans for DFS, especially their receiving options since Green Bay allows over 225 passing yards per game (25th in DVOA).

The Packers looked back to full capacity last week, as Jordan Love put up over 25 fantasy points with ease against Arizona. The Texans have been tough on paper defensively (4th in passing yardage allowed), but their schedule has been cake early in the season. Love will be a lock again for Cash games, but his receiving core should be played in tournaments only, since he spreads the ball around so much it’s too hard to pinpoint (has averaged 3+ targets to all available receivers in rotation).

Cash: Jordan Love, Joe Mixon

GPP: C.J. Stroud, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson, Tucker Kraft, Dalton Schultz.

Eagles @ Giants (+3.5) (O/U 43.5)

We have an NFC East battle in the Meadowlands as the Eagles take on the Giants in what looks to be a low-scoring and close matchup. Philadelphia, who barely squeaked by the struggling Cleveland Browns, does not look like the same team we saw reach the Super Bowl two years ago. Big Blue continues to tough it out by moving the chains without Malik Nabers, hopefully, he clears protocols to play.

Philly is back to full strength offensively after Devonta Smith and AJ Brown returned from injuries last week, each catching one in the end zone. Although tight end Dallas Goedert may be a little banged up, they should easily score on New York. Expect a ton of a pissed-off Saquon Barkley usage at Met Life this weekend, as he returns to face his former team in his I-95 rival Eagles uniform. The Giants allow over five yards per carry, to opposing backs, so pay up for Saquon in cash.

The Giants showed some pride in losing against the Bengals last week as they almost pulled off the win without Malik Nabers and Devin Singletary. Rookie Tyrone Tracy scored 22 fantasy points, averaging about five yards per carry, and Darius Slayton has seen 22 targets, catching 14 of them for 179 yards and a touchdown in the two games without Nabers. The Eagles secondary has been generous to opposing receivers this year, allowing seven touchdowns and almost seven yards per catch. If Nabers is on the field, lock him in for cash, if not, we like Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson.

Cash: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Malik Nabers (if healthy)

GPP: AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Wan’Dale Robinson, Darius Slayton, Daniel Jones, Tyrone Tracy Jr. (if Singletary is Out)

Update: Dallas Goedert is Out…Grant Calcaterra is In

Seahawks @ Falcons (-2.5) (O/U 51)

Seattle will try to overcome its two-game slump in Atlanta when it takes on the red-hot Falcons. Both teams can score with ease, it will be just a matter of who can finish with the most. The 51-point total along with the low 2.5-point spread will be very inviting for DFS ownership, so let’s decide on who to own on this slate.

Geno Smith and the Seahawks will need to take to the air if they have a shot at beating Atlanta. The trenches have been friendly to tread on as well (142 RuYDS allowed per game), but if they want to keep up with the pace they will need to attack their 21st in DVOA secondary. DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith Njigba draw terrible coverages from Atlanta’s AJ Terrel (+11% Rating) and Dee Alford (+7% Rating). Seahawks will be popular for DFS this week, especially Kenneth Walker, who averages thirteen carries per game to go along with six targets and 12 red zone touches.

Kirk Cousins has the Falcons’ offense running like a top. Even Kyle Pitts has logged double-digit fantasy points for two straight weeks. Seattle has been trash in stopping the run, allowing close to 145 yards per game on the ground. look to see more of Bijan Robinson on Sunday to take advantage of the matchup. Once Bijan gets moving, expect Kirk to open up the passing routes to London, Mooney, and Pitts. Cash only except for Mooney who can be placed into GPPs.

Cash: Kenneth Walker, Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Kyle Pitts

GPP: Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Jaxon Smith Njigba, DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney

Bengals @ Browns (+6) (O/U 41.5)

The craptastic Browns have made the slate and will host the Bengals in an AFC North matchup as five-and-a-half-point road favorites. Cleveland appears to be waving the white flag for the 2024 season at 1-5, while Cincinnati has been on a tear offensively scoring over 30 points in three of their last four games. When the Browns and Bengals clash, there’s always blood to be spilled no matter how bad of their records.

Big changes are on the horizon for the Browns. They traded away their top receiver Amari Cooper for a third-round pick this week and there could be more deals on the way. Some good news however is Nick Chubb has been logging full practices this week since being activated from IR. This is perfect timing as Jerome Ford landed on the injury report and has been missing practices with his hamstring. Chubb could see a slightly increased workload in his first game back since Week 2 of last season, and the Bengals’ 28th-ranked run defense (146 RuYDS allowed per game) would be a soft landing spot. Jerry Jeudy also gets a bump with the departure of Amari Cooper.

Joe Burrow has looked like his old self with a healthy receiving core. Now that Tee Higgins is back at 100% alongside Ja’Maar Chase, he’s completed 78% of his passes and has thrown 12 touchdown passes so far this season, which is 2nd in the league. The steam from the Cleveland engine may be gone, and the Bengals may very well walk into the Dog Pound and put them in a kennel. Fire up that Bengals defense for DFS too this weekend.

Cash: Ja’Maar Chase

GPP: Joe Burrow, Nick Chubb, Jerry Jeudy, Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Bengals DST

Titans @ Bills (-8.5) (O/U 41.5)

Tennessee is coming off their bye week and will have a tough matchup on the road up in Buffalo. The Bills now in full command of the AFC East will look to chalk up another win against a sputtering Titans offense that is unable to pass the football due to a lackluster Will Levis.

A 41.5-point total with a huge spread screams the Bills’ DST for DFS. Josh Allen may not have to put up too many points if the Titans fail to move the football, but we can never tell you to fade one of the best quarterbacks in the game. Buffalo also acquired stud receiver Amari Cooper via trade from Cleveland, but he may not play until he gets up to speed on the playbook. Pay close attention to Bills’ news reports for Cooper and James Cook’s foot problem. If Cook is out, Ray Davis is the next man up to run the ball. He recently torched the Jets on 20 carries for 97 yards and three catches for 55 yards.

The Titans have been a dumpster fire when it comes to chucking the pigskin. Will Levis has struggled in his Sophomore season, averaging only 5.6 yards per attempt and only throwing five touchdowns. The only game in town has been running back Tony Pollard. Although he is only middle of the pack in yards per carry (4.2), catches (16), and touchdowns (3), he’s scored double-digit fantasy points in four of five games for the season. His matchup is tasty, as Buffalo is dead-last in opposing running back yards per attempt at 5.3 YPC.

Cash: Josh Allen, Bills DST

GPP: Tony Pollard, Ray Davis (if James Cook is out)

Update: Tyjae Spears is out, Mason Rudolph to start at QB

Dolphins @ Colts (-3) (O/U 43.5)

Miami will head to Indy fresh off a Week 6 Bye and aim for a win against an opponent that may do them the honor. The Dolphins will still be without quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, who has been desperately missed by the offense, especially Tyreek Hill. The Colts will be rolling back Anthony Richardson after starting the veteran Joe Flacco in their previous two games, who has led the offense better. Both clubs have putrid defenses and should allow points on each side of the field, I am not worried about this mid-to-low total of 43.5.

Tyler Huntley will be handed the keys to the offense once more for Miami, and hopefully the week off has helped him get more comfortable with the playbook. This may be his last start as Tua can be cleared to play in Week 8, and facing this Colt’s defense, he could go out in style. Indianapolis is currently ranked 26th in passing and 31st in rushing defense, which should set up a great game flow for De’Von Achane and Tyreek Hill. But how much faith you have in Huntley is up to you. They are all viable for a slot in GPPs.

Richardson has been ramping up in practices and is ready to take back his job as quarterback in Week 7, but should we trust him to lead the offense? It’s not fair to knock his stats since he has missed a few games already this year, but when he was on the field he only completed 53% of his passes. Facing a secondary featuring Jalen Ramsey also doesn’t help his cause this week, so the Colts will need to lean on the running game. The Dolphins have allowed eight rushing touchdowns (30th in the league) at 4.7 yards per carry in five games. When Richardson does decide to throw, he’ll look for Josh Downs. In two games they’ve connected on 11 of 14 targets for 104 yards and a touchdown.

Cash: None

GPP: Tyler Huntley, Anthony Richardson, De’Von Achane, Trey Sermon (if healthy), Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Josh Downs

Panthers @ Commanders (-7.5) (O/U 51.5)

Washington is back on the slate and will host a Panthers’ squad that has been unable to stop a bloody nose defensively. The total is juicy but the salaries have risen in a Commanders’ uniform, especially quarterback Jayden Daniels, who is the most expensive on the slate on DraftKings at $7,600. Washington’s defense is equally as bad hence the 51.5-point total. Does Andy Dalton have anything left in the tank to keep the Commanders honest? Let’s dive into this game later in the slate.

The meat and potatoes of this Panthers’ offense have been Chuba Hubbard and Dioantae Johnson all season long. The duo have combined for six touchdowns on top of 51 receptions, with Hubbard averaging 5.6 yards per carry. The ball will be in their hands to face a Commanders’ run defense that is 29th in the league and a secondary that is 28th in DVOA to opposing wide receivers. Xavier Legette also gets some praise in this write-up, as he caught a touchdown in two of his last three contests.

Washington’s players are priced up for a reason, they win games and light up the scoreboard. They sit in a great spot at home to win their fifth game and sit on top of the NFC East. Noah Brown is quietly emerging as Jayden’s second option at receiver seeing eight targets last week. But Terry McLaurin is still the alpha in this receiver room averaging 20 fantasy points per game in his last four. We love the matchup for Washington so pretty much all of their skill players are viable, but pay attention to injury reports for Brian Robinson Jr. If he sits out a third straight game then Austin Ekeler will feast against the worst run defense in football (Panthers allow over 153 RuYDS per game).

Cash: Jayden Daniels, Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin

GPP: Austin Ekeler, Xavier Legette, Andy Dalton, Noah Brown

Raiders @ Rams (-6.5) (O/U 43)

Vegas lands in the City of Angles to take on the Rams who will be well rested from a bye week. The Raiders are in total tank mode. They traded away Davante Adams for a measly third-round pick, which may have caused the rest of the team to want to sit out. LA is still in the hunt to tank as well sitting at 1-4, but at least their guys show up to play. I am not getting good vibes for DFS in this game, but let’s dissect it anyway.

Adams got his way by faking a hamstring until he got traded. Jakobi Meyers should’ve been back last week but is listed as doubtful. The QB situation between Aiden O’Connell and Gardner Minshew is not tempting, and running back Zamir White may not play again because of his groin. If you have a big set and really need to play a Raider the only games in town are Brock Bowers and Alexander Mattison. Receivers are a crap shoot between Tucker, Turner, and Wilkerson, cheap for DFS but risky. all Raiders are GPP candidates.

Cooper Kupp may step back on the field this week. What better landing spot than the Raiders to test that ankle? He has not played since Week 2 so he may not be worth the high price in DFS, but knowing head coach Sean McVey’s mentality he could play a ton of snaps. The safer Ram would be running back Kyren Williams this week. He’s expensive, but his matchup is remarkable as Vegas allows over 140 yards rushing per game. He is the whole enchilada at running back as he leads the league in carries (95) and red zone touches (32), scoring seven times already this year.

Cash: Kyren Williams

GPP: Cooper Kupp (if he plays), Matt Stafford, Brock Bowers, Alexander Mattison, Tre Tucker, Colby Parkinson, Tutu Atwell, Rams DST

Chiefs @ Niners (-1.5) (O/U 47.5)

We have finally reached the main event, a rematch of the Super Bowl LVIII. Kansas City enters the Bay Area undefeated and well-rested coming off bye. The Niners, however, really need this win in order to stay on top of their division. The bad taste left in their mouth from the loss eight months ago may still be lingering as well, so we can expect an all-out war on the field. Be prepared to stack this game or go up against other entrants stacking them in DFS.

The Chiefs have not looked the sharpest offensively thanks to a boatload of injuries this season, relying on their defense and controversial referee calls to stay undefeated. His fantasy numbers have not been up to par this year, but Patrick Mahomes shows up when it matters. In last year’s big game, he threw for well over 300 yards and two touchdowns, a feat he can easily duplicate this Sunday. Travis Kelce and Juju Smith-Schuster will see large roles once again in the passing game, as well as Kareem Hunt to run the rock.

The Niners are out for blood and looking to climb the standings in the NFC West. It could be tough sledding going up against a Chiefs’ defense that allows only 88 yards per game rushing. That is not good news for a Niner team that is built on running the ball. The fate of San Fransisco once again rests in the hands of Brock Purdy and his arsenal at his fingertips. They are all healthy, so it’s wheels up to Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle. Kittle will have the best matchup on paper as Kansas City is dead last in DVOAto defending opposing tight ends.

Cash: Pat Mahomes, Juju Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce

GPP: Brock Purdy, Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, Kareem Hunt, George Kittle, Jordan Mason (Isaac Guerendo if he is out)

Update: Jordan Mason will play

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 7! Remember to check back daily for more updates and content up until kickoff. You can reach me on X @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @DiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport 24/7/365!

7 months ago 0 comments

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MONDAY NIGHT SHOWDOWN STRATEGY: BUFFALO BILLS at NEW YORK JETS

Dave Gloeckner 7 months ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Week 6 of the NFL season wraps up tonight with Monday Night Football. We almost nailed last night’s winning lineup, just missing out by 5 points. And if you saw, it was another night where a lesser owned CPT was the key pick in DK (Tyrone Tracy). So let’s keep the hot streak going as we have a good one tonight in a battle between AFC East rivals. While we’re all tired of seeing the Jets in primetime, we have a lot of information on them seeing they’ve played in a solo slot three of their first five games. Below is my top DFS showdown picks and strategies for DraftKings and FanDuel, helping you build winning lineups.

Link: https://windailysports.com/daily-fantasy-football-showdown-strategy/

Note on Quarterbacks:

I will not write up the quarterbacks because the wide receiver and tight end section tend to cover the matchups. The QB rankings are at the bottom of the article.

BUFFALO BILLS

Running Back

The Jets are a confounding case on defense. We know they create good pressure and have a solid defensive backfield. So teams tend to run on them more than others. And when done correctly, teams have moved the ball efficiently on the ground against New York. Just go back to Week 1 and watch the Jordan Mason show. And the advanced numbers support that as they rank 31st in rushing defense grading according to PFF and are 21st in rush defense DVOA. But the fantasy numbers tell a slightly different story as they allow the 10th least points to RB’s. That’s partly due to the fact they’ve only allowed two rushing TD’s this season.

The Bills are a tough team to predict, from a running game standpoint, because Josh Allen often skews their numbers. They receive a run blocking grade that is 20th best in the league. But their rush offense is 12th according to DVOA and they average 118.3 yards/game on the ground, which is 15th best in the league. However, Allen is the second leading rusher on the team and when you take away his stats, the Bills RB’s average just 3.81 yards/carry.

As for James Cook, he’s had a solid season but most of his points came in one game, when he scored 3 TD’s against the Dolphins. The confusing part is his snap share. Since week 1, he’s seen the following snap percentages; 47%, 50%, 56% and 59%. Good news is that number is trending up. But it still seems low for what should be the lead back in a good offense. What this means to me, is that in a single game showdown, we could get some sneaky value in the second tier of Bills RB’s.

One major note to consider is that James Cook is questionable for tonight with a foot injury. If he doesn’t go, we could get some real value in Ty Johnson and Ray Davis. I lean Johnson just because he’s had the higher snap counts recently (though Davis has more touches in limited action). Just seems like the Bills trust Johnson more with Davis being a rookie.

Tier 1: James Cook

Tier 2: Ty Johnson, Ray Davis

Wide Receiver

It’s tough to attack the Jets in the passing game due to the presence of Sauce Gardner. But they have more than just Sauce in the defensive backfield. While some WR’s have seen success through the air, the Jets rank #1 in passing yards allowed per game at just 136.6. They also allow the 5th least fantasy points to WR’s. Digging deeper we find the Jets rank #2 in pass coverage according to PFF and have the top-rated cover cornerback in DJ Reed (Sauce is 47th this year).

The Bills have no true #1 WR’s. Which impacts their ability to move the ball down the field as they lack big plays. We have seen their first-round pick, Keon Coleman, grow over the first five weeks as he has a TD in two of the last three weeks. But his target share is limited as seen just 16% of the targets in those three weeks. Leading WR Khalil Shakir is questionable tonight with an ankle injury. That same injury kept him out of Week 5’s game at Houston which led to Josh Allen’s worst completion percentage of his career (9 of 30 for 131 yards passing). If he plays, Shakir provides value as he’s scored at least 10.2 fantasy points in every game this year.

This is a tough area to attack the Jets but I do believe one of the Bills WR’s will be needed in a winning lineup. Mack Hollins is my primary choice of the cheaper options as he had 6 targets in each of the past 2 games.

Tier 1: Khalil Shakir

Tier 2: Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins

Punts: Curtis Samuel

Tight End

The Jets have allowed just 4.1 fantasy points per game to TE’s, which is 2nd least in the league. They’ve allowed just 15 catches for 128 yards and 0 TD’s.

This is an extremely tough matchup for Dalton Kincaid. But he did face the Jets twice last season and brought in 10 catches for 72 yards. Last week, with Shakir out, he led the team with 6 targets. So I like him as receiver #1 tonight for the Bills as Josh Allen’s ability to break the pocket will allow Kincaid to find space in the secondary.

Tier 1: Dalton Kincaid

Tier 2:

Punt/Fadeable:

NEW YORK JETS

Running Back

The Bills are a team that you can beat on the ground. Injuries to the defensive line have been a factor. But they’ve been susceptible to good running games for years now (finished 17th in fantasy points to RB’s in 2023). This season, they are allowing the most points to fantasy RB’s. And that is primarily due to their inability to cover backs in the passing game. On the season, RB’s are averaging 7.2 receptions per game against the Bills. This alone impacts DK rankings due to the nature of their scoring system.

Breece Hall has been a major disappointment as he has just 197 yards rushing this season. In his last two games, he has just 27 yards and has averaged just 5.3 fantasy points per game. I do expect that to change tonight because of the vulnerability of the Bills run defense but also Hall’s ability to catch the ball in the passing game. He’s averaging 4.2 catchers per game.

Tier 1: Breece Hall

Tier 2: Braelon Allen

Wide Receiver

The Bills have good defensive numbers against WR’s. But some of that has been hidden by crooked scoreboards or bad QB play. They do allow 198.4 passing yards per game, 19th most, but we’ve seen better QB’s exploit them (see CJ Stroud last week).

The issues with the Jets passing offense is they play slow. New York is 18th in pace, averaging 27.2 seconds between plays. They also don’t go no-huddle much, ranking 20th at 7.9%. Maybe that all changes tonight with a new play-caller at the helm. But I still think this will be a more deliberate attack, as is the norm with QB Aaron Rodgers who loves to read the defense pre-snap.

Garrett Wilson is the primary as he saw a ridiculous amount of targets last game with 22. Allen Lazard had an impressive 10 targets against Minnesota and leads the team with 4 TD’s. Mike Williams is still finding his room but is ready to have a big game soon.

Tier 1: Garrett Wilson

Tier 2: Allen Lazard, Mike Williams

Tier 3/Cheap Options: Xavier Gipson

Tight End

The Jets primarily use Tyler Conklin at TE. He has 17 receptions on the season but no TD’s. The Bills have been good against TE’s allowing just 10.2 fantasy points per game. Only Cardinals TE Trey McBride has caught more than 4 balls against the Bills. And only Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange has found the endzone. I think more highly of Conklin than others and will have him in some of my lineups I stack a Jets passing attack.

Tier 1: Tyler Conklin

Tier 2:

FanDuel MVP and DraftKings CPT Picks—FNF Showdown

I want a high-usage player at MVP on FanDuel like Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson or Josh Allen. I’m passing on Aaron Rodgers at the MVP position because he doesn’t get enough big plays in the passing game. Remember, you need the highest-scoring player, not the best value. The salaries do not change from flex to MVP on FanDuel, so the value at the MVP is not a priority. Take the points up top.

On DraftKings, you look for the best “value” in the mid to high price range. And in this case, that looks to be on the high price range side. My favorite is Breece Hall but will look at Josh Allen, Garrett Wilson and Dalton Kincaid.

FanDuel

FanDuel MVP Tier 1: Garrett Wilson, Breece Hall, Josh Allen

FDMVP Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook

FDMVP Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Khalil Shakir (questionable), Mack Hollins

DraftKings

DraftKings CPT Tier 1: Breece Hall, Josh Allen

DK CPT Tier 2: Aaron Rodgers, Dalton Kincaid, James Cook, Garrett Wilson

DK CPT Tier 3: Allen Lazard, Mack Hollins

DK CPT Punt:

Flex Rankings Tier 1:

Breece Hall
Garrett Wilson
Josh Allen
James Cook
Dalton Kincaid
Aaron Rodgers
Allen Lazard
Khalil Shakir (questionable)

Flex Rankings Tier 2: (Don’t play more than 1 Tier 2 or Tier 3 guys)

Bills D
Jets D
Mike WIlliams
Keon Coleman
Tyler Conklin
Mack Hollins
Braelon Allen
Tyler Bass
Greg Zuerlein
Ty Johnson

Punts/Fadeable: (Don’t play unless desperate)

Best Rules for the slate:

Breece Hall is my favorite play tonight. He’s been criminally under-used and I look for tonight to be his breakout game.
Josh Allen is a one-man show and will likely be the highest scorer on the slate. I look for him to go over his rushing yards adding value to his DFS stats and points.
Even though it’s a tough matchup on paper, I think Dalton Kincaid will be the #1 Bills receiver.
I do like James Cook, and think he’ll be a factor in the game. I’m just worried about his TD equity. He’ll mostly be in my flex group and not MVP/CPT.
If James Cook is OUT, I’m all in on Ty Johnson. He’ll provide salary relief and see over 60% of snaps.
Don’t be afraid to play one of the Bills less heralded WR’s. I’m leaning Mack Hollins as my favorite of the group.
Aaron Rodgers won me a showdown earlier this year as a CPT. I’m not going back to the well as a CPT but do think you can use him as a flex.
If you fade Garrett Wilson, look to a combo of Allen Lazard and Tyler Conklin. This would be a good zag from what the public will do.
Both Kickers are in play – Total is 41.5 and the weather is nice but there is some wind predicted. Kicking game could be a factor tonight.
Consider one defense in a 4/2 or 5/1 roster alignment

Favorite prop for the game: Aaron Rodgers over 0.5 INTS (-110)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

7 months ago 0 comments

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