NFL DFS

I hope everyone had a Happy Thanksgiving and was able to spend time with family and friends. We at Win Daily are thankful for this whole community and look forward to celebrating future big wins together.

From a betting perspective, I went 2-1 on Thursday bringing my season record to 28-19. With four games already played, the betting pool is much narrower today. But there are still several games I like and see an advantage on. So let’s keep this momentum rolling right into Week 12 Sunday action.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 28-19 (last week 4-0)

NFL BETS WEEK 12

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS +2 at HOUSTON TEXANS

Houston has been one of the best stories of this NFL season. They finished last year with the worst record in football (tied with Chicago) and are hosting a game in Week 12 that with a win would put them in first place in the AFC South. It’s quite a transformation for a team with a rookie Head Coach and rookie QB. But it’s getting tougher each week now that they’ve put themselves on the NFL map. Ever since beating Pittsburgh 30-6 on October 1st, the Texans have played in 6 straight one score games. And while they’ve fared well, going 4-2 in those contests, none were against teams that currently have a winning record.

Today they welcome the Jacksonville Jaguars who surely circled this game after getting beat 37-17 by the Texans in Week 2. The Jags haven’t played their best football game yet this season as they are 2-3 against teams with a winning record. But all those losses came at home as they are 4-0 overall on the road and 4-0 ATS. They also turned it on in the second half of last season when they went 7-1 down the stretch to win the AFC South. That’s a staple of Doug Pederson teams that often find their identity later and build towards a playoff run. With that, I’ll back the hungry Jaguars who know with a win today they will be in complete control of the AFC South.

DENVER BRONCOS -1.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

I’m back at it again with betting a Browns game. Will the undefeated streak continue? What’s for certain is that we’re not running away from perfection but instead chasing it. While I sided with the Browns and DTR last week against their rivals in Pittsburgh, I’m fading them today in their game at Denver.

First, the Denver D has vastly improved over the past 5 weeks. In those games, they’ve allowed a maximum of 22 points and averaged just 17.2/game. And that has been against high powered offenses in KC (twice), Buffalo and Minnesota. The key to this streak has been turnovers as they’ve created 14 in that span. Now they face a rookie QB with just 2 career starts in the mile high altitude. Yes, give me the Broncos today as I side with the reinvigorated defense in a hostile environment versus a very green QB in DTR.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -3.5 at NEW YORK GIANTS

I swore I’d stay away from Patriots games after Mac Jones threw away their last game in London against the Colts. But after the Giants upset of Washington last week, we’re getting a good number here and one I can’t pass up. The Giants had looked like the worst team in football leading up to their game against the Commanders. The GMen had been outscored by the Cowboys and Raiders to a tune of 79-23. But somehow, they found something last week and pulled off a big upset by upending Washington 31-19.

The Giants improved to 2-0 against Washington but are now 1-8 against the rest of the league (their only other win a comeback victory in Week 2 against Arizona). The matter of fact is the Giants are one of the worst teams in the league. Tommy Devito is bad. And the Giants D is ranked 27th overall in DVOA. While we still don’t know who the Patriots are starting at QB, it will be better than Devito. And factor in Bill Belichick’s propensity to have success against rookie QB’s is the reason I’m (tepidly) backing New England today.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS -1.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

The NFC South is once again leading the pack for the worst division in football. Last year’s South winner finished under 0.500 and it looks like we’re headed that way again. And today’s matchup between the Falcons and Saints may very well determine the winner of the South this year.

I’m backing the Saints today as they have the better defense and offense when compared to Atlanta. The Falcons have lost three straight and have decided to go back to Desmond Ridder at QB. Ridder has been sacked 25 times in his 8+ games and has just 6 TD passes thrown. The Saints D will be able to hold down the Falcons O long enough for their offense to put away this game.

SURVIVOR PICK KANSAS CITY CHEIFS

The Chiefs are steaming after another poor offensive performance. I expect that energy to show out on the field today in Las Vegas and the Chiefs to put together a complete game and show the NFL world they are still a team to be reckoned with.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

The Eagles comeback win against the Chiefs on MNF gave us Philly fans a memorable win but also a four-game sweep in our bets for Week 11. But that page has turned, and we now look towards the best football day of the year, Thanksgiving. As always, this is a day to spend time with family and be thankful for life and the important people in it. But we also get a chance to bet some football and maybe even build that bankroll. So with that, I bring you our annual Turkey Day Three Pack!

2023 SEASON RECORD: 26-18 (last week 4-0)

NFL BETS WEEK 12 THANKSGIVING DAY

GREEN BAY PACKERS +8.5 at DETROIT LIONS

The Lions have played on Thanksgiving every year since 1934. And in their record on this holiday is 37-44-2. More importantly, Detroit has lost 6 straight games on Thanksgiving with their last win coming in 2016 against the Minnesota Vikings. But this is a different Lions team as they own the second best record in the NFL at 8-2. Additionally, they own the best record ATS at 7-3.

These teams have played once this year already and the Lions completely dominated that game winning in prime-time at Lambeau by the score of 34-20. And now the Packers are without their star RB Aaron Jones who left last week’s game with a knee injury. Yet, the oddsmakers have kept this line just above 7 points all week yet bringing in 70% of the tickets on Detroit.

Add to that the Lions are 11-2 ATS in their past 13 games against the Packers and 11-1 in their last 12 games ATS against NFC North opponents. It just looks too easy and for that reason I’m going to back Green Bay. If anything, the Packers have been better on the road this year. They are 1-4 away from home but have a plus 7 point differential as their four losses have been by a combined 11 points. As for the Lions, they are good at home but just 3-2 ATS in the Silverdome.

I’ll stick with my principles here and fade the public even though the teams are headed in drastically different directions.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +13 at DALLAS COWBOYS

The Cowboys blowout bad teams (outside of a team from the desert). And that’s even more true at home where their lowest margin of victory has been 20 points (30-10 vs Jets).

But they Boys don’t play as well on Thanksgiving. They are 1-11 ATS in their past 12 games played on Turkey Day. As for the Commanders, they are 5-0 ATS on the road as a dog. Dallas has the firepower to dominate this game, but will they need to? I’ll side with the trends here and back Washington in what could be a late backdoor cover.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ers -7 at SEATTLE SEAHWAKS

This is the main event and one you’ll hopefully be able to stay up and see. The top two teams in the NFC West face-off for the first time this year. Last season, they ended the top two teams in the Division and faced off three times. And the 49ers dominated all three matchups winning by a combined score of 89-43. Looking deeper in the box score, San Fran outgained Seattle by an average of 145 yards per game.

And now Seattle has question marks on offense as Kenneth Walker III and Geno Smith are both questionable. While many expect Smith to play, the question will be how much zip he can get on the ball with an injured elbow. This is the biggest public side of the day as 76% of the bets are coming in on SF. And while the 49ers defense did bother me last week against TB, I expect them to tighten that up and bring the house against a wounded duck taking the snaps for Seattle. So I’m willing to back the public here and side with the team with momentum and one that has dominated their opponent of late.

SURVIVOR PICK DETROIT LIONS

If you still have Dallas available then lock them in and go enjoy your dinner. But for me, the pool of teams is getting shallower. So my best option tomorrow is the Detroit Lions. They’ve shown some moxie of late winning close games against the Chargers and Bears. So even if this game is close in the 4th, I trust the Lions recent wins will help push them over the hump against the Packers. Jordan Love has not been good at closing out games and I can’t see him doing so tomorrow.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We had a good radar on most games last week until each QB we backed threw a critical INT. It was Mac Jones (on one of the worst throws an NFL QB has ever thrown), then Jameis Winston, followed up Zach Wilson putting one right on a Raiders numbers. And that’s what you can get when backing terrible teams. So we move on in a season where we’re still sitting at close to 60% winners. The public ran hot again last week by backing Dallas, Arizona and Minnesota. But the books did win back some money on MNF with the Broncos covering the spread and winning outright. All together, the public was 7-6-1 in Week 10.

This week features just two home dogs and has four games with spreads over 9 points. So it’s a tough week to find good landing spots as home dogs have been paying off this season. But we have four picks below that we’ve identified that fit in our betting landscape.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 22-18 (last week 1-3)

NFL BETS WEEK 11

CLEVELAND BROWNS -2 vs PITTSBURGH STEELERS

Oh how I’ve missed you Cleveland. Over the first four weeks of the season, I bet every Browns game and was 4-0 in those outings. But once they started playing QB roulette, I stayed away from the Dawg Pound and looked for other viable alternatives. However, now that the dust has settled and QB Deshaun Watson is out for the season, I feel like it’s time to go back to Ohio and the lovable Browns. And today, I’m backing them versus the Steelers as they turn the page and start a new season with rookie Dorian Thompson-Robinson under center.

The biggest reason I’m backing the Browns is their defense. We’ve seen this with several teams in the past after they lost their QB, and often the defense has to carry the load and step up their play for the team. And while the Browns D has done that most of the year, I expect them to be even better today against Kenny Pickett and the Steelers. Pittsburgh is ranked just 17th in offense according to DVOA while the Browns are the #1 defense. And take into account the Browns are 4-1 at home and the Steelers lost their one game on the road against a team with a winning record by a score of 30-6.

BUFFALO BILLS -7 vs NY JETS

I realize the Bills are a tough team to back. They are now 5-5 on the season straight up and 3-7 ATS. In fact, they’ve lost 6 straight ATS and haven’t covered a game since their drubbing of Miami in Week 4. But I’ve seen enough of the Jets over the past two weeks as we’ve been subjected to seeing them fail miserably while playing in prime time. In those two games alone, they’ve managed just 18 total points and scored zero TDs. And those were against the 18th (Raiders) and 27th (Chargers) ranked defenses in the league. While Buffalo hasn’t been great defensively, they still suit up a stellar D Line as they are 2nd in the NFL with 33 sacks.

Sometimes the sting of a loss like the one Buffalo had on Monday to Denver, can motivate a team. The Bills have shown the ability to play down to teams but also blow teams out. Buffalo has the 4th highest point differential, +78, while sitting at just 0.500. That type of point difference projects to a 7-3 record.

So I’m backing the talent and fading the ineptitude today. Yes, the Bills aren’t playing good football. But their antennas will be up today as they face a division rival who upset them in Week 1. I expect the blow out version of the Bills to show up today and send the Jets even further back in the standings.

GREEN BAY PACKERS +3.5 vs LOS ANGLES CHARGERS

Green Bay has been a huge disappointment this season. QB Jordan Love has not progressed and threw another crippling INT last week against Pittsburgh in a game they should have won. The Packers are now 1-4 in games decided by six points or less. But their opponent today, the Chargers, are just as bad in close games as they possess a 1-4 record in games decided by 6 points or less. So we have two bad teams, that make bad plays, and find ways to lose. In a situation like this, I’ll take the home team and points as my deciding factor. Because in the end, Matt LaFleur has gained more trust than Brandon Staley. Even though they look like the same floundering team this year.

PHILADELPHIA EAGLES +3 at KANSAS CITY CHIEFS

Being an Eagles fan, I stay away from betting their games or providing betting advice. Unless I feel there is a good opportunity to back them with not just my emotions but money too. And that looks to be the case this Monday Night in KC as I think the Eagles will be motivated to play their best game of the season. For one, Jalen Hurts has the knee brace off which signifies his mobility is back. That was the biggest factor in the Super Bowl as the Chiefs couldn’t stop Hurts because he was elusive in the pocket and broke off big runs when needed.

The other factor here is the Chiefs have not looked good the last few weeks. The once vaunted KC offense has put up just 17 points/game over the past month (4 games). And that includes a defensive touchdown against Miami. The Eagles pass D is bad but their run defense is the best in the league. Looking back at the Super Bowl, the Chiefs ran for 158 yards and had a 6.1 ypc. That ended up playing a huge factor in their win as they kept the Eagles D Line guessing and unable to put pressure on Mahomes. If the Eagles negate the run this week, and turn KC into a one-dimensional passing attack, they will be able to get to Mahomes and make life tough on the Chiefs QB.

SURVIVOR PICK JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS

I still have the Lions left but I’m trying to save them for Thanksgiving against Green Bay. So the next best option available is the Jaguars who face the Titans today in North Florida. With Baltimore losing Mark Andrews and the Dolphins having a tough schedule ahead, the Jaguars could put themselves in pole position for a top 2 seed in the AFC. If they’re to get there, they must come out of Duval with a win today and I expect them to do so against a Titans team that scored just 6 points last week against Tampa.

NOTE: My next favorite plays behind the two above are the Dolphins and Cowboys. I have a pool that started two weeks ago and am using the Dolphins in that one.

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.