NFL DFS

We brought out the brooms last week and finished with a pristine 4-0 record as well as a Survivor win. Not all weeks are built the same but staying consistent and driving in our lane paid off. As for the public, they finally saw a bad week going 3-10 ATS. And normally, when the public loses, that means favorites do as well as they finished 5-8 ATS in Week 8. So, the scales are tipping and it’ll be important for us to still find the right mix of betting spots to attack.

We have a full slate of games this week as no NFL teams are on a bye.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 18-10 (last week 4-0)

NFL BETS WEEK 8

GREEN BAY PACKERS +1.5 vs MINNESOTA VIKINGS

The Packers and Vikings are headed in opposite directions. Since Justin Jefferson’s injury, the Vikings have won two straight games. And in those outings they’ve scored just 41 points but their defense has settled in and allowed just 30 (averaged allowed 24.5 ppg in first 5 weeks). As for Green Bay, they are coming into this contest losers of three straight games and are averaging just 16.6 ppg in that span.

But, streaks are meant to be broken and I like the Packers to come away with a win today, First, the biggest difference in this contest is the Packers O-Line versus the Vikings D-Line. According to PFF, the Packers have the following advantages:

• Packers O-Line Pass Block (7th) vs Vikings D-Line Pass Rush (31st)
• Packers O-Line Sacks Allowed 10 (2nd lowest) vs Vikings D-Line Sacks 19 (14th best)

The other thing I’m factoring is this, the last five teams that beat San Fran, and played the following week (i.e. no bye), went 0-5 ATS in their next game. And that includes a 1-4 straight up record with the only win being last week’s Browns (controversial win at that).

LA CHARGERS -8 vs CHICAGO BEARS

The end of the Brandon Staley is near. Another promising season is once again being wasted away with curious call after curious call. The Chargers are loaded with talent on both sides of the ball yet they sit at 2-4 and 3.5 games behind the Chiefs in the AFC West.

But here’s why I like the Chargers in this spot. In the last 3 seasons, the Chargers are 7-5 ATS when favored by 6 points or more. On the other side, Chicago is 2-5 ATS the last 2 seasons when an underdog of 7 points or more. More importantly, they are 0-4 ATS the week following a straight up win.

From a football standpoint, both defenses are bad and rank 29th (CHI) and 28th (LAC) respectively in DVOA. But the difference is on offense where the Bears are ranked 25th in DVOA and the Chargers are 8th. In order to cover a big spread like this, there needs to be a team that can score and has a top offense. We have that in this case and the last point is, I’m not putting money on Tyler Bagent on the road.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -5 vs CINCINNATI BENGALS

The 49ers are coming back west after losing two consecutive games to mediocre teams. But home is where the heart is, and I expect the 49ers to get their mojo back in a big way today. San Francisco is 3-0 SU and ATS at home this year with their average score being 36-13 (outscored their opponents 107-38). As for Cincy, outside of their road win at Arizona, they laid two duds away from home losing to the Browns 24-3 and Titans 27-3.

The Bengals are coming off a bye, but there’s still something amiss with their offense which ranks 23rd in DVOA. They’ve scored more than 20 points just twice this season. The 49ers are going to feast against a below average O-Line today and give Burrow little time to throw.

CAROLINA PANTHERS +3.5 vs HOUSTON TEXANS

The Panthers have allowed 42 points in consecutive games. So the bye week was needed in order to hit the reset button and figure out their deficiencies. This unit was a strength last season but has now become one of the worst units in football as shown with the 32nd ranked rush defense. But fortunately for Carolina, in comes a Houston rushing offense that is ranked 30th in DVOA. So weakness meets weakness here which could ultimately decide the difference.

As we know, this is a battle between the top two QBs selected in the 2023 NFL Draft. And CJ Stroud has the upper hand so far but a win today could sway things for Bryce Young. As for the Texans, they are 1-2 ATS and 1-2 SU on the road this season with their one win coming in Week 3 against the Jags.

Lastly, while I don’t consider him a good head coach, Frank Reich is 4-0 ATS after a bye week. The Panthers are going to bite eventually, and they have some motivation this week to do so. Give me Carolina as this number has risen past a key number. This is a pass for me at three points or less.

SURVIVOR PICK BALTIMORE RAVENS

Lamar Jackson is 17-1 against NFC opponents in his career. Good enough for me to take a road team today.

If you don’t have Baltimore, my other recommendations are:

• LA Chargers
• Detroit Lions
• Dallas Cowboys

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We ended up with a split last week but missed another winning week by 0.5 points as the Seahawks gave a game away against Cincy. The Sea Birds had four possessions inside the 20 in the 4th quarter and mustered only three points. But those are the breaks and we’ll look to bounce back in Week 7. There are six teams on bye this week, and with a Thursday game already played, that means we have just 12 games left to choose from.

We saw the books bounce back last week as the public went just 6-9 ATS. Some of the big results for Vegas were the NY Jets (+6), Cleveland (+10) and NY Giants (+14.5). It was the first week we’ve seen multiple double digit dogs cover.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 14-10 (last week 2-2)

NFL BETS WEEK 7

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS +3.5 vs CLEVELAND BROWNS

The Browns pulled off the upset of the NFL Season last week as they took down the 49ers to hand San Fran its first loss of the season. Backup QB PJ Walker managed the game well and RB Kareem Hunt produced big plays in the running game. But it was a dominant defensive effort as the Browns held the 49ers to just 215 total yards. The Colts, on the other hand, slept walked through 3 quarters as they fell to their division rivals, the Jacksonville Jaguars, by a count of 37-20.

So we have two teams heading in opposite directions. But yet, I like the home dogs in this one and here’s why. First, the Browns have played just one road game this season and they lost that one to the Steelers. They haven’t played a road game in over a month which is a significant factor to handicap. They’ve also had the distraction of whether QB Deshaun Watson will toughen it up and play this week. His status is still questionable.

Lastly, the Colts are 3-1 outside of playing Jacksonville. They’ve beaten the Ravens, another AFC North team, with Gardner Minshew at QB. Their biggest weakness is their defense, but the Browns biggest weakness is offense. The Browns rank 22nd in Offensive DVOA and 20th in yards per game. The Browns passing game is even worse, ranking 31st in both DVOA and passing yards per game.

This game has a total of 41, one of the lower on the slate, so in a matchup that looks to be even, I’ll take the points and the Colts.

BALTIMORE RAVENS -3 vs DETROIT LIONS

I’ve been good with backing Detroit this season until last week when they won at Tampa. Their defensive prowess was on display as they made Baker Mayfield look like……Baker Mayfield. But this week, they have a much more challenging task trying to contain Lamar Jackson. The Ravens won in London last week against the Titans and spent as little time overseas as possible as they flew in on Friday and left immediately after their win. That doesn’t work for everyone, but it did for John Harbaugh’s team. So unlike week’s past, where I tried to fade a team coming back from Europe, I am actually backing the Ravens because of their unique travel plans.

Add to that, the Lions are on their 2nd straight road game and 3rd in four weeks. They are without their leading rusher as well as some other key components. While the Lions are third overall in total defensive DVOA, the Ravens are second. With the defensive stalemate, and the teams having similar offenses, I look at this game to be a battle of QB’s and coaches. And in both situations, I favor the Ravens. The Lions are very good and will be in the Super Bowl talk all season, but this is a step up in class and one in which Baltimore will be focused to take advantage of.

ATLANTA FALCONS +2.5 at TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

No NFL spread this week has moved more than the game between the Falcons and Bucs. Atlanta opened as a small favorite but has now been pushed to a 2.5-point underdog. The optics are bad in Atlanta, as they are coming off two poor performances in which their QB struggled. And since Week 1, they are now 0-5 ATS. Last week’s loss to Washington was a combination of several things, but the main reason was a 0-3 turnover ratio.

The Bucs on the other hand have beaten the Vikings, Bears and Saints. Not necessarily a murder’s row of teams. And the one area in which Atlanta struggles, pass defense, is not particularly the strength of the Bucs. Add to that, the public is hammering Tampa with 65% of the bets and 65% of the money coming in on Bucs. I’ll fade them here as we have the classic case of recency bias with Atlanta struggling and the Bucs sitting at 3-2 and atop the NFC South.

KANSAS CITY -5 vs LA CHARGERS

The Chargers did Chargers things again last Monday night as they threw the game away versus the Dallas Cowboys. With a potential game winning drive, QB Justin Herbert threw a critical interception allowing the Boys to come home with a much needed road victory.

In Mahomes career, he is 7-2 against the Chargers with a 99,9 passer rating. Last season he went 2-0 against LA and threw for 574 yards eith 5 TDs and 0 INT’s. While he owns the Broncos and Raiders, he tends to play his best ball against LA. I just can’t trust Brandon Staley, or Justin Herbert, in a close game against Andy Reid and Mahomes. The Chiefs have not impressed the public bettors of late but are 4-2 ATS this season including 2-1 at home. This is a chance for KC to put a stranglehold on the AFC West Division Title for an 8th straight season. And I expect them to take full advantage of that opportunity.

SURVIVOR PICK SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

At this point, you have probably taken the 49ers and Chiefs. So, we have to look outside the normal NFL powerhouses for our survivor play and we have a good one with Seattle. The Cardinals, after their nice start, have been outscored 95-45 over the past 3 weeks. And the Seahawks won both games by double digits against Arizona last season.

The only other play I feel that has some upside is the Washington Commanders. But I took them in Week 1 against Arizona so they’re off the board for me.

Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

We rebounded nicely in Week 5 of the NFL by winning three of our four bets. I’m now 12-8 on the season with a 60% win rate. While that’s solid, the public went bananas against the books by going 12-2 ATS last week (based on # of bets placed). The only true win that Vegas had was in the England game where the Jaguars covered and won outright as a dog against Buffalo. That makes four straight winning weeks for the public so tread carefully this week, or ride the wave.

Looking as season long data, there has been no separation between favorites and underdogs as they are split down the middle with an identical 38-38-2 record ATS. We have seen the road teams cover slightly more often than the home teams, with a record of 40-36-2. But more impressively, the public has won at a 62.5% clip.

2023 SEASON RECORD: 12-8 (last week 3-1)

NFL BETS WEEK 6

SEATTLE SEAHAWKS +3.5 at CINCINNATI BENGALS

I backed the Bengals last week and they came through in a big way by beating the Cardinals by 14 points. That game prompted post-game quotes from Ja’Marr Chase that he’s always open like a 7-11 store. Typical wide receiver talk and it was good to see Cincinnati finally feed their star the ball. But there’s trouble lying this week with Seattle. First, the Seahawks are coming off a bye week and are fresh coming across the country. Secondly, in their last game against the Giants, they sacked QB Daniel Jones eleven times. And while the Giants grade as the lowest pass blocking unit, the Bengals aren’t much better as they are the 7th worst OL in pass blocking.

The Seahawks have allowed a few big games to WR’s this season, but they own the 5th best defensive line according to pass rush rate. When we flip to the other sides of the ball, Seattle owns the 11th best run block offensive grade but the Bengals have the 3rd worst rushing defense in the NFL according to DVOA. The week off, plus the big advantage at the line of scrimmage, will keep the Seahawks in this game if not see them win it outright.

TAMPA BAY BUCS +3 vs DETROIT LIONS

The Buccaneers, like the Seahawks above, are coming off a bye-week. They also had an impressive win before getting a week off to rest as they smoked the New Orleans Saints in Week 4. And now that they’ve bottle up that good energy for 2 weeks, they get to uncork it against a Detroit team that is coming in somewhat short-handed. That’s because they’ve already ruled out RB Jahmyr Gibbs and LG Jonah Jackson. Additionally, rookie TE Sam LaPorta is listed as questionable. That would be a huge blow to a passing game that will be sorely needed against the Bucs who are rated as the 2nd best pass defense according to DVOA.

And while that’s just a small piece of the game side of things, the real reason I’m backing Tampa is due to the money and bets coming in as of this writing. Detroit opened as a 3.5 point favorite and has 76% of the bets and 54% of the money. Yet, the spread has moved in Tampa’s favor down to 3. Yes, that may be partly due to the aforementioned injuries, but it’s also a sign Vegas is not willing to give the hook to Tampa backers even though that’s the side they need. When we see a situation like this, they’re seeing sharp money come in on one side, and that’s likely the case here in Tampa. I’ll ride with the sharps, as well as the Creamsicle jerseys, this weekend in Tampa.

HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 vs NEW ORLEANS SAINTS

Here’s the first game where I will back the public. The Houston Texans have competed in every game to date and could easily be 3-2 and tied for the AFC South lead. But they let one get away last week against the Falcons and lost on a last-second FG. And they now move onto another NFC South opponent in the New Orleans Saints. The difference in this one is that they are home where they are 1-1 ATS and 1-1 SU (opposed to 1-2 SU on the road).

What I like in this one is that fact that is the Saints are 1-3-1 ATS on the season. Their first cover of the season was last week at New England where they got a defensive touchdown early and held the Patriots to just 156 total yards of offense. But this isn’t Mac Jones as the Texans have only turned the ball over twice this season. The Saints, on the other hand, are 6th in the NFL in takeaways with nine. Something will have to give in this one and if the Saints aren’t creating TOs then the Texans will be able to move the ball and put points on the board.

WASHINGTON COMMANDERS +2.5 at ATLANTA FALCONS

Honestly, I have no idea how this spread is just two points. But then I looked into a few factors and started to realize we have a live dog on our hands with Washington. First off, Atlanta covered the spread in Week 1 versus Carolina but is 0-4 ATS since that game. Secondly, Washington has played just two games on the road but is 2-0 ATS away from home. The Commanders are coming off an embarrassing defeat to the Bears but have extra days to right the ship since their last game was a Thursday Night Football game. Add to that Atlanta has won two games at home where they were favorites of 3 points or less, and failed to cover in both.

I see the odds stacking up nicely here for Washington to move the ball in the air against the Falcons who rank 25th in the NFL in passing defense DVOA. And Washington’s defensive weakness is Atlanta’s issue as well, as both struggle in the passing game. Give me the Commanders to continue their road efficiency and pull of the upset in the ATL.

SURVIVOR PICK BUFFALO BILLS

For transparency, I took the Kansas City Chiefs on TNF and kept my Survivor Pool alive without having to sweat a Sunday or Monday game. So, to be short here, my favorite picks outside of that are in the following order:

• Buffalo Bills vs NYG: Bills get Tyrod Taylor this week. And they’re coming off a loss. This one could get ugly.
• Miami Dolphins vs Carolina: The Dolphins are averaging 55.5 points per game at home. Carolina has the worst defense in football according to DVOA. Good luck Frank Reich.
• San Francisco 49ers at Cleveland: With DeShaun Watson out, the Browns turn to Dorian-Thompson Robinson. DTR threw three INT’s in backup duty for Watson last game. And now he faces the best defense in football. Ouch.
• LA Rams vs Arizona: The Rams impressed me last week. If they can keep a clean pocket for Stafford, he can still pick you apart. And with the return of Cooper Kupp, that should happen this week in LA. Cardinals are beat up and can keep it close. This is a risky pick but one that could reap benefits later in the season if you’re able to save a top team like the 49ers, Dolphins or Bills.

Good luck all and keep the win streak alive!

Now that you finished reading the NFL BETS & SURVIVOR POOL PICKS article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.