Tag:

NFL DFS

Week 7 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

A new week is upon us, and another chance to take advantage of some great matchups! Bye weeks are in full force, so ownership will continue to be driven up in some spots. Let’s find ourselves some value and upside for Week 7!

Be sure to jump into the WinDailySports Discord, and take advantage of our cheat sheets and projections while you build your lineups for Week 7 on FanDuel and DraftKings! The season is FLYING by, and we are approaching the midway point FAST!

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

Another week, another opportunity to attack Seattle with a TE. While Everett has done little to nothing over the last two weeks (6-31 on 10 targets), this is a prime spot for him. He missed practice on Wednesday with an illness, so keep an eye on him throughout the week. I’m not expecting any illness to be significant enough to keep him out on Sunday. Fellow TE Donald Parham is in the concussion protocol, so Everett could end up with even more snaps and opportunities.

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. The Seahawks are allowing over 24 fantasy points per game to opposing TE. Keenan Allen has a chance to return this week, but that likely won’t affect Everett too much. This game easily has the highest total of the week at 51.5 points. You’re going to want some shares of this game. FanDuel seems to have priced him accordingly for this elite matchup, but he is still dirt cheap on DraftKings. Let’s continue to smash the Seahawks with TE!

Robert Tonyan, Packers ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Aaron Rodgers can’t seem to trust any of the WR in the Packers offense, and has now lost Randall Cobb for at least the next few weeks. Tonyan stepped up in a big way last week against the Jets, and he was the only one who seemed to show up for the game.

Tonyan was a machine last week, hauling in 10 of 12 targets for 90 yards. While game script dictated some of that, the Packers have struggled mightily on offense overall. Green Bay is favored by 4.5 points right now in this one. The team is already sitting two games behind Minnesota, and each conference game is near a must-win at this stage of the season for a team with Super Bowl aspirations (although count me OUT as a believer in this squad).

Daniel Bellinger, Giants ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)

One of the biggest surprises on the team who is the biggest surprise in the NFL this season is Bellinger. He has provided value on few opportunities over the last few weeks, finding the end zone in each of the last two games. He has increased his snap rate from 74% to 94% over that short span. The Jags have actually been tough on opposing TE, but opportunity and price put Bellinger firmly in play for me here.

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

Rostering the best TE in the NFL seems like a viable strategy, regardless of matchup. The 49ers have allowed less than eight fantasy points per game to opposing TE, but that doesn’t matter here. Kelce is matchup-proof, as evidenced by his 8-108 line against the Bills last week. He is averaging almost nine targets per game, has Patrick Mahomes under center, anything else you need to hear? Kelce always has slate-breaking upside.

David Njoku, Browns ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Did you know that Njoku is the ONLY TE in the NFL who has 50+ yards in each of the last four weeks? Of course you did. In fact, he has 58+ in all of those games, and 73+ in three of four. He has been a borderline elite fantasy option at the position over the last month, and I don’t see that changing this week.

Only the Patriots and Raiders have allowed more TD to opposing TE than the Ravens (4). Njoku and the Browns are in desperation mode right now following three straight losses. Njoku has been the most consistent player on the offense of late (save for maybe Nick Chubb), and I’m all for the volume once again. He has 29 targets over the last month, and although he has only found the end zone once over that span, he has an elite floor. He makes sense as a cash game play if you aren’t paying up for Kelce or Mark Andrews.

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

Week 7 NFL Fantasy DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Tight Ends

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($4,000 DraftKings, $6,300 FanDuel)

Robert Tonyan, Packers ($4,100 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Daniel Bellinger, Giants ($3,400 DraftKings, $5,100 FanDuel)

Travis Kelce, Chiefs ($8,000 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)

David Njoku, Browns ($4,200 DraftKings, $5,700 FanDuel)

Come find me on Twitter and let’s chat some football! Good luck in Week 7, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

Daily Fantasy Sports NFL Premium

NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 7

Capper Steve 3 years ago

written by Capper Steve

Week 7 couldn’t get here any sooner, with so many upsets in Week 6 putting some of us through worse torture than a root canal. Brady came up short against a practice squad secondary in Pittsburgh, and Kyler and Geno just could not find the endzone. What was supposed to be more of a shoot-out ended up being a kicker and defensive battle. The byes are even more brutal this go-round, as we lose our cash game quarterback locks of Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts. But we’re all in the same boat and we’ll work with what we have on this 11-game slate. The projection model will always be our crutch to lean on when lineup building, but here are a few QBs to think about in the meantime. As usual, you can tag me @jdicarlo78 or anyone else in the crew at WinDaily in our expert chat on Discord for any help…let’s turn the page and break down these Week 7 QBs!

Let’s check out our NFL Week 7 DFS Quarterbacks!

Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

Jackson gave up another loss last week forcing the ball out and leading to a costly interception that ended in the game-winning touchdown by the Giants. On Sunday Lamar and the Ravens will welcome their division rival Cleveland Browns with its 30th DVOA in total defense, 29th in rushing DVOA, and allow an average of 28 points per game. Jackson will be in a get-right game to get back on a Browns’ team who look to have given up on playing defense this year.

Patrick Mahomes ($7,800 DraftKings/$8,500 FanDuel)

The second of the elite quarterbacks from Week 6 to lose by throwing a pick. Week 7 will be an uphill fight for Mahomes traveling to the Bay Area. The Niners have been the kiss of death to opposing offenses this season but lost 6 players on defense due to injury last week, including second-year safety Talanoa Hufanga. Stay up to speed on the Niners’ injury report, but either way, Mahomes will bring his “A” game in a KC pass-heavy offense that averages close to 40 pass attempts per game.

Joe Burrow ($6,900 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)

Joe “Cool” may still be on cloud nine after his 4 total touchdown game back home in Louisiana. Atlanta is also coming off a big win against the Niners and has been tough in every game this year. Thanks to the Falcon corners Casey Hayward and AJ Terrell, opposing quarterbacks and receivers have feasted on a 31st DVOA passing defense. Joe should bring some of that Week 6 magic home to Cinci. against an Atlanta team who refuses to lie down to their opponents.

Justin Herbert ($7,200 DraftKings/$8,100 FanDuel)

Herbert hasn’t looked like himself since his rib injury in Week 1, only putting up 9 fantasy points at home to Denver on Monday night. Denver’s D is stacked, so don’t sweat Herbert in that game. He needs his boy Keenan Allen back desperately, who may be available this weekend after a long-awaited hamstring recovery. Allen back on the field opposite Mike Williams may be just what the doctor ordered to get Herbert rejuvenated on Sunday, and facing a soft Seattle secondary (30th in DVOA for total points allowed) would be the perfect remedy.

Dak Prescott ($6,700 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

If Dak is back, he may be worth a shot in a tournament. Since Week 2 he’s watched backup Cooper Rush manage a 4-1 record from the sidelines, and is itching to get back under center. The Cowboys host Detroit this weekend in what could be a smash spot at quarterback. The Lions for 2022 has been the most fantasy-friendly team to every opposing position, 30th in DVOA to quarterbacks. If he does get cleared he may be worth the risk of a little rust to put up big numbers back at the helm.

Tom Brady ($6,300 DraftKings/$7,400 FanDuel)

The GOAT underperformed in Pittsburgh last week, even with its string of injuries at secondary. Brady may have left his game at Robert Kraft’s wedding the night before up in New England, who knows. Hopefully, the hangover wore off by now and he can get back on track to chucking touchdowns and beating up on inferior defenses. The Panthers have been dominated by Brady since he arrived in the NFC South, in two meetings last season he threw for over 550 yards and 4 touchdowns. The Goat should easily payoff his mid-range salary for this slate.

Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)

There are two ways Jimmy can ball out against Kansas City in a rematch of the 2019 Super Bowl. Whether he is playing from behind or playing to keep up with Mahomes and the Chiefs, Garoppolo will need to add extra icy hot his shoulder after this game. The Kansas City defense has allowed the second most fantasy points to contending quarterbacks this year. Also, keep up with San Fran’s injuries on defense. If they’re still less than 100 percent on Sunday, Jimmy G’s workload will far exceed the cheap price tag.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 7. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us in whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Hit me up in our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 always here to help on our Discord @Jdicarlo78. Fellas let’s keep the green screens coming!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 6 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

Another week of football, another prime-time game for Russell Wilson and the Broncos. Let’s hope the Chargers can score some points, because Wilson seems incapable of finding the end zone. The Chargers are favored by 4.5 points in this one with a total hovering around 46. Let’s find ourselves some value and upside to cash in on Monday Night Football.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Captain/MVP Plays

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($17,100 DraftKings, $15,500 FanDuel)

Ekeler is coming off back-to-back monster performances, and is in a solid spot once again. He is still seeing just under 60% of snaps on a weekly basis, but his usage has been elite. Last week, he totaled 199 scrimmage yards and a pair of touchdowns on 20 opportunities. That was on the heels of a 109-yard, three-score game on 19 touches.

Denver has actually been decent against opposing RB, ranking 10th in fantasy points allowed. That said, Ekeler should be in line to see around 20 touches again, and has averaged over seven targets per game over the last four weeks. He has one of the highest floors of any player in this game, and his ceiling is massive. With Keenan Allen once again doubtful to play, he will continue to be the focal point of the offense. He will be popular, but you’re going to want exposure here.

Courtland Sutton, Broncos ($12,600 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

In DFS, volume is king, and Sutton continues to see a ton of looks from Russell Wilson. In fact, Wilson continues to throw to Sutton even when he is blanketed and other WR are WIDE OPEN. That matters little here, and I will continue to capitalize on Sutton’s opportunities.

The Chargers rank 23rd in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR, and Denver will need every bit of help they can get on offense. Sutton averages over nine targets per game, and I’m expecting Wilson to continue to look his way Monday Night.

Mike Boone, Broncos ($7,200 DraftKings, $7,500 FanDuel)

Melvin Gordon has hardly practiced all week, and although it seems like he will play, Boone makes for a fantastic leverage play here. He had 85 total yards on 10 touches last week. Gordon did see 56% of the snaps, but Boone came in with a solid 41%. Either way, at Boone’s price, he may just be a lock for me.

The Chargers rank dead last in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB. Gordon is a fine play in his own right, but I’ll take the discount with Boone, especially with Gordon being less than 100%.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($5,600 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Sure, Everett saw only three targets last week, but the Chargers didn’t need much from him. Austin Ekeler ran wild, and the passing game was secondary. Prior to last week, Everett had seen 22 targets over the previous three games. As I mentioned above, Keenan Allen is very unlikely to play again, so there will be more opportunities for Mr. Everett.

The Broncos have been solid against TE, but Everett is still averaging over 10 DraftKings points per game, even after last week’s disappointment. His price tag is ideal. Fire him up as a low-risk, medium-reward type of play.

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($11,000 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Herbert has thrown for only four scores in his last three games, but volume should be here in this one. The Broncos aren’t the walk in the park against the run that the Browns were, so the Chargers will need him to step up. Pairing him with Mike Williams will lock in some big upside on MNF. Williams has been a monster the last two weeks, hauling in 17 of 24 targets for 254 yards. He hasn’t found the end zone in either game, but I’m willing to bet that changes on Monday Night. PLAY MIKE WILLIAMS!

Other Options

Jerry Jeudy is always a downfield threat, and I’m expecting the Chargers to put up some points in this one. Denver may just be playing from behind again, and Wilson will be looking his way often if that’s the case. I’m not excited about playing Russell Wilson at all…he is banged up and at his price tag, there are options I like more here. It also seems quite possible that he isn’t good at football anymore.

I’m certainly not expecting Joshua Kelley to see 12 touches again in this one, but his price tag is cheap. He could steal some touches, and you will be looking to differentiate where you can in this one.

Dustin Hopkins has returned, and Brandon McManus could be the stars star of the show if the Broncos continue to be terrible in prime time. Kickers are cheap, especially on DraftKings. Fill out your lineups with some legs on MNF.

A game-changer could be Latavius Murray…Gordon is banged up and I think there’s a much higher chance Murray steals goal-line work than Mike Boone. Then again, the Broncos need to GET to the goal line for that to happen. He is basically free on DraftKings.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL Week 6 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Justin Elick 3 years ago

written by Justin Elick

The Eagles are favored by about a touchdown in what is a highly anticipated matchup in the very competitive NFC East. While it isn’t confirmed yet, it seems very unlikely that Dak Prescott returns for this one. I see Dallas having a tough time through the air here, but there are some values to take advantage of here as well. Let’s dig in.

Captain/MVP Plays

Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($17,700 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

If it weren’t for some guy named Josh Allen, Hurts may be the top fantasy QB in the NFL. The Cowboys defense has been tremendous this season, allowing just under 12 fantasy points per game to opposing QB. That doesn’t concern me at all on a Showdown slate.

The crazy thing is that Hurts has ZERO touchdown passes in three of five games this season, but his ability to find the end zone on the ground makes that a moot point. In fact, ONLY Nick Chubb (7) has more rushing scores this season than Hurts’ six. Of course the matchup is less than ideal, but Hurts is a fantasy machine. He is very near a must-play on a showdown slate like this one. Don’t overthink it. I’ll help you find some value.

Dallas Goedert, Eagles ($10,200 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

If you’re looking to differentiate your lineups, then Dallas could fit the bill against Dallas in the bonus spot. He has been a target hog of late, and has caught 13 of 15 targets in his last two games for 167 yards. He has 60+ yards in all but one game this season, and has built a solid rapport with Hurts. Dallas has been tough against TE, but they have been tough across the board. Give him a look in all formats.

Tony Pollard, Cowboys ($12,000 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

FREE TONY POLLARD! He once again was the best back for the Cowboys, but once again saw less opportunity than Jerry Jones’ BFF Ezekiel Elliott. The pure stubbornness of the Cowboys is the only thing holding Pollard back from a monster breakout.

The Eagles rank 14th in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB, and he is clearly the more explosive back here. He has 86+ yards in two of his last three games, and I have very little faith in Cooper Rush here. The Cowboys will need to establish the run to keep this one close, and you all know that I have more faith in Pollard than the ghost of Zeke.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

AJ Brown, Eagles ($15,900 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Only Cooper Kupp has a higher PFF matchup grade than Brown (97) this week, and his upside is still massive, despite the perceived difficult matchup. Trevon Diggs is only as good as his interceptions, and I truly believe that Brown beats him one-on-one more often than not. I think the Eagles make a statement in this one, and Brown has become one of the best in the game. He is averaging nine targets per game, and needs to be in consideration for this one. However, I prefer…

DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($7,400 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

Smith may just be a lock for me on DraftKings in this one. His price is reasonable, and there is a real chance that he could end up being one of the top scorers in this game. His inconsistent stat lines may force some ownership elsewhere, but the truth of the matter is that he has seen 11+ targets in two of his last three games. Get yourself some shares!

CeeDee Lamb, Cowboys ($9,800 DraftKings, $13,000 FanDuel)

Lamb looks like he is trending the right direction in this one. That said, I’m not overly excited about him here. The talent is elite, of course, but the matchup is not. He will see plenty of Darius Slay, and he has absolutely dominated this season. I tend to side with the savvy veteran over youth here. If Dak Prescott were playing, it would be a different story. Truth be told, I’m not high on Dallas at all in this one. You will want some exposure to Lamb, as the Cowboys will need his production to keep this one close. Just don’t expect a ceiling game. I certainly am not.

Other Options

Cooper Rush has exceeded 12.4 DraftKings points just once this season. I won’t be playing him at all here. The Cowboys have done a great job of keeping him out of positions where he has to force throws, but that may change here. The Eagles defense is aggressive, and I NEED some Philly defense in this one.

Miles Sanders is a great play here, as he has been very game-script dependent for his production. If you believe the Eagles win this one handily (I do), then Sanders could be in for a massive day.

Price and matchup considered, I prefer Michael Gallup to Lamb here. He is cheap, and could be the beneficiary of Slay working on Lamb much of the evening.

Brett Maher has been ELITE this season, making 13/14 FG attempts. Dallas has and will continue to struggle finishing drives with Rush under center. He is a fantastic play across the board, and his counterpart Jake Elliott looks nice as well. I don’t mind throwing both kickers in here to jam in some top-tier guys.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

Stix Picks: Week 6 NFL DFS GPP

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive!” For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice before building your NFL DFS GPP lineups. Similar to the cash article, I’ll keep this article more brief and discuss in further detail in Discord due to a week of travel.

If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a potential splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat (all of which are in the cash game article).

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

It’s a tough week to be contrarian in my opinion. The pay-up for Josh Allen is damn-near bulletproof, while the value in Geno Smith against the Cardinals’ defense is also a fantastic spot. I’m just not confident there is much value getting different at the quarterback position this week. If I’m not using Allen or Smith, here’s where I’ll be:

Lamar Jackson (10% ownership projection)- Only true quarterback on the slate who can regularly push the upside of a Josh Allen ceiling game. Stack Options: Mark Andrews, Devin Duvernay, JK Dobbins
Kyler Murray (5% ownership projection) – Similar situation as Lamar Jackson but involved in a game with a significant higher total and a Seattle defense that grades 31st in overall Defense DVOA. Stack Options: Marquise Brown, Zach Ertz, Rondale Moore, Eno Benjamin
Tom Brady (10% ownership projection) – Pittsburgh’s secondary is depleted and you know what you’re getting with Brady on a weekly basis (40+ pass attempts) for your NFL DFS GPP lineups. If anyone is going to make up the extra rushing fantasy points of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray, it’s Tom Brady with the 4 passing touchdown upside. Stack Options: Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Leonard Fournette, Cameron Brate

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers

NFL DFS GPP Running Backs

The running back position is where I truly believe we can get different. Yes, the value on Eno Benjamin is arguably impossible to pass up, but do we really need to go all in on 40% owned Rhamondre Stevenson, Kenneth Walker, and Darrell Henderson? Maybe your answer to that question is yes… just get different elsewhere. If you’re trying to get different at running back, here are the AETY Model options:

Nick Chubb (5% ownership projection) – the clear RB1 if you’re paying up. New England will likely scheme to slow him down, but their run defense has been brutal all year long. It’s Nick Chubb.
Leonard Fournette (10% ownership projection)
Devin Singletary (8% ownership projection) – Probably my favorite NFL DFS GPP running back on the slate. Clear leverage off of the Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs chalk stack and in a fantastic matchup against the blitz-heavy and Cover-4 Kansas City defense. There will be plenty of action in the flats this weekend for Devin Singletary but if he can get in the box, he could be a slate changing play.
JK Dobbins (1% ownership projection) – Priced right there with the Kenneth Walker and Darrell Henderson’s of the world with just as much touchdown equity (if not more). There is certainly risk to playing Dobbins as the snap share is always going to be questionable, but the AETY Model loves this spot for Dobbins against a bottom-8 run defense in the Giants.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall, Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon

NFL DFS GPP Wide Receivers

Everyone from the Cash Game Checkdown is in play for your NFL DFS GPP builds. Similar to the Quarterback position, sometimes great plays are just great plays. Here are some of the others I’ll be taking a look at to get different in my builds:

Cooper Kupp (10% ownership projection) – 10% Cooper Kupp is all we need to say.
Ja’Maar Chase (8% ownership projection) – No Tee Higgins. No Marshon Lattimore. Significantly less ownership with just as much upside as Stefon Diggs for $500 less on DraftKings.
Marquise Brown (5% ownership projection) – As everyone plays the Eno Benjamin, Zach Ertz, and Rondale Moore value, the wide receiver with the best matchup on the slate and SECOND in the NFL in targets is going unowned in NFL DFS GPP contests. Marquise Brown is a priority play for me in Week 6.
Mike Evans (5% ownership projection) – Slate breaking upside in this matchup against the Steelers. The big plays will be there on Sunday for Mike Evans and the ownership will solely go to Chris Godwin.
DK Metcalf (15% ownership projection) – Not under the radar by any means, but he’s damn-near a must-play on FanDuel and a perfect leverage pivot off of Tyler Lockett chalk week. Metcalf has 50% of the Seattle red-zone targets so far this season… A big game is coming.
Devin Duvernay (2% ownership) – Loved the usage last week while Bateman was out with an injury. Bateman is out again this week leaving a fantastic matchup on the inside of this Giants’ secondary for the swiss army knife of Devin Duvernay.
Mecole Hardman (1% ownership) – My typical Mecole Hardman love but this is a fantastic buy-low spot as the Chiefs will likely be chasing points in this back-and-forth matchup against the Bills. I don’t really love any Chiefs’ wideout this week, so I don’t hate going the cheap route with a 1% Hardman.

Honorable Mention: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Allen Lazard, Wan’Dale Robinson

NFL DFS GPP Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce (10% ownership projection)
Mark Andrews (12% ownership projection)
Zach Ertz (8% ownership projection)
Dawson Knox (5% ownership projection) – Cheapest stack option for Josh Allen and a solid matchup against the zone blitz defense of the Chiefs. A very low floor, but a nice salary saving upside option for NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Due to a week-long work trip, I’ll keep this week’s NFL DFS Cash Game article a bit more brief. We can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, TONS of value at the running back position.
Great QB pool on the main slate this week. There should be no need to get cute at that position!
Injury and weather concerns look relatively clean this week. Check back on Sunday morning for any updates!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,200 FD) – Obvious pay-up and highest floor/ceiling combo on the slate.
Lamar Jackson ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – Similar situation as Josh Allen, but Allen is the clear pay-up on the slate with the game total against the Chiefs sitting at 53+ points and ownership all flocking to Josh Allen.
Geno Smith ($5,700 DK / $7,400 FD) – Horrific pricing on DraftKings, but the clear value for your NFL DFS cash game lineups if you wish to pay-down.

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($7,700 DK / $8,800 FD)
Rhamondre Stevenson ($6,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – If Damien Harris is OUT, Stevenson is in an incredible spot in a matchup against the 32nd ranked run defense (DVOA). He’ll likely be 70% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership.
Kenneth Walker ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD) – No Rashaad Penny.
Darrell Henderson ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – No Cam Akers, this is now Henderson’s backfield as a 10-point home-favorite.
Eno Benjamin ($4,600 DK / $6,300 FD) – No James Conner. No Darrel Williams. Take the freesquare.

Honorable Mention: Breece Hall, Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,700 DK / $9,400 FD)
Stefon Diggs ($8,400 DK / $8,900 FD)
Marquise Brown ($7,200 DK / $8,200 FD) – One of my favorite plays on this slate against the Seattle secondary, but likely best saved for GPP builds.
DK Metcalf ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) / Tyler Lockett ($5,600 DK / $7,500 FD) – on DraftKings, Lockett is going to be 60% or higher in ownership. Take the savings there and use Metcalf on FanDuel for your NFL DFS cash game lineups.
Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD) – The Steelers’ secondary is absolutely depleted this week.
Drake London ($5,400 DK / $6,100 FD) – Too cheap for a clear WR1 against a banged up San Francisco defense.
Devin Duvernay ($4,700 DK / $6,200 FD)
George Pickens ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)
Rondale Moore ($4,200 DK / $5,600 FD) – Not a big Rondale Moore guy by any means, but the ownership will be there and the value is worth a roster spot in cash.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Maar Chase, Mike Evans, Deebo Samuel, JuJu Smith-Schuster

NFL DFS Cash Game Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,300 FD)
Mark Andrews ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD)
Tyler Higbee ($4,600 DK / $6,000 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Defense/Special Teams

Los Angeles Rams
Cincinatti Bengals
Jacksonville Jaguars
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
Carolina Panthers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Josh Allen
Rhamondre Stevenson
Eno Benjamin
Tyler Lockett
Chris Godwin

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 6 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

Let’s go! We’re coming off a really good week of RB projections here at the Running Back Report. We gave out 7 of the top 11 RB’s and we saw 13 RB’s produce over 20 DK points. So it was a good week for RB’s and the Milli-Maker winner rostered 3 which is a strategy we recommended in Week 5.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxqlzaOpVfM

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K). I usually give you a core 4 and this week that is in Tier 1.

My strategy this week is to employ 3 RB’s in most of my lineups. I’ll look to take a Tier 1 RB in some lineups but most of my builds will be from Tier 2 and 3 as the potential points in that range are equal to some of the top end RB’s this week but at a much cheaper price.

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NICK CHUBB $8200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

Chubb has been the best RB in football this season. He has more yards after contact (415) than everyone has from scrimmage except for Saquon Barkley. He leads the league in TD’s, rushing yards, a runs of 10 yards or more. So while you have to pay a premium for Chubb, you are getting a back who is guaranteed 20+ touches and has a very high floor. This week he faces the Patriots who are allowing 128.8 yards per game rushing which is 25th in the league. New England is ranked 28th in rushing defense DVOA. This should be another heavy workload for Chubb and he should be able to have success against the Pats who have allowed two runners to go over 100 yards in just 5 games.

SAQUON BARKLEY $7700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Barkley made the most of his 16 touches last week by scoring a TD and recording 19.6 DK points. It was his lowest usage this year but that didn’t stop him from producing. This week the Giants face the Ravens who are dead last against the pass. Baltimore has allowed 34 receptions to RB’s which is on average of 7 per game. As for the Giants, Barkley has produced 78% of their backfield receptions (18 of 23) and he actually leads his team in receptions. The Ravens are 17th in rushing defense DVOA so there will be yards to have on the ground but I think Barkley’s value is increased this week due to his projecting for 5+ catches.

AARON JONES $7600 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Aaron Jones has 2 less carries than his teammate AJ Dillon. But he has 145 more yards and 5 more receptions which makes him the much more valuable Packers RB. The key to this week is his matchup with the Jets. New York was torched on the ground last week by Raheem Mostert. And they are now 19th in rushing defense DVOA. Green Bay has a better O Line (just ask Tua) and running game than Miami. I expect the Packers to get right this week and commit to the run game which will bring value to both Jones and Dillon.

LEONARD FOURNETTE $7400 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

Fournette has just 53 rushing yards in his past 2 games. But he has a total of 54.3 DK points in those 2 outings good for 27.2 per contest. That’s because he’s a great pass catcher and has 17 receptions to offset the low rushing totals. Bring on the Steelers who have allowed 129.2 yards per game on the ground which is good for 23rd in the NFL. And they’ve allowed the 6th most points this year at 25.6 points per game. I expect the Bucs to put up yards and points in chunks and for Fournette to once again be a factor in the passing and running game.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOE MIXON $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Joe Burrow isn’t the only one feeling the effects of a bad offensive line. That’s because Bengals RB Joe Mixon is averaging just 3.1 yards per carry this season which is a career low. However, he’s still one of the highest used RB’s as he has 116 touches in 5 games which is good for an average of 23 per game. His opponent, New Orleans, has played RB’s well as they are 8th best in points allowed to backs. But they have allowed 130 rushing yards per game which is good for 24th. I love Mixon this week and think he is primed for a breakout game based on the Saints allowing 25.6 points per game and the projected volume of touches for the talented RB.

JEFF WILSON $6200 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

Jeff Wilson turned in his best game of the season last week against the Panthers going for 120 yards on 17 carries. That performance was good for 23.2 DK points which was the 9th highest point total last week. In Week 6 he gets to face the Falcons who have allowed the 23rd most points to RB’s this season. And Atlanta is 27th in rushing defense DVOA. So this is a great matchup for Kyle Shanahan’s run game and Wilson will once again excel and should be focused in your lineups at this price point.

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

Stevenson was in a shared role with Damien Harris but unfortunately Harris suffered a significant hamstring injury last week in the Patriots win against the Lions. Stevenson was the beneficiary as he went for 161 yards which was the highest output on the ground in Week 5. And now that he’s the prime ball carrier, his value skyrockets for fantasy owners. He gets a juicy matchup this week as Cleveland allows the 27th most points to RB’s. And they let up 138.2 yards per game on the ground which is 28th in the league. Stevenson is a great play this week and should be highly owned.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BREECE HALL $5800 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

Every year we have a rookie running back that shines and becomes a fantasy superstar. In the past 2 years we’ve seen it with Jonathan Taylor and Najee Harris. Now it’s Breece Hall’s turn and he’s taking full advantage. The Jets rookie RB has scored over 11 DK points in each game this year and put up 30.7 points last week versus the Dolphins. Even better news for fantasy owners is the increased carries as he had just 21 in the first 3 weeks but 35 in the past 2 games alone. This week Hall will face the Packers who are 30th in rushing defense DVOA. They have allowed big games to Barkley and Harris in the past 2 weeks and Hall should be in line for another solid outing versus a Packers D that is much better versus the pass than the run.

KENNETH WALKER III $5400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

Like Stevenson above, Walker is now the lead back in an offense due to an injury. Rashaad Penny suffered a season ending leg injury last week in the Seahawks loss to the Saints. Walker filled in and immediately paid dividends with a 69 yard TD run. He finished the game with 88 yards on 8 carries and he should only get better from here on out. The Seahawks face the Cardinals this week who have been solid against the run but did show some cracks last week as the Eagles were able to run for 139 yards. The Cardinals and Seahawks game has one of the highest totals on the board so you should consider some shares from this game and mine will be focused on Walker.

RAHEEM MOSTERT $5700 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

If didn’t quite believe me last week when I highlighted Mostert being the primary back, you should now. Prior to week 5, Mostert had a 57% snap share to Edmonds 46%. In week 5, Mostert got 46 snaps to Edmonds’s 10. Even more glaring was that Myles Gaskin received more snaps than Edmonds (13). So here we are, a backfield with a clear lead role and one that got 69% of the snaps. And he gets to play the Vikings this week who are 23rd in rushing defense DVOA and 20th in rushing yards allowed. It’s a front that teams like the Eagles and Packers have had success against. I expect the same for Mostert this week as Miami will be hot and that, along with a power run game, can wear down a defensive front.

BONUS PICKS

I already listed my 10 favorites but I want to give you a bonus to consider. I like ENO BENJAMIN ($4600 DraftKings $7200 FanDuel) as long as James Conner doesn’t play. Conner and Damien Williams did not practice on Thursday so it looks like it’ll be Benjamin and that would be great for DFS owners. The Seahawks are allowing the 30th most points to runners this season. Benjamin put up 14.3 points last week versus the Eagles on just 11 touches. This could be the steal of the week if he becomes the lead back this week in the Arizona backfield.

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.

Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 6 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JxqlzaOpVfM

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

NICK CHUBB $8200 DraftKings $8700 FanDuel

SAQUON BARKLEY $7700 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

AARON JONES $7600 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

LEONARD FOURNETTE $7400 DraftKings $8800 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

JOE MIXON $6900 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

JEFF WILSON $6200 DraftKings $7800 FanDuel

RHAMONDRE STEVENSON $6000 DraftKings $7400 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

BREECE HALL $5800 DraftKings $6500 FanDuel

KENNETH WALKER III $5400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

RAHEEM MOSTERT $5700 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

We will post our RB props on Saturday when the market has finalized some of the player lines.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 6 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

We have another potentially ugly one tonight for Thursday Night Football. Two of the most inconsistent offenses will be on the field as the Bears take on the Commanders. Washington is listed as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of just 38 points. Let’s find some value in what could shape up to be a defensive battle.

Captain/MVP Plays

Darnell Mooney, Bears ($11,400 DraftKings, $9,500 FanDuel)

Yes, I know the Bears have had one of the worst passing games in the entire NFL this season, but hear me out. The Commanders are allowing over 41 fantasy points per game to opposing WR.

Mooney is the clear top target (if you can call it that) for this Bears passing attack. He has totaled 6/146 over his last two games, and will be barely owned at all in the bonus spot. Give him a look in all formats here.

Justin Fields, Bears ($15,000 DraftKings, $16,000 FanDuel)

You may be noticing that I’m higher on the Bears than most here. Rumors are circling that the Bears may be looking to draft his replacement next April.

Even the conversation about replacing Fields is baffling to me. The Bears are simply showing their ineptitude as an organization. Fields has been set up to fail in this offense. Well, I don’t see that happening tonight.

Fields is the perfect style of QB to put in your bonus spot in a game like this. Certainly he has heard the rumors that are swirling, and with only THREE touchdown passes on the season, I’m expecting him to have a solid game here.

Despite his struggles, he still has at least 47 rushing yards in each of the last three games. I’m looking for the passing game to do some work tonight.

Terry McLaurin, Commanders ($13,000 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel) or Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($12,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel)

I think “Scary Terry” will see a decent amount of ownership at the bonus spot, but his production hasn’t exactly warranted it. The “other” Buckeye out wide has been the better fantasy option this season. He has 13 more catches, one more touchdown, but 45 less yards.

I’m on team Samuel in this one. I think he draws a bit less ownership and he has a higher floor. Rostering both isn’t a bad idea, as I’m one of the bettors who is taking the over in this one. Carson Wentz (who is a fade for me) may just be the worst healthy QB in the NFL in my book now that Baker Mayfield is injured. But one thing he does well is pass for garbage time points.

Give me Samuel at a bit of a discount here. Both Logan Thomas and Jahan Dotson are OUT for this one, so the value for these two is much, much higher.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Brian Robinson, Commanders ($6,600 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

If I’m being honest, I don’t know how you don’t lock Robinson into all your lineups on DraftKings. I wouldn’t touch Antonio Gibson in this one with a 39 and a half foot pole, and you shouldn’t either. Robinson was in line to be the lead back for Washington before being shot in a robbery. The team has already announced him as the starter, and it looks like FanDuel was ready.

The Bears are 24th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB, and this may just be Robinson’s coming out party. He is viable in the bonus spot tonight as well.

John Bates, Commanders ($3,000 DraftKings, $5,500 FanDuel)

Bates doesn’t have much of a ceiling in this one, but is dirt cheap on both sites. Logan Thomas is OUT for this one, and Bates had a productive week against the Titans with a 3/39 line. You’ll take that all day at this price.

David Montgomery, Bears ($10,400 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

The Commanders have been middle of the pack against the run in 2022, surrendering just under 23 fantasy points per game. Montgomery has been the workhorse in this backfield, and returned to form last week after his return from injury. He was inefficient on the ground, and isn’t much of a home-run threat, but volume alone makes him a viable option here. Khalil Herbert is always lurking to steal some looks from him, and is actually averaging more fantasy points per game (mostly due to his monster performance after D-Mont went down with injury). Montgomery is a fine play, but not one I’m prioritizing.

Other Options

I don’t care who it is, or where it is, I want a piece of any defense playing against Carson Wentz. He has six interceptions AND six fumbles on the season (although he has only lost one). Don’t act surprised if/when the Bears take one the other way against Captain Turnover. Call me crazy if you want, but if this one truly is an UNDER…the Bears need to be in consideration in the bonus spot.

Dyami Brown looks like he is going to suit up for this one, and is a deep play threat. He may see more ownership than he rightfully should due to his big game last week. That said, the volume will likely be low, but the upside is high at this price. He is a solid filler.

Cairo Santos is in play as a cheap option, but I’m completely off of Joey Slye. He is actually a very good kicker, but I have little faith in the Commanders to not make poor decisions. Washington can’t sustain drives, and is just 2/8 on conversions this season. Slye may pay off, but I’m likely to fade here.

Equanamious St. Brown is a viable option here for cheap. Don’t get your hopes up or overexposed, but I do think Fields has a solid outing, and SOMEONE aside from Mooney needs to make plays. I’m not excited about any of the other options for this passing attack. Cole Kmet SHOULD be a solid option, but Washington has been solid vs TE, and the Bears simply don’t utilize him enough.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

Newer Posts

Older Posts