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NFL DFS

NFL DFS Week 11: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 2 years ago

written by StixPicks

After a smash week Week 10 NFL DFS lineups across the board (thank you, Christian Watson), let’s get back in the groove for Week 11. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to the Week 11 NFL DFS slate where it will be a rather condensed player pool for me.

As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD) – Josh Allen is not 100% healthy, in a potential ugly-weather game and Lamar Jackson is a damn-near double-digit favorite outdoors in potential ugly-weather as well, so Jalen Hurts gets the nod up top for me in terms of high priced “stud” quarterbacks. You know what you’re getting with Hurts as he makes for a fine cash and GPP NFL DFS play.

*UPDATE: Josh Allen and the Bills are now being moved to Detroit, in the dome. Fire away at Josh Allen if you’re into that spot.
Justin Fields ($7,600 DK / $8,700 FD) – His price is still probably too low on DraftKings as he legit has 60+ yard rushing touchdown upside at any time (as we saw again last week, lol). The fade certainly hurt my DFS upside last week, but I’ll probably ride the Fields’ train this week as I doubt his heater ends with the Falcons 28th ranked defense (in terms of DVOA). Fields is all systems go in cash and GPP again in Week 11 as he returns to his home state of Georgia.
Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD) – On FanDuel, I’d probably feel better just using the extra $300 to get to Dak Prescott, but on DraftKings, the savings offered with Marcus Mariota is very intriguing for my overall lineup construction. He’s likely got the highest “get benched” likelihood on the slate, but if you can stomach that risk, Mariota makes for an excellent NFL DFS GPP play and arguably a cash play (pending ownership).

The Bears have absolutely no one on defense (31st overall defense DVOA) and are brutal against both the rush and the pass. In addition, this Bears’ defense has averaged over 38 points per game surrendered to their opponents over the past three weeks… If we like Justin Fields again, we should be expecting a nice up-tempo gamescript for Mariota as he needs to keep the Falcons’ offense in line with the Bears’ recent high-powered offense. Lastly, the Falcons have seemed to have somewhat broken out of their snail’s pace, run-only offense we saw in the middle of the season as we’re starting to see more no-huddle offense. Mariota has averaged the highest number of pass attempts over the past three weeks as he has all season. I’m in, but it’s risky.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Saquon Barkley ($8,900 DK / $9,700 FD) – No need to reinvent the wheel here, Saquon Barkley, at home, against the Lions.
Dalvin Cook ($8,000 DK / $8,300 FD) – Dalvin is in a smash spot here against the Cowboys’ run defense and a great game environment with a total 47.5 points (currently second highest on the slate). I love the recent usage in both the passing and running game and the AETY Model loves the upside here as it grades Dalvin Cook third in terms of touchdown equity at the running back position. Dalvin may very well come into the slate at sub-10% ownership making him a fantastic GPP play.
David Montgomery ($6,100 DK / $6,200 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites and the free-square type of play in my opinion with no Khalil Herbert taking every other drive for the Bears’ offense. If you’re not using Fields in cash, use Montgomery and there’s also GPP leverage here with Montgomery as Justin Fields is the anticipated QB chalk.
Antonio Gibson ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD) & Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD) – Both Commanders’ running backs in play this weekend against the #1 fantasy-friendly run defense in the Houston Texans. In cash games, I prefer Brian Robinson due to slightly more red-zone equity (and I am OK if you go double Commander on DK Cash with Terry/B-Rob), but in GPP builds, I like the versatility and pass-catching upside for Antonio Gibson. If for some reason this game shoots-out, Antonio Gibson is gamescript proof.

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Rhamondre Stevenson, Nick Chubb, James Robinson (GPP only)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($9,100 DK / $9,100 FD) – Injury designation is no more. Fire up Justin Jefferson if you can afford him!
CeeDee Lamb ($7,500 DK / $8,100 FD) – Absolute core play for me in all formats this week, regardless of ownership. The Vikings’ have an extremely high Cover-3 usage rate and that is a massive advantage for CeeDee Lamb on the inside against Chandon Sullivan. Load up the CeeDee!
Gabe Davis ($6,500 DK / $7,100 FD) – With my love for CeeDee Lamb and one of Saquon Barkley or Dalvin Cook, I just cannot afford to pay up for Stefon Diggs (if you can, go for it). I really want to try to get a piece of the Bills’ offense as they have the highest implied team total on the slate and are now playing in a dome. I’ll be pushing on Gabe Davis this week due to the savings offered and the target share upgrade we’ll likely see when the Browns blitz and run their Cover-4 zone defense. Gabe is an excellent boom-or-bust 5% owned GPP play this weekend.
Courtland Sutton ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Assuming Jerry Jeudy is OUT, Courtland Sutton is pretty much the only proven-game in town for the Broncos’ receiving core. With the state of this Denver Broncos’ offense, it’s probably best to keep Sutton in your cash game player pool as the upside just has not been there whatsoever for anyone in the orange uniforms.
Terry McLaurin ($5,900 DK / $7,300 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. McLaurin is clearly the top-target in Washington by a mile when Taylor Heinicke is under center and this is a very winnable matchup against rookie Derrick Stingley Jr. He’s a solid play in cash game and GPP formats, though I prefer strictly cash game exposure with this game environment.
Darnell Mooney ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD) – Fantastic price-points against the Falcons’ slot corner, Isaiah Oliver. The Falcons will run a lot of Cover-1, Cover-3 and Cover-2 defense which is all advantage Darnell Mooney. He will likely be a core play for me in NFL DFS GPP lineups as I’m leaning towards game-stacking CHI @ ATL.
Drake London ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD) – I’m projecting Atlanta to be in a bit of a back-and-forth, up-tempo gamescript here and that will get me to lean on the Atlanta pass catchers. This is a beautiful buy-low spot for Drake London at extremely affordable salaries, in a dream matchup against Jaylon Jones. I’d prefer him in GPP builds only as we know the extreme volatility at hand investing in the Falcons’ passing game.
Parris Campbell ($4,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – Too cheap for a valued target of Matt Ryan’s who has one of the only matchups against this Philadelphia secondary that doesn’t grade as a negative in the AETY Model. Avonte Maddox is now on the IR and that should open up the middle of the field for Campbell against a pure backup cornerback in Josiah Scott. He’s fine as a value play in both cash and GPP lineups.

Honorable Mention: AJ Brown, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Tee Higgins, Garrett Wilson, Van Jefferson, Ben Skowronek, Nico Collins (cash viable on DK with the high ownership)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

TJ Hockenson ($5,300 DK / $6,500 FD) – Hockenson has quietly been utilized like a borderline fantasy WR2 since he’s been traded to Vikings… 19 targets in two games! We’re getting close to Travis Kelce type of usage (obviously he isn’t Travis Kelce, but neither is his price). Hockenson will likely be around 5% in ownership and in this up-tempo Dallas @ Minnesota game, will make for an excellent GPP play. We’ll see a lot of him when Dallas shows their Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses.
Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – It’s gross, but again, I’m in on this Falcons’ passing attack this week and Kyle Pitts is my top stacking option for Mariota. As mentioned in Discord, Kyle Pitts has been slowly working his way back to lining up in the slot (where he is at his best) and away from in-line snaps. Either Arthur Smith is starting to understand how serious of a weapon Kyle Pitts is or it’s a fluke. I lean on the side that the slot snap-share rising is a strategic move.

Although Pitts won’t exclusively see Kyler Gordon in coverage (the others in coverage for the Bears aren’t much better), this is a matchup we need to pick-on. Gordon has allowed massive production to all those who line up against him as he’s given up the most receiving yards in the NFL to receivers targeted in the slot, by a wide margin. Pitts should absolutely smash the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defenses (as long as this game stays up-tempo). He’s a fine play for GPP’s and arguably viable in cash.
Dalton Schultz ($4,300 DK / $5,900 FD) – Not quite as sexy as Hockenson’s recent usage, but 15 targets over his past two games is excellent on a slate when there is no Travis Kelce. The red-zone utilization is also taking a massive leap upward now that Dak Prescott is back. This is a game I love to attack and Schultz is more of a WR2 than he is a mid-tier priced tight-end.
Greg Dulcich ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – I personally have zero interest in Dulcich outside of cash games. On FanDuel, I’d advise going elsewhere, on DraftKings, it looks like he’ll be the highest owned tight-end by a mile so it’s safe to go there if you need savings.

Honorable Mention: Mark Andrews, Tyler Higbee, Cole Kmet

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos
Washington Commanders
New Orleans Saints
New York Jets
Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

CeeDee Lamb
David Montgomery
Saquon Barkley
Greg Dulcich
Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

I’ll be out of town this weekend for a wedding so I want to share my NFL DFS GPP “core” that I usually give out on the Sunday livestream if anyone is interested. Good luck this week!

Marcus Mariota (risky as hell, so I understand if you don’t want to go there)
Dalvin Cook
CeeDee Lamb
Darnell Mooney
Kyle Pitts

Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

2 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 11 TNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 2 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Thursday Night Football in Week 11 brings us a battle between two team with playoff aspirations. The Titans (somehow) come into this one at 6-3, despite not scoring more than 24 points in a single game. The Packers are riding high off their comeback win against Dallas, but sit at 4-6 and outside the playoff picture. The Packers’ 31 points against the Cowboys was a higher number than their TOTAL from their previous two games (26). There is plenty to see here in this one. Let’s get started.

DraftKings and FanDuel each have a slightly different setup for Showdown slates, with DraftKings using a “Captain” spot. Captain earns you 1.5X points, BUT also costs you 1.5X in salary. FanDuel uses an “MVP”, which is ALSO 1.5X points, but salaries are the same, regardless of position. DraftKings uses 5 FLEX spots, and FanDuel uses 4 “AnyFLEX” spots to fill out your roster.

Captain/MVP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($15,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

I don’t have the numbers in front of me. I’d be willing to wager that Rodgers hasn’t often been anything but the highest-salaried player on a showdown slate more often than not. Am I back in on Rodgers? Hell no. I was even tweeting about him needing to hang up the ol’ proverbial cleats during Sunday’s game.

That matters little here. The Titans are the fakest “good” team in the NFL. Year in and year out. Phenomenal coaching (and Derrick Henry) have carried this franchise for the last few years. They rank 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing QB, and were just picked apart by Patrick Mahomes two games ago.

Rodgers isn’t in Mahomes’ class anymore, but in this spot, he needs to be on your radar. He looked like vintage Rodgers at times late in the Cowboys game. He is still going to make some head-scratching decisions (it’s the vaccines and ayahuasca), but his upside here is big. Like as big as his ego (well, almost).

Stats, shmats. I believe in Rodgers more here than I have all season. I’m destined for disappointment.

Derrick Henry, Titans ($17,400 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

“King” Henry takes the field in a great spot. By the way, why is he called “king”? King of the AFC South? Let’s not get carried away bragging about being “king” of the NFL equivalent of the MAC. Enough about nicknames.

Only the Houston Texans (who are on a historically bad pace) have allowed more rushing yards than the Packers’ 1248 this season. Henry had one of his worst games of the season last week against the Broncos, totaling just 53 rushing yards on 19 carries. One major difference between TNF and that game. The Broncos actually PLAY defense (but not offense…ZING!).

The Titans have scored either 17 or 19 points in each of their last four games. Their offensive upside is equivalent to a turtle’s vertical leap. However, the Titans go as Henry goes. The rest of the offense is sporadic, and quite honestly, just sucks.

Henry has seen less than 20 touches in a grand total of two games this season. We know one thing for certain. Volume is king. It remains to be seen if Henry is truly the “king” of anything. Stay tuned.

Christian Watson, Packers ($11,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

You hungry? Can I interest you in some nice chalk? Watson was the consensus top waiver priority in season-long leagues this week, and will be popular in this showdown. While it makes sense to play angles, look for low-owned plays, etc…I’m not convinced you can fade Watson here.

The entire sports world knows that he is coming off of a 4-107-3 line (eight targets) against Dallas. If you think a touchdown on 75% of your catches is sustainable, I have a nice condo to sell you on Atlantis. Right next door to Tupac and Elvis Presley (they are still alive!). However, what may actually BE sustainable is a good rapport with one of the best to ever do it (Rodgers).

The Titans pass-funnel defense will lead to plenty of good looks for the Packers wideouts. With Romeo Doubs OUT, there is even more to go Watson’s way. Did I mention the fake-good Titans are 29th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR? It’s quite elementary, my dear Watson (fan). Get this man into your showdown lineups.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Robert Tonyan, Packers ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

One last dig at the Titans, ok? They are also an embarrassment against the TE position. They rank 28th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to the position. Who is worse, you ask? Who cares? This is a showdown slate. Tonyan has a low floor (he had ONE target last week), but this is a matchup-dependent play.

Tonyan should be back to his normal complement of 4+ targets in a plus matchup here. I’m not big on the running game here. Gimme all the passing targets for old man Rodgers.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans ($6,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

At least Ryan Tannehill is back! That’s a phrase I never thought I’d utter in my lifetime. You all saw (and read) about what happened with Malik Willis under center. Tannehill is not a very good QB, but he can post garbage, empty stats with the best of them.

Robert Woods has to be hating himself for his move to Tennessee. 24/7 country music AND an offense that pretends like WR don’t exist? He may as well have stayed in Los Angeles. At least he could enjoy some scenery while being ignored by an aging QB.

Enough about Woods. Westbrook-Ikhine is coming off a performance that more than doubled his production on the year (5-119-2). One was a trick play with a blown coverage, but nevertheless. Someone has to make plays in this passing game, and I’m much more a believer in NWI than anyone else. I’m not excited about it. But if I’m choosing here, it’s NWI over Woods.

Packers D/ST ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

You know what time it is. DEFENSE THURSDAY! I mentioned that the Packers are relegation-level against the run. It’s a different story against the pass. The Packers are allowing only 13 DraftKings points per game to opposing QB. Sounds good, right? Well, it’s SO good that Ryan Tannehill is also AVERAGING 13 DraftKings points per game.

Tannehill is incapable of carrying a team with his arm. The Packers will look to force him to put the ball in the air. I’m guessing it won’t end well. Sign me up for a Packers defensive score in this one.

Other Options

If you have to roster a Packers RB (I think it will be a good idea late when the Pack are up big), the answer is Aaron Jones. AJ Dillon has just one touchdown on the season, and we all know his lack of pass-catching upside.

The ULTIMATE leverage play here is Allen Lazard. Bonus spot, whatever you want. Prior to Watson’s breakout (keep in mind he still only had four catches), Lazard was the guy. He was coming off of six straight games with at least 11.7 DraftKings points. A trio of Rodgers/Watson/Lazard looks mighty tasty here.

I was one of the people who bought in on Treylon Burks in season-long, and I’d do it again. He has all the tools to be successful. Well, aside from a competent QB. But other than that, Burks is a solid flier in this one.

If the Titans are able to control the clock…or IF (god forbid) Derrick Henry gets injured, Dontrell Hillyard is your guy. He has a floor of about 1.2 fantasy points, but the Titans know what they have to do here. I think he’s a reasonable GPP option if you’re doing MME.

Deep GPP flier of the day belongs to Samori Toure. His role has diminished, but with Cobb and Doubs still out, he will likely see a few snaps. He had 3-71-1 on eight targets over a two week span before last week.

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Good luck on Thursday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DraftKings/FanDuel DFS Quarterback Plays Week 11

Capper Steve 2 years ago

written by Capper Steve

What a past weekend of football, it felt like deja vu when Justin Fields laid another 40 DK points in our lines! Can he give us a hat trick? Week 11 is among us, and you already know Fields will be back in our quarterbacks’ write-up. Enough of the intro, let’s keep the momentum moving further past the pay line and scope out this week’s QBs. As always, study our model and stay sharp before lock. I’m frequently on our Discord too, @JDiCarlo78, tag me anytime for questions on DFS or season-long. Let’s crush it again, quarterbacks breakdown Week 11 here we go!

Check out our NFL Week 11 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)

What elbow injury? The best of the best looked pretty healthy to me, even after his three turnovers he managed to pull out 25 DK points. Allen is a must-start if you can afford him against a Cleveland defense that oozes fantasy value to opposing quarterbacks. They have allowed 5 touchdown passes and over a 72 completion percentage in their last two games. But watch the weather guys, Buffalo may accumulate over two feet of snow beginning Saturday night. Josh may be too risky to pay up for in a winter wonderland, so keep the weather app open this weekend.

Lamar Jackson ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)

Fresh from a weekend off, Lamar hopefully got some much-needed rest and his legs are ramped up for this meeting with Carolina. The Panthers’ 27th rushing DVOA should give Jackson an incentive to break out of the pocket even more on Sunday. Although his numbers have dropped off in the middle of the season, we still can’t overlook the tremendous potential upside from Lamar, especially with his number one target Mark Andrews trending to suit up this weekend.

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

Hurts and the Eagles suffered their first loss of the year on Monday night, which may lead to some frustration to be let out in Indianapolis. His matchup is not the most enticing, but his ability to find the endzone with his arm (14 TDS) and legs (7 TDS) should tell you he is always sitting pretty in your builds. He may not have much ownership because of the Eagles’ last horrendous game and tough road opponent, but maybe consider him in a tournament this week.

Justin Fields ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)

Fields continues to break the slate, scoring 43 DK points after the 45 he poured in two weeks ago. Entirely because of his scrambling ability and negative game scripts, Justin should keep on piling up the points this weekend in Atlanta. Thank the Bears’ front office for trading away their two most effective players on defense (Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn) setting Fields up to play catch-up for the rest of the season. The Falcons rank dead last in passing DVOA putting Fields in a position to rack up extra air yardage on top of his high rushing floor on Sunday.

Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)

He’s way too cheap to be under $7k on DraftKings in a divisional matchup on the road in Pittsburgh. TJ Watt is back and out for blood, but having Joe Mixon’s rushing ability in his back pocket, the Steelers will need to respect the rush allowing Burrow to work in play action. If Joe can avoid the sacks, he’ll flourish against this 26th DVOA passing defense and avenge himself from the home opening loss in September.

Dak Prescott ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

Dak and the Cowboys played a great game in GreenBay but came up short on the road and were handed their third loss. Yet again, another QB that’s way too cheap and facing another potential shootout in Minnesota, sign me up. Indoors facing the 27th-ranked passing defense Prescott will once again pay off his price tag.

Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)

No, we are not pulling your leg, Mariota is a great value at quarterback for Week 11. Chicago’s cover 2 and cover 3 defense minus Roquan Smith and Robert Quinn will be ripe for the picking. We’ve seen him reach 24 DK points in two of his last five games in favorable matchups, but keep him away from cash games. His low salary will allow you to stack some of the elite this weekend at receiver and running back, but there’s always a possibility that he could get benched too.

Thanks for reading our NFL Week DFS Quarterbacks article for Week 11. There will be tons of content covering each position all week, cash games and tournaments, and plenty of articles, videos, and podcasts so check in with us whichever way you like to consume your content. Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be up on our Video Hub and make sure you lock into our Sunday morning live stream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news. Tag me @Jdicarlo78 on our Discord chat or on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78. Fellas let’s keep the green screens coming!

2 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 10 MNF Showdown DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Vegas isn’t expecting this Monday Night Football contest to be close (Philly is favored by 11), but I’m excited about this one. I can see a path to a competitive game here, and while that isn’t the likeliest of scenarios, it can happen. Taylor Heinecke is under center for this one, not perennial loser Carson Wentz. Washington’s offense is MUCH less offensive (get it?) with Taylor at the helm. Let’s smash this one!

Make sure to join our Discord to jump into our conversations with the team and share your successes (I am “Myrtle Beach Mermen”, if you understand the reference, we will get along right away! We have a TON of great tools for you to check out, make sure you’re taking advantage! You can find projections here and try out the optimizer here.

Captain/MVP Plays

Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($18,300 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

The top player in this game is also the top option in the bonus spot. No analysis is necessary, but I’ll send some your way anyway. Hurts has been the model of consistency this season, posting 21+ DraftKings points in six of eight games. His low this season? 16.9 against Dallas. Not too shabby.

This matchup will be a good deal easier for him than that one was. He already served up a beatdown on this defense in Week 3, completing 22/35 passes for 340 yards and a trio of scores. The 30.9 DraftKings points he posted in that contest was his second-highest on the season thus far.

Washington has allowed 16 touchdown passes already in 2022. Hurts has an elite floor and ceiling, and the Eagles are favored by 11 here. What more can you ask for?

Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Yes, Terry McLaurin is more of a deep threat. Yes, his upside is higher. Samuel’s salary is far too cheap for this matchup. The Eagles have been stout defensively this season, but are middle of the pack (18th) against the pass. Samuel has the luxury of being involved in the running game as well, which raises his floor and ceiling together.

He has 10 rushes and 16 targets over the last three games, and Washington will need to get creative to keep this one close. I’m expecting Samuel to be the recipient of some of those creative plays. Jahan Dotson is returning here (more on him later), but I’m still a fan of the former Buckeye as a leverage play in the bonus spot.

AJ Brown, Eagles ($15,900 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

Brown is one of only a handful of WR who have an argument to be the among the best in the game. He is a matchup nightmare, and already posted a 5/85/1 line on 10 targets in the first matchup. Brown has found the end zone five times in the last three weeks, totaling 282 yards and 24 targets.

He is the clear top option for the Eagles, and DeVonta Smith has been very inconsistent. I prefer Hurts here, and will make him my priority, but Brown needs to be considered also. Smith had his best game of the season against Washington in Week 3. I expect ownership to reflect that monster 8/169/1 game more than it rightfully should.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Joey Slye, Commanders ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

There are few slates where I want to make a kicker a priority, but this is one of them. There is almost no wind in the forecast, and the Commanders struggle to finish drives. Slye should be a mainstay in your lineups even if you expect the Washington offense to truly keep pace with the Eagles tonight.

Jahan Dotson, Commanders ($5,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

Dotson is finally back, and I’m stoked to play him here. I expect him to be featured in the offense, and Heinecke to be throwing a lot. The Eagles are huge favorites and are tougher against the run. Dotson was fantastic in his four games thus far, posting 13+ DraftKings points in three of four. That game just so happened to come against these same Eagles, but once again, that game came with Carson Wentz ruining everything.

DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($8,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

I mentioned above about ownership funneling toward Smith as a result of his monster game Week 3 in the first meeting. That doesn’t mean I don’t want a part of Smith here. When Smith and Hurts get into a groove, watch out. He has had two games with 11+ targets this season. If this game ends up a shootout (there is a real chance, you heard it here first), a Hurts/Brown/Smith stack could pay huge dividends.

Other Options

I’m never going to talk you out of playing Terry McLaurin, and he has a high ceiling as well. If the Eagles score at will, all the passing options for Washington could go off.

I’m not opposed to Jake Elliott here, but I lean more toward Slye. Elliott has made more than one field goal exactly ONE time this season. I’ll pass.

Miles Sanders will likely see volume as he does, but I’m generally not a fan of his upside with Hurts being so aggressive near the goal line.

Listen, Taylor Heinecke is a pretty decent QB. I think he has a solid game here, and needs to be in some of your lineups.

If you’re looking for a home run play, mine here is Dyami Brown. He will likely play very few snaps, but he could see a deep shot or two in the right spot.

Antonio Gibson isn’t a bad play here, but he isn’t a player I’m excited about. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling, and I hate the matchup. I’ll stick with the pass-catchers.

Good luck on Monday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL Week 10 Showdown SNF DFS Picks DraftKings and FanDuel

Jared Contestabile 3 years ago

written by Jared Contestabile

Two teams with similar records face off on Sunday Night Football this week. The Chargers come into this one with a 5-3 record, while the 49ers come in at 4-4. The Chargers are listed as 7.5-point underdogs this week, as injuries have continued to hit them hard. There is plenty of value and upside to be had in this one, so let’s find a way to cash in on the showdown slate!

Captain/MVP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,400 DraftKings, $17,00 FanDuel)

The Chargers continue to be a sieve against the run, ranking 31st in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing RB. Christian McCaffrey is arguably the best on the planet, and coming off one of the best performances of his career. He totaled three touchdowns, including one each through the air, on the ground, and a passing score.

Elijah Mitchell has been activated from the IL (more on him later), but that doesn’t hold McCaffrey back much. He will remain the bellcow for this offense, and has an absolutely monstrous ceiling, especially in a prime matchup like this one.

Joshua Palmer, Chargers ($11,700 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

With both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams OUT for this one, Palmer will once again be the lead dog out wide for Justin Herbert. He has seen 22 targets over the last two weeks, and parlayed those opportunities into 163 yards. Austin Ekeler has stolen most of the touchdowns, but this may be a week where the passing attack finds more success.

The 49ers are the best in the NFL against the run, but rank just 19th in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR. I always talk about volume being king, and Palmer will once again see elite volume this week. With a large point spread for this one, the Chargers will likely be throwing until the final whistle. Palmer is fairly priced for a top option, and needs to be a priority in your builds.

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($16,800 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

Speaking of volume, Ekeler is second-to-none among RB with his pass-catching opportunities. He has seen THIRTY-SIX targets over the last three weeks, and should be busy again in this one. While the 49ers are elite against the run, Ekeler hasn’t been a particularly efficient runner this season anyway. He is averaging just 53 rushing yards per game. His value is in the passing game, and the Chargers offense goes as he goes.

He has scored 10 touchdowns in his last five games, and the Chargers will need every bit of production they can get out of him in this one.

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($8,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Deebo was the elite playmaker in this 49er offense for a long time, but now that distinction may just belong to CMC. That said, a ton of attention has moved away from Deebo and to McCaffrey now, which is a benefit in a few ways.

He still has 20 opportunities over the last two weeks since the acquisition of CMC, so his role in this offense is still concrete. The Chargers are 13th in the NFL in fantasy points allowed to opposing WR. We all know Deebo can contribute across the board. Let’s hope we can get him at lower ownership here.

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($10,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

All the information I included above has led me to Herbert, and should lead you there as well. The Chargers are still down their top two pass catchers, but Herbert WILL be slinging it. He has attempted 57, 51, and 43 passes the last two weeks.

The matchup is far from ideal, but the Chargers are right on the bubble in the AFC Playoff picture as well. They need every win they can get, and can’t afford to get complacent. Only Tampa Bay throws the ball at a higher rate than the Chargers. Herbert may need to ice his arm after this one.

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Should I talk about the Chargers’ volume of passing again? Nah. But I will talk about how Everett has averaged eight targets per game over his last three contests. He hasn’t found the end zone since Week 4, but not for lack of opportunity. On a full slate, I wouldn’t be particularly high on him here. But on a showdown slate, we need exposure to a guy who could see near double-digit targets.

Other Options

I teased it above, but you absolutely need to consider Elijah Mitchell at just $200 on DraftKings. He looks to be ready to slot in right behind Christian McCaffrey, and I already talked about what a great matchup this is. He is a lock for me on DK.

One of the most fun nicknames in the NFL is “Dicker the Kicker”. Cameron Dicker has made all eight of his kicks this season (4 FG, 4 PAT). The Chargers have struggled to finish drives, especially without two of their top weapons. That could lead to more opportunities for Dicker.

DeAndre Carter is another cheap option that has seen some work in this Charger offense. He is averaging six targets per game over his last three…and he is dirt cheap.

Another cheap option here is Isaiah Spiller. The 49ers are a bad matchup for running backs, but he should spell Ekeler at times. He out-snapped Sony Michel last week. His floor is zero, but should be very low owned.

Everyone’s favorite touchdown vulture has become a factor in the 49ers passing game. Kyle Juszczyk has had nine catches for 94 yards over the last three games. He’s another cheap filler for you.

Good luck on Sunday Night! Make sure to follow me on Twitter @BigItaly42 if you aren’t already, and let’s meet at the top of the leaderboards!

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

We had a day in Week 9 of the Main Slate for the NFL. All lineups that hit big had 3 RB’s rostered. And the 3 best RB’s were all in our Tier 2 recommendations; Joe Mixon, Travis Etienne and Kenneth Walker. The shift from a passing league is real as we see more production out of RB’s week in and week out. Will Week 10 be any different? I’d say no, and once again recommend a RB in your Flex Spot. And the DFS community agrees as we have the most RB’s priced over $7K this week.

Please be sure to check out Stix’s projections each week when evaluating NFL DFS using the NFL Projection Model. It’s the best predictive tool on the market and will give you a competitive advantage against the competition! Also don’t forget to check out our NFL DraftCast we did earlier this week here at WinDaily, which breaks down our favorite plays on the entire slate.

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8600 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

Houston we have a problem And it’s that pathetic rushing defense that the Texans roll out each and every week. This week, the problem gets worse as Houston faces the NFL’s 3rd leading rusher in Saquon Barkley. The Giants RB is averaging 98 yards per game rushing and adds 23 receiving yards as well. The Texans allow the most points to fantasy RB’s and the most rushing yards per game. Don’t get too complicated here, Barkley is the top choice in Tier 1, and maybe on the board, based on his matchup today.

DERRICK HENRY $8300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

It looks like Ryan Tannehill will be back under center for the Titans which is good news for both Tennessee and Derrick Henry. In the second half of last week’s game against KC, Henry amassed only 23 yards with no rush going for more than 7 yards. In fact, the Titans managed only 1 first down the entire second half. It showed that the Chiefs stacked the box and took away Henry to make Tennessee QB Malik Willis try to beat them. And that strategy worked and is likely what teams would do going forward. But with Tannehill back that should free up the box and open up the run game. Which should benefit them today as Denver has the 25th worst run defense according to DVOA. The last time they played, Travis Etienne ran for 156 yards against the Broncos. And now they’re without their star DE Bradley Chubb. Henry should be back in beast mode and put up big numbers once again today.

NICK CHUBB $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

The NFL’s 2nd leading rusher is fresh off a bye week and has a premium matchup today as the Browns face the Dolphins in Miami. The Fins rank 7th in rushing defense DVOA but are coming off a game in which they allowed 252 yards rushing to the Bears. Yes, most of that was done by QB Justin Fields but it still showed vulnerability in their front 7. Most teams just pass on the Dolphins but teams that have committed to the run have found success (Dalvin Cook 5.9 ypc, Breece Hall 5.4 ypc, etc). Chubb is just one of those backs that we can trust in any matchup and I especially like him today based on the probability of a low ownership number and him coming off a bye.

JONATHAN TAYLOR $7500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

Yes, the injury risk is here. As Taylor keeps battling an ankle injury there is concern he could aggravate it during the game. But if he can overcome that, I think this is the best spot for a RB on the board this week. First, it’s the Raiders who are a complete mess coming off another game in which they blew a 17 point lead. Secondly, the Colts have a new HC and play caller this week and that benefits Taylor the most. Keep it simple and feed one of the best RB’s in the league. Especially when you have a practice squad player at the QB position. Another one that’s simple here, for GPP’s take the risk in Taylor. For cash, play a safer option. NOTE: Great price on FanDuel and one of the top plays on that market.

ALVIN KAMARA $7400 DraftKings $8600 FanDuel

The Saints RB has been all or nothing so far this year. But his all was good enough to lead a Milli-Maker lineup back in Week 8 against Las Vegas. And that potential combined with his opponent this week make him a viable play. The Pittsburgh Steelers are 11th in rushing DVOA but allow the 15th most points to fantasy RB’s. And what makes this a good matchup for Kamara is that the game should be a slower paced outing that is close. The Saints got away from their gameplan last week as Baltimore got out to an early lead. But Pittsburgh does not have the explosive type of offense that will make the Saints get away from their script. That benefits Kamara and I think he will see 20+ touches today. And in games he’s received at least 18 touches, he’s averaged 26.5 DK points.

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

Since taking over the lead RB role for the Jags, Travis Etienne has averaged 127 yards rushing per game as well as 27 DK points. He is receiving 80% of the snaps which is the highest in the league in that 3 week span. Today he faces the Chiefs who allow the 30th most points to RB’s. Etienne is in a great spot to once again go over 100 yards rushing and 25 DK points.

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

The well is dry in the Tier 2 pool as DFS markets have adjusted RB salaries to make it harder for us to optimize our lineups. But there is still value here and that starts with Pollard in Dallas. Much of this play depends on Ezekial Elliott’s status. If Zeke doesn’t play, Pollard becomes my #1 owned RB this week. That’s because Green Bay is terrible against the run. They allow 138 yards per game on the ground which is good for 26th in the league. And they are the 31st rush defense according to DVOA. Every lead RB they’ve faced has gone over 67 yards in the game except for Leonard Fournette. And we all know how bad Fournette is running so that shouldn’t even count. Smash Pollard against this porous defense today. If Zeke plays he’s still a solid play but loses that top end GPP potential.

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

Swift does not carry an injury designation into today which makes this a very intriguing spot to roll him back into your lineups. The Bears are 28th in rushing defense DVOA and are 30th in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game. While Jamaal Williams will get more touches, Swift will likely get more snaps and an ability to shine in the passing game. I’m comfortable playing Swift in both cash and GPP.

Pierce is one of my favorite RB’s on the slate today as he faces a Giants D that is 24th in rush defense DVOA. Image courtesy of nbcsports.com

DAMEON PIERCE $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

This is a great spot for Pierce as the Giants have one of the weaker rushing defenses in the league. While they allow the 10th least fantasy points to RB’s, they are 24th in rushing defense DVOA and allow the 25th most rushing yards per game. And the one thing we know about Pierce is that he will get the ball as the alternatives behind him are weak (Burkhead, Ogunbow). Just last week he received 78% of the snaps which was 4td in the league only trailing Etienne, Cook and Kamara. This is an absolute mis-price for Pierce and I think he’s inline for another big game. I like him in both GPP and cash but will play him more in cash games.

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6200

This is strictly a GPP shot in the dark. Last week, Pacheco started the game for the Chiefs and managed just 5 carries for 5 yards. The game script got away from the Chiefs early as they trailed the Titans for most of the game. That allowed the snap count to tip heavily to Jerrick McKinnon and make fantasy owners wonder who is the lead back for KC. I still think they have a plan to employ more Pacheco and I believe that will show up this week versus a Jags D that allows the 23rd most points to RB’s. For this to payoff we’ll need a rushing TD and the Jags have allowed 9 of those to RB’s so far this season.

BONUS PICKS

My bonus pick this week is DAVID MONTGOMERY ($6000 DK). We can’t go a week without talking about the Lions and their 31st ranked run defense. Montgomery also out-snapped Herbert by a margin of 70% to 22%. It’s clearly his backfield when they are not running with Fields. But I could see a game today where both go over 100 yards versus Detroit. They’re that bad against the run.

RB PROP BETS

DAMEON PIERCE over 81.5 yards rushing (-125)

DAVID MONTGOMERY Anytime TD (-105)

Now that you finished reading the NFL RUNNING BACK REPORT article make sure to check out our YouTube Channel for constant content for every game and slate in the NFL this season and hop in our Discord Expert Chat.

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS RUNNING BACK REPORT – WEEK 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

Dave Gloeckner 3 years ago

written by Dave Gloeckner

As with the past weeks I highlight my favorite 10 RB’s below and break them up into Tiers (Tier 1 = $7K above, Tier 2 = $6K to $7K, Tier 3 = below $6K).

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8600 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

DERRICK HENRY $8300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

NICK CHUBB $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

JONATHAN TAYLOR $7500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

ALVIN KAMARA $7400 DraftKings $8600 FanDuel

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

DAMEON PIERCE $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6200

BONUS PICKS

RB PROP BETS

DAMEON PIERCE over 81.5 yards rushing (-125)

DAVID MONTGOMERY Anytime TD (-105)

Also, be sure to follow me on Twitter (@dgloeck) and my other content that is part of the WinDailySports family.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 10: Stix Picks (Cash and GPP)

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

First off, Happy Veteran’s Day to all who served and their families. Please know that myself and everyone at Win Daily are incredibly grateful for your service, as you all have paved the way that we live today. To be able to sit here and write NFL DFS articles on a weekly basis, it’s incredible and we wouldn’t be here without you. Thank you for allowing us to live the safe lives we live today! You are all the true heroes!

A bit of a mixed bag for Week 9 NFL DFS lineups across the board. Unfortunately, I was a full-fade on Joe Mixon and that’s just the way it goes sometimes. I hope everyone enjoyed the slate breakdown cheat-sheet I provided in Discord. Hopefully that helps your weekly process! Let’s move on to a sexy Week 10 NFL DFS slate. As always, we can focus more on lineup construction in Discord. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up) in addition to my favorite NFL DFS GPP tournament plays. Good luck this week!

*Please note that just because a player is listed as a cash game option, DOES NOT mean they’re not in play for NFL DFS GPP lineups. I love to get a mixture of both in my GPP builds.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD) – It is Patrick Mahomes, in a fantastic matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars. He’s the only quarterback on the slate with a passing prop close to 300-yards and if Josh Allen is limited our OUT, he’s the only QB (other than maybe Tua Tagovailoa) who we expect to throw for 2+ touchdowns on a weekly basis. Don’t overthink this slate. Mahomes is perfect for both cash and GPP lineups in Week 10.

Stack Options: Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling
Run-Back Options: Travis Etienne, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,700 DK / $8,100 FD) – Tua and the Miami Dolphins are on absolute fire right now and the matchup at home against the Cleveland Browns projects to be a shootout with the total currently sitting at 49.5 points (second highest on the slate behind JAX @ KC). The Browns secondary is back to full health, but it’s almost impossible to keep Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in-check. Tua is fine for cash game builds, but with the potential that the Browns run the ball as much as possible to keep the ball out of Miami’s hands, the safest route is through NFL DFS GPP lineups.

Stack Options: Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle
Run-Back Options: Amari Cooper, Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Justin Fields ($6,300 DK / $8,300 FD) – DraftKings refuses to raise his price to an appropriate tier based on his current fantasy outputs and the clear high-floor with his legs. Fields is on a heater right now and is an excellent cash game play against this horrific Detroit Lions’ defense. Having said that, I do think a case can be made to fade Justin Fields.

I look at it this way: his ownership has never been higher, his price has never been higher, he takes more hits than any other quarterback on the slate, and he’s done his damage in up-tempo games where the Bears are playing from behind! Those games were against Dak Prescott and a healthy Dallas Cowboys team (outside of Elliott, but we know how lethal Pollard is/was) and last week against Tua and the Dolphins, where they were scoring at-will. Do you really think Jared Goff and the Lions on the road push Fields into a ceiling NFL DFS game? Maybe you do, or maybe you don’t care because he’s cheap and a play away from going 60-yards to the house. That is 100% fine, run him out there!

I personally, will likely be fading Fields for the above reasons and the fact that I simply trust my builds with Tua or Mahomes more at their ownership. I always fade Goff on the road and will pray that the gamescript goes more in favor of both teams heavily utilizing their running backs as both of these run defenses (and pass defense too, don’t get me wrong) absolutely suck.

Stack Options: Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, Cole Kmet
Run-Back Options: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Honorable Mention (GPP only): Russell Wilson, Kenny Pickett

NFL DFS Running Backs (Cash and GPP)

Saquon Barkley ($8,600 DK / $9,500 FD) – Saquon against the Texans… it’s a smash spot but you’re paying the premium price-tag. He’s a fantastic play in all formats. Like Mahomes, no need to overthink things. I’ll do everything I can to get Barkley into my cash game lineup.
Derrick Henry ($8,300 DK / $9,400 FD) – It looks like there will be heavy ownership on Derrick Henry this week against the Broncos’ defense (they’re extremely solid, but they’re a run-funnel and it’s Derrick Henry). I probably will not get there in cash games, but he’s a great play in all formats as you all know.
Travis Etienne ($7,100 DK / $8,000 FD) – The price is rising for Etienne on a weekly basis and for good reason, he’s on fire. The usage rate is atop the AETY Model projections for the Week 10 NFL DFS slate and he’s likely to find himself in a bit more of a passing-game role as the Jaguars are almost a 10-point dog to Kansas City. The Chiefs allow the most receptions per game to opposing running backs. Etienne is perfect for both GPP and cash game lineups.
Tony Pollard ($6,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Lock button if Ezekiel Elliott is OUT for cash and definitely a significant interest in GPP.
Dameon Pierce ($6,300 DK / $7,700 FD) – Way too affordable on DraftKings and the ownership projections seem to say the public agrees. Pierce is the “free-square” running back this week in NFL DFS cash games and is still a value piece (at high-ownership) in GPP lineups against the Giants’ 24th ranked run defense (DVOA). He’s a full-go in all formats this weekend.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Josh Jacobs, James Conner, Jamaal Williams

GPP Only:

Jonathan Taylor ($7,500 DK / $7,000 FD) – Likely only a play for me on FanDuel, but Deon Jackson is OUT, Phil Lindsay was cut, and Zack Moss likely won’t have a significant role in any aspect of the game. The concern here is: what the hell do the Colts do on offense? I’ll roll the dice that new coach Jeff Saturday leans on Jonathan Taylor for 25+ touches on Sunday against a very beatable Raiders’ defense.
David Montgomery ($6,000 DK / $6,700 FD) – Pure leverage off of the Bears’ passing game chalk. Detroit’s run defense is terrible.
Kareem Hunt ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD) – I don’t believe I’ve wrote his name down in any format throughout the 2022 season, but here we are. There’s no cheap-value at the running back position this week so Kareem Hunt will be getting the nod for me in some NFL DFS GPP lineups. At sub-3% ownership, Hunt grabs my attention as he’s got the highest AETY Model projection he’s had for me all season long. With no Njoku, the model seems to think Kareem Hunt will get an uptick in receiving work (in addition to his limited, yet notable rushing role) against the Dolphins’ defense that grades 28th in pass defense DVOA to opposing running backs. This game is likely going to be a fantasy football festival on both sides and Hunt offers me some extremely cheap exposure to it.

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

Tyreek Hill ($9,100 DK / $9,000 FD)
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,900 DK / $6,900 FD) – St. Brown is one of the only healthy wide receivers for the Detroit Lions and the expected target-share is over 30% this week against the Bears’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 defense. Kyler Gordon is going to have his hands full trying to handle Amon-Ra St. Brown for four quarters on Sunday. St. Brown is a fantastic option in all formats.
Amari Cooper ($6,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Amari Cooper is surprisingly one of the AETY Model favorites this week against a brutal Miami secondary (Xavien Howard has been trash this season and may miss this game anyways). Amari’s red-zone usage is elite and his expected target share got a significant boost in the AETY Model with Njoku being ruled out and Miami running a ton of man coverage with some Cover-3 mixed in there as well (coverages Brissett heavily targets Cooper in). He’s simply too cheap for a high-upside WR1 in an excellent game environment. Feel confident in rolling out Cooper in all formats.

Donovan Peoples-Jones is a fine value as well for cash or GPP.
JuJu Smith-Schuster ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD) – Mahomes’ top wide receiver outside of the obvious, Travis Kelce. JuJu has been on a tear lately and the target share at the wide receiver position in Kansas City is extremely volatile outside of JuJu. He’s likely just a GPP play for me this week.
Christian Kirk ($5,900 DK / $6,800 FD) – Christian Kirk is finally back to his early season fantasy ways and makes for an excellent, affordable piece to this expected shootout. The Jaguars will no doubt be playing from behind and that should bode well for Jacksonville’s top target. I prefer Kirk in NFL DFS GPP lineups, but ownership projections warrant considering Kirk in cash games as well. I personally do not love the matchup against L’Jarius Sneed. On the outside, Zay Jones is also a nice piece of this positive passing gamescript we’ll likely see from Jacksonville.
Diontae Johnson ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD) – It looks like Diontae Johnson is going to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate which makes him an excellent NFL DFS cash game option. Marshon Lattimore will again sit out with injury this week and the Saints’ run the most man coverage in the NFL… advantage Diontae. Do not forget about George Pickens as well for a bit of a discount in all formats!
Jerry Jeudy ($5,700 DK / $6,400 FD) & Courtland Sutton ($5,600 DK / $6,200 FD) – It’s disgusting, but I low-key love this matchup for Russell Wilson and the Broncos’ wide receivers against a pass-funnel Titans’ defense. The ownership projections are currently in Courtland Sutton’s favor, I prefer Jerry Jeudy by a nose. Sutton does get the significant matchup upgrade against the Titans’ Cover-2 and Cover-3 zone defense. Jeudy should excel against their man coverage looks. I’m FINE using either one of them in all formats.

Honorable Mention: CeeDee Lamb, Davante Adams, Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Darnell Mooney, George Pickens, Zay Jones, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Mack Hollins

GPP Only:

Chase Claypool ($4,800 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you like this game, Chase Claypool is the deadliest fantasy weapon on the field at all times now that he’s moved outside in the Bears’ offense. The snap share will certainly tick-up significantly from last week and there’s not a corner in the division that can truly body him up. If this game shoots-out, Claypool should be a big part of that.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling ($4,100 DK / $5,400 FD) – Way too cheap for exposure to 80% of the Kansas City offensive snaps. With Mecole Hardman out (that breaks my heart), MVS should be in a great spot here and finally have a bit of a role in the red-zone offense (or it’s simply all Kelce and JuJu). He’s the #1 AETY Model value at the wide receiver position this week.
Christian Watson ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD) – Here we go… the 0% owned call of the week (more of a prayer, lol). With Romeo Doubs OUT, the AETY Model is extremely high on the Packers’ most talented rookie, Christian Watson. Watson is an absolute freak of a talent and finally enters a game healthy and on paper, the WR2 of this Packers’ offense. I trust that LaFleur will finally get Watson heavily involved in the game-plan (they kind of have to do something different, don’t they?) and get him a jet-sweep or two while they’re at it. Watson moves all over the formation and if we get a week where he gets 60% or more of the offensive snaps, production will come… And it will come in bunches.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,800 DK / $8,500 FD) – The best tight-end on this slate by a mile. Lock him in for all formats of NFL DFS lineups if you can afford it!
Dalton Schultz ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD) – Great price in all formats. I value him as a low-end WR2 who happens to get Tight-End eligibility.
Greg Dulcich ($3,400 DK / $5,900 FD) – Dulcich will be the chalk tight-end in NFL DFS cash games in Week 10. I’m OK if you run with the pack and take the chalk spot there, but I am a 100% fade in GPP lineups. I’m just not playing a punt, chalk tight-end in GPP lineups when Kelce is on the slate.
Evan Engram ($3,300 DK / $4,900 FD) – Cheap exposure to the Jacksonville passing game. Engram gets a nice boost in expected target share against the Chiefs’ heavy usage of Cover-2 zone defense.

Honorable Mention: Pat Freiermuth, Juwan Johnson

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers
Arizona Cardinals
Minnesota Vikings

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

Tony Pollard (if Elliott is out)
Dameon Pierce
Amon-Ra St. Brown
Justin Fields
Travis Kelce

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and DFS slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Wide Receivers: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

WIN 3 years ago

written by WIN

This week will be a little tougher to choose your favorite Wide Receivers due to how many great options we have. Ownership is spread out a bit this week at the WR position, so let me help you break it down a little deeper. If you don’t know how I typically play the game, I generally like to build my lineups based on ownership. Bear in mind there will be times when we don’t have a clear picture of what that looks like until game day. With that being said, I do like to wait and see what the field is doing so this article may be a little on the later side than the standard. This way we can stay with the pack, in cash games, and pivot to those high-upside players in GPP-style contests. Don’t forget to look at the bottom of this article for other players I really like as well. Once you’re done scanning this article make sure to hop in our Discord chat to stay up to date with lineup discussions.

Let’s dive into NFL DFS Wide Receivers for this week’s main slate.

TYREEK HILL, MIA $9,100 DRAFTKINGS $9,000 FANDUEL

Tyreek Hill is a player that I just want to play each and every week and he’s just been on fire. Stacking this game is one of my favorite options on the slate. Miami has a favorable matchup this week against a Browns team who has been allowing on average 14 yards per catch to the WR position. Tua paired with Hill, or even stacking with Waddle and running it back with DPJ, looks really good this week. The upside is super high with Hill each and every week.

AMON-RA ST. BROWN, DET $6,900 DRAFTKINGS $6,900 FANDUEL

I’m starting to get tired writing this guy up, but here we go again. He seems finally to be at full strength and when that’s the case, typically we see a big game. When he’s been healthy, he’s had over 10 targets in those games, and averaging 23 FPG. He’s going to be high owned, so maybe tread a little lighter in tournaments.

DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES, CLE $4,300 DRAFTKINGS $5,700 FANDUEL

DPJ is looking like he can get some serious volume this week, and looks to be a strong cash game play in a contest where Cleveland will be forced to throw. They are up against one of the best passing attacks in the game right now, so you know they are going to be playing from behind, and this game should be very fast paced. Amari Cooper should draw shadow coverage, and this will only help out DPJ.

CHRISTIAN KIRK, JAX $5,900 DRAFTKINGS $6,800 FANDUEL

What if I told you the Chiefs have given up the 2nd-most FPG to opposing slot WRs. And they’ve also given up the 3rd-most FPG to opposing WR1s. The Jaguars should be forced to pass all day long, and the matchup is really strong for Kirk. He should be in for a huge game, with all the volume coming his way. Game stack this bad boy, and don’t look back.

JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, KC $6,000 DRAFTKINGS $7,000 FANDUEL

JuJu looks like a great play this week, with the Jacksonville defense giving up the 9th most FPG to slot WRs, which is where he runs over 40% of his routes. This week, Mecole Hardman is out, so therefore he’s going to see an increase in targets from the slot. Now we know Mahomes like to spread it around, JuJu is a guy that I’ll have in my pool, but I’m not going all in on. Kelce is a guy I think we can’t overlook this week, however any of these Wide Receivers can nuke the slate. I want to mention Tony here as well, as I think he gets more involved this week.

GEORGE PICKENS, PIT $5,000 DRAFTKINGS $5,600 FANDUEL

This will be Pickens first game without Chase Claypool, and he’ll immediately take on the WR1 job along with the numbers that come along with it. He’s just way too cheap still on both sites, and makes for a great cash play. You can also play him in tournaments, as I just think he gets the job done. Pickens was on a roll for a little bit with 6+ catches and 60+ yards in three of four games in Weeks 4-7. So let’s hope he gets back on track this week.

Honorable Mention: Jefferson, Adams, Diggs, Waddle, Kupp, Olave, Hopkins, Lamb

Value Plays: Burks, Dorsett, Jones Jr., Mooney, Zay, Slaton

ROCKER CORE CASH PLAYS: On the Sheet now in research channel

Thanks for reading our NFL DFS Wide Receivers article as the content is just getting started. There will be a boatload of content rolling in all week covering each position, cash games and tournaments. We will also have articles, videos, and podcasts so be sure to lock in with us in whichever way you like to! Don’t forget to check out our projection models and cheat sheets which will be updated throughout the week. Livestreams will be published each day on our YouTube page and make don’t forget to lock into our Sunday morning livestream to keep up to date with all the last-minute news.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Wide Receivers: Week 10 DraftKings & FanDuel Lineups

WIN 3 years ago

written by WIN

Let’s dive into NFL DFS Wide Receivers for this week’s main slate.

TYREEK HILL, MIA $9,100 DRAFTKINGS $9,000 FANDUEL

AMON-RA ST. BROWN, DET $6,900 DRAFTKINGS $6,900 FANDUEL

DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES, CLE $4,300 DRAFTKINGS $5,700 FANDUEL

CHRISTIAN KIRK, JAX $5,900 DRAFTKINGS $6,800 FANDUEL

JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, KC $6,000 DRAFTKINGS $7,000 FANDUEL

GEORGE PICKENS, PIT $5,000 DRAFTKINGS $5,600 FANDUEL

Honorable Mention: Jefferson, Adams, Diggs, Waddle, Kupp, Olave, Hopkins, Lamb

Value Plays: Burks, Dorsett, Jones Jr., Mooney, Zay, Slaton

ROCKER CORE CASH PLAYS: On the Sheet now in research channel

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

NFL DFS GPP Core (DraftKings)

Captain/MVP Plays

Aaron Rodgers, Packers ($15,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

Derrick Henry, Titans ($17,400 DraftKings, $17,000 FanDuel)

Christian Watson, Packers ($11,100 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Robert Tonyan, Packers ($5,800 DraftKings, $7,000 FanDuel)

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, Titans ($6,200 DraftKings, $10,000 FanDuel)

Packers D/ST ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

Check out our NFL Week 11 DFS Quarterbacks!

Josh Allen ($8,500 DraftKings/$9,200 FanDuel)

Lamar Jackson ($8,400 DraftKings/$8,400 FanDuel)

Jalen Hurts ($8,200 DraftKings/$8,800 FanDuel)

Justin Fields ($7,600 DraftKings/$8,700 FanDuel)

Joe Burrow ($6,800 DraftKings/$8,300 FanDuel)

Dak Prescott ($6,600 DraftKings/$7,500 FanDuel)

Marcus Mariota ($5,500 DraftKings/$7,200 FanDuel)

Captain/MVP Plays

Jalen Hurts, Eagles ($18,300 DraftKings, $17,500 FanDuel)

Curtis Samuel, Commanders ($9,900 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

AJ Brown, Eagles ($15,900 DraftKings, $14,500 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Joey Slye, Commanders ($3,800 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Jahan Dotson, Commanders ($5,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)

DeVonta Smith, Eagles ($8,000 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

Captain/MVP Plays

Christian McCaffrey, 49ers ($17,400 DraftKings, $17,00 FanDuel)

Joshua Palmer, Chargers ($11,700 DraftKings, $10,500 FanDuel)

Austin Ekeler, Chargers ($16,800 DraftKings, $16,500 FanDuel)

FLEX/AnyFLEX Plays

Deebo Samuel, 49ers ($8,800 DraftKings, $13,500 FanDuel)

Justin Herbert, Chargers ($10,600 DraftKings, $15,000 FanDuel)

Gerald Everett, Chargers ($6,200 DraftKings, $9,000 FanDuel)

Other Options

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8600 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

DERRICK HENRY $8300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

NICK CHUBB $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

JONATHAN TAYLOR $7500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

ALVIN KAMARA $7400 DraftKings $8600 FanDuel

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

DAMEON PIERCE $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6200

BONUS PICKS

TIER 1 DFS RUNNING BACKS

SAQUON BARKLEY $8600 DraftKings $9500 FanDuel

DERRICK HENRY $8300 DraftKings $9400 FanDuel

NICK CHUBB $8100 DraftKings $9000 FanDuel

JONATHAN TAYLOR $7500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

ALVIN KAMARA $7400 DraftKings $8600 FanDuel

TRAVIS ETIENNE $7100 DraftKings $8000 FanDuel

TIER 2 DFS RUNNING BACKS

TONY POLLARD $6500 DraftKings $7000 FanDuel

D’ANDRE SWIFT $6400 DraftKings $6800 FanDuel

DAMEON PIERCE $6300 DraftKings $7700 FanDuel

TIER 3 DFS RUNNING BACKS (VALUE TIER)

ISIAH PACHECO DraftKings $5000 FanDuel $6200

BONUS PICKS

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

NFL DFS Running Backs (Cash and GPP)

GPP Only:

NFL DFS Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

GPP Only:

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

NFL DFS Defense/Special Teams

NFL DFS: The Fab Five (DK Cash Games)

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