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Saturday Main Slate 12/24/22

Another week of top plays in the books as we approach the end of the regular season in 2022. Using the future HOF Tom Brady allowed us a ton of flexibility to pay up for studs like Derrick Henry, crushing at both positions. Here in Week 16 of the NFL, we may be getting into a bit of pivoting due to some inclement weather across the country. Also, remember, our slate will be tomorrow instead because of the holiday. Speaking of which, Merry Christmas everybody! Let us all celebrate with a little extra pocket money by building some winning lineups. Remember to check in on our Discord to keep up to speed and gain feedback on your builds. Christmas Eve Main Slate Breakdown is in full effect, let’s do this!

Bills @ Bears (+8.5) (O/U 37.5)

Bills

Soldier Field’s temperature will be in single digits with 22 MPH winds making the stadium feel like -30 degrees. But the Bills are a cold-weather team and if it weren’t for the high projected winds, I’d be comfortable with most of their players. We’ll stick with Josh Allen. He could be a little risky in cash, but great I feel in a GPP because of his low ownership due to weather. We should see plenty of running and dump-off passes tomorrow as well from the Bills. Dawson Knox, Devin Singletary, and James Cook are all in play to draft for this cold day in Chicago.

Bears

Same here for the Bears, baby, it’s cold outside! The only game in town is Justin Fields, who pretty much runs as it is(1,000 RuYDS this season). Now with the weather and lack of weapons, we may just see Justin taking off at every opportunity. Montgomery and Kmet should also be in the mix, but way too risky in my opinion so keep them out of cash. I am interested in the Bears’ DST though…we could see Buffalo cough the ball up a few times in this insanely cold weather, creating a great paydown for defense

Cash: J. Allen

GPP: D. Knox, D. Singletary, J. Fields, C. Kmet, D. Montgomery, Bears DST

Bengals @ Patriots (+3) (O/U 41.5)

Bengals

On the road in Foxboro to face a Bill Belichick team that was embarrassed in Las Vegas last week could spell trouble for some of these Bengals. The Patriots’ head coach will aim to eliminate their number one weapon…Ja’Marr Chase, which could lead to a decent performance from Tee Higgins. He’ll be under the radar at receiver, mainly because of the action moving toward Kansas City and Seattle for the slate. But Joe Burr fully weaponized is indeed a bad man regardless of whose defense he faces. Burrow having the big three in Chase, Higgins, and Mixon keeps him busy running the Bengals’ offense and climbing the fantasy charts.

Patriots

He’s been questionable for weeks, but Rhamondre has carried the entire Patriots’ offense since Damien Harris went down in Week 12. The Pats will ride the hot hand of Stevenson who ran for 172 yards and a touchdown against the Raiders in Week 15, regardless of the status of Harris and the improving Cincinnati front line.

Cash: R. Stevenson

GPP: T. Higgins, J. Burrow

Seahawks @ Chiefs (-10) (O/U 49)

Seahawks

Another blistery cold scene this Saturday. Seattle is trying to keep their playoff hopes alive and will need to pull off a Christmas miracle in the Kingdom to do so. They’re 10-point dogs, scripted to be playing from behind and forcing Geno to air it out against a Chiefs’ pass-friendly 29th DVOA. No Tyler Lockett spells heavy volume for DK Metcalf, but also for tight end Noah Fant and receiver Marquise Goodwin. Kenneth Walker has been cleared to play but I would be careful spending up on a running back who hasn’t practiced all week from back and ankle injuries.

Chiefs

Mahomes, Kelce, and the Chiefs continue to rack up notches in the win column, but barely. Their defense has not been premium, allowing inferior opponents like the Texans and Broncos to stay in games until the end. We love it for DFS though, as Mahomes will keep the offense on the field for even more production. Seattle’s run defense will be the most targeted of the slate, ranking second worst in the league and driving DFS managers to use the likes of Isiah Pacheco and Jerick Mckinnon, who has put up over 34 DK points in back-to-back weeks.

Cash: P. Mahomes, I. Pacheco, D. Metcalf, T. Kelce

GPP: G. Smith, M. Goodwin, N. Fant, I. Pacheco, J. Mckinnon

Lions @ Panthers (+3) (O/U 43.5)

Lions

We still may see some frigid temps even in the Carolinas tomorrow afternoon. Jared Goff has not been at his best outdoors, leaving us managers out in the cold for desiring any of Detroit’s roster. But Amon-Ra St. Brown is rock solid and Goff’s first line of attack in the open field. He’s seen 119 targets in just 13 games this season, facing a Panthers’ 23rd in DVOA to opposing receivers, we simply can’t fade him.

Panthers

The Sam Darnold experiment in Carolina is somewhat gaining momentum, breathing life back into stud wideout DJ Moore. He cashed in for 176 receiving yards and two touchdowns in three games back with Darnold. Detroit spews fantasy production to opposing receivers (30th in DVOA). Even though it may be a little chilly tomorrow afternoon, Moore should feast in this matchup.

Cash: D. Moore

GPP: A. St. Brown

Giants @ Vikings (-4.5) (O/U 48)

Giants

The G-Men escape the winter wonderland on the slate, and finally, get a friendlier opponent to score on. Quarterback Daniel Jones made the QB article this week and rightfully so. Minnesota’s secondary has looked like a dumpster fire of late, allowing QBs Jared Goff and Mike White to score close to 30 DK points this month. Jones and the Giants’ entire offense gets an upgrade here, especially on a slate full of bad-weather games.

Vikings

Fresh off a record-breaking comeback win, the Vikings look to keep the fire going against New York. Not only did mainstreamers Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook, and Justin Jefferson crush, second-year wideout K J Osborn had a breakout game (10 REC/157 YDS/1 TD). The Giants’ defense has struggled lately, losing many starters to injury and allowing fantasy points to just about every offensive position (30th in rushing DVOA; 14th in receiving DVOA). In what looks to be another high-scoring bonanza, start up your Vikings.

Cash: K. Cousins, S. Barkley, J. Jefferson

GPP: D. Slayton, I. Hodgins, D. Jones, D. Cook, K. Osborn, R. James

Texans @ Titans (-3) (O/U 35.5)

Texans

The season can’t end any sooner for the one-win Texans, who are looking to be without Nico Collins and Dameon Pierce for a second straight game. however, Brandin Cooks may be on the mend and finally get to suit up after a three-game hiatus against Tennessee. The weather may also be a factor in Tennessee, but against this pass-funnel defense ( dead last in DVOA), and possibly being the only option at receiver for Houston, he is worth a second look in DFS.

Titans

It’s officially Malik Willis season in Tennessee, but that might not be a good thing. The rookie has been unwilling to throw the ball, passing for no more than 80 yards a game in three starts. Which could only mean more work for Derrick Henry, but may also lead to more stacked boxes. The matchup is written on the wall for Henry, Houston is dead-last against the run making him the play of the week at running back.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: B. Cooks

Saints @ Browns (-2.5) (O/U 32.5)

Saints

New Orleans will be without most of their offense when they land in Cleveland to face off against the Browns. Literally at receiver will be a practice squad for the Saints, as Olave will sit and Jarvis Landry placed on season-ending IR. So are we good with Kamara in a windchill of -30 in Cleveland? I’ll pass, not worth the risk for a guy who has been a dud all year. If you want a dark horse, how about Taysom Hill? Dalton won’t last without any receivers and 30 MPH winds…(Browns DST Hint Hint). The Saints may display a ton of their Swiss-Army knife of Hill on Saturday for his rushing, passing, and catching abilities.

Browns

The Browns’ new feature quarterback Deshawn Watson has looked mediocre, in decent weather, he’s barely come close to 20 fantasy points. Working from behind one of the best offensive lines in football, the Browns will lean on their bell cow, Nick Chubb. He’s been disappointing lately, but the Saints have given up over 250 yards on the ground in their last three games. Rub a dub with Chubb.

Cash: Browns DST

GPP: N. Chubb, T. Hill

Falcons @ Ravens (-7.5) (O/U 35.5)

Falcons

We got a decent dose of the Desmond Ridder experience last week, but it was more of a Tyler Algeier week after he rushed for 139 yards and a touchdown. Ridder showed the true colors of his inexperience, but there was chemistry with fellow rookie Drake London, who caught seven balls for 70 yards. The Falcons will see another tough matchup on the road in Baltimore out in the cold where it will be difficult to rush against their 6th-in DVOA run defense, and passing into the wind. play it safe and keep away from the dirty birds, or pay up for the Raven DST.

Ravens

The only thing keeping the Ravens afloat in the playoff race has been their defense and J K Dobbins as of late. Besides losing last week to the Browns, opposing teams have been held under 15 points since Week 12. The real story for the Ravens’ success without Lamar Jackson has been hot off IR Dobbins, who has rushed for over 100 yards in both games, scoring one TD. He’ll see plenty of action against an Atlanta team that gives up 130 yards per game, for under $6K on DraftKings I’m all in on Dobbins. Let’s not forget about tight end Mark Andrews though. I know he’s been on a milk carton, but the man is just due a solid game. He finally will see a below-average defender (28th against tight ends) and has a ceiling that could break the slate for the position.

Cash: J. Dobbins, Raven DST

GPP: M. Andrews

Commanders @ Niners (-7) (O/U 38)

Commanders

Washington caught a tough break from a few bad penalty calls in last week’s loss to the Giants. San Fransisco will not show them any sympathy on the road, as they could put the Commanders’ offense in a vise on Saturday (1st in DVOA for run defense). Running back Antonio Gibson saw a 60 % snap share while trailing New York as the pass-catching option in the backfield for Washington. Gibson may be involved in a similar role against a Niner team that has been scoring at will, forcing Washington to again play catch-up. He’ll be a treat as a low-priced flex option at $5,300 on DraftKings.

Niners

This may be the week we see Brandon Aiyuk finally hit it off with Purdy. The Commanders should stay in their Cover 1 formation, where Aiyuk torched them back in 2020 for 10 receptions on 16 targets for 119 yards. In a game unaffected by the bad weather across the country, lightning may strike twice with Aiyuk facing Washington’s beatable corners of St.-Juste and Fuller.

Cash: B. Aiyuk

GPP: A. Gibson

Eagles @ Cowboys (-5) (O/U 47.5)

Eagles

The Eagles are in Dallas and will be without the front-runner for MVP, Jalen Hurts, who suffered a shoulder injury against Chicago in Week 15. But backup Gardner Minshew is no stranger to the football field, leading the Jaguars to seven wins from 2019-2020. Hands down he is probably the best second-string QB out there and built great chemistry with tight end Dallas Goedert, hooking up for two touchdowns in Week 13 of last season. Philadelphia is at full strength offensively now with Goedert back from IR but will be a different team without Hurts‘ running threat, in turn giving more volume to Miles Sanders.

Cowboys

The Philly corners Bradberry and Slay have been two book ends in the secondary, crushing every receiver in sight. Dallas will need to move the ball with CeeDee Lamb on the inside to line up across slot corner Avonte Maddox, giving him a huge mismatch in height and speed. The other approach for the Cowboys will be to run the rock with Pollard right up the gut. Screens, outlets, and toss passes will be on the menu for the new sheriff in the Dallas’ backfield.

Cash: M. Sanders, C. Lamb, T. Pollard

GPP: G. Minshew, D. Goedert, D. Smith, A. Brown, Eagles DST

Cash Core

P. Mahomes, D. Henry, M. Sanders, J. Jefferson, T. Kelce

GPP Core

D. Jones, N. Chubb, I. Pacheco, D. Metcalf, M. Andrews, DJ Moore

Stacks

P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco….G. Smith/DK Metcalf/M. Goodwin/N. Fant

D. Jones/ D. Slayton/S. Barkley…K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/K. Osborn

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 16. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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If you didn’t make the playoffs in your season long, then welcome to DFS if you are just joining us! Week 14 we crushed, what else is new? Russell Wilson blew up your lineup can you believe it? He was in our cash game breakdown along with Jerry Jeudy catching three touchdowns. Time to break down Week 15 and get back into the money once again. Remember to check in on our discord for all news and questions to help you get ready for Sunday’s ten-game slate. This article is here to help you decide on a strategy for who to pick up in DFS from each game of the slate, so let’s do this!

Sunday Main Slate 12/18/22

Eagles @ Bears (+9) (O/U 48.5)

Eagles

The number one MVP candidate Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles should continue their onslaught of the NFL in Chicago. The Bears have been unable to stop anybody from scoring points let alone the best team in the NFL. It will be an air raid, forming a big lead by halftime and then running it down Chicago’s throat in the second half. Start up as many Eagles as possible, the more the merrier.

Bears

Justin Fields has been cleared to play, but is it worth putting him out there against one of the top defenses in the league? If he can pay off his salary, it would have to be with his legs, but that’s a very risky move this week (2nd in DVOA to quarterbacks). Chicago’s top receiver Darnell Mooney went down with a season-ending injury before their bye week, leaving Cole Kmet as the only game in town. But to be safe, stay away from the Bears and start the Philly defense, which could have less than 10% ownership.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown, D. Smith, M. Sanders

GPP: D. Goedert (if activated off IR), C. Kmet

Cowboys @ Jaguars (+4) (O/U 48)

Cowboys

Dallas has been leaning on their run game with their one-two-punch of Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard, keeping them in the playoff picture. The success of the game plan in retrospect has driven down the volume and DFS salary of quarterback Dak Prescott. Although I do like both running backs along with Cee Dee Lamb and Schultz, Dak is just way too cheap to pass up on, especially against Jacksonville (26th DVOA to quarterbacks)

Jaguars

There are going to be some points to be put up on the scoreboard in this game, and with the Jaguars most likely playing from behind, Trevor Lawrence should be busy. The Cowboys love the blitz, so he’ll need to get the ball out quickly, and what better receiver than Christian Kirk? As he approaches 1000 yards with seven touchdowns on the season, Kirk will lineup in the slot and use his great separation ability to move the chains.

Cash: D. Prescott, E. Elliot, T. Pollard, C. Lamb

GPP: C. Kirk, D Schultz, T. Lawrence

Chiefs @ Texans (+14) (O/U 49)

Chiefs

Kansas City rolls into Houston as heavy favorites, so there’s always the factor of a very safe but pricey Patrick Mahones and Travis Kelce may sit out in the second half. This brings rookie running back Isaiah Pacheco back into the conversation. He’ll be a safe investment facing the Texans’ 32nd in DVOA run defense in a positive game script. Don’t fall for the trap of Jerick McKinnon, this game will be dominated, and his third-down capabilities will not be needed in this one. check out that Chiefs DST too. Houston has been playing quarterback musical chairs lately, which could spell out some turnovers.

Texans

The 2023 drive can’t get here any sooner for Houston. As we watch Lovie Smith play around with quarterbacks in tight ends who knows what will see out there? One thing for sure is Chris Moore. Receiver Nico Collins was ruled out and Brandin Cooks has been asking for a trade, possibly faking his injuries all season. Making for the second week in a row, Chris Moore is the top option again in Houston, against a pass-friendly defense in Kansas City (32nd DVOA to receivers).

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

GPP: C. Moore

Lions @ Jets (-1) (O/U 44.5)

Lions

Jared Goff on the road has not looked good this season. And against the stingy Jets’ defense, I’d be a little weary of taking any Detroit players this weekend. The weather looks to be cold and wet in New Jersey, but with news breaking that Mike White will sit and Zach Wilson is back under center, give me that Lions DST all day.

Jets

Say it ain’t so Coach Salah! Mike White’s ribs will sit him down forcing second-year quarterback Zach Wilson back into the mix. This crushes, the dreams of having Garrett Wilson and Elijah Moore in so many lineups this weekend, leaving The only safe play as running back Bam Knight. But don’t forget Jared Goff is in town to play in the elements, take a shot with the Jets DST baby!

Cash: Z. Knight

GPP: Jets DST, Lions DST

Steelers @ Panthers (-3) (O/U 37.5)

Steelers

Oh boy, this could get ugly. Kenny Pickett is doubtful, which could lead to a quarterback timeshare of the biscuit Mitch Trubisky, and Mason Rudolph. Even if Pittsburgh chooses to run the ball hard with Najee, he’s been banged up all season. Give me some of that Carolina DST.

Panthers

The Sam Darnold experience hasn’t been too bad, as they make a run at the NFC south division. The top pass catch and stud DJ Moore was shaken up by a knee sprain, which may lead to Terrace Marshall getting a few extra looks. For $3,500 on DraftKings, he’s worth a gander.

Cash: Carolina DST

GPP: T. Marshall, DJ Moore (if healthy)

Falcons @ Saints (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Falcons

It’s officially Desmond Ridder season. So we shall wait and see, where we may have a nice connection with fellow rookie Drake London. But they would be very risky in DFS this weekend, take a shot in a GPP if you’re feeling lucky. rookies do make rookie mistakes so the SaintsDST would be a nice play here.

Saints

Well, the Big Easy will be rolling with Andy Dalton again at quarterback. Let’s not even go there, Alvin Kamara will own the entire backfield now that Mark Ingram is done for the season, and at $6,800 on DraftKings, I’m all in. New Orleans’ punt-tight end of the year could be back on the field as well, go grab Juwan Johnson if he’s available.

Cash: A. Kamara

GPP: J. Johnson, Saints DST, D. London, D. Ridder

Patriots @ Raiders (+1) (O/U 44.5)

Patriots

Mac Jones and the Patriots will try to lock up the seventh seed in the AFC in Sin City, a game with some potential for fireworks. But they’ve been hit badly by injuries to the running back and receiver positions. Lucky for them to be playing the Raiders, who cannot even defend against AARP members (27th DVOA to quarterbacks) these days. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, and Ty Thornton may hit a ton of value at receiver, and Damien Harris (if healthy) at running back would take over for the injured Rhamondre Stevenson. Otherwise, go in deep for Pierre Strong or Kevin Harris for a Milli-Maker shot!

Raiders

If the Raiders do somehow manage to make it into the playoffs, it will be on the shoulders of Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams. The window is getting smaller and smaller, so it may be more on Adams this week because of the tough run defense of the Patriots. Adams is a lock all around DFS, especially since Derek Carr put on his blinders, solely looking for him to get open all year.

Cash: D. Adams, D. Harris (if he plays)

GPP: N.Agholor, K. Bourne, T. Thornton, H. Henry, P. Strong/K. Harris ( if D. Harris is out)

Cardinals @ Broncos (-3) (O/U 36)

Cardinals

So who will be throwing the ball and calling plays in Arizona this weekend? We all saw Kyler Murray go down Monday night and now backup Colt McCoy is banged up. Hopkins is safe with McCoy, but who knows if McSorley can keep the Cardinals’ number-one receiver fed. The only reliable play in Arizona would be James Conner, who would be in line for a ton of work due to the shakiness at quarterback.

Broncos

With a low-point total, a shaky backup, and a possible third-string quarterback, the Bronco defense is a muststart. Denver has issues at quarterback too with Russell Wilson, who may not play. Enter backup Brett Rypien, who has a huge man crush on tight ends(8 targets). He will be all over Dulcich if he gets the call, otherwise, we pivot to Jeudy again if Russell plays.

Update: Wilson is out, with Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton… Fire up Jeudy!,

McSorely starting for the Cardinals

Cash: Broncos DST

GPP: J. Conner, G. Dulcich, J. Jeudy

Bengals @ Bucs (+3.5) (O/U 44)

Bengals

The Bucs’ secondary will be a hot mess on Sunday, especially now without cornerback Jamel Dean. Fellow corner Sean MurphyBunting along with safeties Antoine Winfield and Mike Edwards may also miss Week 15, making it open season for Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. Great news for Joe Burrow, and even Joe Mixon now that Tampa will also be without defensive tackle Veta Veya. Stack up on the Bengals for a possible slate-breaker!

Bucs

If Tampa looks to lock up the NFC South and keep their playoff hopes alive, they’ll need to start making some plays. They can, and Brady is due for a monster game. What he lacks with his legs he can make up for with his passing attempts, and for $5,500 on DraftKings, I would take a shot. He’s your pay-down quarterback of the week, with both All-Pro receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in line for the usual heavy workload.

Cash: T. Brady, J. Chase, J. Mixon, C. Godwin

GPP: J. Burrow, M. Evans, T. Higgins

Titans @ Chargers (-3) (O/U 47.5)

Titans

If we’re looking to pay up this week at running back, look no further than Derrick Henry. The Chargers have struggled all season defending the run (28th in DVOA), allowing close to 150 RuYDS/game. Henry could hit that mark by halftime at Sofy Stadium. He won’t run every down though, so when Tannehill looks to throw it downfield, his new shiny toy Chig Okonkwo will be there on the receiving end. Both are safe, but chalky plays in Tennessee.

Chargers

Tennessee defends against the pass as well as the Chargers against the run…terribly. The Titans have been a pass-funnel defense at second to last in DVOA on the year, putting Justin Herbert and his receivers in the driver’s seat. Give me a stack of powder blue jerseys in my lineups this weekend and I could sleep like a baby. Allen, Ekeler, and Williams can roll out in any game style, but Gerald Everett would be sneaky.

Cash: D. Henry, J. Herbert, K. Allen

GPP: C. Okonkwo, A. Ekeler, M. Williams, G. Everett

Cash Core

J. Hurts, D. Henry, J. Chase, C. Moore, T. Kelce

GPP Core

T. Brady, M. Sanders, D. Adams. I. Pacheco, G. Dulcich

Stacks

T. Brady, C. Godwin, M. Evans, W/ Run-back J. Mixon or J. Burrow, J. Chase, T. Higgs

J. Herbert, K. Allen, M. Williams, W/ Run-back D. Henry

P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, I. Pacheco, W/ Run-back C. Moore

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 15. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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Week 13 in the books and it was a monster for us! A less than one percent-owned Trent Sherfield smashed in our lineups for over 14 fantasy points, we sweated it out for that one bomb he caught and it paid off for us! Let’s get right into Week 14’s breakdown, where we may find another scratch-off winner like Sherfield..who knows?! It’s a tight slate this week with six teams on bye, and as the player pool shrinks, the less of a margin for error. Stay on our Discord for all news, questions, and expert analysis. Week 14 is here fellas, are we ready…Here we go!

Sunday Main Slate 12/11/22

Vikings @ Lions (-2.5) (O/U 53)

Vikings

Well, here it is on a silver platter ladies and gentlemen, the game of the week. In what appears to be the contest to attack in DFS with a 53 under/over, pick up a few purple jerseys for your lineups. Jefferson put up a dud in their first meeting, so I anticipate some retribution from number 18. By all means, mix it up and grab other pieces to be different…Cousins, Dalvin, Thielen, and oh yeah my favorite Viking, The Hock. Detroit tossed him to the side for draft capital back in Week 8, so you know he is destined to get in the box against his old teammates in his old stomping ground. Minnesota has put up 60 points in the last two games, Let’s ride!

Lions

Same scenario here guys, grab your Lions. Both Detroit and Minnesota allow the most points (25) and total yardage (400YDS/Game) in the league. When two teams face off with bad defenses, it’s a DFS match made in heaven. Jared Goff may be the most popular quarterback of the slate, because of his price and upside. Amon-Ra Is on a serious heater scoring over 30 fantasy points in two games, sign me up. But let’s get different on the Detroit side too. Running backs Jamal Williams, the end zone monster with 14 touchdowns and D’Andre Swift are both enticing under $6K on DraftKings, but how about DJ Chark? He could be sneaky against a Vikings’ 30th DVOA to receivers and easily give us another repeat performance of 14 fantasy points.

Cash: K. Cousins, J. Jefferson, A. St. Brown, J. Goff

GPP: D. Cook, J. Williams, DJ Chark, TJ Hockenson, D. Swift

Eagles @ Giants (+7) (O/U 45.5)

Eagles

Philly could roll into Met Life Stadium and steamroll over a Giants’ team destroyed by injuries on both sides of the ball. Besides New York’s already beat-up secondary, they now lose their top pass rusher, Leonard Williams, this Sunday. Fly Eagles Fly… Hurts is always cash and GPP-friendly, and his teammates AJ Brown, and Devonta Smith pair nicely if you can squeeze their hefty salaries in. But we may see more of a Miles Sanders-type of game script. He may see plenty of carries against a 26th DVOA run defense, chewing up the clock against a Giants’ team that could struggle to move the chains.

Giants

The slot has been the key way to get the ball moving against the tough-as-nails Eagles’ defense. Punt alert, Ritchie James…let’s roll! The Giants most likely will be playing from behind all game, and with Saquon Barkley now on the injury report, quarterback Danny Jones becomes the best rusher by default (if Barkley sits out). Another nice dart throw…Rookie tight end Daniel Bellinger has built some chemistry with Jones, picking up where he left off after an eye injury and getting five looks. Well worth a shot at $3,300 on DraftKings, who’s no stranger to the end zone (3TDs).

Cash: J. Hurts, AJ Brown, D. Smith

GPP: M. Sanders, D. Jones, D. Bellinger, R. James

Jets @ Bills (-9.5) (O/U 43.5)

Jets

In his third start this season, quarterback Mike White will have his feet put to the fire against a tough Buffalo defense on the road. Will he get to throw it 57 times like in Minnesota? Not a chance, but bet your last dollar the ball will be aimed at the rookie Garrett Wilson, who caught eight of an insane 15 targets. Although I’m positive the Buffalo defensive coordinator has something in store for Garrett after watching the tape, so taking a stab at Elijah Moore for $3,500 on DraftKings would be sexy in a GPP.

Bills

Buffalo needs this game to stay on top of the division and even up the score with New York. The bills go as far as their leader Josh Allen will take them. He’s got a tough match up but that didn’t stop him back in Week 9 from putting up 27 fantasy points in a road loss to New York. The Jets have been stingy to receivers ranking 6th in DVOA, so we may not want to pay up for Diggs this week. It’s feeling like a paydown week in Buffalo for me, and it’s for a chalk-a-potomous James Cook at $4,600 on DraftKings. The rookie caught six passes on top of rushing for 64 yards last week and appears to be moving in on Devon Singletary’s job at the moment.

Cash: J. Allen, G. Wilson

GPP: E. Moore, J. Cook

Browns @ Bengals (-6) (O/U 47)

Browns

Well, you got what you paid for if you took DeShaun Watson last week, a six-burger. Nick Chubb also had an off game in Houston, but he wasn’t needed since the Cleveland Browns’ defense put up 30 fantasy points themselves. I’ll look for him to bounce back this weekend against Cincinnati, pairing him with that defense that went from putting up 30 fantasy points to second cheapest on the slate…Who is in charge of the pricing on DK? As for Watson, I’m still in wait-and-see mode, but Amari Cooper did see the most targets (9) from the Browns’ new signal caller, if he plays he’s a tournament darling.

Bengals

Cleveland has owned Burrow for his career but is when Joe breaks out of his slump against his division rival. On paper, it does with a healthy Chase, Tee Higgins, and of course Joe Mixon, who may see a ton of work after missing a game from a concussion, against one of the worst run defenses in football. Don’t forget about Watson’s egg he laid in Houston either. He’ll get there eventually, but this week he may still show some rust. Give me a piece of the Bengals’ defense too.

Cash: J. Burrow, J. Mixon, N. Chubb, J. Chase

GPP: A. Cooper, T. Higgins, Browns DST, Bengals DST

Texans @ Cowboys (-17) (O/U 44.5)

Texans

Well, it looks like Houston is mailing it in for the season for the number one pick. Receivers Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins have already been ruled out, opening up the entire offense for the rookie Dameon Pierce. We may not want to go that route though, as 17-point underdogs the Texans will be playing from behind a ton. Davis Mills will be returning as the starter and will have Chris Moore and Philip Dorsett to target, providing us some value this weekend at receiver.

Cowboys

The absolute worst rushing defense will face one of the best backfield duos in the league this weekend in Dallas. Tony Pollard and Ezekiel Elliott have averaged a combined 30 fantasy points per game this season, a plug-and-play for a slot or two at running back in DFS. I don’t mind rolling them both out there at the same time either, stack them with that Dallas defense too, if you can afford them.

Cash: T. Pollard, Cowboys DST, E. Elliot

GPP: C. Moore, P. Dorsett

Jaguars @ Titans (-3.5) (O/U 41.5)

Jaguars

Receiver Christian Kirk came through big time last week as we called it, but it might be a Zay Jones kind of day in Tennessee. The Titans just do not blitz, which should open up a lot of routes for Jones, If he plays. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence does have a bum foot but we’ll give it a go, so let’s wait and see some news on Zay’s injury.

Titans

Treylon Burks, Tennessee’s number-one receiver, won’t make it out on the field this weekend. No worries, Tennessee will just keep riding the Derek Henry train until he falls off the tracks. Maybe not this Sunday though, as he has plowed over Jacksonville for his career. In his last three games since the 2020 season, he has rushed for a total of 429 yards with five touchdowns. He’ll have low ownership again this weekend, so jam him in your GPP lineups.

Cash: D. Henry

GPP: Z. Jones

Ravens @ Steelers (-2.5) (O/U 37)

Ravens

Baltimore as we all know by now will be without quarterback Lamar Jackson with a knee issue. Backup Tyler Huntley gets the start, where we probably won’t see much of a drop-off in an offense that is bone dry in weapons. Huntley is a risk, but as we have seen in previous starts Mark Andrews gets all the love when he is under center. Last season In five games alongside Huntley, Mark Andrews totaled 43 catches for 498 yards and three touchdowns.

Steelers

I’ve mentioned Huntley as a risky play, and he’s coughed up the ball four times in four starts in 2021. The Pittsburgh DST is a great play at home especially if TJ Watt gets on the field. Now Kenny Pickett didn’t give us what we expected in Atlanta, but I like the rookie at home against the Baltimore secondary who is 25th in DVOA to quarterbacks. $5,200 on DraftKings is a huge value on a slate trying to roster pieces from Detroit and Minnesota.

Cash: Steelers DST, M. Andrews

GPP: T. Huntley, K. Pickett

Chiefs @ Broncos (+9) (O/U 43)

Chiefs

The matchup looks grim on paper but that shouldn’t keep us from taking one of the best quarterback/tight end duos in history. Mahomes and Kelce should see some low ownership this weekend, jam them in tournaments too. But I still can’t stop clicking on Pacheco! Less than 10 percent owned and for two weeks finding the endzone, he’s like found money. And let’s not forget about the defense cheat code for DFS, Broncos country…the Chiefs DST is in play here.

Broncos

Is the season over yet? That’s what everybody in Denver has been saying since Week 1. It makes me nauseous of the thought of taking Russell Wilson for $5,200 on DraftKings, but it’s the Chiefs who are one of the most pass-friendly defenses (27th in DVOA). And now without Courtland Sutton this Sunday, Jerry Jeudy is a lock for volume for a bargain at $5,400 on DraftKings.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Jeudy

GPP: R. Wilson, I. Pacheco, Chiefs DST

Panthers @ Seahawks (-4.5) (O/U 43.5)

Panthers

DJ Moore is the guy again in Carolina since Sam Darnold has been plugged back in at quarterback for the Panthers. Last week he only saw six looks, but they cashed in for four grabs with 103 yards and a touchdown. Hey but wait a sec, remember D’Onta Foreman? The dude has had four 100-yard games with four touchdowns since taking over McCaffrey. Facing the second-worst run defense in Seattle? Yea, I like them apples.

Seahawks

The Seahawk backfield has been hit hard by injuries, and we still don’t know if Kenneth Walker III or backup DeeJay Dallas will be able to go. Head coach Pete Carroll may want to just throw it all day, and nobody can guard DK Metcalf. But is Travis Homer worth a shot at in the Seattle running back committee? I think he is. On their depth chart, Homer is the true second back on the depth chart, seeing 30 percent of the snaps when Walker was dominating the position. Now that he’s healthy again, he could be very sneaky as a flex in a tournament.

Cash: DJ Moore, DK Metcalf

GPP: T. Homer (if Walker III is out), D. Foreman

Bucs @ Niners (-3.5) (O/U 37)

Bucs

We are still waiting on some news out of Tampa regarding the status of Fournette. If he can’t roll out, lock up Rashaad White. Don’t drink the kool-aid on San Francisco being a shut-down run defense either, they just haven’t seen any big threats in my opinion. The Chargers, Falcons, and Bears all feasted in rushing, leaving no reason for White to get his. One more nugget I’d like to add via StixJulio Jones could be this week’s Trent Sherfield fellas. For only $4,000 on DK he has a clear height advantage over the Niners’ worst corner Lenoir. Julio is a well-worth dart throw on a very unowned receiver for the slate.

Niners

Well, it’s officially Brock Purdy season, since Jimmy G broke his foot last week against the Dolphins. The rookie filled in nicely, throwing two touchdowns in the victory. The Niners should take the ultra-conservative approach moving forward, relying mostly on their defense and keeping the ball in their playmakers like McCaffrey. CMC’s workload may be on the rise, but risky until we see what we get on Sunday. If you’re feeling lucky, take a dirt cheap Purdy ($5,100 on DraftKings) in a GPP and mix it up in cash or a tournament with McCaffrey.

Cash: R. White (if Fournette is out), C. McCaffrey (GPP too)

GPP: B. Purdy, J. Jones

Cash Core

J. Hurts/A. St. Brown/J. Mixon/T. Pollard/M. Andrews

GPP Core

J. Goff/Z. Jones(if he plays)/D. Henry/TJ Hockenson/DJ Moore

Stacks

J. Goff/A. St. Brown/J. Williams/DJ Chark/D. Swift

K. Cousins/J. Jefferson/D. Cook/TJ Hockenson

J. Hurts/AJ Brown/D. Smith/M. Sanders

J. Burrow/J. Chase/T. Higgins/J. Mixon

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 14. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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It felt like only yesterday that we kicked off the NFL season and already it’s Week 13. And what a week we are in store for in DFS, with five of the twelve games having totals of 47 to 52.5. As you will read in this article, there will be so many ways to victory that you may be forced to create more lineups than you normally would. Also, make sure you check out my take on the Cleveland/Houston matchup, don’t be so quick to run and use Deshaun Watson in his first game back in 700 days. Not to throw any shade on him, but by all means, go with your gut if you are feeling that move. This week just has a smorgasbord of pivots and angles to attack in DFS, so remember to refer back to our Discord and Projection Models when building your lineups. Let’s gooo!

Sunday Main Slate 12/4/22

Titans @ Eagles (-4.5) (O/U 44.5)

Titans

Tennessee will continue to ride the coattails of Derrick Henry and not make it a secret. But will he come up short again like last week? The Eagles have made some improvements in free agency (Ndamukong Suh and Linval Joseph) but continue to get gashed by opposing running backs (Aaron Jones and A J Dillon combined for over 35 DK PTS). Henry is always a reliable DFS running back but for this week let’s keep him out of our cash games and roll him in GPPs.

Eagles

With a record of 10-1, the Eagles appear destined for glory this season. Quarterback Jalen Hurts has been a lock week in and week out, but in this matchup, we may see receiver A J Brown in a get-right revenge game against his former team. Facing a skank secondary that is 28th in DVOA to receivers, Brown is destined for the end zone against a Titans’ organization that refused to pay him and get traded away for a first-round pick in 2022.

Cash: J. Hurts, A. Brown

GPP: D. Henry

Jets @ Vikings (-3) (O/U 45)

Jets

We may have seen the last of Zach Wilson this year after Mike White’s performance. I mentioned him in my breakdown last week that he would crush his salary (27.8 DK FPTS) and yet again he lines up in another great spot against Minnesota (28th in DVOA to QBs) in a dome. White is not the only Jet you may want to take this weekend. The running backs here are loaded with value (James Robinson, Ty Johnson, and Zonovan Knight) but are way too risky to decide on, so use any in a GPP. A much safer play would be pairing White with a share or two of his receivers. Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore, and a revenge game for tight end Tyler Conklin returning back to Minnesota make a sneaky stack pivoting off the late games on the slate.

Vikings

Believe it or not, the Jets have been pretty tough on defense as of late. They’ve only allowed three touchdown passes in their last 10 games, so Cousins may not be a QB in play this week. Justin Jefferson is matchup-proof, so feel free to keep him in cash games If you can afford him. The rest of the Vikes are priced way too high for me to take a shot on against this Jets’ defense, even Dalvin Cook may not pay off his hefty pricetag on a New York front that has not given up a rushing TD since Week 7.

Cash: J. Jefferson

GPP: M. White, G. Wilson, E. Moore, T. Conklin

Commanders @ Giants (+2.5) (O/U 40)

Commanders

If you’re looking for a cheap play at running back, look no further. The rookie Brian Robinson may be in line for an increased workload at a discount If Antonio Gibson sits this one out. The New York Giants have allowed 150 yards with five total touchdowns to opposing running backs in their last two games. Robinson is a lock for cash if this situation plays out for Sunday.

Giants

The window is beginning to close for the Giants to make the playoffs, so it’s now or never. But with news breaking about Saquan Barkley possibly getting a lighter workload, New York will need to rely more on the passing game in order to win at home. The Commanders have cleaned it up a bit on defense, only allowing two passing touchdowns in their last three games. Regardless, the Giants’ will need to pass to win, and their skeleton crew of receivers is way too cheap. Darius Slayton and Richie James are set to have a big day as long as they can get healthy.

Cash: B. Robinson (Gibson out)

GPP: D. Slayton, R. James (if they can roll out)

Broncos @ Ravens (-8.5) (O/U 39.5)

Broncos

Free Courtland Sutton! He’s put up double-digit fantasy points at receiver in his last three games and the only game in town for DFS in Denver. The Ravens are a force at stopping the run, so Lat Murray will be a no go for me this week, not that he has been a stud averaging three yards per carry. Denver has been the biggest disappointment in the NFL this year as Russell Wilson and the coaching staff have set the franchise back a decade. It’s Sutton for GPP, no one is safe for cash in Bronco Country.

Ravens

Well, Lamar has not panned out from what we expected for this season either. If it wasn’t for his rushing upside, he’d be right up there cooking with Russ. But Gus Edwards seems to be back to 100% and against the tough Denver defense I’d rather pay down for Gus to fall in the endzone than Jackson’s low pass volume and high price tag. Denver has also been a cheat code for opposing defenses, pay up if you can for the Ravens’ DST in this low total contest.

Cash: Ravens DST

GPP: C. Sutton, L. Jackson, G. Edwards

Browns @ Texans (+7) (O/U 47.5)

Browns

Here it is, the game we’ve all been waiting for. Will Watson go off on his former team or will he show signs of rust, time will tell. The one player who is money in the bank is Nick Chubb, playing behind one of the best O-lines in football. Add that nugget up with one of the worst run defenses in the league and you have the formula to pay up here at running back. The only thing that bothers me is if Watson will hog the spotlight in this game and look to throw or run one into the endzone himself at the goal line. One thing for sure is Texan quarterback Kyle Allen was a turnover machine last week with two picks and two fumbles leading to scores for Miami. If you have confidence in the Browns D, pay up for them.

Texans

Some big late news broke on Friday that Texan receiver Brandin Cooks will not play on Sunday, elevating Nico Collins to the number one passer option for Houston and a no-brainer on DraftKings ($4,200). However, don’t forget about the rookie Dameon Pierce. He’s underwhelmed for the last two games, but he has the sixth-highest snap-share among running backs facing the Browns’ 30th-ranked run defense. I’m fine with using both in cash games.

Cash: N. Collins, N. Chubb, D. Pierce, Browns DST

GPP: D. Watson

Jaguars @ Lions (-1) (O/U 51)

Jaguars

T Law is coming off a career-best performance last week posting 321 passing yards with three touchdowns against Baltimore. It may be a double-down week to take Lawrence for a second week straight as he’ll be indoors to face the Lions. In what may look to be a track meet in Detroit, Christian Kirk may benefit more in the receiving department if he lines up in the slot opposite Joe Harris, who’s spilled out 15 receptions for 196 yards in his last two games.

Lions

At home, the Lions are at their best and will look the case against a soft Jaguar defense that has allowed 54 points in their last two games. We’ll see more of the usual from Goff to Amon Ra, with a sprinkle of Jamaal Williams at the goal line. Fellow receivers other than ASRB are priced way down to $4K and lower, so a nice GPP stack might be found in this game using D J Chark and Kalif Raymond

Cash: T. Lawrence, C. Kirk, A. St. Brown

GPP: J. Goff, J. Williams, K. Raymond, D. Chark

Packers @ Bears (+3.5) (O/U 44.5)

Packers

Green Bay is on the outside looking into the playoffs for the season, so even in a great matchup for Aaron Rodgers, I would tread lightly. He’s pretty banged up with a thumb and now a rib injury, any shot taken during the game may force him to the sideline. So for me, it’s an Aaron Jones kind of day, especially at his DraftKings salary ($6,900). Even if Rodgers does get pulled, wideouts Christian Watson and Allen Lazard should still feast on the Bears’ bush league of defense if Jordan Love were to take over. Other than Jones, keep everybody else in tournaments.

Bears

Chicago has given their superstar athlete at quarterback the green light for Sunday, but how effective will he be? Justin Fields injured his non-throwing shoulder in Week 11, but it’s not his passing that he is known for. one bad hit after a scramble may also take him out of the game. His ceiling is through a roof but keep him in your tournament this weekend, who may see very low ownership on this slate.

Cash: A. Jones

GPP: A. Rodgers, J. Fields, A. Lazard, C. Watson

Steelers @ Falcons (-1) (O/U 42.5)

Steelers

The first quarterback taken in last year’s draft may have his best game this season on the road in Atlanta. Kenny Pickett can easily smash his salary four times its value playing indoors, using a little of his legs, and letting loose on the Falcon secondary that has been exploited all season. Pairing Pickett with Pickens and Friermuth makes a ton of sense here, but Diontae Johnson may be riskier because of his inability to build any chemistry with the rookie QB. The questionable tags have been all over the Steeler running backs, best to keep an eye on reports for tonight through tomorrow morning for a Najee Harris/Jalen Warren possible lone backfield.

Falcons

I just can’t put anybody in Atlanta in my lineups this week because of this Pittsburgh defense led by TJ Watt. Now that Kyle Pitts landed on IR, opposing defenses will continue to gravitate toward the rookie Drake London. I mean if I were to throw a dart here, it would be at Zaccheaus. Olamide ate off London’s plate last week while catching five of eight passes for 91 yards.

Cash: K. Pickett, G. Pickens, N. Harris/J. Warren (if one sits out)

GPP: P. Friermuth, O. Zaccheaus

Dolphins @ Niners (-4) (O/U 46.5)

Dolphins

Well, we all should know Miami’s blueprint by now in Week 13, if you’re just tuning in now it’s a three-headed monster with Tua, Tyreek, and Waddle. Besides Tyreek Hill, many Dolphins for this week may not be usable in DFS facing a tough San Fran defense on the road. So will it be a Jeff Wilson/Raheem Mostert revenge game? I wouldn’t bet on that either against the Niners’ front line. Ever hear of a guy by the name of Trent Sherfield? He’s basically on the field all the time alongside Tyreek and Waddle with over a 60% snap rate and could be worth a punt based on his price tag on DraftKings ($3,300). Thanks to Stix and the model for this gem, he may not be as sexy as the last Christian Watson call, but definitely makes sense against a Niner defense that will focus mainly on Waddle and Hill.

Niners

The Dolphins have also been decent at stopping the run (10th in DVOA) which could force Garoppolo to throw it more than he likes to. Miami’s cornerbacks and safeties have allowed over 60 receptions with five touchdowns over their last three games. Deebo may not be able to go Sunday so pay attention to injury reports, Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle will be a lock if he is ruled out.

Cash: B. Aiyuk, G. Kittle (if Deebo is ruled out even better), T. Hill

GPP: T. Sherfield, J Garoppolo

Seahawks @ Rams (+7) (O/U 41)

Seahawks

Seattle may get the same scenario game as Kansas City when they played LA…a wet noodle of an offense. Geno Smith and the Seahawks may not have any type of motivation to light up the scoreboard this weekend. We should see a lot of Kenneth Walker chewing up the clock and that Seattle defense causing some turnovers and three-and-outs.

Rams

The defending champs have waived the white flag to the NFL, pulling every big-name player and placing them on IR, most recently QB Matt Stafford. The Rams appear to want to get an idea of who else they have on their roster by giving them some playing time. Rookie running back Kyren Williams could be busy for the end of the regular season, and Seattle’s 153 rushing yards allowed per game has breakout written all over this game. Kyren is a sleeper and a smooth play as your RB2 in your GPP.

Cash: Seattle DST, K. Walker

GPP: K. Williams

Chiefs @ Bengals (+1.5) (O/U 52.5)

Chiefs

Let’s get ready to rumble, the Main Event will be at 4:25 EST in Ohio, when Kansas City looks to even the score from last year’s loss to the Bengals. Mahomes and Kelce all day, in 11 games they’ve connected on 73 receptions with 12 touchdowns, and Mahomes has thrown for 29…eh not bad. A smart but chalky stack this weekend, we need to get a little different here. Pacheco had a solid game against LA last week, finding the endzone for a cool 15 DK points, and rushing for 70 yards. Currently, he leads the backfield in snap percentage (51%), which may lead to another trip to the endzone in Cinci.

Bengals

The Chiefs are 24th in DVOA to quarterbacks, so they will let you throw on them. Joe Burrow, Tee Higgins, and maybe Ja’Marr Chase ( if he can suit up) would be in a pass-funnel offense at home, locking them in our lineups with the highest game total of the slate. Even running backs Joe Mixon (if he clears protocols) and Samaje Perine can feast off this zone defense which allows plenty of the dink-and-dunk.

Cash: P. Mahomes, T. Kelce, J. Burrow, T. Higgins, J. Mixon/S. Perine

GPP: I. Pacheco, J. Chase (if he plays)

Chargers @ Raiders (-1) (O/U 50.5)

Chargers

Justin Herbert crushed Arizona last week, and he’ll do it again to Vegas. The Raiders are at the bottom of the barrel when it comes to defending receivers and sending pressure to the quarterback. No Mike Williams again maybe? No problem, Keenan Allen, Josh Palmer, and the almighty running back Austin Ekeler are enough firepower to take out a small army. All playable in DFS this weekend, I especially like Herbert for cash.

Raiders

As bad as Vegas’ defense is, we love them for fantasy, forcing the offense to play from behind. Derek Carr may have to throw it another 36 times this week in order to stay in the game. Davante Adams as their main pass catcher all season (71 REC/10 TD), will also be busy. But if running back Josh Jacobs has his way again in this game (229 RSH/74 REC/2 TDs), Herbert may not have as much time on the field. LA’s defense against the run is a dismal 29th in DVOA, so if Jacobs can convince the doctors he can play, he’s a lock once again.

Cash: J. Herbert, J. Jacobs (if he plays), D. Adams, A. Ekeler, K. Allen

GPP: D. Carr

Cash Core

J. Herbert,AJ Brown, Nico Collins, Josh Jacobs, T. Kelce

GPP Core

K. Pickett, N. Chubb, P. Friermuth, C. Kirk, T. Sherfield

Stacks

J. Herbert/K. Allen/J. Palmer/A. Ekeler, J. Burrow/J. Chase (if he plays)/T. Higgins, P. Mahomes/T. Kelce/I. Pacheco, T. Lawrence/C. Kirk/ Z. Jones, D. Carr/D. Adams/J. Jacobs(if he plays)

Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 13. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.

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