Only four teams and three games remain until we crown a champion for Super Bowl LVII. The Divisional Round this past weekend was colossal, where we witnessed the cream rise to the top of the NFL. This upcoming Sunday will be the last of the multi-game NFL DFS contests for the season, so let’s go out with a bang and destroy the competition.
The player pool is a “kiddie pool” at this point of the season for DFS. If we want to pass pay lines this weekend again, we need to be even less chalky and more creative, so put on your thinking caps boys and girls. As always stay locked on our Discord chat for advice and use the tools in our projection models. Alrighty then…Here we go with our final game-by-game breakdown of 2023! Let’s smash in the Conference Championships!
I do believe ice runs through his veins. Joe Burrow flew into Buffalo in a snowstorm amidst all the Damar Hamlin hype and ripped the Bills’ defense apart limb by limb. What offensive line injuries? The Bengals’ defense… suffocated Josh Allen and Buffalo to only ten points. Winning lineups should have plenty of orange and black in them this weekend.
Facing the 28th DVOA to opposing quarterbacks, Joe Burrow as the third-cheapest option for DFS is a lock across all formats. His price of $6,800 on DraftKings is disrespectful to a quarterback who’s been a top-five player all season. He continues to play with a chip on his shoulder in this heavily weaponized offense, so a stack of Bengals would be a safe bet this Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Joe Mixon have been the most prominent pieces for DFS in Cincinnati and will be heavily owned this weekend, so shake it up a bit. Hayden Hurst has emerged as the clear number three option for Burrow at tight end (5 REC/59YDS/1TD vs. BUF), for just $3,000 on DraftKings set it and forget it.
Now to be sneaky in this spot, pick up Samaje Perine for only $4,500 on DraftKings. Although he plays second fiddle to running back Joe Mixon, he sees well over 40 percent of the snap share. If Perine can find the endzone while in any of your lineups, he can pole vault you up the ladder in your tournament standings. In the Bengals’ regular season game this season with KC, Samaje ran for 106 yards and caught six passes, scoring 24.5 DK points back in Week 13.
Kansas City is back again in the Conference Championship game for their fifth straight season, but it cost them a hefty price of quarterback Patrick Mahomes hobbling off the field with a high ankle sprain. As far as we know he’ll be ready to go on Sunday, but how well Mahomes is going to perform remains to be seen. As the most expensive quarterback on the slate at $7,600 on DraftKings, consider one of the other three this weekend.
Now with Mahomes‘ injury, the Chiefs’ offense will also take a toll. His mobility will be less than 100%, forcing him to be less aggressive to scramble and extend plays. We’ll see plays where the ball is released quickly or handed off to Pacheco or Mckinnon. Kadarius Toney and Travis Kelce will also benefit from these play calls of quick outs and end-arounds. There has been some buzz about a return of CEH and Hardman, but in this game atmosphere, I can’t risk either in my lineups other than Milli-Makers. Speaking of big multi-entry tournaments, if backup quarterback Chad Henne would have to take over for Mahomes at some point in the game, you could be sitting on a lot of green come Sunday night.
San Fran is on a mission, and they keep getting better as they move deeper into the postseason. Iowa State sixth-round pick Brock Purdy has solidified himself into the Forty Niner offense and is one win away from Super Bowl LVII. To get there he’ll need some help from his Pro Bowl-caliber teammates, which could be less than 100 percent healthy.
We’ve all seen the footage, Purdy leans on his tight end George Kittle (5 TDs/21REC since Week 16). But to defeat an Eagles’ 2nd best ranked defense, San Fransisco will need a healthy running game. Christian McCaffrey has been rock solid since the trade from Carolina scoring 12 total touchdowns and leading the team in fantasy production. But he’s come up on the injury report with a calf injury, as well as backup running back Eli Mitchell (Groin).
Rest assured CMC and Mitchell will suit up, but to move the ball against Philly it will have to come through the middle of the field, away from cornerbacks Slay and Bradberry. That’s where Deebo and Kittle butter their biscuits, expect them to be very involved this Sunday.
If you’re playing Showdowns too, I’m all in on Robbie Gould and the Niner defense. I’m visualizing a low-scoring game with plenty of stops in the red zone by the Eagles, resulting in some field goal opportunities for Gould.
Jalen Hurts proved all the haters wrong, showing no signs of regression from a shoulder injury and crushing the Giants 28-0, icing the game in just two quarters in last week’s Divisional Round. He’ll lead the Eagles onto the field this Sunday and look to give the City of Brotherly Love its second Super Bowl visit in seven years It won’t be a walk in the park for Hurts this weekend though, as the number-one-ranked Forty Niner’s defense rolls into town. He should get there for fantasy, as usual, especially with his legs. San Fran will bring the pressure, forcing Hurts out of the pocket while padding his fantasy value.
If you’ve been following the Niners in the playoffs, their secondary has been roasted on the outside as of late. DK Metcalf and Cee Dee Lamb have each scored well over 30 DK Fantasy Points, which gives me the warm and fuzzies for AJ Brown and Devonta Smith this weekend. Heck, I’d even consider Quez Watkins for a potential bomb downfield for only $3,100 on DraftKings.San Fransisco’s 28th in DVOA to opposing receivers, so let’s attack the slate with Philly pass-catchers.
For Showdown purposes only, Jake Elliot is another kicker we want a piece of for tournaments. The Eagles will not hit pay dirt every drive and will have to settle for three against the top defense in the NFL.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Conference Championship Game by Game Breakdown. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!
And then there were eight. As we look back at the exciting Wild Card Round in the rearview mirror, Saturday afternoon is arguably the best weekend in football. The cream has finally risen to the top in the 2023 NFL Divisional Round where we will witness four games featuring the 93% Grade “A” meat of the league’s finest. The slates are getting smaller and smaller each week as we approach Super Bowl LVII, so we will need to be even sharper and more creative in our DFS builds. Being different will make you uncomfortable, separate you from the field and keep you above the pay lines in your GPPs and cash games.
Let’s get down to business. Remember to hop on our Discord chat for all your questions and advice on your lineup builds and always take the time to use our optimizers and projection models. The party starts now…NFL Divisional Round Breakdown here we go!
Just when you thought the Jaguars were toast last Saturday, it goes to show you the game is never over until the clock hits 0:00. The second half in Jacksonville was a true storybook ending for Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars, throwing four touchdowns after four interceptions. But can they continue on their hot streak against the number one-seeded Chiefs on the road? Absolutely.
Kansas City has been one of the most generous passing defenses league with a DVOA of 29th in the league. The writing is on the wall for Lawrence and his receiving core… put the ball in the air. Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram will all be busy running routes, likely playing from behind. The Chiefs’ zone formations do allow receptions to running backs too, giving up 19 in their last three games. Travis Etienne could also be effective in this matchup. We like the players but love their price tags. All are affordable as mid-range salaries on DraftKings, and valid contrarian punts would be Jamal Agnew ($3,000 on DK) and Marvin Jones Jr. ($3,600 on DK). Both are third and fourth in snap share and would be your dart throws on DraftKings and FanDuel.
It will be business as usual for Pat Mahomes at Arrowhead Stadium making his fifth consecutive visit to the postseason, and his opponent couldn’t be any juicier. The Jags land right below the Chiefs in passing DVOA at 27th, and Mahomes exploited this defense back in Week 10 throwing for 331 yards and four touchdowns. The key to his success in the regular season has been his ball distribution, allowing everyone a piece of the offense besides tight end Travis Kelce.
Jerick McKinnon, Kadarius Toney, and Justin Watson have all reaped the rewards of Mahomes, especially in the absence of Mecole Hardman’s pelvis injury. Of course, we still like Ju Ju and MVS and are viable this Saturday afternoon, but all will be in plenty of other people’s lineups. Rookie Skyy Moore and tight end Noah Gray will see the field too, with the injuries to Hardman and fellow tight end Jody Fortson. Lock them both in for punt plays at receiver and tight end positions, and elude a lot of the chalk.
Big Blue pulled off the upset in Minnesota last weekend in a very fantasy-friendly Vikings defense which allowed them 31 points and the victory. They’ll ride that momentum down I-95 into the heart of the NFC’s number-one seed and division rival Philadelphia Eagles. Can they pull off another upset? Only time will tell.
First-year head coach Brian Dabol has unlocked quarterback Daniel Jones, turning him into a QB-1 for the postseason, scoring well over 30 fantasy points (78 rushing yards) against the Vikings. Running back Saquon Barkley was also on his game scoring two touchdowns, and giving the Giants a one-two punch on the ground heading into Philly.
But the real story in New York has been walk-on receiver Isaiah Hodgins. Thrown to the waivers by the Bills, the Giants snagged him in Week 10, scoring five touchdowns in his last six games. Fellow receivers Darius Slayton and Ritchie James have also picked up the slack regarding all the injuries this season, and are priced way too cheap in this matchup that Vegas foreshadows the Giants trailing by a big margin. The Giants’ pass catchers will provide much-needed salary relief with a high ceiling for builds on Saturday-Sunday.
All eyes will be on quarterback Jalen Hurts when he leads the number one-seeded Philadelphia Eagles onto the field this coming Saturday night. Hopefully, we will get the regular season, MVP-caliber Hurts instead of the Week 18 one that put up just nine fantasy points against a third-string Giants’ defensive unit. Time will tell if he is back to 100% as the Eagles cannot afford to lose to a Giants team playing with house money and nothing to lose.
I love the controversy around Hurts‘ injury, it’s driving his stock down and giving him a huge edge in DFS as possibly the lowest owned, highest potential on the slates. He slaughtered the Giants’ in Week 14, throwing two touchdowns and rushing for one in only three-quarters of play.
As for the other options in Philly, they are all a go for me except for AJ Brown. We all saw Justin Jefferson disappear in Minnesota last weekend, thanks to a healthy cornerback Adoree‘ Jackson, and safety Xavier McKinney. Brown’s high salary may not pay off as did Jeffersons‘, so a pivot to Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and Quez Watkins would be pretty clever on Saturday for DFS. Tight end Goedert especially after the monster game TJ Hockenson had against the Giants’ linebackers last week.
Let’s not forget about Eagles running back Miles Sanders. He went for 144 yards rushing with two scores back in Week 14’s massacre. But his production is heavily reliant on Hurts‘ ability to run the football. I’ll have my share of Sanders at $5,700 on DraftKings in hope that Hurts is back to his true form as the top dual-threat quarterback. Also, check out Boston Scott “the Giant Killer” (5 TDs in six games) as a nice punt for running back at $4,300 on DraftKings.
The Bengals will be out for blood on the road in Buffalo, in a game that many believe would have been in Cincinnati if their regular season game played out with the Bills. Right from the gate in Week 17, Burrow marched down the field to hit Tyler Boyd in the end zone, with plenty more to come this Sunday in hopes of making a second straight trip to the AFC Championship game.
Even though they’ll be without three starting offensive linemen, Joe Burrow has the firepower and agility to carve up a Bills defense that allowed 31 points to a Miami third-string quarterback last week. So can we pair Burrow with his main man Ja’Marr Chase? We could but there may be better options.
Chase could be in line for a dose of TreDavious White and double coverage on Sunday, so pivoting to Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd could pay off dividends in DFS. The salary relief is also a bonus using Higgins, whose $5,800 price tag on Draftkings can be paid easily.
The AFC champs were sloppy and looked out of sorts in that Wild Card matchup with Miami, allowing third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson to move the football comfortably. But even on his worst day, the Bills’ Josh Allen continues to rack up fantasy points, but how? He runs…and he throws, rarely handing off the pigskin.
Then there’s his go-to receiver Stefon Diggs, who may see some Eli Apple when Gabe Davis is not on the field. Good luck covering Diggs after what we saw Demarcus Robinson do last weekend…deuces. Tight end Dawson Knox has also been money in the bank, catching a touchdown in five straight games. He could make it six as the Bengals have been a tight end turnstile, allowing eight touchdowns to the position this season.
One more Bills player to consider is James Cook. The rookie running back is priced at $4,800 on DraftKings and has scored two touchdowns in his last three games. He is the clear number-one option at his position and can hit paydirt again in this potential high-scoring game.
Well, they’ve finally jumped a hurdle in history, a road playoff win…congrats Cowboys fans. But the fun has just begun as they face the Niners in Santa Clara in the finale. I’m really looking forward to seeing Dak in action against the number-one-ranked defense. If he can do half of what he did against the Bucs (five total touchdowns, 305 yards passing) on Sunday it could lead to a victory.
Second Team Pro Bowler Cee Dee Lamb gets the best matchup on paper by lining up in the slot against corner Charvarius Ward. Lamb has dominated in the slot all year, and should absolutely crush against a Niner team that has been tough to run on all year.
I’ve been pretty quiet on DST options so far up until now, I think Diggs and Kearse finally get Purdy to fork over the ball more than once in this game. Dallas takes shots on defense, and as perfect as Purdy has been thus far, Micah Parsons is a problem. He lines up all over the field with one motive, unless Trent Williams saves the day, Brock may have to earn every yard this Sunday.
The unbeaten and practically undrafted Brock Purdy has been the savior of the Forty-Niners’ injury-ridden season, projecting them as a favorite to win it all. Yes, he did have over 37 DK fantasy points in almost two-quarters of football, can he repeat that? Nope, I can’t even see him get close. After watching Tom Brady throw the ball 66 times and barely put together one decent drive last weekend, I’m out.
Who I do like is McCaffrey, but you don’t need me to tell you that. His yards after the catch have set the bar for running backs in his career. And with all the pressure headed Purdy’s way via Parsons and company, McCaffrey will again feast over the middle with dump-offs and screen passes.
Deebo Samuel finally woke up in the playoffs, catching 9 balls for 133 yards and a score. He draws another nice matchup against the Dallas 27th DVOA to opposing receivers. Teammate Brandon Aiyuk also could’ve had a monster day if he held onto that pass that hit him in the numbers. Both are solid and severely underpriced on DraftKings ($5,900 and $5,000).
By the way, if you still believe in Purdy, then go with your gut. The guy is the lowest-priced quarterback with the highest ceiling, giving you the best ROI in DFS for the slate.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Divisional Round Game by Game Breakdown. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord where we will have our experts talking about plays across every sport and tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions. Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports and Gain access to our Projection Models. Good luck to everyone this weekend and let’s crush!
The road to Super Bowl LVII will officially be open this weekend as Wild Card Weekend kicks off on Saturday afternoon. Twelve teams will square off and put everything on the line in six games of gut-wrenching football. A few appear to be somewhat lopsided, but all will be full of entertainment, especially for DFS. Now let’s get down to the nitty-gritty and chew the fat on each team, game by game. Who to target? Where’s the value? All this and more will be right here so keep scrolling for our locks in DFS, and remember to check in on our Discord channel and use our Projection Model to help guide you into the pay lines. It’s go time…Let’s get it started for the playoffs! Wild Card Weekend Breakdown here we go!
Geno and the Seahawks will have their work cut out for them on the road, and it could get ugly. Seattle struggled to move the ball and put points on the scoreboard in both meetings with the Niners in the regular season. Only 20 total points with just two touchdowns against San Fransisco’s number one ranked defense in total yardage and points allowed in Weeks 2 and 15. But on the brighter side, one Seahawk has kept his fantasy value for the matchup, Tyler Lockett. He’s been the apple of Geno’s eye all year long and profited from opposing defenses bracketing DK Metcalf all season. In the two meetings, Lockett has scored over 13 and 22 DK fantasy points, forcing major ownership in his direction for only $6,000 on Draftkings.
Although Seattle depicts to be trailing a ton in this game, they will have to run the ball and keep the Niners honest. Stud rookie running back Kenneth Walker III has been a machine in his past three games, seeing a boatload of volume. He had 23, 26, and 29 rushing attempts, and scored well over double-digit fantasy points in those recent games, making him quite the contrarian play at $5,900 on DraftKings.
Winners of seven straight games, the Niners are well on their way to making it eight by hosting a Seahawks team limping into the playoffs as the seventh seed. Third-string rookie quarterback Brock Purdy has looked flawless leading San Fransisco’s electrifying offense. As far as DFS purposes, he will not be motivated to do much against such an inferior opponent. Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle have exploded onto the scene since Purdy took the reins, and should continue to rack up fantasy value in this matchup. Seattle’s DVOA of 30th to running backs and 32nd to tight ends will be set-it-and-forget-it for fantasy managers on Saturday.
One other Niner took to take a gander at is Deebo Samuel. His price tag has fallen to $5,700 on DraftKings and in my mind is a bargain. He’s been a receiver who’s fully capable of lighting it up, and this weekend may be a get-right game returning from a hamstring injury. Consider him off the radar of DFS ownership, separating yourself from the field in GPPs.
Justin Herbert will make his playoff debut on the road and look for his first win as a 2-point favorite in Jacksonville. His salary is a bargain at $6,600 on DraftKings in a high-volume passing offense that is anticipated to be a high-scoring event. But he will be without receiver Mike Williams, who suffered a back injury in Week 18. This incident will force Herbert to look for wideout Keenan Allen and running back Austin Ekeler, even more, this Saturday night. All three will be viable for DFS in this fantasy-friendly atmosphere, four when you count Josh Palmer (Williams’ injury replacement).
We do need to get different in these mini-game slates in order to cash, so take a peek at the Chargers’ tight ends to do so. Gerald Everett and Donald Parham Jr. will go unnoticeable in this game, giving you an edge against the field. The Jags rank 25th among opposing tight ends, a single trip to the endzone for either of the two would pay off their affordable salaries ($3,800 and $2,700 on DraftKings).
Duval County, Florida will host their first playoff game in five years, led by sophomore sensation quarterback Trevor Lawrence. I personally will be all over him as a steal at $5,700 on DraftKings in most of my Saturday lineups. Pairing T-Law with Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram would all be a legit way of building a nice stack, who are also all under $6K on DraftKings.
Running back Travis Etienne by far has the best matchup on paper for this Wild Card matchup though, as the Chargers have given up the second-most rushing yards for the 2022-23 season. At $6,000 on DraftKings, he’s a lock for production in a must-win battle at home.
Well, not much to anticipate for Miami but walking out with their pride and an “L” on Sunday. It’s highly unlikely third-string rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson will be able to lead this high powered offense on the road in Buffalo. It’s sad to say the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle can be compared to Lambos with flat tires with the current quarterback situation. So it’s a fade for me in any cash formats for Dolphins in my builds.
For tournaments, Jeff Wilson Jr. may be stepping into a larger role on Sunday. Fellow running back Raheem Mostert broke his thumb and is listed as questionable. Wilson would own the backfield and be heavily leaned on by rookie quarterback Skylar Thompson in Buffalo if Mostert does not suit up. Sign me up for only $5,400 on DraftKings.
The Bills are on cloud nine after the news of cornerback Damar Hamlin recovering from a heart attack at home and blowing the doors off the Patriots to close out the season 35-23. We’ve like quarterback Josh Allen and receiver Stefon Diggs all season, why stray away in this playoff cake walk? Their stats speak for themselves, so using them for DFS is a no-brainer against Miami. Tight end Dawson Knox has also shined, scoring a touchdown in his last four games. He’s viable against a Dolphin’s defense that is 29th in DVOA to opposing tight ends.
As I mentioned about Miami possibly struggling to move the football on Sunday, the Bills DST is another lock for the slate. Potential turnovers and three-and-outs all may be in the forecast for the Fins on Sunday.
Big Blue enters the playoff picture as road dogs, but an argument can be made to see the Giants pull off a win on the road this weekend. Quarterback Daniel Jones has been severely under rated this year, having only turned the ball over 8 times compared to last season’s 17 turnovers. He’s a tremendous value at quarterback for DFS ($5,600 on DraftKings), in a matchup only a few weeks ago scoring close to 25 DK points in Minnesota.
If we love Danny Dimes, we’re feeling his receivers too this weekend. Darius Slayton, Richie James, and Isaiah Hodgins all hold water in a receiving core who punched the Vikings’ secondary in the mouth in Week 16 combining for 52 DK points.
Last but not least, we will never forget the engine of the Giants’ offense, Saquon Barkley. He keeps the men in blue running on all cylinders, rushing for over 1,300 yards and finding the endzone on 10 visits in 2022-23. His salary will stun your cap, but it’s money well spent on a running back who refuses to leave the field averaging over 18 fantasy points per game.
Minnesota will be put to the test again in the playoffs for consecutive season after season, can they advance? Kirk Cousins has had more ups than downs so far for the year, throwing well over 4,500 yards and 29 touchdowns. Like Jones, Cousins too had a solid game in Week 16 against the Giants with 24 DK points, throwing for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Justin Jefferson and tight end TJ Hockenson exploded for a combined 74 DK points in that Week 16 home victory. Expect heavy ownership of the duo, and rightfully so. If you’re looking to get uncomfortable and different in this game, check out Irv Smith. He started the season as the Vikings tight end one, but quickly was forgotten after an injury and the acquisition of Hockenson. He made his return in Week 18 and saw an equal snap share of Hockenson of 48%. I’m in on Smith for $2,500 on DraftKings with very low ownership in my GPPs.
Baltimore will be in the same boat as Miami this weekend for the playoffs, without a solid quarterback. Lamar is out, Huntley is questionable, leaving Anthony Brown as their only healthy signal caller. What makes the Ravens’ offense even worse is their lack of offensive firepower. When you have Demarcus Robinson on the top of your receivers’ depth chart, you know you have issues moving the football. Mark Andrews is the only true weapon for Baltimore, but that all depends on how his quarterback performs.
The Ravens are a run-first team, but will most likely see a ton of stacked boxes in Cincinnati, but J.K. Dobbins should be considered a roster spot for DFS. He’s had the most rushing yards in the league since Week 14 with 397 yards. In order to slow down the Bengals’ offense, Baltimore will need to run the rock, but by all means start that Bengals DST up and call it a night.
We could be in for an encore presentation of last week’s Bengals blow out. Joe Burrow was a surgeon at home against the Ravens’ secondary, throwing for 215 yards and one touchdown by halftime. His weapons are at full strength and clear from any injuries. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Joe Mixon will thrive on Sunday Night for the Bengals.
Now if we want to be different in Cincinnati, Tyler Boyd is your man. In three of his last four games he’s racked double-digit fantasy points, which will pay off his $4,000 salary on DraftKings easily. Boyd is the forgotten man in stripes as opposing defenses focus most of their attention on Chase and Higgns.
Dem Boyz fly into Tampa as 2.5 point favorites facing a crippled Buccaneers offensive line. It’s all on the line in Dallas, as coaches and players’ jobs are at risk if they lose this one. Dak will attack a banged up Buccaneers secondary with Pro Bowl caliber receiver Cee Dee Lamb, who will feast. Dalton Schultz will also crush, as Tampa’s 27th DVOA to opposing tight ends will be exposed by the Cowboys on Monday Night.
If the Cowboys want to win this tough game on the road, it has to be done on the ground and with their defense. Tony Pollard has been electrifying with the football, but the matchup is not ideal (6th in DVOA). Pollard should see lower ownership and could break the slate if he goes on one of his explosions, making him a stud in GPPs.
Tom Brady is at home stewing over Vegas placing his team as 2.5 point underdogs at home. The seven-time Super Bowl winner thrives for these moments, and is impossible to fade in these game scenarios. Since the Bucs’ running game has been nonexistent and has only reached 100 yards once in their last five games, Brady will be throwing a ton. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and even running back Leonard Fournette could be in line for plenty of check-down passes from the GOAT.
Brady also loves his tight ends, and the rookie Cade Otton has certainly warmed up to him this season. In Showdown Slates, he’s a dirt cheap $1,800 on DraftKings, so flex him in as one of Brady’s favorite targets.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for the Wild Card Weekend. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
It’s finally here! The end of the NFL regular season and the wildest slate for DFS has arrived in Week 18! 13 games full of tanking, resting starters, and crybabies looking to start the off-season early. There’s always money to be made, but we need to be more creative and dig deeper to find the players on the field with a reason to perform this weekend. Besides advancing into the playoffs, players will be auditioning, proving their worth, and most importantly looking to cash in on incentives. So let’s get right to it and have some fun…Week 18 Breakdown here we go! Remember to stay locked in on our Discord for any questions or advice about your lineup builds. It’s been a pleasure to be here as a writer at WinDailySports and to share my perspective with the community for this season…thank you, everyone!
Minnesota head coach Kevin O’Connell mentioned this week he will be pulling some starters in the finale, as the Vikings are happy being the third seed. We’ve loved Jefferson and company all season, but not here in Week 18 at their hefty salaries. Dalvin Cook, TJ Hockenson, Kirk Cousins, and Adam Thielen should also be put aside. But I did see former starting tight end Irv Smith becoming activated off IR, and his min price of $2,500 on DraftKings is a drop in a bucket that could hold some weight in a GPP.
How do you say “tank” in Chicago? Nate Peterman. The Bears have decided to shelve Justin Fields until next season and roll with their backup. Chicago may run the ball a ton, as usual. But the water is way too murky for me in Chicago to decide on who will get the rock. The safest play would be to run from all Bears until next season.
Cleveland’s last game of the season will be Sunday for sure, but before they say goodbye in 2023, we may see an encore of Nick Chubb. The Browns’ fifth-year back may be force-fed touches on Sunday to try and land the NFL rushing title. This idea may get crushed if Josh Jacobs goes berserk against Kansas City, which could have Chubb behind well over 300 rushing yards. Check the Raiders’ box scores and then decide.
Pittsburgh is still alive and any Mike Tomlin team with a chance to get into the postseason will give it their all. The Browns are still one of the worst at stopping the rush (25th in DVOA), so Najee Harris should have a decent game (15 rush attempts/game). The Steelers’ receiving core is also in play too. Pickens, Freiermuth, and Diontae Johnson are all $5K and below on DraftKings and worth a dart throw in a fight for a playoff spot against a Browns’ defense mailing it in for 2023.
The Ravens are hanging on by a thread without a quarterback heading into the postseason. Lamar Jackson will miss his fifth straight game and backup Tyler Huntley is battling a shoulder and wrist injury. We can’t invest in this offense on the road against one of the most dominant forces in the AFC, especially without a quarterback.
Cincinnati came out with guns blazing on Monday night against Buffalo before the stoppage due to the Hamlin injury. They’ll keep their foot on the gas as they look to lock up the AFC North and the number three seed. Burrow is safe in this low-scoring divisional game, as well as the Bengals DST. Baltimore will keep the score down, which would leave some mouths unfed in the Bengals’ receiving core. Consider not risking the high salaries of Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins and aim for the likes of Tyler Boyd, Hayden Hurst (who needs 100 yards and 2 receptions for a $250K bonus), and Joe Mixon.
The Pats will need a win to keep their seventh seed alive, but it won’t be an easy task in Buffalo. The stadium will be rocking on Sunday and full of emotion, so picking any pieces of this offense will be pretty risky. The Bills have owned New England over the past few seasons, winning four of their last five meetings since 2020. The Bills DST will be a lock against the lackluster Patriots’ offense.
With Damar Hamlin in recovery from his tragic injury on Monday night, The Bills will be ramped up and ready to go full throttle against a Patriots team they have owned since 2020. Josh Allen is a lock for cash games and GPPs across this very sketchy Week 18 slate, as the Bills will look to seal the number two seed. As far as the rest of the offense, Diggs has always been the de facto for Buffalo. But for Week 18, Isaiah Mckenzie is 46 receiving yards away from $100K. He’s already earned $150K for reaching 250 and 350 receiving yards on the year, so maybe place him in a lineup for a bargain at $3,500 on DraftKings.
A meaningless game for Tampa, since they can’t improve from the fourth seed. We may see starters for a series or two but none worthy for DFS this weekend. Backup receivers Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller could see significant usage against an Atlanta 26th-ranked secondary. Third-year running back Ke’Shawn Vaughn should also see a bump in snaps and is also worth a thought for DFS.
There are only two guys worth rostering from this young and upcoming Atlanta team, Drake London and Tyler Allgeier. The rookies have had stellar seasons and seen a majority of the snap share going into 2023. London has seen an incredible 28 targets and Allgeier has scored over 15 DK FPTS. over the past three games.
New York will be in Miami to play spoiler to the Dolphins’ playoff run, using the tough and tenacious defense they have executed all season. They’re fairly priced on DraftKings and FanDuel, and facing third-string Miami quarterback Skylar Thompson could lead to double-digit fantasy points in your DST slot.
It’s safe to say we want no part of this Miami offense until next season. Way too risky to even think of paying up for Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle with Skylar Thompson under center, especially against a stingy number two-ranked Jets’ defense.
Nope, we can’t go here for fantasy. Not with head coach Lovie Smith salivating at the first pick in the draft. The Texans do play hard for their head coach, so they will put some points on the board. Just way too unpredictable who will see the ball for Houston.
Sam Ehlinger is back to close out the season which sets the stage for a very run-heavy offense in Indianapolis. Zack Moss is the guy, who owns 60% of the snaps for the Colts. Moss will feast against a Texan worst-ranked run defense at home, hoping to earn a roster spot for next season.
I mentioned DJ Moore was a stud last week, and he was by catching 6 for 117 yards and a score. Now with running back D’Onta Foreman landing on the injury report with a knee late in the week, Chuba Hubbard may be heavily involved in the Panthers’ finale.
Saints’ wideout Rasid Shaheed has had his moments this season and even posted 13 DK points last week in the Phiily upset win. He saw the field and led all receivers with 68% of the snaps last week, making him a no-brainer at $4,200 on DraftKings for Week 18.
The G-Men have locked up the sixth seed and have no plans of keeping starters out on the field for too long. We are not interested in any Big Blue players facing an Eagles defense hungry to lock up the number one seed.
Jalen Hurts is a man on a mission to lock up a win and a first-round bye to claim the one seed in the NFC. Start your Eagles this weekend in this dicey Week 18, they’re putting it all on the table at home and the only thing standing in their way will be a lame-duck Giants defense loaded with bench warmers.
Dallas to stay on top of the NFC also needs a win, and could move past Philadelphia if somehow the Eagles lose to the Giants. Dak Prescott and Cee Dee Lamb will light up the Capitol on Sunday against a Washington secondary that has been embarrassed all year and led by St–Juste and Fuller (21 passing touchdowns allowed). Zeke and Tony Pollard also will sink their teeth into some red zone opportunities, as well as tight end Dalton Schultz.
We’ve seen the Cowboys play down to their competition on defense twice this season, and could allow rookie quarterback Sam Howell a decent game as well. Howell had a decent preseason, running in two touchdowns but I know, this is the real deal. Having McLaurin, Dotson, and Samuel at his disposal, Howell could break the slate if the Cowboy’s defense downplays their opponent again. The Commanders have also decided to shut down running backs Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson for the year. Jonathon Williams steps in as the number one back for Washington, and is a lock for cash for only $4,300 on DraftKings.
LA will end their Super Bowl hangover season looking to play spoiler and deny division rival Seattle a playoff berth. Running back Cam Akers has owned the backfield in the second half of the year and should be in for a massive game against a Seahawks’ 30th in DVOA to running backs. Seattle’s tight end DVOA is dead last at 32nd, forcing heavy DFS consideration to Tyler Higbee this weekend.
It’s do or die in Seattle, and the writing is on the wall for Geno Smith and the Seahawks. It will be all hands on deck for head coach Pete Carrol, forcing all Seahawks to be worthy of DFS this Sunday including receivers DK Metcalf, and Tyler Lockett, and running back Kenneth Walker III.
James Connor will not be suiting up for the grand finale of the 2022-23 season, leaving rookie running back Keaontay Ingram a giant workload. San Fransisco is ranked number one against the run, but with Arizona rolling out David Blough in the closer, Ingram could be heavily leaned on as well as evaluated for next season. Blough may also lean on tight end Trey McBride again, the rookie had a career-best seven catches for 78 yards and a score last weekend.
To keep themselves ahead in the playoff picture, San Fran will and should easily beat up on the dumpster fire of a Cardinals’ defense and put a cherry on top of their superb season. Running back CMC may see a day off since Elijah Mitchell has been activated off IR, and his salary on DraftKings at $4,000 is very juicy if he does see the field. Lock and pay up for that Niners DST across from Dave Blough, they’ll be out for blood after spilling all those points to Vegas last week.
LA has secured a playoff spot as a Wild Card in the AFC and may rest starters after a series or two. Wideout DeAndre Carter should see some burn in Week 18 and will earn an extra $200K if he catches two balls for 55 yards. A safe flier for a mere $4,100 on DraftKings, Carter is worth a dart throw.
Broncos country…Let’s hit the slopes. The tight end has been heavily involved in this offense all year, and we saw the resurgence of Albert O. last week. Three catches for 45 yards and a touchdown crushed it and can be repeated with Greg Dulcich done for the season. Albert O. for $2,900 on DraftKings is a steal at tight end for the slate.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 18. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
Happy New Year WinDaily Fam! Let’s ring in 2023 with some cold hard cash into your DFS accounts by hammering the competition with our breakdown of this Week 17 NFL Main Slate. There were a few dimes in Week 16’s write-up, mainly attacking that Giants/Vikings matchup that led to fantasy galore. Let’s keep the heater going in this brutally cold winter this season, and pick apart this 13-game slate. Remember to stay locked into our Discord community for updates, lineup build advice, or any start/sit questions for your season-long championship games.
Wow, did Nick Foles fade away after winning Super Bowl LII four years ago? I think it’s safe to say to run from picking up any part of the Colts’ offense after what was displayed on MNF. Three picks with three total points on the scoreboard will scare anyone off using Indianapolis in DFS. And the fact that Foles will be starting again in Week 17 makes me crave the Giants‘ DST even more in my builds. For
As bad as the Colts offense has been, their defense does keep some points off the scoreboard. New York does need the win to stay alive in the Wild Card race and may depend on Saquon Barkley yet again. His $8,000 price is not sexy at all on DraftKings but should get the job done against a Colts’ team that has forked over 7 touchdowns in the past three games to opposing running backs.
Last week’s weather in Cleveland destroyed fantasy value all over the Saints’ offense besides Taysom Hill and Alvin Kamara finding the endzone. On the road in Philadelphia will be no picnic either as the Eagles’ defense has amassed 19 sacks with three turnovers in their last three contests. An Andy Dalton-led Saints offense will be too risky for me to suggest anybody for DFS.
Looks like we will be getting a second dose of Minshew this week as starting quarterback Jalen Hurts still hasn’t practiced all week. If you used him last week in DFS, there was no problem with Gardner’s 28 DK fantasy points. The entire Eagles’ offense feasted except for running back Miles Sanders, who did suffer a minor injury in Dallas. Run the tables again in a game Philly needs to win and keep a grip on the one seed.
I will have 0 shares of Denver in DFS. The Christmas Day implosion of a skanky Rams team churning 51 points on them led to the firing of head coach Nate Hackett. With 25 other teams to pick from in this slate, I see no need to get cute by taking any Broncos this Sunday unless I was going to be creative in a tournament using Jerry Jeudy. Kansas City’s 29th DVOA to receivers allowed Jeudy to be WR1 for Week 14 with 33 fantasy points and catch three touchdowns.
Kansas City will keep its hand on the throttle and look to take over the first seed in the AFC. start your Chiefs in this matchup where we saw the Rams’ practice squad put a shellacking on this Broncos’ defense on Christmas Day. Just play them with caution this weekend, if Mahomes and the kingdom do grab a big lead early, it may lead to starters sitting in the second half. The only sure thing may be the Chiefs‘ DST as the cheat code against Russell Wilson’s bad cooking.
Head Coach Doug Pederson went on the record stating “We’ll play to win” against a meaningless game in Houston. I’ve seen him play this card before in Philadelphia back in 2020, pulling Hurts in the fourth quarter and dumping to the Commanders in a similar situation. Lawrence and the Jaguars are all in line to smash this weekend against the 2-13-1 Texans, but for three quarters possibly? If you feel otherwise, go for it and start’em. Me, I’ll wait until Week 18 when the Jacksonville season is on the line against Tennessee in a win-or-go-home situation.
Houston for only winning two games this season, they’ve played each game with a lot of heart for Head Coach Lovie Smith. One thing is for sure there is so much value these days in a Texan uniform. Wide receiver Brandin Cooks is the only gig in town, and for $4,800 on DraftKings, double-digit fantasy points are easily attainable against the Jaguars’ 29th DVOA against the pass.
Carolina has had one dude all year since CMC left town that’s been a rock, and his name is DJ Moore. He’s had six touchdowns on the year and one in his last two games. The road to the NFC South for the Panthers is through Moore…period.
Big game for Brady and the Bucs this weekend if they want to make the playoffs, beat the Panthers, and lock up the division. Jared Goff had a field day last weekend throwing for over 355 yards and three touchdowns, a stat line that can be duplicated easily by the GOAT. And now that corner Jaycee Horn has been ruled out, Tampa’s receivers all get an upgrade. Especially the underperforming, Mike Evans who will see very low ownership this week.
Chicago gets into the spotlight again in DFS in their second meeting of the year with the Lions. Justin Fields set records and put up one of his two 40 fantasy point performances the last time he faced Detroit, so he’ll be heavily owned. If you’re looking to get in deeper on the Bears in this potential shoot-out, Cole Kmet will be Fields‘ first option to throw to when he’s not scrambling off for 70 yards.
Welcome to the chalk of Week 17 and the Lions’ offense. The pricing on DraftKings for Jared Goff has been ludicrous, making him likely the highest-owned quarterback for the slate. It will be an all-you-can-eat buffet for the Lions’ offense, as Chicago is second worst in points allowed this season. Of course, Amon Ra makes the cut with DJ Chark, but to be different in tournaments a running back or two would be a slick move to separate you from the field.
No Tua, no problem….Teddy Football is back under center. I’m not against using Tyreek or Waddle this week, just keep them out of your cash games. We have not seen a big enough sample with Bridgewater yet, but we do know the Pats have a laundry list of injuries at secondary (Marcus, Jonathon, and Jack Jones). Hill and Waddle may be in store for another track meet in New England if Bridgewater can get them the ball.
We’ve been riding the Rhamondre Stevenson train for running back for a decent chunk of the season, but it may all come to an end this week. Teammate Damion Harris will finally suit up again after suffering a bruised thigh in Week 12, which may lead to a split backfield again. But on the bright side, the timeshare at tight end will get the week off. Hunter Henry will see the lion’s share of snaps and targets because of a concussed Jonnu Smith. If Henry can shake his leg injury, he’s a steal at tight end on DraftKings ($3,000) against a bottom-two DVOA to opposing tight ends.
If you’re wanting to pivot from the Detroit/Chicago chalk, look no further. Deshaun Watson under $6K on Draftkings is what we’ve all been waiting for. The rust is beginning to fall off, and the matchups are getting softer. The chemistry is also building with Amari Cooper, and pairing with Watson would keep you under 5% in your GPP’s. The Commanders continue to be exploited in their secondary (The St.-Juste and Fuller show) and will be in another foot race with the Cleveland receivers on Sunday.
The rookie Brian Robinson will get his time to shine as teammate Antonio Gibson will sit this game out with a foot injury. The matchup couldn’t be any better for Robinson, forcing him into your builds as a lock against the second-worst run defense in football (30th in DVOA). Some other news, Wentz will be back to start at quarterback. Johon Dotson and Curtis Samuel instantly made the connection with Carson back at the beginning of the season, so getting them back in your builds is another way to be different at receiver.
It’s been a total meltdown in the desert as Arizona struggles to find a quarterback to play out the rest of the season. David Blough will get the call for this week, and we are fading across the board for the Cardinals. Even though James Conner may still be of value, he’s too risky for cash games. Falcons DST holds weight in this spot for Week 17.
The Falcons’ head coach Arthur Smith has fully turned the keys over to his rookies for the rest of the season. Quarterback Desmond Ridder’s stats aren’t quite there yet, but running back Tyler Allgeier’s 200–plus yards rushing and London’s 20 targets, and 160-plus yards receiving have put a stamp on the Falcons’ offense. Both are safe for cash and tournaments.
They’ve been on a tear lately running on all cylinders with the rookie Brock Purdy, but going up against a Raiders team who’s packed it in for 2022, the Niners may not need to put up much of a fight. Although the Niners DST seems to be on the cheaper side for an odd reason this week ($2,900 on DraftKings), facing back-up Vegas quarterback Jarrett Stidham. Sign me up.
Who knows what we’ll see from head coach Josh McDaniels and the Raiders this Sunday, but whatever it is, it should involve a heavy workload for Josh Jacobs. Inexperienced quarterback Jarrett Stidham will lean heavily on the Raiders’ Pro Bowl running back, who may not be back next season. Keep Jacobs out of your cash games.
Mike White is back for New York, which is great news for the Jets’ pass catchers. Garrett Wilson will thrive once again in a Seattle Cover-One zone defense. Zonovan Knight also gets a bump up, rushing against a Seattle 31st in DVOA to running backs. Grab all three for your builds, just keep Mike White in GPP/SE formats.
Geno Smith will get a little taste of revenge against his former team that drafted him back in 2013. It may not be much to brag about though since the Jets’ defense has suffocated its opponents on offense all season. Besides the matchup, Seattle is burdened by injuries, mainly to receiver Tyler Lockett and running back Kenneth Walker. The Seahawks will be tough to roster, but if you’re feeling they can put up some sort of fight, receiver DK Metcalf is the last man standing for the offense and the only one to consider for tournaments.
Justin Jefferson needs no explanation for why he should be priced into all of your lineups, but running back Dalvin Cook deserves a little breakdown. The Packers continue to be torched by opposing running backs, allowing close to five yards per carry on the season and 144 yards per game. Cook being on the field with an 80 % snap share makes him a worthy roster for running back this week.
The touchdown passes have gone MIA this season for Rodgers, but we can’t overlook the Minnesota pass-funnel defense that’s surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL. Keep an eye on the Packers’ injury status for receiver Christian Watson, who may not play. Allen Lazard and Romeo Doubs will climb the depth chart if he sits, and should do well against the Vikings’ 32nd DVOA to receivers.
It’s officially Cam Akers season in LA. He’s locked into the driver’s seat at running back with a 75 % snap share for the past two weeks, scoring three touchdowns and rushing for over 180 yards. He’ll get another crack at a solid performance against a Chargers’ run defense that has hemorrhaged fantasy points to the position all season (26th in DVOA).
The Chargers have locked up their playoff berth, and a win or loss will not change anything in their position in the Wild Card Race. Rostering any of them in DFS would be very risky, as they may only see the field for half of the contest. For Herbert and company, we may not be able to use until the playoffs start.
Thanks for reading my NFL DFS Game by Game Breakdown for Week 17. You can reach me on Twitter @JoeDiCarlo78 or in our Discord tag me @JDiCarlo78 for any lineup build opinions or questions, always here to help! Be sure to sign up for an ALL-ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts and myself talking plays across every sport.
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