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NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Wild Card Weekend

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their first week of the new year and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS Wild Card Weekend slate. This week, we’ll just do one full article covering both cash and GPP. With only six games, we don’t have to get too crazy.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, our NFL DFS cheatsheet is updated throughout the weekend.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

  1. Lamar Jackson – AETY’s overall QB1 on this Saturday-Sunday slate and the ONLY QB I’ll play in the Sunday only slate. Tennessee’s defense is absolutely dreadful (mainly against the pass and yes, Baltimore struggles via the pass, but I’m all in Lamar).
  2. Josh Allen – We want a quarterbacks with rushing upside on this slate or we want a quarterback who is going to chuck it 38+ times. Josh Allen fits both of those molds. He’s an absolute elite play on any slate so there’s no reason to look elsewhere (ESPECIALLY ON THE SATURDAY SLATE).

    My only concern here is how Allen has never really performed well in a big game. He absolutely fell apart against a bad Houston defense in the playoffs last year. This Colts’ defense is much, much better than Houston was last year and they will capitalize on any mistakes Allen makes.

    Honorable Mention: Ben Roethlisberger

    Cash Game Player Pool: Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

  1. Alvin Kamara – Easily the top play on the Weekend’s slate for me. Assuming he’s healthy and good to go, lock him in on DraftKings. On FanDuel, I still love him, but he may warrant a fade there if you’d rather spend your money elsewhere.
  2. Derrick Henry – tough matchup against the 12th ranked run defense in terms of DVOA, but it’s Derrick Henry. He’s certainly not cheap, so if you’re using him, you’re going to need 100+ and a score on the ground because it’s impossible to get many other studs in your build with Henry in there.
  3. Nyheim Hines (DraftKings) – On a small slate we need to get different and Hines is likely to be one of those guys for me. He has a floor of 10+ points and I like this game’s ability to be up pace.

    My strategy here is using a lot of Hines on the Saturday only slate and mix him in a little bit on full slate. Jonathan Taylor would be the stone cold lock for me in cash games, so don’t think I forgot about him.
  4. Cam Akers – He’s going to be extremely popular at the low price points on both sites, but he’s one of two running backs on this slate who has 25-touch potential (Derrick Henry).
  5. James Conner – Just a low owned, value play for the Saturday-Sunday slate. Cleveland really struggles to cover pass catching running backs and we know that’s Conner’s main role. If Pittsburgh gives him the goal-line work, Conner can be a difference maker in NFL DFS this weekend.

    Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Ronald Jones, Chris Carson

    Cash Game Player Pool: Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, Nyheim Hines, James Conner

Wide Receivers (Cash and GPP)

  1. Stefon Diggs – The most targeted player in the NFL in a win or go home playoff game… Indianapolis’ pass defense is one of the better in the NFL but they will be without starting cornerback, Rock Ya-Sin. I’m sure we’ll see a lot of zone defense concepts on Saturday with potential bracket coverage on Diggs, but his volume is second to none.

    I don’t think we can fade him at all on the Saturday only slate, but if you’re looking to get off of Diggs on the Saturday-Sunday, there’s a lot more options available to you on that Sunday slate. I personally, don’t think I can fade Diggs.
  2. Michael Thomas – Simply way too cheap on both DraftKings and Fanduel and should have a very soft matchup on the inside of the Bears’ defense with Duke Shelley getting the start for an injured Buster Skrine. New Orleans is tied with Buffalo for the second highest implied team total on this slate, so I’m loving the idea of using Kamara and Thomas together.
  3. Chris Godwin – With Mike Evans banged up and an excellent pass rush for Washington, this should be a blast from the pass type of gamescript for Tom Brady. Instead of Julian Edelman being the recipient of 10+ targets, Chris Godwin should be in line for a massive workload in the shorter, inside routes against Jimmy Moreland.
  4. Tyler Lockett – I’ve been all over Lockett the past couple of weeks and it finally paid dividends last Sunday. I’m going right back to the well this weekend because I simply will not mess with Jaylen Ramsey.
  5. Marquise Brown – We preach speedy wideouts against the Titans’ secondary every single week. Hollywood has been finding his form recently and should have plenty of opportunities in the highest total game on the weekend’s slate. When Hollywood lines up with Malcolm Butler, it’s going to be showtime.
  6. Allen Robinson – Surprised Robinson is going to be so low in ownership this weekend in a game where the Bears will be chasing points all game long. I think Robinson is in for a big workload and finds a way to come up with 9-10 receptions against the weaker spot of a great, New Orleans defense.
  7. Juju Smith-Schuster – M.J. Stewart is arguably the worst cover corner on this slate. JuJu is cheap and has looked like a new player since the whole dancing on the logos issue caught steam.
  8. Zach Pascal / Michael Pittman – Cheap, un-owned exposure to the Colts-Bills game is something I’m extremely interested in. I likely will not make a Saturday-only lineup without one of these guys. Obviously, don’t use them both together, that’s just asking for trouble.

    On the full weekend slate, I’ll lower my exposure to them both significantly, but I still think this is a smash spot. Pascal opening the weekend with a 40.5 yard receiving prop against Bills’ nickel-corner, Taron Johnson is something I love to see. You just can’t find much better educated value at $3,700 on DraftKings.

    Honorable Mention: Diontae Johnson, Corey Davis, John Brown, Cooper Kupp (if Goff returns), Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight Ends (Cash and GPP)

  1. Mark Andrews – Tennessee is dead last in DVOA against the tight-end and no one on this slate has the ceiling of Andrews. Andrews is far and away my top tight-end target this weekend.
  2. Logan Thomas – Tight-end is a bit of a wasteland outside of Andrews and Thomas. Thomas is a stone cold lock for 8+ targets and I cannot ignore that type of volume.

    Honorable Mention: Eric Ebron, Jonnu Smith, Rob Gronkowski

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!

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NFL

NFL DFS: Week 17 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

I hope everyone had a happy holiday season and a wonderful start to their new year! Loved seeing all of the screenshots of wins last week. Always nice to come back to see everyone winning! Lets get back to it and are dive into a crazy 15-game Week 17 NFL DFS main slate.
The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 17, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • CHALK REPORT: Ty Montgomery, Derrick Henry, Jon Taylor, Alexander Mattison, Davante Adams, Justin Jefferson, and George Kittle project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST THREE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. 
  • Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Crunched for time this week so just listing off the players in my cash pool:

Top QB Targets

  1. Lamar Jackson – save for cash, but blowout potential in this one. Lamar will go balls to the wall to win this game, let’s just hope it stays close to keep him in all four quarters.
  2. Ryan Tannehill – Top play for me. Houston’s defense is awful, we just smashed with Brandon Allen last week, lol.
  3. Aaron Rodgers – No one as safe as Rodgers in hopes to close out his MVP season and a first round BYE.

Value QB Targets

4. Drew Lock – Any opportunity to pick on the Raiders’ defense

5. Kirk Cousins – Expecting a Vikings’ pass attack onslaught

Running Backs

  1. Derrick Henry
  2. Jonathan Taylor – Has the ability to put up Henry-like numbers today against a Jacksonville team that has no interest in winning a football game.
  3. Myles Gaskin – AETY Model likes his chances at garnering the third most touches on this slate in a must-win game for the Dolphins. Workload/Volume is incredibly important in NFL DFS cash game builds.
  4. Melvin Gordon – Don’t use him with Drew Lock in cash, but great price for a three-down back against arguably the worst run defense in the NFL (it’s them or Houston, lol).
  5. Wayne Gallman – Vander Esch is one of the key run-stoppers for Dallas and he again will miss this game. Expect the Giants to lean on Gallman for 16+ touches in a must-win game.
  6. Ty Montgomery – Disgusting, but there’s no running back healthy for New Orleans. He should be a lock for 3-5 catches, but don’t be surprised if Taysom Hill gets the goal-line work.
  7. Malcolm Brown – Cam Akers may suit up but my guess is that’s for an emergency backup role. Brown should get a ton of touches in a game the Rams must win to have playoff hopes.

    Honorable Mention: D’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, Rodney Smith, Ty Johnson

Wide Receivers

  1. Davante Adams
  2. Justin Jefferson
  3. Robert Woods – only game in town for the Rams if you’re not using Malcolm Brown
  4. AJ Brown – matchup against Vernon Hargreaves in the highest total game on the slate… yes, please.
  5. Tyler Lockett – San Francisco secondary is extremely banged up and this is the perfect buy-low week for Lockett who’s price dropped significantly on NFL DFS slates.
  6. Laviska Shenault – Too cheap for the WR1 in JAX in a game they’ll be chasing points from the get-go.
  7. Jerry Jeudy – AETY expects his target share to be ~30% for the day… at $4,200 on DraftKings sign me up.

    Value WRs
  8. Marquez Callaway – my preferred punt at the WR position.
  9. Josh Reynolds – meh
  10. Richie James

Tight Ends

  1. George Kittle
  2. Darren Waller
  3. Jonnu Smith
  4. Irv Smith
  5. Jordan Akins
  6. Noah Fant

*Defense is all over the board today with multiple teams sitting their starters. Most of my builds go to Jets or the Browns*

NFL DFS Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Tannehill
RB: Derrick Henry
RB: Ty Montgomery
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Tyler Lockett
WR: Richie James
TE: Jordan Akins
Flex: Jonathan Taylor
DST: New York Jets

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NFL

NFL DFS GPP: Stix Picks for Week 16

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

To quote the great Michael Rasile, “It’s a great day to be alive.” I hope everyone enjoyed their Holidays thus far and are ready to get back into action for the NFL DFS GPP Week 16 slate. For those who haven’t read it yet, please check out the Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown for your bankroll sustaining, cash game build advice.

In addition, I would strongly advise reading my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason, before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter.

For those looking to get different and make a splash in some GPPs, the time is now. We’ll usually be taking some heavy stances on lower-ownership players, but at times, there is certainly good “chalk” to eat. Let’s get into it.

Please note, everyone on our cheatsheet and the Cash Game Checkdown are also in play for GPPs. This is more to uncover some players people are not talking about… and they should be.

*Keep in mind, you DO NOT NEED to just build your GPP lineups around these players. Players from the Cash Game Checkdown are there because they have extremely high floors and high ceilings. They are key components you should probably build around no matter what type of contest you’re in*

**This article is not meant to tell you about how good of a spot Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Tyreek Hill, and Le’Veon Bell are in. They’re arguably in one of the best spots they’ve been in all year and I’d never tell you to fade that. If the Chiefs are the core of your GPP lineups, you’re probably in a great spot.**

NFL DFS GPP Quarterbacks

  1. DeShaun Watson – This game against Cincinnati is likely to be an ugly shootout with very little defense. The AETY Model loves this game’s ability to go well over the current total of 44 points and provide plenty of fantasy upside.

    To start, the Bengals’ defense is trash. Secondly, DeShaun Watson has one of the highest floors and ceilings in all of fantasy football. Lastly, you can run a Texans’ stack back with so so many value options such as: Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green (the AETY Model’s top value plays).

    At home, in the dome, let’s get some DeShaun Watson exposure.

    Possible Gamestack:
    Watson – David Johnson – Brandin Cooks – Gio Bernard – Tee Higgins
  2. Brandon Allen – It’s disgusting, but this is a prime matchup against a Houston defense that ranks 30th in overall DVOA and an even better price of $4,800 on DraftKings. We mentioned earlier how much AETY loves the value plays of Gio Bernard, Tee Higgins, and AJ Green… we kinda need to like Brandon Allen then as well.

    Better yet, the Texans defense is going to be the highest owned defense on this slate. Let’s use Brandon Allen and a value play or two on the Bengals side and shove that leverage down all of the chalk donkeys who play Houston’s defense. No more playing games, it’s Week 16.

    You can afford the world by doing this as well… go get your Chiefs’ studs or whatever game you really want exposure to.
  3. Russell Wilson – Remember the last time the Rams and Seahawks matched up in Week 10 and every fantasy relevant skill player was 15% or higher in ownership? Well, that matchup let a lot of people down and now with Mahomes and the Chiefs in such a good spot, it appears this game is going to go way under the radar.

    If you’re going to let me play a 1-5% owned Russell Wilson at home in a meaningful game, I’m all for it.
  4. Jared Goff – Do not forget about the value in Jared Goff on the other side of this Seahawks game. The Seahawks’ secondary has improved significantly, but they’re still bottom-10 in pass defense DVOA. With Cam Akers out, the AETY Model thinks Darrel Henderson is an easy fade and that the Rams drop back to pass over 40 times on Sunday. Do not expect McVay and company to come out flat again this week.

    You know who to play in your Seattle/Rams stacks.

    Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts

Running Backs

  1. Melvin Gordon – I’m all in on Melvin Gordon this week without Phillip Lindsay in the lineup. Revenge game narrative, a matchup with an awful Chargers’ defense, and overall, Melvin has been quite effective with the football of late. Let’s roll.
  2. Miles Sanders – Sanders and Chubb are the most talented running backs on this slate and they’re both significantly lower in ownership than guys like David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Sanders’ will be the feature of the Philadelphia offense on Sunday against a Dallas defense missing two of the best run stoppers. He’s going to run wild.
  3. Nick Chubb – With all of the Browns’ players out due to COVID-19, Chubb may literally get 30 touches despite being in a bit of a timeshare with Kareem Hunt. Hunt is probably the best wide receiver on this active Browns’ roster… maybe he’ll spend most of his day lined up outside and leave the majority of the backfield duties to Nick Chubb.
  4. Giovani Bernard – Just here for Bengals’ value pieces, lol. After getting 25 carries last week, I trust that Gio is Zac Taylor’s bellcow for the rest of this season. Houston’s defense is hot garbage so let’s take the over in this game and get some value pieces in our lineups. I certainly don’t like Bernard as much on FanDuel as I do on DraftKings for my NFL DFS GPP lineups.

    Honorable Mention: Kareem Hunt

    *I don’t need to discuss David Montgomery and Austin Ekeler. Remember: read the cash game article first… those guys are all elite plays this week and will be VERY popular.*

Wide Receivers

  1. Allen Robinson – 30% target share against the worst secondary in the NFL. The Bears are in a must-win game and will not mess around here against Jacksonville. Robinson is a lock for 8+ targets and offers a lot of red-zone equity.
  2. Cooper Kupp – this game is going to shootout a bit and I love Kupp’s splits against this Seattle defense. With no Cam Akers, the AETY Model says Kupp is in line for 10+ targets on Sunday. I’m definitely skeptical with that volume projection, but when in doubt, trust the numbers and trust this matchup against Seattle’s secondary.
  3. Tee Higgins – He is a wide receiver one going up against Vernon Hargreaves priced like a low-end WR2. No need to overthink this one.
  4. AJ Green – will also see plenty of Hargreaves and is just way too cheap on DraftKings for your NFL DFS GPP lineups.
  5. Sammy Watkins – I don’t ever love Watkins, but if Tyreek Hill is a little banged up, Watkins is a great source for cheap, low-owned exposure to the best offense in the NFL.

    Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Diontae Johnson, Calvin Ridley, Tyler Lockett, Amari Cooper, Brandin Cooks, Mike Williams

NFL DFS GPP Tight Ends

  1. Travis Kelce
  2. Mark Andrews – Only one on this slate with the ceiling of Travis Kelce.
  3. Zach Ertz – While everyone goes to Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz is seeing plenty of snaps and targets at a career-low price… I’ll take a shot on Ertz with this banged up Dallas defense.
  4. Hayden Hurst – Cheapest run back on the other side of your Kansas City stacks. Tight ends have had some big games against this Kansas City secondary and we don’t need much from Hurst at this price point.

    Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Logan Thomas, Dallas Goedert

Good luck to all this week in your NFL DFS GPP lineups!

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as multiple sports are now live!

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NFL

NFL DFS: Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks
written by StixPicks

Thanks a ton to Adam for filling in the past two weeks while I was out of town for my bachelor party then strictly prepping for the DraftKings World Championship! I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a wonderful holiday season thus far! Lets get back to it and are dive into a nice 10-game Week 16 NFL DFS slate. Also, good luck to everyone who made their season long Championships!!

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

  • High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
  • VALUE PLAYS
  • Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
  • Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 16, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

  • CHALK REPORT: David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, and Travis Kelce project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST ONE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. It’s surprisingly a decent spread on ownership this week.
  • Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
  • Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
  • AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
  • I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

  1. Patrick Mahomes ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – He’s the most pricey quarterback on the slate and likely the highest in ownership. We don’t care about either of those things this week. It’s Patrick Mahomes, at home, against a banged up Atlanta Falcons secondary who are giving up an expected minimum of 290 passing yards. Not to mention the Chiefs just lost their lead running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

    Mahomes and this passing attack are going to go nuts.
  2. Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – If you need some savings, ride the hot hand of Jalen Hurts against Dallas. Both of these teams have been playing and an impressive quick pace and should offer little-to-no defense. Hurts clearly is a more than just a Taysom Hill like quarterback as Pederson and company called over 40 pass plays last week. They trust this kid and so should you.
  3. Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need a value play, look no further than Trubisky against the 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA). Jacksonville is an absolute trash football team right now and clearly will be trying to lose this game to sure up the #1 overall draft pick.

    Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert

Running Backs

  1. David Montgomery ($7,700 DK / $7,800 FD) – Extremely valuable on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings, but likely to be the highest owned running back on both sites. Montgomery has been on fire lately and likely won’t be slowed down in this matchup against Jacksonville. I don’t think Montgomery is a must-play (on DraftKings), but he’s likely the top-dog running back on a small Week 16 NFL DFS slate.

    Personally, give me the guy below him.
  2. Miles Sanders ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – On a small slate with not a whole lot of running back talent, I will make sure to roster one of the most talented runners on the slate (toss up between Sanders and Nick Chubb). In this case, I’m going with Miles Sanders on both sites due to the significant discount. Doug Pederson is done getting cute and not unleashing Miles Sanders as he’s racked up over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks.

    In a game with no defense, give me all of the Miles Sanders I can get against the 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).
  3. Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – ALL THE WAY IN ON MELVIN GORDON.
    – Revenge game
    – No Philip Lindsay
    – The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL
    – The Meme Play of Week 16
https://twitter.com/StixPicks/status/1342876494297767942

4. Le’Veon Bell ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – With no CEH, Le’Veon Bell is an easy freesquare this week. Personally, I don’t think he’s a must play either, but this is a very affordable way to get exposure to the best offense on this slate (by a mile). If he’s going to be 40% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership, it won’t hurt to roster Bell. A double-digit, home-favorite running back is something we always invest in.

5. Gio Bernard ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a Houston defense that absolutely bleeds fantasy points to opposing running backs and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Yikes.

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

  1. Calvin Ridley ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – Too expensive for me, but it’s hard not to love the only game in town for the Atlanta Falcons, especially when they’ll be chasing points all game long.
  2. Allen Robinson ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – His pricing on FanDuel makes zero sense so absolutely lock him in over there and likely do the same on DraftKings. This is a must-win game for the Bears (I find it very hard to believe this game will even be close) but they’ll get Allen Robinson going early in this game and take advantage of the worst secondary in the NFL.
  3. Jarvis Landry ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Keep an eye on this game’s status with Cleveland having COVID-19 issues, but if it goes, Landry is in another elite spot on the inside of the Jets’ 29th ranked pass defense. Cleveland is in a must-win game and won’t hesitate to score at will to start this game.
  4. Robert Woods ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Cooper Kupp ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – We have picked on Seattle’s secondary all year long and I refuse to quit now after a few poor weeks from the Rams’ offense. McVay will be on a mission to right the ship this week and I’m expecting a big output for the Rams’ passing attack with Cam Akers out with an injury.
  5. Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) & AJ Green ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – No Tyler Boyd = load up on Tee Higgins and/or AJ Green. I strongly prefer the upside in Tee Higgins who will see a lot of Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, but you can certainly punt down to AJ Green as well if you don’t use Higgins. Houston’s defense as a whole is trash.
  6. Jamison Crowder ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Not in love with the play, but if this game stays on schedule for Sunday, Crowder’s price is way too low for the expected target share against a poor Cleveland secondary.

    Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is OUT), Cam Sims

Tight Ends

  1. Travis Kelce ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce and it’s a matchup against the Falcons (27th in DVOA against opposing tight ends), but most of all, it’s Travis Kelce.
  2. Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK ONLY) – He needs to be priced up over $6K. If you can’t afford Kelce, Mark Andrews is a clear number two option here at the tight end position.
  3. Logan Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Helluva price hike over the past few weeks but this dude is just an absolute target machine (regardless of who plays QB). Better yet, Terry McLaurin is likely out for this matchup. Thomas will be a busy man on Sunday.

    Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build for NFL DFS cash games. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

  1. Chicago Bears
  2. Cleveland Browns
  3. Washington Football Team
  4. Houston Texans
  5. Carolina Panthers
  6. Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Jamison Crowder
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Miles Sanders
DST: Denver Broncos

Good luck this week!

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