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NFL DFS Double Ups

NFL DFS Week 11 – Cash Game Checkdown

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after an absolute SMASH yet again in Week 10 for the Win Daily cash game crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

DAL/KC is obviously the game of the week and you can get plenty of exposure to it through all of the value that’s opened up this week.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($7,600 DK / $8,300 FD)

This game has fantasy-point heaven written all over it with a total of 56-points. We don’t need to talk much about Patrick Mahomes besides it was refreshing to finally see this offense back in business last week as Mahomes threw for over 400 yards and five touchdowns!

Dak Prescott ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

Similar to Mahomes, getting signal-caller exposure to this afternoon hammer is something that will likely be crucial for NFL DFS Cash Game lineups. No need to get into more detail other than the good news that Tyron Smith is back in action. This is going to be a fun game.

*Update: Tyron is OUT. Still love Dak, but leaning Mahomes or Burrow only for cash.

Joe Burrow ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD)

On the cheaper side, the AETY Model absolutely loves Joe Burrow and the Bengals’ offense as a whole in Week 11 as they come off of their bye week to visit the Las Vegas Raiders (22nd ranked pass defense DVOA). I said it on Twitter a couple weeks ago and I have to trust the system, especially when Zac Taylor is starting to play more up-tempo and pass-heavy like we’re used to seeing. This is an excellent spot for Burrow to put up a high-floor, cash game worthy outing.

Honorable Mention: Josh Allen

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

Dalvin Cook against the Packers’ is always a smash spot, as his career splits are absolutely disgusting. Green Bay is notorious for struggling against the run (24th in run defense DVOA) and despite the Vikings’ not being nearly as efficient on the ground as they have been in years’ past, Dalvin Cook is arguably the highest floor running back on this slate. My only concern is how slow the Packers’ play on offense, so I could see a path to an average Cook outing, but the floor is there for cash consideration.

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,700 DK / $8,500 FD)

If you’re not playing Dak Prescott in cash, find a way to get to Ezekiel Elliott. Kansas City’s run defense is still awful despite some improvements and more health on the defensive line over the past couple of weeks, but no one has more touchdown equity in the highest total game on the slate than Elliott. With Tyron Smith back, Elliott should be poised for another monster fantasy output.

A.J. Dillon ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)

With no Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon is likely to be 80% owned in NFL DFS cash game formats. Lock him in against the Vikings’ 28th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,000 FD)

Assuming Eli Mitchell is OUT, Jeff Wilson is the freesquare of the week. We ALWAYS love a Kyle Shanahan running back who won’t be splitting time (ah la, our early season love for Eli Mitchell) and will continue to do so this week… especially against the Jaguars 28th ranked defense in terms of overall DVOA. The 49ers have a 26-point implied team total that should give us significant touchdown equity with Jeff Wilson.

Mark Ingram ($5,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

With CEH back, Ingram is now the cheap value RB3 next to Jeff Wilson. Taking Darrel Williams out of this article.

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Nick Chubb, D’Onta Foreman

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)

He’s expensive and likely not necessary for your cash game lineup, but at 20-25% ownership projection for cash game contests, Tyreek Hill is the type of player than can carry you to the pay-line or bury you if you fade him and he has a ceiling game. Hill has had a consistent 27% target-share average over the last two months and will continue to get his as Andy Reid schemes Tyreek Hill open on every drive this Sunday afternoon.

A.J. Brown ($7,700 DK / $7,200 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel for A.J. Brown and his league-leading, 32% target-share since Week 6. Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King are in for a long, long day trying to keep up with the YAC man himself, A.J. Brown.

Tee Higgins ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

Higgins is likely to be the highest owned wide receiver on this slate and for good reason. This matchup against the Raiders’ secondary is primed up for a man-coverage beater like Tee Higgins. Eat the chalk/value here and move on. Ja’Maar Chase is also in an incredible spot, but I’ll take the savings with Higgins.

Michael Gallup ($4,200 DK / $5,400 FD)

If Higgins is not the highest-owned wide receiver in NFL DFS cash game lineups, I would bet that Michael Gallup is. If we want to get multiple avenues of DAL/KC exposure, Gallup is an excellent value freesquare now that Amari Cooper has been put on the COVID-19 injury reserve.

Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman, Ja’Maar Chase, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Keeping this one simple. With the significant value on this slate, I’m playing one of the two stud tight-ends.

Travis Kelce ($7,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

Darren Waller ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)

Honorable Mention: George Kittle, Dalton Schultz, Dan Arnold, John Bates (only if he is the only piece of “fat” in your build)

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles
Carolina Panthers
Seattle Seahawks
Washington Football Team

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 9 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after and absolute SMASH Week 8 for the Win Daily Crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 9, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk-Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (40%), Josh Allen (25%), Austin Ekeler (45%), Ezekiel Elliott (45%) Myles Gaskin (35%), Nick Chubb (25%), Amari Cooper (30%), Tee Higgins (40%), Jaylen Waddle (35%), Jarvis Landry (35%), Dan Arnold (25%), Darren Waller (20%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

Like last week, Allen is arguably the safest choice on the quarterback board despite another week of blowout potential traveling to Jacksonville to face the league’s worst defense… 32nd in overall DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Even with a sub-par passing game last week, Allen smashed his value projection with his ability to run the football and find the end-zone. He’s expensive and there are a lot of other good plays on this slate, but Allen is still the cream of the crop for safety in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Lamar Jackson is the top NFL DFS Cash Game play on the board this week in terms of overall value and the extremely high floor. The Vikings’ defense is a bit banged up and have really struggled against run-heavy teams of late. With a current total of 50-points, look for a lot of back and forth and plenty of red-zone opportunities for Jackson to light up the fantasy scoreboards.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

Elliott is the number one running back on the AETY Model this week in terms of overall value and when he’s priced at $7K, that is notable. I’m locking in Elliott to my cash game lineup and will be expecting a high-floor and potential two touchdown game against a Denver defense graded 27th in run defense DVOA in addition to trading away Von Miller.

Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

As long as Ekeler is healthy, the usage is through the roof. I don’t love this matchup as much as I do for the Chargers’ pass catchers, but Ekeler is arguably the leading wide receiver candidate of late, leading the team in targets over the past two games. With a game total at 50 points and projected for a very high pace (in terms of total snaps), Ekeler is in a fine spot to get to 2.5x value on that high salary.

Myles Gaskin ($5,800 DK / $6,100 FD)

As much as it pains me to write-up Gaskin in a cash article, here he is coming into the week with a projected ownership over 30% (likely closer to 50% in cash games). Gaskin is only averaging around 50% of the rush attempts in this Miami offense, but he’s certainly very active in the passing game. Having said that Gaskins’ receiving upside tends show in games where the Dolphins are trailing off the jump.

I do think Houston will keep this game close so that worries me a bit for Gaskin’s true upside, but at this ownership, it’s likely safer to eat the savings Gaskin offers and move on with your build. If Gaskin is not your cup of tea, let’s go right back to Eli Mitchell for the salary relief running back.

Devontae Booker ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD)

As long as Saquon Barkley is out, Devontae Booker’s price in comparison to total opportunity share and usage doesn’t add up. The Raiders/Giants game is projected to be very high in pace and a back-and-forth game with little to no defense leaving Booker as a borderline gamescript proof running back who is locked in for 18+ touches.

Honorable Mention: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD)

With Aaron Rodgers out this week, Davante Adams obviously took a slight hit on the AETY Model which leads into Tyreek Hill jumping up the model ranks in terms of leading the slate in expected target-share for Week 9. The pace in this game is also due to take a solid hit with no Rodgers, but Tyreek Hill is still the clear wide receiver one on this slate in terms of safety an upside.

Deebo Samuel ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Deebo has a target share of over 35% since Week 5, it’s utterly ridiculous and I don’t see that changing while Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. The top of the cash game wide receiver board is Tyreek Hill or Deebo Samuel. You cannot go wrong with either.

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

If I am not using Ekeler, Keenan Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup. The middle of this Philadelphia secondary is something I always want target in DFS and will continue to do so this week in an up-paced game and a great bounce-back spot for this Chargers’ passing attack. Avonte Maddox will have his hands full with Allen all day long on Sunday.

Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)

The price on DraftKings is laughable for Amari Cooper. With CeeDee Lamb banged up with a sprained ankle and the likely return of Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper is totally in play for cash games against a declining Denver secondary.

Tee Higgins ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

Simply way too cheap on DraftKings. Don’t look now but Higgins is quietly leading the Bengals in targets over the past three weeks and continues to have a prominent role in the red-zone. Ja’Maar Chase is still the top dog here and will be for the foreseeable future, but take the savings on Higgins and run.

Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)

With Odell Beckham Jr. in limbo, Jarvis Landry is the only game in town on this Cleveland receiving depth chart. He’s never going to be a sexy play, but the volume will be there for Landry with an affordable price-tag and a plus matchup against Mike Hilton.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Hunter Renfrow

NFL DFS Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

It’s still Travis Kelce and a plus matchup against a Green Bay defense ranked 25th against the tight-end. Look for the Chiefs to have a huge bounce-back game offensively here. With the low ownership, I will probably fade in cash and use as a priority in some GPP lineups.

Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings for a zone-killing, slot receiver with a tight-end positional tag. With DeVante Parker OUT, Gesicki’s target share is going to have a floor of 20%. The bookmakers love Gesicki even more than the AETY Model does this week with props sitting around five catches for 60 yards.

Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)

He’s not Travis Kelce, but the AETY Model projects his target share to be extremely similar than the top tight end in football. Granted, the Philadelphia offense is nowhere near as pass-happy as Kansas City, but Goedert should be priced up around $5,500 on DraftKings. Excellent value here with Goedert and a quality matchup against the Chargers who grade 29th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.

Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD)

Dallas is dead last against opposing tight-ends (32nd in DVOA). With Noah Fant out, take the freesquare in Albert “O” like we did last week with Dan Arnold.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints

Dallas Cowboys

New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (if Kyler is OUT)

Kansas City Chiefs

Cleveland Browns

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 8 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back to the Week 8 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (20%), Darrell Henderson Jr (40%), Kenneth Gainwell (25%), James Robinson (20%), Chris Godwin (25%), Brandin Cooks (20%), Cooper Kupp (20%), Calvin Ridley (20%), Dallas Goedert (30%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,100 DK / $8,800 FD)

On a slate with no Kyler Murray, Lamar Jackson, and Patrick Mahomes, the top-tier starts and ends with Josh Allen (honorable mention, Justin Herbert). The Buffalo Bills rank third on the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, 10th in passing offense efficiency, and first on the slate in implied team totals. Miami’s secondary has struggled this season and rank 26th in pass defense DVOA… there’s simply no safer play at the quarterback position than Josh Allen.

Jalen Hurts ($7,200 DK / $8,400 FD)

On DraftKings, if you need the savings, pivot down to the Week 8 NFL DFS chalk quarterback, Jalen Hurts. The Detroit defense is dreadful, grading 27th in overall defense DVOA and with no Miles Sanders, we should see a bit more rushing than we usually do from Jalen Hurts (he rushes a lot as is). It doesn’t matter what Hurts does with his arm, this dude always finds a way to ~25 fantasy points and that should continue this week in what should be a back and forth game with Detroit.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

D’Andre Swift ($7,100 DK / $7,900 FD)

Swift is an absolute stud and truthfully, I was a bit down on him heading into season-long drafts this summer. Boy, was I wrong. His usage is through the roof and trails T.J. Hockenson by one total target for the team lead in the passing game. The thing I like about Swift the most is the slight increase in usage on the ground. What started as a (give or take) 55/45 split in favor of Jamaal Williams has now turned in favor of D’Andre Swift. Detroit knows they have to give this kid the ball early and often if they want to win a football game. Look for Swift to do damage in this higher-total game against Philadelphia and their 29th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

Henderson was a bit of a let-down last week as the stone-chalk running back on the slate but, despite a negative early gamescript, he still had 18 total touches. Henderson is in a prime bounce-back spot here against Houston and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA) as a 15-point favorite.

Eli Mitchell ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Way too cheap for a lead running back in one of the more efficient running schemes in the NFL. I’ll likely be pressing the lock-button on Mitchell in all forms of NFL DFS in Week 8 as the 49ers visit a Bears team without Khalil Mack and possibly Akiem Hicks.

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Chubba Hubbard, Joe Mixon, Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,000 DK / $9,200 FD)

Personally, I don’t see my build allowing me to fit Cooper Kupp and that scares the hell out of me. What more do we need to see out of Kupp before we just lock him in each week? I’d like to believe he’ll come crashing down to earth, especially at the $9K price-point, but I totally understand if your first move is to lock-in Kupp and then start building.

Chris Godwin ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD)

With Antonio Brown doubtful for this game, let’s give another look at Chris Godwin who will be the main target in the most pass-happy offense in the NFL. This is a tougher matchup, but an expected 29% target share with no Brown in the lineup and a matchup on the inside against Chauncey Gardner-Johnson is a great spot to invest.

DeVonta Smith ($5,200 DK / $6,200 FD)

It’s clear that DeVonta Smith is by far the number one target in the Eagles’ passing attack. We’re getting a number one wideout at mid-tier, WR2 pricing in a cake matchup. This game is going to be a favorite for DFS players this weekend and that should start with DeVonta Smith or D’Andre Swift.

A.J. Brown ($6,900 DK / $7,600 FD)

Over the past three games, A.J. Brown has surpassed a 30% target share… volume is king in NFL DFS cash games and there’s not many on this slate who have the volume and big play ability A.J. Brown has on a weekly basis. Julio Jones is OUT and Derrick Henry is likely to still get his 20 touches, but the Colts grade first in run defense DVOA. Brown is in an excellent spot to continue his hot streak against a weak Indianapolis secondary.

Honorable Mention: DJ Moore, Stefon Diggs, ~~Calvin Ridley~~, Michael Pittman Jr., Tee Higgins

Tight Ends

The tight-end position is a bit scarce this weekend without Kelce, Andrews, and Darren Waller. I’ll make my list a bit different this week simply off of the price-points.

Pay Up: Kyle Pitts ($6,300 DK / $6,800 FD)

Values: Dallas Goedert ($4,700 DK / $5,900 FD) / T.J. Hockenson ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD) / Jared Cook ($3,400 DK ONLY)

Punt: Dan Arnold ($2,800 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Ricky Seals-Jones, Mike Gesicki

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

Cincinatti Bengals

Denver Broncos

Buffalo Bills

Cleveland Browns

Seattle Seahawks

Washington Football Team

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 7 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Another nice output for our Week 6 NFL DFS Cash Games – we absolutely love seeing all of the winning screenshots! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Jalen Hurts (30%), Patrick Mahomes (20%), Lamar Jackson (20%), Darrell Henderson (40%), D’Andre Swift (40%), Darrel Williams (35%), Leonard Fournette (25%), Calvin Ridley (40%), Sterling Shepard (35%), Cooper Kupp (25%), Davante Adams (25%), Dallas Goedert (30%), Ricky Seals-Jones (35%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,400 DK / $8,800 FD)

It’s Patrick Mahomes going up against the 27th ranked passing defense (in terms of DVOA) with a game total of 57 points (the highest on the slate… by far). The AETY Model has Mahomes as the clear QB1 on this slate, projecting for over 300 passing yards and again, just about three passing touchdowns. If Mahomes is anchoring your NFL DFS cash game lineup, you’re off to a great start, like last week.

Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $8,300 FD)

Not sure what else Hurts needs to do for DraftKings to raise his price up to the mid $7K range. Regardless of what he does through the air, he provides damn near 2x minimum return to his salary with his legs, especially in this matchup against a Raiders’ defense who gives up a significant amount of damage on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. When 40% of the NFL DFS Cash Game field is likely to use Hurts as their quarterback, I’m all for eating the chalk here and taking the discount if you cannot afford Patrick Mahomes.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray, Matt Stafford, Matt Ryan

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($9,200 DK / $11,000 FD)

What else is there to say about King Henry? No idea how to afford him on FanDuel, but I also have no idea on how you fade him here against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked run defense.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

Henderson grades out to be the highest owned running back on the slate as a ridiculous 16.5 point home-favorite against a Detroit Lions’ defense that grades out 26th in run defense DVOA. We always love running backs as a big home favorite and we should continue to attack those spots on a weekly basis here with Henderson. My only concern is the legit blowout factor and spelling a lot of second-half carries to Sony Michel.

Darrel Williams ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

Like most weeks, you’re going to want exposure to the Chiefs’ offense somewhere in your NFL DFS cash game lineup. Williams is by far the most affordable player on that offense with significant touchdown equity and a floor of 14+ points.

Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)

It’s gross, but apparently it’s Miles Sanders chalk week. I personally love this dude and his talent is apparent every single Sunday when he takes the field, but apparently Nick Sirianni doesn’t love him nearly as much as I do. Despite the multiple disappointing weeks, it’s hard to not jam in Sanders for the salary relief. This total is sitting around 48 points and the AETY Model doesn’t project it to be significantly up-paced like recent Eagles games. With that said, I think it’s relatively safe enough to project Sanders’ for his first 17+ touch game since Week 1. The price is likely never going to be this low again and should help us find a way to get to Derrick Henry.

Honorable Mention: Leonard Fournette, Josh Jacobs, Chubba Hubbard

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

I doubt you can afford both Henry and Adams, but I will make it a priority to have one of them in my NFL DFS Cash Game lineup. The AETY Model absolutely loves this Packers’ offense this week as they host one of the worst secondaries in the NFL with the Washington Football Team, grading out fourth in the Adjusted Expected Team Totals Tool.

Calvin Ridley ($6,600 DK / $7,300 FD)

Calvin Ridley is back and should plant himself right back into a 25% or higher target share in one of the faster-paced games on the slate in Miami. With Xavien Howard likely to miss this game, a Miami secondary that already grades in the bottom eight in pass defense DVOA should have their hands full with Ridley’s elite route running. There is a bit of risk with the layoff, a healthy Russell Gage, and the emergence of Kyle Pitts of late, but the cash game field doesn’t seem to care. The high ownership should not hinder your ability to cash in these types of contests.

AJ Brown ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD)

A clear WR1 going up against the Chiefs’ 31st ranked pass defense (in terms of DVOA) and a game total sitting at 57 points… If you’re not playing Henry in cash, play AJ Brown.

Sterling Shepard ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD)

Much more appealing on DraftKings with the full-point PPR scoring setup, but Shepard is one of the 4 wide receivers on this slate who the AETY Model anticipates a 30% target-share for. Carolina’s secondary is solid but susceptible to slot-receiver damage with A.J. Bouye struggling this season.

*UPDATE: Moving to Chris Godwin with no Antonio Brown. Likely a cash lock for me.

Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,800 FD)

Just way, way too cheap on both DFS websites. Devonta Smith is an elite WR1 going up against a banged up secondary who struggles when they’re healthy. Smith lines up all over the field and will have plenty of opportunities to burn this secondary with our without Casey Hayward in coverage.

Honorable Mention: Rashod Bateman (value chalk), Cooper Kupp, Tyreek Hill, Mecole Hardman, Jakobi Meyers, DeAndre Hopkins

Tight Ends

Naturally, if you can afford Travis Kelce or Darren Waller, you start and end your tight end roster position there. If not, here’s the two others on my radar for Week 7 NFL DFS Cash Game lineups.

Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,900 FD)

Goedert has cleared the COVID-19 protocol and will suit up as the other true passing catching tight end on this Eagles’ roster now that Zach Ertz was traded to Arizona. This is likely the brink of a much higher role in route-running for Dallas Goedert and the price is likely to never be this cheap as he should be in line for 14+ DraftKings points against Las Vegas and their secondary ranked 23rd against the tight end position.

Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,700 DK / $5,400 FD)

Much more appealing on DraftKings, but still playable on FanDuel with his high touchdown equity, is Mr. Week 6 Chalk, Ricky Seals-Jones. Green Bay grades 26th in pass defense DVOA against opposing tight ends and as mentioned in the Davante Adams write-up, Green Bay should score at will in this matchup. With that likely gamescript, RSJ should be heavily involved in the passing attack as their wide receiver core is rather banged up.

Honorable Mention: Mike Gesicki, Kyle Pitts, Cole Kmet

Defense / Special Teams

Carolina Panthers

Arizona Cardinals

Baltimore Ravens

New York Giants

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stoweby and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 4 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Another solid output for our Week 3 NFL DFS Cash Games (if you made the late pivot to Herbert over Fields as discussed on the livestream). The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 4, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Derrick Henry (45%), David Montgomery (40%), Cooper Kupp (30%), Amari Cooper (30%), Nick Westbrook (15%), Will Dissly (15%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Jalen Hurts ($6,900 DK / $7,900 FD)

Hurts is an easy plug and play cash game (and GPP) quarterback for me on this Week 4 slate. This game against Kansas City has a 55-point total and will offer DFS players plenty of back-and-forth action. The Chiefs come into this matchup carrying the nut-worst 32nd defensive DVOA grade and that will bode well for a dual-threat signal-caller in Jalen Hurts (who has a 3.4x AETY Model value grade). I’m starting my cash game build with Jalen Hurts, simple as that.

Honorable Mention: Dak Prescott, Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($8,800 DK / $10,200 FD) & Alvin Kamara ($8,400 DK / $9,000 FD)

We don’t need to discuss the two, top-dog running backs this week in great detail. Julio Jones and A.J. Brown are OUT for the Titans leaving Derrick Henry as the only reliable skill-position player for Tennessee. The dude has a 25-carry player prop, lol. He’s pricey as hell on FanDuel and you can tell yourself the Jets’ will line up with eight in the box and say “anyone but Henry can beat us”, but he’s still capable of breaking the slate at any moment.

On FanDuel, I’m likely to fade him and just roll with Kamara who’s also in an excellent spot (and at home) as a 7-point favorite against the Giants who rank 22nd in run defense DVOA. You’re going to want one of these guys in your cash game lineup.

David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $7,500 FD)

On DraftKings, I’m eating the Montgomery chalk in my cash game (and likely GPP) builds and calling it a day. The Bears’ offense was atrocious last week, that is no secret, but the play calling duties will revert back to Offensive Coordinator, Bill Lazor (who Montgomery excelled with at the end of 2020). On FanDuel, I’d likely pivot up to Nick Chubb or down to Ezekiel Elliott.

Trey Sermon ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

*Absolute cash game lock if Elijah Mitchell is out for this game. Please check back on Sunday for updates, but Mitchell was in a non-contact jersey at Friday’s practice and is doubtful to play. With a key focus on Derrick Henry or Alvin Kamara, we need the savings Sermon offers, especially in a matchup at home against Seattle who’s giving up over 150 rushing yards per game.

UPDATE: Mitchell is out, Sermon is a go.

Honorable Mention: Zack Moss (love on FanDuel, still solid on DK), Mike Davis, Chubba Hubbard

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,100 FD)

I’m sorry, but Cooper Kupp does not belong in the same price bracket as Davante Adams. Kupp is on absolute fire and I do not blame you whatsoever if you choose Kupp over Adams, but I’m going Adams here all day. The AETY Model projects Adams (with no MVS, he’s out with injury) for over 100 receiving yards and 8.5 receptions… That is the highest pre-match output for a wide receiver in the AETY Model’s 2021 season history.

Again, Cooper Kupp is 100% in play and he will be popular, but if the pricing is this close, I’m on Adams against a Steelers’ secondary that is getting torched but opposing #1 wide receivers.

Odell Beckham Jr. ($5,800 DK / $6,600 FD)

Way too cheap for a talented (and finally healthy), Odell Beckham Jr. going up against the AETY Model’s favorite matchup, Bashaud Breeland. Now that Beckham got a full game under his belt and still no Jarvis Landry, Odell Beckham should be in a spot for a 25-28% target share. In this matchup, that will easily get Beckham to 2.5x value for our NFL DFS Cash Game builds.

Calvin Ridley ($7,000 DK / $7,200 FD)

Incredibly affordable on FanDuel, Calvin Ridley in the dome against a Washington secondary that bleeds fantasy points to opposing wide receiver one(s). Ridley is coming off of an 11-target game and projects to own another 30% target share this week while teammate Russell Gage is out with injury. I like this game as a potential sneaky shoot-out and hopefully a breakout game with Calvin Ridley and rookie, Kyle Pitts.

On the other side, Terry McLaurin ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD) is a helluva option for your cash game lineup as he’s owned a 32% target share while Heinicke is under-center and Atlanta’s secondary is arguably worse than Washington’s.

Value Wide Receivers

Corey Davis ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)
Robert Woods ($5,300 DK / $6,200 FD)
Tim Patrick ($4,900 DK / $6,100 FD)
Jaylen Waddle ($4,900 DK / $5,400 FD)

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Nick Westbrook, Amari Cooper

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,100 DK / $8,200 FD)

Much more affordable on FanDuel, but if you can afford Travis Kelce, you play him! The Eagles’ cover-two against Kelce should lead to a field-day for a position that most people punt-and-pray. Starting your cash build with Kelce is the most +EV move in cash games.

Will Dissly ($2,600 DK / $4,400 FD)

If I’m not going to Kelce (I probably will), I’m simply punting all the way down to Will Dissly while Gerald Everett is on the COVID-19 injury reserve. It’s gross, but you’ll like the way your build looks around him. Please, just don’t play another punt player with Dissly.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Pitts, Logan Thomas, Mark Andrews, Evan Engram

Defense / Special Teams

New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Indianapolis Colts
Dallas Cowboys
Detroit Lions
New York Jets

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Week 16 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Thanks a ton to Adam for filling in the past two weeks while I was out of town for my bachelor party then strictly prepping for the DraftKings World Championship! I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas and a wonderful holiday season thus far! Lets get back to it and are dive into a nice 10-game Week 16 NFL DFS slate. Also, good luck to everyone who made their season long Championships!!

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 16, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

CHALK REPORT: David Montgomery, Austin Ekeler, Le’Veon Bell, and Travis Kelce project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 35%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST ONE of them in our NFL DFS cash lineups. It’s surprisingly a decent spread on ownership this week.
Small player pool this week and you’ll notice that in the article.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – He’s the most pricey quarterback on the slate and likely the highest in ownership. We don’t care about either of those things this week. It’s Patrick Mahomes, at home, against a banged up Atlanta Falcons secondary who are giving up an expected minimum of 290 passing yards. Not to mention the Chiefs just lost their lead running back, Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Mahomes and this passing attack are going to go nuts.
Jalen Hurts ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – If you need some savings, ride the hot hand of Jalen Hurts against Dallas. Both of these teams have been playing and an impressive quick pace and should offer little-to-no defense. Hurts clearly is a more than just a Taysom Hill like quarterback as Pederson and company called over 40 pass plays last week. They trust this kid and so should you.
Mitch Trubisky ($5,700 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need a value play, look no further than Trubisky against the 32nd ranked pass defense (DVOA). Jacksonville is an absolute trash football team right now and clearly will be trying to lose this game to sure up the #1 overall draft pick.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert

Running Backs

David Montgomery ($7,700 DK / $7,800 FD) – Extremely valuable on FanDuel as opposed to DraftKings, but likely to be the highest owned running back on both sites. Montgomery has been on fire lately and likely won’t be slowed down in this matchup against Jacksonville. I don’t think Montgomery is a must-play (on DraftKings), but he’s likely the top-dog running back on a small Week 16 NFL DFS slate.

Personally, give me the guy below him.
Miles Sanders ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) – On a small slate with not a whole lot of running back talent, I will make sure to roster one of the most talented runners on the slate (toss up between Sanders and Nick Chubb). In this case, I’m going with Miles Sanders on both sites due to the significant discount. Doug Pederson is done getting cute and not unleashing Miles Sanders as he’s racked up over 80% of the snaps in the past two weeks.

In a game with no defense, give me all of the Miles Sanders I can get against the 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Melvin Gordon ($5,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – ALL THE WAY IN ON MELVIN GORDON.
– Revenge game
– No Philip Lindsay
– The Chargers are one of the worst run defenses in the NFL
– The Meme Play of Week 16

https://twitter.com/StixPicks/status/1342876494297767942

4. Le’Veon Bell ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – With no CEH, Le’Veon Bell is an easy freesquare this week. Personally, I don’t think he’s a must play either, but this is a very affordable way to get exposure to the best offense on this slate (by a mile). If he’s going to be 40% or higher in NFL DFS cash game ownership, it won’t hurt to roster Bell. A double-digit, home-favorite running back is something we always invest in.

5. Gio Bernard ($4,800 DK / $6,000 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings against a Houston defense that absolutely bleeds fantasy points to opposing running backs and ranks 29th in run defense DVOA. Yikes.

Honorable Mention: Nick Chubb, Austin Ekeler, Kareem Hunt

Wide Receivers

Calvin Ridley ($8,500 DK / $9,400 FD) – Too expensive for me, but it’s hard not to love the only game in town for the Atlanta Falcons, especially when they’ll be chasing points all game long.
Allen Robinson ($7,700 DK / $7,500 FD) – His pricing on FanDuel makes zero sense so absolutely lock him in over there and likely do the same on DraftKings. This is a must-win game for the Bears (I find it very hard to believe this game will even be close) but they’ll get Allen Robinson going early in this game and take advantage of the worst secondary in the NFL.
Jarvis Landry ($6,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Keep an eye on this game’s status with Cleveland having COVID-19 issues, but if it goes, Landry is in another elite spot on the inside of the Jets’ 29th ranked pass defense. Cleveland is in a must-win game and won’t hesitate to score at will to start this game.
Robert Woods ($7,000 DK / $7,300 FD) & Cooper Kupp ($6,600 DK / $6,800 FD) – We have picked on Seattle’s secondary all year long and I refuse to quit now after a few poor weeks from the Rams’ offense. McVay will be on a mission to right the ship this week and I’m expecting a big output for the Rams’ passing attack with Cam Akers out with an injury.
Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $5,800 FD) & AJ Green ($3,400 DK / $5,500 FD) – No Tyler Boyd = load up on Tee Higgins and/or AJ Green. I strongly prefer the upside in Tee Higgins who will see a lot of Vernon Hargreaves in coverage, but you can certainly punt down to AJ Green as well if you don’t use Higgins. Houston’s defense as a whole is trash.
Jamison Crowder ($4,500 DK ONLY) – Not in love with the play, but if this game stays on schedule for Sunday, Crowder’s price is way too low for the expected target share against a poor Cleveland secondary.

Honorable Mention: Brandin Cooks, Tyler Lockett, Mike Williams (if Keenan Allen is OUT), Cam Sims

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD) – It’s Travis Kelce and it’s a matchup against the Falcons (27th in DVOA against opposing tight ends), but most of all, it’s Travis Kelce.
Mark Andrews ($5,700 DK ONLY) – He needs to be priced up over $6K. If you can’t afford Kelce, Mark Andrews is a clear number two option here at the tight end position.
Logan Thomas ($4,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – Helluva price hike over the past few weeks but this dude is just an absolute target machine (regardless of who plays QB). Better yet, Terry McLaurin is likely out for this matchup. Thomas will be a busy man on Sunday.

Honorable Mention: Noah Fant, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert

Defense / Special Teams

Chicago Bears
Cleveland Browns
Washington Football Team
Houston Texans
Carolina Panthers
Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Patrick Mahomes
RB: Giovani Bernard
RB: Melvin Gordon
WR: Tee Higgins
WR: Jamison Crowder
WR: Cooper Kupp
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Miles Sanders
DST: Denver Broncos

Good luck this week!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Games! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid Week 12 slate (without a lot of terrible games that are easy fades and just a few up-paced games where we really want to invest). Let’s go.

I’ve been under the weather recently so won’t be writing a whole lot about each player. Just DM on Twitter/Discord this week if you need to talk over your build with someone.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
CHALK REPORT: Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Brian Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST FOUR or FIVE of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – Always my favorite quarterback play on any slate. There’s really no one as safe and as consistent as Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think he’s a must play in cash this week, but I do think Travis Kelce is. Use one or the other or a combo of the two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.
Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – By far the highest owned quarterback on this slate in a high total game against a Chargers’ defense that will be missing both Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram. Chris Harris does return, but I don’t think this Chargers’ defense can stop a nosebleed these days, it’s wheels up for Allen and the Bills.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Hello, sweet, sweet savings (on DraftKings). Fitzpatrick gets the nod as Tua was recently ruled out with injury and also will be missing any threat of a quality running attack with no Salvon Ahmed or Myles Gaskin. This matchup against the Jets is the best matchup on paper for opposing quarterbacks (ranked 32 in pass defense DVOA) and will pose no threat for Fitzpatrick getting to 3x value on DraftKings.

As of now, he’s my personal cash game quarterback.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $11,000 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook in one of the best matchups all season. He’s on fire and a core piece of my DraftKings’ cash build. As for FanDuel, he’s hard to fade there as well (-400 odds to score a TD, lol), but he’s very expensive. If you can afford him, use him.
James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – Simply priced way too low for the workload he’s likely to receive with Chris Thompson out and Mike Glennon now under center. Cleveland’s defense is not what is was earlier in the season and will again be missing Myles Garret.

The Value Backs

Nyheim Hines ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brian Hill ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD)
Wayne Gallman ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Honestly, I’ll be locking in two of the above value backs because I’m locking in Travis Kelce and Dalvin Cook. If you don’t want to do that, I suggest you just use Hines and get creative with your build elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Keenan is simply on another planet this year and just insane weekly rapport with Justin Herbert. You all know how much I love to load up slot receivers against Buffalo’s Taron Johnson, so this is a matchup that should be fruitful.

I am interested to see how Sean McDermott and this defense try to scheme away Keenan Allen. There’s no chance they just let Taron Johnson get worked for four straight quarters. I’d imagine McDermott watched the Miami/Buffalo film and took notes on how Brian Flores used safeties to help out their awful slot corner, Nik Needham.

I think I’ll fade Keenan at 20% ownership in GPPs, but I’ll be quite interested in using him in NFL DFS cash games.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – Getting exposure to this Chargers/Bills game is going to be one of my higher priorities in all of my DFS lineups regardless of cash or GPP. You cannot go wrong with Stefon Diggs, especially when John Brown is out.
Justin Jefferson ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jefferson is likely to be the heaviest owned wide receiver on this slate with Adam Thielen likely missing this game due to COVID-19. I will likely fade him in tournaments but eat the chalk in cash games here against a well below-average Carolina secondary.

I don’t love using he and Dalvin Cook together but many times this year the double stack has been on the winning side of cash game lineups. It’s probably best you eat the chalk here as well.
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Simply way too cheap of a WR1 price-tag against the Jets’ secondary.
Jarvis Landry ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD) – Well, if you saw my whiskey-infused tweet the other night, you know how high I am on Jarvis Landry this weekend, lol. Tre Herndon is literally the only starting cornerback left on this active roster in Jacksonville… that is a problem. Landry should bust out in a massive way on Sunday as long as the Jaguars can keep this one somewhat close.
Laviska Shenault ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – He’s damn near min price on both sites with a 4.5 receptions prop. Despite what the quarterback situation is here, Shenault should be the focal point of whatever is left of the Jaguars passing game. We just need 10 points, Laviska!

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Michael Pittman, Gabriel Davis

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – No need to say anything.
Darren Waller ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – The only tight-end that is anything close to the fantasy producer Kelce is. I’d much rather have Kelce at the slightly higher price-tag, but this should be a great game environment in Atlanta for Darren Waller.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD) – Really my only “value” tight-end this week.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed

Defense / Special Teams

Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants
Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Nyheim Hines
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Laviska Shenault
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Brian Hill
DST: Broncos

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 10, which is a bit of a strange slate to say the least.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Mike Davis (lock in cash), Duke Johnson, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Kyler Murray at this point in the season? No. No we do not. You know what you’re getting out of Kyler Murray and 15% or more of the field is going to roster him against Buffalo and their mediocre defense.
Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – On the other side of Kyler Murray is Mr. Josh Allen. Thank the lord we decided he was our QB1 last week and I have no problem if you go back to the well with Allen on the road as a slight underdog in a 56-point total. This game is going to be fun to watch and offer a lot of fireworks from a fantasy standpoint.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Mike Davis ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Just use him. McCaffrey is out and Davis is clearly mis-priced. He should be 100% owned in cash games and his output doesn’t matter. It’s not an ideal matchup against the 3rd best run defense in the league, but I find it nearly impossible for him not to get to 13+ fantasy points. Take the savings and run on the Davis freesquare.
Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – The lead running back on the team with the highest Adjusted Expected Team Total, at home, against the worst overall defense in the NFL (32nd in overall defense DVOA). My only concern with Jones is the return of Jamaal Williams who is certainly going to get plenty of snaps out of this Green Bay backfield (especially if this game gets out of hand).
Duke Johnson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another freesquare with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. I little bit better of a matchup than Mike Davis against Tampa Bay, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings (very affordable on FanDuel). If you want to use two punt running backs and pay up at QB/WR/TE, your path to victory in cash would be using Davis and Johnson together.

I’m not sure that’s the way I want my lineup to look with Johnson being quite inefficient via the run, but the pass catching ability should alleviate any concerns we have about Johnson’s floor for cash games.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Giovani Bernard, Kalen Ballage, James Robinson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Davante Adams against the absolute worst pass defense in the the NFL. Check mate. Personally, I am only going to play one Packer (Jones or Adams). Right now, I’m leaning Adams.
Stefon Diggs ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) – I love the value here on FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings as well… Especially when 25% of the field (if not more) is going to roster Diggs in NFL DFS cash games. Whether or not Patrick Peterson shadows should not deter you from rostering the best route runner in the NFL who owns a ~30% target share.
Michael Thomas ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – Just way too cheap for Michael Thomas against a completely depleted, struggling secondary in San Francisco. Thomas led the team in targets last week and will start to get back to a similar workload he had in 2019 (certainly not as high of a floor he had last year, but it’s still incredibly high).
Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800) – Is there anyone in the NFL that’s been more consistent than Keenan Allen? No. No, there isn’t. Remember just a few weeks ago when were so high on Cooper Kupp in this same matchup against Miami’s slot cornerback, Nik Needham? Yea, let’s ride. Keenan is as safe as ever to get to 2.5x value in you NFL DFS Cash Games.
Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – In the first game without Odell Beckham we saw Jarvis rack up 11 targets (in that gale-force wind game against Las Vegas). I’m always going to be interested in sure-handed wide receivers with a 30% target share. Pair all of that with a matchup against Houston’s Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves and you’re going to be happy with the result.

Hell, Jake Luton and the Jaguars’ receiving core went nuts last week…
Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – Reynolds comes into the week grading out as the #1 NFL DFS value in the AETY Model for wide receivers. We all know how much of a pass funnel defense Seattle is as team’s torch them on a weekly basis. Reynolds is locked in for a minimum of 75% of the Rams’ offensive snaps assuming this game goes up-paced like Vegas and the pre-match 56 point total support.

I’d certainly prefer Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp here, but at this price, I’ll always sign off on cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Chris Conley, Tyler Lockett, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet, but here are my top options on the slate.

Darren Waller ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
Greg Olsen ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Reynolds
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
DST: Detroit Lions

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 8 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 7 was an absolutely wild weekend full of insane scoring and all of the chalk players breaking the slate. I believe the NFL DFS Cash Game pay-lines on DraftKings were damn near 195 points! Wild times. Let’s get right to it for what should hopefully be a semi-normal week of DFS.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

Looks like the whole field is either going with Wilson or Garoppolo for cash. I’m leaning Garoppolo for the savings.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Kareem Hunt, Derrick Henry, Alvin Kamara, and Keenan Allen all project for over 25% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
UPDATE: Denzel Mims is > 20% as well.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,800 DK / $8,700) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a banged up San Francisco defense who plays a lot of man-to-man (which should open up some rushing upside yet again for Wilson).
AETY Projection: 24.48 points
Jimmy Garoppolo ($5,400 DK / $6,600 FD) – Probably the best pay-down option on this slate as a whole. This is the best matchup for opposing quarterbacks (Seattle ranks 30th in passing defense DVOA)… the gamescript that likely leads the 49ers in an up-paced shootout, and Seattle’s defense is giving up an adjusted expected 350 passing yards per game. Yikes.
AETY Projection: 19.36 points

Honorable Mention: Aaron Rodgers, Ryan Tannehill, Patrick Mahomes

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD) & Derrick Henry ($8,000 DK / $9,500) – You likely cannot roster both of the high-end studs in your cash game lineup, but you’re going to want at least one of them. At the moment, I’m leaning Henry on FanDuel and Kamara on DraftKings. It’s hard not to love them both for cash as they both have juicy matchups on the road.
Kamara AETY Projection: 22.70 DK / 19.56 FD
Henry AETY Projection: 21.75 DK / 20.79 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – Hunt looks like he’s in another smash spot (Las Vegas is 29th in run defense DVOA) this week after a bit of a letdown in Week 7. I trust the AETY Model and I trust the new matchup rating tool; where Hunt and the Cleveland Browns rank #1 in overall run efficiency on this slate against the #2 run matchup with the Raiders (launching on the site soon).
AETY Projection: 23.16 DK / 21.58 FD
Jamaal Williams ($6,100 DK / $7,000 FD) – Aaron Jones is out again, wheels up, Jamaal Williams. This price is still way too low for the starting running back on one of the best offenses in the NFL. This game should be a Packers’ blowout with a lot of running the ball in the second half. Williams will hit 3x value again at this low price-point.
AETY Projection: 19.84 DK / 18.13 FD
Darrell Henderson ($5,900 DK / $6,100 FD) – I wish he were a lot more active in the passing game, but Henderson grades out well this week as he’s entering the #1 ranked matchup for opposing running backs. Miami’s defense ranks dead last in run defense DVOA and the Rams grade out #1 in run offense DVOA. My only concern here is McVay getting cute with his timeshare backfield.

It’s probably best to use Henderson in GPPs, but he grades out as cash viable in my model.
AETY Projection: 13.25 DK / 12.43 FD
Value Running Back (TBD) – Keep an eye on this throughout the weekend. We currently have a few spots to watch for potential value running backs to pop up:
– Seattle (DeeJay Dallas)
– San Francisco (Hasty/Coleman)
– Denver (Melvin Gordon)

I’ll update this spot as soon as I have a better read on these situations.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Myles Gaskin, Jonathan Taylor, La’Mical Perine

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,800 DK / $9,100 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Davante Adams against Minnesota’s minor league secondary? No, no we don’t.
AETY Projection: 23.72 DK / 19.57 FD
Tyler Lockett ($7,100 DK / $7,200 FD) & DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD) – Your weekly edition of what Seahawk wideout do you want to play. They’re quite expensive this week and I prefer to stack them both in a NFL DFS GPP lineup, but it’s hard not to want to jam one of these guys in for your cash lineup.

I think the matchup is advantage Metcalf here who will most likely spend a lot of time burning Emmanuel Moseley in coverage all day long, but you can’t go wrong with Lockett either.

I don’t think you have to have one of these guys in your cash lineup if you make it a priority to get Adams.
Lockett AETY Projection: 19.51 DK / 16.34 FD
Metcalf AETY Projection: 19.60 DK / 16.67 FD
Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD) – No idea why DraftKings hasn’t raised his price yet. The dude is seeing over a 30% target share and should be priced near $7K in PPR formats like DraftKings. I don’t love this matchup for Keenan Allen at all this week, but he’s such a special route runner and everyone is going to roster Allen in NFL DFS Cash Games this week.

I’ll likely fade him in GPP lineups and eat the chalk in cash games.
AETY Projection: 17.74 DK / 14.26 FD
Tyler Boyd ($6,600 DK / $6,400 FD) – Same story as Keenan Allen except this is a matchup I want to take advantage of against slot cornerback Chris Jackson. The Titans absolutely bleed fantasy points to opposing slot receivers.

The Bengals o-line is in shambles, so we know Burrow is going to need to get the ball out quickly. Advantage Tyler Boyd. With or without the heavy winds, this game should shoot out and keep Boyd heavily involved all day long.
AETY Projection: 16.35 DK / 13.18 FD
Brandon Aiyuk ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – With Deebo Samuel out, Aiyuk is the clear-cut #1 wideout for the 49ers. We will see a ton of Kittle and some Kendrick Bourne as well, but at ~20% ownership we likely need to ride with Aiyuk here for some exposure to this afternoon hammer of a shootout.

Seattle’s secondary is brutal and Aiyuk is a freak talent. I’m genuinely excited to see him shine in this matchup.
AETY Projection: 14.76 DK / 11.96 FD
Jarvis Landry ($5,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – If you’re not using Hunt, use Landry without Odell Beckham in the lineup for the rest of the season. We will pick on Lamarcus Joyner all year long.
AETY Projection: 14.01 DK / 11.19 FD
TY Hilton ($4,900 DK / $5,500 FD) – Probably not a safe cash play, but the targets are coming in the boatloads for Hilton as of late. This is likely the lowest we will ever see his price. He’s currently sitting on most sportsbooks with a 4.5 catch prop for 50 yards.

That’s not quite going to get him to 2.5x value in NFL DFS cash games, but the AETY Model has Hilton for around 60 receiving yards this week against a brutal Detroit secondary.
AETY Projection: 12.88 DK / 10.42 FD

PUNTS – IF YOU NEED SOME PUNT PLAYS TO JAM IN TOP TIER CASH PLAYS, HERE’S A LIST OF GUYS I WOULD CONSIDER… DO NOT EXPECT MUCH FROM THEM, YOU’RE JUST HOPING THEY CAN GET CLOSE TO 10 POINTS.

UPDATE: Denzel Mims ($3,200 DK / $4,900 FD) – Locking in Mims for my cash game lineups. He’s now projected for over 20% ownership. We don’t need much out of him to hit value. Use him and it opens up so much for your build.

Honorable Mention: Kenny Golladay, AJ Brown, AJ Green, Justin Jefferson

Tight Ends

George Kittle ($7,000 DK / $7,700 FD) – Expensive, but easily the best play for me at the tight end position in NFL DFS this weekend… especially if Jamal Adams misses this game (currently a game time decision).
AETY Projection: 17.93 DK / 14.87 FD
Darren Waller ($5,600 / $6,800 FD) – Way too cheap on DraftKings. Load him up if you cannot afford Kittle. This matchup is sexy as hell against a banged up Cleveland defense in a game where there will be plenty of scoring and plenty of wind. The wind should not affect Waller whatsoever.

With his target share, he needs to be priced over $6K on DraftKings.
AETY Projection: 16.28 DK / 13.20 FD

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith, Travis Kelce

Defense / Special Teams

Kansas City Chiefs
New Orleans Saints
Baltimore Ravens
Green Bay Packers
Chicago Bears
Detroit Lions

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
RB: Jamaal Williams
RB: Kareem Hunt
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Denzel Mims
TE: Darren Waller
FLEX: Myles Gaskin
DST: Detroit Lions

5 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 5 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 6 was personally the best week of DFS of my life and what made it even better were all of the screenshots from the Win Daily members. Nothing gets me more fired up than seeing our team absolutely crush a NFL DFS slate. Let’s run it back again in Week 7.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

The player pool is HUGE. I personally am not a fan of DraftKings moving an 11-game slate up to a 12-gamer, but oh well. So many great options and value everywhere.
Quarterback seems a bit slim for me. Kyler and Russ are going to draw a ton of ownership and it’s just tough to fade that game in general
Gio Bernard and Alvin Kamara chalk week. You likely HAVE to lock in both in your cash game builds.
Tons of good WRs for cash games this week.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,100 DK / $8,400 FD) – Seattle’s pass defense has been torched on a weekly basis, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. We don’t need to look into this matchup too much, lol. Kyler Murray’s rushing floor is second to nobody on this slate and a 55-point total clearly states this game is going to be up-pace and high scoring.

Kyler is going to be the highest owned QB on this slate and it’s an easy decision to go with the public and ride Murray as your cash game quarterback here at home against Seattle.
AETY Projection: 25.29 points

2. Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) – Assuming Aaron Jones is still highly questionable to suit up for the early matchup of Green Bay @ Houston, Aaron Rodgers should be heavily leaned on in a much needed bounce-back victory after completely laying an egg last week in Tampa Bay.

Houston’s defense overall is terrible and the pace of this game should be one of the higher ones on the slate. If Aaron Jones plays, I’m not as interested in Rodgers, but if he’s out, I absolutely love Rodgers with a plus matchup on the road in the dome.

Green Bay is simply way too efficient when they lean on Rodgers and this pass game. This is a great spot for Rodgers and this Packers’ offense as a whole.
AETY Projection: 22.08 points

3. Matt Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – If you want to pay down a bit at QB, there’s never a better matchup on the board than a QB against Atlanta (30th in pass defense DVOA). Hell, Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and still had a season-best fantasy performance. You know the drill at this point in the season: use quarterbacks against Atlanta.
AETY Projection: 21.36 points

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Joe Burrow

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,300 FD) – No Michael Thomas. No Emmanuel Sanders. Carolina’s run defense (or lack thereof)… Wheels up for Alvin Kamara (-250 to score on most sports-books… sexy). Lock him in for your cash game lineups!
AETY Projection: 25.05 DK / 21.64 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – Kareem Hunt’s ownership is likely to be through the roof this week (as will Kamara’s and Bernard’s). It’s hard for me to get off of Hunt in my cash game lineups (and most lineups for that matter) because this matchup is too juicy for me to turn my back on.

The Bengals are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs and have been rather loose with pass catching running backs. Hunt is a pure three-down running back behind one of the best offensive lines in football. At this price, he’s likely a must-play in most DFS formats this weekend.
AETY Projection: 21.73 DK / 20.22 FD
Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD – Simply way too cheap for a top-tier, three-down running back who is playing in the chalkiest game on the slate. Arizona’s run defense is slightly above average, but I’m not afraid of the matchup at all with how active Carson is in the Seattle passing attack. His floor is 4 catches in this matchup and should have plenty of opportunities to get into the end-zone.
AETY Projection: 18.75 DK / 17.10 FD
Giovanni Bernard ($4,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – With Joe Mixon out, Gio Bernard is the easy, free-square play in Week 7. Use him in cash games.
AETY Projection: 15.94 DK / 14.03 FD
Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD) – If you need another salary saver in addition to Bernard, Antonio Gibson should be that guy for you again this week. He never really does anything special, but this is the best matchup Gibson has had in quite some time. Dallas currently ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and literally get destroyed by opposing backs on a weekly basis.

I hate how much JD McKissic we see for Washington each week, but Gibson is the more talented player and finally has low odds to score a touchdown this week (-105). Yea, that’s nothing special, but Vegas hasn’t shown Gibson that type of love all season. If you need the savings, ride Gibson.
AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 13.78 FD

**Jamaal Williams is in play IF Aaron Jones is OUT

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, James Conner, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – If Aaron Jones is out, I want to do everything in my power to lock in Adams in my cash lineups. He’s going to be the heaviest owned WR on this slate and is matchup proof. I likely won’t make my decision on Adams until Sunday morning, but I know I really, really want him to fit in my cash lineup.
AETY Projection: 21.25 DK / 17.61 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – #1 Wide Receiver against Atlanta. Do we need to say more? Lock in Golladay. He needs to priced up around $7,200 in this matchup on DraftKings.
AETY Projection: 19.41 DK / 16.22 FD
Tyler Lockett ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Classic case of me and the Seahawks wide receivers in cash games. On FanDuel, DK Metcalf is cheaper, use him. On DraftKings, Lockett is cheaper… so I’m using him.

If you’re not playing Wilson or Carson in cash, you’re going to want one of these Seahawks’ pass catchers. We can’t fade this game.
AETY Projection: 17.66 DK / 14.58 FD
Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jacksonville is dead last in pass defense DVOA and Keenan Allen is an absolute target monster for Justin Herbert. The AETY model has Allen’s projected target share for 30% this week and that’s something to note in itself for your NFL DFS cash games.

Vegas props on Allen are also through the roof with a 6.5 receptions player prop (juice is on the over). That’s wild.
AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 14.91 FD
Terry McLaurin ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – I have no idea what DraftKings is doing with McLaurin’s price-tag. This guy just puts up points on a weekly basis and gets a juicy matchup against Trevon Diggs from the Cowboys. That’s a top-five matchup on this slate. Lock him in.
AETY Projection: 18.21 DK / 14.80 FD
Diontae Johnson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – We’ll likely need another salary saver at the wide receiver position, so welcome back, Diontae Johnson. ~~I don’t love this matchup as much now that Adoree Jackson is likely back for the Titans~~, but he’s too cheap to not consider in NFL DFS cash games.

Adoree Jackson is out. Much more confident in Diontae.
AETY Projection: 11.15 DK / 8.91 FD

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, Dontrelle Inman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,300 DK / $7,900 FD) – Clearly the top tight end on this slate. I hate paying down at tight-end, but this week I’ll likely have to. If you can find a way to build around Kelce, do it.
Hunter Henry ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Henry is averaging 7 targets per game but is priced in the mid $4K’s… This is a lay-up on DraftKings and a free-throw on FanDuel (I’m not sure what that means but wanted to stay on theme with basketball). Henry is by far the #1 value at the tight end position in the AETY Model.
AETY Projection: 13.93 DK / 11.48 FD
David Njoku ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – I personally think Harrison Bryant is a much more talented player than Njoku, but with Hooper out, Bryant is going to be leaned on for blocking first, running routes second. Njoku is an awful blocker but a quality route runner. He’s going to be extremely popular in DFS this week due to the price tag and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk for the savings in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 8.39 DK / 6.77 FD

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Jared Cook, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas

Defense / Special Teams

Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Bucs
Los Angeles Chargers
Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Gio Bernard
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Washington

5 years ago 0 comments

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