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NFL DFS Double Ups

NFL DFS Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season, 2-0! It was a pleasure to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord AGAIN last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 3! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, plenty of value at the running back position. Use it! (Everyone is going to pay-down at RB this week… just something to think about in your NFL DFS GPP lineups)
Loaded slate of Quarterbacks… don’t get cute!
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Honestly, the QB position is relatively easy this week for your NFL DFS cash games. Last week was gross, but this week there are a ton of great choices. We’re going to want a QB that has dual-threat upside or someone that can throw for 300+ yards and 2 touchdowns. I’ll simply list them below as you know what to do:

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)
Jalen Hurts ($7,600 DK / $8,100 FD)
Lamar Jackson ($8,000 DK / $8,600 FD)

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Cash Game Running Backs

Joe Mixon ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)

At the top of the board, the highest salary at the running back position I’m likely going to in cash, is Joe Mixon. Joe Mixon is a lock for 20+ touches in any gamescript right now and the touchdown variance is likely to start falling in his favor. With a matchup against mediocre run defense (21st in DVOA), and a bad defense overall, Mixon should be in a prime spot at home to get over that 2.5x value mark we’re looking for in our cash game lineups.

Leonard Fournette ($6,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

The Buccaneers will likely be without a lot of their weapons on the offensive side of things with Mike Evans suspended and both Chris Godwin and Julio Jones injured. Sure, there will likely be some value opening up on the Bucs’ wide receiving core, but we know Brady goes to guys he trusts. Like Mixon, Fournette will certainly be in store for a 20+ touch afternoon and heavily involved in the passing game for a depleted pass-catching roster. The way to attack this Green Bay defense is via the run and check-down game.

David Montgomery ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD)

Let’s not reinvent the wheel here. The chalk is going to be David Montgomery on likely both NFL DFS outlets. Houston has one of the worst run defenses in the NFL (25th in DVOA) and like the two runners above, Montgomery is a volume guy that should certainly pay off the lower salary, especially on DraftKings.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, Dameon Pierce (locked in if Roquan Smith is out for the Bears, likely locked in for me anyways due to wanting Kupp).

Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,900 DK / $9,800 FD) & Justin Jefferson ($9,300 DK / $9,500 FD)

With the value opened up at the running back position, I’ll be making it a focal point to lock in one of these top wideouts on the slate. I’d love to include Davante Adams in this mix, but I’m only going with the two who will be playing in a dome and up-paced environments. Arizona has one of the worst secondaries in football (as if you needed a written reason to support Cooper Kupp), and Justin Jefferson destroys Detroit’s man defense. Both of these situations are fantasy fire-up spots in what should be up-tempo matchups across the board.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

We truly have a star in the making in Amon-Ra St. Brown. The target share currently sits third in the NFL at over 33% and also leads the team in red-zone targets. Chandon Sullivan on the inside of the Minnesota defense isn’t as bad as Benjamin St. Juste who we picked on last week, but he’s not far from it. Trust the chemistry with Goff and St. Brown in your NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Tee Higgins ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD)

I’d love to pay-up for Ja’Maar Chase, but I’ll settle for cheaper exposure to the Bengals’ passing attack if I do not pay-up for Joe Mixon. The Jets are dead last in pass defense DVOA and clearly have the worst secondary in football right now. Wheels up for the volume and red-zone upside for Tee Higgins (especially on DraftKings).

Curtis Samuel ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

I’ll be riding the hot hand of Curtis Samuel who is clearly the main focus of the passing game for Ron Rivera and Scott Turner. The price is simply too low for a guy with an AETY Model expected target share of 22% in a game where they should be playing form behind.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Drake London, Mecole Hardman, Breshad Perriman

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Keeping this one simple this week. You’re paying up for Travis Kelce, or paying down for Irv Smith chalk-week. I prefer the Kelce route, but 100% understand the Irv Smith chalk if it allows you to roster Cooper Kupp and hopefully Joe Mixon.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Zach Ertz, TJ Hockenson

Defense / Special Teams

Per usual, I will not do a full writeup on defense. Here are the teams I’m targeting to cap off my NFL DFS cash game lineup:

Los Angeles Chargers
Carolina Panthers
Las Vegas Raiders
Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Josh Allen
David Montgomery
Curtis Samuel
Tee Higgins
Dameon Pierce

UPDATE: Mack Hollins Value is in-play with Renfrow OUT.

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate as sports FINALLY return.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

What a start to the NFL DFS Cash Game Season! It was a pleasure to see all of the green-screens on Twitter and Discord last week. Everyone seemed to have smashed their cash games and we’re here to do it again in Week 2! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 2, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Plenty of value at the running back position. Use it!
Gross slate of quarterbacks… don’t get cute there.
Some injury concerns we will keep an eye on. Check back Sunday!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,500 DK / $8,500 FD)

It was a bit of a shock to see how bad Arizona was offensively last week against the Chiefs, but that game got out of hand quick. On a gross slate like we have here in Week 2, I’m more than confident to write-off what happened in Arizona last week and lead the article with Kyler Murray. One thing is for certain: the Cardinals’ defense is dreadful and will lead to Murray and this offense to work extremely hard if they ever want to win a football game. That is something I’m interested in for my cash game lineups.

The rushing upside will always be there with Kyler, though I don’t expect a ceiling rushing effort this week against the Raiders’ heavy-zone defense, but it’s enough to push him ahead of any other quarterback on this slate in terms of the AETY Model projections. This game has the highest total on the slate and I expect a full-on back and forth slugfest.

Derek Carr ($6,200 DK / $7,300 FD)

Again, I want exposure to this shootout and if you cannot afford Murray, Derek Carr is my clear #2 option in terms of price. Carr and the Raiders’ have a healthy depth chart loaded with offensive talent and again, the Arizona Cardinals’ defense is dreadful.

Honorable Mention: Trey Lance, Lamar Jackson

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,900 DK / $10,000 FD)

If you can afford Jonathan Taylor in your NFL DFS cash game lineups, you play him.

Joe Mixon ($7,200 DK / $8,300 FD)

The Bengals are more than a touchdown favorite on the road against a Dallas Cowboys team who will be starting Cooper Rush at quarterback. This game is not a lay down spot for the Bengals after they just got embarrassed at home against the Steelers. The Bengals will come out firing to make a statement that they’re ready to play and I expect Joe Mixon to be the main beneficiary of that gamescript. Mixon is one of the few running backs that will be on the field for over 70% of their teams’ offensive snaps and is in a prime spot to get in the box (multiple times) as Dallas likely continues to struggle stopping the run.

If you can afford the extra $100 on DraftKings, the chalk will go with Saquon Barkley and I’m 100% okay with that move as well. You don’t need me to write-up Saquon Barkley.

Leonard Fournette ($6,700 DK / $7,800 FD)

Fournette didn’t really get a whole lot of work in the passing game last week in Dallas but history tells us that is likely to change for the better almost immediately. The AETY Model consistently has Leonard Fournette in the top-3 for expected opportunity share and that is exactly what we want for our cash game lineups. The New Orleans run defense was just carved up by Cordarrelle Patterson of all people, lol. Keep an eye on his hamstring injury, it’s likely that I’m leaning towards avoiding Fournette in cash if there’s any wind of a reduced workload or questionable status on Sunday morning.

Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

I’m not truly convinced we won’t see a bit more Cam Akers this week, but there’s no doubt Henderson is the lead back for the Rams’ offense at this time. As a 10-point home favorite against the worst run defense in the NFL, take the value and ride the chalk with Henderson in your NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Jeff Wilson Jr. ($5,100 DK / $6,300 FD)

Similar to Henderson, there’s nothing about Jeff Wilson that gets me excited. We’ll 100% see a lot of Deebo Samuel and Trey Lance in the rushing attack, but the value here for Wilson is important for the way that I’m structuring my cash game builds. In GPP, I’m 100% happy to fade this spot but in cash, I’m likely taking the 15-touch and red-zone equity of Jeff Wilson.

I almost prefer Dameon Pierce against a weaker Denver run defense if we’re just taking the cheap value to afford our priority studs, but if you flock with the ownership, Wilson is your guy.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, Antonio Gibson, Dameon Pierce (viable punt-play if you need to spend up elsewhere and don’t trust Wilson)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,600 DK / $8,800 FD)

The best wide receiver in football with the highest expected target AND red-zone share is $1,300 less on DraftKings than Cooper Kupp. Marco Wilson and this Arizona secondary is about to be torched. Lock in Davante Adams.

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($6,500 DK / $6,900 FD)

The weekly “pick on Benjamin St. Juste” matchup. For the same reason we locked in Christian Kirk we are locking in St. Brown this week. The price-tag is sexy and the matchup is even better for the clear-cut WR1 in Detroit.

Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

I’m going right back to the well with Marquise Brown in cash games if I’m not using Zach Ertz. Hollywood is set for a field day against the Raiders’ outside corners in zone coverage. Again, we WANT exposure to this football game.

Curtis Samuel ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD)

Likely a DraftKings only play for me, but this is the same type of situation as Henderson and Wilson. Samuel is going to be extremely popular due to the Week 1 usage and the affordable price-tag. I hate the recency bias the DFS community shows, but I cannot really find a reason to not fire up Curtis Samuel as he played over 70% of the offensive snaps, lined up all over the formations, and lead the team in targets (which was 12th overall on the main slate last week). Take the value in your NFL DFS cash game lineup and run.

Honorable Mention: Cooper Kupp, Jerry Jeudy, Parris Campbell, Tee Higgins, Greg Dortch

NFL DFS Cash Game Tight-Ends

I’ll keep this section brief this week and simply list the only tight-ends that I’d consider in play for NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Mark Andrews ($6,400 DK / $7,400 FD)
Kyle Pitts ($5,400 DK / $5,900 FD)
Darren Waller ($5,600 DK / $6,800 FD)
Zach Ertz ($4,500 DK / $5,200 FD)

Honorable Mention: Evan Engram ($3,600 DK ONLY)

Defense / Special Teams

Defense is simple this week. The whole world will play the Cincinnati Bengals ($2,200 DK / $3,900 FD). I’ll be taking the free square and worry about the rest of my lineup.

NFL DFS: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Davante Adams
Joe Mixon or Saquon Barkley
Darrell Henderson Jr.
Curtis Samuel
Zach Ertz

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

The wait is over. Football is finally here and with that brings us the NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Check back in closer to Week 1 kickoff for updated roster build notes. It’s still the Preseason and all hell can break loose at any moment!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

No need to overthink this one, we’re going right back to one of the most pass-happy offenses in the NFL under Offensive Coordinator, Joe Lombardi, in a projected shootout (total of 52 points) as the Raiders come to Los Angeles. The Raiders are very unlikely to play at the high pace they did in 2021 now that Josh McDaniels is in town, but this game will still offer a significant floor for all playmakers involved.

Despite a new Defensive Coordinator, Patrick Graham (who actually did a solid job with limited talent in New York), this Raiders’ secondary is still far from a threat to slow down Justin Herbert and this Chargers’ air attack. We’ve always attacked Trayvon Mullen and Rock Ya-Sin in the past and won’t stop doing so now. I do however respect the hell out of second year corner, Nate Hobbs (who will see a lot of Keenan Allen), so I’d rather get my exposure to the Chargers’ passing game with the man who dictates it and also has plenty of rushing upside. The floor is simply the highest for Herbert in Week 1.

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

I’m going back to the well with 2021’s 4th highest Fantasy Points Per Game Quarterback in Jalen Hurts. To keep it simple, he’s a borderline RB2 most weeks with his legs, has a healthy and somewhat loaded team of pass catchers, arguably the best offensive line in football, and he’s facing the Detroit Lions. Although the Lions are a hard-nosed defense, they do not pose much of a threat to Jalen Hurts in cash lineups at this low of a price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Lamar Jackson, Kyler Murray

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,100 DK / $10,200 FD)

You don’t really need a long paragraph or two from me to convince you to play Taylor in cash against one of the worst defensive lines in football. The Colts are an 8-point road favorite for a reason. They should have a solid handle on this game utilizing their star running back early and often.

Austin Ekeler ($8,200 DK / $9,400 FD)

If you’re not using Herbert in your cash build, I’d advise getting a share of this offense and there’s no better option (outside of Herbert) than Austin Ekeler. He may not wow you with his rushing statistics but his consistent workload in the passing game gives up that floor (15% expected target share with significant upside) that we are looking for in our cash builds.

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

We’re getting one of the best 3-down running backs in the game at a discount in Week 1 against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. There is really no threat to Kamara’s expected production at this moment so take the savings and ride a workhorse back who’s AETY Model projection has him for over a 70% snap share yet again in 2022.

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

The ultimate value running back in Week 1 is my boy (yes, I’m biased here), Saquon Barkley. Barkley is finally entering a NFL Season with 100% health and absolutely no one on the depth chart capable of taking meaningful snaps away from him. I love the fact that there’s a successful offensive mind (and an improved offensive line) now running this offense in Brian Daboll and I trust that he will put Barkley in a position to succeed right off the bat when they upset the Titans in Tennessee. Saquon is a cash lock for me in Week 1.

Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD)

Without Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson becomes a damn-near cash game staple. Don’t reinvent the wheel, take the value and run (on DraftKings).

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)

Similar to Jonathan Taylor, we do not need to deep dive into Justin Jefferson’s NFL DFS cash game appeal. He’s one of the top wide receivers in the NFL and now playing in one of the most proven pass-happy systems in the league under new Head Coach, Kevin O’Connell. The Green Bay defense is much improved across the board (and they were already good ending the 2021 season) so I wouldn’t expect a massive output out of Jefferson in Week 1, but O’Connell will find ways to scheme Justin Jefferson into success just like he did for Cooper Kupp, Robert Woods, and Odell Beckham in the past.

If you cannot afford Jefferson, I do not hate pivoting down to Adam Thielen at a discount. This game may not have the full pace most of the betting public wants it to have, but there will be plenty of fantasy production for both of these offenses.

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

There’s nothing sexy about Houston’s offense, we all know that. But… as mentioned in the Jonathan Taylor writeup, I fully expect the Colts to have a good handle on this game from the kickoff and therefore leading into a very positive gamescript for the Texans’ receiving core. As much as I love and believe in Nico Collins, Davis Mills has tunnel vision on Brandin Cooks. In the 11 games that Mills was under center as a starter in 2021, Brandin Cooks was targeted at a 27%+ clip. You simply won’t find many wideouts with a 20% target share let alone 27% priced in the 6K range.

Maybe DJ Moore, but I’ll wait to see it (assuming Baker Mayfield earns the starting job) after they play one of the best defenses in the NFL.

Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

Going with the ownership here now that Rondale Moore is out. Way too cheap and a damn-near cash game lock.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

Mainly a DraftKings only play, but if you’re not paying up for Jonathan Taylor, absolutely lock in Michael Pittman Jr. Matt Ryan turns his top wideout into fantasy gold on an annual basis and I don’t see that changing now that he is in Indianapolis. This is likely a gamescript built for Jonathan Taylor, but at this price, we’ll happily take 6 receptions, 75 yards, and a strong implied probability of a touchdown.

Rashod Bateman ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

Another WR1 priced in the mid-tier. This offense will still run through Mark Andrews and I prefer to spend up to him at the TE position if I’m looking to get a piece of the Ravens’ offense, but Bateman is way too cheap for the expected floor he will bring to NFL DFS players. The Jets’ secondary still has a lot to prove, but they will no doubt be much improved from their previous dumpster fire efforts.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, Adam Thielen, Keenan Allen, Christian Kirk

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)

He’s the best fantasy tight-end in football. If you can afford him, you play him. My only concern here is the Jets’ ability to push the pace to any degree.

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

He’s still Travis Kelce and there’s no Tyreek Hill. Kelce will no doubt be the top target in the Chiefs’ explosive passing attack. The total in this game currently sits at 54-points which will likely lead the slate in terms of expected production.

T.J. Hockenson ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)

PLAY HIM WHILE HE’S HEALTHY! I know Amon-Ra St. Brown was the sexy fantasy piece for the Detroit Lions to end the 2021 season, but when he was on the field, T.J. Hockenson was the main target for Jared Goff. The AETY Model projects a monster 21% target share for Hockenson when he’s on the field in 2022 and playing him Week 1 against one of the worst teams in defending the tight-end in 2021 is something I’m excited to do.

Honorable Mention: Dallas Goedert, Kyle Pitts

Defense / Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
New York Giants

NEW: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley
Michael Pittman
Christian Kirk
Travis Kelce

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown for DraftKings & FanDuel

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
NOT part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

Check back in closer to Week 1 kickoff for updated roster build notes. It’s still the Preseason and all hell can break loose at any moment!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

Jalen Hurts ($6,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,100 DK / $10,200 FD)

Austin Ekeler ($8,200 DK / $9,400 FD)

Alvin Kamara ($7,600 DK / $8,500 FD)

Saquon Barkley ($6,100 DK / $6,800 FD)

Antonio Gibson ($5,800 DK / $6,800 FD)

Without Brian Robinson, Antonio Gibson becomes a damn-near cash game staple. Don’t reinvent the wheel, take the value and run (on DraftKings).

Honorable Mention: Christian McCaffrey, Joe Mixon, James Conner, Aaron Jones, Dameon Pierce

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($7,800 DK / $8,100 FD)

Brandin Cooks ($6,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

Marquise Brown ($6,200 DK / $6,900 FD)

Going with the ownership here now that Rondale Moore is out. Way too cheap and a damn-near cash game lock.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,500 DK / $7,200 FD)

Rashod Bateman ($5,300 DK / $6,100 FD)

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD)

He’s the best fantasy tight-end in football. If you can afford him, you play him. My only concern here is the Jets’ ability to push the pace to any degree.

Travis Kelce ($6,600 DK / $8,000 FD)

T.J. Hockenson ($4,900 DK / $5,700 FD)

Defense / Special Teams

Baltimore Ravens
New Orleans Saints
Miami Dolphins
Washington Commanders
New York Giants

NEW: The Fab Five

Going to get back to my roots and post “The Fab Five”, which is simply just one more player than your typical “core-four” you get in the NFL DFS industry.

Jalen Hurts
Saquon Barkley
Michael Pittman
Christian Kirk
Travis Kelce

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 18 – Cash Game and GPP Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Huge Week 17 from the Win Daily Team!!! Congratulations to everyone who destroyed the slate. So many screenshots and so many 4-digit screenshots! Welcome back to the Week 18 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown, let’s stay hot. Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. With a lot of uncertainty in this slate, this will be a combined article.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*PLEASE note, the players in the Cash Game Checkdown are in play for GPP’s as well. They are high-floor and usually, high-ceiling players we always want to play. This article is simply to provide a different perspective on some ways you can make your GPP lineup different.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Cash Game Pool:

Josh Allen – best matchup on the slate for a QB who will certainly be playing to win. There are some weather concerns but the safety with Allen’s legs of late make him a smash cash game play.
Tom Brady – the Bucs literally do not have a quality running back healthy and we know Brady and company are going to be on a mission to change the narrative regarding their team’s recent “issues”. Carolina’s pass defense is nothing special and with the likely 40+ pass attempt volume from Tom Brady, he’s a cash game staple again in Week 18.
Matt Stafford – despite the recent struggles the fantasy points are still plentiful for what we need in a cash game lineup. A matchup at home against a pass-funnel defense of San Francisco makes Stafford my favorite quarterback to roster in NFL DFS cash games and GPP lineups.

GPP Pool:

Ryan Tannehill – I’m hoping the ownership numbers drop significantly for Tannehill (currently projected for 10% ownership on Saturday morning), but I’m mainly looking for teams who will not pull their foot off the gas pedal, and the Titans fit that narrative. Fading the D’Onta Foreman chalk and leveraging that with the Titans’ passing attack with a Brandin Cooks or Nico Collins run-back sounds intriguing.
Taysom Hill – too cheap and the Saints must win. Lot of rushing upside and the passing game has actually been solid.

Honorable Mention: Kyler Murray

NFL DFS Running Backs

James Conner – no Chase Edmonds this week.
Alvin Kamara – another sub-10% week of Alvin Kamara
Jonathan Taylor – the Colts need to win and will ride Taylor against the putrid Jacksonville defense.
Devonta Freeman – 1% owned, cheap, dual-threat running back against the Steelers 27th ranked run defense.
Devin Singletary – double-digit home favorite against the Jets 26th ranked run defense (DVOA) and #1 matchup for fantasy points against.
David Montgomery – week in, week out we talk about the usage for David Montgomery and the fantasy salary remains roughly the same. Too cheap for a dual-threat running back who doesn’t leave the field.

Honorable Mention: Dalvin Cook, Sony Michel, D’Onta Foreman, Eli Mitchell, Rashaad Penny

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp – this one is easy. You lock him in cash and probably your top choice in GPP lineups as well. We all know about the record(s) Kupp can achieve and this is a game the Rams want to win and will do so via the pass.
Christian Kirk – way too cheap against Ugo Amadi and the inside of this Seattle secondary.
Mike Evans – sub-5% owned WR1 for one of my favorite quarterbacks on this slate. Evans is also going for his 8th consecutive 1000-yard season.
AJ Brown / Brandin Cooks – AJ Brown is a freak of nature and someone we want to play when he’s healthy and in a solid matchup. Sunday brings us that exact situation with Terrance Mitchell and Desmond King in coverage. Brandin Cooks on the other side is an excellent run-back and fits the AETY Model’s favorite situation of being a slot receiver against the Titans.
Marvin Jones / Laquon Treadwell – same matchup we loved Zay Jones in last week. The only difference here is both of these wide receivers are more expensive than Zay Jones was last week and the whole Trevor Lawrence as the quarterback throwing the ball.

Honorable Mention: Deebo Samuel, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Michael Pittman Jr., Odell Beckham Jr., Cyril Grayson, Jakobi Meyers

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

George Kittle
Mark Andrews
John Bates
Rob Gronkowski
Zach Ertz
Tyler Higbee

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

Indianapolis Colts
Buffalo Bills
Washington Football Team
Cleveland Browns
Detroit Lions

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 17 – Cash Game and GPP Checkdown

StixPicks 3 years ago

written by StixPicks

Happy New Yeard to all and welcome back to the Week 17 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. As I had to postpone my family holiday plans last week with COVID, this will be a combined article so I can get back to spending time with my family.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Cash Game Pool:

Josh Allen – best matchup on the slate for a QB who’s averaged 32+ fantasy points per game over the past three weeks. Atlanta will likely have a hard time keeping it close, but the floor for Josh Allen is second-to-none in Week 17.
Jalen Hurts – A must-win game for the Eagles going up against a defeated Washington Football Team and their 27th ranked defense (DVOA). A tight-spread and divisional matchup that should offer us a lot of back and forth.
Trey Lance – If you need the chalk, salary relief play, Trey Lance is your guy. I don’t expect San Francisco to have a fantasy-point-friendly offensive attack here for Lance, but the price-tag and the rushing upside should be plenty to get him to 2.5x value, although I fear we may need 3-4x out of Lance to compete on this full slate.

GPP Pool:

Patrick Mahomes / Joe Burrow – one of the two games with a 50+ point-total and plenty of stacking options to go around. I always prefer Mahomes against a team with a low blitz rate and Cincinnati have one of the lowest blitz rates in the NFL. Burrow is obviously coming off of a legendary performance last week and should be pushed to pass early and often as the Chiefs continue their hot run on offense.
Matt Stafford – Quarterbacks against the Baltimore Ravens… need I say more? If there’s any bounce-back matchup for Stafford to get right, it’s this weekend in Baltimore.
Kyler Murray / Dak Prescott – highest total game on the board with little-to-no ownership. The AETY Model projects Dak Prescott to have the most pass attempts on this slate and volume is always something we’re interested in when rostering NFL DFS quarterbacks.

Honorable Mention: Taysom Hill, Tom Brady

NFL DFS Running Backs

Ronald Jones – as safe as they come for cash games and still a great piece for GPP lineups.
Jonathan Taylor – highest floor on the slate at the running back position.
David Montgomery – this guy’s usage rate is through the roof and is priced in the mid-tier against the Giants 27th ranked run defense (DVOA).
Darrel Williams – with CEH likely out, Darrel Williams is the auto-play value running back for a team with the second highest team total on the slate.
Alvin Kamara – Kamara under 5% owned against a weak run defense… I’m interested in GPP formats.
Devin Singletary – RB1 on the team with the highest implied team total on the slate against a Falcons’ 25th ranked run defense (DVOA).

Honorable Mention: Joe Mixon, Jaret Patterson (if Gibson is OUT), Sony Michel, Javonte Williams, Boston Scott

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Jaylen Waddle – Slot receivers against the Titans. Add in that Waddle is also the number one target on Miami and projected for an expected 33% target share… that is an excellent start for all NFL DFS formats.
Cooper Kupp – We all know about the potential record Cooper Kupp is enclosing on and it’s certain Matt Stafford does as well. I find it very improbable Kupp finds a way to get the record but in this matchup against the Ravens, Kupp will do everything he can to get the yardage or reception record and that would lead to a MONSTER fantasy outing.
CeeDee Lamb / Michael Gallup / Amari Cooper – Gallup will likely be the golden child for cash games at the low price-tag, but the upside of CeeDee Lamb and/or Amari Cooper in NFL DFS GPP builds.
Zay Jones – A cheap punt wide receiver who has been slowly coming on of late with back-to-back double digit fantasy outings and a ~21% target share in the month of December. The Colts’ roster is riddled with COVID right now and we know healthy or not, the weak spot of this defense is its’ secondary. As a touchdown underdog, we should see a nice gamescript for the Las Vegas Raiders passing game.
Ja’Maar Chase / Tee Higgins / Tyler Boyd – Although I don’t really love the recency bias on Tyler Boyd due to a broken play long touchdown, I want to get a piece of the Bengals offense in some way in my GPP lineups. At this point, I prefer to just take the savings on Tee Higgins over Ja’Maar Chase, but the Chiefs blitz A LOT and that should lead to the “X”, Ja’Maar Chase being the first read for Joe Burrow.
Christian Kirk – Too cheap for an inside, top-receiver against the Cowboys’ secondary.
DeVonta Smith – Excellent leverage off of what likely will be a Boston Scott chalk week. I love investing in teams that have something on the line this time of the year and DeVonta Smith should be in for a field day against an awful Washington secondary.
Braxton Berrios – only game in town with Eli Moore and Jamison Crowder OUT.
Courtland Sutton – Drew Lock’s #1 target in addition to Tim Patrick and Jerry Jeudy OUT.

Honorable Mention: Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Michael Pittman Jr.

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Travis Kelce
Rob Gronkowski
Dallas Goedert
Zach Ertz

Honorable Mention: John Bates, Cole Kmet, George Kittle

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Philadelphia Eagles
New England Patriots
Buffalo Bills
New Orleans Saints
Chicago Bears
Seattle Seahawks
Indianapolis Colts
Houston Texans – GPP only. Leverage off of a 25% owned Trey Lance.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 16 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Happy Holidays to all and welcome back to the Week 16 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! Another week of COVID-19 running wild, so PLEASE MAKE SURE YOU KEEP AN EYE ON YOUR LINEUPS ALL THE WAY UP UNTIL LOCK. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 14, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Lock in Cooper Kupp, lol.
Great week for value running backs.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Matthew Stafford ($6,700 DK / $7,900 FD)

Matt Stafford is arguably the safest quarterback on the slate as he’s surpassed the 20-point clip in all but four games this season. The Vikings’ defense is always one we like to pick on and the AETY Model agrees as Stafford grades out as the number one quarterback on this main slate, in addition to the Rams grading first in Adjusted Expected Team Totals.

Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

Ridiculously cheap on DraftKings as the algorithms did not get done in time before Hurts was announced the starter on Tuesday Night Football (that sounds weird). With this rushing upside in a cakewalk divisional matchup, the only reason I can think of to fade Hurts would be the double-digit favorite narrative of this game, in addition to a healthy Miles Sanders. With Jake Fromm likely to start for New York, I cannot find a gamescript to where the Giants keep this one close and Hurts’ pushing the pace.

Joe Burrow ($5,900 DK / $7,100 FD

Incredible value here this week against a Baltimore secondary we’ve been picking on for the past month (and the same one, if not worse now than when Burrow had a career day against them in Week 4). The same reason we loved Aaron Rodgers last week is the same reason I love Burrow this week. Baltimore’s defense is the definition of a pass funnel and both teams will be extremely motivated to win this football game, which should keep it going back and forth.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Patrick Mahomes (if Kelce/Hill are active)

NFL DFS Running Backs

Ronald Jones ($5,100 DK / $5,400 FD)

With Leonard Fournette on the IR, lock in Ronald Jones in your NFL DFS cash games.

Alexander Mattison ($6,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Stone cold lock on FanDuel with Dalvin Cook out. On DraftKings, I’ll personally look elsewhere, as I do not love to attack this Rams defensive line in a gamescript I think Stafford and the Rams control.

Josh Jacobs ($6,000 DK / $6,800 FD)

Way too cheap for the three-down running back with a top-three opportunity share, at home, against the 23rd ranked run defense (DVOA).

James Robinson ($5,900 DK / $8,200 FD)

A true, RB1 who just saw 84% of the snaps in Week 15 under run-heavy interim head coach, Darrel Bevell and a matchup against the worst defense in the NFL… Yea.

Justin Jackson ($4,200 DK / $5,400 FD)

With Austin Ekeler out, we will 100% see a committee at the running back position for the Chargers, but Justin Jackson will certainly lead the way. My concern here is how much we’ve been seeing Josh Kelley inside the 5-yard line, but at $4,200 on DraftKings, we only need 10+ fantasy points to hit value in our cash game lineups.

Honorable Mention: David Montgomery, Najee Harris, Cordarrelle Patterson

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Cooper Kupp ($9,100 DK / $9,800 FD)

Lock him in.

Antonio Brown ($4,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

On DraftKings, you lock him in your cash game lineup. With no Mike Evans and no Chris Godwin, this one is easy.

Diontae Johnson ($7,500 DK / $7,400 FD)

The only one close to Cooper Kupp’s target share on this slate is Mr. Diontae Johnson with an adjusted expected target share of 29%. The floor is just so safe for Diontae Johnson regardless of the matchup, but if the Chiefs’ get their studs back healthy, the pace of this game should setup nicely for another high-output for Diontae Johnson.

Ja’Maar Chase ($7,100 DK / $7,100 FD) or Tee Higgins ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

If we love Joe Burrow, we love his top targets in the passing game against this decimated Baltimore secondary.

DK Metcalf ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

Despite the low-scoring performances, DK Metcalf has still lead this Seahawks receiving core in target share since the return of Russell Wilson. The AETY Model absolutely loves the Seahawks’ passing attack this week, which is scary, but the Chicago Bears’ secondary is literally all second stringers or practice squad players (yes, I consider Kindle Vildor a true second-stringer). Metcalf’s air yards continue to climb and we’re just awaiting the massive breakout game for 2021. It should be this week.

Laquon Treadwell ($3,500 DK / $5,300 FD)

If you need a punt-play, look no further than Laquon Treadwell. With Laviska Shenault on the COVID-19 IR, Treadwell should get a decent bump up in targets (which have been coming at a consistent basis over the past few weeks, as is).

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Russell Gage, Josh Palmer (if you fade Justin Jackson, use Palmer’s value).

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

As we wait to hear more on the status of Travis Kelce, here are my top interests at the tight-end position. As of now, with all of this value, I’ll likely be prioritizing paying up at the tight-end spot…

– Mark Andrews
– Rob Gronkowski
– Kyle Pitts
– Dallas Goedert

Honorable Mention: Cole Kmet

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

New: NFL DFS Cash Game Lock Plays

Cooper Kupp
Ronald Jones
Antonio Brown (DK)
James Robinson (DK)
Josh Jacobs

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 14 – Cash Game Checkdown

Jon Love 3 years ago

written by Jon Love

Welcome back to the Week 14 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

We cannot miss on QB this week with Brady, Allen, Mahomes, Jackson, Prescott, Burrow, etc. all on the same slate!
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

As stated above, this is a loaded player pool at the Quarterback position and I don’t really see any reason to pay down unless you trust the rushing ability of Taysom Hill (Alvin Kamara is BACK) or Cam Newton, it’s a week to pay up to one of the below…

Top-Tier

– Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $8,500 FD) – Mahomes has been struggling a bit this year due to a horrid offensive line but is primed for a blow-up spot here against a Las Vegas defense that blitzes at the lowest rate in the NFL.
– Josh Allen ($7,800 DK / $8,800 FD) – both of these teams love to throw the football on a weekly basis… this game will be the definition of volume. Josh Allen also offers a significant floor with his rushing ability.

Mid-Tier

– Joe Burrow ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – way too cheap despite a slower-paced game likely against San Francisco. This price is ridiculous and a banged up Joe Mixon in a matchup against the 49ers 3rd ranked run defense (DVOA) should have Zac Taylor calling for a heavy pass-script with Joe Burrow and company.

Low-Tier

– Taysom Hill ($5,600 DK ONLY)
– Cam Newton ($5,400 DK ONLY)

Honorable Mention: Tom Brady, Dak Prescott

NFL DFS Running Backs

Austin Ekeler ($8,300 DK / $9,200 FD)

With no Keenan Allen, it’s very likely we see the Austin Ekeler chalk week. His floor is arguably second to nobody on this slate but the price-tag is quite high if we’re paying up at Quarterback. Regardless, the Giants’ run defense is awful, grading 31st in run defense DVOA. Ekeler should be heavily leaned on in the passing game and be the first option for this offense in the red-zone.

Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

Despite missing a couple of weeks, Alvin Kamara is going to be the focal point of this Saints’ offense with a banged up Taysom Hill, no Mark Ingram, and no Ty Montgomery (like that matters anyways). The Jets are the number one matchup for opposing running backs and the AETY Model loves Kamara’s touchdown equity in this game, as do the sportsbooks listing Kamara (-200) to score a touchdown. If Taysom can check the ball down to Kamara, we’re back on track with the fantasy play of Alvin Kamara we all know and love.

Josh Jacobs ($6,200 DK / $7,100 FD)

Jacobs will hardly leave the field on Sunday now that Kenyan Drake is out for the season and Jalen Richard on the COVID-IR, this is exactly what we should be looking for in a NFL DFS cash game build… Volume! Regardless of the way this game with a 48-point total shakes out, Josh Jacobs should be game-script proof with his pass-catching ability he’s shown lately. He’s simply way too cheap and will be a core play for me across all formats of NFL DFS this weekend.

Antonio Gibson ($6,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

As long as JD McKissic is out, Antonio Gibson is another damn-near lock button for DFS cash games. We know Washington will want to take the air out of the football in a matchup against a lethal Dallas offense and that will bode well for one of the hottest fantasy running backs in the league in Antonio Gibson.

Honorable Mention: Saquon Barkley, Javonte Williams (lock if MG3 is OUT), Leonard Fournette, D’onta Foreman (FD)

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

CeeDee Lamb ($7,200 DK / $7,800 FD)

One thing the AETY Model loves is picking on the inside of pass-funnel defenses that bleed fantasy production to slot receivers. Ah la, CeeDee Lamb in Week 14. The Washington Football Team give up an Adjusted Expected 15% more production to slot receivers than the average NFL pass-defense and there’s arguably no better slot receiver in the NFL than CeeDee Lamb (honorable mention Keenan Allen). Lamb should be in for a field day.

DJ Moore ($6,200 DK / $6,800 FD)

Our weekly “pick on Atlanta’s secondary” play of the week is obviously, DJ Moore. Moore is going to be insanely popular this week and for good reason, it’s Fabian Moreau, Richie Grant, and A.J. Terrell in coverage.

Mike Williams ($6,000 DK / $6,900 FD)

Assuming Mike Williams gets the nod to play on Sunday, he’s likely going to be the highest owned wide receiver on the slate and something you probably cannot avoid in NFL DFS cash games. I don’t love the matchup as James Bradberry usually does well against slower, big-body wide receivers, but the volume inside the red-zone will likely focus on Austin Ekeler and Mike Williams.

Jerry Jeudy ($5,600 DK / $6,300 FD)

A number one wide receiver priced like a mid-tier WR2 is something I’m always interested in when looking through my cash game player pool. The AETY Model grades out Jeudy as one of the top values on this slate and the matchup on the inside against converted safety, Will Harris is one Jeudy and Bridgewater will abuse when they drop back to pass.

Cole Beasley ($5,000 DK / $5,900 FD)

Cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate leads us to Cole Beasley. In addition, the AETY Model gives slot receivers a 12% boost in expected production against this Bucs’ secondary. As mentioned when discussing Josh Allen, all the Bills are going to do is throw the football and that puts a cheap Cole Beasley in a smash spot for NFL DFS cash games.

Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder (if Eli Moore is OUT), Stefon Diggs, Tyreek Hill, Josh Palmer (cheap punt who takes the slot for Keenan Allen), Hunter Renfrow, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Brandon Aiyuk (if Deebo Samuel is OUT), DK Metcalf

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

I’ll be paying up at Tight-End this week. The player pool is loaded with Tight-End studs and I simply will not play a punt Tight-End in cash games. Here’s my order of preference…

– Travis Kelce ($7,400 DK / $7,500 FD)
– George Kittle ($6,900 DK / $7,100 FD)
– Rob Gronkowski ($6,000 DK / $7,000 FD)
– Mark Andrews ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Honorable Mention: Austin Hooper, James O’Shaughnessy

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Los Angeles Chargers
Denver Broncos
New Orleans Saints
Seattle Seahawks
Cincinatti Bengals
Carolina Panthers
Buffalo Bills

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 13 – Cash Game Checkdown

Allan Fabrykant 3 years ago

written by Allan Fabrykant

Welcome back to the Week 13 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 13, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Loaded running back player pool! I am focusing on building my cash game lineup around 3 running backs and more of the mid-tier values at wide receiver.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tom Brady ($7,200 DK / $8,100 FD)

Despite the let-down in Week 12, Tom Brady enters this week as arguably the top cash-game quarterback option against the Atlanta Falcons’ secondary ranked 29th in pass defense DVOA. Hell, my best GPP lineup last week was with Trevor Lawrence going up against Atlanta. That is how much I despise this Falcons’ defense and will always look to attack them in NFL DFS. The Bucs have the highest implied team total on this slate and should have no issues putting up 30+ points on the road, in the dome. Brady is a staple for 250+ passing yards and multiple touchdown passes in this matchup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $8,200 FD)

Volume, volume, volume. Week in, week out you’ll hear me preach about volume when discussing cash game lineup builds and outside of Tom Brady, there is no one that compares to the passing volume of Justin Herbert. I love this game from multiple angles and with the second highest total on the slate, I feel quite confident in loading up on this matchup. The AETY Model grades out Herbert as the fourth highest value on the slate at the quarterback position putting him well in play for cash games, despite having a relatively high price-tag at $6,700 on DK and $8,200 on FD.

Honorable Mention: Matt Stafford, Joe Burrow

NFL DFS Running Backs

Jonathan Taylor ($9,200 DK / $10,500 FD)

Priced up like a healthy Derrick Henry! If you can afford him, you load up Jonathan Taylor as a 10-point favorite against Houston and their 25th ranked run defense (DVOA). I do not think he’s 100% necessary for cash as there are tons of great options at the running back position this week, but there’s arguably no one safer in addition to offering ridiculous upside, like Jonathan Taylor.

Joe Mixon ($8,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

Weekly spot of picking on the Chargers’ dead-last run defense in the NFL. I have him neck and neck with Jonathan Taylor as the RB1 this week with a significant discount to Taylor on both NFL DFS outlets.

Alexander Mattison ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD)

Incredibly surprised the DFS sites raised his price before knowing the true severity of Dalvin Cook’s injury, but price aside, the lead Minnesota running back is always an elite play in this outside-zone running scheme, as a touchdown-favorite against Detroit. He’d be an absolute lock in cash games if he were priced down like usual backup running backs moving into a lead role, but he’s still 100% cash viable in this high-volume running system.

Elijah Mitchell ($6,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

You all know my love for Elijah Mitchell on a normal week basis, now this is Elijah Mitchell without Deebo Samuel taking key snaps out of the backfield. The Seattle Seahawks run defense is stingy on paper but has been getting carved up of late, giving up over 140 rush yards to Washington Football Team’s pair of running backs last week. Washington has been a putrid running offense this year in terms of efficiency (25th in run offense DVOA) while the run game is the heart and soul of San Francisco’s offense (7th in run offense DVOA). The 49ers and Mitchell should have no problem putting up quality fantasy numbers like the Washington backs just did.

Antonio Gibson ($5,700 DK / $6,200 FD)

Way too cheap on both NFL DFS outlets with the assumption J.D. McKissic misses this game with a concussion. This game has one of the higher total on the slates, which in theory, provides Gibson with plenty of touchdown equity and the loss of McKissic should boost a heavy workload in the passing attack… which we finally saw glimpses of from Gibson in Week 12.

Jamaal Williams ($5,400 DK / $6,500 FD)

Not in love with Jamaal Williams by any means, but with no D’Andre Swift, we can assume this will lead to a heavy workload in Dan Campbell’s extremely run-heavy offense. I would not be surprised to see a bit more Jermar Jefferson this week, but Jamaal Williams will still get the lion-share of the carries/targets and demand 45% or more ownership in NFL DFS cash games.

UPDATE: Sony Michel is a fine cash play if Henderson is OUT.

Honorable Mention: James Conner, Sony Michel

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Chris Godwin ($6,600 DK / $7,600 FD)

If you cannot afford Tom Brady, get exposure to him through Chris Godwin. Yes, Godwin let many of you down last week, but we cannot play this game with extreme recency bias in any direction. Godwin is in an excellent spot for 5+ receptions and 75 or more receiving yards with significant touchdown equity.

Brandin Cooks ($5,900 DK / $6,700 FD)

Wide receivers against the Colts’ secondary… sound familiar? Yes? We do it every week and it more times than not will go in our favor. Cooks is a mid-tier priced, WR1 in a game where the Texans will be chasing points from the get-go. I never love to roster Cooks, but the price-tag and matchup screams to play him in cash, especially with 35% or more of the field likely to roster him. Rock Ya-Sin will get torched multiple times by Cooks’ elite route running.

Brandon Aiyuk ($5,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

Absolute lock for me in cash games this week as Brandon Aiyuk takes over the X spot in the 49ers’ wide receiving core while Deebo Samuel is out with injury. This will be one of the rare weeks I’m okay with “stacking” an offense in cash games, using Eli Mitchell and Brandon Aiyuk together. If I had to choose one, it’s Aiyuk.

Mike Williams ($5,700 DK / $6,500 FD)

Mike Williams is quietly coming back to life and 100% healthy, which we haven’t seen since he lit the fantasy football world on fire earlier in this 2021 season. We all know this offense runs through Keenan Allen and Austin Ekeler, but at this low of a price-tag and 20 targets in the past three games, Mike Williams is an extreme cash game value on a week many of you will look to pay up at running back. Do we even need to talk about the matchup on the outside with Eli Apple? Let’s go, Big Mike!

Honorable Mention: Keenan Allen, Tee Higgins, Ja’Maar Chase, Diontae Johnson, Hunter Renfrow, Terry McLaurin

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

This week is rather simple for me at tight-end. You’re either punting down to Foster Moreau with Darren Waller out with injury, or riding one of the higher priced tight-ends of:

– Logan Thomas
– Rob Gronkowski
– Mark Andrews

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Top-Tier
– Los Angeles Rams
– Indianapolis Colts

Mid-Tier
– Philadelphia Eagles
– Miami Dolphins

Punts
– Las Vegas Raiders
– New York Giants
– Chicago Bears
– Detroit Lions

3 years ago 0 comments

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NFL DFS Week 12 – Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 3 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Happy Thanksgiving and welcome back to the Week 12 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Tom Brady ($7,600 DK / $8,200 FD)

One of the main staples for us when creating a NFL DFS cash game lineup is projected volume. No one at the QB position has a higher expected passing volume on the Week 12 slate (or any slate for that matter) than Tom Brady, with a 41.75 expected pass attempts per game (from the AETY Model). We pick on the Colts’ secondary on a weekly basis and will go back to the well with Tom Brady in Week 12 as 30-45% of the field rosters Brady in cash game formats.

Cam Newton ($5,200 DK / $8,000 FD)

What a disaster by DraftKings for Newton’s pricing this week. If you need a pay-down option on DraftKings, look no further than Cam Newton. On FanDuel, I’d prefer Brady, but the rushing upside of Cam Newton paired with Miami’s struggling defense makes Newton cash-viable there as well.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Jalen Hurts

NFL DFS Running Backs

Christian McCaffrey ($9,000 DK / $9,700 FD)

McCaffrey is back and a full-go for the Carolina Panthers (over 70% of the offensive snaps and a 30% target share in the past two weeks), yet priced under $10K (which we are used to seeing with CMC) on both NFL DFS outlets. As much as I don’t like stacking in cash games, the public (on DK) is very likely to ride with both Cam Newton and Christian McCaffrey in cash and I personally don’t see an issue with that this week. It’s Christian McCaffrey.

James Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,600 FD)

Keeping up with the weekly theme of attacking the Falcons’ defense in any way possible will lead us to James Robinson. I prefer the price on DraftKings but still can get behind the idea of rostering Robinson on FanDuel this week as he grades out 5th this week on the AETY Model’s expected touchdown equity for running backs behind, Christian McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris, and AJ Dillon. Robinson should get a bit of a bump up in the passing game (which was already a nice floor) with Jamal Agnew on the IR.

AJ Dillon ($5,900 DK / $6,900 FD)

Assuming Aaron Jones is out again in Week 12, AJ Dillon offers us a valuable salary relief running back in one of the higher-total shootouts on the slate as Green Bay hosts the Los Angeles Rams. The Packers do not like to play up-paced and certainly do not want to get in a shoot-out with a healthy Rams offense so look for Dillon to provide fantasy football players with another high-floor, 15+ touch outing with a heavy workload in both the rushing and passing attack.

Miles Sanders ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Miles Sanders chalk week? What a time to be alive! As much as this may gross you out, Miles Sanders is finally primed up for a breakout game against the New York Giants and their 30th ranked run defense (DVOA). For those who don’t rewatch games and try to get a better understanding of a team’s offensive scheme, we’re here to assist. The Philadelphia Eagles have completely flipped the script on their offensive game plan that was averaging 34.6 pass attempts per game in Weeks 1-8, to a ridiculously heavy run approach featuring 19.5 pass attempts per game since Week 8.

Imagine that… Nick Sirianni figured out that it’s probably not a wise move to get into shootouts with Jalen Hurts as your quarterback. Sanders is simply way too cheap for a guy that will be featured in one of the NFL’s most run-heavy offenses now that Jordan Howard has been ruled out with injury.

Honorable Mention: Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, Darrell Henderson Jr., David Johnson (gross), Leonard Fournette

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Justin Jefferson ($8,300 DK / $8,100 FD)

What more do we need to see from Justin Jefferson? This Vikings’ passing attack lives off of Justin Jefferson productivity and the passing attack is how you beat San Francisco (22nd in pass defense DVOA / 3rd in run defense DVOA). The AETY Model grades Jefferson up with Cooper Kupp and Davante Adams and the only difference in my opinion between them, is price. Jefferson is way too cheap on FanDuel but also a great play at low ownership on DraftKings.

Deebo Samuel ($7,900 DK / $8,000 FD)

If you can afford him, you play him. Simple as that. Deebo Samuel is an absolute piece of fantasy gold that owns a 30% target share and also happens to be the second best running back on the 49ers roster. This afternoon game in San Francisco holds the second highest total on the slate and another matchup that is extremely pro-Deebo, facing off against Mack Alexander and Bashaud Breeland. With Eli Mitchell returning, we should see Deebo get back to his roots of a 30% target share and high red-zone equity.

Chris Godwin ($7,000 DK / $7,600 FD)

If you’re not using Tom Brady, use his highest-targeted wide receiver, Chris Godwin. Godwin’s matchup on the inside with Kenny Moore is a great one that favors the 4″ taller, Chris Godwin. Getting exposure to this game in some form is going to be important for me and the majority of the NFL DFS community.

Diontae Johnson ($6,600 DK / $7,100 FD)

At the lower end of the top-tier wideouts sits, Diontae Johnson. Johnson has been borderline matchup proof throughout the 2021 NFL season and this game projects to be a bit higher in pace than most on this slate. For whatever it’s worth, Ben Roethlisberger’s passing prop in Week 12 is one of the highest marks we’ve seen all year and he’ll look to hit Diontae Johnson early and often, especially when he’s lined up against Eli Apple.

Michael Pittman Jr. ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Assuming the Bucs’ get ahead early in this one, like they usually do besides that disaster of a game in Washington, the Colts’ will be forced to play up-paced and rely on a bit more than just Jonathan Taylor (especially if Vita Vea returns). Michael Pittman is a clear-cut WR1 and is priced in the mid-tier. As long as this gamescript goes to plan, the AETY Model loves Pittman’s chances at hitting the 3x value mark which is perfect for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

Laviska Shenault Jr. ($4,400 DK / $5,600 FD)

With no Jamal Agnew, we would think Laviska Shenault gets a significant tick-up in this Jacksonville offense (or lack-thereof). On the surface, Shenault’s snaps and usage rate continues to climb over the past few weeks and there’s now rumors Shenault will be utilized a bit more in the backfield. As gross as rostering a Jaguars’ pass-catcher is for NFL DFS cash game formats, the matchup against Atlanta and the low price-tag warrants heavy consideration for Laviska Shenault.

Honorable Mention: Jamison Crowder, Keenan Allen, Davante Adams, Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, Corey Davis, Dez Fitzpatrick

NFL DFS Tight-Ends

Honestly, the tight-end pool is rather weak on this Sunday main slate. In cash, here is my order of preference:

Evan Engram ($3,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Pat Freiermuth ($4,300 DK / $5,300 FD)

Rob Gronkowski ($4,400 DK ONLY)

George Kittle ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Philadelphia Eagles
Cincinnati Bengals
New York Jets
Houston Texans

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