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NFL Cash Games

NFL DFS Week 9 – Cash Game Checkdown

Welcome back to the Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Game Checkdown after and absolute SMASH Week 8 for the Win Daily Crew! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

In my opinion, cash games are extremely important for long-term bankroll building and sustainability. I’ll consistently use at least 50% of my weekly bankroll towards cash games. It’s not sexy, but it works and allows me to take big shots in high dollar GPPs.

Long story short, if we hit our cash games each week, the worst we can do is break-even (not counting your GPP shots with the remaining 50% of your weekly bankroll). The weeks you hit both, you smash. The weeks you miss your GPPs, your cash game lineup will carry you. It’s my job to ensure you always hit those cash games.

If you haven’t yet, I would strongly advise giving my NFL DFS Strategy article I published this offseason before diving into the 2020 NFL DFS season. If you have any questions or would like some further help when building your lineups, please do not hesitate to reach out to me directly on Twitter. Without further ado, let’s do this thing!

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 9, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Now that the Bye weeks are here, the player pool is a bit more narrow. There are a still ton of great value plays at the Wide Receiver and Running Back positions this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk-Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Lamar Jackson (40%), Josh Allen (25%), Austin Ekeler (45%), Ezekiel Elliott (45%) Myles Gaskin (35%), Nick Chubb (25%), Amari Cooper (30%), Tee Higgins (40%), Jaylen Waddle (35%), Jarvis Landry (35%), Dan Arnold (25%), Darren Waller (20%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Josh Allen ($8,200 DK / $9,000 FD)

Like last week, Allen is arguably the safest choice on the quarterback board despite another week of blowout potential traveling to Jacksonville to face the league’s worst defense… 32nd in overall DVOA and 32nd in pass defense DVOA. Even with a sub-par passing game last week, Allen smashed his value projection with his ability to run the football and find the end-zone. He’s expensive and there are a lot of other good plays on this slate, but Allen is still the cream of the crop for safety in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Lamar Jackson ($7,300 DK / $8,300 FD)

Lamar Jackson is the top NFL DFS Cash Game play on the board this week in terms of overall value and the extremely high floor. The Vikings’ defense is a bit banged up and have really struggled against run-heavy teams of late. With a current total of 50-points, look for a lot of back and forth and plenty of red-zone opportunities for Jackson to light up the fantasy scoreboards.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD)

Elliott is the number one running back on the AETY Model this week in terms of overall value and when he’s priced at $7K, that is notable. I’m locking in Elliott to my cash game lineup and will be expecting a high-floor and potential two touchdown game against a Denver defense graded 27th in run defense DVOA in addition to trading away Von Miller.

Austin Ekeler ($7,900 DK / $9,000 FD)

As long as Ekeler is healthy, the usage is through the roof. I don’t love this matchup as much as I do for the Chargers’ pass catchers, but Ekeler is arguably the leading wide receiver candidate of late, leading the team in targets over the past two games. With a game total at 50 points and projected for a very high pace (in terms of total snaps), Ekeler is in a fine spot to get to 2.5x value on that high salary.

Myles Gaskin ($5,800 DK / $6,100 FD)

As much as it pains me to write-up Gaskin in a cash article, here he is coming into the week with a projected ownership over 30% (likely closer to 50% in cash games). Gaskin is only averaging around 50% of the rush attempts in this Miami offense, but he’s certainly very active in the passing game. Having said that Gaskins’ receiving upside tends show in games where the Dolphins are trailing off the jump.

I do think Houston will keep this game close so that worries me a bit for Gaskin’s true upside, but at this ownership, it’s likely safer to eat the savings Gaskin offers and move on with your build. If Gaskin is not your cup of tea, let’s go right back to Eli Mitchell for the salary relief running back.

Devontae Booker ($5,900 DK / $6,300 FD)

As long as Saquon Barkley is out, Devontae Booker’s price in comparison to total opportunity share and usage doesn’t add up. The Raiders/Giants game is projected to be very high in pace and a back-and-forth game with little to no defense leaving Booker as a borderline gamescript proof running back who is locked in for 18+ touches.

Honorable Mention: Eli Mitchell, Alvin Kamara, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Wide Receivers

Tyreek Hill ($7,900 DK / $8,500 FD)

With Aaron Rodgers out this week, Davante Adams obviously took a slight hit on the AETY Model which leads into Tyreek Hill jumping up the model ranks in terms of leading the slate in expected target-share for Week 9. The pace in this game is also due to take a solid hit with no Rodgers, but Tyreek Hill is still the clear wide receiver one on this slate in terms of safety an upside.

Deebo Samuel ($7,800 DK / $8,000 FD)

Deebo has a target share of over 35% since Week 5, it’s utterly ridiculous and I don’t see that changing while Jimmy Garoppolo is under center. The top of the cash game wide receiver board is Tyreek Hill or Deebo Samuel. You cannot go wrong with either.

Keenan Allen ($6,700 DK / $7,000 FD)

If I am not using Ekeler, Keenan Allen will be a priority for me in my cash game lineup. The middle of this Philadelphia secondary is something I always want target in DFS and will continue to do so this week in an up-paced game and a great bounce-back spot for this Chargers’ passing attack. Avonte Maddox will have his hands full with Allen all day long on Sunday.

Amari Cooper ($5,700 DK / $6,900 FD)

The price on DraftKings is laughable for Amari Cooper. With CeeDee Lamb banged up with a sprained ankle and the likely return of Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper is totally in play for cash games against a declining Denver secondary.

Tee Higgins ($5,300 DK / $6,600 FD)

Simply way too cheap on DraftKings. Don’t look now but Higgins is quietly leading the Bengals in targets over the past three weeks and continues to have a prominent role in the red-zone. Ja’Maar Chase is still the top dog here and will be for the foreseeable future, but take the savings on Higgins and run.

Jarvis Landry ($5,100 DK / $5,900 FD)

With Odell Beckham Jr. in limbo, Jarvis Landry is the only game in town on this Cleveland receiving depth chart. He’s never going to be a sexy play, but the volume will be there for Landry with an affordable price-tag and a plus matchup against Mike Hilton.

Honorable Mention: Stefon Diggs, Jaylen Waddle, Kadarius Toney, Mecole Hardman, Hunter Renfrow

NFL DFS Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

It’s still Travis Kelce and a plus matchup against a Green Bay defense ranked 25th against the tight-end. Look for the Chiefs to have a huge bounce-back game offensively here. With the low ownership, I will probably fade in cash and use as a priority in some GPP lineups.

Mike Gesicki ($4,900 DK / $6,500 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings for a zone-killing, slot receiver with a tight-end positional tag. With DeVante Parker OUT, Gesicki’s target share is going to have a floor of 20%. The bookmakers love Gesicki even more than the AETY Model does this week with props sitting around five catches for 60 yards.

Dallas Goedert ($4,500 DK / $6,200 FD)

He’s not Travis Kelce, but the AETY Model projects his target share to be extremely similar than the top tight end in football. Granted, the Philadelphia offense is nowhere near as pass-happy as Kansas City, but Goedert should be priced up around $5,500 on DraftKings. Excellent value here with Goedert and a quality matchup against the Chargers who grade 29th in DVOA against opposing tight-ends.

Albert Okwuegbunam ($2,600 DK / $4,500 FD)

Dallas is dead last against opposing tight-ends (32nd in DVOA). With Noah Fant out, take the freesquare in Albert “O” like we did last week with Dan Arnold.

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller

NFL DFS Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

Buffalo Bills

New Orleans Saints

Dallas Cowboys

New England Patriots

San Francisco 49ers (if Kyler is OUT)

Kansas City Chiefs

Cleveland Browns

Make sure you follow me on Twitter at @stixpicks and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Model powered by AETY and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate.

3 years ago 0 comments

NFL DFS Week 3 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Solid output for our Week 2 NFL DFS Cash Games (despite a Cooper Kupp chalk-fade). That’s on me, there was very little reason to fade Kupp at that ownership number, I won’t let that happen again. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 3, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Chris Carson (30%), Derrick Henry (25%), Chris Godwin (30%), Cooper Kupp (30%), Keenan Allen (30%), Mark Andrews (20%), Tyler Higbee (15%), Marvin Jones (30%)
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,800 DK / $8,400 FD)

Not much to say about Lamar Jackson going up against an awful Detroit defense that ranks 32nd in pass defense DVOA and 29th in run defense DVOA. Baltimore is atop of the Adjusted Expected Team Totals tool, so we know we want some exposure to them. There’s no reason not to use the guy who makes this offense go, in Lamar Jackson. In GPPs, there is some serious blowout concern here, but it’s all systems go for a Jackson-led cash build.

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

What more do you need to see from Wilson and this new offense under Shane Waldron? Russ is cooking and it won’t stop this week against a Minnesota secondary giving up over 290 passing yards per game and a total over 56 points.

Justin Fields ($5,200 DK / $6,500 FD)

Well, it’s time for Justin Fields to make his starting debut for the Chicago Bears and I for one, cannot be more excited. I am not expecting a massive coming out party or that he will lead this Bears’ unit to a NFC North championship, but for fantasy purposes, Fields is going to be fun to watch.

The AETY Model projects Fields for over 230 yards passing and 40 yards rushing. With adding a conservative red-zone rushing share, Fields would be a lock for 2.5x value as is. Add in a conservative passing touchdown share and Fields skyrockets to over a 4x value on DraftKings and 3x value on FanDuel. By no means is he “safe”, but at this price, he allows us to jam high-floor, high-upside studs to build a strong, NFL DFS cash game lineup. I’m likely to bite the bullet here and just pray the Bears’ offensive line can keep him upright for four quarters.

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert (LOVE HIM IF YOUR BUILD ALLOWS)

Running Backs

*UPDATE: Alexander Mattison is now in play with Dalvin Cook doubtful

Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,700 FD)

If I am not rolling with Russ, I want to do everything I can to go back to Chris Carson, who’s going to be incredibly popular this week against Minnesota in a game with a total in the upper 50’s! We don’t need him to be incredibly efficient in this gamescript, we just need the guaranteed red-zone work (as we saw last week) for Carson to hit value. I’m fine with you eating the chalk here in cash against a Vikings’ defense giving up over 125 rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

We saw a MASSIVE uptick in Saquon Barkley’s snap share from Week 1 (~47%) to Week 2 (~84%). Barkley is back in the three-down, feature back role and takes on a Dean Pees’ blitz heavy offense that is currently being torched by opposing backs and ranks 27th in run defense DVOA. We won’t get Barkley at this low of a price point again in 2021 so now’s your time.

P.S. what in the hell was FanDuel thinking when making his price-tag?

Mike Davis ($5,100 DK / $5,700 FD)

There’s nothing sexy about journeyman, Mike Davis, but this dude’s adjusted expected opportunity share is top-10 for NFL backs in Week 3. The Giants’ defense ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and we all know how bad the Falcons’ defense is as a whole… there will be plenty of back and forth in this game leaving Mike Davis as a borderline-lock candidate for 2.5x value, which is all we need in our cash builds.

Honorable Mention: Derrick Henry, Ty’son Williams, Austin Ekeler

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

*UPDATE: Adding Marvin Jones to the cash pool. Player prop of 5 catches and 62+ yards is too hard to ignore at that price/ownership.

Cooper Kupp ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD), Chris Godwin ($6,100 DK / $7,300 FD), Robert Woods ($5,700 DK / $6,100 FD)

I hate listing this many players for one section of a write-up, but plain and simple: you want to get exposure to this Bucs/Rams game with a total sitting at 56 points. With Antonio Brown likely out, Chris Godwin should see a lot more snaps outside (as opposed to the slot) and avoid Jalen Ramsey a bit more than usual.

For the Rams’ situation, I honestly just prefer whoever is cheaper (Robert Woods), unless you can afford Cooper Kupp. With Murphy-Bunting now on the IR, both of these Rams’ wideouts will get their fair share of Ross Cockrell in coverage… advantage Rams. It’s hard to avoid the hot hand in Cooper Kupp right now even though I tell myself there’s still nothing special to this kid. The Rams sure as hell aren’t going to be very effective on the ground against this Bucs’ stout defensive line.

Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,700 FD)

Stefon Diggs has had a quiet start to the season but look for that to change this weekend with a flurry of plus-matchups for Diggs going up against this Washington secondary. For a guy with an expected 29% target share, he should be priced up over $8,000 on both sites. Josh Allen and company are due for a big game and with the uptempo pace both of these teams like to play in… it should be this week.

Keenan Allen ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

Another game we are going to want to attack is clearly the Chiefs/Chargers and there’s no safer cash play in this game at the receiver position than Keenan Allen. Another massive total and a gamescript that favors Herbert throwing the ball 38+ times. I absolutely love Keenan Allen at sub $7K who is a mortal lock for 2.5x value in PPR formats.

Justin Jefferson ($7,200 DK / $7,400 FD)

Targeting wide receivers against Seattle’s secondary is going to be something we do early and often in NFL DFS throughout all of 2021. Tre Flowers is in for a long, long day here trying to stay with the route running extraordinaire, Justin Jefferson and his 26% expected target share this week.

Marquise Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,600 FD)

Simply put, Detroit’s secondary is horrid and decimated by injuries. Hollywood Brown is 100% healthy and being heavily utilized in an uber-efficient offense that leads our Totals Tool in expected offense this week. Take advantage of the pricing error and play the hot hand in Brown who currently has a ~30% target share in this offense!

*UPDATE: Moving to Tyler Boyd or Ja’Marr Chase in cash due to no Tee Higgins. One of them will be locked into my cash lineup. As of now, I prefer Boyd on DraftKings, Chase on FanDuel*

Honorable Mention: Tyler Boyd, Chase Claypool, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Ja’Marr Chase, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,200 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Travis Kelce. The DFS community are going to have a hard time paying up for Kelce this week but he’s always the top tight-end cash play despite a tough matchup against Derwin James. No matter the coverage, gamescript, Kelce gets it done for us and always has multiple mis-matches to exploit in zone coverage.

Darren Waller ($7,400 DK / $7,400 FD)

Way too cheap on FanDuel, almost an auto-play there against a Dolphins’ secondary that struggles immensely against opposing tight-ends who run the majority of their routes out of the slot.

T.J. Hockenson ($5,200 DK / $6,300 FD)

Similar to Waller on FanDuel, Hockenson’s price is criminally low on DraftKings. This dude is the #1, #2, and #3 target in this Detroit offense. This is a rather tough matchup against the Ravens who will certainly scheme to double-team him, but if we’re just looking for 10+ points out of the tight-end position, we can’t overlook Hockenson.

*UPDATE: With me taking away Marquise Brown, I’m making Mark Andrews or Tyler Higbee a lock (if I cannot get up to Kelce)*

Honorable Mention: Tyler Higbee, Mark Andrews, Jared Cook

Defense / Special Teams

Denver Broncos
Pittsburgh Steelers
Buffalo Bills
Baltimore Ravens
Las Vegas Raiders
Arizona Cardinals
Washington Football Team
Cincinnati Bengals

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 2 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

Welcome back NFL! Helluva, Week `1 effort across the board and loved to see all of the Win Daily Members’ screenshots of both NFL DFS GPP hits and cash games! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 1, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

Again, the player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at the Running Back position this week, which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Cash Game Chalk Talk (Estimate Ownership in Cash): Justin Herbert (likely 30%), Najee Harris (30%), Chris Carson (25%), Ezekiel Elliott (20%), Keenan Allen (40%), Cooper Kupp (20%), CeeDee Lamb (20%), Noah Fant (20%)… I’m likely fine with all of the above besides Cooper Kupp.
PEOPLE WILL BE LOADING UP ON DAL/LAC exposure. DO NOT FADE THIS GAME, but you do not need to full on stack it in cash.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,200 DK / $8,700 FD)

Kyler Murray is likely to be a staple in this article on a weekly basis. The QB1 from Week 1 is back in another matchup he should be able to exploit with both his legs and arms. Minnesota’s secondary (outside of Patrick Peterson who played decently in Cincinnati) is still trash and ranks in the bottom ten in pass defense DVOA.

Murray is yet again the top-rated quarterback according to the AETY Model and if you can afford him, you should feel good about him anchoring your cash game lineup.

Justin Herbert ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD)

Mr. Chalk of Week 2 and AETY Model approved as the #3 overall projected point-scorer from the Quarterback position and also the #3 overall quarterback value. It’s very likely over 50% of the DraftKings field selects Herbert as their cash game quarterback and probably 20-30% on FanDuel will do the same.

With DeMarcus Lawrence recently put on the IR, the Cowboys are going to have a very difficult time establishing a pass rush leaving Herbert and a loaded core of pass-catchers to torch this Cowboys’ secondary who gave up nearly 400-yards to Tom Brady a week ago. I’m likely to eat the chalk here and enjoy the show with a tight-spread and a 55-point total.

Honorable Mention: Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($8,800 DK / $8,800 FD)

In terms of “top-tier” running backs, it’s hard to not love Alvin Kamara as your feature back in NFL DFS Cash Games this week… especially on FanDuel at that price-tag. The AETY Model absolutely loves Kamara’s expected usage this week grading him with an expected 80% total opportunity share (passing target share and rushing opportunity share). That is second to just Christian McCaffrey (who obviously is always in-play for cash games).

The Panthers’ run-defense looked incredibly stout last week using their “big-nickel” package often with three safeties on the field to stop the run, but that was against the New York Jets. I don’t expect a ceiling game from Kamara here, but the usage alone makes him a sexy cash game play.

Chris Carson ($6,100 DK / $6,700 FD)

I absolutely loved what I saw from this new Seahawks’ offense ran by Shane Waldron. I had mentioned Russell Wilson in every single article I wrote last week expecting a blow-up game with the Waldron system and he did not disappoint. Sure, the pace of that game was lower than expected but this Seahawks’ offense was the definition of efficient (ranking 9th in rushing DVOA and 5th in passing).

As much as I love the Cowboys/Chargers matchup, we need to get some exposure to this Seattle game with a current total sitting at 54 points. Carson is the most affordable piece of real-estate in that game and also has zero competition behind him now that Rashaad Penny is set to miss multiple weeks with injury.

Najee Harris ($6,100 DK / $6,100 FD)

Ultimate freesquare on FanDuel with that price-tag and likely a field-favorite on DraftKings as well. If there’s any chalk running back I’m afraid to roster in cash this week, it’s Najee Harris. The expected usage rate is incredibly high (right behind Kamara), but this run-blocking scheme from a weak Pittsburgh offensive line leaves much to be desired. That being said, Najee Harris played 100% of the offensive snaps for the Steelers in Week 1… that is hard to ignore at an affordable salary for cash game builds.

Joe Mixon ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

The Bears defense is brutal and Joe Mixon is another Kamara-Harris type in terms of rarely going to leave the field. My main focus for my cash game running backs is overall touches and Mixon is a guy that will finish top-5 likely every week in running back touches (he had 33 of them last week). I expect little-to-no defense on both sides of this game and that should bode well for Joe Mixon against a borderline practice squad caliber defense Chicago is rolling out.

Damien Harris ($5,400 DK / $6,200 FD)

What a showing for Damien Harris in his season debut as the featured back of the New England Patriots compiling over 115 all-purpose yards. As a six-point favorite in a low-total against a Jets’ defense that surrendered over 4.7 yards per carry to McCaffrey last, I’m fine with taking a little bit of a risk on Harris for the sake of salary relief. He’s got a nice all-purpose yard prop of over 90 yards and is -125 to score a touchdown. When in doubt, I’ll trust Vegas here (and the AETY Model agrees) that Harris finds a way to provide well over 2.5x DraftKings value on this price-tag.

Honorable Mention: Ezekiel Elliott, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Eli Mitchell, Nick Chubb

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,400 FD)

All hail, Keenan Allen this week against the Dallas Cowboys. We touched on this matchup that is going to provide fantasy fireworks from the second the ball is kicked off and there’s no who provides a higher-floor in that game than Keenan Allen. Fifteen targets is very well a conservative projection for Allen in this game. If you’re not playing Herbert (hell, even if you are), ensure Keenan Allen finds a way to your cash game build as he will likely have Jourdan Lewis in a pretzel all game long.

CeeDee Lamb ($6,400 DK / $6,800 FD)

Similar to Keenan Allen, everyone in the industry is going to rush to roster CeeDee Lamb due to the savings off of Amari Cooper. Again, you want exposure to both sides of the ball in this game but I do not think this is a home run spot for CeeDee Lamb as he’ll likely see a lot of Chris Harris in coverage (my personal favorite cornerback). Despite the old age, Harris can still ball out.

Having said that, the expected volume for this Dallas passing attack is far to0 great to fear a relatively bad matchup for CeeDee Lamb. As much as it’s a bad matchup for CeeDee, it’s also bad matchup for Chris Harris… CeeDee is an excellent route runner and will win his fair share on Sunday. Chris Harris is out. CeeDee eats!

Allen Robinson ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

According to the AETY Model, Allen Robinson is the number one mis-priced (on DraftKings) wide receiver in regards to his overall projection. Allen Robinson currently sits as the #10 overall wide receiver this week but priced as the 17th “best” wide receiver on DraftKings.

I don’t like him as much on FanDuel due to the high PPR floor, but I made a living off of using those pricing discrepancies the AETY Model spits out when projections are completed. Robinson is projected for a 30% target share on a team that should throw the ball close to 40 times. Pair that volume with the trio of below-average cornerbacks he’ll see from Cincinnati, Robinson is as safe as they come this week. Between you and I, Mixon and Robinson is one of my favorite “mini game stacks” on the slate this week.

If you’d rather use Ezekiel Elliott for your Dallas exposure (and not rostering CeeDee because we do not want to full on stack in cash), Allen Robinson is an EXCELLENT cash game pivot and will be a low-owned difference maker in NFL DFS Cash Games.

Devonta Smith ($5,400 DK / $5,600 FD)

Devonta Smith is a route running extraordinaire and came out with a bang last week in his NFL debut against the Falcons. He is clearly top wideout on this roster and should be priced in the low $6K range on both fantasy outlets. We need the salary relief this week and there’s likely no higher overall value than Devonta Smith against a banged-up 49ers’ secondary who just lost Jason Verrett for the season and currently has Emmanuel Moseley not participating in practice.

All in all, this 49ers’ defense is nothing like it was over the past couple of years and Devonta Smith will have matchups to exploit all game long.

Honorable Mention: Ja’Marr Chase, DeAndre Hopkins, Tyler Boyd (DK), Marquez Callaway, AJ Brown, DJ Moore

Tight Ends

*If you can afford Darren Waller or Kittle, you play them in cash. They’re listed as honorable mention due to the lineup build this article likely leaves you with… as you’ll notice, there isn’t a lot of room for Waller/Kittle on that (unless you’re on FanDuel) build but if you can find a way, you play one of them!

Kyle Pitts ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)

Oh how the mighty in ownership have fallen. Just a week ago this guy was 50% owned in cash games and is now likely to be around the 10% range. I will never understand how people will just bail on someone after one week. Pitts led the Falcons in targets and also was heavily involved in the red zone.

If you’re looking into the real metrics that matter here (and this should surprise no one), Pitts was only used to pass block 5% of the time… that my friends is incredibly valuable for a fantasy tight end. This dude lines up all over the field and his price is still soft enough to where we should all be licking our chops to roster Pitts this week as they’re going to be play catch-up early and often against Tampa Bay who is currently a 13-point favorite, lol.

Pitts is likely to finish this game with 10+ targets and on a slate with no Travis Kelce, I’m locking him in.

Noah Fant ($4,200 DK / $5,700 FD)

Just simply way too cheap on DraftKings and close to a playable value (in terms of optimal cash game builds) on FanDuel. With Jerry Juedy out for quite some time, there are a lot of targets to go elsewhere in this offense. I don’t think this will be a massive bump up in Fant’s already strong workload, but any bump up in target share is noteworthy. My only concern here is we will still see a lot of “Albert O” in the red-zone.

Dallas Goedert ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD)

Goedert is clearly the TE1 in Philadelphia and one of their most important skill position players as he logged over 73% of the Eagles’ offensive snaps last week. The AETY Model loves this spot for Goedert going against a lot of Cover 3 that San Francisco is likely to run. Assuming Jalen Hurts has to take what the defense gives him, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert should

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, Jared Cook, Cole Kmet, George Kittle

Defense / Special Teams

Tampa Bay
New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Cleveland Browns
Arizona Cardinals
Carolina Panthers
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Jets

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL Premium

NFL DFS Week 1 Cash Game Checkdown

brgrewe@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by brgrewe@gmail.com

My oh my, football is finally here! It’s NFL DFS Season. The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually fine to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter @stixpicks to discuss further.

The player pool is huge this week. There are a ton of great value plays at every position which should allow us to come up with multiple, cash-optimal builds.
Chalk Talk: Marquez Callaway is likely to be 50% owned in cash games (if not more)… I’m OKAY if you want to just take that freesquare, but how the hell is a guy 50% owned just off of a nice training camp, lol.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,600 DK / $8,400 FD)

A little too expensive on FanDuel with a full slate of games, but it’s hard not to love Kyler Murray in a projected shootout with a total currently sitting at 52.5 points (highest on the slate). Murray gets it done with both his legs and his passing ability (we sure hope this offense improved over the off-season) and has an incredible matchup against a Titans’ defense that ranked third to last in pass defense DVOA.

We do not need to dive into actual metrics and AETY Model analysis to support Kyler Murray being in play.

Russell Wilson ($7,000 DK / $7,800 FD)

No lies, Russell Wilson is by far my favorite play on this slate (GPP and Cash). This offense was a massive let down towards the end of last season and the NFL DFS public loves to have a long memory. With the acquisition of linemen, Gabe Jackson, I expect a significant bump up in the overall play in this Seattle offensive line.

The total in this matchup with the Colts against a sub-par secondary that Russ should carve, currently sits at 49 points (opened at 52). The AETY Model absolutely loves Russel in this spot projecting him for 277 passing yards and just about two touchdowns (in addition to some rushing upside). That is plentiful for a cash game lineup.

Jalen Hurts ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

The AETY Model absolutely loves Jalen Hurts in Atlanta this week (current total of 48.5 points) projecting him for 251 passing yards, 1.8 passing touchdowns, and just about 40 rushing yards. That added bonus with the legs is exactly what gives Hurts a nod for our cash game lineups. In addition, our boy Stoweby is a defensive scheme genius and is calling for Dean Pees’ new Atlanta defense to bring a lot of defensive-back blitzing to the table this year… Can you say Jalen Hurts naked-bootleg touchdown run?

Honorable Mention: Patrick Mahomes, Sam Darnold, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,100 DK / $9,400 FD)

It’s the feature back in one of the best outside-zone run scheme offenses in the NFL who the AETY Model projects to rush for over 110 yards and have 20+ yards receiving… that’s a monster game with or without a touchdown. Cincinnati ‘s run defense was quite suspect last year (21st in run defense DVOA) and likely got worse over the off-season. It’s all systems go if you want to pay up for a stud RB that’s not named Christian McCaffrey.

James Robinson ($6,400 DK / $5,900 FD)

A 3-down back against the nut-worst run defense (and overall defense) in the NFL. On FanDuel, Robinson should be a stone-cold lock at that price and he’s more than cash viable on DraftKings.

Joe Mixon ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD)

I’m only really interested to play Mixon in cash on DraftKings but he’s certainly in play on FanDuel as well. Mixon may very well lead this slate in touches and that’s hard to ignore at this low DraftKings price-tag for my cash game build.

Antonio Gibson ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)

Way too cheap on DraftKings for “Christian McCaffrey Jr.” who’s supposedly going to be the three down back we all saw signs of in 2020. This kid is super-talented and should have a 15+ fantasy-point outing (over 2.5x value) against a Chargers’ defense that ranked 26th in run defense DVOA and should struggle in all aspects outside of the pass-rush again in 2021.

Honorable Mention: Raheem Mostert, Mike Davis, Chase Edmonds (DK Only)

NFL DFS Cash Game Wide Receivers

*All of these superstars at the top of the salary chain are in play and qualify as cash viable (Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Calvin Ridley, DeAndre Hopkins)

Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD)

Great price, tough matchup. Stefon Diggs is arguably the best route runner in the NFL in a pass-happy, up-tempo offense and one of the only pass-catchers in the AETY Model database that projects for a 30% target share on a weekly basis. The expected volume outweighs any matchup concerns I’ll have with Stefon Diggs at these price-points.

DK Metcalf ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)

ALL THE WAY IN on DK Metcalf this week going up against aging Xavier Rhodes and T.J. Carrie. The AETY Model absolutely loves Russell Wilson and this Seattle passing attack, so let’s capitalize on one of the best talents in the NFL with Metcalf. He will score a touchdown or two in this matchup and will certainly be the headline of my GPP article this weekend.

Corey Davis ($4,900 DK / $5,800 FD)

With the player pool I’m recommending at the running-back position, it’s going to be tough to play more than one of these top-tier wideouts, so I’m going to buy into the early chemistry between rookie Zach Wilson and his number-one receiver, Corey Davis. Look for this new passing attack to take advantage of rookie, Jaycee Horn and average cover-corner, Donte Jackson.

Jerry Jeudy ($4,800 DK / $5,500 FD)

Way too cheap for one of the best young route runners who’s projected to lead his team in targets. I don’t love this Broncos offense, but they will be plenty efficient to put Jeudy in a position to hit over 2.5x value (currently projected for 13.50 DraftKings NFL DFS points).

Tee Higgins ($4,700 DK / $6,000 FD)

Higgins is likely going to lead this slate in wide receiving ownership outside of Marquez Callaway and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk in a game that is projected to be high in pace with sub-par defensive showings. I don’t love this spot for Higgins as much as the public does (I honestly prefer Tyler Boyd), but at this ownership, Higgins won’t make or break your cash lineup’s ability to find the pay-line.

Terrance Marshall ($3,000 DK / $4,900 FD)

Stone-cold lock for me on DraftKings. Sam Darnold has a strong history of abusing slot receivers with targets and the rookie from LSU is likely the best slot receiver Darnold will have in his NFL career. This is an incredible matchup for Marshall and the AETY Model has no doubt that Marshall gets over 2.5x value in his NFL debut.

Honorable Mention: Marvin Jones, Marquez Callaway, Michael Pittman Jr.

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($8,300 DK / $8,500 FD)

It’s Travis Kelce, do we need to say more? I really want to make it a priority to get one share of a Kansas City Chief contributor in my cash build and I can’t think of a safer play for that narrative than Travis Kelce. Don’t get too cute, play him or eat the chalk-value with the player below.

Kyle Pitts ($4,400 DK / $6,000 FD)

Take the savings on DraftKings if you cannot afford Kelce. I know we’ve never seen him play a full NFL game yet, but like Terrance Marshall, the price is just too good to pass up. With his high projected ownership, we do not need a whole lot from Kyle Pitts.

Defense / Special Teams

I’ll rarely write about defense and special teams in the Cash Game Checkdown. I believe it’s much more important to lock in your key skill position players and hopefully a solid defense fits your build. Prices considered, here’s who I’ll take a look at:

New England Patriots
Denver Broncos
Washington Football Team
Minnesota Vikings
Miami Dolphins
Buffalo Bills

Good luck to all!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 12 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 11 NFL DFS Cash Games! I hope everyone enjoyed their Thanksgiving and are ready to get right back at it for a solid Week 12 slate (without a lot of terrible games that are easy fades and just a few up-paced games where we really want to invest). Let’s go.

I’ve been under the weather recently so won’t be writing a whole lot about each player. Just DM on Twitter/Discord this week if you need to talk over your build with someone.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 12, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
CHALK REPORT: Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Nyheim Hines, James Robinson, Brian Hill, Justin Jefferson, Stefon Diggs, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce, and Darren Waller ALL project to be incredibly high in cash game ownership (over 40%). I think we’ll likely want to lock in AT LEAST FOUR or FIVE of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Patrick Mahomes ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – Always my favorite quarterback play on any slate. There’s really no one as safe and as consistent as Patrick Mahomes. I don’t think he’s a must play in cash this week, but I do think Travis Kelce is. Use one or the other or a combo of the two in your NFL DFS cash game lineup.
Josh Allen ($7,600 DK / $8,600 FD) – By far the highest owned quarterback on this slate in a high total game against a Chargers’ defense that will be missing both Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram. Chris Harris does return, but I don’t think this Chargers’ defense can stop a nosebleed these days, it’s wheels up for Allen and the Bills.
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,500 DK / $7,400 FD) – Hello, sweet, sweet savings (on DraftKings). Fitzpatrick gets the nod as Tua was recently ruled out with injury and also will be missing any threat of a quality running attack with no Salvon Ahmed or Myles Gaskin. This matchup against the Jets is the best matchup on paper for opposing quarterbacks (ranked 32 in pass defense DVOA) and will pose no threat for Fitzpatrick getting to 3x value on DraftKings.

As of now, he’s my personal cash game quarterback.

Honorable Mention: Justin Herbert, Kyler Murray, Teddy Bridgewater

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($9,500 DK / $11,000 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook in one of the best matchups all season. He’s on fire and a core piece of my DraftKings’ cash build. As for FanDuel, he’s hard to fade there as well (-400 odds to score a TD, lol), but he’s very expensive. If you can afford him, use him.
James Robinson ($6,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – Simply priced way too low for the workload he’s likely to receive with Chris Thompson out and Mike Glennon now under center. Cleveland’s defense is not what is was earlier in the season and will again be missing Myles Garret.

The Value Backs

Nyheim Hines ($4,600 DK / $5,700 FD)
Brian Hill ($4,000 DK / $5,100 FD)
Wayne Gallman ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Honestly, I’ll be locking in two of the above value backs because I’m locking in Travis Kelce and Dalvin Cook. If you don’t want to do that, I suggest you just use Hines and get creative with your build elsewhere.

Honorable Mention: Gio Bernard, Kareem Hunt, Josh Jacobs

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($8,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Keenan is simply on another planet this year and just insane weekly rapport with Justin Herbert. You all know how much I love to load up slot receivers against Buffalo’s Taron Johnson, so this is a matchup that should be fruitful.

I am interested to see how Sean McDermott and this defense try to scheme away Keenan Allen. There’s no chance they just let Taron Johnson get worked for four straight quarters. I’d imagine McDermott watched the Miami/Buffalo film and took notes on how Brian Flores used safeties to help out their awful slot corner, Nik Needham.

I think I’ll fade Keenan at 20% ownership in GPPs, but I’ll be quite interested in using him in NFL DFS cash games.
Stefon Diggs ($7,600 DK / $7,900 FD) – Getting exposure to this Chargers/Bills game is going to be one of my higher priorities in all of my DFS lineups regardless of cash or GPP. You cannot go wrong with Stefon Diggs, especially when John Brown is out.
Justin Jefferson ($6,300 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jefferson is likely to be the heaviest owned wide receiver on this slate with Adam Thielen likely missing this game due to COVID-19. I will likely fade him in tournaments but eat the chalk in cash games here against a well below-average Carolina secondary.

I don’t love using he and Dalvin Cook together but many times this year the double stack has been on the winning side of cash game lineups. It’s probably best you eat the chalk here as well.
DeVante Parker ($5,900 DK / $6,500 FD) – Simply way too cheap of a WR1 price-tag against the Jets’ secondary.
Jarvis Landry ($5,200 DK / $5,700 FD) – Well, if you saw my whiskey-infused tweet the other night, you know how high I am on Jarvis Landry this weekend, lol. Tre Herndon is literally the only starting cornerback left on this active roster in Jacksonville… that is a problem. Landry should bust out in a massive way on Sunday as long as the Jaguars can keep this one somewhat close.
Laviska Shenault ($3,300 DK / $5,000 FD) – He’s damn near min price on both sites with a 4.5 receptions prop. Despite what the quarterback situation is here, Shenault should be the focal point of whatever is left of the Jaguars passing game. We just need 10 points, Laviska!

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Robby Anderson, Antonio Brown, Michael Pittman, Gabriel Davis

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,000 DK / $8,000 FD) – No need to say anything.
Darren Waller ($6,000 DK / $7,100 FD) – The only tight-end that is anything close to the fantasy producer Kelce is. I’d much rather have Kelce at the slightly higher price-tag, but this should be a great game environment in Atlanta for Darren Waller.
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD) – Really my only “value” tight-end this week.

Honorable Mention: Kyle Rudolph, Jordan Reed

Defense / Special Teams

Miami Dolphins
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams
New York Giants
Denver Broncos

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Ryan Fitzpatrick
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: Nyheim Hines
WR: Justin Jefferson
WR: Laviska Shenault
WR: Stefon Diggs
TE: Travis Kelce
FLEX: Brian Hill
DST: Broncos

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 10 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Another great week for Week 9 NFL DFS Cash Games. Let’s get right back at it for a solid showing yet again in Week 10, which is a bit of a strange slate to say the least.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 10, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Josh Allen, Kyler Murray, Mike Davis (lock in cash), Duke Johnson, Davante Adams, and Stefon Diggs all project to be incredibly high in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two or three of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($8,000 DK / $8,900 FD) – Do we need to say anything about Kyler Murray at this point in the season? No. No we do not. You know what you’re getting out of Kyler Murray and 15% or more of the field is going to roster him against Buffalo and their mediocre defense.
Josh Allen ($7,500 DK / $8,700 FD) – On the other side of Kyler Murray is Mr. Josh Allen. Thank the lord we decided he was our QB1 last week and I have no problem if you go back to the well with Allen on the road as a slight underdog in a 56-point total. This game is going to be fun to watch and offer a lot of fireworks from a fantasy standpoint.

Honorable Mention: Jared Goff, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson

Running Backs

Mike Davis ($4,000 DK / $5,400 FD) – Just use him. McCaffrey is out and Davis is clearly mis-priced. He should be 100% owned in cash games and his output doesn’t matter. It’s not an ideal matchup against the 3rd best run defense in the league, but I find it nearly impossible for him not to get to 13+ fantasy points. Take the savings and run on the Davis freesquare.
Aaron Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,800 FD) – The lead running back on the team with the highest Adjusted Expected Team Total, at home, against the worst overall defense in the NFL (32nd in overall defense DVOA). My only concern with Jones is the return of Jamaal Williams who is certainly going to get plenty of snaps out of this Green Bay backfield (especially if this game gets out of hand).
Duke Johnson ($5,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Another freesquare with David Johnson ruled out with a concussion. I little bit better of a matchup than Mike Davis against Tampa Bay, but he’s also $1,000 more expensive on DraftKings (very affordable on FanDuel). If you want to use two punt running backs and pay up at QB/WR/TE, your path to victory in cash would be using Davis and Johnson together.

I’m not sure that’s the way I want my lineup to look with Johnson being quite inefficient via the run, but the pass catching ability should alleviate any concerns we have about Johnson’s floor for cash games.

Honorable Mention: Alvin Kamara, Antonio Gibson, Giovani Bernard, Kalen Ballage, James Robinson

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($9,000 DK / $9,500 FD) – Davante Adams against the absolute worst pass defense in the the NFL. Check mate. Personally, I am only going to play one Packer (Jones or Adams). Right now, I’m leaning Adams.
Stefon Diggs ($7,500 DK / $7,900 FD) – I love the value here on FanDuel, but he’s certainly in play on DraftKings as well… Especially when 25% of the field (if not more) is going to roster Diggs in NFL DFS cash games. Whether or not Patrick Peterson shadows should not deter you from rostering the best route runner in the NFL who owns a ~30% target share.
Michael Thomas ($7,400 DK / $8,500 FD) – Just way too cheap for Michael Thomas against a completely depleted, struggling secondary in San Francisco. Thomas led the team in targets last week and will start to get back to a similar workload he had in 2019 (certainly not as high of a floor he had last year, but it’s still incredibly high).
Keenan Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,800) – Is there anyone in the NFL that’s been more consistent than Keenan Allen? No. No, there isn’t. Remember just a few weeks ago when were so high on Cooper Kupp in this same matchup against Miami’s slot cornerback, Nik Needham? Yea, let’s ride. Keenan is as safe as ever to get to 2.5x value in you NFL DFS Cash Games.
Jarvis Landry ($5,900 DK / $6,000 FD) – In the first game without Odell Beckham we saw Jarvis rack up 11 targets (in that gale-force wind game against Las Vegas). I’m always going to be interested in sure-handed wide receivers with a 30% target share. Pair all of that with a matchup against Houston’s Eric Murray and Vernon Hargreaves and you’re going to be happy with the result.

Hell, Jake Luton and the Jaguars’ receiving core went nuts last week…
Josh Reynolds ($3,500 DK / $5,000 FD) – Reynolds comes into the week grading out as the #1 NFL DFS value in the AETY Model for wide receivers. We all know how much of a pass funnel defense Seattle is as team’s torch them on a weekly basis. Reynolds is locked in for a minimum of 75% of the Rams’ offensive snaps assuming this game goes up-paced like Vegas and the pre-match 56 point total support.

I’d certainly prefer Robert Woods or Cooper Kupp here, but at this price, I’ll always sign off on cheap exposure to the highest total game on the slate.

Honorable Mention: Chris Conley, Tyler Lockett, Jakeem Grant, Michael Thomas, Robert Woods, DeVante Parker

Tight Ends

Tight end seems like an absolute wasteland this week with no Travis Kelce. I don’t have a great read on where I’m going yet, but here are my top options on the slate.

Darren Waller ($5,900 DK / $7,000 FD)
Evan Engram ($4,500 DK / $5,600 FD)
Dallas Goedert ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD)
TJ Hockenson ($5,100 DK / $6,200 FD)
Greg Olsen ($2,500 DK / $4,600 FD)

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Mike Davis
RB: Duke Johnson
WR: Davante Adams
WR: Keenan Allen
WR: Josh Reynolds
TE: Greg Olsen
FLEX: Alvin Kamara
DST: Detroit Lions

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 9

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 9

This week was a tough one to build cash in my eyes. I didn’t love a ton of value throughout the slate, especially at the wide receiver position. Considering I started the week wanting to play Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey, it looked like we needed to make some tough choices. Let’s walk you through how I went about building this week and see what went right and wrong in NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 9!

NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 8

The Lineup

QB

This was one position that I decided somewhat early that I would need to spend less than I really wanted to. All told, Josh Allen was probably my favorite play. His price had been depressed by some roller coaster games lately. I always want to attack Seattle’s pass “defense”. It’s historically bad and the salary didn’t match the upside. I needed just about every dollar I could think of and I went all the way down to Drew Lock. I know some in the Discord were skittish after the Jimmy G disaster last week. Still, Lock had good upside at his price and only needed about 18 to hit 3.5x. We ran into an absolute ceiling game from him, but this is a perfect example of why cheap quarterbacks can be worth it.

Others Considered – Kyler Murray, Patrick Mahomes, Derek Carr, Justin Herbert

RB

The first player in my Core Four this week was Dalvin, and it’s not hard to see why at this point. The man is on a different level and the matchup was phenomenal. I think it speaks to the lack of value folks felt safe with this week that he was under 60% in my cash games. I expected him to be stone chalk and feared fading him all week.

As I mentioned, I would have loved to pair him with a drastically under-priced CMC. That just didn’t seem possible in cash in any safe format. I would have had to make serious sacrifices to the rest of the lineup and that’s the GPP route, not the cash.

I really only considered four other backs – Chase Edmonds, James Conner, Justin Jackson and DeeJay Dallas. Since these backs were in similar pricing tiers, I planned on picking one of Conner and Edmonds. After that, I then figured I would pair that choice with either Dallas or Jackson. Edmonds was the choice because A. I felt he would be over 40% rostered (he was) and B. I felt he had a potentially even better matchup. We talked about it multiple times this week in Discord. Every Steelers player had a path to failure. I thought Conner was at the bottom of that list, but the game script was ugly for Pittsburgh. Edmonds was frustrating, but well over 20 touches for under $7,000 isn’t something we did wrong. The result just stunk. Either choice in this tier turned out to be poor.

The cheaper tier turned out to be terrible but thank goodness Jackson was around the second-chalkiest player in cash. There’s just nothing we could do with this one. He was hurt either in warmups or the first play of the game. That’s terrible luck. I got worried about Dallas as the week went on. The presence of Travis Homer and Alex Collins led me to think it could be a three-headed monster. They mostly were and I believe the right choice was made. If Kalen Ballage had a good game in Jackson’s stead, I’m thinking Jackson would have been great here. The other two backs past Cook bit us, but the process was sound for NFL Cash Game Review Week 9.

WR

I feel a little lucky here. I got this position wrong as far as chalk, but I didn’t come back to bite me. When trying to fit the Cook and CMC combo, I had no receiver over $5,100. That was uncomfortable, as I knew the group of Julio Jones, Keenan Allen, Stefon Diggs and Tyler Lockett would draw attention. As it turned out, Julio was over 60% and I’m still surprised he was higher than Cook. I knew he would be popular with the Broncos missing corners and Calvin Ridley being out, but goodness. Sticking with Diggs as a target that I honed in on early was important to me. At least if I couldn’t play Allen, I got the biggest piece of the passing game.

Mavin Jones was a player I though would be much higher that he was. I’m not sure he was over 22% and I know that he’s had a tough season so far. The matchup against the rough Minnesota secondary led me to think he’d be chalk without Kenny Golladay. Fortunately he scored since he only caught two other passes on the day.

The star of the day was Jerry Jeudy. He was not popular at all because Noah Fant drew plenty of folks to him in a smash matchup. Fant missed some time due to injury but he busted in the spot. Jeudy did not and had his best game as a pro, going 7/125/1 and lighting the Atlanta secondary up. Jeudy was about as low as I wanted to go salary-wise this week.

Others Considered – Tyreek Hill, D.K. Metcalf, Diontae Johnson

TE

It seems like the same song and dance every week. I wanted to play Travis Kelce, but you have to save some salary somewhere. Once we dropped down to under $5,000, Fant was my favorite target in a vacuum. Atlanta has been crushed by tight ends all year and Fant was getting healthy. It turned out that my favorite structure was playing Jeudy and I didn’t want Lock, Jeudy and Fant all together. I settled on Evan Engram. He was at his lowest price of the season, and had seen 19 targets the past two weeks. Additionally, Golden Tate was out. Engram was a player I felt didn’t have to have a score to have a 12 DK game. Something as simple as a 6/60 line would have worked fine. He finished with a 5/48/1 on another 10 targets.

Others Considered – Hunter Henry, Logan Thomas, Hayden Hurst

D/ST

I only had two options in mind this week for cash – The Giants or Washington. There was simply not a chance on this planet that I was paying the highest salary for a defense in site history for the Steelers. I will never, ever pay $4,900 for a defense. Past that, I wanted relatively cheap chances for sacks and turnovers and both my targets fit the bill. Washington faced Daniel Jones and is a top-five DVOA defense. On the flip side, the Giants defense is better than folks realize and faced Kyle Allen. Now maybe the Giants got a bit lucky since Allen was hurt and Alex Smith threw three picks. Still, it’s a strong lesson to not get excited about expensive defenses.

Final Thoughts

The biggest takeaway for me is to not be afraid of cheaper quarterbacks. Sure, you won’t get 30+ DK from a player that is just $5,200 very often. Playing Lock this week left any avenue I wanted basically open to me. I’m usually willing to go cheaper at that position to fit Cook, Diggs, etc… into a cash lineup especially when it gives my backs a clear path to 60+ touches combined.

Thanks for reading NFL Cash Lineup Review Week 7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life and be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 9 Cash Game Checkdown

Brian Tulloch 4 years ago

written by Brian Tulloch

It was refreshing to see a normal (if not below-average) pay-line in our NFL DFS Cash Games in Week 8, to say the least. Let’s get right back at it for another solid Week 9.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 8, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

A handful of different options at the QB position including a few interesting punt plays.
I’m narrowing down the player pool a lot this week. I see a ton of different cash lineups in the discord with way too may different players in the builds. With this article, we should all be honed in on educated plays and smash this slate.
Chalk Report: Dalvin Cook, Chase Edmonds, Keenan Allen, and Tyler Lockett all project for over 20% in ownership. I think we’ll likely want to lock in at least two of them in our cash games.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Russell Wilson ($7,600 DK / $9,000) – Quite expensive, but is there anyone safer at the quarterback position this season than Wilson? Russ is cooking and is playing in the highest total game on this slate against a Buffalo defense who has surprisingly struggled at all facets of the game. Somehow DraftKings lowered his price from last week?
Josh Allen ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – Allen hasn’t done much lately but for every other quarterback in the NFL, this has been the get-right spot against Seattle’s 30th ranked pass defense (in DVOA). Seattle is the ultimate pass-funnel defense and Allen also offers a lot of upside with his legs. He should have no issues getting over 22 fantasy points this weekend.
Justin Herbert ($6,800 DK / $7,900 FD) – Herbert is absolutely on fire while averaging over 27 DraftKings’ points per game since being named the starter. The Raiders’ defense as a whole is absolute trash and coming into this week ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA. Like Allen and Russ, Herbert offers a lot of upside with his rushing abilities. It’s hard to not love him this week.
Drew Lock ($5,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – If you need the savings on DraftKings, Lock makes a ton of sense against Atlanta and their pass-funnel defense. Atlanta ranks second in opposing quarterback fantasy points per game (over 25 points allowed per game), so if there’s any week to trust Drew Lock, it’s this week. The return of Tim Patrick helps lock significantly as well.

Honorable Mention: DeShaun Watson, Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes, Ben Roethlisberger

Running Backs

Dalvin Cook ($8,200 DK / $9,300 FD) – It’s Dalvin Cook against Detroit’s run defense. No need to overthink it, you likely must eat the chalk on this one in NFL DFS cash games. He’s pricey and I honestly don’t think he’s a “must-play” as long as the rest of your lineup is sexy.
James Conner ($6,900 DK / $8,200 FD) – The Cowboys are absolute trash as a whole and even worse against opposing running backs (29th in run defense DVOA). Pair that with the Steelers being a 14.5-point favorite and that should equal a ton of James Conner production in Week 9. The only concern here is potential blowout but Conner should be a lock for 3x value no matter how this game unfolds.
Chase Edmonds ($6,800 DK / $6,700 FD) – Way too cheap on FanDuel. Lock him in against the worst run defense in the NFL. Kenyan Drake is out, it’s wheels up for Chase Edmonds at home. He will 100% be in my cash game lineup.
DeeJay Dallas ($5,000 DK / $5,100 FD) – Carlos Hyde is out. Chris Carson is out. There’s really no one outside of a banged up Travis Homer who is going to compete with Dallas for the Seahawks’ backfield snaps. I don’t expect a ton out of DeeJay Dallas, but the savings open up a lot for your NFL DFS cash game lineup against Buffalo’s 24th ranked run defense (DVOA).

I look at it this way, we’re getting extremely cheap exposure to the 2nd best offense on this slate in the highest total game on this slate. DeeJay Dallas should have no problems getting to 14-15 fantasy points.

UPDATE: Love Justin Jackson in cash

Honorable Mention: James Robinson, Josh Jacobs, Justin Jackson, David Johnson, JK Dobbins

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen ($7,000 DK / $7,500 FD) – The target share is just so elite with Herbert under center and the matchup against the Raiders and Lamarcus Joyner is arguably more elite. 25 targets over the past two games!
Tyler Lockett ($6,800 DK / $7,400 FD) – Our weekly “pick on Taron Johnson” write-up just happens to be Tyler Lockett. Yes, he disappointed a bit last week but Lockett will have a big game on the road here in Buffalo. Taron Johnson is one of the worst cover slot-cornerbacks in the NFL and Lockett is one of the best overall slot receivers in football. Let’s go.
Stefon Diggs ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD) – On the other side of Tyler Lockett is my favorite route runner in the NFL, Stefon Diggs. You shouldn’t need me to say a whole lot about Stefon Diggs in this matchup against the Seahawks. He’s in line for ~7 catches for 90 yards. If this game stays up-paced, that’s going to be his floor. I don’t care what the coverage scheme is against Diggs, if Allen is halfway competent, Diggs is in for a huge day.
Julio Jones ($7,100 DK / $8,200 FD) – I’m under the impression that Calvin Ridley is OUT. If so, Julio Jones is going to be one busy man on Sunday against a Broncos’ defense that will be without their top cornerback, AJ Bouye.
Marvin Jones ($5,100 DK / $6,100 FD) – No Golladay this week equals Marvin Jones lock button against Minnesota’s poor excuse for a secondary. It’s that simple.
Jerry Jeudy ($4,700 DK / $5,700 FD) – I know Tim Patrick was out last week and that clearly opened up a lot for Jerry Jeudy, but he’s clearly earning more trust and target share with Drew Lock. Against this Atlanta secondary (who we pick on weekly) in the dome, Jeudy’s route running should be on display. He’s way too cheap and offers a nice bit of salary relief for our NFL DFS cash game lineups.

UPDATE: Sterling Shepard added to cash WR pool

Honorable Mention: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, DK Metcalf, DJ Moore, Mike Williams

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($7,200 DK / $8,000 FD) – There’s no one more consistent at the tight-end position than Kelce. If you can afford him, you play him.
Darren Waller ($5,800 DK / $6,400 FD) – Waller was a bit of a let down last week in the wild weather of Cleveland, but he should be in a prime spot in a shootout against the Chargers with a pre-match total sitting at 52 points. Outside of Kelce, no one has as high of a team target share than Waller.
Noah Fant ($4,600 DK / $5,800 FD) – The Falcons’ secondary gets torched by any sort of pass catcher. Fant is due for a big breakout game in 2020 and that may come in Week 9 if this game can keep a solid pace. Fant looks to be the chalkiest tight end on this slate so if you want to chase that in cash games, I won’t talk you off of it.
Evan Engram ($4,300 DK / $5,500 FD) – The air yards have been through the roof lately with Engram and the targets obviously are climbing up as well (19 combined targets over the past two weeks). I absolutely hate the pace that we’ll likely see in this game, but at this price, Engram is in play.
Hayden Hurst ($4,100 DK / $5,600 FD) – If Ridley misses this game, that should be a decent bump up to one of my favorite tight ends in the NFL (who has seen his target share raise consistently over the past few weeks). If this game has a high pace like I think it will, let’s ride Hayden Hurst.

Honorable Mention: Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, TJ Hockenson, Logan Thomas, Jonnu Smith

Defense / Special Teams

Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
Houston Texans
Arizona Cardinals
New York Giants

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Drew Lock
RB: DeeJay Dallas
RB: Dalvin Cook
WR: Stefon Diggs
WR: Jerry Jeudy
WR: Marvin Jones
TE: Hayden Hurst
FLEX: Chase Edmonds
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 7 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 6 was personally the best week of DFS of my life and what made it even better were all of the screenshots from the Win Daily members. Nothing gets me more fired up than seeing our team absolutely crush a NFL DFS slate. Let’s run it back again in Week 7.

The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 7, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is HUGE. I personally am not a fan of DraftKings moving an 11-game slate up to a 12-gamer, but oh well. So many great options and value everywhere.
Quarterback seems a bit slim for me. Kyler and Russ are going to draw a ton of ownership and it’s just tough to fade that game in general
Gio Bernard and Alvin Kamara chalk week. You likely HAVE to lock in both in your cash game builds.
Tons of good WRs for cash games this week.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Kyler Murray ($7,100 DK / $8,400 FD) – Seattle’s pass defense has been torched on a weekly basis, ranking 29th in pass defense DVOA. We don’t need to look into this matchup too much, lol. Kyler Murray’s rushing floor is second to nobody on this slate and a 55-point total clearly states this game is going to be up-pace and high scoring.

Kyler is going to be the highest owned QB on this slate and it’s an easy decision to go with the public and ride Murray as your cash game quarterback here at home against Seattle.
AETY Projection: 25.29 points

2. Aaron Rodgers ($7,000 DK / $8,100 FD) – Assuming Aaron Jones is still highly questionable to suit up for the early matchup of Green Bay @ Houston, Aaron Rodgers should be heavily leaned on in a much needed bounce-back victory after completely laying an egg last week in Tampa Bay.

Houston’s defense overall is terrible and the pace of this game should be one of the higher ones on the slate. If Aaron Jones plays, I’m not as interested in Rodgers, but if he’s out, I absolutely love Rodgers with a plus matchup on the road in the dome.

Green Bay is simply way too efficient when they lean on Rodgers and this pass game. This is a great spot for Rodgers and this Packers’ offense as a whole.
AETY Projection: 22.08 points

3. Matt Stafford ($6,500 DK / $7,300 FD) – If you want to pay down a bit at QB, there’s never a better matchup on the board than a QB against Atlanta (30th in pass defense DVOA). Hell, Kirk Cousins threw three interceptions and still had a season-best fantasy performance. You know the drill at this point in the season: use quarterbacks against Atlanta.
AETY Projection: 21.36 points

Honorable Mention: Russell Wilson, DeShaun Watson, Joe Burrow

Running Backs

Alvin Kamara ($7,900 DK / $9,300 FD) – No Michael Thomas. No Emmanuel Sanders. Carolina’s run defense (or lack thereof)… Wheels up for Alvin Kamara (-250 to score on most sports-books… sexy). Lock him in for your cash game lineups!
AETY Projection: 25.05 DK / 21.64 FD
Kareem Hunt ($6,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – Kareem Hunt’s ownership is likely to be through the roof this week (as will Kamara’s and Bernard’s). It’s hard for me to get off of Hunt in my cash game lineups (and most lineups for that matter) because this matchup is too juicy for me to turn my back on.

The Bengals are giving up over five yards per carry to opposing running backs and have been rather loose with pass catching running backs. Hunt is a pure three-down running back behind one of the best offensive lines in football. At this price, he’s likely a must-play in most DFS formats this weekend.
AETY Projection: 21.73 DK / 20.22 FD
Chris Carson ($6,400 DK / $7,600 FD – Simply way too cheap for a top-tier, three-down running back who is playing in the chalkiest game on the slate. Arizona’s run defense is slightly above average, but I’m not afraid of the matchup at all with how active Carson is in the Seattle passing attack. His floor is 4 catches in this matchup and should have plenty of opportunities to get into the end-zone.
AETY Projection: 18.75 DK / 17.10 FD
Giovanni Bernard ($4,500 DK / $4,800 FD) – With Joe Mixon out, Gio Bernard is the easy, free-square play in Week 7. Use him in cash games.
AETY Projection: 15.94 DK / 14.03 FD
Antonio Gibson ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD) – If you need another salary saver in addition to Bernard, Antonio Gibson should be that guy for you again this week. He never really does anything special, but this is the best matchup Gibson has had in quite some time. Dallas currently ranks 29th in run defense DVOA and literally get destroyed by opposing backs on a weekly basis.

I hate how much JD McKissic we see for Washington each week, but Gibson is the more talented player and finally has low odds to score a touchdown this week (-105). Yea, that’s nothing special, but Vegas hasn’t shown Gibson that type of love all season. If you need the savings, ride Gibson.
AETY Projection: 15.31 DK / 13.78 FD

**Jamaal Williams is in play IF Aaron Jones is OUT

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, James Conner, D’Andre Swift

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,900 DK / $8,900 FD) – If Aaron Jones is out, I want to do everything in my power to lock in Adams in my cash lineups. He’s going to be the heaviest owned WR on this slate and is matchup proof. I likely won’t make my decision on Adams until Sunday morning, but I know I really, really want him to fit in my cash lineup.
AETY Projection: 21.25 DK / 17.61 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,700 DK / $7,600 FD) – #1 Wide Receiver against Atlanta. Do we need to say more? Lock in Golladay. He needs to priced up around $7,200 in this matchup on DraftKings.
AETY Projection: 19.41 DK / 16.22 FD
Tyler Lockett ($6,600 DK / $7,400 FD) – Classic case of me and the Seahawks wide receivers in cash games. On FanDuel, DK Metcalf is cheaper, use him. On DraftKings, Lockett is cheaper… so I’m using him.

If you’re not playing Wilson or Carson in cash, you’re going to want one of these Seahawks’ pass catchers. We can’t fade this game.
AETY Projection: 17.66 DK / 14.58 FD
Keenan Allen ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Jacksonville is dead last in pass defense DVOA and Keenan Allen is an absolute target monster for Justin Herbert. The AETY model has Allen’s projected target share for 30% this week and that’s something to note in itself for your NFL DFS cash games.

Vegas props on Allen are also through the roof with a 6.5 receptions player prop (juice is on the over). That’s wild.
AETY Projection: 18.30 DK / 14.91 FD
Terry McLaurin ($5,800 DK / $7,100 FD) – I have no idea what DraftKings is doing with McLaurin’s price-tag. This guy just puts up points on a weekly basis and gets a juicy matchup against Trevon Diggs from the Cowboys. That’s a top-five matchup on this slate. Lock him in.
AETY Projection: 18.21 DK / 14.80 FD
Diontae Johnson ($4,200 DK / $5,800 FD) – We’ll likely need another salary saver at the wide receiver position, so welcome back, Diontae Johnson. ~~I don’t love this matchup as much now that Adoree Jackson is likely back for the Titans~~, but he’s too cheap to not consider in NFL DFS cash games.

Adoree Jackson is out. Much more confident in Diontae.
AETY Projection: 11.15 DK / 8.91 FD

Honorable Mention: Calvin Ridley, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Chase Claypool, DJ Moore, Brandin Cooks, AJ Green, Dontrelle Inman

Tight Ends

Travis Kelce ($6,300 DK / $7,900 FD) – Clearly the top tight end on this slate. I hate paying down at tight-end, but this week I’ll likely have to. If you can find a way to build around Kelce, do it.
Hunter Henry ($4,500 DK / $5,800 FD) – Henry is averaging 7 targets per game but is priced in the mid $4K’s… This is a lay-up on DraftKings and a free-throw on FanDuel (I’m not sure what that means but wanted to stay on theme with basketball). Henry is by far the #1 value at the tight end position in the AETY Model.
AETY Projection: 13.93 DK / 11.48 FD
David Njoku ($3,000 DK / $4,500 FD) – I personally think Harrison Bryant is a much more talented player than Njoku, but with Hooper out, Bryant is going to be leaned on for blocking first, running routes second. Njoku is an awful blocker but a quality route runner. He’s going to be extremely popular in DFS this week due to the price tag and I’m fine if you want to eat that chalk for the savings in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 8.39 DK / 6.77 FD

Honorable Mention: Darren Waller, TJ Hockenson, Jared Cook, Dalton Schultz, Logan Thomas

Defense / Special Teams

Buffalo Bills
Pittsburgh Steelers
Tampa Bay Bucs
Los Angeles Chargers
Washington Football Team

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Kyler Murray
RB: Alvin Kamara
RB: Gio Bernard
WR: Kenny Golladay
WR: Terry McLaurin
WR: Diontae Johnson
TE: Hunter Henry
FLEX: Kareem Hunt
DST: Washington

4 years ago 0 comments

NFL

NFL DFS: Stix Picks Week 6 Cash Game Checkdown

StixPicks 4 years ago

written by StixPicks

Week 5 was a perfect get right for our NFL DFS Cash Games and we did not get disappointed. Let’s stay hot for Week 6! The purpose of this article is to identify my top plays for a NFL DFS cash game lineup on DraftKings and FanDuel Sunday Main Slates (also known as a double-up). Players in this article are usually a mix of the following:

High-floor/high-volume “safer” players (players with a very low bust-rate)
VALUE PLAYS
Not a part of a stack – Stacking is great for GPPs, but if you stack in cash games, your lineup is entirely too dependent on said stacked team. If that team does poorly, your whole lineup does… Not a risk we need to take in a cash game. QB/WR pairing is fine, but unless there’s extreme value in a 3-man stack, let’s keep it to QB/WR or QB/TE at most.
Extremely chalky for the week… in GPP’s I’ll usually always fade volatile players at > 40% ownership, but in cash games, it’s usually best to eat the chalk. If that player underperforms, it does not hinder your ability to cross the pay-line as 40% or more of the field is in the same boat. If you fade this player(s) and he has a great game, your lineup is likely toast… as you’re now behind 40% or more of the field. Make sense? If not, hit me up on Discord/Twitter to discuss further.

*Some notes on what I believe to be the “optimal” roster build for NFL DFS Cash Games. I’ll include this in all the Checkdown articles moving forward. For Week 6, please see below for my notes on roster construction:

The player pool is starting to slim down with all of these injuries/postponed games, but there are a ton of great value plays at every position this week.
Quarterback seems wide open, lot of nice options there.
David Montgomery & Alexander Mattison Chalk Week. I get the Montgomery play with his price, but Mattison is a bit expensive on DraftKings to be considered a “lock” in cash games. He’s perfect on FanDuel.
Looks like a great week to get value WRs – lock in AJ Brown in cash.
Just because a player is not mentioned in this article, does not mean they are not cash viable.
AETY Model Projections change throughout the week, please ensure you check out our final projections before lock!
I update this article periodically through the week. Be sure to check back on Saturday night / Sunday morning for any additions/revisions!!

NFL DFS Cash Game Quarterbacks

Lamar Jackson ($7,700 DK / $9,000 FD) – Very expensive, but likely holds the highest floor out of any quarterback on this slate (if you believe his knee is good to go). Per usual, I doubt I pay up for Jackson, but if your build finds a way to fit him in, do it.
AETY Projection: 24.51 points
DeShaun Watson ($7,000 DK / $8,200 FD) – The AETY model can’t quit DeShaun Watson and for good reason, he’s hit 3x value the past two weeks. This matchup projects to be one of the highest in pace and offers a total over 53 points. Tennessee’s pass defense isn’t nearly as bad as I thought it would be this year (ranked 11th in DVOA), but I trust Watson and this healthy Houston wide receiving core to hit value in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 23.12 points
Matthew Stafford ($6,300 DK / $7,300 FD) – Every week we attack this incredibly banged-up Jacksonville passing defense that ranks dead last in pass DVOA (and giving up over 22 fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks). Stafford and the Lions are coming off of the bye and should be ready to rock. Locking in Stafford is an easy decision this week for cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.55 points
Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,900 DK / $7,400 FD) – If you need more savings for the rest of your lineup (on DraftKings), Fitzpatrick is probably as low as I would go. Miami is a massive home favorite here which sets the table nicely for the running game, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins like to start games with a very high pace and that should bode well for Fitzpatrick against the 31st ranked passing defense.
AETY Projection: 20.28 points

Honorable Mention: Kirk Cousins, Matt Ryan, Ryan Tannehill

Running Backs

Derrick Henry ($7,300 DK / $9,000 FD) – Pound for pound the top-dog running back on this slate and Houston’s run defense ranks 5th worst on this slate. I expected a huge game from James Robinson last week but Jacksonville abandoned the run rather quickly. Tennessee commits to running the football and Henry is likely to have the best odds to score in comparison to any other running back on the slate. He’s likely to come in > 40% in ownership in cash games this week.

The model has him projected for over 110 rushing yards… That’s juicy.
AETY Projection: 20.80 DK / 19.86 FD
Alexander Mattison ($7,200 DK / $7,000 FD) – Everyone is going to play Mattison this week in cash games. I can’t believe these DFS sites actually priced a backup RB coming into an RB1 workload correctly, that usually never happens. I hate this price point because Dalvin Cook himself is usually at this price point, but it’s probably good chalk to eat in NFL DFS cash games.
AETY Projection: 20.39 DK / 18.91 FD
James Robinson ($6,800 DK / $6,500 FD) – Incredibly cheap on FanDuel so that’s where you’re likely going to want to use him more frequently this week, but Robinson is certainly in play in all formats this week against the Lions’ 31st ranked run defense (in DVOA). They cannot stop the run and Robinson also has plenty of pass-catching upside if Detroit gets ahead early and forces Jacksonville into an up-paced gamescript.

Having said that, Devine Ozigbo is back for Jacksonville this week so it will be interesting to see if he takes some snaps away from J-Rob. I doubt it, but keep an eye on it.
AETY Projection: 18.27 DK / 16.61 FD
Jonathan Taylor ($6,400 DK / $7,300 FD) – Hopefully this game can be played despite the Covid-19 rumors going around. This is a sexy price for Taylor as a big home-favorite going up against a defense giving up over five yards per carry. Smash spot for Taylor.
AETY Projection: 18.66 DK / 17.41 FD
Ronald Jones ($6,000 DK / $5,800 FD) – Way too cheap on both sites (especially FanDuel). Green Bay and Tampa Bay currently have the highest total on this slate (54.5 points) and you’re going to want to get exposure to that. If Fournette is out, Jones is likely a lock-button for my cash game lineup against Green Bay’s 25th ranked run defense (in terms of DVOA), giving up almost five yards per carry.
AETY Projection: 16.72 DK / 15.03 FD
David Montgomery ($5,800 DK / $5,900 FD) – Its Carolina’s run defense. Todd Gurley just tore them up… lock in Montgomery in cash games (as everyone in the field will) and move to the rest of your build.
AETY Projection: 18.81 DK / 16.19 FD

Honorable Mention: Mike Davis, Myles Gaskin

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($8,000 DK / $9,000 FD) – A healthy Davante Adams is always in play for NFL DFS cash games. He’s quite pricey, but he’s likely the slate leader in target share in the highest total game in Week Six.
AETY Projection: 17.59 DK / 14.35 FD
Calvin Ridley ($7,800 DK / $8,600 FD) – Similar to Adams, Calvin Ridley is likely viable for cash games on a weekly basis, especially in this matchup against Minnesota’s secondary (who has been improving a bit over the past few weeks). Ridley is too expensive for my builds, but I would not talk you off of Ridley in a shootout against Minnesota.
AETY Projection: 16.26 DK / 13.39 FD
Adam Thielen ($7,300 DK / $7,400 FD) – I hate to just list all of the top wide receivers on this slate, but any WR1 against Atlanta is in play for cash games. If you’re not using Mattison, use one of these Vikings receivers in Thielen or Justin Jefferson.
AETY Projection: 20.54 DK / 16.68 FD
Kenny Golladay ($6,200 DK / $7,200 FD) – Always have interest in Golladay when he’s priced like a low-tier WR1. The sky is the limit for Golladay in this matchup against Jacksonville. We will see plenty of Marvin Jones in this one as well and that’s always a bit of a headache, so I do prefer to get my Detroit exposure through Stafford, but Golladay is a great value at these price points.
AETY Projection: 17.26 DK / 14.34 FD
AJ Brown ($5,600 DK / $6,500 FD) – If you don’t want to roster Derrick Henry, roll with AJ Brown for your Tennessee exposure. Yes, Bradley Roby has looked incredibly impressive in shadow coverage (and he will shadow Brown on Sunday), but Brown is too talented for Roby to simply shut down AJ Brown. He’s too cheap and a perfect way to get exposure to this up-paced game against Houston.
AETY Projection: 16.34 DK / 13.52 FD
Chase Claypool ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD) – I hate chasing recent blow-up games, but with Diontae Johnson ruled out, Chase Claypool becomes an easy value play I’m 100% going to roster in cash games. He’s absolutely massive and runs a 4.4 forty yard dash. I’m extremely excited to see this dude with a full workload of snaps. Against Cleveland’s secondary, he should have plenty of opportunities to show off his abilities yet again.
AETY Projection: 12.84 DK / 10.58 FD
Randall Cobb ($4,400 DK) – DraftKings value play. Tennessee has a very tough time covering slot wideouts and Cobb is one of my personal favorites. He’s still an excellent route runner and the target share continues to climb with DeShaun Watson on a weekly basis. I want a piece of Houston and Tennessee in my cash build this week.
AETY Projection: 11.26 DK

Honorable Mention: DeVante Parker, Jamison Crowder, Terry McLaurin, Laviska Shenault

Tight Ends

Mark Andrews ($6,500 DK / $7,600 FD) – Easily the top tight end on this slate. Roster him if you can afford him. The AETY Model doesn’t love his ability to get close to 2x value on FanDuel, but he has the highest touchdown upside of any tight end in football.
AETY Projection: 13.90 DK / 11.63 FD
Zach Ertz ($5,000 DK / $6,000 FD) – I know, he’s been borderline useless in fantasy this season, but the targets are consistently there for Zach Ertz. This Philadelphia passing attack is improving each week and getting closer to fully healthy. I like Ertz’ ability to hit 2x value this Sunday against the inside of this Baltimore pass-defense.
AETY Projection: 12.58 DK / 10.24 FD
Evan Engram ($4,900 DK / $5,600 FD) – Washington is giving up over 15 DraftKings’ points per game to opposing tight ends. I know there’s nothing really sexy about Engram thus far this season, but he should have a handful of opportunities to hit value. I don’t love it, but it’s a nasty slate for tight end options.
AETY Projection: 11.07 DK / 8.96 FD

Honorable Mention: Jonnu Smith, Hayden Hurst, Trey Burton, Eric Ebron, Irv Smith Jr.

Defense / Special Teams

New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Washington Football Team
New York Giants
Miami Dolphins

NFL DFS Cash Game Sample Lineup

QB: Matthew Stafford
RB: Alexander Mattison
RB: David Montgomery
WR: AJ Brown
WR: Chase Claypool
WR: Randall Cobb
TE: Mark Andrews
FLEX: Ronald Jones
DST: Miami

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