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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/14

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/14

If you played the last slate that had Miami on it and at least four players were 50%+ owned in cash…well, we’ll talk tomorrow. The Heat are still in the exact same spot as they were, and even with some pricing increases they just aren’t expensive enough. To add to that, the Rockets are missing John Wall and traded James Harden, so they need to replace a lot of scoring. This slate is likely to be very chalky with so many teams in a pinch so let’s start to figure out what we need to eat in NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/14!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 DK/$8,600 FD) – I mentioned earlier that this slate is likely to be chalky, and I don’t expect Brogdon to be a part of that at the moment. However, we know a lot can change. New teammate Caris LeVert won’t be there yet so Brogdon catches a Blazers team that will be on a back to back and is 10th in pace. He wasn’t anything to write home about on Tuesday but if your “down” game gets you 34 DK on a 5-18 shooting night, count me in. Brogdon gets an elite game environment and and least one more before LeVert is inserted into the mix. Don’t forget with Victor Oladipo off the floor, Brogdon has a 28.5% usage rate and a 1.23 FPPM.

Terry Rozier ($6,200 DK/$6,700 FD) – This play isn’t written in stone yet but Gordon Hayward was forced from last night’s game with a hip issue. At a guess, I would think the Hornets are cautious and he sits tonight. If that’s the case, Rozier is my first stop in all likelihood. He leads the Hornets in usage rate at 27.9% with Hayward off the floor, a bump of almost 4%. The Raptors sit just outside the top 12 in pace and Rozier would be too cheap on both sites.

Shake Milton ($5,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – Philly is starting to get right but they’re still missing Seth Curry. With him out, Milton steps into a role of either fifth starter or first man off the bench, and either way we need to pay attention. Milton is at a 25.9% usage rate and a 1.01 FPPM with Curry off the floor and he can shoot, so he likely fills Curry’s role in this spot. I probably won’t use him because I’ll be playing the much chalkier option below him.

Gabe Vincent ($4,200 DK/$4,500 FD) – With the Heat still down to either eight or nine players, we can expect another start and heavy minutes from Vincent tonight. He took 20 shots and 12 of them were from distance. There’s not a ton of angles to break down the Heat. They will almost surely have the exact same rotation they did last game and Andre Iguodala and Chris Silva played 22 and 18 minutes, respectively. I don’t think it’s wrong to go four Heat in cash again tonight.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry

Shooting Guard

Tyler Herro ($7,300 DK/$6,500 FD) – FD didn’t even to pretend to price up Herro, which at least DK sort of did. This is an easy plug and play as he was on the court for 39 minutes last game, is their best offensive player left and he took 26 shots last game. I will take that style of volume at this price point all day long, and I can’t see any reason why he wouldn’t be a core piece to every single cash lineup.

Instead of going player by player, let’s talk about the position as a whole. Herro is a lock on both sites, and on DK it’s kind of easy to just be done with it for the most part. On FD, we need a second and I think there’s two routes that stand out. You can live in the Tyrese Maxey range, but with Tobais Harris back now for the Sixers that gets a little dicey. If Hayward is indeed out for the Hornets, Devonte’ Graham gets a small bump in usage as well. It doesn’t feel like the best idea to chase the Aaron Holiday ceiling game with Graham and Maxey there.

The only other option that I’d consider right now is Fred VanVleet. He’s coming off a terrible game, but we all know that FVV won’t score 10 real points very often. On FD, it’s Herro and then one of these three as we stand Wednesday night.

Small Forward

Tobias Harris ($7,900 DK/$7,600 FD) – He still feels a hair pricey to me since Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are playing, but the high end of this position is basically non-existent tonight. With Curry off, Harris sits at a 26.3% usage and a 1.38 FPPM. That’s over an 83 minute sample, so that’s really not that bad. They need his shooting a bit more than normal tonight and since he didn’t have Covid, I don’t think we have to worry about that. He should slide right back to his normal role and very well could be the only spend-up option. He does feel like a luxury, since the Heat value pushes us towards a specific player in my eyes.

Eric Gordon ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – Provided he plays (I think he might not have a choice), Gordon is going to be likely the chalkiest play of the slate. Houston is without both John Wall and James Harden tonight, and Gordon is going to have to take on the brunt of the offense with Christian Wood. Take it with a HUGE grain of salt, but Gordon is at a 35.5% usage and 1.60 FPPM with those two off the court. Now, it’s grain of salt because it’s a 16 minute sample and his true shooting is 79.4% but this team is so short right now. There’s 243 field goal attempts on the sideline or on their way to Brooklyn right now so Gordon is here to chuck tonight.

See Updated Thoughts at the end with the Core

Precious Achiuwa ($4,400 DK/$4,100 FD) – The rookie is only PF/C on DK, which honestly is fine but whichever site you’re on, he’s in the top 3-5 chalkiest of the night and that’s all we need to know. He only committed four fouls against Joel Embiid and the Sixers last game, fairly impressive for 36 minutes of court time. Achiuwa recorded a double-double and will play 30+ minutes again, so go ahead an hit the lock button. Especially on FD, this is why I think Harris is a total luxury and not needed. You’re probably playing Gordon and this man.

Honorable Mention – Will Barton but don’t get too cute if Gordon is active.

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,500 DK/$9,200 FD) – We likely have a slate where Sabonis isn’t highly owned either. Last game, he was about 80% on FD and 50% on DK, so regardless of the results he was the right play. Especially on FD, he didn’t hurt you in cash in the slightest. He gets another excellent spot here. Portland has been solid in paint production given up, but Sabonis has more to his game than just paint touches.

It starts with raw touches, which Sabonis leads the entire NBA at 105 per game. While Jusuf Nurkic can at least hang with him, Sabonis on Enes Kanter for any amount of time is going to end poorly for the Blazers. We saw in the Golden State game that Sabonis had some issues with Draymond Green but ate up rookie James Wiseman. He’ll do the same with Kanter, probably touches the ball about 110 times tonight and has a 1.32 FPPM with Dipo off the court.

Christian Wood ($7,700 DK/$8,100 FD) – We don’t need Sabonis because Wood is far cheaper and is going to be WAY more popular. His sample without Harden and Wall is pretty tiny too, at just 22 minutes but the 26.9% usage rate is encouraging. The Spurs are 11th in pace, so that’s a nice bump for Wood as well. He’s siting at 15th in rebounds per game and Harden won’t be jumping in now either (although in fairness his effort surely wasn’t there lately). Either way, San Antonio is 29th in rebounds allowed in the paint and Wood was pushing 70 touches already. That’s going to skyrocket tonight and he’s pretty much a lock on both sites.

Kelly Olynyk ($6,400 DK/$5,300 FD) – I never thought I’d see a day where I didn’t hesitate on a $6,400 Kelly O but here we are. He was a TANK last game, playing 45 minutes and racking up 37 DK points. I would say that he’s the “least” likely to lock in member of the Heat for me on DK, but turning away from 40 minutes seems foolish. He only took 12 shots all game and still flirted with 40. On FD, the price is simply laughable. PF can be a difficult position to find and they just didn’t bother to price up anyone. We’ve consistently seen these short-handed teams get four players used in cash game settings. It’s against our normal rules but like the quote in Moneyball, “Adapt or die”.

Honorable Mention – Draymond Green, Pascal Siakam, P.J. Washington

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,200 FD) – One thing that we’ve learned on these with short-handed teams is the field is willing to play four from that team and then go studs the rest of the way. Let’s say you plug in the four members of the Heat that we’ve mentioned on each site. On DK, that leaves you with $6,925 per player left. FD leaves you with $7,920 per slot leftover. The way this slate shake out, I think Joker is going to be heavily owned in cash on both sites because there’s not another player like him available. You can argue for Embiid (and aren’t totally wrong) but the Warriors interior is so soft. Joker will go Godzilla on Wiseman, and I’m not sure Dray has the size to really give him much of an issue. Jokic still is over 100 touches a game and has a phenomenal chance at a triple-double, 60+ point DK game tonight.

Joel Embiid ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD) – On FD, you’re going to have to choose but on DK you could eschew the Wood chalk and go Joker/Biid. That of course is NOT THE CASH play, but it would be an interesting route to travel. If there’s one player who can match Joker’s ceiling, Biid has to be in that discussion. Embiid has been a monster with Curry off the court, with a 34.9% usage rate and a 1.76 FPPM over 115 minutes. That’s skewed a bit because Simmons and Tobias were missing for some of that too, but still. It’s noteworthy because Simmons has a 112 minute sample and sits under a 20% usage and just a 0.96 FPPM. He has been the clear loser of the big three with Curry off the floor. Embiid is the man on this offense and he has no opposition from the Heat missing Bam Adebayo again.

DeMarcus Cousins ($4,700 DK/$4,600 FD) – Cousins is another player who the Rockets might need a little more out of tonight, and if he gets around 22-24 minutes I would be very interested. He would get the same matchup in the paint that Wood does and if the Rockets opt to play Wood and Cousins together, I feel like that could really give the Spurs fits. This is really more of a DK play and you would have to fade Wood or Joker, which likely isn’t the optimal route to take.

*Note* – This article was not exactly the most loaded with stats and options, but for cash this slate seems SUPER cut and dry. We need a lot of the Heat value, and then the Rockets main two pieces. After that we only have a couple roster spots to fill. Unless some crazy news hits, I can’t find reasons to veer off this path today. Don’t overthink, don’t get cute and let’s get after it.

*UPDATED THOUGHTS* Well, the NBA loves to mess with us. The Rockets lost Eric Gordon for the night, and that is a game changer. We need to be on the Rockets more than the Heat tonight for two reasons. One, everyone locks to new news. Brian hits on this all the time and he’s dead on. Secondly, the Rockets are cheaper than the Heat. We talked about Miami being almost impossible to fail the other night because they were all near minimum price. That’s the way the Rockets are tonight.

You can go three Heat, three Rockets and two studs but my path is four Rockets, two Heat and two studs.

DK Core – David Nwaba, Ben McLemore, Domantas Sabonis, Tyler Herro with a bonus of Jokic as the fifth

FD Core – Christian Wood, Herro, McLemore, Precious Achiuwa

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

4 years ago 0 comments

Win Daily Sports DFS Glossary of terms:

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

One thing that I feel is tremendously important is understanding the vocabulary within DFS. New players can sometimes be overwhelmed and a little embarrassed to ask what in the world we are talking about in our articles and in discord. First thing, don’t be. There is not a single content creator that will give you grief for not knowing something. We have a lingo all our own and it can take time to get up to speed and experienced players can sometimes forget that, inadvertently leaving newer players confused and frustrated. This article will be consistently updated so if you want more information simply ask via direct message and I will be happy to answer your question and add to the article for future use. Let’s not waste anymore time and I hope you enjoy our Win Daily Sports DFS Glossary of terms.

Win Daily Sports DFS Glossary of terms:

In additions to Win Daily Sports DFS Glossary of terms we also have a ton of informational material from writers like StixPicks (click here for his NFL strategy guide) or Jason and excerpts from his book . No matter what you need in the sports world we have you covered.

GPP or Guaranteed Prize Pool/Tournament:

These are tournaments where the pay structure is pre-defined prior to the start of the contest and the pay structure increases the higher you finish in the final standings. They can either be single entry or multi entry. The Millionaire Maker is the most notable example.

Cash Contests/Double-Ups/50-50’s:

These are contests where if you finish above a certain point in the field you are payed a pre-determined amount that does not change based on final standings. Finishing in the top 50 percent (50-50’s) on FanDuel or roughly top 40 percent (double ups) on DraftKings will result in a positive outcome. These are the easiest contests to cash and the best place for new players to focus on while building bankroll.

MME/Multi Entry/Mega Multi Entry:

Contests where you are allowed to enter more than 1 lineup in a given contest. These contests can range from 3-entries up to 150 entries per contest. These are the most difficult kinds of contests for people to win and with the exception of the 3 entry max should be avoided by most players who do not have an already established bankroll.

Single Entry Contests:

Contests that only allow you to enter a single lineup in a given contest. All new players and even established players should focus the majority of their bankroll on this style of contest. The potential winnings are not nearly as attractive to new players as the giant MME contests but they are by far the best choice for sustained growth. There are both GPP and Cash versions of single entry contests.

Rake:

Rake is the percentage of the overall prize pool that a given site will remove as profit from what is payed out in the player prize pool. Typically, MME GPP’s and smaller entry fee contests have the highest rake sometimes reaching 16% of entry fees removed while higher entry fee contests can see as low as 8% rake. That 8% will directly affect where the pay line sits as well as payout structure i.e. Top 24% of players will cash as opposed to top 18% or top 5 players winning $10K, $8K, $6K, $4K, $3K as opposed to top 5 players winning $10K, $5K, $2K, $1K, $750. These percentages change every given week and will give us the basis for many of our plays on a given week.

Overlay:

You don’t see this one all that often in NFL contests but overlay does still happen. Overlay happens when GPP’s do not fill up and it provides an additional advantage in your overall chances to win. As an example if a contest that has 10,000 maximum entries and only pays the top 2,000 players that means 20% percent of people will win. If only 8,000 people enter that contest they will still pay the top 2,000 people and you now have a 25% chance to win. That 5% improvement in your odds is huge over the long term for your success. It’s harder to predict but if you have a lineup that you feel very confident in and you watch the contest lobby you can give yourself an edge that not everyone will be looking for.

Floor:

The minimum expected points for a given player in a contest.

Ceiling:

The maximum expected points for a given player in a contest.

Freeroll:

A contest that is offered by DFS sites that are free to enter but still award cash prizes.

$/Point:

Dollars per point; the cost in dollars each projected point costs. For example, if a given players costs $5,000 and is projected for 10 points, you would divide $5,000 by 10 to get $500/point. For this particular formula the lower the number the better.

4x, 5x, 6x…,ect salary:

You see us say this all the time. “I think a player will go 8x”. Simply put it is the cost of the player divided by number of points they score. For example, if a player scores 50 points and has a salary of $10,000 they finished at 5x their salary

Bankroll:

The money you have available to invest in daily fantasy sports.

Correlation:

In DFS, correlation means that two or more players whose outcome are connected. The most common correlation is a QB/WR in NFL. We use correlations often in GPP contests to maximize potential points in your lineup.

Fade:

To fade a player is to avoid using a player in a given slate.

ROI

Return on investment. Applies to how much profit you make relative to money in play.

Stars and Scrubs:

A build structure that involves using several low-min priced players and several near max players. This build is typically most effective when there are several key players who are out due to injury and rest allowing the min prices players to see extended time on the court.

Balanced:

A balanced build in DFS is simply a lineup where most of your players are roughly the same price.

Tilt:

Tilting usually happens when a person’s lineups suffers a catastrophic event (late scratch, poor performance, early injury) that causes a player to essentially lose any chance at cashing. Typically the person proceeds to act belligerent towards the athlete or person(s) who recommended using that player. It could also lead to jamming in more of your bankroll into late slates when making emotional decisions that could lead to poor bankroll management. Note to all new players, don’t be this person.

Train:

The same lineup being entered multiple times into a multi-entry tournament.

Triple-Up:

A contest where winners triple their entry fee when finishing above the cash line.

Cash Line:

The minimum scoring line that you will need to exceed in order to cash in a given event I.E. if you score 300 points and the cash line is 290 than you will finish above the cash line.

Viable:

Used to describe a player that can be expected to return value at his current price in most circumstances i.e. “A.J. Brown is a viable option at $5,000 dollars”.

Stack/Stacking

A pairing of multiple players from the same team or in the same game. This is a common strategy in GPP’s to maximize potential points from a given game. In tournaments a very common stack is to pair a Quarterback with his favorite receiver. In a game stack you would pair a Quarterback with his favorite receiver and then add a opponent or two from the same game.

Thanks for taking the time to look through my Win Daily Sports DFS Glossary of terms. Also lookout for our Sports Betting and Stats glossaries coming soon. Don’t forget to subscribe to the WinDaily Youtube channel and follow @WinDailySports on Twitter to stay current and up to date on all of our fresh new content!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13

Even with games already wiped off the schedule with Covid, we still have a solid eight games tonight. There’s a couple teams on back to backs that will need watching through the day because the chaos will surely come. We have a lot to get to so let’s not waste time and talk about NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($9,500 DK/$9,200 FD) – It’s a bit odd to see Dame scoring under 40 DK points in the past two games, but he’s also that many games removed from hitting almost 70. The Kings and Blazers are top 10 in pace, just like they were a few days ago and I’ll bet that Lillard doesn’t shoot 5-16 from the field like last game against the Kings. Dame Dolla has retained a 30.5% usage rate and a 1.34 FPPM and averages over 26 real points a game. He’s too cheap.

De’Aaron Fox ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD) – We don’t have to go far to find our next candidate, as Fox stands out here as well. He’s fairly cheap for a player of his capabilities in a high pace game and he leads the team in usage. Fox is at a 28.5% rate and a 1.11 FPPM with a true shooting under 53%. Fox is inside the top 12 in drives per game, and that would be a lot easier to get to the hoop if Enes Kanter is starting.

Elf Payton ($6,600 DK/$5,700 FD) – Elf continues to be under $6,000 on FD and I will continue to play him in cash all the time. He gets Brooklyn on a back to back tonight, and they don’t play defense on a good day. The Nets are 22nd in points allowed and fourth in pace, the perfect mix for a player like Elf. He fills up the stat sheet and has the second-highest usage on the team at 24.6% and a 0.94 FPPM.

Trey Burke ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – The Mavericks were PPD in their last game but the situation hasn’t really changed. They are still down Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber and Jalen Brunson. Kristaps Porzingis will play, but almost will certainly not play more than 15 minutes. Burke played just about 20 minutes last game and is still cheap enough to consider just for how thin the Mavericks are.

Honorable Mention – LaMelo Ball, Tyus Jones, Dennis Schroder (keep an eye on the Lakers on a B2B)

*Update* Nickeil Alexander-Walker is projected (not officially) as the starter for Lonzo, and I will be smashing the button next to his name if he’s starting at $3,100 on DK

Shooting Guard

Tim Hardaway ($6,900 DK/$6,800 FD) – On FD, this looks like a spot to possibly avoid the high end in salary. I can’t stomach over $9,000 for C.J. McCollum and Paul George is fair, but not a priority. THJ checks in as a solid option more on FD than DK because of pricing, and last time out Hardaway played 40 minutes. It’s possible that goes to about 35 tonight, but with so many players missing he’s still going to shoot the ball a ton (close to the 20 times he did last game).

Dillon Brooks ($6,600 DK/ $6,300 FD) – Brooks has been the usage leader in the absence of Ja Morant, sitting at 30% on the season. Despite his 48.6% true shooting rate, that doesn’t stop Brooks from hoisting about 17 shots per game, 32nd in the league. Now he gets a spot where the Wolves are eighth in pace and 27th in points allowed. If we’re trying to get a spot right for Brooks to be safe, this checks the boxes.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – Bledsoe does not normally make this article but Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out for this game. With Lonzo off the floor, Bledsoe is at a 1.12 FPPM and his usage kicks up 5.1% to over 23% total. He should likely see a couple more minutes than the 29 he’s averaging on the season as well.

*Update* Bledsoe is questionable

Cam Reddish ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – I think the blowout was the main reason Reddish didn’t play 30 minutes last game. The Hawks are still short-handed with no Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kris Dunn and possibly Rajon Rondo. Even if Rondo plays, that shouldn’t bite into Reddish too badly. Reddish is only at a 49.5% true shooting rate with these players off the court, but he does have a respectable 19.5% usage and a 0.79 FPPM.

Honorable Mention – PG13, SGA, Derrick Rose, Tyrese Haliburton

Small Forward

Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 DK/$9,200 FD) – This is more on FD because when is Kawhi ever this cheap? We typically steer clear when George and Kawhi are both active but this is still the Klaw who has a 29.6% usage and 1.30 FPPM on the season. The pace matchup is not what we look for as the Pelicans are 25th in pace, but there’s also nobody on the other side who’s going to defend him all that well. Brandon Ingram will try, but with limited success I’m betting.

Gordon Hayward ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – Every once in a while, Hayward stumbles but he’s the leading scorer on the Hornets. That alone has to catch our eye now that he’s back under $8,000 on both sites. Hayward also leads the team in usage and is the only one who is over a 25% usage. I’d likely make the effort to go up to Kawhi but if you can’t find that extra $1,200 Hayward is a safer option in this range.

R.J. Barrett ($7,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s way too cheap on FD and we will be talking about 3 Knicks in this spot. Barrett leads the league in minutes and is right near Brooks in shots per game. This is a big time pace up spot for him so even if the shot is questionable, he’ll have to find some production. His true shooting is 4.5% lower than it was in his rookie year and as a 20-year old, you have to expect some speed bumps.The minus are the real difference maker and I don’t think you’re wrong to play two of the three main Knicks tonight.

Honorable Mention – LeBron James, Harrison Barnes

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,100 DK/$9,100 FD) – I’m likely going to decide between Randle and one of Elf or Barrett tonight, because Randle is in a smash spot coming off a poor outing. He’s just off to a monster start with a 27.5% usage rate and a 1.26 FPPM. Randle is in the top 10 in rebounds per game and they’ll need that with the Nets being inside the top 10 as a team. The 1.26 FPPM should show right back up again in this game.

Brandon Clarke ($5,800 DK/$6,300 FD) – He just always seems to fit on FD and that may be the case tonight. Anthony Davis is marked as questionable after last night, and may actually miss the game. There’s going to be very few safe options at this position and Clarke is that. He has a 21% usage rate and a 0.87 FPPM. He’s close to averaging a steal and a block per game, which helps out a lot on FD. He’s a boring option but boring can work for cash.

Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – RoCo has only scored double digit real points once this year, but he typically still scores over 20 FD on a nightly basis. Covington is strictly a three-and-D wing at this stage and with this team, but the pace of this game keeps him involved enough to consider. This would be mostly a FD play.

James Johnson ($3,900 DK/$4,200 FD) – Johnson pretty much rounds out or Dallas value plays, and I want reinforcement from the model to be sure. The Mavericks welcome back Porzingis but I think we should still see about 20-22 minutes from Johnson tonight. If Porzingis doesn’t have a big restriction, we need to back off this play. We’re only talking a 34 minute sample, but the 1.32 FPPM when all the Dallas players are off the floor is intriguing at this salary on either site.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, P.J. Washington, Zion, John Collins

Center

Karl Anthony-Towns ($9,800 DK/$10,500 FD) – He may well turn into a building block for me on DK, where he should almost never be under $10,000. KAT hasn’t played a whole lot this season but the 26.8% usage and a 1.57 FPPM speaks for itself, and he’s too cheap. Memphis is 10th in rebounds per game but KAT sits at fifth per game in boards and has over 70 touches per game. He should be able to have his way down low or wherever he’d like tonight. KAT is really the only pay-up at center on this slate.

Richaun Holmes ($6,400 DK/$6,400 FD) – With Marvin Bagley being invisible this year, Holmes has a bit more safety than normal. You’re not going to get the 50 FD last game since he’s not going to block six shots, but this is still a good spot. Portland has defended the paint well with just the fifth-fewest points allowed in that range, but Holmes will need to be on the floor a good bit with the Nurkic/Kanter combo on the other side. Holmes has a very solid 1.07 FPPM.

Enes Kanter ($4,800 DK/$5,300 FD) – IF and ONLY IF Jusuf Nurkic is out, Kanter would likely draw the start and be guaranteed 22-24 minutes. He’s already at 19 a night and someone would need to replace the Nurkic minutes. With him off the floor, Kanter has a 1.30 FPPM so far and the Kings are 17th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Kanter already average 6.6 paint touches a game, a number certain to go up if he’s starting.

*Update* Al Horford is out for the Thunder, and Isaiah Roby is likely to draw the start. The last time he did this, he played 28 minutes and scored almost 34 DK points. He’s an excellent value on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Jarrett Allen, Mitchell Robinson (you could run Randle and Robinson to attack the Nets in the paint), Mason Plumlee

DK CORE – DeAndre Jordan, KAT, KD, Joe Harris

FD CORE – Jordan, KD, Harris, Lillard

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NHL Season DFS Preview

Jason Mezrahi 4 years ago

written by Jason Mezrahi

Ghost, Rich, Allan, and Matt breakdown broadcast their special NHL Season DFS Preview podcast.

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4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/12

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems features a much smaller NBA slate on tap, but there are plenty of places to attack early on, in addition to the news we will surely receive later on in the day. I have excluded Miami/Philadelphia from the breakdown since the game is unlikely to play, but I will have core pieces from that one on DK should it go on as scheduled since FD has already removed it.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis. Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Stephen Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)

While the inconsistency may worry some, I see Curry’s sheer volume as a must-have on tonight’s NBA slate. Barring any news indicating that the Miami-Philadelphia game will play, this slate will be pure stars and scrubs, where the former is quite shallow compared to the latter. Sporting a 32.6% usage rate, Curry is still averaging 28.6 PPG despite four games of 20 or less points. His ceiling is as good as it gets on a slate like this, along with a former teammate.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $8,600 DK)

Fresh off a 38-minute performance versus Sacramento less than 24 hours ago, Malcolm Brogdon will have to get right back to work here with the Pacers likely without Victor Oladipo on the second half of a back-to-back. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate with Oladipo off the floor, Brogdon will be in for a big workload on both the offensive and defensive end of the court tonight, where he will look to continue his 5-game streak of 20 or more points and 7 or more assists.

Dennis Schroder ($5,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

A prized offseason acquisition for the defending NBA Champions, Dennis Schroder has been exactly what the Lakers had hoped for and more. Sporting a 22.7% usage rate on the season, he has slotted nicely in the starting lineup and has relived both LeBron and AD of some pressure on the offensive end, where he is currently averaging 14.3/4.1/5 on 42.3% shooting. Considering he has played 34 minutes in back-to-back games, there is no doubt the Lakers will rely on him yet again versus a small Houston Rockets lineup.

Also Consider:

Dejounte Murray ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)
Mike Conley ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($10,400 FD / $10,800 DK)

Although Harden has not surpassed 21 points in his last four, he can be in for a big night should John Wall miss this game. In two games without John Wall this season, Harden has averaged 40/5/12.5 across 37 MPG, shooting 59.46% from the field and 45.83% from deep. With the massive price drop on FD, make sure to take advantage on tonight’s NBA slate.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

After a slow start for his rebuilding Thunder, SGA has finally hit his stride. Averaging 25.67 points in his last three across 35.67 MPG, SGA has shot 57.45% from the field and 50% from deep in the same span, resulting in three straight wins for OKC. With a soft matchup versus the Spurs on tap, there is no reason why SGA can’t keep it rolling here tonight.

Caris LeVert ($7,900 FD / $7,600 DK)

I’d like this play a bit more with Kevin Durant out in addition to Kyrie Irving, but we can’t always have our cake and eat it too. Even with Durant on the court, LeVert can still be affective despite possibly being staggered with the best player on the Nets since he will have plenty of opportunity to run the offense. Although I am not a fan overall of the price, the pickings are slim to none at the ‘2’ on FD, where we need to roster two, and the sixth man is still averaging 18.4 PPG, including 65 FGA in his last three.

Also Consider:

Hamidou Diallo ($5,500 FD / $5,300 DK)
Jordan Clarkson ($5,200 FD / $5,600 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,100 FD / $9,400 DK)

He’s a stone cold lock for me on this NBA slate considering Kyrie Irving is slated to miss yet another game for these Brooklyn Nets. Sporting a 31% usage rate on the season, Durant sees a notable 5% uptick with Kyrie off the floor and has not scored less than 29 points since December 22nd.

LeBron James ($9,900 FD / $10,000 DK)

Should John Wall miss this game for the Houston Rockets, my main build will likely start with a trio of Durant, Harden, and a Laker stud. Sporting a 31.9% usage rate on the season, LeBron saw his first game under 20 points in the new year, and I’m not banking on the fact that this happens again in this matchup. The Rockets’ defense rating is ranked in the bottom third of the NBA and LeBron will be able to take advantage tonight.

Keldon Johnson ($6,600 FD / $6,200 DK)

With the Spurs nursing multiple injuries throughout the season, Keldon Johnson has stepped up for Pop & Co. Tonight, without DeRozan in the lineup, Johnson will see a notable uptick in offense looks behind Aldridge and Murray, where he’ll be able to maximize his 11 FGA per game versus an OKC team that has been decimated by wings all season long.

Also Consider:

Cedi Osman ($5,100 FD / $6,000 DK)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)

Getting AD this cheap won’t last for long, and should John Wall miss this game, as mentioned previously, my main 1-2 punch will be Harden with one of LeBron or AD to go along with Kevin Durant. While his rebounding opportunities have been lower than his career average this season, AD is in a prime spot to see Christian Wood all night long, which could easily lead to a 30-point double-double for one of the best big men in the NBA.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

I’m curious to see his ownership on this NBA slate with AD only $200 more, but Sabonis will remain a GPP play for me for as long as he is breathing. Sporting a 24.6% usage rate for the Pacers this season, he’s averaging a remarkable 22.2/12.4/5.8 across 37.8 MPG – heavy minutes, involvement on the offense end, and a matchup versus a soft Warriors interior is all Sabonis needs to smash in this spot.

Also Consider:

LaMarcus Aldridge ($7,200 FD / $6,300 DK)
Christian Wood ($8,100 FD / $7,900 DK)
Draymond Green ($5,700 FD / $5,600 DK)

Centers

Nikola Jokic ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)
Andre Drummond ($9,800 FD / $9,100 DK)
Rudy Gobert ($8,000 FD / $8,200 DK)

Others to Consider:

Myles Turner ($7,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
Montrezl Harrell ($5,800 FD / $6,000 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12

This slate is kind of weird right off the bat. On FanDuel, it’s only a five game slate as they elected to leave off the Heat at Sixers game. They may be onto something, because I would be surprised if that game got played. The Sixers are still crippled and running NBA 2K players, and the Heat have five players that aren’t on the injury report right now. We’re skipping that game for now, but will add it to NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12 if it plays because those rotations will be very appealing.

*NOTE* The Miami Heat are playing, and only have eight players. We’re going to have quite a few in the core for DK, as they are the highest projected ownerships on the slate.

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,400 FD) – We’ll get official word during the day, but the Pacers already have Victor Oladipo listed as questionable on this back to back. That leaves Brogdon and Damontas Sabonis (more later on him) in utter smash spots. The Warriors continue to play at the second-fastest pace and are in the bottom five in real points allowed. With Dipo off the floor, Brogdon is at a 1.44 FPPM in a 42 minute sample. Can we say late night hammer?

Dejounte Murray ($7,200 DK/$7,500 FD) – He looks expensive given what he did just last game, but Murray is still a prime cash target. DeMar DeRozan remains out tonight, and with that scenario Murray typically shines. He has a 28.2% usage rate and a 1.21 FPPM even with a 48.6% true shooting rate. Both the Spurs and the Thunder are in the top 15 in pace, and I don’t think Murray goes 5-15 from the field again. I don’t want to turn my back on a talented player at 36 minutes just because of one poor game.

Patty Mills ($5,100 DK/$4,300 FD) – The price is really climbing on DK, but on FD this might be as low as you can go. He played 30 minutes himself last game, and chucked 13 three pointers. He may have only hit three, but the nuclear potential was there and with Derrick White still out, the Spurs may continue to lean on Mills. He has a usage rate over 22% with DDR and White off the floor, which is perfectly fine on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Jamal Murray (mostly DK since he’s $6,900)

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – Still only $8,000 on DK, SGA hasn’t moved in price despite three straight games of 50+ DK points. The great sing is he’s starting to find the secondary stats to go along with scoring. He’s had at least five dimes and boards in the last three games, and he needs to continue that to justify this price tag. The spot with the Spurs is a pace up spot and the production is starting to follow the 27.6% usage rate.

Lonnie Walker ($5,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – It’s going to be interesting to see where the projected ownership here is. Walker was the lead scorer in the least game, and his price is right next to Mills. On FD, I expect pretty heavy chalkiness since the SG position can be a little thin. Walker surprisingly only has a 60 minute sample when DDR and White are off the floor this season, but the 30.1% usage is eye-opening. It can be a little scary playing these scoring guys in cash, but on FD alone he likely is a need to roster play in a fast-paced game.

Honorable Mention – Damyean Dotson will be a very enticing target if Collin Sexton remains out. Past that, let’s see how the day unfolds and update this position when we have a clearer picture.

Small Forward

Kevin Durant ($9,400 DK/$10,100 FD) – KD is probably on a burner Twitter account right now, bashing DK for their disrespectful price tag. He almost hit 60 DK last game in a whopping 38 minutes, so the Achilles is a non-issue. Kyrie Irving remains out and I honestly hope he’s alright at this point. It’s easy for Kyrie to be the butt of jokes, but mental health isn’t and hopefully this turns out to not be a serious issue.

Anyways, for tonight KD is my number one play on the board and there’s not much of a scenario that he won’t be. Durant is number one in the league in points per possession on post ups. Not only is Denver the ninth-worst in that category, Durant will not be guarded by Dusty Paul Millsap. KD is at a 36.7% usage and 1.61 FPPM without Kyrie and Spencer Dinwiddie on the floor.

Justin Holiday ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – He’s not exactly big salary relief on DK, but he has been Steady Eddie in the past few games as he’s never dipped under 22 DK the past four. With the Pacers in their current state, Holiday has the most minutes and a 0.95 FPPM. The usage is always going to stink for him but you’re hoping the pace of this game pays off.

Joe Harris ($5,400 DK/$4,900 FD) – Harris over the last three games has been volatile but we’re after the minutes. He’s played at least 28 in each game, and last game saw him shoot just 4-12 from the floor. He’s only at a 0.86 FPPM with the Nets as is tonight, and that’s not spectacular. Denver is ninth-worst in three point field goal percentage given up, so this is the right style of spot to target a 30 minute Harris with three point upside.

Honorable Mention – Kelly Oubre, Will Barton

Power Forward

Damontas Sabonis ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – We talked yesterday about how the paint touches and touches in general are through the roof for Sabonis. The Warriors are bottom 10 in rebounds per game, and also sit 28th in points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Taking Dipo off the floor has been a boon for Sabonis as he’s at a 1.56 FPPM and a 32.4% usage rate. Wheels up.

LaMarcus Aldridge ($6,300 DK/$7,200 FD) – My early lean is LMA/Walker on DK, then Murray/Walker on FD because Aldridge is a little pricey on FD. Still, the injury concerns are behind him with 31, 32 and 36 minutes in the last three games. Aldridge is right with Walker at a 29.9% usage rate but LMA is only at a 41.5% true shooting. The veteran for the Spurs is in the top 20 in points per possession on post ups on the season, 1.00. The Thunder give up the sixth-most points per possession on that play type, and Aldridge is back at PF eligibility on DK as well.

Draymond Green ($5,600 DK/$5,700 FD) – Dray continues to get back towards his minutes trending towards where we need them to. He’s hanging around 30-32 and just missed a triple-double last game. Sure, he’s not likely (i.e. ever) going to drop a 25 point triple-double but the Pacers are ranked lower in rebounds per game than the Warriors. Anytime Dray is under $6,000, I have some interest but it might mostly be on FD since I need two.

Honorable Mention – Anthony Davis (just doesn’t seem like the Lakers guys really push themselves right now), Trey Lyles

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,400 FD) – He really seems like a luxury spend right now, but I will have some lineups with him. I think he’s more GPP than anything because I have other priorities but the Joker is one of the safest best on a nightly basis. The issue is he has zero ceiling left and I mean zero. He leads the team in usage at 29% and the FPPM is spiked at 1.60. I just doubt we can fit him without making too many sacrifices.

Al Horford ($5,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – Horford was chalky last slate on FD and I think that is in the range of outcomes once again. Do I want to play Horford? Not exactly, but there’s not a plethora of options. Horford is second on the team in usage among starters at 20.4% and sits at a 0.99 FPPM. The Spurs are 29th in rebounds in the paint and this is mostly “let’s eat the chalk and play others we want to play” options.

Honorable Mention – Both Andre Drummond (now questionable, trending towards maybe out) and Rudy Gobert check in as safe options if you can’t get to Jokic and don’t want Horford. Both of these centers are in the top three in paint touches per game and rebounding chances per game. They are also top eight in points in the paint, so they’re going to square off all night long. On DK, Meyers Leonard and maybe Precious Achiuwa could be an option if the Heat play but we’ll need to see.

DK Core

Tyler Herro, Kelly Olynyk, Precious Achiuwa, Kevin Durant

With all the value, we’re going to need another stud and right now that looks like Sabonis.

FD Core

Malcolm Brogdon, Damontas Sabonis, Trey Lyles, Justin Holiday

It sets up differently on FD, where the Pacers duo takes center stage. Lyles is a punt at PF and Holiday fits in at SF to afford other stud plays like SGA, Durant or Jokic.

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/11

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

Mojito Mondays are always a great day to be alive, especially when we have this juicy of an NBA slate!

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($11,500 FD / $11,300 DK)

Sporting a 37.2% usage rate on the season, Luka Doncic may be one of, if not the most relied upon player in the NBA right now. Already without Kristaps Porzingis in the early stages of the season, Dallas will once again be without Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson tonight. With Doncic slated to be facing a combination of Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe, he may very well be the highest scoring player on the NBA slate, and with the amount of value available to us already, it’s hard to pass up on this spot for the third-year pro. Game PPD

Damian Lillard ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)

He’ll surely come in underowned on this NBA slate given the player listed above and right below him are in tremendous spots, but Damian Lillard will get to have his way with the Toronto Raptors defense tonight. The main concern around Dame in the early stages of the season has been his efficiency, but he has proven to exploit vulnerable defenses, including the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Houston, all of whom allowed the All-Pro to score over 30.

Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,400 DK)

This price on FD is simply laughable. Trae Young has had back-to-back subpar performances, but the fact that you can get a lead guard on a high-octane offense with a 32% usage rate at this price just does not make sense. In a game where the 76ers will be severely shorthanded due to COVID tracing, Young will not have to deal with a taller, more physically imposing Ben Simmons on defense, and instead will likely see rotational players all night long. Averaging 24.7 PPG despite shooting 40.9% from the field and 28% from deep, the efficiency will improve tonight and I’m all in on Trae Young.

Also Consider:

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $8,300 DK)
LaMelo Ball ($7,400 FD / $7,000 DK)

Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal ($10,100 FD / $9,900 DK)

Not sure if there’s anyone more frustrated in the NBA right now. Averaging just over 1.60 FPPM with Russell Westbrook off the floor, Bradley Beal is a candidate to lead the slate in points scored – and yes, that includes Luka Doncic. Rocking a 38.8% usage rate, I will continue to iterate that this is Beal’s team, and with them being the 30th-ranked team in the league in defensive rating, they need to score in bunches every night, and it begins with their star SG.

Devin Booker ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)

I mention it all the time that we need to target games with fast pace and poor defensive play. Enter the Washington Wizards, Booker’s opponent tonight, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the league’s worst defensive rating. With Bradley Beal concerned with his offensive play and Booker’s near 30% usage rate, look for the young guard to exploit the Wizards defense all night long.

Tyrese Maxey ($5,200 FD / $4,700 DK)

Listen, let’s make one thing clear right off the bat, this play will be chalky. I usually don’t write up chalky plays – do not expect a repeat performance where Maxey shot the ball 33 times now that Embiid is back in the lineup. Nonetheless, I have interest in the young guard because the 76ers do not have another ball handler with Ben Simmons out of this game. With Shake Milton, Seth Curry, and Tobias Harris all also out, look for Maxey to be one of the safest value plays on this NBA slate.

Also Consider:

CJ McCollum ($8,900 FD / $8,800 DK)
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 FD / $6,200 DK)

Small Forwards

Brandon Ingram ($8,800 FD / $8,600 DK)

He’s cooled off as of late but it’s certainly not because of the lack of involvement, rather a lack of efficiency. Brandon Ingram can be wildly inconsistent, some night shooting 30% from the field, where others he shoots well over 60% — which one we will get tonight is unknown, but with Dallas running thin on the wings, no one will be able to measure up to BI’s wingspan, making him an intriguing GPP option on this NBA slate. Game PPD

RJ Barrett ($6,900 FD / $7,100 DK)

The sheer volume and minutes are making RJ Barrett in play on essentially almost, if not every NBA slate. Playing a whopping 38.1 MPG, Barrett has been thriving in Coach Thibodeau’s system to the tune of 16.5 PPG and 7.4 RPG. If he can improve on his 37.4% shooting, Barrett will take his game to the next level, something he will be able to achieve here versus a mediocre Charlotte defense.

De’Andre Hunter ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)

Playing 34 minutes or more in his past three games, Hunter will be relied upon heavily tonight as the Hawks will be without both Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic on the wing. Averaging a career high 16.4 PPG, Hunter has really begun to develop into the 3-and-D wing prospects we thought him to be coming out of UVA and is still at a respectable price on both sites.

Also Consider:

Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)
Harrison Barnes ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Julius Randle ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)

The price is getting out of hand now, but Randle remains an elite play for NBA GPPs as he continues to pay off for us. Rocking a 27.6% usage rate this season, Randle is truly blossoming in his contract year, averaging 23.2/11.8/7.1 on 50.9% shooting and has carried the Knicks into a playoff spot thus far. You know I love to attack PJ Washington’s defense, and guess who Randle is facing all night long? Wheels up

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)

You really thought I wouldn’t write him up? If there’s an NBA slate where the Pacers are featured, Sabonis will be here. A 24.3% usage rate has never stopped Sabonis from crushing stat lines, and he is now averaging 21.6/12.6/6.1 on 56.3% shooting, including a whopping 50 points and 36 rebounds in his last two games.

Also Consider:

Brandon Clarke ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)
Cedi Osman ($5,100 FD / $5,900 DK)

Centers

Joel Embiid ($9,700 FD / $9,800 DK)

Barring any health restrictions, Embiid should carry the 76ers tonight: without the likes of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris on the floor, his fantasy output has been outright ridiculous; a near 38% usage rate, over 1.8 FPPM, and over 21 FGA per 36 minutes. Lock and load the big man on this NBA slate if you can afford to do so.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,000 FD / $8,900 DK)

Coming off back-to-back double-doubles for the Magic, Vucevic will continue to be on my GPP radar for the foreseeable future. I’ve continued to stress the fact that he is criminally underrated, and with Embiid drawing all of the ownership, if you’re not going down to the target listed below, you need to consider Vuc. Averaging 22/11.1 thus far, Vuc has been as efficient as it gets from the field, shooting 50.9% from the field and 42.1% from deep.

Deandre Ayton ($6,700 FD / $7,300 DK)

Who on Earth is guarding this man tonight? Robin Lopez? Mo Wagner? This price point is the most attractive one on this NBA slate for me thus far, as Deandre Ayton finds himself in a tremendous game environment, featuring no defense and a fast pace, with a glorious matchup in the paint. Despite the low usage rate, Ayton is still averaging a 12.9/11.7 double-double for the Suns and is shooting nearly 59% from the field. Giddy up!

Others to Consider:

Andre Drummond ($9,900 FD / $9,200 DK)
Myles Turner ($7,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400 FD / $6,600 DK)
Mitchell Robinson ($6,200 FD / $5,500 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11

Adam Strangis 4 years ago

written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11

Yesterday was a madhouse with a game getting postponed, players out everywhere and a lot of value to sort through. Hopefully this eight game slate is a bit more normal, at least as far as NBA goes. Let’s all hope for a more straightforward day and get the base set for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11!

What We Look For In Cash Formats

High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – He’s been a massive floor play the past two games (hence under $9,000 on FD, which hasn’t happened in forever) but this is a good spot to breakout. Ben Simmons has already been ruled out, depriving the Sixers of their best defender on Young. Atlanta is playing slower this year at 14th in pace but the Sixers are fifth in pace thus far. At least eight players who should be in the rotation for these teams are out, having this game as a prime target with condensed minutes. Young has a 31.3% usage rate and a 1.13 FPPM with the Hawks in their current roster state. That comes with a ridiculously low 48.2% true shooting. Put the blinders on for his last couple games and play him.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 DK/$8,400 FD) – If you can’t stomach Trae and don’t want to spend on Damian Lillard at the high end, Brogdon is the next man up. The Win Daily family are big proponents of Damontas Sabonis but Brogdon has flourished as well without T.J. Warren. The Brogdon/Sabonis duo are second and fourth in minutes per night, which we love. The Pacers point guard is 15th in drives per game, and Sacramento is 26th in points to the point guard and 15th in points in the paint. The Kings are also top eight in pace, making this a big pace up spot for the 20th ranked Pacers. Brogdon should thrive in this game environment in a big way.

Trey Burke ($4,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis might make his season debut but I’m not sure I care for Burke. Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Jalen Brunson all remain out for the Mavs tonight and that means Burke could go nuts again. I’m never a huge fan of chasing the outliers, and 11-13 with a 7-8 from three qualifies. However, Burke still played 21 minutes and should still provide a solid 25 DK since Dallas still needs shooting off the bench. Burke is still too cheap for his role tonight, with or without Zinger. He won’t jump in from a one injury and play 30-32 minutes the first game back.

Raul Neto/Ish Smith ($4,600/$4,400 on DK/$4,200/$4,300 on FD) – So both these players are here because I think this is interesting – Smith played 28 minutes last game to Neto’s 21. I don’t always care who starts, it’s who’s going to be on the floor more. This could be a good spot where Neto is the comfortable choice but Ish is the better play. Without Westbrook on the floor, they are in a dead heat at about a 0.97 FPPM. That’s with Smith having just a 15.5% usage and a 40.3% true shooting rate to a 59% true shooting from Neto. Phoenix is playing slow but there’s too much opportunity here.

Honorable Mention – Dame, Elf Payton. I’m afraid of LaMelo’s price for just 30 minutes. One of these games he’s not going to pay off and now we’re talking $7,000. That’s a lot of salary to tie up to a player that recorded a triple-double and still only earned 31 minutes.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($9,900 DK/$10,100 FD) – We were all ready to put Beal into our lineups last game, but health protocols ruled him out late. Look, he’s expensive and the pace/defensive matchup stinks. Beal still has a 38.8% usage rate and a 1.60 FPPM with Beal off the court, so he should be expensive. Beal leads the league in FGA and two-point makes so far, and that’s with Westbrook playing most of the season. On top of that, he’s ninth in minutes per game. You just don’t pass up this many chances to put fantasy points on the board.

Devin Booker ($7,900 DK/$7,600 FD) – This might be more along the lines of a GPP play, but I think this is about as safe a spot for Booker as we can have with the Suns fully healthy in the backcourt. The Wizards continue to run at the fastest pace in the league and give up the most points, making it a prime spot for Booker. It’s kind of wild to see him have a 29.1% usage rate and only a 0.98 FPPM. I mean, his usage is 9% higher than Chris Paul but CP3 is at a 1.07 FPPM. Booker literally leads the league in raw minutes player, and is 12th in per game. He’s attempting two fewer field goals per game and two fewer free throws per game. The pace should make up for those factors tonight.

Tyrese Maxey ($4,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – I was going to talk about Tyrese Haliburton, who’s a good play in a vacuum. However, I think the chalk should very much fall on Maxey. Joel Embiid is probable, but the Sixers are without Shake Milton, Seth Curry, Tobias Harris and Simmons. That equals to about 45 field goal attempts per game that are missing. FORTY. FIVE. Maxey filled the bucket last game out with 39 real points and played 44 minutes. Even though that came without Biid, he’s too cheap and there’s far too much offense missing for Philly to pass him up. I think the FD approach is Beal, Maxey and move on. He’s locked up on DK for me as well, pending any weird news.

Honorable Mention – Dillon Brooks, Collin Sexton (if active)

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – He likely wouldn’t be a high priority for me, but Ingram is becoming safer and safer this year. Why is that the case when he’s taking almost the exact same amount of shots? It’s easy to find, because Ingram is taking two more free throws per game and added roughly two more rebounds and two more assists per contest. That might not seem like much, but that’s about 8 fantasy points a night tacked on. Both teams are just 24th or lower in pace, but Ingram is playing about 35 minutes a night and continues to add to his game. He’s more of a luxury spend as we sit.

Tim Hardaway Jr. ($6,700 DK/$5,800 FD)- I’m not truly a fan of the DK price but the FD price is just egregious. The Mavericks are in a carbon copy of last game where THJ played 40 minutes, scored 36 real points (told you THJ is here to get buckets) and he took 20 shots. He’s carrying about a 28% usage rate without the Mavericks players on the floor in a 50 minute sample size the year. I can’t find much of a reason for anything to change tonight, even if Porzingis plays a little bit. There’s little reason to not just plug and play on FD.

Danny Green ($4,700 DK/$4,800 FD) – I told you we’d be back to Philly, as Green is in a great spot as well. He played 36 minutes on Saturday, and that’s interesting enough at this price range. Now take into account that he had a 23.2% usage and shot just 4-17 and put up 27 DK points. Sure, Embiid is going to suck up some of that usage but he’s not going to take everything. There’s just too many shots and minutes for Philly open to look past Green as a strong option.

Cam Reddish ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – We might be able to buy low on Reddish, as he come off the bench and played 34 minutes last game. That was when Bogdan Bogdanovic suffered his knee injury, so Reddish should remain as a heavy minutes player. The shot is not impressive so far this season at just 34.7% from the field and 29.2% from three. That doesn’t always stop Reddish from shooting, as he attempted 13 triples last game. In a pace up spot for 30+ minutes, we could do worse than this play.

Honorable Mention – Gordon Hayward, RJ Barrett, maybe Rui Hachimura but I would just play Green likely

Power Forward

Damontas Sabonis ($9,300 DK/$9,200 FD) – Pace up spot for the talented big man? Check. Nobody to really guard him in the paint? Check. Sitting sixth in paint touches, second in overall touches and first in rebounding chances per game? Check, check and check. Sabonis is everything we could want in cash, and I give him a lean over Giannis and Julius Randle on FanDuel.

I absolutely love him in this spot and will have the Brogdon/Sabonis pairing in GPP if nothing else. Brogdon is a pick and roll ball handler 43.7% of the time and Sabonis is seventh in attempts as the pick and roll man. He’s only shooting 37% on those attempts, but the Kings are eighth in points per possession defending that play type. Give me this Pacers pair in GPP, cash and wherever else.

John Collins ($7,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – This is definitely a spot where I think having Collins and Clint Capela is going to be a problem for the opposition. Losing Harris and Simmons hurts the defense a lot, and Embiid is going to have to fight for boards and in the paint with both these guys. Collins can foul a lot, but I think that factor is mitigated a small bit with Capela. Now, the price is still high and he’s not a primary target. But he’s playing 30-ish minutes a game and has recorded two straight double-doubles. He’s got a chance to do it again in this pace up spot and his 1.04 FPPM is solid, if not spectacular.

Aaron Gordon ($6,600 DK/$6,600 FD) – Don’t confuse this with it being a good matchup. The Bucks do push the pace at sixth-fastest, but they are also fifth in rebounding per game. What you’re hoping for here is two-fold. One, Gordon needs to play the 35 minutes he did against Dallas. That was great to finally see, and Gordon has a 0.98 FPPM on a 25.6% usage with just a 47.6% true shooting rate so far. Secondly, getting hot from deep would be super useful. He’s only at 31.6% but does have a recent game with six made three’s. Milwaukee allows over 40% of field goal attempts against them from three. Gordon should thrive here with another 32-35 minutes.

James Johnson ($4,100 DK/$4,200 FD) – I’m going to let the model check me on this one, but Johnson stands out as a value at first glance. He only has a 36 minute sample size with the Mavericks in their current state, but the 1.25 FPPM is nothing to sneer at, nor is the 18.5% usage. The fact he comes off the bench should mean he can get some the without Zion Williamson on the court, which could derail him otherwise. Let’s see what tomorrow brings, but he’s on my radar.

Honorable Mention – Zion, Cedi Osman (don’t hate me for it), PJ Washington

Center

Joel Embiid ($9,800 DK/$9,700 FD) – If we’re into all the Philly value, it has to stand that Embiid makes too much sense as the last man standing. It’s a pace up spot and there’s three of the four other starters missing. There’s only a three minute sample size with those three off and Biid on, where he had a 38% usage rate and a 1.82 FPPM.

Now I’m not sitting here saying we should just expect that to extrapolate out, but come on. How is his usage and FPPM not going to be through the roof here? There’s no reason he shouldn’t take 20+ shots. When we take Simmons and Tobias off last season, Biid is at a 1.64 FPPM. He’s under $10,000. Biid needs to be the priority on FD especially in my eyes. I’m really only going to talk about one other center, then put a couple in honorable mention because Biid is that important to cash builds.

Mo Wagner ($3,600 DK/$4,000 FD) – He’s really a cash option on DK only, since we can play him and Embiid together. It’s a real bummer that Thomas Bryant tore his ACL, but that leaves Robin Lopez and Wagner to soak up the center minutes. For those of you that don’t know, Wagner is a 23-year old in his third year and can actually shoot. His true shooting over his limited career is over 60%. Last season (not the best comparison), he had a 0.99 FPPM when Bryant was off the floor over 800 minutes. This season is only about 45 minutes, but the FPPM is up to 1.15. He’s going to split time with Robin Lopez, but is the way more fantasy relevant player. I would try him in a GPP on FD but nothing more.

Honorable Mention – Deandre Ayton (should smash in a high pace spot, with limited defense), Andre Drummond (only if Biid were out), Jusuf Nurkic

DK Core

Embiid, Mike Scott, Maxey, Danny Green – Yes, this is four Sixers but they are checking in as the four highest owned projected plays on the slate. It’s a rare time, but I’m running four, and then Beal is the next man in for me.

FD Core

Beal, Maxey, Sabonis, Danny Green – We all know how I feel on Embiid tonight 🙂

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA

NBA GPP Picks 1/10

billyr011199@gmail.com 4 years ago

written by billyr011199@gmail.com

NBA GPP Picks 1/10

Well yesterday’s slate ended up being wild after all the news with star players being ruled out like Giannis and Russell Westbrook. It was an extremely high scoring night for NBA DFS. We are back tonight though with another edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/10 a six game Sunday night slate. It could be just a crazy of a slate as yesterday as Boston could be missing several players. We also don’t know what the deal with Kyrie is or if Anthony Davis misses another game as he is still listed questionable. Lakers vs Rockets, Wolves vs Spurs will be my main games to target, while also looking towards Boston for Value. In this article I will be referring to DraftKings pricing. Based upon my research I will select two players from each position that are great fantasy plays for tonight’s NBA slate.

Dejounte Murray – ($6,800)

Well at this point the Wolves are about the dream matchup as they rank dead last in defensive efficiency. They have given up the fourth most fantasy points to point guards and just allowed Dame a massive game in three quarters. Murray has averaged a usage rate of 24% good for second on the Spurs. Adding the Wolves are the seventh fastest team in the league and Murray just went for over 50 fantasy points in the same matchup last evening.

D’Angelo Russell – ($8,100)

Even with Towns return Russell still grabbed a usage rate of 28.4%. He get’s the same opponent as he saw last night in San Antonio who has allowed the most fantasy points to point guards this season. San Antonio ranks 21^st in defensive rating and has been the ninth fastest team in the league. Although Russell struggled in this matchup last night I will play him as that will likely drive ownership down even with this glorious matchup.

Jeff Teague – ($4,400)

As I mentioned earlier Boston has loads of players questionable due to health protocols and Tatum is listed doubtful already. In Boston’s previous game Teague slotted third in usage at 21.3% behind just Brown and Tatum. With Tatum already doubtful a load of usage is up for grabs not to mention Jaylen Brown is also doubtful. Looking at Boston’s usage with just Tatum and the other Celtics off the floor, Teague sees a usage increase of 5.7% albeit a small sample size. The minutes and usage available will allow Teague to pay off this price tag even against a good Heat team.

D’Angelo Russell – ($8,100)

Even with the return of Towns, Russell still saw a usage rate near 30%. San Antonio currently ranks 21^st in defense rating and is playing at the eighth fastest pace. Russell has a premiere matchup here as the Spurs have surrendered the most fantasy points to point guards on the season. I know Russell didn’t hit value last night that should drive down his owndership for the rematch. With an average usage of 29% and this beautiful matchup against the Spurs, Russell has another great opportunity to have a big fantasy day.

Jimmy Butler – ($7,300)

Having a fantastic game against the depleted Wizards team was no surprise last night for Butler. He draws yet again another injury riddled team in the Celtics who have multiple players questionable or ruled out. The two main rim protectors will be out and one of the candidates to guard Butler is doubtful in Tatum. Butler is averaging a usage rate of 28.7% in his last two games one of those games was against Boston in which he saw a 34.7% usage rate. If he gets near that usage rate in this matchup against a thin Boston team he should crush value.

Demar Derozan – ($7,700)

Last night against the Wolves Derozan tied his highest point total with the Spurs. He went for 51 fantasy points while scoring 38 real points in route to a overtime victory. I personally watched the game and the Wolves had no one to guard Demar, even on ISO’s he just got right to the rim. In that victory Derozan amassed his highest usage rate of the season at 29.9%. As I mentioned in the Dejounte Murray section the wolves are a dream matchup as they are the worst defensive rated team in the NBA. After playing 44 minutes last night Derozan and some other Spurs could be rest candidates be aware of that.

Julius Randle – ($9,500)

In his most recent game against the Thunder Randle saw his lowest minute total of the season at just 31. First half foul trouble was a factor in that. As we know Tom Thibodeau led teams typically have tight rotations with starters seeing heavy minutes. Prior to the Thunder game Randle’s lowest minute total was 35. This Denver team hasn’t been good defensively to start the year ranking 25^th in defensive rating. With Robinson playing center for the Knicks it is likely that Randle avoids Jokic defense as well for majority of this game. Randle’s usage rate has also been way up this season averaging a usage rate of 28% on the year. In his last four games his usage rate has been above 25%. Heavy minutes, a large usage rate, and a slight price decrease against a Denver team struggling defensively will allow Randle his second triple double on the season.

JaMychal Green – ($4,300)

Michael Porter Jr. has received an additional quarantine meaning more fantasy goodness for Green. Since making his season debut Green is second on the Nuggets in usage at 26%. He has yet to see a game with a usage rate below 22% while seeing nearly 20 minutes in every game he has played. Green has scored over 20 fantasy points in four straight games and the only game he didn’t score over 20 was in his season debut. The price is fair and still leaves upside for Green that we have seen, but he also has been a safe play for this price.

Anthony Davis – ($9,700)

Of course Davis has to play here but I love this spot if he does. I do think he sat out that last game due to it being the second leg of a back to back. A matchup against the Rockets who have allowed the second most fantasy points to center up to this point. Averaging a 28% usage rate against this Houston team should be plenty to pay off Davis’ price tag below 10K. Houston has allowed the most rebounds to centers out of all NBA teams this season, as they also have the worst defensive rebound rate. Davis should be able to get a double-double grabbing that bonus on DraftKings. A fantastic spot awaits Davis as long as he is given the green light.

Tacko Fall – ($3,300)

With Daniel Theis being the only healthy center Fall was called upon for the most minutes of his career at 19 minutes. In those minutes he was efficient from a fantasy stand point scoring 20 fantasy points at minimum price on DraftKings. Its possible that more of these players are ruled out and this game could get out of hand if both Brown and Tatum sit for the Celtics. Fall would be a primary beneficiary of garbage time. If he is going to see around 20 minutes of regular rotation time regardless of the score he will hit value. Fall has also recorded five blocks in 25 minutes of playing time this season. This is a risky play as Fall doesn’t have gaurenteed minutes, but as we saw last game he can hit value when given the minutes.

Monkey Knife Fight

Minnesota vs San Antonio

Demar Derozan – 20.5 points – More – facing the Wolves this shouldn’t be an issue. In this same matchup he just torched the wolves for 38 points. He has a large usage rate and should be able to eclipse 20 points.

D’Angelo Russell – 22.5 points – More – San Antonio has given up the second most real points to point guards this season. Russell also saw a near 30% usage rate with Towns returning last night.

Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/10

Thank you for taking the time to read my article NBA GPP Picks 1/10. This six game slate has already has news to watch with Tatum being doubtful and several other Celtics players being questionable. We also have no clue what is going on with Kyrie, and Anthony Davis comes into this slate questionable as well. We do have some rest candidates on this slate so keeping up with news up until and possibly after lock will be important. The best way to keep up with news and the proper way to adjust is in the Discord Chat rooms. In there you will find myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff as we help you find the correct combinations to cash. Enjoy your Sunday full of sports and good luck on your DFS lineups!

4 years ago 0 comments

NBA Premium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/10

Christopher Day 4 years ago

written by Christopher Day

We have a shorter NBA slate on tap for today but there is plenty to be money to be won, in addition to our NFL entries on this football Sunday!

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,100 DK)

Everyone will keep sleeping on my preseason favorite for NBA MVP, and I will keep taking advantage of his low ownership in great spots. Should Kyrie Irving sit out Brooklyn’s game versus OKC, it’s possible Curry’s ownership skyrockets, but that won’t take me off the best shooter of all time whatsoever. Averaging 30.6 PPG and leading the Warriors with a 33.5% usage rate, Curry is now shaking off the rust and improving his shooting efficiency, where he is now 45.8% from the field and just under 40% from deep.

Fred VanVleet ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)

With the Raptors looking to find a solution at the center position, expect the backcourt tandem of Lowry and VanVleet to virtually never leave the court in tonight’s game. Averaging 22.3/5/5.9 across 35.3 MPG, VanVleet has proven that his hefty contract extension was well deserved this offseason and he’ll be counted on to not only produce offensively, but also to guard Curry at times.

Dejounte Murray ($6,600 FD / $6,800 DK)

I never liked targeting Dejounte Murray on the second half of back-to-backs because Pop used to roll out Derrick White and Patty Mills for more minutes than expected. However, with White slated to miss multiple weeks and Aldridge sitting out every other game, Murray will be counted on to shoulder the load along with DeRozan in tonight’s game. A perfect mid-range target for this NBA slate, Murray has been stellar thus far, averaging 16.8/7.6/5.1 across 32.3 MPG.

Bonus Play (if playing): Kyrie Irving ($9,500 FD / $9,600 DK)

Also Consider:

Goran Dragic ($5,700 FD / $5,800 DK)
Elfrid Payton ($5,500 FD / $6,500 DK)
Dennis Schroder ($5,100 FD / $6,300 DK)

Shooting Guards

James Harden ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)

I’ll say it time in, time out, every NBA slate that the Houston Rockets are on, you need at least some form of exposure to Harden if running multiple lines. He has the potential to break off for 80 at any time, and tonight’s matchup versus the Lakers presents this opportunity. Yes, the Lakers defense is stout, but not on the perimeter: the likes of Dennis Schroder will not be able to guard Harden, who should see 36+ minutes in a game that Vegas has slated as a tight one. Sporting a lower usage rate this season at 30.6% with the addition of John Wall to the backcourt, Harden is still averaging 27/4.7/11.3 and lowered his turnover tendency on offense.

Caris LeVert ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)

This play hinges on Kyrie Irving sitting out, but Caris LeVert’s near 36% usage rate with the Nets’ point guard off the court is worth noting, even with Kevin Durant slated to return to the lineup. In a game that the Nets will look to push the pace versus a terrible OKC team, I’m good with running both LeVert and KD in the same lineup with SGA as your run back option with the hope that SGA keeps this one close on his own.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($7,600 FD / $8,000 DK)

Sporting a 27.7% usage rate on the season, SGA will possibly make his way into my main lineup tonight if Kyrie Irving sits this one out. Much needed as essentially the only offensive threat on the basement dwelling OKC Thunder, SGA has found his groove of late to the tune of 23/7.5/8 in his last two games, playing 35.5 MPG in the same stretch. Shaking off a rusty start, he’ll come in underowned in a game that I want to target on this NBA slate.

Also Consider:

Marcus Smart ($6,300 FD / $7,200 DK)
Tyler Herro ($5,200 FD / $6,400 DK)

Small Forwards

LeBron James ($10,400 FD / $10,200 DK)

Sporting a 32.4% usage rate this season, the short offseason and another NBA title has not affected The King one bit. Averaging a remarkable 24.6/8.4/7.8 across 32.8 MPG, LeBron is doing LeBron things this season and finds himself in a great matchup versus a Houston backcourt who have two of the worst defenders in John Wall and James Harden.

Kevin Durant ($9,900 FD / $9,200 DK)

Getting KD this cheap after nearly 10 games is simply a joke. The man can score in any way he wishes and can possibly be without Kyrie Irving tonight versus an OKC defensive unit that will not be able to guard him. Already shooting 51.4% from the field and 45.5% from deep, KD is a core play for me in all facets barring any restrictions coming off COVID tracing.

Jaylen Brown ($8,600 FD / $9,100 DK)

Keep an eye out for news surrounding these Boston Celtics, who will already be without Jayson Tatum tonight; plenty of their players are at risk of being ruled out for COVID tracing, including JB, but if he’s eventually ruled in, you need to lock him in your NBa lineups tonight. Averaging a career high 26.2 PPG, JB’s usage rate will be through the roof without Tatum off the floor and his already absurd 19.1 FGA will only increase.

Also Consider:

RJ Barrett ($6,700 FD / $6,900 DK)

Power Forwards

Pay Up: Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)

Core Pieces:

Julius Randle ($9,400 FD / $9,500 DK)

Chris Boucher ($7,200 FD / $5,900 DK)

Also Consider:

Daniel Theis ($5,700 FD / $5,100 DK)
Kelly Olynyk ($5,000 FD / $5,400 DK)

Centers

Main Option: Nikola Jokic ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)

Massive drop after The Joker at the center position. I’ll be using the projection model as always to identify other targets at the position since we cannot afford to play Jokic in every lineup.

Others to Consider:

Jarrett Allen ($7,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
Montrezl Harrell ($5,700 FD / $6,400 DK)
Al Horford ($5,200 FD / $5,500 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

4 years ago 0 comments

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NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/14

What We Look For In Cash Formats

Point Guard

Shooting Guard

Small Forward

Power Forward

Center

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4x, 5x, 6x…,ect salary:

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Correlation:

Fade:

ROI

Stars and Scrubs:

Balanced:

Tilt:

Train:

Triple-Up:

Cash Line:

Viable:

Stack/Stacking

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/13

What We Look For In Cash Formats

Point Guard

Shooting Guard

Small Forward

Power Forward

Center

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/12

What We Look For In Cash Formats

Point Guard

Shooting Guard

Small Forward

Power Forward

Center

DK Core

FD Core

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/11

What We Look For In Cash Formats

Point Guard

Shooting Guard

Small Forward

Power Forward

Center

DK Core

FD Core

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