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NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four

Thank goodness last night’s slate is behind us. We had stars sitting, games getting postponed after lock…anything you could imagine. Surely, there will be some chaos tonight but it can’t be as bad as last night. There’s a three game slate on tap and we already know there’s two big name players out in Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Let’s see what else we’re dealing with in the NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four to keep in the green tonight!

Injury Report

Clippers – Paul George (O), Kawhi Leonard (O), Patrick Beverly (O)

Hawks – Clint Capela (Q), Trae Young (Q), Danilo Gallinari (Q), Cam Reddish (Q)

Wizards – Could still be down to basically nine players

Rockets – Christian Wood (D)

DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000 DK/$7,200 FD) – The DK price is laughable here as we’ve seen just how much Cousins can do when Wood is out. His true shooting rate is just 44.4% without Wood over the course of 199 minutes. The usage is 26.9% and the FPPM is 1.44. The ceiling when the shot is working is near 60 DK, as evidenced by the last game. Oh, this would be a good time to mention that he’s logged 30 and 33 minutes the past two games and gets Washington. They play at the fastest pace in basketball and don’t have a single big to hang with Boogie. This is beyond a smash spot and I’m locking him in and not looking back, even with Victor Oladipo back.

Bradley Beal ($9,900 DK/$10,300 FD) – I’m going right back to the well here on Beal. Not only did he manage 45 DK as a floor game, he only shot 30% from three and took just three free throws. Beal sits fourth in the league in free throw attempts at 8.9 per game. Houston is in the top 10 in pace, making this a dynamite spot overall since both teams are in the bottom 12 in points surrendered. Now that he has a game back under his legs, I fully expect Beal to get right back to flirting with 60 DK.

Jerome Robinson ($4,000 DK/$3,600 FD) – Robinson is in play if Raul Neto plays and if Neto can’t go, Robinson likely has an even higher ceiling. He played some minutes at the three last game (shouts to the man Ghost for that information) so the minutes should be safe. I would suspect Russell Westbrook still is on some type of limitation after just 25 minutes. Robinson put up 15 shots across 35 minutes. That’s plenty and the Wizards are going to continue to be shorthanded tonight again. With a minimal price raise on DK, we could be looking at another 7x game. I also am totally on board for Alex Len on DK with his salary barely moving and getting 20 minutes.

Update – Westbrook is limited tonight again, so Robinson is full go inn my eyes.

Lou Williams ($5,800 DK/$6,000 FD) – We have very little to go on with PG and Kawhi both off the floor. The highest are Reggie Jackson and Luke Kennard, both around 70-ish minutes. Since we got news the Clippers would be missing their stars, the role players are priced VERY aggressively. Sweet Lou has taken a step back this season, but we know the scoring upside he has any given game. If he doesn’t start, this would be adjusted. As of now, he does have a 26.4% usage in 33 minutes without the two studs around and someone has to be the primary scorer. He’s $1,000 cheaper than Reggie Jackson, which doesn’t make a ton of sense to me.

We’re moving to Marcus Morris since Lou is still not starting. I’m not comfortable enough with him to make him a core piece.

Thank you for reading NBA Tuesday 1/26 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/25

Christopher Day
written by Christopher Day

With the NFL season winding down, it’s time for bigger and better NBA contests, so we’re bringing the heat for Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems! Despite the 10-game slate, there are clear paths for us to look at before the news hits, so let’s get to it.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,200 DK)

One of the hardest positions to identify which stud to play is point guard. However, tonight’s decision came fairly easily when the pricing discrepancy on the two-time NBA MVP was made clear, especially on DK. With the Timberwolves ranking 6th in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating, Curry should have his way with former teammate D’Angelo Russell all night long, making his 1.39 FPPM and 31.7% usage rate a perfect spot for our “marteau d’soir”.

Kyrie Irving ($9,4,00 FD / $9,000 DK)

With a certain Miami big man being a priority for us yet again tonight, I’m going right back to the well and running a 1-2 punch with Kyrie Irving. Despite the slow start last game versus Miami, Kyrie still finished with 28/6/7 on 58.8% shooting, 60% from deep, and nearly 50 FP across both sites, showing just how great of an impact he can make in such little time.

Others to Consider:

  • Dejounte Murray ($7,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
  • Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $10,300 DK)

Shooting Guards

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $8,100 DK)

Despite not making the cut for me on DK tonight because of the man listed right below him, SGA is in a prime spot for one of our two SG on FD. Although he is battling consistency throughout the NBA season, it is not because of a lack of usage: SGA paces the Thunder with a 26.1% clip, whereby no other starter reaches 20% or more. Despite the lack of surrounding talent in what can only be classed as a rebuilding year, SGA’s matchup versus Portland, who ranks 26th in the league versus primary ball handlers, is one that is simply too good to pass up.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)

An interesting revenge narrative for tonight’s NBA slate, DLo fits the bill to run a 1-2 game stack with Steph Curry as they do battle for our “marteau d’soir”. Sporting a usage rate just north of 30% with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Russell will have ample opportunity in both the pick ‘n roll and off the ball, as the Warriors rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA to FP allowed per game to combo guards.

Others to Consider:

  • Fred VanVleet ($7,900 FD / $7,900 DK)
  • Kendrick Nunn ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,400 FD / $10,400 DK)

If you’re not getting exposure to the Brooklyn Nets offense in the form of Kyrie Irving, take a long look at KD. Coming in as the second-highest scorer in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, KD has made a strong return from an achilles injury, averaging 31.2 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 5.8 RPG. With no Jimmy Butler yet again for the Heat, there’s nobody to guard KD on the wing, nor on the perimeter.

Gordon Hayward ($8,100 FD / $7,300 DK)

I never thought I’d be writing Hayward up because he is too safe of an option on a nightly basis, but with his price on DK being $1,000 too cheap and the lack of options at the position on FD, he makes the list. They key for Hayward has been his minutes in the past three games, where he has three straight 38-minute outings. In his past 7 games where he has played 35 or more minutes, Hayward has put up an average of 44.9 DK points, whereby he’s also averaging 30.71 PPG on a ridiculous 56.82% shooting.

OG Anunoby ($6,200 FD / $6,900 DK)

A far better play on FD due to salary and scoring differential, OG has been featured here for quite some time yet continues to carry ridiculously low ownership on a nightly basis. OG carries a surprisingly safe floor on FD due to his defensive upside, where he paces the NBA with 2.2 steals per game, but should Siakam miss this game, he gets an even greater bump due to a larger role on offense, as seen in his last three games, where he’s averaging 23 PPG and 6.33 RPG.

Others to Consider:

  • LeBron James ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)
  • Jaylen Brown ($9,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
  • Brandon Ingram ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,100 FD / $9,200 DK)

What if I told you that you cannot only have Steph Curry for $9,200 on DK, but also Anthony Davis? Well, that’s the reality on tonight’s NBA slate, and it’s scary that he is still not pulling the ownership he deserves. While Cleveland’s defense has been stout in the early stages of the season, they are vulnerable in the paint with a combination of Jarrett Allen’s lackluster defense and Andre Drummond foul issues against fellow big men. I said it before that AD would break a slate, and last game versus Chicago, where he dropped 37/6/3 on 66.67% shooting in his hometown may have been what he needed to get going.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)

Despite the hefty price tag putting him in the same price bracket as Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, and others, Sabonis still warrants consideration tonight. For the very same reason that I just laid out for you, nobody will play him, and if he outscores other studs on the slate, you’ll be jumping thousands of spots at once; Leading the NBA with 38.4 MPG, Sabonis ranks fourth in RPG with 12.9 to go along with his 20.9 PPG and 5.8 APG. In 40 minutes yesterday versus the Raptors, who struggle mightily in the paint, Sabonis still managed to drop 10/19/5 despite only making 1 shot from the field – that’s right, one. Whereas Myles Turner shot 8 for 12 from the field yesterday, Sabonis is the guy to target here and should have a 20/15/5 game with ease.

Bam Adebayo ($9,600 FD / $8,500 DK)

Over 28% usage and 1.44 FPPM with Butler off the floor this season and DK has not changed Adebayo’s price after coming off a 62 DK point performance despite only grabbing 5 rebounds. The Nets have been decimated in the paint since moving Jarrett Allen out to Cleveland, and there’s absolutely no reason to go right back to well tonight.

Others to Consider:

  • Zion Williamson ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
  • Chris Boucher ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)

Centers

Primary options at the time of writing:

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
  • Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
  • Myles Turner ($7,500 FD / $7,400 DK)

Note: I am playing Bam at Center on DK, but these are my preferred options for FD or utility options on DK.

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/25

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/25

Here we go again with a huge slate of 10 games, and NBA is going to take center stage now that NFL is just about over. The best thing to do on slates like this is to try and block out the noise. Everyone has the same salary restrictions and player slots. There will undoubtedly be players that we want but don’t have in the lineup. Just stay with the decision you make and let’s talk about which we’re making in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/25!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

  1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
  2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
  3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
  4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
  5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Philadelphia – Joel Embiid (Q)

Detroit – Derrick Rose (O)

Toronto – Kyle Lowry (Q), Pascal Siakam (Q)

Orlando – Aaron Gordon (Q)

Miami – Jimmy Butler (O), Tyler Herro (O)

Boston – Kemba Walker (O)

Chicago – Wendell Carter (D)

Minnesota – D’Angelo Russell (Q)

Oklahoma City – Al Horford (Q)

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,200 DK/$9,600) – I will never tell you that Damian Lillard and Luka Doncic aren’t in play at the high end. However, this is the perfect spot for Steph. The Wolves are terrible, and shouldn’t blow out the Warriors. Minnesota also has the mix we look for at a high pace and poor defense, top 10 and bottom 10 respectively. They also rank in the bottom 10 in three point field goal percentage given up. Steph’s 31.7% usage and 1.39 FPPM should shine in this spot, and with these teams third and sixth in pace Steph won’t be the last one we see. It’s a great late hammer and the price on both sites is quite low.

Dejounte Murray ($6,500 DK/$7,600 FD) – He’s priced wildly differently on each site, but Murray is a solid mid-range target on DK. I will not be surprised to see the Spurs sit someone on a back to back. Even if they do not, Murray only played 30 minutes and sports a healthy 23% usage rate and a 1.12 FPPM. Lonzo Ball has consistently gotten worse on defense every year and Murray can fill the stat sheet. He technically had a triple-double last night, even though it was just barely. Still, he’s the kind of guard we like that’s not totally reliant on points.

Goran Dragic ($6,200 DK/$5,800 FD) – Am I likely to use him? Probably not since Kendrick Nunn is right in the same price range but Dragic does bring some safety to the lineup. The veteran and Bam Adebayo both share the usage rate lead at 28% and only Bam has a higher FPPM than 1.09 for Dragic. He’s really more of a FD play but we all know how bad the Nets are at defending anything or anyone right now.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – I have to believe we’ll find some value (maybe from Boston specifically) but for now, Bledsoe is as close to low as I’d really like to go. He’s back to playing 32-34 minutes a night and that is very encouraging. Don’t expect the 40 FD again but the Spurs travel and play at the 10th fastest pace. That’s going to suit the Pelicans, who have run slow this season. Bledsoe sits at a 20% stage rate and a 0.87 FPPM. He and Lonzo Ball are mirror images of each other, but never Lonzo in cash.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Dame, Malcolm Brogdon, Cole Anthony

Shooting Guard

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100 DK/$8,100 FD) – It’s astounding to me that James Harden is under $10,000 and I don’t have a big need to play him. Also, if the Raptors are short, Fred VanVleet is a smash play and the chalk at the high-end of the position. If it’s business as normal, consider SGA tonight. We always like targeting the Blazers (unless you’re the Knicks I guess) and that maintains tonight. They’ll be on back to backs, not helping the defense at all and the Thunder match the pace with 12 and 13 for each squad. The 1.12 FPPM isn’t exactly special, but the 27.7% is far and away tops on the team. SGA is fourth in average seconds per touch in the league and it’s only a mater of time before that translates to more fantasy points consistently.

Kendrick Nunn ($6,100 DK/$6,500 FD) – Rinse and repeat for Nunn. The Heat are still in the same spot and Nunn played another 32 minutes last game. He actually scored fewer than 20 real points for the first time in the last three games and playing 35 minutes or around that is going to work out well more often than not. Nunn does break our rule as someone who is very reliant on his real points but Miami needs a scorer with the absence of Butler and Herro. I’m still on board for the GPP fade but the cash games he is still a very strong option.

Note – This position really depends on Raptors. Not only does it have FVV, but Norman Powell is a SG as well. We could play both if Lowry and Siakam are out, but don’t know that yet. Marcus Smart is in the running as well, but let’s make sure Jayson Tatum is in (as he’s supposed to be). As always, I can get on board with Seth Curry on FD as a cheapie and he hit 24 FD last game without even hitting a three pointer. Updates will be coming tomorrow.

Small Forward

Jerami Grant ($7,800 DK/$8,400 FD) – On DK, I’ll likely gravitate here but FD will be the next player. Grant is really slightly underpriced for DK and he’s coming off putting up 32 DK with only 11 real points. Blake Griffin is in line to be back but Rose is still out and Grant took 19 shots last game. Everything flows through him when Rose is off the floor, with a 26.8% usage and a 1.11 FPPM. The matchup on the glass would get even better if Embiid winds up out, and Grant is ninth in the NBA in minutes.

Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,700 FD) – The Pelicans have been disappointing and Ingram hasn’t been perfect…but under $8,000 in this spot? Sign me up. I think the Spurs will have trouble defending Ingram and he gets 35 minutes per contest. The pace suits BI and he leads the starting unit in assist rate. Ingram also takes about 20% of his shots from the 20-24 foot range and the Spurs are in the bottom eight in field goal percentage allowed. The price is just far too low on FD.

Michael Porter Jr. ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD) – Denver kind of needs to get moving here as far as the standings go, and are coming off two big wins against the Suns. They are now fifth in the West but were 10th three games ago. For all of MPJ’s issues (defensively for sure), he needs to be in the starting lineup and given heavy minutes. Losing Grant has turned out to be a bigger deal than many thought. MPJ played 35 minutes last game and while it was double OT, he proved he can do it. Nobody on this team has more than MPJ’s 1.17 FPPM on the year past Nikola Jokic and his usage is 20.2%. Neither teams play at a high pace, but neither did the Suns.

Doug McDermott ($5,500 DK/$4,500 FD) – This is mostly a FD only pick, but Dougie McBuckets is logging some serious minutes right now. The past four games he’s been pegged between 32-36 minutes and has double-digit points in every single game. The Raptors allow the fifth-highest frequency of three pointers, which can lead to McDermott getting very hot from deep very quickly. We don’t get players that get this amount of minutes and can actually score very often.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward, Evan Fournier (if Gordon is out)

Power Forward

Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$9,600 FD) – Let me stress this – play. Bam. Adebayo. Tonight. 

Got it? Alright, now let’s talk about why. I already mentioned ad nauseam how bad the Nets have been. Where they’ve struggled to a frightening degree is in the paint. In the past two games, they have given up 134 points in the paint. ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY FOUR. I get they had two overtimes mixed in but my sweet Christmas man. Someone get a hand up in the lane! Bam already is 12th in the league in points in the paint and carries a 27% usage and a 1.41 FPPM with Jimmy Buckets off the floor. I’ll say it again – play Bam Adebayo tonight.

Does that sound familiar? It should, because that’s what I wrote for Saturday. All Bam did was go out and drop 41 real points and 62 DK. They decided to not raise his price even $100. If DK had jacked him up to $9,800, I’d talk about fading. I’m not doing it at the current price on that site. On FD, it’s a much bigger discussion since he, Jayson Tatum and Damontas Sabonis are all the same price. I still lean Bam as the highest ceiling. Sabonis is more of a floor play on a back to back and Tatum hasn’t played in a hot minute (despite the goat matchup).

Anthony Davis ($9,200 DK/$10,100 FD) – I’ll have a tough time getting there on FD, but the DK price is still silly for AD. I know he’s been more floor than ceiling, but crushed the Chicago front court for 55 DK in just 28 minutes. As much as I love Sabonis, AD is the better play on DK given the salaries because Andre Drummond isn’t doing squat to stop AD. Neither is Jarrett Allen, nor anyone else for Cleveland. Davis should be able to score at will and they are only 19th in rebounding on the season.

Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,000 DK/$5,400 FD) – If you got some sticker shock from the Naz Reid price, consider Vanderbilt. I wish he had a few more minutes under his belt the past couple games but things seem to be clicking. He recorded a double-double last game out and this is a good spot to do it again. Golden State is 22nd in rebounding so he’s got chances on the glass and he’s taken a combined 23 shots the past two games. With KAT and Juancho still out, Vanderbilt should push for 25 minutes tonight in an excellent spot.

Daniel Theis ($4,800 DK/$4,700 FD) – I don’t think he posts another massive game like last night, but it’s another soft spot for the Boston big man. We target Chicago constantly with their high pace (second) and poor defense (third-worst). Both teams are mid-pack in rebounding numbers on the season and we know Theis does have some ceiling. The Bulls are 21st in points in the paint allowed and Theis comes awfully cheap.

Honorable Mention – Kristaps Porzingis, Zion, Draymond Green (FD), Isaiah Roby (if Horford is out)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($10,800 DK/$11,200 FD) – Finally under $11,000 on DK, Joker gets another sweetheart spot tonight. Dallas doesn’t have the bodies to keep up with him unless Porzingis plays center all night. I suppose that’s possible but it still wouldn’t deter me. I thought MPJ might knock the ceiling for Jokic but he averages right about 1.70 FPPM and the same 30% usage rate with him on the floor through 131 minutes together. Frankly, having a player that talented helps with assists if nothing else. This is a marquee game and a big showdown in the West, and Joker is lower than he’s been.

James Wiseman ($5,400 DK/$4,900 FD) – He makes his first (I think) appearance in the cash article, but this is the spot. The young man has been difficult to peg, but not tonight. He’s getting around 24 minutes and Minnesota is 18th and 21st in paint points and boards allowed. Wiseman averages 4.4 paint touches and over four points per game in the paint, making this a solid spot for the rookie. He’s rocking a 1.10 FPPM so far with a 24.4% usage rate, second-best behind Steph. I’m either all the way up or punting center on FD, and looking strongly at Bam/Wiseman on DK.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24

It would be nice if we got a calmer slate than last night. The amount of players that were missing, questionable, and late news combined for a hectic night. We do know that one of the 10 teams is going to be very short-handed and will be extremely chalky in the Washington Wizards. Past that, we have some other interesting paths to look at to try and find the green in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/24!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

  1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
  2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
  3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
  4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
  5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Boston – Jayson Tatum (O), Payton Pritchard (O)

Washington – If Russell Westbrook and Raul Neto are out, they have 10 players and two were just signed. For that reason, I’m not going to list off each individual Wizard value. All of them are in play for cash and if Washington is down to eight, we’ll need three or four in cash.

San Antonio – Dejounte Murray

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,400 DK/$10,000 FD) – He’s questionable but has been through most of the season. The Hawks take on the Bucks, who play at the seventh-fastest pace in the league. They allow a three point attempt about 40% of the time and that should possibly help Young find the stroke from deep. What’s interesting is you would think with Giannis and Brook Lopez, they wouldn’t be susceptible to pick and roll ball handlers. Yet, they are the eighth-worst team in points given up to the ball handler. Young has the second-highest frequency in that play type behind only Cole Anthony of the Magic. I’m likelier to play him on DK than FD.

Damian Lillard ($10,000 DK/$9,700 FD) – If it’s Young on DK, it’s mostly going to be Dame Time on FD just because of the pricing. Yes, I get the Knicks are playing well defensively but this is still Dame without CJ McCollum. In the 146 minutes with CJ and Jusuf Nurkic on the floor, Dame has a 31.2% usage rate and a 1.35 FPPM. New York is 30th in pace, not ideal but counterbalance that aspect with three pointers. They allow the fourth-highest frequency in the NBA, and Lillard drives over 15 times per game. The Knicks are 0.4% away from being eighth in attempts allowed within five feet.

Kemba Walker ($6,300 DK/$6,800 FD) – I’m not typically a Kemba guy but Boston is still without Tatum and obviously Gordon Hayward. Since Kemba has come back, he has a 36% usage rate and a 1.32 FPPM, while his true shooting is 49.5%. It’s taking a little time to get his shooting legs back under him, but he’s now been cleared to play about 28 minutes. Collin Sexton is still not a great defender and Kemba is a safe (not a ceiling) pick here.

Honorable Mention – The value plays will sort themselves out. We could turn to Washington, we could possibly play Patty Mills if Murray is out. There’s going to be options and there’s a good chance I spend on Young or Dame.

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($10,100 DK/$10,300 FD) – Beal is priced through the roof but with the Wizards being so short, I can’t see wanting to fade him. I suppose you could argue he won’t be in game shape but that’s not holding enough water for me. Even if it’s just Westbrook out from the questionable group, Beal averages 1.64 FPPM and a 37.5% usage rate. He’s basically Luka Doncic. With the value at hand, he’ll be one of my primary targets and safest bets on the board.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD) – If Murray is out, DDR is hard to pass up as well. Lest we forget, Washington plays at the fastest pace in basketball and is in the bottom two in defensive rating. DDR has a 28.4% usage rate and a 1.31 FPPM, both of which lead the team. He’ll be the main playmaker against one of the best matchups on the board. There’s not much more to breakdown than that.

Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,500 FD) – Reddish is quite the bargain on FD and sets up as a good spot to take advantage of. After missing games with a knee issue, he still played 24 minutes and we should expect that to continue. Danilo Gallinari is working his way back, and probably won’t be over 18-20 minutes. If anything, Kevin Huerter would be the one to lose minutes here. Reddish is normally about 28 minutes per game and takes five triples with a 0.88 FPPM. That works at $4,500 on FD especially.

Honorable Mention – Marcus Smart, Collin Sexton

Small Forward

Khris Middleton ($7,800 DK/$7,900 FD) – I’ve been hesitant to target Milwaukee players but a matchup against Atlanta is too good to overlook. Both teams are top 10 in pace and even if the Hawks can’t keep up for the full game, Middleton would be one of the reasons it gets ugly. He’s second on the team with a 1.23 FPPM and has about a 25% usage rate on the season. Both teams are also in the bottom 10 in three pointers per game allowed, and this would be right in Middleton’s wheelhouse for a big game.

R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – The second-year player gets a mouth watering matchup against the Blazers. Not only does Portland play at the 13th fastest pace, they sport the third-worst defensive rating in hoops. Barrett never comes off the floor with the sixth-most minutes in the league and a 23.9% usage rate. The shot is always a little scary to trust and the price is up high, but the Blazers matchup is too good to not be interested in.

Carmelo Anthony ($4,800 DK/$4,100 FD) – Melo is more of a place holder for now. I’ll admit, we likely have way chalkier value with Washington. We still need to know exactly who’s available before deciding to play. Regardless, I’d still be totally fine playing Melo. He’s playing 26-28 minutes with the Blazers injury situation and has scored in the double digits for three games straight. If narratives are your thing, I don’t think you’re going to find many better than Melo vs. The Knicks, either.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward

Power Forward

Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$9,100 FD) – The veteran big man is coming off another said game for the price, and this spot stands out as well. He’s right with Barrett as far as minutes go and averages 22/11 every night. What’s been impressive is the six dimes per night as well. The Blazers have no shot at containing him and if the pace goes high, Randle has even more chances to hit the glass. Portland is 20th in rebounding per night and I will strongly consider playing two of the three “big” Knicks tonight.

Aaron Gordon ($7,400 DK/$7,300 FD) – I feel like he’s going to bite me at this price at some point, but Gordon is getting a boatload of minutes now that he’s healthy and is producing through all aspects. Charlotte is 12th in rebounding so the Magic need him to hit the glass, which he’s had at least nine rebounds the past three games. AG has really stepped up as a bit more of a ball distributor in the absence of Markelle Fultz. His assist rate is 27.6% without Fultz, highest on the team. The FPPM is also 1.14 and nobody but Nikola Vucevic has that beat.

Honorable Mention – We’ll get a value piece to fill in and look for an update with a clearer picture. Daniel Theis is a borderline option right now as the Celtics could use his size on the floor for about 28 minutes tonight. They’re going to have Andre Drummond of Jarrett Allen almost every minute. As an aside, someone trade for Drum so we can get Allen unleashed.

Center

Andre Drummond ($9,300 DK/$8,600 FD) – I’m likely to skip out on DK, but FD he’s under $9,000. Sure, the minutes won’t be redlined like they were. There’s still meat on the bone for this salary. Drummond is fourth in rebounding chances per game and Boston is in the bottom 12 in rebounding per game. They are also 24th in paint points allowed, so Drummond could easily post a quick 14/14 style of line and that could work on FD in cash. I just can’t spend up to $10,000 on Clint Capela.

Mitchell Robinson ($5,800 DK/$5,900 FD) – It can be frustrating to play Robinson on a nightly basis. He doesn’t even look like that great by FPPM at 0.88 so we need to be judicious in where we play him. This spot checks the boxes. As I mentioned, Portland is 20th in rebounding. With Nurkic out, they will continue to drop in points allowed in the paint (they are 10th) but Enes Kanter could struggle a bit with Robinson’s athleticism. Given the pace of the game, we need about 30 fantasy points here and have a very good shot at it. He has some extra chances at blocks with Lillard driving, and just hope fouls don’t get him.

Alex Len ($3,100 DK/$3,500 FD) – Washington is down Thomas Bryant, Mo Wagner and Rui Hachimura. I assume Robin Lopez gets a bunch of minutes, but even if he gets the 25 he did in the last game for the Wizards, someone needs to play the other minutes. Enter Len, who has shown ability to be a fantasy asset if given the chance. My first look is RoLo is kind of pricey, and we might just rather take a shot at Len. Let’s check in with the model tomorrow.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBA

NBA GPP Picks 1/23

Richard Masana
written by Richard Masana

NBA GPP Picks 1/23 

We have a seven game NBA main slate for this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It is a very interesting slate as ten of fourteen teams playing today are on the back end of a back-to-back. There is also a different than normal lock time as we lock at 7PM CST. Brooklyn could be a team to watch as Kevin Durant sat last night it would not surprise me if Kyrie sat tonight. That game Miami vs Brooklyn is currently projected as the highest scoring contest at 232.5 points. A new player was added to the injury report as Devin Booker suffered a Hamstring injury late in last night’s game and is unlikely to play tonight. In my article I will be using DraftKings pricing where Nikola Jokic is our highest priced player at $10,800. My article will consist of two players at each position that I believe has potential major upside based upon the players price and my research. Let’s breakdown these seven games for tonight’s NBA DFS slate!

Point Guard 

Jamal Murray – ($6,700) 

This is the lowest price that Murray has been this season as he was priced here one other time. That other scenario was against Phoenix who he faces again tonight. Although it seems to be a rather tough matchup in two games against Phoenix Murray is averaging 47 DraftKings points. In those two games he has an average usage of nearly 28% which is 4% above his season average. Jamal has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four games.  

Donovan Mitchell – ($7,800) 

Seven straight games Mitchell has scored at least 36 fantasy points in large part due to his massive usage. Mithcell is averaging a usage of 32% this season and has a usage of at least 31% in his last four games. Facing the Warriors who rank as the third fastest team in the NBA should only benefit Mitchell. In the four games he has faced teams top ten in pace he has gone for at least 40 fantasy points in three of those. One of those games against Milwaukee he eclipsed 50 fantasy points. With this big pace up spot another night of at least 40 fantasy points is expected. 

Shooting Guard 

Kendrick Nunn – ($5,600) 

With Herro already ruled out and as long as Jimmy Butler is out again, I will play Nunn. He has played at least 34 minutes in the last three games without those two. In those games he is averaging a usage rate of 25%, and averaging just north of 40 fantasy points. A fantastic matchup against Brooklyn who ranks as the fifth fastest team and eighth worst defensively. Three straight games of at least 34.75 fantasy points and that streak will continue if Butler remains out. 

Wayne Ellington – ($3,800) 

Three straight games now we have seen Ellington on the court for at least 28 minutes. He has made that court time count shooting ten threes per game in those three games. In those three games Ellington’s lowest fantasy output was 24.5 which is amazing value for his current price. A great matchup as Philadelphia is the fourth fastest team this season and has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to shooting guards. Philly has allowed the second most three pointers made to shooting guards this season which is excellent for a three-point specialist like Ellington. 

Small Forward  

Lebron James – ($9,400) 

At this price I feel Lebron’s floor is extremely safe as he has scored at least 45 fantasy points in 12 of his last 15 games. A pace up spot with Chicago who is the second fastest team should only make it safer. Chicago ranks fourth worst in defensive rating and have given up the third most fantasy points to point guards this season. The Bulls have given up the second highest field goal percentage to opposing point guards. I think this is a fantastic spot for Lebron and like my chances for him to record a triple double here.  

Abdel Nader – ($3,000) 

Missing majority of the season due to a concussion Nader is finally getting into game shape. He was tied for the most minutes off the bench against Denver last night and now Booker is ruled out. Nader could see a minute’s boost as he has passed Jevon Carter in the rotation. In last night’s game Nader had his highest minute total and a solid usage of 19.1%. We need to monitor who starts for Booker we could have some Minimum salary value. There are several starting options for Phoenix so we will have to wait on the starting lineup. Regardless there is some value as Jevon Carter, Abdel Nader, and Cameron Payne all have potential to see a minutes boost here. 

Power Forward 

Zion Williamson – ($7,600) 

If Minnesota runs the same starting lineup as they have been Zion will have a 70-pound size advantage over Jarred Vanderbilt. Vanderbilt starting has shown as in the last five games Minnesota has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to power forwards. The Wolves have struggled to rebound as they are dead last in defensive rebounding along with third lowest total rebound percentage. A 28% usage rate and a Wolves team rated as the fifth worst defense in the NBA should be a recipe for success.  

Cameron Johnson – ($4,400) 

Booker suffering an injury and unlikely to play will benefit Cam Johnson. If we take Saric and Booker off the floor Johnson see’s the highest usage increase on the team at 6.1%. Denver has struggled defensively ranking 25th in defensive rating this season. Johnson busted last night and I hope that takes some ownership off him. He played 32 minutes last night and now we are taking away a player averaging a 30% usage rate. That means good things for Johnson as he’s scored 1.14 fantasy points per minute without Saric and Booker this season. 

Center 

Rudy Gobert – ($7,300) 

Four straight double doubles now for Gobert with three of those against very tough centers in Steven Adams (twice), and Nikola Jokic. He draws a much better matchup against the rookie Wiseman here as Golden State has allowed the eighth most fantasy points to centers and contains the second lowest rebound percentage in the league. A huge pace up spot here as well with Golden State ranking the third fastest team on the year. Gobert is averaging 1.21 fantasy points per minute this season and he should average that in this fantastic matchup against Golden State.  

Demarcus Cousins – ($5,100) 

Boogie saw a season high 33 minutes in last night’s game with Detroit. He scored 36 fantasy points while shooting 2-16 from the field which is unlikely to happen again. His usage rate is near 25% on a nightly basis this season. When we take Wood and Wall off the floor this season his usage doesn’t change much but his fantasy points per minutes sits at 1.25. If Boogie surpasses 30 minutes and we look at the FPPM he should smash value again but hopefully with a better shooting night. 

Monkey Knife Fight 

Pelicans vs Timberwolves

D’Angelo Russell – 23.5 points – More – His usage rate has been at least 30% all season especially with Towns absent. Point guards against the Pelicans are averaging 36 real points in 48 minutes. Russell should be able to hit this mark, he only played 21 minutes last night as the Wolves got thumped. 

Zion Williamson – 23.5 points – More – As I mentioned above If Zion matches up with Jarred Vanderbilt I expect him to bully the much smaller Vanderbilt. Zion is tied for the highest usage on the team at 28%. I love attacking players against Minnesota and Zion should surpass this total with the Wolves minimal rim protection. 

Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/23 

We have some potential value on tonight’s slate with Booker doubtful due to a Hamstring injury. I mentioned earlier we do have some rest candidates my guess would be Kyrie or Embiid but it’s possible everyone plays too. Keeping up with NBA news is easy if you join myself and Win Daily Sports staff in the Discord Chat rooms. NBA slates can change in the blink of an eye and that is the best place to keep up with our strategies. Check out the projection models as well for all player values! Thanks for reading this edition of NBA GPP Picks 1/23. It will be a busy Saturday with NBA and a UFC card featuring Conor McGregor. Best of luck with your lineups or bets and let’s make some money! 

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NBAPremium

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/23

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/23

We turn the page tonight to another seven game slate and we have some back to backs. That could wreak some havoc later in the day but we look fairly healthy right now. There’s only five players that are five digits in salary on DK and we’ll have some interesting stacking spots as well. I expect changes like we always get in NBA DFS but let’s lay the base for NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/23 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

  1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
  2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
  3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
  4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
  5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Miami – Jimmy Butler (Q), Tyler Herro (O)

Brooklyn – Kevin Durant (Q)

Minnesota – Karl Anthony-Towns (O), Juancho Hernangomez (O)

Chicago – Wendell Carter Jr. (Q)

Houston – Christian Wood (D), John Wall (O)

Dallas – Covid group that has been out

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$10,800 FD) – Anytime Luka isn’t the highest-salary player on the slate, we should be interested. He went bonkers last night and is in a prime spot to do so again. Houston is ninth in pace and in the bottom 10 in real points allowed. Even with Kristaps Porzingis on the floor, Luka is still rocking his normal 29.1% usage rate and 1.66 FPPM. We could see another vintage Luka triple-double and he’s under $11,000 on both sites. Wheels up. It’s possible (not likely but possible) the Mavs sit Porzingis on a back to back since the Rockets are without Wood. If that’s the case, Luka is top priority.

Mike Conley ($6,600 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s actually more affordable on DK tonight, which hasn’t been the case often. Golden State is about 1% away from being inside the top 10 in three point frequency given up and the Jazz are shooting the lights out of the ball right now.

Conley is right next to Donovan Mitchel in FPPM at 1.14 and leads the team in assist rate at 30.1%. The Warriors play at the third-fastest pace in the league and this could be the late nigh hammer we dream of.

Goran Dragic ($6,200 DK/$5,700 FD) – We know that Herro is out for another few games, and Dragic is in a smash spot. Brooklyn couldn’t guard a triangle offense with me, Brian and Ghost right now. The seasoned vet may not be a dynamo at this point, but the pace and defense on the other side easily makes up for it. He leads the team in usage rate at 29.3% with a whopping 41.2% asset rate with Butler and Herro off the floor. Provided he gets 26-28 minutes tonight, he should smash this price.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,400 DK/$5,100 FD) – This would be more of a FD play since Nunn is the same price range and we have position flexibility. The Pelicans actually started to run up the pace a little bit last game, and that just makes way too much sense to not keep doing. Bledsoe’s price is very affordable and he’s at a 19% usage rate. That remains third on the starting unit but Minnesota remains in the top eight in pace and bottom eight in real points allowed.

Honorable Mention – Steph Curry, Kyrie Irving (if KD is out), Chris Paul, Jalen Brunson

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo ($7,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I’m likelier to use him on DK but he owes us after flopping badly last night. We got the usage we wanted with him taking over 15 shots but Dipo just couldn’t hit water falling out of a boat. That’s not going to happen every night and the usage is still off the charts, approaching 40%. I don’t think this is a play we’re going to need but I’d still be happy to use him.

Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 DK/$8,500 FD) – Another member of the Jazz that is more affordable on DK, Mitchell is in a prime spot as well. We can throw out the narrative of Shaq basically insulting him after the game last time out. Things got awkward quick after Shag said Mitchell isn’t at a certain level. One way to try and prove it is to out-duel Steph Curry. During the seven game win streak for the Jazz, Spida is averaging almost 28 points a contest and I expect a big game with his 32.1% usage rate so far this year.

Kendrick Nunn ($5,700 DK/$6,500 FD) – It would surely seem like Nunn is going to be one of the chalkiest plays on the slate. He went for another 22 real points and 40 FD points, bringing his streak of 35 or higher to three. Dragic could see his minutes dialed back just slightly and Nunn has a very respectable 24.2% usage himself without the main players. Oh, and don’t forget that Brooklyn can’t guard anything.

Seth Curry ($5,300 DK/$4,500 FD) – Curry returned to the starting lineup last night and wasn’t anything special but did post 15 real points. He played 27 minutes which is a little under what he normally does, not a major surprise. The Sixers knew they had a back to back and this is a great spot for a sharpshooter like Curry. The Pistons allow the ninth-highest frequency of three point attempts and the fourth-highest FG%. For $4,500, we can do way worse on FD.

Honorable Mention – James Harden (if KD is out), Jordan Clarkson, David Nwaba

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,100 DK/$7,800 FD) – It’s always noticeable when Ingram drops below $8,000 on FD. He had a very odd game last time out in that he scored 16 real points in the first quarter and then….that was about it. He only scored seven the rest of the way. He and Zion still lead the way in usage on the team at 28% each and both have about a 1.14 FPPM. Ingram has expanded a little bit and now has a 22.8% assist rate, tops on the team as well. Hopefully the Pelicans start running a little bit more and the pace Minnesota plays at brings out the best in BI tonight.

Kelly Oubre ($6,100 DK/$5,400 FD) – You know this position is rough outside the top end when Oubre is second in the write up. I will say on FD that folks might just take LeBron James against the Bulls, as they run at the second-fastest pace in the league. That’s totally fine and if you do that, I may take a stars and scrubs approach. Oubre would be up next on FD as he put up 24 FD points last game on just seven real points. The Warriors are trying to hang out West and Oubre is only at a 0.88 FPPM to go with his 21.5% usage. His true shooting is in the tank at 44.1%. It’s 53.6% over his career, so to say there’s room for improvement is a massive understatement.

Eric Gordon ($6,000 DK/$5,200 FD) – Rinse and repeat for Gordon from last night. He’s never going to do much outside score but he’s too cheap for the volume of shots he gets. Just like Oladipo, he took over 15 and produced 20 real points. The DK price is a little out of my range since he would need 36 DK points for just 6x, but the FD price and requirements make it work much better. Remember that this season Gordon is at a 1.09 FPPM on a 29.8% usage rate without Wall and Wood. The usage will go down the longer Dipo is there, but still.

Honorable Mention – LeBron, Jerami Grant, Bojan Bogdanovic

Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($9,300 DK/$9,800 FD) – If you guys remember, Ghost just talked about there was going to be a slate that AD broke and we looked back saying, “why didn’t we lock him in?” and I think this is it. Maybe he’s not under the radar, but if Davis can’t smash this Chicago front court I may not play him for a bit. Davis haas 5.9 paint touches per game and Chicago is 22nd in paint points allowed. Surprisingly, they are fifth in paint rebounds allowed but they still don’t have the bodies to hang with Davis. AD averages 12.9 rebound chances per game and still has a 1.33 FPPM on the year.

Bam Adebayo ($8,500 DK/$8,700 FD) – Let me stress this – play. Bam. Adebayo. Tonight.

Got it? Alright, now let’s talk about why. I already mentioned ad nauseam how bad the Nets have been. Where they’ve struggled to a frightening degree is in the paint. In the past two games, they have given up 134 points in the paint. ONE HUNDRED AND THIRTY FOUR. I get they had two overtimes mixed in but my sweet Christmas man. Someone get a hand up in the lane! Bam already is 12th in the league in points in the paint and carries a 27% usage and a 1.41 FPPM with Jimmy Buckets off the floor. I’ll say it again – play Bam Adebayo tonight.

Draymond Green ($5,500 DK/$5,100 FD) – If Dray can not *checks notes* get ejected for yelling at a teammate tonight…wait, that’s what he got bounced for? Yeesh. Anyways, he was on pace for a nice game last time out before he left early and he’s back to playing about 30 a game. The Warriors are going to need his defensive prowess to help guard the three point line tonight since it’s been bombs away for the Jazz this year. You’re not playing Green to score a bunch of points, but he fills the stat sheet and can flirt with triple-doubles still. He’s a fine value on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Zion, possibly Jeff Green depending on the Nets status

Center

Joel Embiid ($10,000 DK/$10,200 FD) – Embiid has been on a tear these past two games, and I think on DK he’s not going to get a lot of attention. Since Bam is C only, the chalk combo is Boogie and Bam. Spending up to Biid is interesting. He’s scored 42 and 38 real points the past two games, while racking up at least 53 FD points in each game. I joke around that Mason Plumlee is sometimes usable in DFS, but good ol’ PlumDawg is going to get worked tonight. Even with everyone healthy, Biid has a 31.3% usage rate and a 1.57 FPPM.

DeMarcus Cousins ($5,100 DK/$4,900 FD) – I would suspect he’s overwhelming chalk again, though you can argue the minutes could be curtailed after playing 32 last night. Frankly, it doesn’t matter. He’s been a monster without Wood starting and 36 DK points with five turnovers and only five real points on 2-16 shooting. Ride the chalk and don’t worry. In cash, I wouldn’t get cute. Play Boogie on FD, and likely the Bam/Boogie combo on DK. We’ll see what the ownership looks like.

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBA

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/22

Christopher Day
written by Christopher Day

It’s Fajita Friday people – get up and get pumped for a juicy NBA slate! Ton of news to follow already as I’m typing this so make sure to look for updates in Discord.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Trae Young ($9,900 FD / $9,600 DK)

With the Atlanta Hawks taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves on tonight’s NBA slate, there is no need to identify which matchup looks like one of, if not the most attractive to us. Two teams that play fast and no defense is exactly what we are looking for, and Trae Young fits the bill perfectly; possibly without both De’Andre Hunter and Cam Reddish again tonight, in addition to Bogdan Bogdonovic and Danilo Gallinari, Trae’s 31.9% usage rate and 24 PPG will be relied upon heavily to get them the win.

Kyrie Irving ($9,200 FD / $9,000 DK)

Kyrie Revenge Narrative 2.0 – not only did the Cavs beat the Nets in a double-overtime thriller just two days ago, but Kyrie saw Collin Sexton wearing his number in Cleveland, his shoes, and dropped 42/5/5. From a more analytical standpoint, Kyrie led the Big 3 with a 30.6% usage rate on the night and with the Nets now having the 28th-ranked defensive efficiency since acquiring James Harden, they need all the offense they can get on a nightly basis, and it starts with Kyrie Irving. Core Play

Others to Consider:

  • Dejounte Murray ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
  • De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 FD / $8,800 DK)

Shooting Guards

Zach Lavine ($9,300 FD / $9,500 DK)

The price is getting high for Chicago’s lead man, but it’s well worth considering, nonetheless. Lavine sits 5th in the NBA scoring race, averaging 27.4 PPG across 35.6 MPG. Facing a Charlotte Hornets backcourt that allows over 47 FPPG to opposing ball handlers, Lavine is in a great spot tonight.

Victor Oladipo ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)

His price quickly increased after his move to Houston from Indiana, but Victor Oladipo is not only part of our cash core on tonight’s NBA slate, but is also worthy of GPP consideration despite high ownership expectations. Sporting a ridiculous 40% usage rate in two games for the Rockets, Dipo has averaged 27/5/7.5 on 44.4% shooting and will be tasked with an even greater load on offense considering the absence of Christian Wood.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,400 FD / $8,700 DK)

We love this game to begin with so it’s only natural to target the primary offensive weapon for the Timberwolves in the absence of Karl-Anthony Towns. Without his childhood friend, DLo has a 31.5% usage rate, including a 35.1% clip versus the Hawks just a few days ago, where he dropped 31 points in 32 minutes.

Others to Consider:

  • James Harden ($10,700 FD / $10,800 DK)
  • Fred VanVleet ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
  • Collin Sexton ($7,500 FD / $7,300 DK)
  • Kevin Huerter ($5,900 FD / $5,900 DK)

Small Forwards

Jerami Grant ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

An offensive force for the Pistons thus far, Grant will get ample opportunity to flourish in one of the best game environments on the NBA slate. Facing a Houston Rockets team that already struggles mightily on the defense end, they will be without Christian Wood tonight and inserting Boogie Cousins into the starting lineup. Grant, a 3-and-D wing with length and a good mid-range game, will be able to take advantage of the likes of Eric Gordon, David Nwaba, and Jae’Sean Tate on the wing all night long.

RJ Barrett ($6,900 FD / $6,800 DK)

Playing for Tom Thibodeau certainly has its perks: one of which, being a starter, you’ll likely be Top-10 in the NBA in minutes per game (MPG). Tied for second-most in the league along with teammate Julius Randle, Barrett’s 37.1 MPG has given him more than enough playing time to truly polish his game to the tune of 17.8 PPG and being an offensive catalyst for the Knicks this season. Facing the NBA’s worst defense in Sacramento, there’s no reason to believe Thibs won’t run his starters into the ground here again tonight.

OG Anunoby ($6,000 FD / $6,100 DK)

Not only has OG Anunoby been counted on tremendously this season given the Raptors’ struggles at center and in the paint, but now Pascal Siakam may not play tonight. Despite only having a mere 15.7% usage rate on the season, OG has been consistent on both ends of the floor, averaging 13.4 PPG and 2 steals per game, hitting 30+ fantasy points in five straight.

Others to Consider:

  • Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,700 DK)
  • Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD / $5,700 DK)

Power Forwards

Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $9,900 DK)

Sabonis featured as a Gem – surprise to no one. By now, if you don’t know that I consider him one of, if not the most underrated big man in the NBA, I don’t know what to tell you. The price is steep on DK and I likely won’t get there, but with a ton of questionable options at PF on FD, Sabonis is the rock you can use in your lineup tonight. Averaging the most minutes per game in the league, there isn’t anything this big man doesn’t do: averaging 21.9/12.6/5.6 in 14 games thus far, Indiana will not only need their star on the offensive end, but to also guard Vucevic on the perimeter.

Julius Randle ($8,900 FD / $9,100 DK)

Thibs gonna Thibs – Julius Randle is in the midst of arguably his best NBA season yet, not only thanks to improved play on the offensive end of the ball, but because of Coach Thibodeau’s reluctancy to take him off the court. Averaging 22.4/11.4/6.3 on a 27.1% usage rate, Randle will make Marvin Bagley and Richaun Holmes look silly tonight.

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)

The Unicorn has come back in full force and really took a load off of Luka Doncic and Co. Sporting a 27.8% usage rate thus far, Porzingis is already averaging over 20 PPG and attacking the glass with 8.8 RPG. The 6.2 FGA from deep is surely only going to add to his value considering he is shooting a mere 29% from outside the arc, but Zinger will have his way with an ageing Spurs frontcourt tonight.

Others to Consider:

  • Chris Boucher ($7,800 FD / $7,300 DK)
  • PJ Washington ($6,800 FD / $6,800 DK)

Centers

Primary Options:

  • Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
  • Clint Capela ($9,200 FD / $8,300 DK)
  • Andre Drummond ($8,600 FD / $9,400 DK)
  • Demarcus Cousins ($4,500 FD / $4,400 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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NBAPremium

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22

This slate is massive, so don’t get too overwhelmed. Fortunately, the Wizards game was booted because that would have been massively chalky so we have some other areas to target. Let’s not waste a ton of time and get into this 11 game slate for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/22 and find the path!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

  1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
  2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
  3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
  4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
  5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Teams Missing Players

Houston – Christian Wood, John Wall

Boston – Jayson Tatum

Miami – Jimmy Butler and Tyler Herro/Goran Dragic are qustionable

Atlanta – Danilo Gallinari, Bogdan Bogdanovic, possibly Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter

Minnesota – KAT, Ricky Rubio, Juancho Hernangomez

Dallas – Josh Richardson, Dorian Finney-Smith, Maxi Kleber, Dwight Powell

Oklahoma City – Al Horford

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,600 DK/$9,900 FD) – Perhaps the 38 real points scored will wake Young up from his issues so far this season. Yes, some of it was in overtime but Young was a monster last game. He recovered from a 2-11 start from the field to go 11-26 and he continues to get to the free throw line like no other player. Nobody takes more than his 10.4 attempts per game and Minnesota is the same great matchup they were earlier this week in pace and poor defense. They also still are missing Karl Anthony-Towns, making it easier for Young and his 17.8 drives per game to find the cup.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I likely can’t get there on DK but on FD Fox is still far too cheap. He’s pacing the Kings with a 29.8% usage rate and has a 31.3% assist rate on top of it. The Knicks will be rolling in on a back to back, and they won’t be able to guard Fox that effectively. Fox drives 15.8 times per game, and he’s passing 33.5% of the time off the drives. That will help avoid some of Mitchell Robinson and Julius Randle down low, making Fox a very safe play on FD.

Chris Paul ($7,200 DK/$6,900 FD) – The spot isn’t exactly as easy for CP3 tonight but FD won’t put his price over $7,000 so we need to take notice. Last game was his first under 30 FD in the calendar year and the Nuggets sport the seventh-worst defensive rating. They are missing some of the players they had last season (though they weren’t that good last year either) and Paul plays super consistent minutes. Neither team plays at a super fast pace, which probably limits the ceiling. Still, the 1.05 FPPM works at this price range and needing two point guards.

Trey Burke/Jalen Brunson ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD and $4,700 DK/$3,900 FD) – The Mavericks are getting somewhat healthier, but they are still down four players to Covid protocols. That means Burke and Brunson are both still seeing heavy minutes, as they both cleared 30 last game. They also both have right about a 19% usage and Burke has the slight edge in FPPM at 0.81 to 0.71. It’s tough to lean to hard into the metrics because of all the moving parts lately with Dallas. The bottom line is the Spurs are 12th in pace. I’ll be looking to the model to help this decision if I play a cheap guard.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Malcolm Brogdon, Kyle Lowry, Ben Simmons ($8,000 on FD is tempting, but just play Fox), Goran Dragic if active and Herro is out

Shooting Guard

Fred VanVleet ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I’m going to use this spot as a catch-all for the Raptors. They could be missing Pascal Siakam tonight, who is currently questionable. IF HE SITS, FVV would be a prime target for me tonight at under $8,000. Both VanVleet and Kyle Lowry have about a 25% share of the usage and VanVleet is at a 1.31 FPPM. If Siakam plays, I’m just moving right to this next player.

Victor Oladipo ($8,000 DK/$8,500 FD) – Dipo continues to be a usage hog, with 38.9% through his first two games as a Rocket. He’s put up a 1.61 FPPM on just a 54.2% true shooting rate. To wit, he went 7-22 last game and still hit right about 45 DK. He and Christian Wood have been tied at the hip with Dipo only having seven minutes without the talented big. If (and very big if) the ratios held, Dipo would have a 2.02 FPPM. The Pistons sit 24th in points allowed and Dipo is going to be the whole offense tonight outside of Eric Gordon and maybe DeMarcus Cousins. The only reason I would think about a pivot is FVV, but Oladipo is not priced correctly yet.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,700 DK/$8,400 FD) – He’s expensive as all get out, which is scary with a guy like D-Lo. Still, it’s hard to ignore the upside here. He’s sporting a 30.5% usage and a 32.8% assist rate with KAT and Rubio off the floor, quite nice in and of itself. Russell has the ball in his hands an average of 4.6 second per touch, and that’s only going up without the pieces of the offense that are missing. These two teams check in 10th and seventh in pace, making this an excellent environment to target overall.

Kendrick Nunn ($5,400 DK/$6,200 FD) – Utter chalk last time he was on the slate, Miami could be down Herro and Dragic tonight. If they are both missing, I suppose we can turn back but this feels like it could end tragically bad tonight for our lineups. He literally just put up 12 DK points in 27 minutes not three games ago. Nunn has also shot a combined 17-27 from the field the past two games, not likely to continue. The only way I’ll play him is if Dragic and Herro are out AND he’s projected chalk.

Kevin Huerter ($5,900 DK/$5,900 FD) – He’s playable on DK now since he’s not $9,500 anymore and he’s filled in with Reddish missing the past few games. During those contests, Huerter has played 36, 41 and 39 minutes so we know that aspect is there. He’s nothing special as he has just a 0.88 FPPM but the boatload of minutes and the matchup counteract that factor. If Reddish continues to miss, I’m likely playing Huerter on both sites.

Honorable Mention – Reddish if active, Zach LaVine, Paul George, Collin Sexton

Small Forward

Gordon Hayward ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – A matchup against the Bulls is fantasy nirvana, as they run at the second-fastest pace and are third in points allowed. That’s something we’re always going to stack and Hayward is under $8,000 on both sites. He’s leading the Hornets in usage at 25.2% on the season and a 1.09 FPPM. That seems odd, but Hayward has flashed ceiling multiple times this season. He’s playing over 34 minutes per game so that helps and is scoring over 22 real points per game. I’ll take that in this spot for this price.

R.J. Barrett ($6,800 DK/$6,900 FD) – They are on a back to back but coach Tom Thibodeau doesn’t care. He’s still going to run Barrett nearly 38 minutes and the Kings might be even better than the Bulls for a matchup. They’re eighth in pace but dead last in points allowed, a perfect spot for Barrett. He’s still struggling with his shot since he has just a 47.5% true shooting rate but the usage rate is 23.7% and the FPPM is 0.91. When you get him right for the shot on a certain night, he’s got some ceiling as well. Going against the Kings would check the boxes to hit that ceiling.

Cedi Osman ($6,500 DK/$5,900 FD) – Osman played an insane 50 minutes last game, but he’s typically playing almost 32 per game. Even with Sexton back last game, Osman still took 17 shots and Brooklyn is still a dreadfully poor defensive team. They still run at the fifth-fastest pace and Cedi is averaging 0.88 FPPM. The usage honestly isn’t even that poor at 22.1% although the 49.9% true shooting can bite you. With the minutes he’s getting and the pace of this game, I’d be comfortably playing him on FD. On DK, I’m likely going elsewhere.

Eric Gordon ($5,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – My initial read is you can play three Rockets in cash even on such a big slate. They are back down to about three NBA players, no disrespect to the players left. Gordon is cheap enough that we can overlook the fact he’s not likely to do much but score, and he should be given plenty of chances tonight. He took 20 shots last game and could attempt even more with Wood out for the game. That’s honestly enough at this price, especially on FD.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes, Cameron Johnson

Power Forward

Kristaps Porzingis ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – I feel like KP is still too cheap on both sites because he’s rounding into form quickly. He went over 50 on both sites last game on the strength of a 27/13 line and has every chance to do that again tonight. KP is already 11th in paint touches per game and even though the Spurs are fourth in paint points allowed, they don’t have anyone to stop Zinger. Who’s guarding him? LaMarcus Aldridge? No chance. The Spurs are 26th in rebounds allowed in the paint, making this a great spot for a double-double. KP and Luka are already running pick and roll effectively, with KP averaging the seventh-most points per game as the roll man.

P.J. Washington ($6,800 DK/$6,800 FD) – I think he may get a lot of attention on FD, and it’s hard to argue that the way he’s been playing. He’s actually right next to Hayward in FPPM at 1.06 and has a usage over 21% himself. Washington has recorded three straight double-doubles and the Hornets and Bulls are tied in rebounds per game at 44.8, 13th in the NBA. With 5.3 paint touches per game and 13.7 rebounding chances per game, Washington checks the boxes in a fast paced shootout.

Isaiah Roby ($5,000 DK/$4,500 FD) – FD just refuses to raise the guys price, and he’s more than affordable on DK. With Al Horford off the floor, Roby has a 1.03 FPPM on the year to go with a usage rate about 19%. This is far from an easy spot against the Clippers but they are 15th in paint points allowed on the year. Roby averages 4.1 paint touches a game and they’ll need him with the size of Serge Ibaka and Ivaca Zubac.

Honorable Mention – Julius Randle, Damontas Sabonis, Bam Adebayo, Lauri Markkanen

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,200 FD) – As I’m writing now, we don’t have the glaring value to get this high in salary and shouldn’t force it. However, if it opens up, consider Jokic. He’s one of (if not the) best bets for 50 DK on any given night. Deandre Ayton will get schooled by Big Honey, as most players do. The 1.65 FPPM and 28.9% usage is bonkers and he just put up 55 FD points in three quarters. Jokic is a safe investment every single night.

DeMarcus Cousins ($4,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – I won’t spend a lot of time on center today because this is the cash play at the position. The last time Wood missed a game, Boogie posted 40 DK points in just 23 minutes. I will say that the minutes are a small concern because he’s not going to go much past 25. It doesn’t matter in cash for two reasons. First, he’s still so cheap and averages a 1.29 FPPM with Wood and Wall off the floor. Second, everyone is going to play him. He’s uber chalk and will be in both Core’s unless something changes.

Honorable Mention – Joel Embiid, Clint Capela, Mason Plumlee

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBAPremium

NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four

Adam Strangis
written by Adam Strangis

NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four

We only have three games tonight, so the article is condensed down again. For a three game slate, we have some serious star power and no clear pathway to value yet. That’s going to make things difficult as we stand, but we all know that the NBA changes in a hurry. Let’s get down to business and figure out who to prioritize on this star-studded NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four!

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,500 DK/$11,300 FD) – We just talked on Tuesday about the need for raw points on this slate. Maybe Giannis won’t finish with a ceiling game of 70 DK points and have the flame emoji. He does average the most fantasy points on the slate and is in the premier game of the night. The 34% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM leads the slate as well, and sometimes not much else matter but that. The matchup against LA didn’t hurt him that badly last year, as he recorded at least 57 DK in both games.

Steph Curry ($9,600 DK/$9,300 FD) – On a slate with LeBron, Anthony Davis and Curry it can be difficult to pick out of the three. To me, Curry is the choice. Since I’m only playing GPP tonight, I’ll take the chance Chef Curry cooks me a 70 burger tonight. He’s shown more ceiling than the Lakers duo is they seem mostly content to just get through the season. The Brian Tulloch Narrative will be these two teams are going to throw down (and more on that in a minute). Brian may be right, but if you’re not stacking the Bucks game Curry is the man for me. The Knicks sit fifth in frequency of three point attempts given up. Seems like a bad plan for perhaps the best marksman the NBA has ever seen. On top of that, the Knicks have nobody that can even pretend to guard him.

Immanuel Quickley ($4,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – I could just tell you about how the rookie is quoted as saying Curry was one of his favorite players coming up. I could tell you how his past four games he’s posted 19, 23, 17 and 11 real points. This things are true but what catches my eye is that over that time period of those four games, Quickley has a 33.9% usage rate. I understand the minutes are volatile because he only played 19 last game. Having said that, this is the kind of value we need on the slate. He’s very cheap and he’s shown 7-8x ability. Quickley seems ready to go and show Curry what he’s about, and I’m here for it.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – I got freaked out with Joe Ingles back but it looks like I underestimated Clarkson. Last season, he had a 26% usage rate but just a 0.95 FPPM with a 9.8% assist rate. This year the assist rate is up to just under 13% and the FPPM went to 1.18. His true shooting rate is a touch high, but the Jazz have him staggered when Donovan Mitchell is off the floor. Utah is also taking the third-most triples per game and Clarkson is one of the main engines of the offense this season. His price went down on DK, which we can take advantage of.

Bonus Picks and Pivots

Brian is off in the real world today with work, so I’m going to sub a little bit for Picks and Pivots. I mean, it’s pick a game, find a couple scrubs and hit the gas pedal right? Just kidding bud, all love. Even though he mentioned who he liked, I could have seen this one coming a mile away. The spread in this particular game is just one point and the O/U is 228.5, highest on the slate. Brian is attacking the Lakers/Bucks matchup and here’s the crazy part – you can actually have a shot to fit Giannis, LeBron and AD.

You can plug in that big three and a player like Quickley and still have $4,200 per player left on DK. I bet Brian will harp that the Bucks are looking to get back in the win column after losing a heartbreaker to the Nets.. He’ll also point out how low the price is on the Lakers studs, and how they never should be under $9,500 each. It just feels like these two can turn on the jets at any point. Realistically, the 1.45 FPPM for LeBron and 1.35 FPPM for AD is nothing to be upset about. They split the usage with Bron sitting at 32% and Davis at 25%. These are the games that LeBron still gets up for, and Brook Lopez won’t be able to do much to help down low on Davis.

Now we need to see who else we can run with the main stack and we need some cheap guys. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is interesting. He’s not playing a ton of minutes but he’s shooting the three ball at a ridiculous 53.7% rate. With the Bucks allowing the ninth-highest field goal percentage from deep, this is a good spot for a game of around 27 DK like KCP had against Houston just four games ago.

Perhaps we could also look at Bobby Portis in this game, as he’s getting about 22-24 minutes a night. The bench for the Bucks is not near what it used to be and it’s actually Portis who has the third-highest FPPM on the team, not Jrue Holiday. Both teams are in the top 20 in pace and this should be a great contest. If we take some flyers on these fringe players and the studs hit, we could be off and running.

Thank you for reading NBA Thursday 1/21 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

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NBAPremium

NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 01/20

Richard Masana
written by Richard Masana

With yesterday’s two-game slate behind us, we’re back to the NBA standard with a plethora of good matchups on tap and a much larger player pool. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems, so you know we’re going all in tonight! Let’s get to it

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,400 DK)

Now that Ja Morant is back in the Memphis lineup, they are back to playing at a much faster pace and having one of the worst individual defenders in the NBA on the court for 33+ minutes. Enter Damian Lillard, who will be seeing the sophomore and defending Rookie of the Year for the majority of the night. Sporting a near 30% usage rate before CJ McCollum went down with an injury, Lillard sees a notable 2.5% uptick with his backcourt run mate off the floor and has one of the highest volumes on the slate with 19.3 FGA per game, including 10.1 per game from deep.

Steph Curry ($9,800 FD / $9,700 DK)

After leading the Warriors to yet another 4th quarter comeback the only night versus the Lakers, where they were down by 14 heading into the final frame, Curry is right back in action tonight versus the Spurs. Sitting at 7-6 and one win away from a Top-4 seed in the West, the Warriors will only go as far as their best player can take them. Sporting a 32.5% usage rate on the season, Curry is averaging 28.2 PPG and the MVP candidate is only shooting 36.6% from deep – with San Antonio’s soft defense versus primary ball handlers, he’s in a great spot tonight.

Trae Young ($9,000 FD / $9,300 DK)

The disrespect lives on for the kid in Atlanta. After a slow start to the season, Young has now dropped 50+ FP in two straight thanks to a ridiculous 25 free throw attempts. Needing only 8 shots from the field last game to drop 20 points, look for Young to take advantage of the Magic’s inexperienced point guard in rookie, Cole Anthony.

Others to Consider:

  • Ja Morant ($7,900 FD / $7,300 DK)
  • Dejounte Murray ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
  • De’Aaron Fox ($7,800 FD / $8,900 DK)

Shooting Guards

Paul George ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)

While I likely won’t get here on DK, this price is simply too cheap for PG on FD. He’s due for some regression (yes, I hate that word) in his true shooting percentage (TS%) which currently sits at 68.8%, but Sacramento is dead last in the NBA versus primary ball handlers. I’ve said it again and again, Luke Walton’s defensive scheme is the worst in the entire league, and there’s no reason to not have at least some form of exposure to George on FD when he is sporting a 28.1% and scoring 24.8 PPG across 34.5 MPG and contributing on the defensive side of the ball.

D’Angelo Russell ($8,400 FD / $8,800 DK)

Although it is nowhere near the same game environment he had the other day versus Atlanta, as long as Karl-Anthony Towns is out of the Minnesota lineup, DLo will garner interest in NBA GPPs. Acting as the primary ball-handler for the T-Wolves with Ricky Rubio coming off the bench for the majority of the season, Russell now finds himself without the veteran point guard and has all the usage in the world available to him. Coming off a 31/3/7 game where he shot the ball 22 times, including 13 from deep, he’ll be much needed versus the Magic tonight.

Others to Consider:

  • Fred VanVleet ($7,600 FD / $7,500 DK)
  • Derrick Rose ($6,500 FD / $5,400 DK)

FD-only Bonus Play: Kevin Huerter ($5,500)

Small Forwards

Kawhi Leonard ($9,100 FD / $9,400 DK)

We wrote him PG in this game environment, so it’s only natural that we have interest in The Klaw as well. While the 18 FGA per game isn’t represented by how inconsistent his volume can be, the efficiency at which Leonard operates makes him one of the best in the NBA: Sporting a 28.9% usage rate, Kawhi shot over 60% from the field in three of his past four games. Before last game’s 17-point performance, he had a 6-game run of 20 or more points, and he’ll be able to dominate both on and off-ball tonight.

Jerami Grant ($8,400 FD / $7,700 DK)

Transitioning from a defensive specialist in Denver to an offensive catalyst in Detroit is certainly not what we expected out of Jerami Grant this season. Yet, here we are, and he’s averaging 24.9 PPG on 46.7% shooting with a 26.4% usage rate. With Blake Griffin and Mason Plumlee both generating more action on the defensive end of the ball and on the glass, this is Grant’s offense, and a matchup versus a fast-paced, turnover-prone Hawks team is perfect for his game.

Jaylen Brown ($8,300 FD / $8,700 DK)

Others to Consider:

  • OG Anunoby ($6,000 FD / $5,900 DK)
  • De’Andre Hunter ($5,600 FD / $6,200 DK)
  • Duncan Robinson ($5,200 FD / $5,800 DK)
  • Eric Gordon ($5,200 FD / $5,500 DK)

Power Forwards

Christian Wood ($9,800 FD / $8,400 DK)

Many players are mispriced on DK and Christian Wood is one of them. Looking like an NBA slate where I’ll be playing two centers, Wood slots in nicely in the mid-to-upper range with elite upside; he’s now sporting a 27.8% usage rate on the season with 23.8 PPG and 10.7 RPG, needing only 31 minutes last game to drop 30 points. On an offense that now only features Victor Oladipo while John Wall is injured, Wood is the go-to option for these Rockets.

Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)

Death, taxes, Sabonis in DFS. Leading the NBA in MPG at 37.5, Sabonis is also fourth in RPG with 12.8 and chimes in with a cool 21.7 PPG. While a matchup versus Porzingis is far from ideal, their playing styles fit one another perfectly, meaning Sabonis will be tasked with not only guarding KP, but will have to make sure he continues running the offense in an efficient manner; an uptick in usage can only mean good things for the big man.

Chris Boucher ($8,100 FD / $7,300 DK)

What can be said about Chris Boucher right now? This guy is simply on a tear, as we predicted in the preseason preview show, and the Raptors are finally realizing he needs to see 30+ minutes per game if they want to win. In the past two weeks, Boucher is averaging 19 PPG to go along with 7.9 RPG, 2.9 blocks, and 2.4 made threes all while shooting 66.67% from the field and 54.8% from deep. Take advantage of the price point right now, because it’s exactly where it needs to be before he gets too expensive.

Others to Consider:

  • Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500 FD / $7,900 DK)
  • Aaron Gordon ($7,000 FD / $7,400 DK)

Centers

Primary Options:

  • Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $8,600 DK)
  • Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $9,600 DK)
  • Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,600 DK)

Others to Consider:

  • Enes Kanter ($6,300 FD / $6,300 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model here.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost

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