NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1

We’re back with a big 10 game slate tonight and that is a lot of games to go over. We’ll have plenty of options to choose from and quite a bit of information to process. We have one of the biggest names in basketball in a smash spot and coming into this one in top form. Let’s figure out who we’re talking about and plenty more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 and figure out where we’re heading!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Injury Report

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter (O), Trae Young (Q)

Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q)

Heat – Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic (Q)

Wolves – KAT (O), Naz Reid (Q)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic, Derrick Jones Jr. (O)

Pelicans – Steven Adams (Q)

Thunder – George Hill (O)

Suns – Devin Booker (Q)

Grizzlies – Jonas Valanciunas, Jaren Jackson (O)

Nuggets – Gary Harris (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 Positions

Point Guard

De’Aaron Fox ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD) – I don’t see it being a slate to spend all the way up on point guard as of now. The best option would be Damian Lillard, who is perfectly fine but not my highest priority. Fox is a player that jumps off the page. Sacramento plays at the 11th fastest pace in the league and New Orleans has been playing a lot faster lately, sixth over the past three weeks. This is the perfect spot for Fox to excel, since the Pelicans and Kings are bottom three in defensive rating over that same three-week time period. On the season, Fox has a usage rate over 30% and has a fantastic outlook in a shootout tonight.

Ja Morant ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD) – Folks reading might not be too excited with this pick after Ja only put up 37 DK last game. Here’s the catch – he only played 28 minutes. The Grizzlies were a little careful with their franchise cornerstone but now that he’s got a game under him, look out. We like Morant again tonight for all the same reason as last time. The Spurs are quietly playing at a much faster pace than is traditional, and they’ve taken a step back defensively as well. Morant should not be under $8,000 on either site.

LaMelo Ball ($6,500 DK/$6,300 FD) – I’m only paying this price if Terry Rozier is out. Fortunately, both sites did jump him after his monster game but word of caution – he was on pace for 24 minutes at halftime. Rozier left after that and Ball played 19 minutes out of 24 in the second half. Ball shines in the stats without Rozier on the floor with a 23.8% usage and a 1.27 FPPM. I certainly don’t question the talent, just the minutes when the Hornets are healthy. If they’re not tonight, I don’t see how we can skip Melo.

Theo Maledon ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD) – It’s no longer DialloZSN as Maledon is the man to turn to when George Hill is out. The past two games he’s posted 30 and 33 minutes, which is far too much to pass at this price. Maledon only has a 0.76 FPPM with Hill off the floor, but the minutes makes up for the lackluster ratio. The Rockets have climbed to the top in pace over the past few weeks, and that’s a great spot to target a cheap starter. We shouldn’t expect 6-6 from three again, but even 22-26 fantasy points makes it well worth the play.

Honorable Mention – Chris Paul, Dame, Lonzo Ball/Eric Bledsoe

Shooting Guard

Victor Oladipo ($8,000 DK/$8,200 FD) – Talk about efficiency, Dipo is coming off a 40 point game where he only played 25 minutes. He’s been playing 32+ with the Rockets so I’m not particularly worried. I mentioned earlier just how fast the Rockets are playing and since Dipo has been there, his usage rate is 30.7% and the FPPM is 1.22. He is probably priced to the ceiling, but that’s fine in cash games. Especially on FD, the high end of the position is a little sketchy.

Gary Trent Jr. ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – I normally hate scoring dependent player but the Blazers just aren’t letting Trent off the floor right now. The past three games he’s logged 41, 38 and 37 minutes on the floor. Here’s the one aspect that I really do like for Trent – the three ball. He’s hoisted a ridiculous 32 over those three games. That’s a nice thing to have in your pocket when you face the Milwaukee Bucks. They rank seventh in frequency allowed and are suddenly giving up the third-highest percent from behind the arc. This is a perfect spot to use a scoring-heavy player like Trent with both teams in the top half of the league in pace.

Tyrese Haliburton ($5,200 DK/$5,400 FD) – I always like to target players in the high pace games, and it’s a bonus when neither team can play defense. The rookie is always a prime cash candidate at this salary. One of the reasons is he fills the stat sheet all the way across. Look at the last four games – he’s totaled 43 real points but has been at 27 FD points in three of four. The assist rate is 27.3%, second on the team to only Fox. The minutes have been key as he’s logged at least 30 in the past four games, and is line to do it again tonight.

Cam Reddish ($4,900 DK/$4,600 FD) – There’s not a lot to love with the matchup against the Lakers, but there is opportunity. Reddish is going to be on the floor a ton, logging 35 and 32 minutes the past two games. De’Andre Hunter is out for this game, and the Hawks continue to be without Bogdan Bogdanovic. With those two off the floor, Reddish boasts a 24.1% usage and a 1.03 FPPM in over 100 minutes. At this price (especially on FD), we have to take a look.

Honorable Mention – Possibly Tyler Herro/Kendrick Nunn, SGA

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,200 DK/$8,000 FD) – We’ve already talked about two Kings so it stands to reason that we should talk about some Pelicans. Ingram stands out for sure on both sites with a reasonable price tag and an elite game environment. BI has a 28% usage rate and he and Zion Williamson are neck and neck at about a 1.15 FPPM. This game is one of two that are over 235 at the moment and it’s likely to stay there. The difference between this game and the Blazers game is this one is a 3.5 point spread. Anytime we can get Ingram running back and forth, I’m interested.

R.J. Barrett ($6,700 DK/$6,700 FD) – The Knicks will be on their third game in four days but I’m not sure that matters to the coaching staff. Barrett actually only played 30 minutes yesterday, which must feel like a nice break. The second-year pro has his true shooting rate over 50% for the first time all year and still has a 23.6% usage rate. We always like going after the Bulls since they play so fast and it’s a bit time pace up spot for Barrett. He and Julius Randle are tied for fifth in minutes this season and he seems like a lock for about 30-35 fantasy points again tonight.

Kyle Anderson ($5,800 DK/$5,800 FD) – The state of SF is really not great tonight. You could buy into the Jerami Grant Revenge Tour in Denver, but is it really revenge when you got paid what Grant did? Maybe, but the form has been poor lately. Slo-Mo checks in for me as a safe-ish option with not a ton of upside, but some solid floor. He’s really not too shabby from the statistical department with JoVal off the floor. Anderson sports a 21.6% usage and a 1.12 FPPM, second-best after Ja. Even in just 20 minutes last time out, he managed 30 FD points. He’s not been below 20 all year and eight of 12 games have been over 25. That’s good enough at this tag.

Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Grant, LeBron

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,000 DK/$11,600 FD) – I said last game that Greek was going to go off. Granted, that’s not a big leap of faith but he hasn’t had the same amount of ceiling games this year that we’re accustomed to. After 72 DK points, 39 minutes and one rebound short of a massive triple-double, I’ll say again – Giannis is going to go absolutely HAM SANDWICH in this game. They will spend their night throwing Robert Covington and Carmelo Anthony at him. El. Ol. El. When Greek gets to the paint (which will be whenever he pleases), Enes Kanter is waiting there for him. I hope Dame and company can hit enough three’s to keep this one close because I think we get another 65+ from Giannis tonight.

Julius Randle ($9,200 DK/$8,800 FD) – Randle got back on track last game and gets a fantastic spot tonight. We always target the Chicago front court and tonight it’s the same song and dance. The two teams are polar opposites in pace, which will help Randle grab some extra opportunities. I mean, this man is 12th in touches in the NBA. He’s got more per game than Steph Curry, Bradley Beal, Joel Embiid and Donovan Mitchell to name a few. His 1.26 FPPM is easily the best on the team and it’s going to shine through tonight.

Robert Covington ($5,000 DK/$4,900 FD) – I’m likely only on him on FD, since the steals and blocks count for more. RoCo is 13th in the league in steals per game and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes here. He played 34 last time out and it will be the same again this time around. The pace up spot helps him out a little and they’re going to need his presence on defense as much as he possibly can. This isn’t much more than the Blazers are just down so many bodies and the pace should be high with a cheap price for RoCo.

Honorable Mention – Christian Wood, Zion (nobody is stopping him in the paint), Xavier Tillman

Center

Deandre Ayton ($8,000 DK/$8,300 FD) – Kristaps Porzingis will play for Dallas tonight, but that doesn’t scare me off Ayton. If Booker plays, I’d not be near as willing to go here. Only five center eligible players log more minutes than Ayton, which helps him a lot. Dallas is also a great matchup, sitting dead last in paint points allowed and Ayton just tagged them for a massive double-double. With Booker off the floor, Ayton has seen his usage jump by 2% to a 21.6%. With Dallas just 28th in rebounding, Ayton has a good shot to hit a big double-double again tonight.

Cody Zeller ($5,300 DK/$5,200 FD) – The past three games have been rock solid to excellent for Zeller from a fantasy perspective. He’s hit 37 DK twice and 24 once, which is a nice mix. 37 would be a 7x return while the 24.5 wouldn’t totally cripple you at this price. The Heat are actually dead last in rebounding on the year, and Zeller has snagged 35 in the past three contests. If they run him another 34 minutes like they did last game, he could be flirting with 40 DK yet again. I would expect him to match Bam Adebayo quite a bit so we should expect some good run.

Jaxson Hayes ($4,000 DK/$3,600 FD) – This is only if Steven Adams is out, and nothing else. If the Big Kiwi misses, the field is going to turn to Jaxson Hayes. An imperfect player, there’s still flashes in his game through limited minutes in his career. He’s got a 0.82 FPPM on just a 12.6% usage rate and if Adams is out, that’s 30 minutes opened up in the rotation. The Kings are 26th in rebounding and 18th in paint points allowed, the right spot to target the young man. Let’s make sure the day unfolds like we need it to but he could be the salary saver tonight.

Honorable Mention – Joker, Clint Capela

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/1 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/29

WE have one of the bigger slates on tap tonight with 10 games, a change from just four last night. Much like Wednesday, just be sure to try and focus on keeping out the noise. We’ll follow the cores and the model and it will all work out. Stay tuned to the Discord chat because it’s likely going to be a needed tool for a slate this size. Let’s get the ball rolling and look at who we want to highlight in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/29 to find the green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Atlanta – Clint Capela, Cam Reddish (Q)

Pelicans – Lonzo Ball (Q)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)

Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)

Sixers – Joel Embiid (Q)

T’Wolves – KAT, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarrett Culver (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q)

Thunder – George Hill (O)

Clippers – Kawhi, Paul George (Q)

Jazz – Donovan Mitchell (Q)

Point Guard

Trae Young ($9,100 DK/$10,600 FD) – The FD price is too high but the DK pricing is ridiculously low. Young gets a pace up spot against the worst defensive team in the whole league. The Wizards allow the sixth-most points in the paint on the season and Young is driving the fourth-most in the NBA. He’s also eighth in points from drives on the year, and this spot couldn’t get much better for him. If this one stays close it should eclipse 235 points somewhat easily. Also, if Russell Westbrook is off his minutes restriction, this could be a fun chance to stack them up.

De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD) – I will have my Fox exposure on FD, since he’s nearly $3,000 cheaper than Young. He sits 13th in touches per game right now at about 81 a night. The Kings play fast and can coax an up and down game from the Raptors. Fox is the pick and roll ball handler about 40% of the time. The Raptors face that play type the lowest frequency in the league, but give up an average points per possession. Kyle Lowry’s defense has taken a step back so far with the worst defensive rating of his career to this point. Fox should give him some issues tonight.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – Bledsoe is affordable on both sites and he could be without Lonzo Ball again tonight. Without him this year, Bledsoe has a 23.7% usage rate and a 0.98 FPPM. He’s also going to have a bit of extra gusto tonight since the Bucks traded him in the offseason. The Bucks are playing at the seventh-fastest pace on the year and the Pelicans have started to move a bit themselves. They’re almost in the top 20, no mean feat for a team that was 28th recently.

Cole Anthony ($5,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – I’d prefer not to go down this far, but we’ll see what happens through the day. Anthony has a 22.2% usage rate and 0.92 FPPM without Markelle Fultz on the year. That comes with a 46.3% true shooting rate, which is pretty rough. The Clippers are going to be on a back to back here and probably won’t be playing high level defense here. They are likely to be without Kawhi and Paul George on top of it, meaning the game should be competitive tonight.

Honorable Mention – Ben Simmons (if Embiid is out), Dejounte Murray, Mike Conley (if no Mitchell)

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($10,200 DK/$10,500 FD) – We’re on the fence here with Beal. The price is up there, but this is an elite game environment. If Westy is limited in minutes again, I’m much more willing to go here. I mean, Beal is scoring over 35 points per game right now and that’s easily the best in the league. The fastest way to score fantasy points is to score raw points (groundbreaking analysis there). We do have to point out that the Hawks are a surprising 11th in defensive rating, but the also don’t have anyone to stop Beal from putting in shot after shot. He’s fourth in free throw attempts and fantasy gods help John Collins if he’s around Beal.

Fred VanVleet ($7,500 DK/$8,300 FD) – Pascal Siakam is back in the lineup after an injury, but FVV against the Kings is so enticing. The pace is top five and the defense is bottom two, about as good as we get for matchups. This is a player that can rack up 50 FD points on just 10 real points! Sure, we shouldn’t count on the seven combined blocks and steals but he’s not scoring 10 very often either. VanVleet is fifth in three point attempts this year and the Kings are 0.1% away from the highest field goal percentage given up.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,400 DK/$5,800 FD) – If Mitchell remains out, it’s hard not to smash the button for Clarkson on FD if nothing else. He’s still a strong play with Mitchell but without him he’s a lock. Without Mitchell on the floor, Clarkson has a 29.7% usage and a 1.27 FPPM. He’s going to be the main trigger man even off the bench with 21 shot attempts last game in the course of 32 minutes. This is the exact same matchup he just torched and there’s no reason to not go right back to the well.

Hamidou Diallo ($3,900 DK/$4,400 FD) – I want to be a little careful here. Diallo is always a very popular play when George Hill is out, and I suspect that again. However, I’d rather play Cam Reddish on FD for $300 more. Diallo hasn’t cleared 23 minutes but one time all season long. That’s fine for a $3,900 player but it’s not the most ideal situation ever. Reddish played over 30 last game. He sports a 23.6% usage rate and a 1.07 FPPM on the season without Hill, and I’ll happily take the free square if that’s where ownership comes in. Just be aware he could be a solid GPP fade with potentially only 20 minutes.

Honorable Mention – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton, Cam Reddish (if active)

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,900 FD) – He’s still under $8,000 on FD and this could be a very intriguing spot for him. It’s possible he’s without Lonzo, and I suspect that Zion has a bit of a tough time with Giannis on the other side. He won’t be able to just bully his way to the paint so easily. BI picked up the slack when Lonzo was out for the second half last game, posting almost 50 fantasy points. He’s sitting at a 27.4% usage without Ball which isn’t much of a change. However, Zion is at 31%. If he’s struggling, Ingram is going to be the offense in a big time pace up spot.

Tobias Harris ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – This is a rare game where I might worry about the blowout, but I feel like it’s the perfect spot to sit Embiid if you’re Philly. If that’s the case, Harris is a stone cold lock at this salary. Harris posted 35 FD points on Monday without Biid in just 29 minutes. His usage compared to Ben Simmons without Biid is absurd, at 27.3% to 19.7%. No player on the team averages more than a 1.23 FPPM in that scenario and Harris is the engine of the offense as far as shooting goes. Wheels all the way up if Embiid sits out, and he’s still a strong play regardless.

Joe Ingles ($4,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – I….did not expect that from Ingles last game. Surely, it was an outlier game as he went 7-10 from deep so it’s not a good shot to replicate. However, neither site moved the price nearly enough. Ingles is over a fantasy point per minute without Spida on the court and he played 30 minutes. Even at his average, he’s a good bet for 6x on DK at this point. With the Jazz on a tear, I would guess they’re careful with Mitchell tonight. With a concussion, we should know fairly early.

Honorable Mention – Kevin Durant (DK only), Gordon Hayward, Michael Porter, De’Andre Hunter – if you pass on Trae on FD like I will likely do, Hunter is a very logical spot to get some Hawks exposure. If Embiid and Mitchell are out, my three main targets at SF are Harris, Ingles, Hunter in that order.

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 DK/$9,000 FD) – I’m not sure why Sabonis is a good bit lower than normal on FD but I’ll take it. We talk constantly about picking on the front court of the Hornets, and Sabonis racked up a triple-double last time out. This man is just a monster and is right there with Nikola Jokic in touches per game at about 100 a night. Charlotte is 28th in paint points allowed and 17th in rebounding, perfect for Sabonis to attack. He’s sixth in paint points on the year and third in rebounding chances per night. We could be looking at another 50 fantasy points tonight.

Julius Randle ($9,300 DK/$8,800 FD) – This is the first time Randle has been under $9,000 on FD in a hot minute. He openly talked about being fatigued on the road trip, but some home cooking could get him rolling. Maybe he can get a New York Slice like Michael Scott in The Office. Anyways, he matchup is going to be solid as well. Andre Drummond near the paint isn’t scary and even though these two teams are good defensively with a slow pace, Randle can still show off. Cleveland is actually in the bottom 10 in rebounds per game even with Drum, an excellent chance for Randle to hit the glass and show off his 1.27 FPPM with nearly a 28% usage rate.

Marvin Bagley ($5,800 DK/$6,000 FD) – I will admit that the minutes were not great last game with just 21. I’m likely just taking him in cash on FD (though I like him GPP-wise for DK) if I don’t double-dip up high. The Raptors insistence in not playing Chris Boucher has helped lead them to being 26th in rebounds per game. Bagley is not only averaging a career-high 8.2 boards, he’s top 20 in putback points per game. Toronto is just 15th in that category defensively, opening a path for a double-double for Bagley. Just let this man play a bit.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Serge Ibaka, Tauren Prince (if no Nance)

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 DK/$9,200 FD) – Anytime Vuc is under $9,000 on DK he seems to attract some eyes. That’s the right path to take, as he’s averaging nearly 48 DK points on the season. Vuc continues to shoot over 44% from deep and while that’s not a hug part of his game, it doesn’t hurt either. He’s sporting a 1.39 FPPM and a 30% usage rate without Fultz. He’s jus not really priced accurately and I would expect him to be popular in this spot.

Al Horford ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – The center agains the Nets should be in full swing tonight. I don’t think he’ll be popular on DK, but I think FD he could carry some of the highest ownership of the position. After a relatively lengthy absence with the birth of his child (not hating at all, but he missed two weeks), the veteran walked right back into 30 minutes. He went for a double-double end even though Clint Capela was awful last Nets game, the investment isn’t as high with Horford. Grain of salt, but without Hill he has a 1.54 FPPM over 45 minutes.

Cody Zeller ($4,000 DK) – I wouldn’t play him on FD I don’t think, with Horford only $900 more. However, he was wildly popular on DK last game and they only raised him $600. You can go double center if you choose on DK, which is a big reason Zeller should carry some ownership. He just smashed for the field, people will go right back. Across his 92 minutes so far, he has a 1.13 FPPM on just a 16.8% usage. If he’s going to get 30 minutes like last game, he’s mis-priced by roughly $1,000.

Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic (DK only and MPJ has started to bite into the ceiling just slightly), Embiid (if active), Rudy Gobert (DK only)

Thank you for reading and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four

After a pretty frustrating slate (looking SQUARELY at you, Clint Capela), we turn the page to a much more streamlined four game slate. We have a game that is incredible right off the bat with the Blazers and Rockets. There’s also the B squads for the Clippers and Heat squaring off, so this is an interesting slate. Let’s dive in and figure out who makes for the best plays of the slate in the NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four to find the green!

Core Four

Damian Lillard ($10,600 DK/$9,700 FD) – He is the highest salaried player on DK, and he really should be. Both teams are in the top 13 in pace on the season and the Blazers continue to not believe in defense. Lillard has 124 minutes with C.J. McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic and Robert Covington all out tonight and he’s rocking a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.25 FPPM. Dame is the pick and roll ball handler the fifth-most possessions this season and the Rockets are tied for dead last in points per possession to the PnR ball handler. This is an elite spot for Dame Time to go nuts. On FD, the price is disrespectful and not even a question. Even on DK, I’m in.

Carmelo Anthony ($5,600 DK/$5,200 FD) – We’re not going far because we can get another night of vintage Melo in this spot. In the same scenario of who’s missing for Portland, Melo has played 146 minutes and is only behind Dame in usage at 27.5% and a 0.92 FPPM. Even better was seeing him be on the floor for 34 minutes last game, while posting almost 40 fantasy points. He gets the same up-tempo spot that Lillard does and this is the premier game stack of the evening.

Christian Wood ($9,500 FD) – I said this was a great game to stack and I’m sticking with it…. on FD. Wood is due back from a sprained ankle and he says he’s 100%. With the amount of minutes DeMarcus Cousins has played lately, I think Wood walks right back into his normal run of 33 minutes per game. Wood sits 11th in paint touches, which leaves him on Enes Kanter and Harry Giles. Good luck with that fellas. Both of these teams are in the bottom four in rebounds per game, and Wood averages 17.3 rebounding chances per game. That’s 11th in the league and I’m loving this three man mini stack. If we get enough value, I’d love to run Deandre Ayton with him as a double center on DK. We’ll see if that happens or not.

The reason I said I’m lily only playing Wood on FD is because DK has done the unthinkable. They have priced Anthony Davis under $9,000. AD could be play the early 2000’s Pistons and I. Wouldn’t. Care. This man should NEVER be priced below $9,000 on DK. EVER. If people want to fade him, let them. Yes, the Lakers should steamroll the Pistons. AD will be one of the main reasons why and he’s going to eat poor PlumDawg alive. Davis just put up 47 DK points while shooting 5-16 and only scoring 17 real points. Need I say more?

I feel like DK just taunted us and somehow knew that AD would get ruled out. I don’t care for it, I know that. Markieff Morris takes his place on DK because he’s minimum price and has positionally flexibility.

Terrance Mann ($5,400 DK/$4,500 FD) – Mann is a great fit on both sites but especially FD where we need two shooting guards. He played right about 34 minutes last game and put up 30+ DK despite shooting just eight times. Those are the kinds of players I love because they can produce without scoring a bunch. If he scores more this game, the ceiling could be higher. With the Clippers being so short and still only playing Lou Williams about 22 minutes, Mann checks in as a great salary saver again tonight, as DK has priced up the Clippers to an extreme. On FD, Reggie Jackson will also be hard to get away from and I’m fine with both of them together.

Thank you for reading NBA Thursday 1/28 Core Four and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27

If big slates aren’t your favorite, this isn’t going to be the funnest slate ever. I would also highly recommend checking out Tiers contests. Let the model do the work for you and the choices be cut down. We have a sprawling 12 game slate on tap and it can be overwhelming. Remember to not try and fit every single player and refer to the model when deciding between two players that are close in price. That’s how I do it every night and when deciding for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/27 it will be no different to try and find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

Injury Report

Pacers – Damontas Sabonis (Q)

Pistons – Blake Griffin (O)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)

Hawks – Cam Reddish (Q)

Heat – Jimmy Butler (O), Goran Dragic (Q), Tyler Herro (Q)

Raptors – Pascal Siakam (Q)

Wizards – We expect Russell Westbrook to be out, and they still have very limited bodies

Thunder – Al Horford (Q), George Hill (Q)

Suns – Devin Booker (O)

Mavericks – They could get players back from Covid tonight

Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Jarrett Culver (O)

Point Guard

Steph Curry ($9,300 DK/$9,600 FD) – Steph Curry ($9,200 DK/$9,600) – I will never tell you that Luka Doncic isn’t in play at the high end. However, this is the perfect spot for Steph. The Wolves are terrible, and shouldn’t blow out the Warriors. Minnesota also has the mix we look for at a high pace and poor defense, top 10 and bottom 10 respectively. They also rank in the bottom 10 in three point field goal percentage given up. Steph’s 31.7% usage and 1.39 FPPM should shine in this spot, and with these teams third and sixth in pace Steph won’t be the last one we see. It’s a great late hammer and the price on both sites is quite low.

That’s what I wrote two nights ago and it’s a carbon copy. DK only moved his price $100 and it’s just super easy to want to play him, as he posted 50+ on both sites last game.

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,600 DK/$8,300 FD) – I like him either way but if Sabonis is out tonight, I would argue Brogdon is more of a priority than Steph at the position. With Sabonis, TJ Warren and Victor Oladipo off the floor, Brogdon is sporting a massive 1.70 FPPM with a 33% usage rate. To get that kind of production for under $9,000 is impossible to ignore. Both these teams sit between 17 and 20 in pace, but there’s no way we can skip Brogdon if he’s the whole show for Indy tonight.

Chris Paul ($7,600 DK/$7,400 FD) – Another player benefiting from a teammate missing, CP3 is going to be a focus on FD especially. His price is not really high enough on either site and he took 20 shots last game without Devin Booker. With almost 170 minutes in the sample size, Paul is just over a 1.20 FPPM and a 23.6% usage, a bump of 2%. The Thunder are top 12 in pace and it’s always possible Paul wants some “revenge” on the Thunder (not really buying that but CP3 holds grudges man).

Cole Anthony ($5,500 DK/$5,000 FD) – The rookie is starting to look a bit more comfortable in the offense and has scored at least 13 real points in three of the last four. This is the spot that we love so much because the Kings are a DFS dream. They sit ninth in pace and give up the second-most real points in the league. Additionally, the Kings are 12th worst in points per possession to pick and roll ball handlers. Only Trae Young is ahead of Anthony among players with 10 games or more in frequency of that play type.

Honorable Mention – Luka, Kemba Walker

Shooting Guard

Bradley Beal ($10,200 DK/$10,300 FD) – It’s such a huge slate that I don’t think we need to prioritize Beal. However, if Westbrook sits as expected, there’s nothing wrong with playing him either. We’ve used Raul Neto a lot too, but be cautious about his minutes. Beal is rocking a 39.1% usage rate and a 1.63 FPPM without Westy on the floor, and the Wizards will still be low on bodies. The price is high but fair and I don’t expect Eric Bledsoe or Lonzo Ball to be able to defend him in any way.

Fred VanVleet ($7,900 DK/$7,900 FD) – I would back off if Siakam ends up playing, but FVV would be a solid target if not. Only Chris Boucher is better in FPPM than FVV, who sits at 1.18 FPPM. I always love targeting three point shooters against the Bucks. They sit in the bottom 10 in frequency allowed and bottom five in percentage from deep at about 38%. VanVleet is fifth in three pointers attempted per game on the season, making this a perfect spot to hit a whole bunch of them. Milwaukee sitting at seventh in pace doesn’t hurt the matchup either. You could also drop down to Norman Powell who has seen his minutes maxed out with Siakam out. Powell has a 24.6% usage rate with Siakam off the floor.

Eric Bledsoe ($5,800 DK/$5,500 FD) – Any Pelican is in the discussion against the Wizards who will be on a back to back, play at the fastest pace in the league and allow the most real points in the NBA. We don’t exactly set out to play Bledsoe on a nightly basis but the 20% usage rate and 0.87 is fine at this level. I would likely use him only on FD since we need two. There’s not a ton I can say about Bledsoe positively as a fantasy player, it’s more the suspected matchup and salary.

Jeremy Lamb ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – We’ve only seen Lamb for about 100 minutes so far, but the 22.7% usage rate and 1.01 FPPM is pretty solid for the pricing right now. It actually jumps up to 1.18 without Sabonis on the floor, but does come with an 82.8% true shooting rate. The Pacers have shown a willingness to play him 30 minutes when it’s needed and he could be a solid tag team partner with Brogdon if Sabonis is out.

Honorable Mention – Donovan Mitchell, D’Angelo Russell (if active), Tyler Herro (if active)

Small Forward

Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,500 FD) – He’s not a must on DK at all, but he really feels like a need on FD because when can we get Ingram at $7,500? He leads the team at a 28.7% usage and leads in assist rate. There’s nobody that could really defend him on the wing and and he’s not even taking as many three pointers as he did last year. This is way too good a spot and such a sweetheart price, it seems hard to fade. If I’m planning on using a Brogdon and CP3 combo at point guard, I will likely eschew any SF higher than Ingram tonight.

Evan Fournier ($6,400 DK/$5,900 FD) – He’s likely out of my price range on DK, but he’s a perfect compliment to Ingram on FD. Fournier is still under $6,000 and gets the same Kings spot the we love. It’s kind of crazy to see him with a 27.6% usage rate from Fournier when Markelle Fultz is off the court, but that’s the 141 minute sample size. The 1.12 FPPM is very solid and this game should be run and gun. It also helps the Kings allow the highest field goal percentage in the league from deep.

De’Andre Hunter ($6,500 DK/$5,400 FD) – Hunter just hasn’t left the court much the past couple of games with 36 and 41 minutes. Brooklyn may have defended well last game, but I’m not buying that yet. They still run at the fifth-highest pace and the Hawks are 11th, so this has the shootout written all over it. Cam Reddish hasn’t been playing the past couple games and without him, Hunter sits at a 0.97 FPPM. I also wouldn’t be surprised to see Danilo Gallinari sit as well.

Cam Johnson ($4,800 DK/$4,600 FD) – Johnson checks in as a great cheap option and he actually has the highest sample size without Booker on the floor at 166 minutes. He’s got a 1.01 FPPM and a 23.2% usage rate. Now, a good chunk of that is second team usage but if he’s playing 35 minutes a night he’s going to have times when he can rack up usage. Johnson took 16 shots last game and is a nice salary saver.

Honorable Mention – Jaylen Brown, Jerami Grant, Gordon Hayward, Kelly Oubre

Power Forward

Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,600 FD) – Tatum should never be under $9,000 on DK, and he played 31 minutes in his first game back from Covid. He did only score 39 DK points but he was short on his minutes and was under his seasonal averages across the board. Tatum and Brown both have about a 30% usage and a 1.30 FPPM, and Tatum gets to face LaMarcus Aldridge down low. Have fun LMA.

Zion Williamson ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This one is fairly simple because Washington is 28th in points in the paint allowed. Zion is seventh in paint touches overall and points scored in the paint. Now we kick in the pace and the poor defense and I’m very interested. I don’t love how Steven Adams is averaging 16 rebounding chances per game. It feels like it’s taking away from Zion a bit but he’s actually at 7.9 boards per game, up from 6.3 last season. Washington is 24th in rebounding and this is the spot for Zion.

Marvin Bagley ($5,700 DK/$6,000 FD) – I certainly don’t trust coach Luke Walton, but if Bagley is going to play these kinds of minutes he’s too cheap. Bagley actually has a 23.3% usage which is second among starters, but has only turned it into a 0.99 FPPM right now. Part of that is off court stuff, but the results have started to come a bit with the minutes. Bagley has played 30, 29 and 36 in the past three contests. The matchup isn’t the easiest but they need him to help deal with Vuc and Aaron Gordon tonight.

Jarred Vanderbilt ($5,400 DK/$5,400 FD) – We just saw this game and even in just 24 minutes, he hit 31 FD points. Granted, he had two blocks and two steals but this is still a great spot for the young man. He could be a sneaky double-double candidate as the Warriors are 22nd in rebounding on the season. The Wolves are even shorter tonight with Culver not playing, and are still down multiple starters.

Honorable Mention – Giannis, Kristaps Porzingis, Daniel Theis

Center

Clint Capela ($9,100 DK/$10,500 FD) – I don’t know if I could justify the price on FD, but on DK he’s my favorite center. Bam Adebayo just produced 67 real points against this Brooklyn defense and Capela has serious upside. He leads the league in rebounding chances per game and is fifth in paint points. It’s hard to ignore just how great this spot is for Capela and I just have trouble getting away from him.

Nikola Vucevic ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – The smash spot for Vuc. He’s rocking a 30.3% usage rate and a 1.40 FPPM without Fultz. Who in the world is going to defend him? Richaun Holmes? Hassan Whiteside? That’s not going to happen. Vucevic can hit some three’s himself (43.5% so far, wowsers) and on either site he’s a dynamite spend up at center. Sacramento is also 20th in points allowed in the paint and 27th in rebounding. Vucevic checks every single box.

Andre Drummond ($8,400 DK/$8,800 FD) – At some point, the Cavaliers are going to want to get back to featuring Andre Drummond. I know they have Jarrett Allen now but they need to do what they can to get the price up for Drum in trades. He should play 30 or so here and he should also obliterate Detroit. It’s a “revenge” game, although Drum holds no ill will towards the Pistons. The only time he faced them he scored 60+ DK but played 44 minutes. Detroit is 21st in rebounding and 22nd in points in the paint. A sub-$9,000 Drummond is attractive.

Note – There’s not a ton of spend down options yet. Naz Reid, Steven Adams and maybe DeAndre Jordan are on the radar, but not enough to write up. Let’s see how the day breaks.

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