Adam Strangis NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/29
WE have one of the bigger slates on tap tonight with 10 games, a change from just four last night. Much like Wednesday, just be sure to try and focus on keeping out the noise. We’ll follow the cores and the model and it will all work out. Stay tuned to the Discord chat because it’s likely going to be a needed tool for a slate this size. Let’s get the ball rolling and look at who we want to highlight in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 1/29 to find the green!
What We Look For In Cash Formats
- High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x.
- Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night.
- Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized.
- Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why.
- Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.
Injury Report
Atlanta – Clint Capela, Cam Reddish (Q)
Pelicans – Lonzo Ball (Q)
Cavaliers – Larry Nance (Q)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)
Sixers – Joel Embiid (Q)
T’Wolves – KAT, Juancho Hernangomez, Jarrett Culver (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q)
Thunder – George Hill (O)
Clippers – Kawhi, Paul George (Q)
Jazz – Donovan Mitchell (Q)
Point Guard
Trae Young ($9,100 DK/$10,600 FD) – The FD price is too high but the DK pricing is ridiculously low. Young gets a pace up spot against the worst defensive team in the whole league. The Wizards allow the sixth-most points in the paint on the season and Young is driving the fourth-most in the NBA. He’s also eighth in points from drives on the year, and this spot couldn’t get much better for him. If this one stays close it should eclipse 235 points somewhat easily. Also, if Russell Westbrook is off his minutes restriction, this could be a fun chance to stack them up.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 DK/$7,900 FD) – I will have my Fox exposure on FD, since he’s nearly $3,000 cheaper than Young. He sits 13th in touches per game right now at about 81 a night. The Kings play fast and can coax an up and down game from the Raptors. Fox is the pick and roll ball handler about 40% of the time. The Raptors face that play type the lowest frequency in the league, but give up an average points per possession. Kyle Lowry’s defense has taken a step back so far with the worst defensive rating of his career to this point. Fox should give him some issues tonight.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,700 DK/$5,500 FD) – Bledsoe is affordable on both sites and he could be without Lonzo Ball again tonight. Without him this year, Bledsoe has a 23.7% usage rate and a 0.98 FPPM. He’s also going to have a bit of extra gusto tonight since the Bucks traded him in the offseason. The Bucks are playing at the seventh-fastest pace on the year and the Pelicans have started to move a bit themselves. They’re almost in the top 20, no mean feat for a team that was 28th recently.
Cole Anthony ($5,400 DK/$5,200 FD) – I’d prefer not to go down this far, but we’ll see what happens through the day. Anthony has a 22.2% usage rate and 0.92 FPPM without Markelle Fultz on the year. That comes with a 46.3% true shooting rate, which is pretty rough. The Clippers are going to be on a back to back here and probably won’t be playing high level defense here. They are likely to be without Kawhi and Paul George on top of it, meaning the game should be competitive tonight.
Honorable Mention – Ben Simmons (if Embiid is out), Dejounte Murray, Mike Conley (if no Mitchell)
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($10,200 DK/$10,500 FD) – We’re on the fence here with Beal. The price is up there, but this is an elite game environment. If Westy is limited in minutes again, I’m much more willing to go here. I mean, Beal is scoring over 35 points per game right now and that’s easily the best in the league. The fastest way to score fantasy points is to score raw points (groundbreaking analysis there). We do have to point out that the Hawks are a surprising 11th in defensive rating, but the also don’t have anyone to stop Beal from putting in shot after shot. He’s fourth in free throw attempts and fantasy gods help John Collins if he’s around Beal.
Fred VanVleet ($7,500 DK/$8,300 FD) – Pascal Siakam is back in the lineup after an injury, but FVV against the Kings is so enticing. The pace is top five and the defense is bottom two, about as good as we get for matchups. This is a player that can rack up 50 FD points on just 10 real points! Sure, we shouldn’t count on the seven combined blocks and steals but he’s not scoring 10 very often either. VanVleet is fifth in three point attempts this year and the Kings are 0.1% away from the highest field goal percentage given up.
Jordan Clarkson ($6,400 DK/$5,800 FD) – If Mitchell remains out, it’s hard not to smash the button for Clarkson on FD if nothing else. He’s still a strong play with Mitchell but without him he’s a lock. Without Mitchell on the floor, Clarkson has a 29.7% usage and a 1.27 FPPM. He’s going to be the main trigger man even off the bench with 21 shot attempts last game in the course of 32 minutes. This is the exact same matchup he just torched and there’s no reason to not go right back to the well.
Hamidou Diallo ($3,900 DK/$4,400 FD) – I want to be a little careful here. Diallo is always a very popular play when George Hill is out, and I suspect that again. However, I’d rather play Cam Reddish on FD for $300 more. Diallo hasn’t cleared 23 minutes but one time all season long. That’s fine for a $3,900 player but it’s not the most ideal situation ever. Reddish played over 30 last game. He sports a 23.6% usage rate and a 1.07 FPPM on the season without Hill, and I’ll happily take the free square if that’s where ownership comes in. Just be aware he could be a solid GPP fade with potentially only 20 minutes.
Honorable Mention – Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Collin Sexton, Cam Reddish (if active)
Small Forward
Brandon Ingram ($8,000 DK/$7,900 FD) – He’s still under $8,000 on FD and this could be a very intriguing spot for him. It’s possible he’s without Lonzo, and I suspect that Zion has a bit of a tough time with Giannis on the other side. He won’t be able to just bully his way to the paint so easily. BI picked up the slack when Lonzo was out for the second half last game, posting almost 50 fantasy points. He’s sitting at a 27.4% usage without Ball which isn’t much of a change. However, Zion is at 31%. If he’s struggling, Ingram is going to be the offense in a big time pace up spot.
Tobias Harris ($6,800 DK/$7,000 FD) – This is a rare game where I might worry about the blowout, but I feel like it’s the perfect spot to sit Embiid if you’re Philly. If that’s the case, Harris is a stone cold lock at this salary. Harris posted 35 FD points on Monday without Biid in just 29 minutes. His usage compared to Ben Simmons without Biid is absurd, at 27.3% to 19.7%. No player on the team averages more than a 1.23 FPPM in that scenario and Harris is the engine of the offense as far as shooting goes. Wheels all the way up if Embiid sits out, and he’s still a strong play regardless.
Joe Ingles ($4,700 DK/$5,200 FD) – I….did not expect that from Ingles last game. Surely, it was an outlier game as he went 7-10 from deep so it’s not a good shot to replicate. However, neither site moved the price nearly enough. Ingles is over a fantasy point per minute without Spida on the court and he played 30 minutes. Even at his average, he’s a good bet for 6x on DK at this point. With the Jazz on a tear, I would guess they’re careful with Mitchell tonight. With a concussion, we should know fairly early.
Honorable Mention – Kevin Durant (DK only), Gordon Hayward, Michael Porter, De’Andre Hunter – if you pass on Trae on FD like I will likely do, Hunter is a very logical spot to get some Hawks exposure. If Embiid and Mitchell are out, my three main targets at SF are Harris, Ingles, Hunter in that order.
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 DK/$9,000 FD) – I’m not sure why Sabonis is a good bit lower than normal on FD but I’ll take it. We talk constantly about picking on the front court of the Hornets, and Sabonis racked up a triple-double last time out. This man is just a monster and is right there with Nikola Jokic in touches per game at about 100 a night. Charlotte is 28th in paint points allowed and 17th in rebounding, perfect for Sabonis to attack. He’s sixth in paint points on the year and third in rebounding chances per night. We could be looking at another 50 fantasy points tonight.
Julius Randle ($9,300 DK/$8,800 FD) – This is the first time Randle has been under $9,000 on FD in a hot minute. He openly talked about being fatigued on the road trip, but some home cooking could get him rolling. Maybe he can get a New York Slice like Michael Scott in The Office. Anyways, he matchup is going to be solid as well. Andre Drummond near the paint isn’t scary and even though these two teams are good defensively with a slow pace, Randle can still show off. Cleveland is actually in the bottom 10 in rebounds per game even with Drum, an excellent chance for Randle to hit the glass and show off his 1.27 FPPM with nearly a 28% usage rate.
Marvin Bagley ($5,800 DK/$6,000 FD) – I will admit that the minutes were not great last game with just 21. I’m likely just taking him in cash on FD (though I like him GPP-wise for DK) if I don’t double-dip up high. The Raptors insistence in not playing Chris Boucher has helped lead them to being 26th in rebounds per game. Bagley is not only averaging a career-high 8.2 boards, he’s top 20 in putback points per game. Toronto is just 15th in that category defensively, opening a path for a double-double for Bagley. Just let this man play a bit.
Honorable Mention – Giannis, Serge Ibaka, Tauren Prince (if no Nance)
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 DK/$9,200 FD) – Anytime Vuc is under $9,000 on DK he seems to attract some eyes. That’s the right path to take, as he’s averaging nearly 48 DK points on the season. Vuc continues to shoot over 44% from deep and while that’s not a hug part of his game, it doesn’t hurt either. He’s sporting a 1.39 FPPM and a 30% usage rate without Fultz. He’s jus not really priced accurately and I would expect him to be popular in this spot.
Al Horford ($5,900 DK/$5,500 FD) – The center agains the Nets should be in full swing tonight. I don’t think he’ll be popular on DK, but I think FD he could carry some of the highest ownership of the position. After a relatively lengthy absence with the birth of his child (not hating at all, but he missed two weeks), the veteran walked right back into 30 minutes. He went for a double-double end even though Clint Capela was awful last Nets game, the investment isn’t as high with Horford. Grain of salt, but without Hill he has a 1.54 FPPM over 45 minutes.
Cody Zeller ($4,000 DK) – I wouldn’t play him on FD I don’t think, with Horford only $900 more. However, he was wildly popular on DK last game and they only raised him $600. You can go double center if you choose on DK, which is a big reason Zeller should carry some ownership. He just smashed for the field, people will go right back. Across his 92 minutes so far, he has a 1.13 FPPM on just a 16.8% usage. If he’s going to get 30 minutes like last game, he’s mis-priced by roughly $1,000.
Honorable Mention – Nikola Jokic (DK only and MPJ has started to bite into the ceiling just slightly), Embiid (if active), Rudy Gobert (DK only)
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