NBA

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10

Wednesday brings us a nine game slate, and we have no shortage of news already. We know that the Bucks will be without Jrue Holiday for a bit, due to health protocols. That’s going to open up some different avenues, and players like Chris Paul are still questionable. There’s going to be plenty to discuss for this slate tonight int the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 and find the green screens!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 Injury Report

Raptors – OG Anunoby (Q)

Hawks – De’Andre Hunter, Rajon Rondo (O)

Nets – Kevin Durant (O)

Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (O)

Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke, De’Anthony Melton (O)

Clippers – Paul George (O), Patrick Beverly (Q)

Wolves – KAT (D), D’Angelo Russell (Q)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen, Otto Porter (O)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)

Nuggets – Gary Harris, PJ Dozier (O)

Thunder – Mike Muscala, Isaiah Roby (Q), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, George Hill (O) and Maledon (O)

Lakers – Anthony Davis (Q)

Bucks – Jrue Holiday (O)

Suns – Chris Paul, Jae Crowder (Q)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 Positions

Point Guard

Luka Doncic ($10,800 DK/$10,900 FD) – With both Milwaukee and Oklahoma City already presenting value plays, it’s not going to be much of an issue to spend on Luka. Trae Young turns the ball over the second-most in basketball (and Luka is fourth) so Luke has some steals upside. He’s been a little flighty lately but still has one of the highest ceilings on any given night. It’s a great spot spot for Luka and he just put up 64 DK on Young and the Hawks about a week ago. We attack Young’s defense often, we may as well do it with one of the NBA’s best.

Kyle Lowry ($7,300 DK/$7,600 FD) – The mid-range here is pretty loaded. I want to go with LaMelo Ball to some extent, since he’s a threat to triple-double every night. Going against Ja Morant is a recipe for success as well. Still, when Lowry is going to see 35 minutes against the Wizards for a cheaper price, it’s hard to turn away from that. The veteran for the Raptors is in the top 25 in steals per game and Russell Westbrook is first in turnovers. That’s a great mix as is the 21.8% usage rate. Bottom line is we want some type of Raptors love in the lineup tonight, and the salary is super reasonable for Lowry.

Tomas Satoransky ($4,400 DK/$4,000) – We have another punt special in Satoransky. The Pelicans have been playing fast lately, and are on a back to back with travel tonight. Sato has gotten more reliable minutes lately with the injuries the Bulls are dealing with. In this scenario, he only has a 13.6% usage rate but the 31.9% assist rate is the best on the team. The 1.23 FPPM shows he can fill up the stat sheet and can flirt with 30 DK here.

Honorable Mention – Trae Young, Russell Westbrook (DK price is SILLY), Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier, Hamidou Diallo (easier to play on DK)

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,400 DK/$10,600 FD) – The Nets postgame was already talking about Kyrie potentially sitting in this game, and Brian mentioned his shot was wonky last night. He actually shot left-handed. Not great, Bob! The Nets have the long-term on their minds, so I suspect it’s the Harden show tonight. Harden has played about a 120 minute sample without the other two bug guns and rocks about a 30% usage and a 1.58 FPPM. There’s not much else to say other than that. Malcolm Brogdon is a great defender, but nothing I worry about against the Beard. My cash at the high-end will likely start with Harden and a certain power forward in this game.

Devin Booker ($8,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – I’m going to be clear that I’d only play Booker IF CP3 IS OUT. If that happens, we get Point Booker and we just saw how that goes. When Paul is off the floor, Booker spikes to a 32.9% usage rate and a 1.20 FPPM and the price isn’t high enough. The pace is a huge jump for the Suns, who sit 27th in the league right now. The Bucks are playing at a top 10 rate and bonus city for Booker – there’s no Jrue Holiday on the other side. If CP3 is in, I’m likely to just go down the salary levels here.

Bryn Forbes ($3,800 DK/$4,200 FD) – With Jrue out, Forbes drew the start for the Bucks and did just fine for DFS with 15 real points and 23.8 DK. He’s still under $4,000 on DK, so expect him to be popular and I’m rolling right with that. He played 25 minutes and without Holiday, Forbes has a 0.73 FPPM and a 20% usage. That’s plenty at this salary range.

We should also strongly consider Bruce Brown here if Kyrie sits. Ghost pointed out that Brown normally is a much better play if they need a ball handler. That’s exactly what they would need if Kyrie sits, so we have plenty of value options at this position tonight. That makes it easy to plug and play Harden.

Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Fred VanVleet, Zach LaVine, Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo (could be a better play than Forbes on FD, I’ll be interested to see what the model says)

Small Forward

Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK) – I’m not writing up the FD price because it is astronomical, and I can’t get there on that site. Washington is 27th in paint points allowed and it’s tough to see a route that Siakam is guarded well tonight. He’s got the team lead in usage rate at 25.4% and Siakam is right at five paint touches per game. I look at this one sort of like when they just played the Nets. Spicy P poured in 33 real points and the Raptors kept feeding him, because the Nets really couldn’t stop him. I don’t expect the Wizards to be able to either, and they play at a top-five pace.

Khris Middleton ($7,700 DK/$7,600 FD) – I feel like Middleton is borderline locked for me on FD. He and Giannis both sport an assist rate over 34% when Holiday is off the floor. That’s helping lead him to a massive 1.53 FPPM and for perspective, Giannis is at a 1.65 mark. That’s really not that big of a gap and Middleton had a huge game without Holiday just last time out. The price hasn’t moved enough yet since he’s under $8,000 on both sites. On DK, you could start with Harden, Forbes, Middleton, Isaiah Roby and the PF we haven’t got to yet and still have $5,200 left per player.

Justin Holiday ($5,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – I would think Holiday is going to be FD only, but I’m undecided on that. The Nets will play slower if Kyrie is out, because it will be a lot of Harden ISO plays but they’ll still be in the upper half of the league. There’s not getting around there’s not much special here for Holiday in general. The FPPM is 0.78 and the usage is 13.7%. Why are we looking here? Simple – the Nets are a bottom five defense in the league and Holiday plays a boatload of minutes. If we’re looking at Middleton, a value option makes sense on FD especially.

Danilo Gallinari ($4,500 DK/$3,800 FD) – Over on FD, Gallo really stands out as a value. He’s back to playing 25 minutes and that just might be enough for near minimum price. The Mavericks are allowing a 41.5% three point attempt frequency and that fits what we need for Gallo. He only has a 0.74 FPPM with the Hawks in the scenario they are in tonight. Still, at the price and with the Dallas matchup I am interested.

Honorable Mention – LeBron James (man is on a mission right now), Kawhi Leonard (no PG but competitiveness of the game is iffy), Mikal Bridges (if no CP3), Joe Harris (if no Kyrie)

Power Forward

Domantas Sabonis ($8,600 DK/$9,300 FD) – There’s really just two things I want to hit on here. First, lock him on DK cash without even a second thought. Seriously. Stop reading, go to DK and put Sabonis at the PF spot in your cash lineup. I’ll wait.

OK, cool, you’re back. Secondly, we say that we (myself, Ghost and Brian) don’t really talk about a slate before the articles are out. I don’t need to talk to these guys to know we’re hammering Sabonis across the board. He’s a triple-double threat tonight and has the fifth-most paint touches in the league, along with the fifth-most points. ALL. IN. This is one of the easiest plays on the board and this is the PF that I said we can pair up with the four other players to have $5,200 leftover.

Zion Williamson ($8,100 DK/$8,400 FD) – Zion was held back a little bit by foul trouble last night but he posted 38 FD in just 20 minutes. That actually should help us tonight, as we should expect full run for the second-year stud. Zion is averaging over eight points in the paint on the season and Chicago is 15th in defending that. We always target the front court for the Bulls and that’s where they are thinnest right now. I may not be able to consider Zion over Sabonis, but you could certainly play both if that’s the route you want.

Isaiah Roby ($3,700 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m not going to be a huge fan of the matchup if Anthony Davis plays, but he’s simply too cheap and I would guess is super chalk on DK. Roby has missed a couple games but the last we saw him he was logging 33 minutes. The 0.95 FPPM is solid, especially at this price tag. I want to see what projections say, but the mix of minutes and price are hard to ignore right now.

Honorable Mention – Darius Bazley, Chris Boucher (look to the model), Frank Kaminsky (if Suns are still out)

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,100 FD) – Do we need to spend all the way up? Maybe not, but that doesn’t change the fact the Joker is just a fantasy monster and is the only player on the slate who averages 60 DK. Cleveland is actually not an easy matchup on paper as they are eighth in paint points but they are 25th in rebounding. Not that it’s a major factor, but the last time Jokic saw Andre Drummond he dropped 82 DK points in 40 minutes of play. That’s obviously the ceiling, but Jokic is always one of the safest bets for cash.

Deandre Ayton ($7,100 DK/$7,700 FD) – Whenever he’s under $8,000, we should pay attention. Ayton should really be able to hit the glass in this one, considering that Brook Lopez only averages 5.1 per game. Meanwhile, Ayton is sitting over 18 rebounding chances per game and sees a usage bump of about 1.5% when CP3 is off the floor. A 15/15 game with a couple blocks is certainly not out of the question here though he’s not my favorite tonight.

Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 DK/$7,200 FD) – My Name is Jonas!! Just a quick reminder that the Blue Album from Weezer is the goat. Anyways, it’s been a hot minute since JoVal has been in the cash article. We’re not just chasing the ceiling game against the Raptors, we’re chasing the fact that he played 33 minutes. JoVal scores almost eight points per game in the paint, and Charlotte is 29th in defending that. Also, they’re only 15th in rebounding and Valanciunas is seventh in rebounding chances per game. This is a total smash spot at a reasonable price. The 1.39 FPPM is the highest on the team but a good bit, with Kyle Anderson being second at 1.17. I love him tonight and he’s likely my C of choice on FD and maybe DK, but I can use Sabonis there if needed.

Honorable Mention – Clint Capela, Myles Turner (might be more GPP but double big man against the Nets seems awfully fun and he’s very cheap on DK), Naz Reid, Trez Harrell if AD is out

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/10 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9

We’re back with another seven game slate tonight and we already have a big name player out in Kevin Durant. What’s going to be interesting there is the Nets play the Pistons, and there could be some concern with blowout there. There’s also plenty of other options at the high-end of salary, so let’s dig in for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 and figure out what paths we need for green!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 Injury Report

Nets – Kevin Durant (O)

Pistons – Wayne Ellington, Delon Wright (O)

Heat – Goran Dragic (O)

Rockets – Christian Wood, Victor Oladipo (O)

Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O)

Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O)

Magic – Aaron Gordon, Evan Fournier (O)

Blazers – CJ McCollum, Jusuf Nurkic (O)

Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q), Marcus Smart (O)

Jazz – Mike Conley (O)

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 Postions

Point Guard

Damian Lillard ($10,000 DK/$9,800 FD) – You can argue you don’t need to spend on Dame Time on DK, but FD he is severely mis-priced. Lillard was supposed to be one a minutes limit over the weekend and played 38 minutes, dropping 55 FD points. He’s not on the injury report now and should be ready to toll for his normal 36-40 minute workload. Lest we forget what he looks like without McCollum and Nurkic, Dame rocks a 31.4% usage rate and a 1.41 FPPM. Dame drives about 15 times per game and Orlando is just mid-pack in points allowed in the paint.

John Wall ($7,300 DK/$7,700 FD) – This is what I wrote about Wall just yesterday –

Wall played 32 minutes last game out for the first time since his injury, and that has my attention. Across 139 minutes with Christian Wood off the floor, Wall is leading the team with a monster 36.4% usage and his 1.25 FPPM is behind on DeMarcus Cousins. Since the James Harden trade, Houston leads the league in pace and New Orleans is 10th. I was honestly surprised at Wall looks like with Wood off, and if he’s playing 32-34 minutes this is a dynamite spot.

Now, let’s take Dipo off the floor since we know he’s out. Wall carries about the same usage and FPPM, and that’s only across 90 minutes. I would suspect him to be quite chalky against the Lonzo/Eric Bledsoe backcourt.

Kendrick Nunn ($5,600 DK/$5,000 FD) – It’s kind of the same deal with Nunn that it was the last time. He fits, and he’s palatable for 31 minutes of court time but I can’t say I love him. He’s very scoring dependent but with Dragic out, we can at least count on the minutes. Even the usage doesn’t look too shabby with a 24.4% rate, but the 0.89 FPPM isn’t special. I have a felling we’ll get other value to open up through the day.

Honorable Mention – Kyrie, Steph, Dejounte Murray

Shooting Guard

James Harden ($10,900 DK/$11,000 FD) – I get we’re worried about the blowout, but just look at last night. The Thunder were double-digit dogs, and carried a good game throughout. LeBron James went off as well, even though the Lakers couldn’t pull away early. This could be the same situation for Harden. Sure, Detroit should get straight housed. If they do, Harden has a 1.44 FPPM and 25.7% usage rate with Durant off the court. Even with Kyrie probable, Harden can put up a crooked number in three quarters without KD. The Pistons allow the third-highest field goal percentage from deep on top of everything else.

Jordan Clarkson ($6,000 DK/$5,000 FD) – Let’s go right back to the well, shall we? Clarkson let us down last game but it’s not hard to see why. He shot 7-19 from the field and 3-10 from deep. Even with that, Clarkson scored 17 points and hit 25 DK. A better shooting day easily brings him around 6x return and he played an extra five minutes above his season average. I will be very interested to see how the field reacts from last game. I’m still willing, but we could wind up leaving him off the lineup if the field doesn’t go here.

Sterling Brown ($3,200 DK/$3,800 FD) – Brown pushed 35% in cash yesterday and paid off. Now that he’s cheaper, we’re probably going to see the field flock to hm and I can’t really argue. The Rockets are in more or less the same spot, and need ball handlers past John Wall. Brown sports a 0.82 FPPM and the only factor that could change is Eric Gordon. If he plays, that does change the calculus and we could likely just pivot to Bruce Brown from the Nets.

Honorable Mention – DeMar DeRozan (better fit on DK), Tyrese Haliburton (price is getting up there)

Small Forward

Tobias Harris ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – Harris is now PF only on DK, which is a small annoyance. Still, this is a great spot and we just saw that guys like Ben Simmons and Harris can have big games even with Joel Embiid playing. Harris only took 16 shots but has really been hitting the glass the past couple games with 23 total rebounds. The Kings are just 20th in rebounding and Harris has a 24% usage rate on the season in total. If paying up for Biid left a bad taste in your mouth last time, you could just roll out a player like Tobias to get exposure against the Kings. That’s something we always want.

Jerami Grant ($7,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – I haven’t been paying the price for Grant lately, and this isn’t just chasing the big game. This is going against the Nets, who sit seventh in pace since the Harden trade and 29th in defensive rating. Derrick Rose is out the door and Grant has a 26.8% usage and a 1.11 FPPM in that scenario. That’s solid as it is, but the game environment makes it even better. Now kick in that Gran is third in the NBA in minutes and it’s not hard to see him going off in this spot.

Joe Ingles ($5,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – Ingles is almost a carbon copy of Clarkson tonight. He looks somewhat pricey on DK, much better on FD and he’s coming off a terrible effort last game. In addition, he followed Clarkson’s lead with shooting and went 3-10 and 1-6 from deep. I won’t bank on that again, nor would I think he only gets three assists. Ingles was on the floor for 31 minutes last game and should be in line for the same tonight. Short memories in NBA!

Honorable Mention – RJ Barrett, Harrison Barnes

Power Forward

Jayson Tatum ($9,200 DK/$9,400 FD) – I would back off if Jaylen Brown played, but Tatum has to be the Celtics offense right now. Kemba Walker is working his way back from injury and is flighty. Tatum sits at a 34.2% usage rate with Smart and Brown off the floor so far, and that’s across 222 minutes. It’s not my favorite play, but let’s look at FD for PF.

The duo of Bam Adebayo and Julius Randle are very interesting. They just squared off and both went for over 45 FD points. Miami is 30th in rebounding so Randle can excel in that aspect of the game, and he just flirted with a triple-double even with Bam defending. They should both get 34 minutes or more and Bam has a 1.26 FPPM on the season. At least early, it looks like paying up at PF is the route to take. The value is non-existent but it’s also NBA, so something should pop up. We have a lot more flexibility on DK, so I’m not as worried.

Center

Nikola Vucevic ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – I’m guessing that Vuc will be super chalk again, since he’s still under $9,000. Looking further into it, he gets the Enes Kanter defense so that’s a win for Vuc. With both Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier out, Vucevic is rocking a massive 35% usage and 1.47 FPPM. That’s not far off the Nikola Jokic mark of 30.4% and 1.61. We routinely pay five digits for Joker, so Vuc is a massive bargain and I will continue to hammer it. He should shoot at least 20 times and I don’t see why the field won’t play him tonight.

Mason Plumlee ($5,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – Is it a slate with the Nets on it if the opposing center isn’t written up? I’m more likely to use PlumDawg on DK, since I can play two centers. I believe I’ll have other priorities on FD but Plumlee is in that familiar smash spot. Brooklyn continues to get worked in the paint as they are dead last in paint points allowed. Plumlee is 12th in paint touches on the season and the Nets just cannot defend centers right now. Plum has a 1.04 FPPM and is on double-double alert here in my eyes.

Jakob Poeltl ($6,000 DK/$5,500 FD) – I’m swiping my writeup for Poeltl from yesterday. He ended with an big double-double against these same Warriors, good for 38+ fantasy points on each site.

This is really a glorious spot for Poeltl. He only put up 18 DK last game but that was without hitting a shot. He legit went 0-6 from the field. I will grant that Draymond Green has been playing some inspired basketball, but Golden State is still 23rd in rebounding and 19th in paint points allowed. All Poeltl does is sit in the paint, with 7.4 touches as a mostly backup player. When we target a limited backup like Poeltl, we have to pick the spot carefully. Even with Green lurking, this seems like the spot to do it.

Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/9 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8

We’re still almost 24 hours from the slate but we already have a massive question mark that is a slate-changer. Typically, Russell Westbrook sits on a back to back for the Wizards. However, coach Scott Brooks says he might be available tonight against the Bulls. If he’s out, we all know to lock in Bradley Beal. It’s very interesting to see if Westbrook plays and it’s a huge puzzle piece. We’ll talk about this scenario and many others in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 to find the paths to green screens once again!

What We Look For In Cash Formats 

1. High Floor – We need players we can trust to get us to a certain value almost no matter what. If they have a poor shooting night, they can still do enough other things to score 4-5x. 
2. Chalkiness – We need players who are going to be highly rostered. If a player is 70% or higher and they go off without you, that’s likely the end of your night. 
3. Positional Strength – Especially on FanDuel, sometimes a position is going to be very thin and needs prioritized. 
4. Ghost’s Model – This model needs to be the Bible as far as projections. My article will mostly be written the night before. I’m telling you this up front – Trust. The. Model. We can’t always update the articles and it won’t lead us astray. If it’s on a player that isn’t mentioned in mine, trust it and don’t hesitate to ask if a player is popping that you’re not sure why. 
5. Late News – Another very important aspect to stress – do not play a slate if you can’t update close to tip. The NBA changes in an instant. One piece of news can change everything.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 Injury Report

Rockets – Christian Wood (O)

Hornets – Devonte’ Graham (Q)

Wizards – Russell Westbrook (Q)

Bulls – Lauri Markkanen (D), Otto Porter, Wendell Carter (O)

Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)

Grizzlies – Brandon Clarke, Jaren Jackson, De’Anthony Melton (O)

Grizzlies – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q)

Warriors – James Wiseman, Kevan Looney (O), Eric Paschall (Q)

Spurs – LaMarcus Aldridge (O), Lonnie Walker (O)

Cavaliers – Larry Nance (O)

Suns – Jae Crowder, Cameron Payne, Abdel Nader (Q)

Nuggets – Jamal Murray (Q), PJ Dozier, Gary Harris (O)

Thunder – Theo Maledon, Mike Muscala, George Hill, Isaiah Roby (O)

*Note* I’m just going to address the Thunder situation here. They will be down to about 7-8 players that are typically in the rotation, so there is value to be had here. I understand the matchup is horrific, but the minutes will be there regardless. The issue right now is we have virtually no sample with these players out. With all these guys off, Kenrich Williams has the most minutes…at 22. I would suspect we’ll need to play 2-3 Thunder tonight. The projected ownership will guide me but we’ll be looking at Horford, Diallo, Dort, Williams and maybe SGA. I tend to doubt SGA though since he’s not a value. Look for an update during the day.

NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8 Positions

Point Guard

Jrue Holiday ($7,700 DK/$8,200 FD) – This game is going to be a blast and we should want some type of exposure to it. Holiday could be an interesting way to get it. Of course, Steph and Luka can be played but they are both at a high premium after they went off Saturday. Holiday leads the league in steals, and Denver is about mid-pack in turnovers per game. He’s also sporting a 1.09 FPPM on just a 19.8% usage rate and is doing plenty across the box score. Holiday is only averaging 16.4 points, but almost five boards and over five dimes per game. Milwaukee is top 10 in pace and Denver is bottom 10 in defensive rating. If you can’t afford the big-name studs, take a look at Holiday.

John Wall ($7,400 DK/$7,400 FD) – Wall played 32 minutes last game out for the first time since his injury, and that has my attention. Across 139 minutes with Christian Wood off the floor, Wall is leading the team with a monster 36.4% usage and his 1.25 FPPM is behind on DeMarcus Cousins. Since the James Harden trade, Houston leads the league in pace and Charlotte is 13th. They are on a back to back and I wouldn’t think the defense will improve. I was honestly surprised at Wall looks like with Wood off, and if he’s playing 32-34 minutes this is a dynamite spot.

The value play will need to be decided during the day, and we have some candidates. If Westbrook plays, I love him and the DK price point is just disrespectful. The flip side is if he sits, Ish Smith enters the fray as a starter. Jamal Murray of the Nuggets missed Sunday and is questionable. My hunch would say he plays this one, but Monte Morris is going to play 32+ minutes if he doesn’t. Denver is a little short on guards. Lastly, I want to pick Ghost’s brain and the model on Tomas Satoransky. He’s started to play more minutes, and overlapping with Coby White. I’m not 100% if we can trust him, but if we can he’s so cheap.

Honorable Mention – Terry Rozier, Derrick White if we get no value

Shooting Guard

Zach LaVine ($8,900 DK/$8,800 FD) – Alright, now we can talk about one of my favorite games on the slate. On FD, I feel like he’s a total lock. These are the top three in pace, bottom four in points allowed, and bottom six in defensive ratings. In the scenario the Bulls can be facing with missing bodies (120 minutes), LaVine has a massive 36.4% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM. We’re putting that against a bottom-five defense in basketball? In a game that should be played at warp speed?? Just give me all of him. On DK, the LaVine/Bradley Beal and potentially Westbrook stack would still leave you $4,700. I feel like this or the Denver game is the Brian Tulloch special on Monday, not to steal his thunder. Beal at $9,000 on DK is in play regardless of Westbrook’s status. FD I would only consider him if Westy is out, and even then let’s just play LaVine in cash for $2,000 less.

DeMar DeRozan ($7,700 DK/$8,100 FD) – I think we could see a big gap in projected ownership depending on which site you play. On FD, the price feels just a hair high but on DK, he’s still under $8,000. Look, I don’t like playing DDR. I’ll be honest about that and in GPP, I’m almost always going to fade him. Even I have to admit that this spot is incredible. The Warriors play so fast and he’s going to have so many chances to produce. With Draymond having to play center, he’s not going to be man up to him very often I don’t think. We do have to point out that DDR is fourth in drives per game at 19.2 per game but he has the third-most passes from drives. Regardless, the 28.5% usage is 4.9% higher without LMA and he’s probably going to be somewhat popular.

Anthony Edwards ($5,800 FD) – This is a FD only play because we need two. This position is tough at first glance for that site. They moved Diallo to PG, which does NOT help. Maybe we’ll get some value during the day that we like. If not, Edwards is likely to be my solution if I don’t spend up on both spots. There is still some inconsistency, which is not really a cash game prototype. The minutes are still trending up and seemingly have settled in the 30-32 minute range. The shot hasn’t helped him yet with KAT off the floor at a 47.6% true shooting rate. The 26% usage looks great as it is, and it jumps up to 30% if D’Angelo Russell happens to sit.

Honorable Mention – D’Lo (if active), Norman Powell

Small Forward

LeBron James ($10,500 DK/$10,800 FD) – I’m not in love with the price on the surface, but let’s talk about this. First, I think there’s a legitimate chance Anthony Davis actually does sit. The Thunder are super thin, and this game is a 13 point spread early. If AD sits, the Los Angeles LeBron’s will likely still blow them out. However, we’d have a much higher chance of Bron being the focal point of blowing the Thunder out of the gym. With Davis off the floor, he’s got a 34.3% usage and a 1.47 FPPM. I tend to think that when LeBron criticizes the league for the All-Star game, he’s looking to out his best game on the floor. As a game theory, it makes some sense to play a Laker with multiple Thunder players for the late-night hammer as well.

Juan Toscano-Anderson ($4,500 DK/$5,300 FD) – If you don’t want to wade into playing Dray with his price bump, JTA may well be the solution. Much like Green, JAT only scored two real points last game but still went over 20 fantasy points. It’s tough to overlook players like that while they remain super cheap. The metrics aren’t all that great with a FPPM under 0.80 but he’s now played 33, 39, and 26 minutes since Kevan Looney was hurt on the 2nd. JTA is just a guy that smoothly fits into any lineup, and with the Spurs playing at a top 10 pace as well, has the opportunity to fall into stats.

Denzel Valentine ($4,800 DK/$4,500 FD) – The Bulls guard is only SG eligible on DK but man does he look nice on both sites. He’s gone from 20, 20, and 37 minutes the past three games as the Bulls have gotten thinner through the ranks. Valentine has some scoring touch and sports a 1.04 FPPM in the scenario the Bulls find themselves in. I would suspect the model likes him again, and I will just say this – Wizards and warp speed ahead!

Honorable Mention – Khris Middleton, Michael Porter (if Murray is out), Will Barton (gross, honestly)

Power Forward

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 DK/$11,300 FD) – Giannis is in quite the spot here. Firstly, this is the marquee game of the night as far as real basketball. I can’t wait to watch it. Who really is going to try and guard greek tonight? Old Man Paul Millsap? Sure, good luck with that. Another interesting factor is Giannis is third in free throws attempted per game. We know that as much as I love Nikola Jokic, he can run into foul trouble here and there. It doesn’t always happen, but it can. If the Bucks can get Jokic off the floor, Giannis might go absolutely hog wild. I’m not loving the idea of paying all the way up with so many good plays in the Washington game, but I may do it on FD.

Patrick Williams ($5,100 DK/$4,500 FD) – The rookie is a massive bargain on FD and still very fairly priced on DK. We were on him last game, and he paid off in spades. The metrics aren’t super special with a 21% usage and a 0.99 FPPM. Still, the minutes are what makes him a solid play since he’s played 33, 33 and 32 minutes the past three games. He recorded his first career double-double last game and that was against the Magic. The Wizards are a much better matchup and when a player is this cheap for 32 minutes against the Wizards, I’m in.

We’re going to be looking for clarity in this position as well. For instance, if Davis sits for the Lakers, we’re going to look for Kyle Kuzma in a big way. He should draw the start and would be hard to overlook at that point. Maybe we could finally look at Chris Boucher in cash, as he’s played 32 and 26 minutes the past two games. Let’s see how the day unfolds and we’ll update it as we go.

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,100 DK/$11,600 FD) – I don’t see the reason to pay up if Jamal Murray plays, but my goodness if he doesn’t….Joker is the whole show (to politely paraphrase Rob Van Dam from ECW). With Murray off the floor, Jokic has a 35.1% usage and a 1.72 FPPM. Taking it one step further and knocking off Gary Harris and PJ Dozier is even scarier. It’s a grain of salt type thing as the sample is about 57 minutes, but Joker is at a 40% usage and a 2.05 FPPM. Brook Lopez is a poor rebounder for a center, and we get Joker in pace up spot with the Bucks sitting top 10. If Murray is out, this isn’t just chasing the 88 DK Joker just posted yesterday. He could be my favorite play for the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/8, but we’ll see.

DeMarcus Cousins ($7,100 DK/$6,000 FD) – On FD, Boogie seems like the smash play at a ridiculous price point. When Wood plays, he has almost seven paint touches per game and Cousins will likely stick somewhat close to that. The Hornets are also just 16th in rebounding and like I mentioned earlier, a 1.33 FPPM is excellent at this price point. With the Hornets being 29th in pant points allowed, this is just too good of a spot. I’m not as locked in on DK, but certainly won’t tell you it’s a terrible play there either.

Jakob Poeltl ($5,900 DK/$5,800 FD) – This is really a glorious spot for Poeltl. He only put up 18 DK last game but that was without hitting a shot. He legit went 0-6 from the field. I will grant that Draymond Green has been playing some inspired basketball, but Golden State is still 23rd in rebounding and 19th in paint points allowed. All Poeltl does is sit in the paint, with 7.4 touches as a mostly backup player. When we target a limited backup like Poeltl, we have to pick the spot carefully. Even with Green lurking, this seems like the spot to do it.

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