The NBA decided to get a quick set of games in before the NFL takes over the day and there’s already one player that will be total chalk. Kawhi Leonard I would suspect is going to be the most popular player with Paul George already ruled out. We’ll get into that and more in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/7 to find the right routes for the green screens!
Jazz – Mike Conley (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (O), Jimmy Butler (Q)
Hornets – P.J. Washington (Q), Devonte’ Graham (O)
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (O), Marcus Smart (O)
Suns – Jaw Crowder, Abdel Nader (Q), Cameron Payne (O)
Clippers – Patrick Beverly, Paul George (O)
LaMelo Ball ($7,800 DK/$7,800 FD) – I would normally preach caution with Ball coming off nearly 60 fantasy points. The Wizards matchup changes that, as does the fact we already know Graham is out for this one. With Graham and Washington off the floor this season, Ball has a 1.22 FPPM and a 23.9% usage rate. The Wizards love running the floor with the fastest pace in the league and this is just the juiciest spot possible for Ball to flirt with a triple-double.
Kemba Walker ($6,800 DK/$5,700 FD) – I won’t get there on DK but FD is a different story. Walker racked up 35 DK last time after a horrific start shooting the ball, which is encouraging. Even more important was he played 32 minutes, which he needs to justify the DK price (sort of). FD is much easier to play him since he has a 1.40 FPPM and a 37.9% usage rate with Smart and Brown off the floor. Kemba is the Robin to Jayson Tatum’s Batman right now for the Celts and the FD price just isn’t high enough. You can also consider punting Carsen Edwards, especially on DK. He played 30 minutes last game and was excellent offensively.
Kendrick Nunn ($5,800 DK/$5,000 FD) – I would suspect Nunn gets the start in place of Dragic, but that’s not 100% yet. He played 31 minutes last game and poured in the points with 20+. Nunn can be a flighty player, and he’s one that we normally avoid in cash. Still, he does have a 25.2% usage rate with Dragic off the floor. That’s enough to be considered on FD, but I do want to find $700 for Kemba without a doubt.
Honorable Mention – De’Aaron Fox, Malcolm Brogdon, Terry Rozier
Tyrese Haliburton ($6,200 DK/$6,000 FD) – The Kings just can’t keep the talented rookie off the floor right now. He played a season-high 35 minutes last game and scored 23 points, along with 10 total rebounds and assists. That marked the seventh straight game Haliburton has played at least 30 minutes, and he’s not scored below 27 FD points but just once. He’s a well rounded player and the 0.96 FPPM looks excellent when you consider he’s just at a 16.3% usage.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,700 DK/$5,000 FD) – The stone chalk on FD I suspect and probably DK as well. Mike Conley is out and Clarkson is sitting at a 25% usage rate when he’s off the floor. Clarkson doesn’t move a ton in usage or FPPM, and I wouldn’t expect him to start. However, there’s just more opportunities within the offense with Conley isn’t there. I would also suspect that Indy could try and use Malcolm Brogdon on Donovan Mitchell when they can. If that’s the case, Clarkson could really go off and I want to be a part of that. I really think this combo turns into the most popular on FD and Clarkson is the guy for DK. It’s a pretty gross position overall, unless you spend up (and right now I don’t see the reason to do so).
Honorable Mention – Bradley Beal, Tyler Herro (if Dragic is out)
Kawhi Leonard ($9,100 DK/$9,900 FD) – Just go ahead and start the builds with the Klaw today. Not only is PG out so Kawhi has a 31.6% usage and a 1.45 FPPM, but the matchup is incredible. Sacramento is right next to the Wizards in pace and defensive rating, which is to say they play fast and don’t defend. Kawhi is going to excel in this type of game, and it should stay close. I mean, they blew nearly a 20-point lead last game so I’m not worried on that end. The salary isn’t even that much to ask on either site to put the cherry on top.
Gordon Hayward ($8,000 DK/$7,600 FD) – This is tough on FD. I REALLY want to play the Hayward/Ball duo, but we have one player that will likely be chalk further down that we should eat. Hayward has had a couple average games but last time he perked up with 49 DK. The matchup gets even better against the Wizards and Hayward is the only starter with a positive correlation with Ball. Hayward plays so, so many minutes and if he gets 36-40 against Washington, he could touch 50-60 DK.
Joe Ingles ($5,300 DK/$4,500 FD) – This is the chalk we need to get to on FD, but DK we could run everything together with Kawhi/Hayward/Ingles/Clarkson. We would need some value but we all know that happens.
Ingles has always entered the starting lineup when Conley is out, and it makes perfect sense. He’s a much better ball distributor than Clarkson, and that’s what the offense needs most with Conley off the floor. Mitchell and Clarkson handle the scoring, Ingles runs the offense as a whole. The 29.9% assist rate leads the team in the scenario the Jazz are in tonight and he’s just too cheap for the role he’ll have. As a side note, I’m interested in his assist prop as long as it’s not above 5.5. Let’s get it.
Honorable Mention – Miles Bridges (if Washington is out)
Jayson Tatum ($9,400 DK/$10,200 FD) – The FD price is likely out of my range but I’m still very interested on DK. He might be a tough squeeze since we’re playing Kawhi and I really love LaMelo, but Tatum shouldn’t be overlooked. He’s been a monster with a 34.7% usage and a 1.41 FPPM. Even Kawhi couldn’t stop him from scoring 30+ real points last game. The Suns are a slow pace team just like the Clippers, but Tatum just proved that doesn’t matter at this point. I will say that playing the Clarkson/Ingles duo on FD makes Tatum a good bit more in my range.
Nic Batum ($5,100 DK/$5,200 FD) – It’s not going to work on FD by the looks of it, because I don’t want to eat both SF spots. I really am looking to this LaMelo/Hayward stack but will likely go Kawhi/Ingles. DK makes it a lot easier with more flexibility and the Clips rode Batum last game with no PG, playing him a massive 39 minutes. True to Batum’s normal, he didn’t do anything spectacular but grinded his way to about 30 fantasy points. Given the elite matchup, that could inch towards 40 if he gets the same amount of minutes and he’s a very palatable price.
Honorable Mention – Daniel Theis (provided he’s not on the injury report), Frank Kaminsky (if starting)
Deandre Ayton ($6,800 DK/$8,300 FD) – I think he’s too much on FD, but the spot is quietly pretty awesome. The Celtics are 16th in rebounding and Ayton is eighth in rebounding chances. Likewise, Boston sits in the bottom five in paint points allowed and Ayton is second to only Rudy Gobert with 10.1 paint points per game. Flat out, the Celtics have big men in Theis and Tristan Thompson but not a lot to hang with Ayton. My fear is CP3 and Booker are both in. Ayton has had some flops with everyone active, which is why I’m probably just going to my next player.
Cody Zeller ($6,000 DK/$5,800 FD) – Zeller will be my bet to be the lock button on FD, and he’ll be popular on DK. I mean, that’s what happens when Washington is on the other side. Even though he’s only played 10 games, Zeller sports 6.4 paint touches per game and scores 4.5 five points. Washington is bottom-five in paint points allowed and 25th in rebounding. This is a great spot for Zeller, who has been playing 30 minutes a night more often than not. Also, on DK don’t overlook Alex Len. He’s had two games of 24 and 27 minutes the past two. Len is only $4,000 and you could rock Zeller and Len for $10,000. I’d love to see what the model thinks as well.
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/7 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
We are back with another nine game slate in the association tonight, and where would we be without Ghost and the model? Three of the top six last night were Kent Bazemore, Juan Toscano-Anderson and Tyrese Maxey. We talked about those three on the stream and these three cost a combined $10,000. They scored a massive 83.2 DK points, good for an 8x return. The studs were tougher last night, but in the long run nailing that style of value will carry you to the promised land a lot of nights. Let’s get to this big slate and figure out the base work for it in the NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 to find the green!
Bulls – Otto Porter (O)
Magic – Aaron Gordon (O)
Raptors – OG Anunoby (O)
Cavaliers – Collin Sexton (Q), Larry Nance (O)
Hornets – Terry Rozier (Q), P.J. Washington (O)
Heat – Goran Dragic (Q)
Wolves – KAT (O), D’Angelo Russell (Q), Naz Reid (Q)
Thunder – SGA, Lu Dort, George Hill (O)
Suns – Jae Crowder (Q)
Celtics – Jaylen Brown (Q), Payton Pritchard (Q), Marcus Smart (O)
Clippers – Patrick Beverly (O)
Malcom Brogdon ($8,000 DK/$7,800 FD) – It’s hard not to love Brogdon here. He’s got a 28.1% usage rate and a 1.14 FPPM on the season, and gets a major pace-up spot with the fast running Pelicans. Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe can’t defend him, and the Pelicans are 22nd in turnovers per game. Brogdon is eighth in steals per game which isn’t something we want to totally lean on, but it doesn’t hurt either. Considering he’s been a little quiet lately, the price has come down to a very appealing point. This doesn’t look like a position to spend on, so Brogdon carries a lot of safety and upside mixed in.
Kemba Walker ($6,500 DK/$5,700 FD) – Kemba could be very popular on FD, where he’s under $6,000. Here’s what is interesting – IF Jaylen Brown is out, Walker could be a massive bargain. Across the 43 minutes he’s played without Brown on the floor, Kemba has a 43.6% usage rate and a 1.53 FPPM. Taking Smart off the floor leaves Kemba with a 33 minute sample and a 1.68 FPPM. Even if Brown plays, Kemba is back up to 30 minutes a night and should see mostly Reggie Jackson defense. That’s a win for Kemba, especially if Jayson Tatum is facing Kawhi Leonard.
Theo Maledon ($5,000 DK/$4,800 FD) – Maledon will likely be one of the chalkiest plays on this slate after last time out. Not only are the Thunder still down players, Maledon played well with 28 DK across 35 minutes. That was with going 2-12 from the field, and now he gets a pace up spot against the Wolves and their eighth-fastest pace. Minnesota matches that with the 24th defensive rating, a perfect mix to pour in some points. Maledon has over 200 minutes without the players OKC is missing tonight, and rocks a 0.82 FPPM with just a 46.7% true shooting rate. Plug and play in cash.
Honorable Mention – Kyle Lowry, Cole Anthony
Donovan Mitchell ($7,700 DK/$7,800 FD) – This is a weird position tonight. James Harden and Bradley Beal are super pricey, while Fred VanVleet is priced up from the last game out. Mitchell is under $8,000 on both sites and is a safe, if not exactly spectacular option. The Hornets are giving up the third-highest three point frequency in the NBA, a nice boost for Mitchell. He’s over a 30% usage rate and even though he’s not high on my radar, he’s there nonetheless.
Norman Powell ($6,700 DK/$6,400 FD) – When we get a team as bad defensively as Brooklyn, we want some type of exposure to it. Powell is a lot cheaper than FVV, and he’s going to play a bunch of minutes. He only played 29 last game in a lopsided effort. Before that, Powell played 41, 10, 37 and 32 minutes. He has a very solid 21.1% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM and with the Nets breakneck pace, he can rack up a ton of peripheral stats here. He’s not my absolute favorite Raptor, but he’s a great fit on FD especially.
Hamidou Diallo ($5,200 DK/$5,000 FD) – I’m tempted to just write DialloSZN and move on, but we’ll give it more than that. He managed to score almost 32 DK points on just 5-9 from the field, racking up nine boards and three steals. He also had six turnovers, so there is meat on the bone at this price. Diallo played 33 minutes and the matchup is better defensively tonight too. Houston is playing great defense since trading Harden, while the Wolves wouldn’t know defense if someone hit them in the face with a picket fence. He’s far too cheap for his 1.20 FPPM in the Thunder’s situation tonight.
Honorable Mention – Zach LaVine, Paul George, Anthony Edwards
Pascal Siakam ($7,600 DK/$8,900 FD) – Now we’ve hit my favorite Raptor, at least on DK. The FD price is a bit high for my taste and I would rather just play Powell. Siakam isn’t a major player in the paint, with about five paint touches per game. He’s been tough to figure out this year but the Nets are just getting abused in the interior. I fully expect Siakam to make advantage of that and he’s scoring about 3.6 points in the paint this year. He also carries a 15.2% frequency in post ups, and the Nets are the third-worst team in points per possession on that play type. Given the pace and extra opportunity, Siakam checks in as an excellent play tonight.
Jimmy Butler ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD) – Buckets was fine last time out against Washington, if not a bit disappointing. He also took just 11 shots and still racked up 44 DK on just 19 real points. That’s a great sign, as is the 37 minutes. The other factor is the Heat need to start banking wins. They’ve had their Covid and injury issues, but they have a long road ahead to get back into the top half of the East. Butler leads the team with a 1.28 FPPM and given Washington’s pace and poor defense, he’s still a very nice fit around some of the OKC value plays.
Rui Hachimura ($5,400 DK/$5,000 FD) – Hachi is really mis-priced on FD and he’s playing a boatload of minutes lately. We’re upwards of 32 the past two games and he’s hit over 25 FD points in each game. Nothing is going to especially standout with a 19.5% usage rate and a 0.88 FPPM, but we don’t need it to at these prices. He’s back to double-digit shot attempts the past two games as well and is too cheap tonight.
Honorable Mention – Miles Bridges, Gordon Hayward
Domantas Sabonis ($8,600 DK/$8,800 FD) – Did both sites just agree to not raise up Sabonis in salary? He’s rolled up 54 FD points or more the past two games but he’s still under $9,000 on both sites. Zion Williamson has been awful defensively this season. As in, he actually got pulled off the floor on defense in a close game awful. New Orleans is 24th in paint points allowed and Sabonis is fifth in pain touches per game. This is a blow up spot for Sabonis and he only played 31 minutes last game. If he gets his full run, he’s going to destroy Zion, Steven Adams and whoever else is standing in his way.
This position is terrible tonight in my eyes. Look, surely you can play Giannis Antetokounmpo against the Cavs. We’re starting to see more consistent high-end games from Greek with 53 FD or more in five of his last six. I’d likely pass on Tatum with Kawhi on the other side, and Bam is pricey with the Heat healthy. I think the chalk on FD is Sabonis and Darius Bazley, so we could be looking at three Thunder in Maledon and Diallo as well. I don’t see the need to go four tonight, so limit yourself to three even though there is three write-ups plus Bazley. I will update this section in Discord if/when value opens up.
Nikola Vucevic ($8,500 DK/$8,800 FD) – An underpriced Vuc in a smash spot? I guess you can twist my arm to play him. Chicago plays at the second-fastest pace in the league and Vuc continues to be well under $9,000. That’s despite his 32% usage rate, his 45 and 51 DK points the past two games and the fact he shot a combined 14-37 in those games. The Bulls are in the bottom 12 in rebounding and 16th in paint points. More important is the fact they don’t have the bodies to defend Vuc all over the floor. I’d be surprised if he’s not chalky in cash again. Center is a relatively weak position tonight on top of things.
Al Horford ($6,100 DK/$6,300 FD) – He’s not the biggest paint player in the league, but this is a mismatch down low for Horford. Even if Naz Reid plays, there’s no reason to shy away here. He’s at a 1.05 FPPM and Minnesota is 18th in rebounds and 17th in paint points allowed. Houston was a much more difficult matchup for Horford with Christian Wood on the other side, so I’m not sweating the mediocre return from last game. Horford is a good threat for a double-double tonight and his price is very reasonable. We don’t really need him on FD in my eyes. I’d rank Maledon, Bazley and Diallo ahead of him.
Honorable Mention – Rudy Gobert (very cheap on DK), Deandre Ayton
Thank you for reading my NBA Cash Game Breakdown 2/5 and make sure you follow me on Twitter at @bucn4life! Be sure to sign up for an ALL ACCESS GOLD ACCOUNT account here at Win Daily Sports. Gain access to our Projection Models and jump into our Discord where we will have our experts talking plays across every sport and slate!
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