NBA GPP Picks 1/16
Man have we had some crazy basketball slates lately or what? We have had slate breaking news it seems like every night to allow us to play stars and scrubs lineups. Joel Embiid has already been ruled out along with Jimmy Butler. Other notables listed as questionable are Bam Adebayo, Tyler Herro, Goran Dragic and Gordon Hayward. With Minnesota having positive COVID tests keep an eye on Memphis as they were the most recent team to play Minnesota. Since Embiid is out our highest priced player on this four-game slate is Damian Lillard at just $9,200. For my article NBA GPP Picks 1/16 I will be using DraftKings pricing. Due to the four-game slate tonight I will just break down each game to determine my favorite plays and go through scenarios due to a plethora of questionable tags.
Pace is 1st being the fastest and Def RTG 1st is the best defense.
NBA GPP Picks 1/16
Charlotte Hornets vs Toronto Raptors
Pace: 19th Def RTG: 6th Pace: 11th Def RTG: 21st
Hornets
Gordon Hayward – ($7,800)
This Raptors match-up is one to target on this small four game slate. They have allowed the most fantasy points to both small forwards and power forwards this season. If Hayward plays he carries the highest usage average on his team at 26%. This match-up is one to drool over if Hayward suits up especially since he has the highest usage rate on his team against the Raptors vulnerable SF/PF positions.
PJ Washington – ($6,400)
I like this play if Hayward plays but I like it much more if he sits. If Hayward sits Washington see’s a 3.5% usage bump putting him at second on the team in usage at 25.6% As I mentioned the Raptors have given up the most fantasy points to power forwards as well. His lowest minute total in his last four is 31 minutes and he has scored over 40 fantasy points in three of his last four. Let’s not forget he just saw this match-up and went for over 40 fantasy points and it’s easily possible again.
Miles Bridges – ($4,500)
Clearly you see the theme here attacking the Raptors weakest spot. His minutes without Hayward have been nearing 30, even if Hayward plays he see’s around 25 minutes. Usage numbers wont be crazy for him but I want pieces of these positions. Bridges has been above 6K on DraftKings earlier this year so this is a bargain price for this dream scenario against Toronto.
Raptors
OG Anunoby – ($5,500)
He is about as consistent as it gets and I will take that for this small slate. Anunoby has scored less than 25 fantasy points in only three of the Raptors eleven games thus far. Small Forward is the position Charlotte struggles with the most giving up the sixth most fantasy points. Anunoby typically has minutes in the mid to upper 30’s along with other Raptors starters. Seeing those minutes with Hayward or Caleb Martin defense will allow Anunoby to pass off his salary with a smaller usage rate.
Chris Boucher – ($6,900)
Raptors have been searching for their big man and it looks like they found him with Boucher. He has played 25 minutes in four straight games and has yet to score under 37.5 fantasy points in those games. He just put of 48.5 fantasy points and a near 24% usage against this same Charlotte team he faces tonight. With Baynes and Len seeing minimal minutes lately at center I feel confident with Boucher and he has been a fantasy point machine given the minutes this year. His minutes are there and its time to fire up Boucher.
You can play any Raptors starters they see at least 35 minutes pretty much every night, about as tight and consistent of a rotation as it comes other than center but Boucher seems to have solidified that.
Philadelphia 76ers vs Memphis Grizzlies
Pace: 4th Def RTG: 5th Pace: 19th Def RTG: 4th
76ers
Shake Milton – ($5,200)
With Embiid already ruled out its tough to ignore the 8% usage bump Milton gets with Embiid and Curry off the floor. That brings his usage total to 30.9% without Embiid and Curry. If you exclude the first four games for Milton he has been good and consistent regardless of who plays. Curry being out we have seen Milton’s minutes much closer to 30 and above. Given the usage rate, minutes, and price, Milton should be able to smash value.
Tobias Harris – ($7,500)
Harris see’s a massive usage increase much like Milton. Harris’ increase is 7% bringing him to a 30% usage rate without Embiid and Curry. We see other bumps to Harris’ stats with a 8.6% assist rate increase and a rebounding increase. Being that Ben Simmons isn’t much of a shooter Milton and Harris will be relied on to do the heavy lifting in the scoring department. Roll out Tobias comfortably given his massive usage and roll in this offense with Embiid and Curry absent.
Dwight Howard – ($4,300)
Memphis typically plays with two bigs meaning minutes should be solidified for Howard here. Howard clearly isn’t a usage guy but contributes in his rebounding, blocks,and gets a bucket here and there. With over 30 minutes up for grabs at the center position a double-double should be the floor here for Howard assuming he gets the start. I also like Tony Bradley at stone minimum on DraftKings as a sneaky play.
Grizzlies
Dillon Brooks – ($6,500)
I don’t really like much from Memphis especially if Morant plays which I think he will. If he doesn’t though the main piece, I have from this game will be Brooks. He sees the highest usage rate on the team without Morant as he averages a usage of 29%. This is a nice pace up spot for Memphis and the 76ers have allowed the eighth most fantasy points to shooting guards this season.
Jonas Valanciunas – ($7,000)
This is the lowest price that we have seen Valanciunas other than his previous game against the Wolves. Valanciunas has a nice usage rate for a center at a season average of 24%. He has accrued a double-double in nine of his eleven games this season and now looks at a pace up spot against a team missing their starting center.
Detroit Pistons vs Miami Heat
Pace: 22nd Def RTG: 23rd Pace: 8th Def RTG: 12th
Detroit
Jerami Grant – ($7,400)
Man, I can’t believe that his price went down as solid as he has been. Grant’s lowest minute total on the season is 34 minutes. In nine straight games he has a usage of at least 25%, with four of those games being above 30% usage. Miami has given up the seventh most fantasy points to power forwards this season. Given the matchup and the pace up spot for Grant another 40-point fantast night is in sight. That shouldn’t be hard to come by for Grant as he has scored at least 42 fantasy points in four out of his last five games.
Derrick Rose – ($5,200)
Returning to the court after a couple game absence is Rose. I don’t believe he will be on a strict enough minutes restriction to where he can’t see his regular 25 minutes. In the eight games that Rose his played this season in six of those he has a usage rate above 30%. Rose leads Detroit in usage rate at an average of 30% on the season. This price is crazy low for Rose as it is the lowest price he has been on DraftKings by $600. I will take the chances in GPP’s on Rose coming back from the injury, after all it was just a week two game absence.
Miami
It all depends on who plays for Miami as the come into tonight with eight players questionable. If Herro plays he is a great option for Miami as he should take the bulk of the usage with Butler out. Adebayo is a fantastic play if he gets the green light as well. Detroit has given up the second most fantasy points to centers on the young NBA season. Check out Discord Chat rooms closer to lock when we receive who is active for Miami.
Atlanta Hawks vs Portland Trail Blazers
Pace: 11th Def RTG: 11th Pace: 14th Def RTG: 25th
Atlanta
Trae Young – ($8,900)
Young has been cold of late and went 1 for 11 last night against Utah. The plus for that is Young only played 24 minutes so this back to back shouldn’t affect them horribly. Portland has allowed the sixth most fantasy points to point guards this season. That should be a perfect recipe for a point guard like Young who dominates the ball and usage on his team. A season average of 32% usage is tops on Atlanta by far as the next closest rotation player is at 21%. We get a bargain price on Young as well, he was $200 cheaper last night in Utah and that was the cheapest he has been all season.
Cam Reddish – ($4,600)
His minutes are about as safe right now as they will ever be. With Bogdanovic and Gallinari out again minutes at wing for the Hawks aren’t as hard to come by. You wouldn’t see that in his last two games both were massive blowouts. Three games ago is when Bogdanovic got hurt and Reddish saw his season high 34 minutes in that game. A usage above 24% in two out of the three games without Bogdanovic is also something to note for Reddish. A fantastic matchup here as well as Portland is bad defensively and has surrendered the fifth most fantasy points to shooting guards. Let’s not forget they just lost their rim protector in Nurkic.
Solomon Hill – ($3,600)
In the near three games without Bogdanovic, Hill has seemed to benefit some with minutes as he has seen over 20 minutes in three straight games now. He is likely to matchup with Carmelo and see his defense so I don’t mind this as a cheap punt play.
Portland
CJ McCollum – ($8,300)
Nurkic is out with a significant wrist injury and McCollum sees the main usage benefit as gets a bump of 2.3% putting his total at 31.4%. That usage is more than Lillard’s and without Nurkic I think it hurts Dame more in the pick and roll game. In close games Portland rolls their stars out heavy. We saw that recently as CJ logged 39 and 43 minutes before the Indiana game. With his lowest fantasy output of 33 points McCollum really has yet to bust at this price. This game opened at 236 so a fast-high scoring game always benefits McCollum and his shooting.
Enes Kanter – ($5,600)
In the absence of his fellow big man Kanter should take over the starting roll in Portland. Kanter has seen over twenty minutes of playing time in just four games this season. He has scored over 23 fantasy points in all those games making it clear to see if he gets the minutes he should produce. His usage rate is near 20% on the season as well so its not like he isn’t involved offensively. His ownership could be chalky, and Harry Giles could be a sneaky play at a much cheaper price. Giles isn’t likely to see as much Capela defense either.
NBA GPP Picks 1/16
76ers vs Grizzlies
Tobias Harris – 19.5 points – More – He see’s the big usage increase without Embiid. Even if Embiid played this amount of points seems low. Regardless Harris should see more and I feel like this number should be more like 23.5 to 24.5.
Dillon Brooks – 15.5 points – More – I like this more if Morant sits a lot more. I think Brooks and the Memphis offense benefits with Morant so I would still take the more if Morant plays. Brooks has the second highest usage on the Grizzlies behind only Morant.
Closing NBA GPP Picks 1/16
Thank you for reading my article NBA GPP Picks 1/16. We have a nice four game slate that only has one player priced above 9K. We are in wait and see mode on the Heat pending who plays. Join myself and the rest of the WinDaily staff in the Discord Chat rooms to keep up with all breaking news and how to handle it. Ja Morant could return tonight as well which is something to watch. Check out the NFL section along with MMA for this action-packed Saturday of sports. We have NFL playoff Saturday along with UFC’s return to ABC from fight island in Abu Dhabi. Set your lineups or place your bets and good luck to you on this sport filled Saturday!
